Following the unilateral ceasefires of the Israelis and Hamas, it appears that the war in Gaza is over, at least for a (probably short) while, and this begs the question: who won? Predictably, both sides claim victory. Most pundits seem to lean towards saying that Israel won a victory, but not a complete one. Some say that Hamas fought better than expected and that it deserves high praise for not letting the Israelis into the urban areas of Gaza. I think that there are at least two very different levels in which what happened in Gaza needs to be appraised, a tactical one and a strategic one.
TACTICAL SCORECARD
One the tactical level, the reality is that we still do not know what really happened. Yes, we know that the Israelis report very few casualties and that Hamas claims that Israelis figures under-report the real casualties. I personally do not believe that the Israelis figures are fake, Israel is just not the kind of society where this can be done, at least not in meaningful numbers. So I accept the Israeli figures and they are very low: 13. In contrast, there have been 1300+ Palestinians killed (and another 5300+ wounded). That’s a 1:100 kill ratio. What does this figure show? Only one thing:
The Israelis never really fought Hamas on the ground.
In fact, reporters on the ground repeatedly reported the following: the Israelis moved in at night and back out at daybreak. This bizarre tactic could only have one goal: to put pressure on Hamas without really engaging it. No real commander would ever give up all the ground his forces took in bloody combats at night each morning only to repeat the very same attack the next evening. Unless, of course, no “bloody combat” ever took place. So let me restate this here:
The Israelis never really fought Hamas on the ground.
So all that talk about the Israelis or Hamas having shown excellent combat skills is nonsense. The only ‘combat’ which took place was the Israelis shooting at Gaza from afar (air, sea, artillery, etc.) and the Palestinians hunkering down and trying to avoid the incoming fire. Only in that narrow sense did both sides perform rather well: the Israelis inflicted an immense wave of terror and suffering on the entire population of Gaza while the Palestinians managed to survive and fight to the very last day. The fact is that this entire war was a war of nerves. The Israelis wanted to “shock and awe” the Palestinians into submission and the fact is that they failed: Hamas is still defiant and in control of Gaza. Was breaking down Hamas really an Israeli objective? Probably not, not even the Israelis are that dumb. Did the Israelis really think they would get Shalit out? Again, probably not. So what was their objective?
1) Showing the Palestinians that the Israelis are still the ruthless killers they have always been and thereby restoring not their “deterrence capability” but their *terrorism capability*. This objective was clearly met: the Israelis have clearly proven to themselves, the Palestinians and the rest of the world that they are the ultimate terrorist state, the unrepentant Ueber-terrorist on the planet.
2) Showing the rest of the world that they have only contempt and hatred for what is otherwise known as “norms of civilized behavior” and international law in general. This explains the repeated attacks on ambulances, the shelling of mosques, schools, universities, UN compounds, etc. This objective was also clearly met: nobody in his right mind can seriously doubt that the Israelis have anything but hateful contempt for any legal or moral norm of civilized behavior.
3) The attack on Gaza was also a collective exercise in psychotherapy. After being abjectly humiliated by about 1000 Hezbollah operators in 2006, Olmert, the IDF and the Israeli general public badly needed to restore their self-image as the “superior race” in the Middle-East. That objective was also brilliantly met: what better than the kill ratio of 1:100 can restore the self image of a hate filled racist and convince him of his superiority?
Again, all these objectives were met and, what is crucial, were met without committing the huge mistake of actually trying to engage the Palestinian resistance on the ground. That is, I would argue, the biggest Israeli success: not having done something amazingly dumb. Hamas is not the party which initiated this war so one cannot really speak of “Hamas objectives” in this war. If anybody still thinks that Hamas was the party which started this war by firing Qassam rockets into Sderot, let me remind you here that it was Israel which committed the fist act of war by imposing a total blockade on Gaza (a blockade is legally an act of war). Still, by keeping the IDF confined to the non urbanized area of Gaza Hamas clearly succeeded in maintaining its deterrent capability. Bottom line: Hamas did not loose, nor did it accept some kind of idiotic “peace plan” offered by outside parties. Still, Hamas completely failed at inflicting any meaningful damage on the Israelis.
This is how I would score the tactical performance of the parties:
Israel: B+
Hamas: B-
STRATEGIC SCORECARD
True to themselves, the Israelis achieved somewhat of a tactical success at the price of a strategic disaster. Operation Cast Lead undoubtedly made things immensely worse for Israel in almost every imaginable aspect:
1) Even before the war on Gaza Israel was the most hated country on earth (which, considering that this is the last openly racist country on the planet, should surprise nobody). Now this hatred has increased by an order of magnitude. This is particularly noticeable among the Left and Left-leaning parties and movement.
2) The war on Gaza was also highly damaging to all the allies of Israel. For example, Mubarak, Sarkozy, Abbas and many others were gradually becoming desperate to find some kind of way to stop the war because their otherwise sycophantic attitude towards the “Jewish state” put them in an extremely difficult position with their own public opinion. Even in the USA and Turkey the disgust with Israel reached new heights. Sure, the war has now stopped, at least for a while, but nobody seriously doubts that all these politicians owe their power to the support of the US Empire and Zionist Lobby rather than to the fact that they represent the policies desired by their public opinions.
3) To make thing worse for Israel, I predict that there will now be a wave of legal attempts to bring the Israeli government and army officials to trial for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, etc. Sure, the Zionist lobbies and their ironclad control of most Western governments and of all the corporate press will mostly protect Israeli officials from such legal actions, but since the Zionist lobbies do *not* control all the courts worldwide, not even in the USA, the embarrassment generated by the constant cat and mouse game played between human right activists and Israeli officials will be immense. After all, it is hard to constantly speak about being “the only democracy in the Middle-East” and “sharing Western values” while constantly dodging international arrest warrants for war crimes and genocide.
4) There is no doubt possible that the war on Gaza made any possibility for a so-called “two state solution” even more remote than before. As Olmert (correctly) explained in 2007, if the “two state solution” fails Israel will be faced with an Apartheid like struggle. This is now exactly the dynamic which is taking place. All the tactical efforts of Israel (the Wall, the blockade and war on Gaza, the reneging on all the accords and pledges, etc.) have achieved only one thing: they have made a two state solution impossible. That leaves the Israelis only two options: either expel of kill the vast majority of Palestinians or live with them in one state. The former not being possible, the latter is inevitable and that, in turns, means giving up the sick dream nightmare of the ethnically pure “Jewish state”.
5) In contrast to Israel, Hamas has achieved a huge strategic victory in this war. For the first time the Palestinians themselves managed to survive and ride out a full scale Israeli assault. Hamas itself, in stark contrast to Fatah, has proven that it is a real resistance movement. Sure, Hamas is not Hezbollah, not by a long long shot, but Hamas is not Fatah or the bad old PLO either. The Hamas leadership which has a long history of rather myopic decisions has this time managed to stay firm and it has immensely increased its worldwide prestige. There is still plenty of things which are wrong with Hamas, but it would be unfair and unreasonable to expect Hamas to grow into a Hezbollah like force overnight. Politics is the science of the possible and once the Israelis attacked Gaza there is very little the Hamas foot soldiers or leaders could have done much better than what they actually did.
This is how I would score the strategic performance of the parties:
Israel: F
Hamas: A-
In conclusion I want to point out one area in which Hamas performance can only be called absolutely disastrous: public relations. Hamas still does not have a real website to present its information in English in a systematic and timely fashion. During this war, Hamieh, Meshaal and other Hamas officials made statements which were never translated in full or published on the web. The Ezzedine al Qassam brigades have a forum, but it is run by incompetent people who instead of providing timely and relevant information basically are content to have people chat about this and that. Even worse, Hamas provided grossly misleading information about IDF soliders made prisoners, about destroyed Merkavas, and killed Israeli soldiers. All this painfully reminds me of Saddam’s Minister of Information “comical Ali” (Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf). The sad fact is that Ha’aretz provided far more interesting and correct information that any and all the pro-Hamas outlets out there. In terms of public information Hamas deserves a shameful F for its absolutely inadequate performance.
That’s pretty much sums up my impressions about this war. Since we simply don’t know much about what really happened I am not insisting that any of the above is correct. I might have overlooked or misunderstood a lot so, please, drop by and let me know what you think. There are plenty among you, my readers, which know much more than I do about all this and I ask you to please share your insights with me and the rest of us.
The Saker
PS: I have just seen an article by Gideon Levy in Ha’aretz who, to my surprise, pretty much seems to agree with most of my analysis of this war though, of course, he casts his views in softer terms. Check it out, it makes, I think, for a rather good reading.
One unintented blunder the Israel committed was to encourage the press, (fringe press though it may be) was to generate articles that
clearly laid the cards on the table for many knee jerk Conservatives to see, in bold relief, for the first time. Like
Another War, Another Defeat
John J. Mearsheimer
January 19, 2009
http://www.amconmag.com/article/2009/jan/26/00006/
I myself had heated discussions with Christians on the Right, and the came away, if not agreeing, at least reflective, for the first time. This (what do you expect them to do, being pelted with rockets) argument is their first response, (even a Catholic Priest I know), but for the first time, some efficient summary of the Israel plays is laid on the table.
Here is the dance they do-
(Truce, Israel Does a few targeted Assinations in Gaza or the West Bank, Provoking the reliable effete rocket response, -(I love it what a plan comes together- like George Pepard on the A team used to say) Israel gets to pound the hell out of the Gaza or whoever their target is at the moment, horrified that Palistinians want to drive Israel into the sea.
The real breakthrought though, is a real discussion of what exactly the broad outlines of a “solution” might look like from the Israeli point of view. 2 state? They retreat to the green line? give up the settlement momement, or 1 state, admit 5 million new arab Israeli citizens, and the Zionest dream is over. Which one does the Israeli /American Zionist want? It becomes clear that what they want is is all of Greater Israel only for the Jews, and the little Kabuki dance Israel does to provoke a response, this is their answer. Uterly Crush Palistinians, reducing them to a tiny remanent in concrete walled off reservations, humbled, living like beggers in their own country. That’s the end game- the Strategy. The rest is tactics.
A kill ratio of 100:1 sounds (and is) horrific, but is it really all that unusual when a guerrilla force meets an overwhelmingly superior modern army? Also, there are reports that the Palestinian toll was so high partly because the IDF was under strict orders to minimise their own casualties at ALL costs.
@Irish Eyes: a kill ratio of 1:100 is not something unheard of in a regular theater of war where a modern army is pitted aganist a much weaker, almost improvised enemy. But this does not apply here. What does NOT happen is a 1:100 kill ratio inside a urban area unless, of course, you do it the IDF way and just used only bombs, artillery and missiles. What I am saying that if the IDF had attempted to fight Hamas in the urban environment with ground forces (and these are the ONLY forces which can actually hold ground) then the kill ratio would have *dramatically* changed towards 1:10 or even 1:1 depending on many variables. You have to keep in mind that as soon as you enter a densely urbanized area your means of fire support are dramatically reduced. Ideall, you cannot bomb closer than 1km to your own troops. Of course, in real war, aircraft provide fire support MUCH closer, down to 100m, but that is a great risk of friendly fire. The same goes for artillery. So when you go inside a city you are talking about the kind of combat which reminds one of World War II: infantry with assault rifles, machine guns, rocket propelled grenades, etc. supported by some armor (mostly IFVs and a few tanks), mines, ambushes, sniper fire, etc. In such circumstances, Hamas would still have been the weaker side, but not dramatically so.
This is why a kill ratio of 1:100 shows that this never happened.
HTH, kind regards,
The Saker
Thanks for your response. I agree with you, a 100:1 ratio can ONLY mean that the IDF did not engage Hamas at anything like close quarters. One more reason why the whole sorry affair was a monumental exercise in stupidly (and so much else besides)and once again proves that, as the Americans might say, the IDF ain’t all that.
Here’s a good piece by Stephen Walt of Mearsheimer and Walt fame:
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/01/17/the_myth_of_israels_strategic_genius
@irish Eyes: yes, both Mearsheimer and Walt have written good critical analyses of what all this useless butchery really means. I am particularly happy that Walt actually took on the canard about the “smart Israelis”. I have been clamoring for YEARS that Israelis are amazingly stupid and incompetant (no such thing as a smart racist anyway) and if feels rather good not to be alone anymore :-))
Really, for years my statements about how stupid the Israelis really are have been met with polite silence since even people who would be otherwise rather sypathetic to my views believed that, while definitely evil, the Israelis were are least crafty, cunning little bastards. Well, guess what?! They ain’t! Never have be so smart in the past either.
With Walt’s piece I really feel somewhat vindicated…
Kind regards,
The Saker
You have used OLP instead of PLO, is this intended or a mistake?
@anonymous: mistake. I am more used to referring to the PLO by it’s French acronym OLP. Thanks for catching this. I will correct this ASAP.
I generally agree with your analysis, except comparing Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Sure, Hamas is not Hezbollah,”
I would say: Gaza is not South Lebanon.
You may (As the Angry Arab did) compare Fath/PLO with Hezbollah because both fought in south Lebanan.
Hezbollah fought having open borders with Sunni and Christian areas, and with Syria. While Hamas was fighting with no strategic depth. Ramadan Abdullal Shallah was right in Saying that the Palestinian stratigic depth was the other bedrom..
So within the given Gaza Geography, topography, neighbours, I would say its performance was outstanding even to Hezbollah.
“There is no doubt possible that the war on Gaza made any possibility for a so-called “two state solution” even more remote than before.”
Israel was never serious about the “2 state solution”. The Long term target was always: Transfer.
So I would correct your statement to read: “All the tactical efforts of Israel (the Wall, the blockade and war on Gaza,…. etc.)” failed to push Hamas and Gazans to Knock the wall again as your friend at PP suggested. I don’t think Mubarak/Abass are on the same page. Both Abbas and Mubarak are aware that Taransfer is the real target, instead of supporting the resistance, both used the seige to force Hamas to bow and recognoze Israel. However, Mubarak considered that ten thousands of cazans may flee, that he can’t shot them all, so TENTs were ready on the other side.
Moreover, you ignored the Israeli elections as one main factor in both starting the war and ending it.
@Uprooted Palestinian: first, I want to welcome you to my blog and thank you for sharing your comments with us. Now, turning to the substance of your comments I would say this: Gaza is not South Lebanon for all the reasons you correctly mention, but that does not mean that Gaza is inherently harder to defend. It is simply *different* to defend. In South Lebanon you have what the military calls “mixed terrain” whereas most of Gaza is urban terrain which calls for a different kind of defense, but which is also extremely hard to fight in for the attacking force. However, in this case, this makes no difference since the Israelis clearly did not fight Hamas, at least not seriously. This was, I would say, the correct decision for Israel to make because if they had entered Gaza itself they would have had skyrocketing casualty figures.
Was Israel ever serious about the Two State solution? It’s hard to guess, they sure did everything in their power to sabotage any kind of agreement with the Palestinians (the real ones, Hamas, not the Paletinian franchise of the Shin Bet known as “Fatah”). Still, Olmert’s warning about becoming drawn in into an anti-Apartheid struggle and the repeated warnings of Israeli demographic specialists must reflect I growing awareness that they are in a loosing battle. Yes, many Israelis still have sick fantasies about killing or transferring most Palestinians, but surely the marginally intelligent ones realize that this is utter nonsense.
Lastly, yes, I did ignore the election simply because I believe that there is no meaningful difference between the various Israeli politicians currently running for the top position. Sure, the election mattered a great deal for them and, yes, they did time this war to coincide with the elections, but that really is incidental to their more fundamental goals of butchering enough Palestinians.
Kind regards and welcome again,
The Saker
I know very well that Gaza is destroyed and many homes are under the rubble but i strongly believe that the resistance WON .
the Arab cowards (leaders we never chose) can not believe hamas fought this long ,since they fear Israel very much .
Hamas stood fighting for 23 days and was not ready to wave the white flag (when in 1967 3 Arab armies gave up after 6 days ) some analysts said they had expected the phone to ring in Egypt to ask for the cease fire (like Arafat did in lebanon ) but Hamas did not it was ready to fight longer.
Israel managed to committ war crimes and war against humanity and destroy Insfrastructure that did not belong to Hamas but to the people of Gaza (tribunal Ministry of education , Ministry of finance )American school, 3 UN schools , ambulances, 14 Paramedic , 400 Kids , thousands maimed children , civilian homes etc..et.. Lots of Pictures finally reached Europe and there were more demonstraitons on the streets than before .
Israel managed to hurt its reputation and showed an ugly image to the world . You could not justify its crimes .
Israel was planning to weaken Hamas it did not , it made it stronger and now ABbas is looking like the real quisling . watch the Arab press and you will understand how bad he looks . Hamas has become the group to trust and admire .
prisoner Shalit is still in prison
the Rockets never stopped during the 23 days of war . so all the Goals of Israel were never met except Destruction .
People Behind hamas now
saker
Did you see this site ?
No im not anti semitic at all , but i could not help noticing the similiarities . anyone who hates the comparison should really see these photos
Palestinian Holocaust
saker Im exactly like you , i call the UN ONU and PLO OLP . :)
@Fatima: yes, Hamas did better than most people expected, in particular the leadership which did not simply roll over during the first 48 hours. But did Hamas “win”? This is hard to tell since what will need to be compared is the situation before and after the way. First and foremost, what will happened with the blockade, will it be as bad, or even worse, than before?
This entire business is far from over, and only time will really show how Hamas will come out of this.
I would add that I strongly suspect that Hamas and the Israelis are quietly negotiating behind the scenes since neither side is interested in a resumption of hostilities.
If the blockade is still here, then Hamas will *HAVE* to resume the Qassam nad “Grad” attacks, if only as a sign of resistance and defiance. We will see if that happens, or if the parties make some secret deal to stop it.
Again, though Hamas did better than expected, I would not proclaim victory quite yet. Let’s wait a little and see.
Kind regards,
The Saker
The siege Has to END . it is injust and unfair , the people of gaza had to face such cruel sanctions and siege , just because they chose Hamas in their elections . (and now they despise fatah even more )
I was hoping , that those who call themselves Muslims, insist on lifting the siege , not based on their islamic faith , but based on Humanity. they disgust me (those they call Arab leaders )
saker
Thank you for your nice welcome..
Yes Hamas is not Hezbollah, mainly because Gaza is not South Lebanon, It is not only Topography. Gaza was Ocupied, and after pull out was always under seige.
@uprooted Palestinian: my welcome was sincere and heartfelt. Everybody is welcome here as long as topic are discussed in a sober and rational manner and no insults or personal attacks are used (I don’t want this blog to turn into the kind of insult filled cesspool Tony’s blog has sunk to). I know that you and I might disagree on various issues, but I also believe that a courteous and focused exchange of views between different opinions can be highly productive.
Gaza was Ocupied, and after pull out was always under seige.
True, but Hezbollah also had a very tough birth: right under the Israeli occupation and with Amal (from which it split off) quietly negototiating with Israel and its allies). If you have not read it, I highly reccommend Sheik Naim Qassem’s book about the history of Hezbollah, from its modest beginning under the Zionist occupation to its present day. A great book really, one of the most interesting ones on this topic.
Kind regards,
VS
“even people who would be otherwise rather sypathetic to my views believed that, while definitely evil, the Israelis were are least crafty, cunning little bastards.”
This has been my experience too, 100%. Whenever Israel has f****ed up entirely as in 2006, there are those who will say that it only seems like a failure to us dullards, but that the brilliant minds of the IDF have some master plan they will pull out of the hat. They never do. To any remotely objective observer who is not blinded by the myth of Israeli ‘genius’ it’s obvious that, their military and strategic thinking is, if anything, below average on an international scale. probably WAY below average. The lesson of 2006 – that Israel was by no means invincible – was perhaps the most important one.