by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
Even in the context of a post-truth geopolitical environment run amok, Russian President Vladimir Putin telling his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani over the phone that any further Western strikes against Syria may “lead to chaos in international relations” should at least be seen for what it is; a massive understatement.
According to the Kremlin, Putin and Rouhani agreed that what cynics are calling the F.U.K.U.S. – or France, UK, US – strikes have damaged the chances of achieving any meaningful political resolution in Syria.
That translates into Putin and Rouhani acknowledging that Washington, London and Paris are pulling no punches to be back in the game, directly clashing with the painstaking Astana peace process led by Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Significantly, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari reminded acting US Secretary of State John Sullivan, also over the phone, about “the necessity to prioritize finding a political solution and that the Syrian people alone should determine their own fate.”
This means essentially that the “4+1” – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – which were at the vanguard of destroying ISIS, or Islamic State, and other crypto-jihadi outfits in Syria, remain in synch. The counter-terror HQ of the “4+1” was in Baghdad. As much as Baghdad may harbor ideological divergences with Damascus, their common strategy is built upon the fight against Salafi-jihadis of all stripes.
United front
Iraq, alongside Lebanon, was one of the very few nations across the Middle East that condemned the US-UK-France strikes. The GCC petrodollar club – led by the House of Saud – predictably supported it, as their agenda never strayed away from regime change.
Moscow, Damascus, Tehran and Baghdad are showing a united front even as the alleged chemical attack in Douma – the reason for the strikes – is being forcefully debunked. Additionally, pesky questions remain unanswered on why more than 100 missiles were necessary to destroy only three largely empty state-run scientific centers in Damascus and Homs.
Even after Damascus and Baghdad declared victory, the Salafi-jihadi galaxy may be seriously wounded in both Syria and Iraq, but is not extinct. Turkey is still cultivating some nasty connections.
So the key variable in the Astana process – which involves complex economic and military trade offs – remains Ankara, which has no intention of abandoning its sprawling Syrian ops before subduing the Kurdish YPG all around.
Incidentally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, unlike his partners, supported the strikes on Syria. At the same time, Erdogan is itching for the Russian S-400 missile system to be delivered to Turkey as soon as possible, much to the displeasure of NATO.
The real test for the Astana partners will be Idlib – which is already the subject of fierce negotiations. Iran’s special envoy for Syrian affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, is on the record as saying the next war objective is in fact Idlib.
Moscow has prodded Erdogan to deliver the Kurdish canton of Afrin – now run by the Turkish military – to Damascus. There’s no evidence – yet – this will be accepted. Russian forces did leave Afrin before the Turkish offensive. So the Turks, in reciprocity, should abandon their bases across Idlib as well.
The key takeaway is that the US-UK-France troika – not to mention the House of Saud – has absolutely no means to influence these developing facts on the ground.
Iran targeted by financial missiles
If the strikes on Syria have de facto added to the “chaos in international relations” alluded to by Putin, that may be just the opening compared to the main course; the fate of the JCPOA, aka the Iran nuclear deal, to be decided next month.
The European Union foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, ahead of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg, was unequivocal: “The European Union has always made it clear that for us, keeping the agreement in place is vital. It is a strategic interest for the European Union and we will stick to it.”
Pointing to what, for all practical purposes, is a Trump administration May 12 deadline, Mogherini added: “We are doing all we can to work with our American friends to make sure that all parties stay fully committed to the full implementation of the agreement.”
Everyone in Brussels knows Tehran is fully complying with the JCPOA, as stated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 10 successive reports.
Still, France, Britain and Germany are dabbling with the notion of sanctions against Iranian “militias and commanders” fighting on the side of Damascus as a means to appease President Trump. Italy, backed by Austria, is vehemently against it.
The bottom line, as diplomats confirmed to Asia Times, is that Trump’s deadline to “fix” the JCPOA simply won’t be met. What really matters for individual EU nations, as discussed in diplomatic circles, is to increase lucrative business with Iran.
Restricted access to US dollars
All this is happening as Iranian central bank governor Valiollah Seif denounced what amounts to a financial missile strike: “Enemies outside of our borders, in various different guises, are fueling this issue and are going to some effort to make conditions tougher for the people.”
Valiollah was referring to the rial crisis. The Iranian currency was trading at 40,000 to the US dollar in 2017, but has just plunged to 60,000 rials to the dollar. Tehran hastily announced a plan to introduce a currency peg at 42,000 rials.
The widespread view in Tehran is that Wahhabi enemies Riyadh and the Emirates are restricting Tehran’s access to US dollars. Not to mention that some stiff Washington bank financing sanctions remain in effect.
Tehran is facing tough days ahead. Even with the EU remaining committed to the JCPOA, a new batch of Washington sanctions, enthusiastically pursued by John “Bomb Iran” Bolton, could eventually force as many as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market.
If Washington withdraws – unilaterally – from the JCPOA, or insists on alterations Tehran deems unacceptable, Plan B is already on: Moscow and Beijing are willing and able to help Tehran reboot its civilian nuclear program.
That was discussed already in January by the Deputy Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Ahmadian. China is actively considering the possibility of building small nuclear power plants in Iran.
All that points, once again, to the ongoing, massive Eurasia integration project – the cross-pollination of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) – featuring, not by accident, the three key nodes: China, Russia and Iran.
And to add it all up, in this case the European arm of NATO even turned off the “aggression” rhetoric; the dogs of war (“Real Men Go to Tehran”) may bark again, but even that won’t force the EU caravan to desist from doing business with Persia.
Mr. Escobar,
It seems that China could do much more–such as replacing any oil purchases from the GCC states with equal amounts of Iranian oil squeezed out of the market by sanctions, nominally until such time as all GCC oil sales to China are in petrol-yuan.
“The widespread view in Tehran is that Wahhabi enemies Riyadh and the Emirates are restricting Tehran’s access to US dollars”.
If that really matters, why can’t Iran buy some of the immense stacks of dollars that China (for instance) has amassed and probably wants to get rid of?
If China and Russia are willing to help Iran with its peaceful nuclear power programme, why couldn’t they buy Iran’s surplus oil and pay in dollars? That would be a win all round. And if it results in China bhaving too much oil, they could just reduce purchases from Saudi Arabia.
Of course the ‘strategy’ of economic sanctions and withholding dollars, has a limited life span.
Sooner or later, the recipient of the sanction figures out that they don’t really need dollars, and that they will have more oil for themselves, and that oil is useful stuff. And when that happens, well, too bad for the ‘exceptional’ ones.
Like always, key is to have good air defenses.
It looks like China is just watching as western powers, Russia and Middle East nations fight. And hit the jackpot.
The choice is China hitting the jackpot or F.UK.US. Just take note of the adagium “What’s in a name” and realize that the former is better than the latter.
Now it’s pretty obvious what is happening. The neocons in Washington were not sure whom to attack, North Korea or Iran. They began with North Korea, sending the US Navy on a fools errand and having Kim laugh in their face. Now we are apparently going to have negotiations between the US and North Korea, with the US even considering opening an Embassy. This means that the Iran option for a military attack is being analyzed. Trump wants to cancel that nuclear deal with Iran and offer a new (prepostrous) one, knowing Iran would reject it. He then has reason for war, a “casus beli”. However, the neocons in Washington better think twice. Iran has a powerful military, while Trumps latest attack against Syria ended as a comedy, with a heap of his “high tech” being blown in the air by old Soviet missile systems. The Russians did not even interfere directly, as there was no reason.
On this occasion I cannot agree with Pepe Escobar that Iran will be facing tough days ahead, because it is being restricted to US dollars. Iran can sell it’s dollars in Chinese yuan. Also, it would appear that in the months ahead Iran might join the Eurasian Economic Union, which no doubt will give the neocons in Washington additional motive for a military attack. As for the EU, I don’t see it easily breaking off economic ties and investments in Iran.
Should Trump attack Iran this spring or summer, then he will certainly place a few more nails in the EU and NATO coffins. I don’t see European establishments and ordinary people easily accepting a new US war fought, yet again, under prepostrous excuses. However, are the neocons in Washington capable of understanding all this ?
probably not.
This quote by Emperor Hadrian from 2000 years ago is a pretty good description of the US of AIPAC at the moment at least:
‘I doubt if all the philosophy in the world can succeed in suppressing slavery; it will, at most, change the name. I can well imagine forms of servitude worse than our own, because more insidious, whether they transform men into stupid, complacent machines, who believe themselves free just when they are most subjugated, or whether to the exclusion of leisure and pleasures essential to man they develop a passion for work as violent as the passion for war among barbarous races. To such bondage for the human mind and imagination I prefer even our avowed slavery.’
Memoirs of HADRIAN, Margaurite Yourcenar.
Pepe, excellent take on the situation, as usual. I have a thought on Erdogan and the S-400. I believe his urgent need for them is motivated by him thinking that by using four batteries he can ground or destroy all Greek air-force and thus he will have a free reign in eastern Med. Which means he can move forward with his plans to grub all the Greek Islands with gas and oil. Some Greek politicians called for the same (S-400), but unfortunately the all Greek governments since 1950 are owned by the hegemon and do not dare getting close to Russia. Also, Erdo is now being threatened with sanctions, if he goes ahead with the plan. The only reason why Greece ended up with Cyprus’es S-300 is the Brit’s pressure forcing Cyprus (colony and such) to pass them along to mother Greece. But, there is something good about Erdo’s moves. Greece decided: it’s time to dust off the unused S-300, talk to Russia about getting some training, modernize and get some missiles for them. This way alt least they’ll have something that is more useful than useless “patriot system”.
The basic terms of the JCPOA was that Iran curtail their nuclear program. And the West and the UN would cancel their anti-Iranian sanctions. The US hasn’t kept to the deal (no surprise there). And now the Europeans are trying to have their cake and eat it too. They put on more sanctions “for other reasons”.To replace the others they removed.And they expect Iran will accept that and keep to their terms in the deal.I thought at the time the deal was made,it was absurd. There was “no possibility” that the US would keep to their deal. They even publicly said they wouldn’t,so no surprise there.And anyone who has seen how the European states have kowtowed to the US for decades,was a fool to think they won’t do the same now. Iran needed to,just as Russia needs to,understand that you can’t make a deal with Western states.And expect they will honor that deal.
I don’t know why Iran wants to deal with the West. But for some reason they do seem to want that.Don’t they know that when you trade with the West,they end up owning you.They don’t see trade as a nonpolitical exchange of needed goods between equal states. They see trade, as between master and slave.Just another way to control the non-Western side.Is there one single item that Iran can’t get from Russia,China,or India.That they get from the West? Not the same brand item of course,but an item that does the same thing.Don’t they see that every trade deal they make with the West just ties them as a servant to those Western countries (the same question should be asked of Russia and China as well).
In today’s World, nations are either slave or free. And if a nation wants to be free they must align themselves against the West.There is no doubt that in the short term their economies will suffer from that. But if they don’t accept that short term damage, they will see their economies suffer long term damage from Western control.In Iran’s case making aircraft buying deals with the EU or US,instead of with Russia or China.Enriches the Western companies involved,while giving the West more control over Iran.Iran accepting to trade using the US dollar,gives the US a “choke hold” over their economy. Iran could announce that they will only accept Euro’s or Yuan in their foreign trade.And if other states attacked by the West would do the same the US dollar would collapse Worldwide.The big question is “why” they and other states have not done so.The irony is that,its these very states under US attack,who are propping up the US dollar.Which allows the US to finance those very attacks on them.If Russia,China,Iran,Syria,Venezuela (and Iraq if it can be convinced to),would totally ban the US dollar in their trade.And most especially in their energy exports (and in China’s case,their imports of oil and gas).The US dollar would be in horrible shape.The petro-dollar would be damaged probably beyond saving.Its criminal that they haven’t done that by now.I’m reminded of the old saying by Lenin,that is now turned on its head,”the capitalists will sell us the rope we hang them with”. While today its the US that give their enemies the dollars in trade, that is used to control them.And they take them.
Why haven’t many states gotten rid of the dollar as of yet?Well, for one thing I think there’s a lack of knowledge/understanding about how economic and financial systems work, among both the general populace and the political leadership of many countries.For another there’s what happened with Iraq/Saddam and Libya/Gaddafi, which likely discourages such actions by other countries.And in the case of China, they prefer to make changes gradually instead sudden,shocking moves and they are gradually getting rid of the dollar.
American Indian Chiefs have long warned the world that the Great White Chiefs in Washington speak with forked tongues.
Iran wants to deal with the West (Anglo-Zios) for the same reason that China and Russia wants. The upper class in Iran is emohatuated with “Western values” and would prostitute itself, not even for money, but just to get an approaching nod from the Masters of The Universe. In Iran, they call that strata of the population, who are out of political power but still yield a lot of economical clout, “Westoxificated”.
I also believe, that just like Asad’s wife, maybe himself as well most of them get the education in the West (namely Oxford, etc, etc..)
China is between a rock and a hard place.
They are on the brink of breaking the financial hegemony (thus the entire hegemony) of the US dollar (and the Empire hegemony), but they hold almost astronomical amount of US$ debt!
At the same time, there (according to me) seems to be highly ready demand to jump the rotting/sinking ship of the floundering US dollar, and jump on to anything that looks like it can float.
The holy trinity of a currency linking the largest (physical) economy, with (the largest importer of) oil, backed by gold bullion is armour-plated tanker looking for people to jump on board!
So…
… a management challenge.
China seems to be buying up long-term performers and industries that supply them, in the United States, i.e. the largest pork processing supply-chain in the U.S.A., and, if I were them, I would be using my U.S. dollars to buy gold, from the U.S. at a rate to minimize my cost, over a comparatively long program timeline, i.e. ten years.
But…
… there is all of this demand, now!
Increased buying of gold will push up the demand/cost and potentially (likely) trigger a non-sustainable run up of bullion.
Nonetheless, they are going to have to reassess the global reality of the accelerating meltdown/collapse of the U.S. thus the empire, probably resulting from psychotic obsessive pretension of ‘exceptionalism‘ among… just too many people; if there are too many, then its boring…. not so exceptional, just psychotic obsessive, like an assault rifle loaded and its owner is on crystal meth!?!
But these Chinese analysts and governmental policy and decision-makers are fully capable of actually fulfilling their responsibilities, unlike some empire nation-states, and it is likely that they will follow the right path, whether it be a change to their current approach, or standing pat.
Iran has a perfect situation to change all oil contracts to petro-yuan denomination, a win-win scenario in many ways for Iran and China.
Iran has to get out of the entire $$$ sphere of influence, it may hurt, but not as much as the ongoing torture by the manipulators.
We are witnessing the initial death-frenzy of the empire in it’s current formula.
It cannot ‘get over it’s diminished suasion-by-intimidation-and-overwhelming-military-advantage on the world stage.
According to RT Russia and Iran have an oil-for-goods agreement, no dollars involved.
https://www.rt.com/business/424541-russia-iran-oil-supplies/
Russia needs to return to using a state-owned bank as its central bank and get rid of the privately owned IMF-Rothschild controlled Bank of Russia, which was put in place during the rape of Russia orchestrated by the CIA.
Exactly. There is nothing bigger in the retaliation sphere that Russia could do than to make its central bank publicly owned.
It will take a constitutional amendment but Putin just won a landslide so the time is perfect to do it.
“This means essentially that the “4+1” – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – which were at the vanguard of destroying ISIS, or Islamic State, and other crypto-jihadi outfits in Syria, remain in synch”
This is the key here.