This is a short sitrep which will also serve as an open thread, on the situation right now. (I will also update the paragraphs on recognition and sanctions, as the situation becomes clear). Amarynth for the Saker Blog.
The new recognition agreements between Russia recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk as independant countries, are now fully ratified by the Russian parliament and this was unanimous.
The line of contact is relatively quiet so far. There is sporadic firing but since 9 hours, very little of it. Patrick Lancaster from the Ukraine War Report reports that 3 civilians were killed in a roadside IED near Donetsk just after Russia recognized the #DPR and #LPR. He and some fellow journos also came under fire. Russian troops deployed very quickly to carry out Putin’s specific order “to establish peace”.
The actual borders – there still seems to be some confusion and today will bring clarity. The best that I’ve seen is Peskov’s clarification: “DPR and LPR are recognized as independent ‘within the boundaries in which they were proclaimed and exist’.
Rats scurrying:
- Blinken moved all US embassy staff to Poland. He says they will regularly return to continue diplomatic work in Lviv. Poland raised cyberthreat regime from 1/4 to 3/4.
- Biden said the recognition of the two Republics threatens US security.
- The Biden Administration urged President Zelensky to move to Lviv, western Ukraine – ABC.
- US Deputy National Security Advisor Finer says all evidence confirms that Russia is now heading for military action and will not take the diplomatic path.
Nebenzia, at the UNSC briefing:
“Many of our colleagues are willing to attest that the Minsk Agreements are dead, which is not true. Kiev still has to implement them. We (Russia) remain open for a diplomatic solution, but we will not allow for another bloodbath in Donbas.”
and
“The main task of our decision [on the recognition of independence] was to preserve and protect these lives [of people in Donbass]. This is more important than all your threats.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAMfmwMp2yk
Ukrainian representative. to the UN, Kyslytsya says Ukraine’s one goal is peace and the problem of Donbass must be solved through the Minsk agreements.
Zelensky, the monkey with a hand grenade according to Russian Parliament member Andrei Lugovoy, squeaked all day long. “We don’t have time for history lessons”, he says, while calling for emergency meetings with everyone. The most comical comment was that he is going to break diplomatic relations with Russia. There will be no war he says, while also saying that he might institute martial law. Enough of Zelensky!
A moment of sanity from Dogu Perincek, Secretary General of the Turkish Vatan (“Motherland”) Party: “We see that a new world order is being created. The Atlantic block is left behind, the world is entering the Asian one. The US idea of a unipolar world has failed.”
Another moment of sanity: “Putin’s decision on Donbass completely changes the world order.” Serbian President Vučić.
And insanity:
MFA Russia – Zakharova: The letter by US Representative to the Office of the @UN in Geneva to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights @mbachelet on the “first steps” to be taken by Russian authorities after an “inevitable” military invasion of Ukraine has puzzled us.
China: State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier in the day, expounding China’s stance and generally repeating that security concerns are now urgent and must be resolved through negotiation. But that is not all. During the phone call, Wang also urged the US side to fulfill a series of promises that US President Joe Biden has made and avoid sending wrong signals on containing China by its new version of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and by its provocations on the Taiwan question else there will be confrontation with Beijing. (Spectacular Pain Dial Moment by digging in the knife)
The all important recognition: The Zone B stalwarts are right in there.
The Houthis, who understand clearly what it means to live under war conditions, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Syria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia are ready to recognize the new-born twins.
TODAY is SANCTIONS DAY
- The list starts with Germany suspending the Nord Stream 2 certification (pending yet another report).
- US – a ban on investments in the DPR and LPR, as well as any import of the region’s goods, services, or technology to the United States. America is also banned from exporting anything to the republics. Furthermore, Washington has made it completely illegal for any American citizens to conduct financial transactions with the breakaway states, and it has also frozen DPR and LPR assets currently in US banks. From now on, any individual involved in business or politics on the territory of the newly recognized republics may be subject to personal sanctions from the US.
- UK sanctions 5 Russian banks and 3 Russian “high net worth individuals”. Rossiya Bank, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and Black Sea Bank, were named as part of the “first tranche” of the UK government’s response. Alongside the financial institutions, three “very high net worth individuals,” Gennady Timchenko, Igor Rotenberg and Boris Rotenberg, have had their UK assets frozen.
- EU – won’t recognize Russian passports issued to citizens from DPR and LPR.
More will be incoming.
“EU – won’t recognize Russian passports issued to citizens from DPR and LPR.”
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐏𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐏𝐑 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐩𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠.
For the past 7 years, the EU has not recognised university diplomas from these areas. Now, they are doubling down.
Maybe the Russians should stop overflights by countries that try that one!
@ amarynth on February 22, 2022 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT
“Borders Clarification.
Please consult the map on this tweet:..”
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Overall, it is too early to tell what the borders will be. First question Saker posed yesterday was about the borders, and his suspicion was that Russia “will keep a flou artistique” around the issue, which could be used in transitionally, but the sooner borders are defined, the better, otherwise Donbass will find no peace, even under Russian protection.
The border issue can be defined administratively, by a decree of the new twins, which will define the boundaries, communicate the resolution to 404, and enforce the decree with Russian arms. A de facto path can also resolve the issue, rolling back 404 army back to the original boundaries defined by the republics when they declared their independence.
Either way will require a buffer zone several kilometers deep, to keep the neo-Nazis at a distance.
RT published an article on the border conundrum too, which, as Saker pointed out, leaves the matter as blurred and vague as possible. First, it states the borders will be “in line where local leaders exercise authority and jurisdiction.” For now, “authority” has been reduced to a narrow swath of territory, most of Donbass is occupied by 404, and if by “jurisdiction” they mean the original boundaries defined when the twin new republics declared their independence, then “authority” and “jurisdiction” are at a contradiction.
Peskov then just added to the vagueness, stating the boundaries will be “within the parameters they declared themselves…when the two republics were proclaimed,” declining to provide further info. Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko further stated that “Moscow will respect the borders as local leaders exercise authority and jurisdiction,” falling back into what is, for now, a contradiction in terms.
As Saker keeps on warning, we do not have all the elements to reach solid conclusions, or as he put it,
“I still have a few questions to which I did not get a reply yet:.”
We will have to wait and see…in the meantime, no matter the borders, there is a guarantee people at Donbass will have a saf-er country than before. That is enough for now.
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https://www.rt.com/russia/550239-donbass-republics-define-borders/
Kremlin reveals how borders of Donbass republics will be defined
“Russia will acknowledge the borders of the two breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in line with where local leaders exercise authority and jurisdiction, the Kremlin has announced, after Moscow formally recognized the two regions as independent states. At present, Ukrainian forces control large swaths of the territory to which the separatist leaders lay claim.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, explained that Moscow would support the Donbass republics in their territorial dispute. That meant acknowledging them “within the parameters they declared themselves,” he said. He added that this would be dependent on “when the two republics were proclaimed,” but declined to provide further information.
Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko later added that Moscow will respect the borders as local leaders exercise authority and jurisdiction…”
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Lone Wolf
The blind receive sight, the lame walk, those who have leprosy are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, and the good news is proclaimed to the poor.
Matthew 11:5
OSCE confirmed the violation of international humanitarian law norms by the Ukrainian army after a heavy shelling of apartment blocks – after years of being mostly blind and deaf.
https://ria.ru/20220222/obse-1774258135.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop
LOL Guys, as for Nord Stream 2, the “halting” of it is a complete canard. First of all, the pipeline was already completed last year. It is 100% complete, DONE. Yet it is not yet pumping gas, because it is already ‘HALTED’. This changes nothing. They didn’t actually “halt” anything. It’s not like the process of “certification” is some type of long, labyrinthine process. No, it’s just a few people signing some paperwork. Which means that they have already “halted” the NS2 since last year, so Scholz’s announcement actually changes nothing nor adds anything new. They literally took no action whatsoever.
Ooooh! Sanctions. Putin and Lavrov must be trembling in their boots. Its disgusting to
listen to the UK talk so tough, when the world knows that if it wasn’t a U$ lapdog, it would
sit in the corner in silence.
The thing stupid Anglos don’t realize is, the MORE they de-integrate Russia from the Western system and Western economies, the LESS that any form of ‘sanctions’ actually does. The Anglo world has spent the past 10 years removing Russia from the Western banking system etc as much as possible, but that has neutered their own capability to have any form of harmful sanctions because if you’ve already booted all Russian entities from the Western banking institutions etc anyway, then ‘sanctioning’ them will do absolutely nothing since the ‘sanctions’ are typically things like wittholding their $$$ in Western banks etc. So really, the whole ‘Sanctions’ red herring is a joke. Same goes for NS2 which was already halted last year when it was completed so nothing new has happened.
a look at the OSCE
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/21/the-stunted-role-of-the-osce/
I wonder what plans Russia has how to deal with it??
“Ukrainian troop command and control systems are already integrated with NATO. This means, command of Ukrainian armed forces & even separate formations & units can be directly exercised from NATO Hqs.
“The United States and NATO have already begun shamelessly exploiting Ukrainian territory as a theater of potential military operations The activity of Ukrainian armed forces & special services is directed by foreign advisers. We know well about that.
“Military contingents of NATO states have been present actually constantly on territory of Ukraine under various pretexts in recent years. The United States and NATO have already begun shamelessly exploiting Ukrainian territory as a theater of potential military operations…
“After the US’ withdrawal from the treaty on shorter-and intermediate-range missiles, Pentagon is openly developing a range of ground-based offensive arms, including ballistic missiles capable of reaching goals at a distance of 5,500 kms & more.
“If such systems are deployed in Ukraine, they will be able to hit targets in entire European Russia… ballistic missiles from Kharkov will reach Moscow in 7-8 mts & it will take 4-5 mts for hypersonic. It’s like a knife at the throat.”
Hi Andrei,
It’s time to play “Move It on Over” by George Thorogood. The Big Dog’s movin in …
BD
Btw, only a year ago there was a major invasion of a sovereign state by a western backed state of Azerbaijan. The country proceeded to violently reclaim and annex a vast amount of sovereign Armenian land. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war
Does anyone recall anyone in the Western “Democracies” or media saying anything about this? Was this “the darkest days of Europe”, or was this “plunging the world into darkness” etc etc? How come there was not a peep from the self-righteous bastions of Democracy in Europe about a major sovereign nation being invaded and having its land violently seized?
This appears to be a declaration of a return to socialism days of 1825-1917 in the ukraine.
Now that capitalism is real in name only, as we are moving in the direction of socialism as each yearly deficit goes up, why not declare it there while we live it here.
And too add to this, and it’s only an educated guess. The industrial revolution occurred right at the ending of this socialism, could the industrialists have (forever?) poisoned the land, and now the answer, after decades of soil abuse, comes riding in on a white horse to save the lands day.
People have been living (or trying too) on this land since the 800”s, so to see an old organic solution to a new industrial problem is not hard to imagine here.
Only question is how far and wide has the damage gone.
How real are the sanctions actually? I mean, US is still buying Russian rocket engines, every multinational company that means something relies heavily in its EMEA sectors on revenues from Russia. So in the end, is it just publicity stunt or it really hurts? If really all economic ties get severed who’d hurt more?
Sanctions work in two directions, they’re real. And hurt AZE (zone a) see proverbial tar baby…
https://www.asiasociety.org/files/Stickfast-Motif.pdf
Sanction only help for Russian and Chinese and zone B generally manufacturing and economic power…stupid is as stupid does…
Maybe excellent intellectual leader nazi junta desire to burn “Rome”…
He just got’in hard:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LIYWeLpCes