by Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times
The annual Valdai Club meeting has always been positioned as absolutely essential when it comes to understanding the non-stop movement of geopolitical tectonic plates across Eurasia.
The ongoing 18th meeting in Sochi once again lives up to expectations. The overall theme is Global Shake-Up in the 21st Century: The Individual, Values, and the State. It expands on the theme of a “crumbling world” that Valdai had been analyzing since 2018: as the organizers highlight, this “has ceased to be a metaphor and turned into a palpable reality before our own eyes.”
Framing the discussions in Sochi, Valdai released two intriguing reports capable of offering prime food for thought especially for the Global South: The Age of the Pandemic: Year Two. The Future is Back, and History, to be Continued: The Utopia of a Diverse World.
The “Future is Back” concept essentially means that, after the Covid-19 shock, the notion of a linear one-sided future, complete with “progress” defined as globalized democracy enshrining the “end of history”, is dead and buried.
Globalization, as framed by neoliberalism, proved to be finite.
The slide towards medical totalitarianism and the trappings of a maximum security penitentiary are self-evident. As some Valdai participants noted, Foucault’s concept of “biopower” is no longer abstract philosophy.
The first session in Sochi went a long way in terms of framing our current predicament, starting with how the current – incandescent – US-China clash is unfolding.
Thomas Graham, from the Council on Foreign Relations – the conceptual matrix of the US establishment – recited the proverbial “indispensable nation” platitudes and how it’s “prepared to defend Taiwan”, even as he admitted “the Biden administration is still articulating its policy”.
It was up to Zhou Bo, from the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, to ask the hard questions: if the US and China are in competition, “how far are we from conflict?” He stressed “cooperation” instead of a slide into confrontation; yet China “will cooperate from a position of strength.”
Zhou Bo also clarified how Beijing is “not interested in bipolarity”, in terms of China “replacing the USSR during the Cold War”: after all, “China is not competing with the US elsewhere in the world.” Yet even as “the center of gravity is moving irreversibly to the East”, he admitted the current situation “is more dangerous than during the Cold War.”
Surveying the global chessboard, Former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim stressed “the absurdity of the UN Security Council deciding even matters related to the pandemic.” Amorim voiced one of the Global South’s key demands: the “need for a new institutional framework. The closer we get would be the G-20 – a little more African, a little less European.” This G-20 would command the authority the current UNSC lacks.
So Amorim had to tie it all to the centrality of inequality: his quip about “coming from a forgotten region”, Latin America, was very much on point. He also had to stress, “we didn’t want a Pax Americana”. A real, “concrete step” towards multipolarity would be “a big conference” which could be led by this “modified G-20.”
Togtbaatar Damdin, a Member of the Parliament of Mongolia, as he evoked “my great great great grandfather”, Genghis Khan, and how he built “that huge empire and called it Pax Mongolica”, focused on what matters to the here and now: “peaceful trade and economic integration in Greater Eurasia”. Damdin stressed, “we [Mongolians] no longer believe in war. It’s much more profitable to be involved in trade.”
A constant theme in this and other Valdai sessions has been Hybrid War and Shadow War, the new imperial instruments deployed against parts of Latin America, the “Greater Middle East” and Russia-China, in contrast to “a transparent system under the rule of law – and kept by international law”, as noted by Oksana Sinyavskaya from the Institute for Social Policy at the Higher School of Economics.
The discussions in Sochi essentially focused on the twilight of the current hegemonic socio-economic system – essentially neoliberalism; the crisis of alliance systems – as in the rot within NATO; and the toxic confluence of Hybrid War and the pandemic – stressing billions of people. An inevitable conclusion: the current dysfunctional international system in incapable of dealing with crisis management.
Enter rock star Lavrov
In the roundtable presenting the Valdai report on Year Two of the Age of Pandemic, Thomas Gomart, a director of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), stressed how hard it still is to analyze the geopolitics of data. With the Chinese privileging the concept of “ecological civilization”, questions of technological monitoring – as in how social credit is framed – are now on the forefront.
And as we delve deeper into “invisible wars” – Gomart’s own terminology – we face a toxic convergence of environmental degradation and hyper-concentration of digital platforms.
Gomart also made two crucial points that escape many analyses across the Global South: Washington has decided to remain the primus inter pares, and won’t abdicate from this position no matter what. This is happening even as Global Capital – heavily slanted towards the US – wants to find the new China.
That set the stage for Nelson Wong, the Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Center for RimPac Strategic and International Studies, to diplomatically shatter Divide and Rule tactics, and the US obsession with a zero-sum game. Wong stressed how China “does not hold a hostile attitude towards the US”; its aim is a “peaceful rise”.
But most significantly, Wong made sure that “the post-pandemic world will not be determined by the outcome of the confrontation between the US and China, or by splitting the world into two competing camps.” This hopeful perspective implies the Global South will eventually have its say – aligned with Amorim’s proposal of a tweaked G-20.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov could not but shine as the Valdai rock star, during a special Q%A session.
The Valdai discussions in Sochi significantly take place just as Moscow decided to suspend the work of its mission to NATO from November 1, and close the NATO information office in Moscow. Lavrov had already stressed that Russia no longer pretends that changes in the relationship with NATO are possible in the near future: from now on, if they want to talk, they should contact the Russian ambassador to Belgium.
So one of the questions at Sochi had to revolve on whether Moscow should expect NATO to take the first step to improve relations. Lavrov had, once again, to repeat the obvious: “Yes, we proceed from this. We have never started the deterioration of our relations with NATO, the European Union, or any other country in the West or any other region of the world. Everyone knows this story well. When Saakashvili in August 2008 gave the criminal order to bomb the city of Tskhinval and the positions of peacekeepers (including Russian ones), Russia insisted on convening the Russia-NATO Council to consider this situation. The then US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice categorically refused, although when creating the Russia-NATO Council, the Founding Act emphasized that it should act in any “weather”, especially when crisis situations occur. This is one example that marked the beginning of the current state of affairs between the US and NATO.”
So Russia has established the new game in (Atlanticist) town: we only talk to the masters, and ignore the lackeys. As for NATO now geared to create “capabilities” to be used against China, the Global South may collectively engage in rolls of laughter – considering the fresh NATO humiliation in Afghanistan.
With the inevitability of a EU more and more geoeconomically intertwined with China, dysfunctional NATO at best may keep on prowling as a bunch of zombie rabid dogs. Now that’s a Utopia theme for Valdai 2022.
The most important observation IMO is the fact that the Outlaw US Empire refuses to act as a normal, law abiding nation, and will continue to pursue its outlawry until it’s finally knocked off its horse. I do suggest reading the two linked papers since they provide the context for Pepe’s reporting.
they seem to depend on training their victims to accept they are inferior to JUSSA. As well as other unrealities – the more obviously wrong, the better.
this is kind of how CULTS function – the cult leader attempts to train his victims to blindly obey – he changes requests often and increasingly unbelievable/conflicting stories must be obeyed by the followers/victims.
Until the victims give up trying to make sense of what is happening and just give up and submit like domesticated animals.
JUSSA has done this for so long and to so many victims (thanks to force and to their loudest of all megaphones – Pedowood) – they lost their ability to do anything else as far as diplomacy.
So now they face intelligent people who are laughing in their fat stupid faces and have no intention to submit to the abusive, humiliating stupid sick bully….
The emperor does not know how to react when others stop pretending he has clothes, and he is too stupid and spoiled to do anything about it – so he doubles up pretending to expect others to see his invisible clothes…again and again…
It implies that a war at least involving conventional forces is highly likely given the fact that the US is desperate to stall China’s increasing capabilities in military tech. Russian threat assessments also predict such a situation to occur at least by 2036.
“If [NATO] wants to talk, they should contact the Russian ambassador to Belgium”.
I love the way Lavrov has relegated NATO to a regional organisation. Ie. No more high levels contact with Moscow, they can now talk to Russia’s local rep in Belgium…
Regarding the UNSC, it already has 15 members. It should probably be increased to 20, but simply incorporating the G20 countries would be foolish. G20 is a list of the top 20 GDP countries, but GDP is not an indicator of geo-political power but merely an indicator of the capacity to raise debt. (eg. EU is on it.) Any country with US financial sanctions will have lower GDP…
As for “the inevitability of EU more and more geoeconomically intertwined with China” (and Russia?) …still not seeing it…
@Sebian girl
“the inevitability of EU more and more geoeconomically with China” (and Russia?) …still not seeing it…
Probably because it is not meant to be seen. EU corporations that openly “intertwine” with China are pressed hardly by US on every level possible and riskvtheir mere existence. Having spineless politicians around doesn’t help either. So trade with China will be deliberately convoluted for a long time.
Zhou Bo também esclareceu como Pequim “não está interessada na bipolaridade”, em termos de China “substituindo a URSS durante a Guerra Fria”: afinal, “a China não está competindo com os EUA em outras partes do mundo”.
Não é verdade; A China compete com os EUA em todo o mundo. Aqui no Brasil é evidente e acirrada a competição entre ambos. Os EUA estão por trás do Golpe no Brasil! Bolsonaro é o Pior Presidente da História do Brasil e completamente submetido aos interesses dos EUA e da OTAN inclusive permitindo a presença de Tropas dos EUA e da OTAN para Exercícios Militares no Território Brasileiro. Mas a Rússia é Parceira Estratégica do Brasil. E a China atua com veemência em diversas instâncias. A China é o Maior Parceiro Comercial do Brasil! E o Embaixador da China no Brasil tem feito declarações muito enfáticas na defesa dos interesses da China.
*Recentemente o Consulado da China no Brasil foi alvo de um atentado.
Paz de Cristo Andrey!
Glória Eterna à Eterna Rússia!
Google translation,MOD:
Zhou Bo also clarified how Beijing “is not interested in bipolarity”, in terms of China “replacing the USSR during the Cold War”: after all, “China is not competing with the US in other parts of the world”.
Is not true; China competes with the US around the world. Here in Brazil the competition between both is evident and fierce. The US is behind the coup in Brazil! Bolsonaro is the Worst President in Brazilian History and completely submitted to US and NATO interests, including allowing the presence of US and NATO Troops for Military Exercises in the Brazilian Territory. But Russia is Brazil’s Strategic Partner. And China acts with vehemence in several instances. China is Brazil’s Largest Business Partner! And the Chinese Ambassador to Brazil has made very emphatic statements in defense of China’s interests.
*Recently the Chinese Consulate in Brazil was the target of an attack.
Peace of Christ Andrew!
Eternal Glory to Eternal Russia!
Excellent points you make, Serbian girl.
The final one is spot on. EU will always do the stupid thing and they already snapped off the big China deal.
In the coming months we shall see the EU in convulsions. NATO and US are unreliable, and a new Europe Army is in the cards with Germany and France leading the parade. The LNG they thought would come from the US is going to China. They are trying to play hardball against NS-2 and the Russians.
Shooting blanks is what they are doing. They are hardened ideologues with no solutions to any of their problems.
Yes, I agree a European Army is definitely in the cards.
Across Europe, fertiliser plants are halving their production due to the energy crisis which means there be food shortages & price inflation.
The EU leaders are indeed hardened ideologues. Well put
“…the notion of a linear one-sided future, complete with “progress” defined as globalized democracy enshrining the “end of history”, is dead and buried.
Globalization, as framed by neoliberalism, proved to be finite.”
“An inevitable conclusion: the current dysfunctional international system in incapable of dealing with crisis management.”
Both of these statements are wishful thinking. The global response to the pandemic _IS_ the advance of neoliberal globalization. If the pandemic didn’t exist, the globalists would have needed to invent it. It isn’t a coincidence that most Western nations seem as if they are reading from the same playbook of totalitarianism; they are.
So, the Valdai Club takes it for granted that the US Empire is rapidly declining and will soon be no more.
That is a refreshing attitude.
“The discussions in Sochi essentially focused on the twilight of the current hegemonic socio-economic system – essentially neoliberalism; the crisis of alliance systems – as in the rot within NATO; and the toxic confluence of Hybrid War and the pandemic – stressing billions of people.”
We like how Pepe synthesized what non-western nations are seeing. And they are correct.
But even behind the “twilight” world of the dying Hegemony, we are seeing incredible activity on Wall Street with large institutions scrambling for the last $$ they can squeeze out of the System.
In 2019, eleven years after “The Financial Collapse” of 07-08, the BIS in Switzerland officially sounded The Alarm: the shadowy forms of US (and some in the UK/EU) capitalist quarters had, once again caught up with their illegal profit-making. since 08-09.
Immediately, the Big Western Globalists sat down in Wyoming and hammered out a feasible way of getting out of this mess. Along with instituting Covid, they called on The FED to start churning out BILLIONS of Dollars, to shore up all the crimes these capitalists had done since 07/08. Result? Reduced foreign goods, food entered US ports. Inflation suddenly flared, millions of jobs were lost by US workers when businesses closed for good from Covid Restrictions.
The point of all this is as follows: we do hope Russia, China, Eurasian & Others are fully aware that right now, there’s a mad scramble by these Western Thieves of taking with them as many Billions of $$s they can steal BECAUSE, the US Ship IS GOING DOWN. Their urgent needs for greater greed, reigns supreme over and above maintaining their vice-grip on other nations ’round the world.