(Please consider the following as the superficial musings and impressions of an interested observer who openly admits that he does not know Egypt and does not pretend to understand what is happening there – me. The Saker)
Wow! The folks at Tahrir square have been there for two weeks, and yet judging by live shots from al-Jazeera the square is still full of people, and that is at night. I have to say that the people at Tahrir square are showing immense resilience. I cannot recall the last time when anti-government demonstrators showed such standing power.
The other thing amazing me is that there is exactly zero evidence so far that the revolt in Egypt is anything but totally spontaneous. Yeah, I know, some folks (Webster Tarpley) see the hand of the CIA in all that, but the problem with their theories is that they have exactly zero evidence supporting them. They also make little logical sense, IMHO.
Not only that, but 2 weeks after the beginning of the Egyptian revolt, there is absolutely nobody out there capable of truly explaining what is going on, much less so predicting where all this will end. In fact, the most knowledgeable folks openly admit that they have no idea where all this is heading.
The events in Egypt seem to be specially made to illustrate the old proverb that “those who speak don’t know, and those who know, don’t speak”.
In a world in which 99.999% of “spontaneous” events are carefully staged and manufactured it is quite amazing to look the developments in Egypt.
The so-called ‘negotiations’ between the regime and the opposition are, so far, totally empty window-dressing – on this the entire opposition agrees.
Another thing which I saw on al-Jazeera is that Copts were clearly present on Tahrir square. Unlike other, I am not so surprised. Not only has the MB declared many times that is supports democracy and condemns violence, but this is the country where Muslims surrounded Christians churches as human shields to make it possible for Christians to safely celebrate Christmas according to the Orthodox Church calendar. Add to this the way the Mubarak regime systematically discriminated against Copts in a lame attempt to bolster its “Islamic” credentials and it is no surprise that Copts were standing side by side with Muslims on Tahrir square. Egyptian Christians have excellent reasons to fear the al-Qaeda type and equally good reasons to fear the Mubarak regime, but I see no evidence that they have any reasons to fear the mainstream MB.
Your thoughts?
There is definitely one accomplishment the movement has achieved that will very hard for the government to take back later. That is the public is no longer afraid to protest. In the future, the government, ANY government cannot assume it can do what it wants without public opposition.
That alone is a serious accomplishment and probably more important than anything else.
Some other accomplishments are notable, but not nearly as important. Getting rid of the Gamal Mubarak crime syndicate would have been an impossible dream a month ago.
As for other accomplishments, they are worthless. The government reportadly has offered freedom of the pres in its negotiations with the oppo today, but then they go ahead and arrest Al Jazeera corespondent, Ayman Mohyeldin.
@arrest Al Jazeera corespondent, Ayman Mohyeldin
I really like this guy (-: and fellow American University grad :-) and I am not surprised one bit that they arrested him – that just goes to prove how stupid they really are.
I agree this was spontaneous but people were probably organising and debating among themselves for years and that was why they were able to come together when the spark finally ignited the rising.
Small revolutionary parties are almost always penetrated by the security police. The early Bolsheviks were riddled with Tsarist agents and Lenin said in 1916 I think that he wouldn’t see the revolution in his lifetime. But all the planning and organising in the wilderness bore fruit when the time came. Not that I’m a fan of the Bolsheviks but the analogy holds.
As for Webster Tarpley he’s entertaining and sometimes says good things but the fact is he’s a former La Roucheist and a bit of a nutter. I wouldn’t treat him as an authority on anything frankly.
@Robert: As for Webster Tarpley he’s entertaining and sometimes says good things but the fact is he’s a former La Roucheist and a bit of a nutter. I wouldn’t treat him as an authority on anything frankly.
Yeah, he is a smart guy, but he is definitely a nutter too. There was another guy on RT TV blaming the CIA too, but also without any corroborating facts. I don’t mind blaming the CIA for all sorts of things, but not in the absence of any evidence…
@Robert: now I remember the name of the guy: F. William Engdahl. FYI – Here is a sample of this thinking about this:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26106.html
Engdahl is another conspiracy-minded chronically omniscient ignoramus inveterately wanking from Frankfurt, Germany. Tarpley, Engdahl, Lamb and that Ahmadinejad worshipper from Pasadena you recently featured… there is a whole cottage industry of people out there who have correctly identified the Western powers as malevolent schemers, but that’s where their knowledge stops also: the rest is just fabulation. These are the types who in the past would have gone on and on about the arcane all-revealing messages built into Rennes le Chateau and the Cathedral at Chartres…
@Guthman:there is a whole cottage industry of people out there who have correctly identified the Western powers as malevolent schemers, but that’s where their knowledge stops also: the rest is just fabulation.
Sadly, this is absolutely true.
that Ahmadinejad worshipper from Pasadena you recently featured.
Which one is that?
Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich
(well you had the flu when you posted this, so…).
@Guthman: Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich
Tss tss, I consider Soraya a friend, and I deplore that you would refer to her as an “Ahmadinejad worshiper” but I can’t really bitch, now can I? I did ask for whom you meant…
[sigh, rolleyes]
Oh well, just try to be minimally courteous to ladies in the future, ok? Besides, I really don’t think that she worships the guy. She just happens to believe that 1) he is smart and that 2) he won the election. I happen to agree with her (even though I personally probably would have preferred a Laranjani victory). I mean – you don’t seriously believe that Mousavi won, right? Because if you do, then.. uh.. how shall I put it… let’s just say if you do believe that Ahmadinejad stole the election from Mousavi, then please ignore my words above and nevermind anything else I might say, ok? :-)
No I certainly don’t think Ahmedinejad lost the elections in 2009. (By accident I had actually watched a good part of a subtitled tv debate between Ahmedinejad and Moussavi before that election. And Ahmedinejad really wiped the floor with the dour Moussavi.) I do think though there is a whole demographic of kids who are very unhappy living under the thumb of the Iranian Theocracy (as I would be if I were a kid in Iran in 2011). It’s more than a matter of Gucci loafers. Other than that I don’t really differ with your political views on Iran.
And as far as the lady from Pasadena is concerned, may she please excuse my lack of politeness… enough said…
@Guthman: No I certainly don’t think Ahmedinejad lost the elections in 2009.
I did not think you did, but thanks for reassuring me
I do think though there is a whole demographic of kids who are very unhappy living under the thumb of the Iranian Theocracy
So do I
It’s more than a matter of Gucci loafers.
For some probably, but for most? I get an overwhelming feeling that what these folks want is loafers, iPod, MTV, etc. etc. The mere fact that Twitter and Facebook played such a role in these events does show a lot, does it not?
Other than that I don’t really differ with your political views on Iran.
Just FYI – I don’t really have deep political views about Iran. Ahmadinejad is not my type of political leader at all, but I also know that he did win the popular vote. Other than that, I want Iran to remain free, strong and Islamic in the Iranian sense of that word. There are aspects of the Iranian society which I don’t like (the death penalty for starters) but these are my views and its their society, so I want them to remain sovereign and rule their country according to their tradition, values and religion (not mine or anybody else’s). But I don’t really support any one political force or movement in Iran. Of course, I do consider Rafsanjani as a corrupt SOB who is playing with the lives of people for his own political and financial interests, I think that Mousavi is a thoroughly dishonest person and probably a CIA puppet, and I think that the folks who supported them are at best badly misinformed or terminally naive and, at worst, die-hard secularists who hate the Islamic Republic. But the fact that these guys disgust me, it hardly means that I am a supporter of the other side.
If there are Iranian patriots who for whatever reason voted against Ahmadinejad, I have no problem with them. But if they begin to put the entire Islamic in danger because they are mad at having lost the popular vote, then I categorically oppose them.
Lastly, if I had to pick a guy which I would want to see President in Iran, it would probably be Larijani. But as long as the real power is in the hands of Ayatollah Khamenei I think that Iran is in safe and trustworthy hands.
That’s about the extend of my views on this topic. Rather superficial I would honestly admit.
I just wanted to let you know where I stood (and where I did not have much of an opinion).
Cheers!
Cheers!
zero evidence? Not so..back in 2008:
‘The week of his arrest, a November 2008 cable, 08CAIRO2371, which was covered nicely by Foreign Policy, was believed to show how US diplomats had worked to get Abbas’ YouTube account reinstated by Google. Although his name is redacted in the cable, CNET said it thought the redacted name was Abbas’:
Prominent Egyptian blogger XXXXXXXXXXXXX, contacted us November 17 to report that YouTube removed from his website two videos exposing police abuses — one of Sinai bedouin allegedly shot by police and thrown in a garbage dump during the past week’s violence (ref A), and the other of a woman being tortured in a police station. XXXXXXXXXXXXX told us that YouTube is also preventing XXXXXXXXXXXX from posting new videos, and asked us for assistance in urging YouTube to re-post his removed videos and reinstate his access to uploading new material. XXXXXXXXXXXXX said XXXXXXXXXXXXXX has tried to contact Google, but has not received a response.
In December 2007, DRL and Embassy Cairo worked to convince Google to restore XXXXXXXXXXXXX’ YouTube access after a similar incident. We believe that a similar Department intervention with Google representatives could help in restoring XXXXXXXXXXXXX’ access again. XXXXXXXXXXXXis an influential blogger and human rights activist, and we want to do everything we can to assist him in exposing police abuse. XXXXXXXXXXXXX’ post of a video showing two policemen sodomizing a bus driver was used as the main evidence to convict the officers in November 2007 (ref C).
‘The most interesting part of 08CAIRO2371 is perhaps this section:
(SBU) The group included bloggers, journalists, activists from secular opposition parties such as El-Ghad and the Democratic Front Party and movements such as “Kifaya” and “April 6. A lawyer for the group confirmed that a French activist was among the detainees. Some of the detainees are participants in Freedom House’s “New Generation” program which provides training for young activists. One member of the group departed for Washington January 18 to participate in a Project on Middle East Democracy program. Contacts confirmed that activist and El-Ghad party member Israa Abdel Fattah was also part of the group. (Note: Abdel Fattah was the subject of headlines in April 2008 when she was arrested and detained for 17 days after her call for an April 6 general strike on Facebook attracted almost 70,000 members (ref B). Following her release, she renounced her activities in a television interview, and has remained out of public view until now. End note.)
The “New Generation” program is “supported by funds from the US State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).” It has provided Egyptian fellows the opportunity to work with Americans and “hone” skills so they can become “social and political reformers.”
The program is essentially a pro-democracy initiative, the kind of initiative that Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed was behind the “green revolution” which almost prevented him from staying in power after a possibly fraudulent election.
http://wlcentral.org/node/1238
so was an egyptian blogger trying to get US embassy help? and cleary Freedom House (NED funded) is involved.
looking at the low brow derogrative comments here, i suggest people get a bit better informed. NED funded Freedom House most definitely has egyptian trainees in the country. A US embassy cable confirms it.
http://213.251.145.96/cable/2010/01/10CAIRO99.html
http://wlcentral.org/node/1238
make of it what you will…is the US playing both sides?