It’s been a mediocre week in Syria. Syrian forces have committed to a relentless offensive and have stepped up their assaults with fresh operations in Homs and Aleppo. Operations are being committed against both the Islamic State and the so called rebels supported by the West.
Gains have been modest, while territory is being recaptured by the Syrian Arab Army (supported by the Russian air force) the offensives, in the words of Russian advisers, have been less than spectacular. The speed of the offensives has been gruelingly slow due to the entrenched resistance seen in places like Aleppo and Hama.
Some of these areas have been in rebel hands for so long they have been reinforced into micro-garrisons. Tunnels are not only used to help shelter fighters during air raids and to move men from one part of the town to another in rapid defense but also to smuggle in supplies from outside the city during government sieges and encirclement.
Needless to say the fighting has been tough, but the SAA, with the aid of the Russian air campaign and Iranian/Hezbollah support, have brought in some hard earned victories.
However there is a lack of a single decisive victory, the big win if you will, for the Syrian Arab Army. Although morale has significantly picked up since the entry of the Russian air force into the fight there is also signs that the Syrian people have become accustomed to war, or ‘crisis’ as the government calls it.
Syria has been a nation at war for quite some time (4.5+ years). Despite this and the fact major parts of the country are destroyed, other parts of the nation have long returned to a level of normalcy. Of course there will always be the security issue as long as the crisis is ongoing. Law abiding citizens turning of age will have to commit to their draft and most likely be deployed in areas of combat against rebels or the Islamic State. Some boys have already been discharged. There is the odd day or two where one or two streets will be shut down due to terrorists but eventually normalcy returns. Life goes on.
Of course that’s not to say large parts of the country haven’t been reduced to rubble. Or that there isn’t an internal refugee crisis. But where the government rules there seems to be a level of order.
The government has had a long-standing program since the onset of the crisis to maintain a series of government grocery shops and bakeries to alleviate demands on the private sector. The government continues to subsidize food and electricity. Roads are fixed and maintained. Syrian TV dramas have continued to film and air over the four years with minor interruptions. Although some parts of Syria are destroyed, major segments still seem to be functioning fine. [Source]
And just like Syrian society so too has the Syrian military accepted the new security situation. Like all conflicts in the Middle East, long protracted wars are the norm. From Lebanon to Iraq to Palestine and back again. The Syrian Arab Army has seen so many causalities and has fought hundreds of thousands of foreign jihadists over the years that to achieve peace now would be as tedious as continuing the war in its current state.
No one has ever put it better than in Shakespeare’s Macbeth:
“I am in blood stepp’d in so far that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er,”
And that is what many Syrian regulars are feeling today; fighting a war that doesn’t seem to have an end. Despite the heavy propaganda of the ever-so-happy Syrian soldier, who apparently does not feel combat-fatigue fighting a war for almost half a decade, there is a general acceptance of the facts on the ground.
One of these facts it that to root out these Islamists from Syria once and for all is going to take a lot more effort than initially anticipated. The fact Assad had twice offered an amnesty to all draft-dodgers, deserters, and defectors highlights the complicated nature of maintaining dedicated manpower through his regular forces. [Source]
It’s definitely going to take more than the 30 planes and the thousands of troops coming in from Hezbollah and Iran. Something bigger must be brewing to bring the decisive victory needed to shake off the nation’s lackadaisical acceptance of the crisis and shake out the foreign invaders that are destroying the country.
The Russians have been continuously providing fire-support to Syrian troops on the ground. On top of the consistent on-call air support to the SAA, the Russian air force they have also taken the initiative in continuously harassing opposition forces. The opposition has had no respite from combat since the Russians have entered the conflict. When the SAA ground offensives stop, the Russian attack runs pick up the pressure and keep the enemy occupied and suppressed.
It’s starting to appear, albeit unclearly, that Russia’s involvement isn’t part of some larger geopolitical play or a scheme to expand further militarily into the Middle East, but to genuinely deny the fall of Assad. The plan is to truly create favorable conditions on the ground to allow for a better hand at the negotiating table. Right now Russia is content providing these airplanes, but there is no doubt that Russia has the power and projection capability to reset the battlefield should Assad ever be pushed into a corner. Something that can’t be said about the rebels, which the West refuses to support currently through direct air strikes on Assad, and ISIL, which the GCC refuses to continue financing until it comes to heel.
These next few days are going to highlight the reserve capacity of the rebels and Islamic State. As all factions have been fighting for a week we’re starting to see if the rebels and the Islamic State have the operational capability and strategic depth to withstand an extensive SAA ground offensive supported by accurate Russian firepower from the air. Iranian troops have landed in the thousands to reinforce the ground offensives. More Shia militias, trained by Iranians, have been imported from Iraq and Shia volunteers (or mercenaries) from Afghanistan are being shuttled to the combat zone.
It also seems there’s a bit of politics occurring in the background. Meetings between Russian and Saudi delegates. Russians trying to bring the Americans in with the Americans shunning all attempts. Secret Israeli and Saudi meetings. Everything is happening quietly and quickly.
So here is where we stand:
Syria:
• A double force multiplier: the SAA is being supported by Russian airstrikes as well as Iranian air mobility and airlift capability. This allows the SAA to use its limited manpower to deploy to any front by Iranian helicopters/planes supported by Russian air cover. [Source]
• A continuous offensive with major operations renewed in Homs and Aleppo. [Source]
• Syrian military intelligence have infiltrated into many of the factions on the ground providing direct intelligence for air strikes, some going undercover for three years and perhaps longer. This partially explains the accurate intelligence on large stores of munitions and important facilities. [Source]
• TOS-1 have been seen deployed in Syria, a thermobaric weapon designed for anti-garrison/defense bombardment. Probably a response to the mediocre effect of ground offensives. [Source]
Russia:
• Russia continues to provide air support to the Syrian Arab Army on the ground as well as take out high-level opposition targets such as foreign training camps [Source]
• Russian air force has also undertaken an entropy-based strategy against opposition forces, both rebels and ISIL, in a continuous effort to not only destroy fighters and degrade command capabilities (through both destruction of command centers and jamming of enemy signals) but also force the opposition to continuously expend effort (fuel, man hours, tools, etc.) avoiding Russian helicopter gunships and strike-fighters (by constantly having engines running, repositioning, dedicating manpower to watch out for incoming Russian air assets, etc.) [Source]
• In effect all the Russian air force has to do is just launch fighters and automatically thousands of jihadi’s will be awoken in the middle of the night to frantically rush to reposition or hide their assets in a vain attempt to preserve their assets.
• Russia has significantly degraded a lot of the war projection capabilities of ISIL inside Syria as many of their heavy munitions areas have been destroyed. [Source]
• Russia still enjoys major popular support domestically for the air intervention in Syria with the latest anti-intervention rally in Moscow drawing out more journalists than protestors [Source]
• The Russian air force in Syria has to worry about MANPADS such as captured Soviet-era Igla and Strela systems, Chinese MANPADS, and potentially advanced Western MANPADS from Turkey, Israel, or the US. This worry is doubled for low-flying Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships. [Source]
• Anti-air systems such as ZPU-1, 2, and 4s may also prove to be hazardous. Syria is known to have over 4000 anti-air guns which many fell under rebel control and can be seen mounted atop trucks in various youtube videos [Source]
Iran/Hezbollah:
• Iran has finally provided some visible forms of support with the deployment of an IRGC brigade to help with the offensives in Homs and Aleppo. [Source]
• Iran has lost another two senior IRGC officers in Syria highlighting the increased presence of Iranian units inside Syria. [Source]
• Delayed the deployment of significant number of troops by two weeks in an effort to better understand the commitment of Russian involvement. Although Russia is seen as a more honest international broker than the United States, Iran hasn’t forgotten how easily Russia postponed the S-300 contract due to international (and rumored Israeli) pressure. [Source]
• The Iranian leadership currently fears that the Russians will allow “some” Israeli airstrikes to hit their targets inside Syria as part of an appeasement. They also have fears that the Russians may strike a bargain with the Saudis sometime in the future which will limit Iranian influence in Bahrain and Yemen.
• Iran has also brought in Iraqi Shia militias and Shia Afghanis to fight in Syria. Many claim the (Shia) Afghanis are nothing more than mercenaries hired by Iran (Afghanistan has had a history of warlords for generations) [Source]
• Flexing its military muscles, Iran has showcased one of its many massive underground missile bases highlighting its capability to withstand pre-emptive first-strike operations and be able to retaliate with massive saturation missile attacks. Might be as a warning to Israel of repercussions prior to deploying ground forces in Syria. Or possibly another show of force prior to entering talks with the US which consistently talks about “all options are on the table” [Source]
• Hezbollah also lost a prominent commander operating in Idlib. [Source]
• These targeted killings of senior Iranian and Hezbollah commanders could be the work of Western intelligence which passed down information to opposition forces and the Islamic State. Israel, Turkey, or the US. Of course pure speculation.
Iraq:
• Currently the Iraqi army is fighting Sunni tribes and the Islamic State in the West and North of the country in another major offensive. Efforts are focused on the Baiji area in a drawn out mop up operation to secure a strategic hub for continued offensives into the Anbar province (which is ISIL territory) [Source]
• Iraq has been diversifying its arsenal away from the US for some time. Not only do Iranian and Russian weapons fill the armories of Iraq but so do the Chinese with missiles, heavy weapons, and drones [Source]
• There is more evidence that Iraq has shifted closer and closer to the Iranian sphere of influence than the US.
• There is still currently 15,000 Western-affiliated forces in Iraq which doesn’t include Kurdish units or the Iraqi military. US (4850 regulars + 7000 contractors) Australia (~900 troops), Canada (~700 troops), Spain (300 trainers), etc.; the so called Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve or CJTF-OIR for short.
United States of America:
• No more carriers in the Middle East. The USS Theodore has completely left the Arabian Sea [Source]
• Currently the US is in the midst of a showdown with China over its island expansion and may be repositioning the aircraft carriers for some kind of double down on a show-of-force. [Source]
• The US seems to have accepted the status quo of the situation but continues to refuse to work with Russia in Syria. [Source]
• It is unclear if the US is committing strike-fighters or just drones for its bombing campaign in Syria. Although the last carrier pulled out of the Middle East the US still enjoys the deployment of various expeditionary air groups in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. [Source]
• US media claims 300 Cuban special forces are also deployed inside Syria but could very well be false information to distract from domestic issues for political reasons as relations between the US and Cuba begin to thaw. [Source]
• The US has shifted its aid from training the rebels to just providing the opposition with arms and ammunition. The goal of this is to continue the chaos but not have it be effective enough to turn the tide. [Source]
• Undoubtable just like in the past some aid will end up in ISIL hands, either through miss drops or being turned over/traded by other Islamists.
• It is unclear if the US plans to commit to some counter action in another theater against Russia for its interference in the Western-driven plans to overthrow Assad.
Islamic State:
• They haven’t stopped committing the offensives.
• The Islamic State has no allies currently, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, once supporters of ISIL, now refusing to support the group until they return to following orders [Source]
• False reports about another Baghdadi strike. Intelligence so far have managed to strike Baghdadis entourage three times but never the man himself. [Source]
• There is some anecdotal evidence indicating Baghdadi was recruited by some Western intelligence agency. This would clearly implicate Western involvement in the creation of ISIL. Evidence such as Baghdadi being a US prisoner for some time and released. Israeli air attacks on Syrian assets occurring simultaneously with some Islamist attacks.
• As previously noted by others, the US and co. can “turn on” these groups, but they can’t switch them off. I like to call it letting the Islamist genie out of the bottle, once out you can’t put it back in.
Rebel Factions including Al-Nusra:
• The rebels seem to still have a large number of TOWs on hand. [Source]
• False flag massacres have been occurring to try to shift international media attention to demonize the actions of the SAA and the Russian air force. [Source]
• Right now the rebels are lacking a cohesive strategy once again in dealing with the Russian air strikes and renewed ground offensives. All hope awaits outside intervention. Considering the US has stopped training the rebels officially, the GCC and Turkey may be given an incentive to pick up where the Americans left off.
• The rebel public relation and propaganda campaigns have taken a dive for the worst being unable to show any tangible victories against the government asides from a few TOW videos against obscure targets [Source]
• Al-Qaeda commanders have been killed in an airstrike, rumored to be sent directly by Ayman al-Zawahri (part of the original OBL Al-Qaeda) [Source]
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and co.:
• Saudi Arabia and Russia have had a high-level meeting about the situation in Syria. It’s unclear if Saudi Arabia is acting in its own interests or as an ally of the US. Russia remained cordial. It’s safe to say this meeting was probably met with coldness by the Iranians. [Source]
• The IMF has given a very dire prediction of the Saudi economy. The oil bubble has allowed Saudi Arabia to grow much faster without adjusting for its new expenses should the price of oil fall; which it has. [Source]
• The campaign in Yemen is sloppy and was committed haphazardly by a young 30 year-old Saudi defense minister, the youngest defense minister in the world [Source]
• The Arab Coalition bombing campaign of Yemen has been mostly ignored by the mainstream media due to US political clout. The bombing is so indiscriminate that the Saudis even strike their own allies from time to time [Source]
• The warfare seen in Yemen and the south of Saudi Arabia is escalating ever so slowly. SCUDS have been fired by Houthi forces against Saudi military positions inside Saudi Arabia [Source]
• These North Korean SCUDS were probably purchased by the Yemen government in the 90s and captured by the Houthis and then turned on the Saudis.
• Yemeni Houthi forces have also attacked military bases near the Yemen border inside Saudi Arabia inflicting substantial causalities [Source]
• Saudi Arabia clearly has its own problems in its own backyard right now.
• Saudi Arabia is backing the Hadi-government, which is supported by the Arab Coalition and indirectly by the US due to Saudi support.
• The Shia Houthis (rebels or revolutionaries) who were predominately in the north, have taken over the government after grievances were not addressed appropriately. They are supported given minimal support by Iran.
• Yemen also hosts Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, ISIL, and several other Islamists groups (including the Somalian Al-Shahaab). Members of AQAP have split and pledged their allegiance to ISIL; it is only a matter of time before more AQAP forces switch over.
• The US continues to commit drone strikes inside Yemen against AQAP.
• Saudi Arabia and Israel may work together to counter Iran. Either by finding a way to include the Palestinians instead of pushing them into Iran’s corner or to completely denounce the Palestinians for Israeli support against Iran. (Especially with the US) [Source]
• It is said that Saudi Arabia has access to nuclear weapons through a loan-agreement with Pakistan, which is considered the “vanguard of the Sunni faith”. Although the transfer of these weapons will be very unlikely (due to the international crisis Israel will make of it) it is not the first time this agreement has been mentioned. This threat could be a way to counter any Iranian nuclear ambitions, if any. [Source]
Turkey
• Turkey is playing hard ball right now, rejecting EU offers. It’ll continue to play the refugee card until it can get something out of this entire debacle. [Source]
• A drone of unknown origins was shot down on the border of Turkey and Syria. The US suspects it’s Russian in origin but there are many operators of drones inside Syria including Iran, Syrian government, and rebel forces. [Source]
• Turkey has previously committed its own false flag operations, such as the rumored rockets fired from Syria inside Turkey which was seized upon to force NATO to deploy Patriot batteries on the border. [Source]
• This could be another desperate attempt to extend the Patriot missile deployment by NATO.
• The patriot missile batteries are being pulled out despite an October 8th appeal by Turkey to NATO [Source]
• Turkey and the Kurds (PKK) are still skirmishing inside Turkey, violence looks like it’s going to escalate. [Source]
Israel
• Israel currently facing an escalation of violence from the occupied peoples of Palestine. In turn Israel has increased security killing several Palestinians, many captured on camera. [Source]
• So far the mainstream media has managed to minimize the coverage of Israel.
• It is unclear to what level the West Bank is armed, citing previous Iranian threats of arming the West Bank after the latest war against Hamas in Gaza [Source]
• It’s also unclear to what level this escalation will bring by the Palestinians, who are being strangled in Gaza by Egypt and Israel, and are being prosecuted by Israel in the West Bank. [Source]
• Israel continues to buy oil from the quasi-state Kurdistan at a discounted price, which directly funds the Peshmerga and its fight against ISIL as well as solidifying its independence from Turkey and Syria. [Source]
• Israel has had a rough plan of attack against Hezbollah while the organization was distracted by the war in Syria. This plan was clearly interrupted by the Russian involvement.
• It would involve a heavy propaganda blitz in tangent with an operation to attempt to migrate as many Lebanese civilians from southern Lebanon to the north of the country (this required chartering vessels to shuttle civilians from Tyre to Tripoli). After the warning period involving loud speakers, leaflets, and hacking into TV signals and radio stations, Israel will treat all people who decide to remain in the area as enemy combatants. [Source]
• Critics have said it’s a way for Israel to use the Lebanese as a human shield by having them positioned close to Israeli ground units as they are being evacuated.
• Should the evacuation fail Israel has steadily increased the rhetoric in the past about striking Hezbollah in villages with no regard to civilian causalities [Source]
• Once civilians have been reduced and the world has been informed of the extraordinary effort Israel has gone to inform civilians to flee, it will level the whole of South Lebanon in a non-stop bombing campaign before a ground incursion even begins.
• This plan does not factor in Hezbollahs capability to infiltrate forces inside Israel through tunnels, as seen by Hamas in Gaza against an IDF army outpost inside Israel. [Source]
What I found interesting is the news from Iraq. Suddenly we hear that the government got control of the Baiji refinery, that they make serious advances in Ramadi and that US has killed an ISIS commander somewhere in the North. It sounds like someone is suddenly getting serious about fighting ISIS.
As for the plane/drone that was shot down by Turkey, here is its picture:
http://off-guardian.org/2015/10/16/the-clickbait-award-for-hysteria-in-journalism-goes-to/
This appears to be the drone that was shot down. Anyone can buy it on alibaba.
http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/EWATT-Unmanned-Aerial-Vehicle-Fixed-Wing_60010112603.html
@Peter: most likely not. It is unknown UAV type. I believe it is either “black ops” or “export” russian type, unknown to the public, or “conspiracy” type by who knows who. The same kind of UAV was shot down (allegedly) in Ukraine in 2014 and in also in Syria in 2015. It may belong to Syrian army …
Kaluga, I checked the one shot down in Ukraine and i doubt it was Russian. It was identified by Ukraine “officials” as an Orlan-10 UAV. it was not an Orlan-10.http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/en/publish/article;jsessionid=6732B2E38A2486358B06F49581E6B90D.app1?art_id=126346&cat_id=35317
Orlan-10 here http://en.ruvsa.com/catalog/orlan_10/
The one in Ukraine is possibly one of their own that they had bought from China, or possibly it is one that Donbass bought themselves but it is not Russian.
Russian Orlon-10 shot down in Syria here
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/655756982641672192
Another source I found compared a drone made in Ukraine to the “Russian” Orlon-10 so called derivative, and it turned out to be one and the same. Was made in Ukraine.
Why would the US get serious about IS.. it trained armed etc and now supplies with ammo, food and meds by air. Just the usual BS to catch out the naiive..
Wow.. censored in 1minute
Syria sitrep:
1. no exaggeration : targeted assassination of leadership This has been going on in Iraq and is a well know tactic of the Israeli/US counter insurgency forces
2. counter action in another theater: US troop etc. ( with an emphasis on etc) now continue and probably will be augmented in Afghanistan. Hmm I hear the sounds: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan tinkling in the breeze
3. Iranian fears about Russia/Israel. Well, sigh. there is that trade off plum, half eaten anyway, called the Golan Heights but that may just end up being a strategic sacrifice when there are bigger fish to fry for the Russians rather than an all out betrayal.
Since it joined the intel center created by Russia, Iraq’s combat ability has markedly increased and seems to be improving at the same rate its reliance on the Outlaw Empire decreases. Indeed, I suspect Sadr and Sistani will soon again demand the withdrawal of all elements of the illegal coalition. Getting the Outlaw Empire out of the region will improve Iraq and Syria’s ability to rout Daesh.
Outlaw Historian, this is a great observation, and it’s pretty stunning for people like me who never saw it coming. It’s kind of like how a deadbeat addict can suddenly turn into a viable human as soon as s/he gets off the drug.
I have greatly appreciated your comments over time by the way. keep them coming!
“Some of these areas have been in rebel hands for so long they have been reinforced into micro-garrisons. Tunnels are not only used to help shelter fighters during air raids and to move men from one part of the town to another in rapid defense but also to smuggle in supplies from outside the city during government sieges and encirclement”.
You know what that sounds like? Stalingrad! Or Brest-Litovsk for that matter. Which means that the Russians know as much as anyone in the world about the creation, operation, and reduction of such defenses. (The Chinese, North Koreans and Vietnamese are no slouches either). Those nations have had to engage in bitter defense, with their very existence at stake. In contrast, the Americans and British have little experience of bitter-end resistance fighting in caves, tunnels and urban ruins.
No one in the current Russian military fought at Stalingrad. Maybe knowledge gained has been preserved for 70 years but that’s stretching it. Besides that Russia is on the attacking end of the fortifications via air power. They are not on the ground attacking. Not trying to be difficult with you or anything just trying give you another point of view of the subject. Defending is alot easier to due then attacking. Generally the attacking force needs to be larger then the defending force. The defending force knows the area they are in where the attacker does not. The defender can fight back when its best for them the attacker has to move forward. These are just basic things that will make the retaking of areas under rebel/Islamist control difficult.
Note: TOS-1 have been seen deployed in Syria, a thermobaric weapon designed for anti-garrison/defense bombardment. Probably a response to the mediocre effect of ground offensives.
The thermobaric explosion can do damage to men in tunnels – heat, explosive shock and lack of oxygen. A very fierce weapon that is going to drive underground rats crazy.
Very interesting, sadly because you are not reporting that everything is perfect, you will likely soon be accused of being an agent of Strelkov.
Very interesting, sadly because you heap scorn on any report that says progress is being made, you will likely soon be accused of being a troll
I have noticed from many years of dealing with USA trolls, that it is always the trolls that make the first troll accusation, these are liers that knows they have no facts on their side and feel it necessary to try to turn it into a flamewar as soon as possible. The first thing you find on any western article is tones of USA trolls calling everyone that disagree with USA for Russians trolls.
So please, prove that you are not a troll by backing up your claim that “I heap scorn on any report that says progress is being made” Or? Are you referring to the fact that I quoted thesaker? Is that your definition of “heaping scorn”? Does that make thesaker a “Russian troll” too according to you? And a Strelkov agent as well I presume?
“if the current Syrian army offensive (which, by Russian accounts, is less than spectacular) ”
/in-the-meantime-in-nazi-occupied-ukraine/
Regarding the danger to the low slow flying attack helicopters. This was the first thing that really stood out with some of the first videos that come out. they were not only vulnerable to MANPADs but also RPGs or un-guided rockets fired from close range.
The Russian pilots are good but not crazy. looking at videos of the Shoria-1 system in action it seems Russia has developed something which detonates the explosive charge in missiles at a range of two to three meters
without using an explosive charge or solid projectile.
The armour on the Mi-24s and Mi-28s is impervious to small arms up to 12.7 or even 14mm rounds.
I would guess it would withstand the shrapnel and blast from an RPG that detonates several meters away.
It seems they only have to destroy the larger solid projectile systems like 23mm AA cannon which are much harder to hide, and then they can get down there eyeball to eyeball with the bad guys.
The information on the war plans of Israel toward Hizballah in Lebanon are correct. The entire goal of the Syria crisis is to degrade Syria’s ability to function as an effective actor in an Iran war AND to enable ISrael to cross Syrian territory to attack Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley in a pincer movement.
The Israel aggression on Lebanon in 2006 failed because they relied on air power and did not commit ground troops in numbers until the last couple days. They were also unprepared for Hizballah defenses.
This time Israel will commit ground troops immediately: one division going into Southern Lebanon as before, one division crossing Syrian territory to attack the Bekaa Valley, and one division to provide cover for the Bekaa Valley division against Syrian forces.
At least, that WAS the plan until Russia destroyed any chance of it working by committing forces in Syria. Israel will not risk a confrontation with Russia.
If Israel will now resort to the failed strategy of carpet bombing Southern Lebanon, they will lose again. Even if they manage to force the majority of the population north.they will not force Hizballah out of the south as Hizballah has the underground fortifications to withstand Israeli air power. They also have the antitank missiles needed to destroy Israeli tanks.
Israel is now stuck in a status quo which will require US involvement against Russia to break. Obama is too gutless to start a direct conflict with Russia which is why the US is doing nothing at the moment.
Israel might try an attack on Lebanon just to force Hizballah to bring its forces back from Syria, however. This would be a desperation move that, with the entrance of Iranian forces into Syria, probably won’t change much.
Israel might also throw a fit over Iranian forces in Syria and try to attack them. Russia would presumably thwart this as well.
Russia’s entry into Syria has definitely muddied the waters for the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations. It’s unclear how things will develop going forward, but there is a real chance that at the very least the Syrian military will manage to gain control of the northwest of Syria and the main populated areas. While the war is unlikely to be “won” by either side, its continuance with the advantage being on the Syrian military side will likely delay any Iran war for many more years. Israel cannot afford to attack Iran without dealing with Syria and Hizballah first.
Without direct US/NATO/Turkey intervention, Israel can not hope to take out both forces itself – and Russia has now made such intervention much more difficult.
If anyone hasn’t seen Netenyahu’s insane rant at the UNGA you should. I reveals the lunatic ravings of a madman who has been thrown under a bus with veiled threats against anyone and everyone. Well worth watching as repulsive as it is. Israeli military ground forces….Palestinian boys with sling shots deal with them. Let them go face to face against Hezbollah.
” The US continues to commit drone strikes inside Yemen against AQAP” I don’t buy this-these are US KSA assets.
RR, Satan-yahoo represents the Rightwing, Likudnik tendency of Jabotinsky and Satan’s own father. Basically Judaic fascism. Unfortunately, the Israeli Right is now so insane, aggressive, deeply xenophobic and racist, that Satanyahoo represents a comparatively moderate voice. Calls from the Right, from Knesset members like Shaked, now the Minister for Justice, for genocide of the Palestinians are growing in frequency. Expulsion of all Arabs, including Arab Israelis, are also increasing, and during the latest Gaza massacre and child slaughter, the comments of thousands of Israelis on social media were hair-raising in their sadism and viciousness. People who exult in the murder of children, praising the slaughter, are not the cream of humanity, or of Jewry in particular. You’d think that after their own hideous suffering in the Nazi Judeocide, they’d know better. And all because they refuse to treat the Palestinians as fellow human beings, and because, due to the control of Western politics and MSM by Jewish Fifth Columns, their brutality and contempt for International Law in endlessly indulged by their Sabbat Goyim stooges. It must be Hell to be one of the sane Jews living in Israel, with so many of your fellows literally evil and insane, and your society working frantically to dig its own grave and that of the entire region.
I don’t think the Israelis realize the “advantage” they have with the Palestinians in Israel.If they try expelling them the World would turn against Israel in mass (except the Western leaders).But that would free the others for retaliation Worldwide against Israel and any supporters they had.And clear the ground for direct War against Israel.No one would need to worry about Palestinians being “human Shields”.The missiles could fly at will.The only two things that today give Israel power.One, is the Worldwide (especially in the West) “guilt” over the nazi crimes against Jews in WW2.If Israel tried what was suggested that weapon would disappear overnight in most of the World.Second,is the Jewish presence in foreign (Western states) countries.In many of those countries their economic influence dominates those societies way out of proportion to what their numbers should allow.That is really the most important Israeli weapon they have.How to deal with that is a definite problem.I’m not “anti-Jewish” and don’t support discrimination against anybody based on ethnicity or religion.And yet,it just is not right for any single group to hold that kind of power over vast majorities of others.So the question remains unanswered “what is to be done to neutralize that weapon Israel holds”.
So the question remains unanswered “what is to be done to neutralize that weapon Israel holds”.
Get (truly) shot of Capitalism.
Iran didn’t give the world a glimpse of their underground arsenal for no reason. If Israel steps it up….they go down. And Russia will protect Iran and Lebanon with their jamming technology. Russia is now allied with Iran and Hezbollah and as far as the US goes most significant, Hezbollah is no longer on the America terrorist list. Someone got a slap. Also, Obama takes things personal…he was lied to about progress against ISIS and fired Ret General Allen who was running CIA covert show. He is supplying Kurds also with weapons. He did make the Iran deal. Obama’s MO also seems to be saying one thing publically and doing another privately. US ships pulling out may be due less than Russia ability to neutralize. As stated here, It may imply lack of support for Israel. The US personally flew to Iran at one stage a few years ago and publically stated a war against Iran and you are on your own. I cannot see Israeli troops fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah fighter’s. They may use all the fleeing ISIS personal from Syria for such a mission but real soldier’s do not shoot women and children for sport. Not only is such an act despicable, it is also most cowardly. Such an army is not mentally or spiritually equipped to fight Martyr’s. In fact a defeat at the hands of Hezbollah once again may be the best thing to happen in the M.E since they last sent Israel packing. As far as betrayals or dropping Assad or getting on the wrong side of Iran really who could even entertain such foolishness. These are allies and they are straight up with each other coordinating efforts. Not one of them makes a move without the other knowing about it in advance. These people are on the same page facing the same existential threat-and they know it.
If Israel did carpet-bomb the south Lebanese yet again, the rain of Hezbollah missiles on Israel will see the population of Long Island double overnight.
hahaha Mulga…I wonder if they’d stay in Long Island or go back ? Hmm…ethnic cleansing…
Recent news around the blogs has been the attacks on Aleppo power supplies, possibly a deliberate attempt to create disease or increase the flow of refugees.
Todays article in the Guardian…. Battle for Aleppo threatens to create fresh refugee exodus, says Turkish PM….
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/18/battle-aleppo-refugee-exodus-says-turkish-pm-merkel-germany-membership-eu
Speaking after talks with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, Davutoğlu called for action to prevent a new wave of refugees from moving north across the Turkish border. Aleppo is under assault both from Isis and from forces backing the Syrian government, including Iranian fighters and Russian aircraft.
“It is our priority that steps will be taken to prevent an increase of refugees from Aleppo due to the offensive [there] by Iranian militia, Isis and Russian attacks,” Davutoğlu said on Sunday. “Aleppo is Syria’s second biggest city. The [Russian] airstrikes in and around Aleppo as well as the Isis attack on the city worry us. They could cause another wave of refugees.”
Peter, the Turkish lunatic regime reached some new depth of insanity when it accused the PKK of co-operating with Daash in the Ankara massacre. Naturally no turd, sorry ‘journalist’, in the Western MSM sewer dared treat that garbage with the contempt it deserves.
This is interesting..
It seems most of the participants (Israel, Turkey, Syria, US) might be happy to see the impoverished and overwhelmingly Sunni residents around Idlib and up to Allepo removed to Turkey.. and then on to Europa!
Chaos for everyone. That’s what the capstone jackals want and it’s what they’re gonna get.
Obummer and Putin both need a sufficient level of mayhem to justify a full on peace conference forcing unwilling parties like Israel, CIA-Saudi and NATO nutters, to respect any deal.
The cat’s out of the bag. Obie n’ Vlad are all in against Satanyahoo. I seriously doubt the process is anywhere close to complete.
First, Israel must be spanked and HARD before they are willing to cease and desist. This might happened in south Lebanon still but more likely will not now that Russia is entrenched on the Med coast of Syria.
Best option left for Israel, in their own sick and twisted estimation, is to cleanse Palestine of 5 or so million Arabs and mix them with millions more fleeing Syria and Iraq.
Imagine what all those Sunni refugees from Palestine, Idlib and Anbar will do for the European labour market!
Putin will be unable to deliver a quick fix I’m afraid.
Expect the war on terror, formerly a mirage, to last a generation.
Israel doesn’t care about civilian casualties. That is just typically mendacious Zionazi agit-prop. You can see from the orgies of mass murder in the attacks on Gaza, the 40,000 killed in the 1982 attack on Lebanon, the ‘Dahiya Doctrine’ of total obliteration of civilian areas, the history of massacres of Palestinians over sixty years, the murder of POWs in 1956 and 1967 and the cold-blooded execution murders occurring right now, just what the true Zionazi attitude is. Not to forget the Judaic religious justification for these murders, which the influential Yesha Council of Rabbis and Torah Sages declared mitzvot, or religiously approved good deeds, in 2006. But the propaganda lying for Israel by the Zionazi controlled Western MSM is relentless, for example in the lie that the targeted killing of stone-throwers by IDF thugs is a ‘new’ policy, when sniper killings, by bullets to the head or in the back have been a feature of Zionazi genocide against the imprisoned Palestinians for years.
Mulga,If you have not seen this before it is worth a look,shows the true nature of Talmudic Judaism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSy6ENVAJlY
Title of video: “When Israel is Mighty”….must see part of an extended interview with writer Yossi Gurvitz [ http://ygurvitz.net ] – transcribed & translated from Hebrew to English by Dena Shunra
Wow,a great video.He pretty much says it all.And he is right in everything he said according to religious laws.I especially liked what he said at the end about Christians.That should be “required” viewing in every Christian Church in the US.You can bet he is not popular among zionist Israelis.
Israel doesn’t care about civilian causalities. That goes without saying. However it does care that it’s PERCEIVED to care about civilian causalities. That is why it goes out of its way to highlight how they’re using knock-rockets to warn civilians in Gaza of an impending strike (during the last Gaza war).
Of course in reality the artillery drops nearly instantly after the knock-rocket but on paper they can tell the media they do these things.
The same applies with the attempt to evacuate the civilians in south of Lebanon. They don’t care if no one shows up for the “free-ride” from Tyre to Tripoli. As long as they can film those ships sailing back and forth they can tell the world they did EVERYTHING to reduce civilian causalities.
The world has already acclimatized to Israel killing civilians.
Should Israel take on such an operation (to attack the south of Lebanon), Hezbollah clearly has means to retaliate. Not only can the north of Israel be showered by rockets and the coast of Lebanon kept clear of Israeli naval vessels (with anti-ship missiles some with projected capabilities of 300 km) but also some advanced anti-air rockets could finally even threaten what Israel considers its exclusive advantage, air power.
Scarier rumors still is the capability of Hezbollah to use tunnels that lead directly into Israeli settlements.
The Israel air force may have no scruples bombing Arabs in Lebanon, but Jewish settlers held hostage in settlements inside Israel is a whole other matter.
The Israel Air Force also lacks the same degree of professionalism as its father organization, the United States Air Force. During the 2006 war the IAF couldn’t even bring down the Al-Manar TV network (Hezbollah-owned TV channel). Even though it was struck 15 times during the war it only faltered for 2 minutes on a single occasion.
In an age of anti-radiation missiles (literally missiles designed to home-in on radio signals from radars and TV stations) to be incapable of such a feat is beyond embarrassing (and the USAF has also echoed this insult).
This is why they were opting for a ruthless bombing campaign. They want to literally flatten the south of Lebanon. The level of bombing will be something unseen before in Lebanon. It’ll be the old-school style of carpet bombing seen in Vietnam using Napalm and white phosphorous (or as the Israelis call it “smoke rounds”). The whole point is whoever decided to remain in Lebanon will be killed. Israel is hoping that the majority of Hezbollah-supporting families will stay behind and be obliterated.
Israel would likely also mine the whole of the south of Lebanon. Cluster mines can be deployed today not only be air but through artillery cannons and rockets. The whole point is to make south Lebanon into an uninhabitable buffer zone. Even if Israel should fail to destroy Hezbollah (again) the south of Lebanon will be a completely hostile environment, deforested and mined.
John Rambo, the Israeli elite would welcome a hostage taking in north Israel, if the numbers were not too high. A ‘failed’ rescue with numerous dead civilians would be PR gold for the Zionazi propaganda machine. Hezbollah could be painted as ‘Arab animals’ and the vastly greater number of dead Lebanese ignored. Israel readily sacrificed civilians in the past, in ‘rescue’ attempts at Ma’alot in 1974 and Kiryat Shmona in the same year. The Israelis even have a doctrine, the so-called ‘Hannibal Procedure’ where massive force is utilised in order to kill captured Israeli troops so that they cannot be used as hostages to obtain the release of Palestinian prisoners. Such an attack occurred in Gaza during the last massacre, a huge barrage that killed scores of Gazan ‘two-legged animals’, and then it transpired that the Israeli was always dead, not captured alive. And, as we know, the Zionists actively collaborated with the Nazis, sacrificing many Jews in return for young, vigorous, ones being allowed to migrate to Palestine.
Thank you John Rambo for the Sitrep.
I have a query about two points in your Iran analysis.To quote:
The first point you refer back to the S300 and a source from June to state the reason why the Iranians have delayed the deployment of troops. How so? The Iranians and Russians have agreed the delivery of the S300’s and are working closely on Syria. They share the same intel centre in Bagdad. Senior Iranian army generals have been in Syria in an advisory capacity for some time and Iran has refuted that it has combat troops on the ground. So I don’t quite agree with this point.
The second point, which has no source, is making an assumption of what the Russians will do in regard to Israel and the Saudi’s. Again why would the Russians do anything without discussions with Iran and Syria? In order to bring the Syrian crisis to an end the Russians and anyone else who needs to end this war need to negotiate with all parties. The US/EU/Saudis/Israel and Turkey have so far not shown any trustworthiness.
The point about US media claims and the Cuban army have been refuted by Cuba:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151018/1028693042/cuba-syria-troops-deployment.html
(I think the rumours by US/MSM media in regard to Iran/Cuba conveniently suits the A/Z’s and Neo-Cons who don’t want either the Iran deal to go through or Cuba sanctions to be lifted – all Obama’s legacy before the end of his term).
“. How so? The Iranians and Russians have agreed the delivery of the S300’s and are working closely on Syria. ”
-Russia made an agreement to sell S300 to Iran under Medvedev, but then backed out of the deal, just like France backed out of the Mistral deal.
Liz, we all know what happened with the S300’s in the past under Medvedev and Putin lifted the ban earlier this year and Russia and Iran have agreed a way forward on this. It has all been in the press the last couple of months. So I don’t understand the point you are trying to make?
Russia and Iran are working closely on Syria – again it is all out there in the information sphere and Iran is part of the Bagdad information centre. Hence my query to Mr Rambo. Iranian war ships have even docked in Russia today
From RT’s news line
“08:24 GMT
Iran warships make voyage to Russia’s Astrakhan port – Tehran
Iran has sent its second fleet of warships to Russian territorial waters on Sunday, FNA reported. Joshan (Shield) and Peykan (Arrow) warships and the hi-tech Damavand destroyer will be docking at the Russian port city of Astrakhan in response to the Russian naval group that had docked in Iran in late July to consolidate relations between Tehran and Moscow and preserve security in the Caspian Sea, Iranian officials say. The voyage could last 14 days, Mehr news agency quoted Captain Ahmad Reza Bagheri, the commander of the Iranian fleet, as saying. He added that after the second voyage of Iran’s northern naval fleet to Russia the Iranian vessels would depart for Baku, Azerbaijan.”
Iranian trepidation stems from two issues. One is the S-300 and Russia’s wishy-washy attitude towards its contractual obligations. The other is the Iran-Iraq War.
Russia may be helping Iran now but it wasn’t long ago that Russia had reneged on its previous contract.
Now the story of the S-300 goes like this (for those that already know the issue bare with me):
Although sources are plenty I’ll use only a handful of articles:
https://www.rt.com/news/249229-russia-s300-delivery-iran/
“The contract for supplying S-300 missile systems to Iran was signed in 2007 and implied the delivery of five S-300 squadrons worth $800 million. But in 2010 the contract was put on hold due to the UN imposing sanctions on Iran.”
This contract was signed in 2007, and Iran had already committed a down payment (which to be fair did get a complete refund).
In 2010 Russia decided to stop providing key military technology to Iran:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2010/09/22/Russia-pulls-plug-on-Iran-arms-deal/UPI-49941285186093/
Russia did all this to maintain bilateral relations with Washington and to appear as a responsible international actor. Though unfortunately for Russia this is not the first time it would be thrown under the bus by Washington. Washington went on claiming that the S-300 was indeed a DEFENSIVE weapon and was not impacted by the UN sanctions.
Therefore Russia chose to break its contract with Iran on its own accord, or so Washington put it. Iran had already filed a lawsuit for the breach of contract against the Russian weapons manufacturer; you can imagine such a statement only helped Iran’s case:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-asks-tehran-to-drop-s-300-lawsuit/480884.html
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05/31/306384/us-betrayed-russia-over-iran-s300-deal/
Iranian lawsuit for 4bn in damages (failure to deliver special property):
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2012/iran-120705-rianovosti01.htm
You have to understand from the Iranian viewpoint that this couldn’t have happened at a more unpredictable time. Iranian scientists were being assassinated (presumably by Mossad through car bombs) all over Iran. Iranian leadership genuinely believed some sort of strike was going to happen on their facilities, either by Israel, the US or both. Iran was constantly spotting drones, including some of the latest high-tech drones, inside its territory, such as the captured RQ-170 (at the time a highly classified piece of equipment):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incident
When Iran constructed their Natanz facility they literally buried it out of fear of Israeli air strikes, that’s how real the threat was to them:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_On6h0CRgS28/TNY5KrxvFTI/AAAAAAAAACY/ZvhxpgjRgFY/s1600/Natanz+underground.jpg
So it’s safe to say Iran was feeling more than threatened than ever during this period that Russia decided to not supply a defensive weapon that it already took a down payment for and had signed a contract it would provide.
A lot of people in the Middle East know that Israeli pressure had also a part to play with the blocking of the S-300 transfer. After all Israel has more than once voiced its concern that should Iran receive the S-300 so too will Syria.
The inability for Russia to commit to its own interests annoyed the Iranians so much that they decided to do what they usually do; just reverse engineer the weapon system (some kind of upgraded version of the Bavar 373 ):
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/04/18/406865/Irans-version-of-S300-system-unveiled
Which was probably purchased from Croatia (or Libya):
http://www.menewsline.com/article-1150,1835-Libya-Said-To-Transfer-S–To-I.aspx
Croatia and Iran have been known to have worked together in the naval defense field.
This reverse engineering plan has been successful in the past. Such as replicating the Russian VA-111 supercavitating torpedoes when it failed to reach an agreement to purchase them from Russia directly (most likely again due to external pressure):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoot_%28torpedo%29
Now it’s unclear how much Russia used the S-300 transfer as a psychological card. I can only assume waving that over the heads of Israel would put pressure on Washington to appease the Russians so they don’t hand them over.
However Iran understands if Russia was given a choice between Israeli security or Iranian security it would side with the former. Slowly but surely the Middle East has discovered that there is an upper limit of how much support Russia (and the USSR) is willing to give when it comes to high-tech weaponry. The so called “Monkey Model” weapon systems seen in the Middle East is a constant reminder that Israeli security will always be a priority over other Middle Eastern actors:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_model
Now a related example to the S-300 reneged deal is the French and their refusal to abide by their contract and deliver the Mistrals. France did refund the money but clearly the cancelling of the sale was not beneficial for France and was entirely due to US pressure. It reflects how France will always be a tool by America.
Iran also still remembers the days of the Iran-Iraq War and the USSRs support of Saddam. The only Iranian allies during those dark days were Syria and North Korea. Saddam Hussein was a premium client of the USSR weapons industry, buying all sorts of hardware for his Republican Guard.
Now today is a different story, but that’s because Russia realized the extent the West is willing to go to destabilize the world as seen in Ukraine, Libya, and a level of consistent disrespect towards Russia.
Now Russia will provide Iran with the more updated Antey-2500, something it should have done years ago.
But Iran has been under sanctions at one point or another throughout much of its modern existence. It’s safe to say Iran has had the most experience on reneged deals by other international actors. So Iran doesn’t really trust anyone outside of Syria and maybe North Korea, two nations which stood by it during the Iran-Iraq war and during sanctions that have been on and off since its existence.
That should give a better understanding of how exactly Iran sees Russia.
Dear Mr Rambo,
Thank you for your reply. I do understand the history with Iran.
However, my query was to do with the present day where Russia and Iran are working closely and the two points I highlighted I think, if I may say, are your opinion based on the past. Not what is happening currently – Russia and Iran are working closely – Iran is dealing with the Putin headed governement – which is different from past Russian or Soviet governments. As there were no sources to backup the views – I raised the query. However, I think we may beg to differ on these two points – I think the relationship has changed for the better and everything is co-ordinated very closely. The past cannot be changed, but, the present and future can. Russia cannot do this alone and is trying to avoid another world war by working with other soverign countries who aren’t scared to stand up to the hegemon.
Rgds,
Veritas
Yes,but that doesn’t mean the Iranians have forgotten what happened in the past.It just means the views of the two coincide today and they both want to work together.The one stumbling block though is still Israel.The Russian view on Israel is very complicated.Which I covered in a post days ago.I think Iran and Russia have “agreed to disagree” on that point.And both concentrate on what they both agree on.
Iran is not a country that forgets its past. Even when Medvedev was president, most Iranians (and Middle Easterners really) knew Putin was still running the show as Prime Minister. So telling me that “this time its Putin’s government so its different” doesn’t really fly. Not for the Iranians anyway. And if one can’t use the past to try to predict the behavior of an actor in the future than whats the point of learning history?
It’s the same when Obama told Putin “I’m different, trust me…”. Why would Putin trust the US after all that history?
Iranians need more than just 30 airplanes in Syria or some naval co-operation to feel like Russia is in this for good. It’ll need a hard stance on Israel or in the least for Russia to open up its catalog of more advanced weaponry for purchase to Iran.
And I doubt Russia ever will do that because of the PR-jihad Israel will unleash to demonize Russia to new heights. If the Israelis know one thing its how to market.
One final thing, the Iran-Iraq War, to Iranians, is like World War 2 to the Russians. It was a nasty war that literally forced Iran to stoop to the level of deploying child soldiers in massive human waves to defend their borders against Saddam. Iraqi chemical weapons, Iraqi SCUDS landing in city-centers, an international embargo that literally crippled them….
I’m not saying that Iran completely distrusts Russia , I’m just saying its going to take time for Iran to be more warm to Russia (and not wait 2 weeks to deploy troops to see if the Russians are serious).
They may be working together on this ONE issue (Syria) but Iran has a hundred more issues to worry about, Israel being one of them and what position Russia might have towards that.
After all from the Iranian perspective all roots of evil stem from Israel, from the war in Syria to the Western-driven embargoes.
It’s still unclear, even to Russian analysts, what Russia would do if Israel did decide to commit to an operation in south Lebanon or the Golan Heights. Will Russia really provide air cover for Hezbollah in these regions? Against the US-supported Israel?
” Will Russia really provide air cover for Hezbollah in these regions? Against the US-supported Israel?”
Since “Russia” is controlled by the same IMF/World Bank cabal as practically everywhere else the answer is a resounding NO.
They have already turned back Israeli planes just the other day and I recall a couple of missiles being taken out over the Med 2 years ago: The War on Syria: The September 2013 Military Stand-off between Five US Destroyers and the Russian Flotilla in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Two US missiles were launched towards the Syrian coast, and both failed to reach their destination
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-war-on-syria-the-september-2013-military-stand-off-between-five-us-destroyers-and-the-russian-flotilla-in-the-eastern-mediterranean/5355644
John Rambo,
The Anonymous Lateralizer would advise you not to conflate the Russian Federation with the (now-defunct) Soviet Union. If a week is a long time in politics, what is twenty years?
I think you underestimate the quality of relations which lead to the nuclear deal (much of it done by Lavrov and his team.) While the Supreme Leader has been very vocal about distrust of the US, despite Iran’s agreement with them, no such denunciations have been made about Russia.
I also think you underestimate the degree of coordination it took to launch 26 missiles through Iranian airspace from the Caspian Sea. If the Iranian leadership (especially the IRG) had any real ‘trepidation’ would they ever have permitted such a thing?
I am curious about how you got from the ‘monkey-model’ to the Russian Federation prioritizing Israeli ‘security’ (defined how? and by whom?). You present it in terms of an Iranian/Israeli ‘contest.’ Why do you think the RF has that perspective too?
I may be underestimating the partnership but people are definitely overestimating it just as equally.
What exactly has Russia done for Iran to warrant this bromance love that people here think Russia and Iran have? Entering Syria 4 years later after parts of the country are destroyed beyond recovery? The nuclear deal which wouldn’t have been required had Russia vetoed the security council sanctions from the beginning?
As for the Supreme Leader not criticizing Russia like he does with the US that’s because, as I said before, Iran does trust Russia more than the US and secondly Russia never tried to overthrow the current Iranian government. So you can’t compare one actor which has committed very hostile acts (the US) and another actor who primarily keeps to themselves (Russia).
Iran trusts Russia militarily, its the politics of Russia which gives Iran pause. Right now Russia and Iran are on the same page on Syria ONLY.
Russian Federation might not see this as Israel vs Iran but Iran surely does. I would hope the Russian Federation would factor that in.
If Iran right now decided to commit to a more overt operation to punish Israel for its past transgressions, would Russia stay quiet or disavow Iran? These are things Iranian strategists are asking.
(for example finding ways to arm the West Bank)
Anything that brings in the US and all of a sudden people are unsure how Russia will act. The US fought a war for Kuwait. That’s how important the GCC is to the US. It would fight a war for Israel and most likely Saudi Arabia.
As for the monkey model, it just shows that Israel gets the best equipment from the US (and Russia knows this), Russia (and the USSR in the past) can only sell the Middle East lower-models of what the Warsaw Pact had.
Imagine if Saddam (a great client to the Russian arms industry) actually had a working anti-air system that didn’t melt to US air strikes in the opening hours of the war… I wonder why Russia (post USSR) denied him the purchase of those advanced defensive systems. Could it be Israel?
If Russia took out a big client of the US arms industry I can assure you the United States would strike back economically, politically, and possibly militarily.
Russia, it seems, is not allowed to shift the balance of power in the Middle East. It surely has the technology to do so. And Arab/Persian money is just as good as any other client of the Russian weapons industry (as a matter of fact the only people who can AFFORD the awesome weapons Russia has is Iran and the Arab states because oil/natural gas/an urgent need for security).
Does Russia not like money? If that’s the case I’ll retract my statement about Russia prioritizing Israeli security.
Dear John, Congratulations on your excellent article and well reasoned rebuttals re: Iran. I fully agree with about everything you say concerning (probable) Iranian reservations. Indeed I had planned to make some of the same points in a follow through to my post on Saker’s recent article in the Unz Review. The Iranians have good reason to be chary of an over reliance on Moscow based not only on past experience but on possible future deals with West. While Putin is surely more trustworthy than the collaborationist gang in the saddle when Libya was attacked and the S-300’s withheld, it’s hard to derive much comfort from Moscow’s vacillation and game playing with the people of eastern Ukraine.
This said, however, can’t you agree with my earlier point that the strongest bulwark against US/Saudi/Israeli aggression lies in a dramatic hardening of the alliance between Iran and Russia?
If this included not only the transfer of state of the art AA (Antey 2500?) but squadrons of the best Russian manned interceptors, air to sea and land to sea missiles, the dernier cri of surveillance and jamming devices, wouldn’t it–as I wrote-“disabuse EU nations of any notion that the Gulf oil and gas could continue flowing to them if Iran were attacked”. My view is that Germany and other western European nations would then absolutely veto any attack on Iran or misadventure in Syria.
I had hoped back in 2012 that the Russians might militarize their (rudimentary) naval base at Tartus with marines, some tanks and maybe s-300s and accordingly spent time scanning satellite imagery of the region. As I remember the Al-Ghab plain ,where fighting is said to be raging ,is mainly an irrigated valley on the Orontes river that runs down from Turkey between two mountain ridges. The western ridge (Alawiyin isn’t it) is presumably controlled by the Syrians, the eastern ridges (one I think is Jebel Zawiya) pretty much by the enemy. If the Russians had brought in an airmobile mountain brigade they might be able to cross the river and secure the adjacent eastern ridge just south of the point where it forms the western Turkey-Syrian border..(That’s surely, at least, something an alert staff would be researching.) From that point they would be in position to interdict supplies coming from Turkey down the valley and would threaten to flank not only enemy forces on Al Ghab but (with armored help) the city of Idlib. My point is–armchair fantasy aside- that the Russians need their own troops, in at least brigade–preferably division–strength to lever the enemy out of extreme NW Syria and open the way for clearing Allepo and points east. Had they had them, and used them in concert with shock of their initial bombing campaign,. they might have stampeded the enemy. But the shock, by now, is wearing off and Hez and the Syrians have been through too much to sustain a grinding, attritional offensive from the south.
The notion that the Iranians will save the day under current circumstances,is-for me at least-hard to swallow. What Putin and co have forgone is a chance to initiate enemy demoralization-disintegration at an early stage. What’s in store-amid the confusion of these numerous players–is a stalemate they may (at increasing loss) be slowly winning but in which the Assad
regime is so dependent on them that they cannot leave with its collapse.
In any case, thanks for your acute analysis.
Islamic state is in the process of a feigned retreat, similar to that of Taliban and Iraqis during initial American airstrikes in Afghanistan and Iraq. Islamic State state likely has all best assets hidden and is leaving disposal assets and outright decoys to minimize losses. Will likely end up being a long hard slog at best for any contending ground troops.
Kurds are in dire straits and their victories are little more than ISIS feigned retreat bait. Kurds are only capable of advancing into areas bombed out by Americans. Kurd government is corrupt and is having its energy infrastructure sabotaged by other Kurd militants, and probably ISIS too. Turkey is hostile towards them. If their energy infrastructure faces ongoing attacks, it will not end well for them or their Israeli overlords.
American military is only capable of show of force but cannot make any strategic gains. Even if they were something other than suicidal boy scout parade pillow fighting rapists, Russia and China can easily “pursuade” anyone in the US government to do their bidding, or at least stand down or delay decisions (Snowden, OPM, JCS hacks). American military and Americans in general are in the Hitler’s bunker phase: false narratives and mass suicides. Their collapse will be spectacular.
Israeli military is more or less as effective as the Americans but have better physical security. Unfortunately it is more of a maginot line and can be infiltrated by any of its many enemies. Completely dependent on American backing and is more or less an American style North Korea without a dangerous military (nuke arsenal is madman doctrine bluff).
Iraq has been an Iranian puppet state for some time. Iran, and largely China allow the Americans to stay to give them an illusion of being in control. Iran wants to reactivate Iran-Iraq war but now has Russian, Syrian, and possible Chinese collaboration.
Uncle Bob,
The holocaust narrative has been neutralized: mainly thanks to the net – too many conflicting elements, as well as suppression/control of data has a forced many to question the Hollywood version.
The recognition by the Vatican of the Armenian genocide as the ‘first’ such has undermined the claim to uniqueness. There is also an upsurge in awareness of the Native American genocide, a narrative that directly competes with Zionist control over ‘genocide awareness’ in the US itself. (In a recent case, a First Nations student was expelled by a Zionist Jewish professor for raising genocide awareness about her ancestors. )
There is now the BDS movement. Attempts to counteract it by defining anti-semitism as criticism of Israeli policy and questioning of its colonial project will backfire, as the clamour about ‘false Jews’ – increasingly from Orthodox non-Zionist Jews – rises.
It doesn’t help that known war-criminals like Tony B. Liar are part of such initiatives.
But ultimately , using anti-semitism as a weapon to silence the genocidal policies of the Israeli regime is a contradiction too far: the world is generally aware of Israeli mass-murder and destruction in Gaza.
Control is therefore through finance. To what extent that level of control can be maintained is up for grabs: it relies too heavily on US complicity. There are signs the Pentagon is fracturing on the issue and politically AIPAC is no longer the force it was.
eimar, the election result in Canada removed one total Zionazi Sabbat Goy slave, Harper, and replaced him with another, Trudeau. Trudeau had Zionazi capo, Axelrod, once one of Obama’s early controllers with Rahm Emanuel, as an ‘election adviser’, and Trudeau apparently intends to follow Harper’s lead by criminalising the BDS movement, and possibly all criticism of Israel, as ‘antisemitism'(TM). Their lust for total control and complete obedience from the goyim will be Israel’s downfall. They just cannot help themselves, being the ‘aristocrats of humanity’, after all.
From the concluding portion of F. William Engdahl’s Russia’s Awesome Responsibility, 18-X-2015, http://journal-neo.org/2015/10/18/russias-awesome-responsibility/ :
“… What is being confronted today in Syria by Putin’s Russia is the vulnerable end, the Achilles Heel, of a vast plot to bring all of the countries of the European Union and Russia and China ultimately into a state of war, beginning with floods of Islamic refugees disrupting the normal order of entire nations such as Germany, and also threatening Russia itself with Chechen and other Islamic terrorists returning from ISIS, as well as threatening China via her Uyghur Muslim population.
In an eerie way it is the reverse of the Great Crusades that began under mandate from Pope Urban II at the Council of Clermont in 1095, which turned much of Europe, Byzantium and what is now Ukraine and Russia, into bloody killing fields that laid the basis for the Medieval Dark Ages. This time Islamic fanatic Jihadist terrorists are sweeping into Western Europe, into Russia, into China to destroy the institutions ultimately of stability built over the centuries since the Great Crusades.
In 1095 the Roman Pontiff wanted a war against those who had caused the Great Schism with Rome in 1054. The aim was to capture Constantinople, the center of Orthodox Christianity, where at the time Orthodox Christian monasteries expanded as far as Syria. What resulted over the course of two or more centuries of brutal Crusades, ultimately spread to European Christians, to a Crusade against of so-called Christian Catholic lands against eastern Orthodox Christians, and Christian Catholics warring against Islam.
Today’s Crusade was initiated perhaps as far back as the decision by George H.W. Bush and his sponsors in 1991 to launch a brutal war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq—Operation Desert Storm. Since that point the US military has been implicated in the Yugoslav dirty war from 1991, which among other aims was aimed to show the EU it was impotent without Washington’s military and to claim NATO must stay. Then came the 2001 US war on Afghanistan followed by the war on Iraq, then the numerous wars of “democracy” called Arab Spring after 2010 until Syria today and Ukraine.
Stepping outside the individual wars and viewing events as if from above, it becomes clear that the devilish plan behind these cumulative disturbing wars over especially the past two decades is to destroy the Euro as potential rival to the US dollar as viable reserve currency of the world economy, and to destroy any idea of an EU that is sovereign and independent in foreign and defense policy as the original Maastricht Treaty mandated in 1992. The only way Europe could manage such a challenge to American hegemony would be firmly to integrate their economies, especially Germany’s, with Russia and China and all Eurasia.
For the Sole Superpower it became essential to destroy any possible independent EU that could exist apart from being a vassal to a US hegemony. It became essential to destroy the emergence of the European Economic Union and the Euro as a threat to the prime reserve currency role of the US dollar, hence the Euro crisis around Greece after 2010.
It became necessary to destroy the increasingly strong economic and political ties that were growing rapidly prior to November 2013 between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Russian Federation. Hence the February 2014 US Coup d’Etat in Ukraine and forcing the EU, against her own economic interests, to impose economic sanctions against Russia via US blackmail on Germany and other EU states after 2014. As Stratfor head George Friedman, one of the few studied geopolitical analysts in the US establishment, remarked in a speech in March 2015 to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, a prime focus of US foreign policy for the past 100 years has been about preventing an effective alliance between Germany with its great economic excellence and Russia with its vast resources and geographical extent.
A deep study of history then can tell us volumes about what forces Russia, Germany and the world face today. …”
Very true. For the US elite and their Judaic controllers, (the WASPs being reduced to mere observers, some fulminating, but all, at present, impotent in the face of the tsunami of money power unleashed), the EU was always an enemy to be neutralised. There can only be one hegemon ‘Under God’. For the Zionazis this is partly revenge for the Nazi Judeocide and other pogroms. Just in case, the Jewish Fifth Columns have taken over European politics too, and the Holocaust religion is drummed into children’s heads and opposition to Israel’s barbarities is increasingly relentlessly attacked as ‘antisemitism’. And, as in the USA, the Zionazis are behind the waves of Islamophobic agitation that makes their own destruction of the Palestinians, and the Oded Yinon Plan ordained destruction of all Israel’s neighbours that much more palatable.
Thanks John for very interesting and enlightening sitrep.
“Mediocre” as compared to what?
Neither Russian nor Syrian reports has suggest any kind of time plan for this and that offensive and it´s going much better than two weeks prior to that. Reports suggest that even if the Russian are lying (there is no reason for that, especially without a time plan for stated goals) and half of what they say is true it´s still a h*ll of an advancement from one day to another, so i wouldn´t call it “mediocre”.
It has also been confirmed that Latakia airport is closed for civilian traffic indefinitely which will allow Russia to hike air sorties to 300 a day:
https://mobile.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566049-civilian-flights-halted-at-latakia-international-airport
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/russia-plans-300-syrian-sorties-a-day/story-fnb64oi6-1227573320248?nk=3125ecb6c7f76113d9536a825f306767-1445230540
http://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-press/20151019/281934541792643/TextView
A few more mediocre weeks like this, and we will need to switch topics to the collapse of KSA as opposed to Syria.
It’s only a matter of time, when WW3 will be official …
“… ISIL, which the GCC refuses to continue financing until it comes to heel.”
Oh? And where’s the source for this little gem?
It’s called google, here I took a random English-source. If you’d like an Russian, Arabic, or Persian source please ask. If this is surprise to you than I would highly recommend more literature on the GCCs well-known financing of jihadists (Alms for Jihad, albeit a Western-viewpoint, is a good place to start)
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/saudi-funding-of-isis
Also note how ISIL arrived on Yemen and immediately threatened the Houthi rebels. As of late however they’ve begun to attack the Hadi-government troops, which were immune to ISIL attacks up until Saudi Arabia stopped funding their endeavors.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/isil-claim-bombing-coalition-base-yemen-aden-151006144810019.html (Oct 7th)
The initial landing of ISIL and the threats to “cut the throats” of the Shia Houthis (“and to avenge the Sunnis”):
https://www.rt.com/news/253029-isis-yemen-houthi-sanaa/ (Apr 15, 2015 when everything was still chummy with Saudi Arabia; Saudi Arabia began bombing the Houthis in Yemen on March 2015… cue ISIL entry one month later…. hmmm….)
I guess that’s what happens when you import these fighters into war zones then stop funding them altogether.
Various types of anti-armor tank defenses… Seems Russia is just like the US, they sell junk to other countries.. The same as the useless tanks sold to Saudi and Iraq which can be blown up just like any other tank. But it is much harder to blow up the real US MBT just like it is very hard to hit the real T72’s and theT90’s and armats are almost impossible to disable with most weapons.
http://www.russiadefence.net/t1624-russian-helicopter-atgms
I have long predicted that WWIII will be started in the Middle East and be all about religion. Forget the oil – there is plenty of oil in the US for our own needs. It’s about religion and minerals and imperialism on all levels – we are as guilty as anybody, but not the only perpetrator.
You and the Bible.Sorry,I couldn’t resist that.I didn’t use to agree with that theory(still not a 100% believer).But now with what is happening there ,I’m beginning to think that might be correct.Now,whether, for some governments (cough,cough,in the West) that might actually be a self-fulfilling circumstance.There are the ultra-crazies longing for the “end-times” and “rapture”.So I don’t see those trying very hard to prevent a WW3.The zionists tricked those zealots into supporting Israel dangling the return of the Messiah in front of them.The zionists themselves are mostly not religious.But they know the right “buttons” to push for Christian fundamentalists.The foolishness of Christians falling for that trick really is awe inspiring.It goes against thousands of years of Christian teaching.But in a World like today,history means little when you can hear what you “want to hear”.Hopefully there are enough sane people around to stop them.But I don’t know if there are.
Your point is the sitrep should say Persian Gulf. No need for the second sentence which was being antagonistic to the writer. It has been removed. Mod TR.
What “Arabian Sea”?
Here is the “Arabian Sea”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabian_Sea
That’s actually a (not clearly delimited) part of the Indian Ocean.
The author reffered to it’s extension commonly known as the Persian Gulf, which pindos, and their arab vassals, like to name the “Arabian Gulf”.
Note to censor: PC-ness seems to strike deeply… An ironical/rhetorical question is not an insult, nor “antagonistic” in whatever “negative” sense deemed.
please note moderation policy #3 Any comment designed to make me angry will make me angry and will be removed in anger.
As another moderator than the one your responding to I found this line combative and argumentative. Discuss ideas on this blog and skip personal attacks on moderators or commenters. If you disagree with the moderators please contact thesaker directly at vineyardsaker@gmail.com mod-hs
Sorry, I must’ve had a brain-fart, I mean the Persian Gulf, but so too is the Arabian Sea free of US carriers as well, which I assumed at least they’d keep one in that region for Saudi Arabia to be happy.
I kind of want to see what they said in their comment.
I know this website has a policy for comments but I’m a big boy, I can take what they can dish out.
This guy, “John Rambo” makes a bit suspicious.
Does he really think that ISIS is not 100% the creation of Western intelligence services?
Does he really think that Russia and Iran are not in total agreement, at least in relation to the wars in Syraq?
He also seems way too pessimistic on the prospects of the SAA.
As one Palestinian once told me (though I’m sure he got it from somewhere else):
“Hope is the first step to disappointment”
I feel like too many people think I’m anti-Syria or anti-Russia just because I don’t fall in line and espouse the ultimate capability of the SAA and the RuAF. It’s been 2 weeks since Russia began its super effective bombing campaign. If massive gains haven’t been made so far then what will it take for the SAA to mop up this mess?
It’s friggin Syria man, not the battle of Kursk. I feel like the SAAs strategy is to literally ride out the reserves of the opposition then push for full attack. If that is really the case I’m gonna tell you right now that’s a very shaky strategy.
I don’t doubt the courage of the Syrian infantryman or the elite capabilities of the Russian air force pilots in Syria but to just brush aside the opposition as if they’re gonna fall over is what I like to call “American Thinking“. (See: Korean War, Vietnam War, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq…..)
As for the so called Islamic State. ISIL is too complicated to squarely pin as 100% owned by Western intelligence.
I’m going to use the example of Hamas to hopefully illustrate what I mean.
Hamas was an Israeli creation (even Assange says so). They found a small group of guys who wanted a more fundamental government and helped them get some money and weapons and some organizational skills.
https://www.rt.com/news/243445-assange-west-islamists-us/
It was created to counter the PLO, after all a united Palestinian party can only spell bad news for Israel.
Of course 20 years later this backfired as Hamas evolved away from its Israeli leash and became an enemy (with a bone to pick).
Now there isn’t anyone in Gaza who will say the Hamas is pro-Israel. Yet you can use the same logic you’re using right now for ISIL and say “Oh but Hamas has to be 100% owned by Israel because it got supported during its infancy”. That would be wrong. Organizations do evolve past their original designs.
The same applies for ISIL. Yes the West (+GCC) gave them tons of money and training but to say the West fully controls them is a fallacy. ISIL won’t attack Israel, for sure, but that’s because Israel still has uses to ISIL (free health care in the Golan Heights for one). ISIL is not a dumb player, just because these guys touch their head to the ground 5 times a day doesn’t mean they lack strategic, operational and tactical understanding of their military situation.
I appreciate teh fact that (as far as I can judge) John Rambo takes an entirely dispassionate position in his assessment of what is going on on teh ground and in the hearts and minds (if they have them) of the main players. So I can forward these SITREPs to friends who think I am a Commie nutcase or who (the friends, that is) , although very intelligent, still do not seem to depart from the MSM narrative or other cuckoo lenses (e.g., Putin is trying to destabilize Syria because he just wants to control the gas and oil, etc.). John Rambo’s SITREPs do not appear to be biased in favor of any side but just to be descriptive. That is very valuable because relatively “innocent” people (near virgins, ha ha) can read them without developing a resistance that they might do if reading something that sounds partisan.
Katherine
I also really like John Rambo…I don’t know, but perhaps he’s an ex-military person…and actually they deserve alot of respect from us who have never been behind the barrel of a gun.
Rambo’s theory that ISIS is “out of control” smacks of the so-called “blow back” theory.
Blow back is mainstream propaganda; in reality we have false flag attacks.
The AZE controls ISIS and the other jihadis; don’t kid yourself otherwise.
AZE control of ISIS et al should not be underestimated; just as Israel’s control of Hamas still functions as far as I can tell. For example, when Hamas fires rockets into Israel, who benefits? Certainly not the Gazans. As for US control of ISIS: when Ash Carter threatens Russia with reprisals and then an ISIS cell is captured in Russia soon after, then only coincidence theorists could dismiss that incident.
There’s just too much evidence now that the US now only created the conditions for ISIS but actively trains, transports and supplies these jihadis, via NATO, Israel and the Gulf monarchies. For example, the SAS are driving around the desert dressed as ISIS for goodness sake. That’s a spearhead for terror in any language. They did the same in Iraq; all documented.
You pretty much said what I was saying. Actually the reason I say IS is nato controlled is because of another article I rad about how the USSR ousted US spies.. I can look at that and how US behaves towards its employees.. Especially assets, disposable assets.. US especially spends extra ordinary effort against anyone who turns on them. By which I mean is, if IS was started by the US like google or facebook or twitter etc.. Then taking the seed money and tech and training and going cowboy will not be tolerated. They never have tolerated this.. They will make a point that others know about this. By which I mean is, even if they lose control, those who were responsible pay for it.
But it is a lot simpler than that.. The US is bombing Syrian civilian infrastructure so people cant live and the Syrian army can not survive in the desert.. without water and electricity and road systems.. Those 10000 bombs have reduced much of the Syrian landscape back into desert.
Just looking at the overall picture, the US don’t care what IS does and it grows just like Google.. But anyone else withers and dies and that’s where the effort is put into. I think IRS would consider IS as a paid and bought for employee…
Hamas does benefit when it shoots rockets at Israel.
Whenever domestic approval hits an all-time low for Hamas then the only way it can shift negative attitudes away from itself is to fire a rocket at Israel. Of course if Hamas wasn’t being crushed in the open-air prison known as Gaza I’m sure it would prefer to turn its tiny little strip into a casino paradise for GCC patrons but because it has limited options it can only fire rockets.
A large majority of these rockets hit nothing but sand far from any other human being.
Israel, not understanding proportionality and the need to convince themselves they are a “warrior people” (because WW2), unleashes retribution to avenge Israeli sand. Generally this involves killing Palestinians in Gaza (because Israeli sand is worth more than a Palestinians life in the eyes of Israel).
And just like that by the firing of a single rocket all the ill-will that was projected towards Hamas and its poor governance shifts onto Israel.
The same can apply to the US and its war on terror or the US and its border problem with so called mass immigration of Mexicans. Just shifting attention away from the domestic issues of an unequal economy or bad decisions at the all levels.
It’s why analysts really do fear the day when a nuclear-armed country (like the US or China) begin to loose so much popularity among their own people that ruling parties begin to see themselves lose control of their country. The best way to regain control is a war or blaming outsider/”others”.
The massacres of the Bosnian war was a result of someone (Slobodan) shifting blame on Muslims instead of admitting bad governance. Muslims took your job. Muslims are ruining the country. Muslims are killing the economy. Blah blah blah.
Can’t maintain power? Blame the “other”. If a genocide should occur than aw well.
Saker probably knows more about this topic than I do.
You can not compare Hamas to IS, They have nothing in common more than both have Muslim brotherhood members. IS is a very well organized psyop created by the CIA and western intelligence agencies. Now there are other groups.. like the sex terrorists or the pedophile terrorists and the murdering terrorists.. Who ride the coat tails of IS. So I cant say the west controls these fringe sex organ kiddy terrorists.. But their existence is only possible because of the existence of IS. I bet you take out the top 10 or so people in IS and it falls apart. The last figure I saw said something like over $20 billion to create IS. Everything Russia is doing convinces me they know all this hence they giving warnings for handlers to leave the battle field. We know for sure nato special forces are operating in the county supporting IS. And I think turkey providing WMD’s to IS is now beyond question especially after the interview with the Turkish intelligence chief.
It was all outlined in Seymour Hersh’s ‘The Redirection’ of 2007, and long before that in the Oded Yinon Plan of 1982, itself relying on long-held Zionazi ambitions. Set all the groups in the region, but principally the Shia and Sunni, at each others’ throats, and spread chaos and destruction, then aim your death-squad army of evil psychopaths at China, Iran and Russia. It’s the same tactic used in Iraq (the ‘Salvador Option’) and in Yugoslavia and throughout history. ‘Divide and Rule’. The Yanks want to control the hydrocarbons, Israel wants lebensraum for Eretz Yisrael and the Sauds want Iran destroyed so that they can keep the casinos and brothels of Europe busy for a few more generations.