First, a shot bullet style news update from the Ukraine:
- New government in Kiev declared that Russia had deployed 6’000 soldiers to the Ukraine.
- A car with 400kg of TNT-equivalent explosives was intercepted a a checkpoint yesterday in Crimea. There is no word on the diver or possible passengers.
- Crimean authorities had decided to hold the referendum on the status of Crimea on March 30th, and not May 25th as originally decided.
- Gazprom is threatening to cancel the rebate on gas it had granted the Ukraine in December saying that the Ukraine had not paid on time.
- Authorities in Crimea have declared that nationalist insurgents had attempted to seize control of the building of the Internal Ministry building in Crimea. That assault was repelled by local militias, but there are casualties.
- There are reports of a number of APC intercepted during an attempt to enter the Crimean peninsula.
- The Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, declared that Kiev had attempted to nominate a nationalist insurgents as commander of the internal ministry (police) affairs forces in Crimea and that armed insurgents had attempted to seize control of local government buildings. He therefore appealed to Putin to help protect the Crimean Peninsula.
- Russia declared that it will act on Aksionov’s request.
- Telephone, Internet and cell-phone connections were re-established in Crimea (they had been cut by unknown people yesterday)
- The Russian Parliament and the heads of the various parties represented there adopted an appeal to President Putin to take action to protect Crimea.
- In Kiev, Iatseniuk has told his finance minister to contact his Russia counterpart to begin negotiations to financial issues.
- Iatseniuk also promised never to use force in the Crimean Peninsula.
- The self-style “acting President” of the Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, has declared that he will veto the recent bill of the insurgent-controlled Parliament in Kiev which has repealed the previous “law on languages” and that a new law will have to be adopted.
- Nationalists have taken control of an administration building in Kharkov. A mass rally around the building has arisen, clashes have been reported between the demonstrators and the nationalists in the building, one reporter has just reported that the crowd had given assault to the building.
- Obama appeared to made a special statement warning of a “price to pay” if Russia intervened militarily in the Ukraine.
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| Russian forces in Crimea |
What does all that mean? Can we discern a pattern? Do these events hint at what the various forces confronting each other might be doing. Let’s ask a few basic questions of common sense:
1) If all parties agreed never to use any violence in Crimea, and if the local people were given a free choice on the future of the Peninsula, which side would win this referendum – the nationalists of the Russian-speaking and pro-Russian majority? The answer is obvious – the pro-Russians would win.
2) If the pro-Russians are sure to win in any free and fair political contest, who is the party which would benefit from an escalation of violence in Crimea? The answer is obvious again: the Ukrainian nationalists?
3) Considering that a clear majority of the local population is pro-Russia and that there are plenty of Russian forces in Crimea, what would the Kremlin gain by sending in Russian military forces into Crimea? Again a obvious answer: nothing.
4) The insurgents in Kiev know that a clear majority of Crimeans is opposed to their rule, and Iatseniuk is trying to negotiate with Russia on economic issues, while Turchinov says that he will veto the repeal of the former law on languages, what could Kiev hope to achieve by sending in insurgent forces into Crimea? Nothing, of course, it would only make things worse.
and now a few more question I will not immediately answer:
5) Somebody cut off all communications (phone, Internet, cell-phones) out of Crimea yesterday; today is was restored. Who would gain from that and why? 6) Nobody disputes that some kind of unidentified but clearly professional and pro-Russian force suddenly took control of two airports in Crimea, only to later apologize and withdraw leaving just a few guards. What could have triggered such a move?
7) Russia has admitted that it had closed the airspace over Crimea overnight. Why would it do that?
8) While the 6’000 Russian paratroopers claimed by Kiev appears to be false, it is most likely that some kind of Russian force, supported by helicopters, was seen in operation yesterday. What could they have been doing?
What follows is only my interpretation and I might be 110% wrong. Still, this is how I connect the dots.
Some kind of attack on Crimea definitely happened yesterday and it was repelled. I don’t think that the attacking side was controlled by the new regime in Kiev as Iatseniuk and Turchinov had nothing to gain from such an action and much to lose. I think that the attacking side was a third party, most likely some kind of assault force of Ukrainian and/or Tatar nationalists organized and controlled by US special forces. I believe that this force tried cutting off the communication lines of the local authorities and attempted to storm the Internal Ministry building to seize control of the local police. The Russian military clearly believed that some kind of force would be sent to the Crimea by air and that triggered a move by the Russian to seize the airports and defend them by force if needed. When they saw that their move had been detected and preempted, the attacking force withdrew. The US was clearly worried enough about the Russian reaction to have Obama issue a public threat about a “price to pay” should Russia invade the Ukraine. As for the Russians, they are clearly incensed and key political figures have all expressed their demand that the Kremlin take action to protect Crimea. Both sides are clearly in shock over what took place last night.
What is going to happen next?
Frankly, I believe that unless Obama does something truly extraordinary, Russia will move additional military forces in over the week-end. The Kremlin simply cannot appear to ignore the plea from the local population. Considering how much the West has been lying to Russia over the past 30 years or so, it would take some truly extraordinary reassurances and guarantees from the USA to stop a Russian military move into Crimea. Russia will also take control over the Crimean airspace. As for the tiny and rusting Ukrainian navy force, nobody needs it, but as long as it sits tight and stays put, it will basically be ignored.
The US and EU reaction to that will be a truckload with of anti-Russians hysterics, followed by a boycott of some meetings and activities, and that’s about it. For Russia, this is even far more important that South Ossetia and Obama understands that, even if he will never acknowledge that publicly. The US is not going to war with Russia over Crimea. I think that the real message of Obama to Putin is “don’t do the same thing in the eastern Ukraine” (Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, etc.).
On the mid term, Crimea will vote to become an independent state within a Ukrainian Federation with the option to secede should the fascist regime remain in power in Kiev.
So what do you think? Does my (admittedly highly speculative) interpretation make sense or do you connect the dots differently?
Kind regards,
The Saker
Off topic but may interest you.
http://www.haaretz.com/mobile/1.577114
“the attacking side was a third party”
Would this be similar fiasco as Bay of Pigs ? CIA sponsored military action ?
If true, damned Yankies will never learn !
I would love to see the Russians withdraw all their money from UK and EU banks.
I would love to hear that when the West claimed it wanted to help the Syrian people (by sending them international brigades of djihadists from every corner of the world and every US/EU suburb), it just failed them, while then the Russians are called by Crimea to act, they simply do.
some footage of the assault: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr1wxqt_3So#t=74
Methodius from Galway
@Saker
What I haven’t heard explicitly mentioned anywhere – including your excellent analyses of the situation which I’ve followed including on your blog since it got messy end of last year, they gave me an absolute advantage over various stupid analyses like “Yanuk, strong dictator, will never let go and crack down hard” – is the “Sorcerer’s Apprentice problem” the current self-crowned group in Kiev are facing.
Let me explain: It seems that interim government came to power with the help of ruthless murderers, and my guess (obviously it’s hard from the internet where I sit to find a lot of evidence for that) is that the gun brandishing right-wing guys are heavily involved in it and bearing responsibility for the murders, and potentially even personally participating. They obviously have a right-wing agenda (kick em russians, negros, jews, … out) and removing the minority language from officialdom was their input. Now it’s a totally stupid idea and sure to backfire, so no-one in their right mind would have allowed such a law to pass. And the interim president is said to veto that law. However, this might lead to a problem that those bustling right-wing supporters that might feel their hard “work” is the reason Yanuk is gone, will now believe they’ve been ripped off. And you wouldn’t wanna argue with those guys, or better: their guns.
Honk
Must it have been US special forces — or might their orders have come instead from two renegade Middle Eastern countries?
http://lev-shlosberg.livejournal.com/764399.html
From zero hedge, I do not speak Russian, used google.
I’m beginning to think american foreign policy has no one leader or, Lord knows, concerted direction. It’s looking more and more like the Bush-era embedded Neo-Cons and various assorted powerful Neo-Liberals and rogue elements in and out of the military-industrial-homeland security complex are just “doing their thing”. And also wondering whether the attack yesterday was more than tangentially connected to whatever foreign policy we may have, or rather, at the behest of Israel, Saudia Arabia and the other usual suspects. In addition to plausible deniability if they’re “not ours”, how much real control have we got over them anyhow?
Brilliant strategic moves by Putin to remain on the high (legal and moral) road while helping keep chaos at bay in Ukraine. The February 21 agreement signed by Russia, the (now-)ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition (led directly or supported illegally by US and EU) has been completely ignored by all but Russia, contrary (as usual) to international law.
Imagine Obama asking Congress for authorisation before using military force.
Kudos to Mr. Putin, a true warrior for peace, but who knows how to weld a big stick when needed. Shame on the usual hypocrites in Washington and Brussels. Each time their lies are uncovered, they lose a few more supporters.
Long live freedom, peace and may the Ukrainians be safe.
Kiev might well find that the Right Sector goons are a Frankenstein’s monster that they can’t control.
Thanks for doing the heavy lifting in the coup guys and shooting those cops for us now will you please go away? You’re becoming an embarrassment to us!.
I feel sorry for all the civilians and idealistic students on Maidan sick of the corruption and dreaming of London and Berlin. They’re pawns.
As you know by now, Russian senators approved Mighty Vlad´s request to send in additional forces so yes, your scenario seem plausible and logic.
“the tiny and rusting Ukrainian navy force, nobody needs it, but as long as it sits tight and stays put, it will basically be ignored.”
According the news earlier today, those rushed out to sea when they observed what appears to be demonstrators or Crimean NDF closing in. Later the US imposed fascist regime in Kiev said “they where out defending Crimea”.
My take on that: They have just lost their home port and Sevastopol couldn’t care less. They are as you said, more of a joke than an obstacle. I dont think M.Vlad even react´s on the threats of the US house n*gger anymore. I mean look what Putin did after he ordered his Georgian dictator to execute Russian peace keepers.
Once again I have to pinch myself and ask why those guys (Yankee neo-cons for want of a better term) seemingly have nothing better to do.
Thank you, Saker, for giving me a perspective on what is happening along a crucial geopolitical fault line.
Once again I have to pinch myself and ask why those guys (Yankee neo-cons for want of a better term) seemingly have nothing better to do.
Thank you, Saker, for giving me a perspective on what is happening along a crucial geopolitical fault line.
I was wondering why they wanted to wait three months for the vote. It is good they have moved it up. I think Crimea is more or less safe now.
Hope it all goes well for the South and East too.
mindfriedo
Obama should go fuck himself. Let him continue his “threats”. Let him go back to tending America’s gay population and kissing the ass of Wall St.
GO MOTHER RUSSIA GO
I find your research to be technical and apolitical and so wonder why you have not mentioned that the Ukrainian ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev, said that 10 Russian transport aircraft… Il-76 planes arrived unexpectedly and were given permission to land, one after the other, at Gvardeiskoye air base, north of the regional capital, Simferopol. Astakhov said the people in the planes refused to identify themselves and waved off customs officials, saying they didn’t require their services, as reported by AP on Feb 28.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-aircraft-troops-move-into-crimea-take-control-of-airports-1.1708152.
curious canadian
@Anonymous:I find your research to be technical and apolitical and so wonder why you have not mentioned that the Ukrainian ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev, said that 10 Russian transport aircraft… Il-76 planes arrived unexpectedly and were given permission to land…
Yes, I saw that, the Ukies said that each one of them had 150 armed paratrooper on board. But I decided against mentioning because I figured that had really happened, Obama would have mentioned, but he didn’t. I think that this is a rumor like the one about a Russian Spetsnaz brigade (no less!) waiting in the woods near Kiev to attack the Maidan.
But I have that one stored in mind and if I can get some factual confirmation I will report about it.
Many thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
As a Swiss citizen who has tired of watching his country get raped by the US, the EU and the OECD, I have turned more and more pro-Russian. Perhaps it has something to do with RT, but mostly I have come to realize that Russia is one of the last hopes to resist this Anglo-American NWO. Ukraine seems to me to be a major front in the resistance to this western elite conspiracy to obtain hegemony over the entire planet.
However, as an equally strong believer in non-violence and the right of free association, I have major concerns about Putin and Russia marching into Ukraine out of desire for a new Romanov empire.
Why can’t Ukranians of Russian and Ukranian descent allow each other to associate with people of similar preferences without forcing them to pledge fealty to some foreign country or power? Why must all of Crimea choose between Ukraine and Russia? Why can’t local groups choose to remain independent of sociopathic and violently deranged thugs?
As a Swiss citizen who has tired of watching his country get raped by the US, the EU and the OECD, I have turned more and more pro-Russian. Perhaps it has something to do with RT, but mostly I have come to realize that Russia is one of the last hopes to resist this Anglo-American NWO. Ukraine seems to me to be a major front in the resistance to this western elite conspiracy to obtain hegemony over the entire planet.
However, as an equally strong believer in non-violence and the right of free association, I have major concerns about Putin and Russia marching into Ukraine out of desire for a new Romanov empire.
Why can’t Ukranians of Russian and Ukranian descent allow each other to associate with people of similar preferences without forcing them to pledge fealty to some foreign country or power? Why must all of Crimea choose between Ukraine and Russia? Why can’t local groups choose to remain independent of sociopathic and violently deranged thugs?
Hello Mr Saker, thanks again!
I agree with your analysis which seems very logical to me.
I have a question: why the westerner powers decided to openly defy Russia right now? I know the Olympics prevented a possible control over the Ucranian events but we have to consider that thousands of highly qualified and trained security personnel (who have brilliantly secured the games very close to the area), are now ready to immediately intervene.
Are the people who openly supported the coup – btw already out of control – so stupid?
Or are they just trying to create a big mess and a massive mayhem along the Russian border?
The finance-ruled EU is slowly collapsing (look at the Greek ‘laboratory rehearsal’ or at the hysterical threats addressed to Switzerland while another soft putsch just happened in Italy) and no one seems willing to prevent things to deteriorate.
(New World) Ordo ab chao, as usual?
Russia’s way of thinking and acting are much smarter, human, lucid and effective, as they already demonstrated in Syria.
Thanks again for your brilliant commitment and thanks to everyone who contribute here and there!
No pasaran!
Warm Regards
M.
Desperado,
I’m an American citizen sick of the same things you are and equally fond of non-violence and self-determination. However, I really don’t think Putin’s goals are quite the way you see them: economic power with a BRICS/Eurasian Community hegemony, yes, but I think he’s mostly a realist and as such, knows Russia needs a Black Sea port just for self-protection. After all, our fingers are everywhere and they’re not exactly benevolent. But I’m also wondering if perhaps your national history, geography and banking prowess might have blinded you a bit to the fact that Ukraine has never had quite such good fortune. I’m sure they wish they had!
Russia will regain Crimea, Donbass, and Kharkov. Obongo will allow this as it provides NATO with the opportunity to get bases in Western Ukraine.
@M.
Unbelievable, ain’t it? So much Hubris.
I agree, US and EU overplayed their hand (read latest post by Saker), independently of how strong actually is US/NATO’s hand overtly and covertly, it would be so far fetched to believe Russia would stand passive, what the hell were they thinking. Indeed, the only flimsy reationale remaining be the misplaced hope in “creative chaos” supposedly to keep Russia busy while US whatever, there or elsewhere… they are beyond any shread of connect with reality already, it boggles the mind.
This not to take anything for granted, those guys are absolutely lunatics and appear to attempt a last resort “chicken” move in a chess “game”.
Very perilous times.
“Russia needs a Black Sea port just for self-protection.”
Perhaps the Russian elites need a port on the black sea to protect themselves from the Anglo American and Zionist elites. But the Russian serfs don’t need a port on the black sea to protect themselves from the US slaves, they need protection from the Russian elites.
This actually holds true in Switzerland as well as our elites are busy selling out the Swiss Confederation to the Anglo American Central Banking. Perhaps I am as naive as you seem to think, but I think there is an opening for a populist leader who hasn’t sold out, if that is even possible.
<>
it is time to go pro.
you need the $$
we need you
you are simply passed the line already
THE WORLD NEEDS YOU.
Its time.
savagecapitalist@gmail.com
Dear Falcon,
I stumbled on your blog via the Information Clearing House website.
I read you analysis on the events in the Ukraine and Crimea and found it to be informative, objective and forward thinking. Your blog is bookmarked in my favorite list and I will be following your commentary from time to time.
Thanks for all you do,
PokeTheTruth