In a well choreographed Sochi summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin defines a peaceful future for Syria after the liberation of the country from militants
by Pepe Escobar of the Asia Times (cross-posted by special agreement with the author)
The main take away of the trilateral, two hour-long Russia-Iran-Turkey summit in Sochi on the future of Syria was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin:
“The presidents of Iran and Turkey supported the initiative to convene an All-Syrian Congress for national dialogue in Syria. We agreed to hold this important event at the proper level and ensure the participation of representatives of different sectors of Syrian society.”
In practice, that means Russian, Iranian and Turkish foreign ministries and defense departments are tasked to “gather delegates from various political parties, internal and external opposition, ethnic and confessional groups at the negotiating table.”
Putin stressed that “in our common opinion, the success on the battlefield that brings closer the liberation of the whole of Syrian territory from the militants paves the way for a qualitatively new stage in the settlement of the crisis. I’m talking about the real prospects of achieving a long-term, comprehensive normalization in Syria, political adjustment in the post-conflict period.”
So many red lines
Diplomatic sources confirmed to Asia Times much of the discussions in Sochi involved Putin laying out to Iran President Hassan Rouhani and Turkey President Recep Erdogan how a new configuration may play out in a constantly evolving chessboard.
Behind diplomatic niceties, tensions fester. And that’s how the current Astana peace negotiations between Russia-Iran-Turkey interconnect with the recent APEC summit in Danang.
In Danang, Putin and Trump may not have held a crucial bilateral. But Sergey Lavrov and Rex Tillerson did issue a joint statement on Syria – without, crucially, mentioning Astana; instead, the emphasis was on the slow-moving UN Geneva process (a new round of talks is scheduled for next week).
An extremely divisive issue – not exactly admitted by both parties – is the presence of foreign forces in Syria. From Washington’s perspective, Russian, Iranian and Turkish forces must all leave.
But then there’s the Pentagon, which is in Syria without a UN resolution (Russia and Iran were invited by Damascus).
There’s no evidence the Pentagon plans to relinquish military bases set up in territory recaptured by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), contiguous to Syrian oil and gas fields. Defense Secretary James Mattis insists US forces will remain in Syria to “prevent the appearance of ISIS 2.0.” For Damascus, that’s a red line.
Then there are Ankara’s red lines. For Erdogan, it’s all about the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its People’s Protection Units (YPG), who lead the SDF. Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin takes no prisoners; “The question of the PYD-YPG remains a red line for Turkey.”
Unlike Ankara, Moscow does not consider the PYD/YPG as “terrorist organizations.” The PYD will certainly be invited to Sochi. And there’s not much Ankara – which is under tremendous economic pressure – can do about it.
On the Iranian front, what Tehran wants in Syria is not exactly what Moscow-Washington may be bargaining about.
Lavrov has strenuously denied there has been a US-Russia deal to expel Iranian-supported forces from southwestern Syria – stressing they were legally invited by Damascus. Since July the official position of the Iranian Foreign Ministry is that the current cease-fires should be extended to the whole nation, but “taking the realities on the ground into account.” No word on Iranian forces leaving Syria.
A well-timed affair
The Sochi summit was choreographed to the millimeter. Previously, Putin held detailed phone calls with both Trump and Saudi King Salman (not MBS); the emir of Qatar; Egypt’s Sisi; and Israel’s Netanyahu. Parallel to a meeting of Syria-Russia military top brass, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dropped in; a non-surprise surprise Sochi visit to tell Putin in person that without Russia’s military campaign Syria would not have survived as a sovereign state.
The facts on the ground are stark; the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) – fully expanded, retrained, re-equipped and re-motivated – recaptured Aleppo, Palmyra, Deir Ezzor and almost the whole southeast; borders with both Iraq and Lebanon are open and secured; cease-fires are in effect in over 2,500 towns; Turkey desisted from years of weaponizing and supporting “moderate rebels” and is now part of the solution; ISIS/Daesh is on the run, now no more than a minor rural/desert insurgency.
Daesh is almost dead – although there could always be a Return of the Walking Dead, with some obscure neo-al-Baghdadi posing as Caliph-in-exile. Iranian President Rouhani has declared the end of Daesh. Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi was more realistic, saying Daesh has been defeated militarily but he will only declare final victory after jihadi goons are conclusively routed in the desert.
The final showdown will be the Battle of Idlib – where thousands of Jabhat al-Nusra remnants/cohorts are holed up. Turkey has troops in idlib. Putin and Erdogan have certainly negotiated Ankara’s stance. So it’s up to the Turkish Ministry of Defense to convince opposition outfits not allied with the Nusra nebulae to be sitting on the table in Sochi.
On an operational level, as I ascertained in Baghdad earlier this month, this is what’s happening; IRGC advisers; the Iraqi Army; Hashd al-Shaabi, known as the People Mobilization Units (PMUs); the SAA; and Hezbollah have been working in synch, as part of the “4+1” mechanism (Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah). Their counter-terrorism HQ is located in Baghdad.
Pipelineistan all over again
Putin told Rouhani and Erdogan in Sochi about the “commitment of the Syrian leadership to the principles of peaceful settlement of the political crisis, its readiness to carry out constitutional reform and stage a free, UN-supervised election.”
This tall order will be open to vast scrutiny. And that brings us to the key opposing party; the House of Saud, and more specifically MBS’s stance.
The so-called High Negotiations Committee (HNC) – which is essentially the Syrian opposition factions regimented by the House of Saud – is in disarray. Its leader, Royad Hijab, was recently fired in murky circumstances. These factions met again in Riyadh, parallel to Sochi, with the Saudis basically reduced to screaming “Assad must go.”
MBS’s war on Yemen is a disaster – not to mention creating a horrendous humanitarian crisis. The blockade of Qatar degenerated into farce. The blatant interference in Lebanon via the Hariri-as- hostage saga also degenerated into farce. Saudi Arabia lost in both Iraq and Syria. MBS’s next foreign policy moves are wildly unpredictable.
Capping it all up, a key dossier apparently was not discussed in Sochi; who’s going to finance the rebuilding of Syria’s economy/infrastructure.
Turkey and Iran can’t afford it. Russia might help only marginally. China has made it clear it wants Syria as a Levantine hub in the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – but that’s not a priority compared to Pakistan or Iran. The EU is focused on its massive internal psychodrama. And the Gulf – essentially Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are fiercely anti-4+1.
With Sochi in mind, a further joker in the pack is how a Trump-Putin possible entente will be regarded by the Pentagon, the CIA and Capitol Hill – which will always refuse the notion of a Putin-led peace process and no “Assad must go” to boot.
Most of what lies ahead hinges on who will control Syria’s oil and gas fields. It’s Pipelineistan all over again; all wars are energy wars. Damascus simply won’t accept an energy bonanza for the US-supported SDF, actually led by the YPG.
And neither would Russia. Apart from Moscow holding on to a strategic eastern Mediterranean base, eventually Gazprom wants to be an investment partner/operator in a newly feasible Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, whose main customer will be the EU. Beyond Sochi, the real – Pipelineistan – war has only just begun.
I don’t believe the war was mainly by the “pipelineistan”, the war was and will follow by the zionist israhell who decided to kill hezbollah and to put away Iran.
“The US military footprint in the Middle East has swelled some 33 percent in just the past four months, according to a new Pentagon report.
Since the beginning of July, the 40,517 troops and US Department of Defense (DoD) civilian population prosecuting war and other security missions in the Middle East has grown to 54,180, a rise of 33 percent, according to DoD personnel and workforce report data.
The numbers do not include a sharp increase in US troops — from some 11,000 to 15,000 according to military.com — deployed to hotspots in Afghanistan, where Washington has been at war for over 16 years.
The publicized troop increases in one of the most unstable parts of the world are thought to herald further escalations, as observed by the largest US troop deployment to the region in five years.
Pentagon numbers detailed in the November 17 quarterly report show that every country in the region that hosts a US military presence has seen a significant recent increase in DoD civilians and US troops.”
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201711231059382105-us-military-rise-in-middleeast/
If the jews try to “put away” Iran, it will be like taking the needle – they will be swarmed by all the forces that have defended Syria, plus many, many more. Frankly, I hope they will try ;-)
Great work as usual Pepe. You are the window on the world for the many of us who want the facts of what is taking place outside the Zionish confabulatron.
On the surface this looks like another brilliant VVP countermove to paralyze the possible Saudi/Israeli attack on Iran that Saker was fearing last week.
I fully agree with THAT! But the jews are only part of it; and you can be damned sure they are thinking, primarily, of the security of jewland. But the BIG MAN is still BIG OIL and it will continue to be that until the arrival of a replacement/s for fossil fuels, Imperial Collapse, or global revolt of “the street”. I think we all have a pretty good idea of which of those it will be.
the map is such a one that I have it in my bible – the holy land – some different names in the land now called Turkey –
WikiLeaks paper shows probable signs that the US was preparing for a proxy war in Syria as early as 2006
http://bit.ly/2AV193F
“Here it is, right from the horse’s mouth! Qatar’s former prime minister spills his guts about how his country worked with Saudi Arabia and Turkey under the direction of the United States – meaning then the Obama Administration – to funnel arms and money to jihad terrorists in Syria:”
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/11/03/bombshell-revelation-us-saudi-culpability-creating-isis-ignored-mainstream-media-trump.html
compare with with delusional summit in EU today
“Theresa May warned Europe must be ‘open eyed’ about the threat from Russia as she promised would help secure the eastern borders after Brexit.
The Prime Minister has dramatically escalated her warnings about Vladimir Putin in recent weeks and branded Russia ‘hostile’ in Brussels today.
Arriving at a security summit in Brussels, Mrs May said Russia wanted to ‘tear our collective strength apart’.
Theresa May (pictured in Brussels today) warned Europe must be ‘open eyed’ about the threat from Russia as she promised would help secure the eastern borders after Brexit
The Prime Minister has dramatically escalated her warnings about Vladimir Putin in recent weeks and branded Russia ‘hostile’ in Brussels today
Today’s talks will discuss both security and bolstering the economies of eastern European countries held back by the threat of interference.
Mrs May will set out how Britain is providing £50 million this financial year to support reform and security in the region through projects like tax reform in Moldova and de-mining in Ukraine.
Theresa May flies into Brussels to launch a 10-day offensive…
The UK is also spending £100 million over five years in the Eastern Neighbourhood to counter disinformation.
Leaders from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine also due in Brussels today.
As she arrived at the talks, Mrs May said: ‘The summit here today is all about taking stock and looking ahead to see how we can tackle the shared challenges together on security and development.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5113471/May-vows-open-eyed-Russian-threat.html#ixzz4zL6Chqcu
I think our national health service is rather more deserving of £100 million….no idea why endless wastes of money is not being picked up by some-are there any- responsible politicians.Budget this week has confirmed a fall in household incomes for several years to come………. May is the next “Merkel” syndrome………ie deserves to go………..hope Boris J gets enlightened when he meets ” Moscow’ ………maybe he thinks there will be a ‘kompromat’,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,oooppss..no one there mentions financial consequences for EU of illegal sanctions against Russia?
Sighs.
“Following the victory of the Syrian army and its allies over the “Islamic State” group in the town of Albu Kamal in the north-east of the country, the road has been opened for the first time since the declaration of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut and become safe and non-hostile to the four capitals and their rulers.
https://southfront.org/us-buffer-zone-northeastern-syria-l…/
wow
more discussion here too
https://southfront.org/how-will-iran-russia-and-turkey-react-to-u-s-decision-to-stay-in-syria-after-defeat-of-isis/
‘No rules war’ is the curse of the 20th century.In the good old days ,one can even take part or just be an observer for or against.Nowadays all you have is reports of bombing here and there and of ‘good guys’ killing ‘bad guys’ and so on. Nevermind the trouble to figure out what is ‘fake’ and what is ‘true’ and in addition to ‘false flags’ operations of all sorts.As a 9to5er where do i look for what is actually happening ,the UN is silent or muddled in all geopolitical situation.Every news media are singing from separate narrative spread sheets.
Every morning this 9to5er has to swim in the confusing maelstrom of info that is so easily available ,just to figure out who the heck is the ‘good’ guys and who is the ‘public enemy numbero uno’ .After listening to all this ‘talking heads’ and their current narrative of ‘good vs bad’ kool aide, one is just left dazzled..dang, when are they going to stop any killing and why is it necessary even…me think we are all gone mad..blame hollywood for programming our mind to take war as given and normal.
My dad was working for the army ,looking back i felt awe everytime i looked at his tiny medal, now he is six feet under and thank god for that.First thought after leaving school, was to be in the army but they did not pay much..thank god for that too, now with all these private armies and proxies paying ludicrous amount, my prayers go to the young ones..we are doomed.The stock market needs these weapon manufacturers ,they need war and war needs the proxies as democracies don’t want ‘their’ children killing others,so its a vicious cycle and what goes around comes around and ..we all deserve it…especially with modern egoistic caligulas.
Nice overview from Pepe.
What remains to play out is the diminishing stature of the US. It now faces a large chunk of the multi-polar world, all nations on the rise, while it undeniably is in decline. The US is holding no cards except a few troops in the NE Syria surrounded by hostiles and with no supply lines, trying to maintain a presence – see Moon of Alabama for a good overview of those realities on the ground:
Syria – This U.S. Occupation – Or “Presence” – Is Unsustainable
The US is going to be beaten at the negotiating table, and its soldiers will eventually have to withdraw from their untenable position. They think no one will kill US troops? It’s happened before, in plenty of places. They seem to be daring history to do it again. The Pentagon plays chicken here, to bolster its pride as it tries to minimize the humiliation of defeat. In every game of chicken and every spoiling action the Pentagon has managed to sneak onto the battle field, we’ve seen the generals do nothing but back down when seriously confronted with death.
Let the record show they asked for it.
It’s also worth adding that negotiations are the process of shifting positions, and Adam Garrie at the Duran has a very good analysis of how Russia, Syria and Turkey are each potentially shifting with regards to the Kurds:
Erdogan hints at normalisation with Syria – says Ankara and Damascus have common enemy
If in fact the Kurds come to be divided into “Terrorist Kurd” and “Moderate Kurd” at Astana, then the US ploy with its Kurdish proxies in NE Syria will be even more marginalized, and the US will find itself even more isolated. And sadly, the Kurds will dig themselves deeper into a hole, again. But Syria as always will offer forgiving terms for the laying down of guns.
We have already seen, as Pepe illustrates, precise orchestration of the peace discussions. We can look forward to some very elegant moves in the weeks to come.
The US has realised this and now saying will fight Kurds in Turkey:
https://www.rt.com/news/410899-erdogan-trump-fighting-terrorists/
US says will stop funding/sending arms to Kurds in Syria and fight Kurdish separatists in Turkey – hmm – someone realising can’t lose Turkey in NATO and wants to interfere with relationship with Russia/Iran/Syria….beware Erdogan – remember the attempted coup…..also a telling line from the White House
“…The leaders also discussed the purchase of military equipment from the United States,” the White House said……”
Doesn’t want Turkey to have the S400……
Another aspect of the zionazi attempt at full spectrum dominance:
Fifty Percent of War Being Fought Against Russia is Information War – Researcher
https://sputniknews.com/us/201711241059406735-facebook-information-war/
“Facebook’s intention to construct a web page to let users see which Russian propaganda accounts they have liked or followed is an attempt by the US government to deny people access to information that is truthful and accurate, Joe Quinn, internet essayist, researcher and author, said in an interview with Sputnik.
Sputnik: Who exactly could determine whether this information is coming from Russia?
Joe Quinn: Facebook will identify something that comes from Russia. Any information [critical] of the US government will be determined as Russian propaganda, Russian lies, whatever, even though you can’t define that it came from a Russian IP address. […] The American government is doing a lot of things that are not in the best interest of the American people and it would rather that there is no one who would highlight this information to the general public. They are actually attempting to smear the truth in their effort to control all information.
Sputnik: Could this be called an attempt to manipulate public opinion, and suppress opposing views?
Joe Quinn: Absolutely yes! [This is meant] to deny people access to accurate information. Fifty percent of the war that is now being fought against Russia is an information war. It is extremely important for the US government to control information, but this is actually making people push back and [look for alternative sources of information] and learn what’s actually happening in the world.”
The war in Syria was fought so that Syria would be broken up as a sovereign country. The reason was twofold. The territory would be used for Qatari shipped gas outside the Middle East, and also for the creation of an ISIS caliphate, to be subsequently used against Russia and others, all under the control of the US and Saudi Arabia. The plan failed. ISIS has almost been crushed, while Qatar has turned towards Iran. The US intends to stay in Syria, holding on to its military basis, contrary to international law, no doubt thinking of new ways how to topple President Assad. Not wise. It’s losing on the international scene, while Putin, “the peacemaker” is gaining. The question is does the US have the strength to abandon its globalist interests on behalf of Wall Street. As things stand now, highly unlikely. However, I don’t see this situation lasting permanently, as from the financial and political point of view, its impossible.
yes, war against Syria was planned well before 911, as Syria is in that list of ‘7 countries in 5 years’ they openly bragged about right after 911, (but before they went into Ghanistan in October, NOT even on the list mind you), that were up for some righteous ‘regime change’.
this note:
on 12 December 2003, President George W. Bush signed a declaration of war against Syria, the Syrian Accountability Act. After a series of attempts to open hostilities (the Arab League summit of 2004, the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005, the war against Lebanon in 2006, the creation of the Islamic Salvation Front in 2007, etc.), US special forces took the offensive at the beginning of 2011, organising a hoax intended to make people believe that this was an interior Syrian «revolution». After two vetos by Russia and China in the Security Council, the United States finally accepted a peace treaty in Geneva which they signed, in the absence of the Syrian delegation, on 30 June 2012.
just the images and the commands
I praise the precision of V.V.’s scheduling
in it’s accord with lights of the three
http://astromundanediary.blogspot.de/2017/11/november-22-3-presidents.html
from above:
There’s no evidence the Pentagon plans to relinquish military bases set up in territory recaptured by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), contiguous to Syrian oil and gas fields. Defense Secretary James Mattis insists US forces will remain in Syria to “prevent the appearance of ISIS 2.0.” For Damascus, that’s a red line.
lots of articles out past few days exactly this topic:
nov 23
A member of a Syrian opposition party, Tarek Ahmad, has commented on a recent media report about an indefinite US military presence in the country, which had been slammed as an “aggression” by Damascus, after the defeat of the Daesh terrorist group.
US Aims to Control Syrian Oil by Keeping Military Presence – Opposition Member
https://muraselon.com/en/2017/11/us-aims-control-syrian-oil-keeping-military-presence-opposition-membe/
Never-Ending Supply: US Continues Arms, Heavy Vehicle Shipments to SDF
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201711231059373042-us-supplies-arms-vehicles-to-sdf/
“The US supply of armored vehicles and heavy weapons to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is not slowing down.
“The US sent us 120 armored cars and weapons, including submachine guns, howitzers, mortars, which were brought overland from Northern Iraq, then fetched to the city of Hasek, and from there they were taken to the territory east of Deir ez-Zor, which was liberated from Daesh by our detachments,” the SDF spokesman told Sputnik Turkey.
In addition to weapons, the spokesman said that the SDF received a large number of Hummer armored vehicles.
“This time, in addition to weapons, a large number of Hummer armored vehicles were delivered as we are experiencing a significant need for them,” the spokesman said.
According to previous reports, since the decision was made to provide military assistance to the SDF Kurdish forces, the US has supplied them with a total of 1,900 trucks full of heavy weapons and armaments.”
Trump Tells Erdogan He Ordered to Stop Arms Supplies to Syrian Kurds – Ankara
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201711241059409060-trump-erdogan-no-arms-kurds/
But is the word of israel’s pathetic butt toy believable to any but the most delusional and gullible any more? :-D
Trump Tells Erdogan He Ordered to Stop Arms Supplies to Syrian Kurds – Ankara
That claim now makes sense in its timing at least because despite a dozen variants on what happened Nov 18, looks like a message was sent.
updated supposed info on that ‘CIA buzz/coup’ by the military on orders from trump on Saturday 18th 1 week ago.
syrianperspective.com/2017/11/dr-assad-bids-farewell-to-charlie-rose-and-riyaadh-hijaab-as-syrian-forces-devastate-wahhabist-terrorists-dr-assad-in-russia-in-warm-welcome.html#comments
Helluva plan & a great deal (for themselves).
looks like they locked up more oil supply for their war machine*, to go with that yuge increase in us troops in the M.E. theater area according to that report posted, just when the price is in a clear uptrend.
To note: highest price, a bump under $60, since that 2015 $60 flat area in May-June 2015! if it breaks through there skyward, next stop looks like that $105 area, since that’s where the collapse cliff started before that washout bottom of jan/2016.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1
*anyone remember the story posted just a month ago about the purchase from israhell of that active tank armor protection system for the uninvited occupiers’ army (same idea as the Syrian one they developed with great success). Now just why now, & where are those tanks going to be used?
The Elephant In The Room — will the Syrian Arab Army move east of the Euphrates and confront the SDF to regain control over its territory and oil fields?
If yes, will the Russians support them? (I suspect not — the US would veto a UNSC resolution calling it to leave Syrian territory where it is situated contrary to international law — then what?)
Due to the illegal presence of the US and the EU in Syria, Syria and its allies do not need a UNSC declaration to expel the occupiers. In accordance with international law, namely the right to defend ones’ own territory from uninvited guests, they can choose to bulldoze them over at any moment.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201711241059383818-syria-opposition-riyadh-meeting/
Latest summary russian and cairo participants left…..Lavrov is keen to support saudi in sorting out a unified opposition..kinda motivating them..but maybe that is only as long as they are able to do such????????
Looks like the OPCW isn’t going to back the US this time:
https://sputniknews.com/world/201711241059415284-us-syria-rejection-opcw/
Do they sense the way the wind is blowing in Syria?
Also interesting article about a previous “cover-up” by the US/Israel and Co. on Syrian nuke evidence – it seems history keeps repeating itself……
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/19/how-syrian-nuke-evidence-was-faked/
re: kurdistan.
this site rarely mentioned, has interesting news from there.
http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/231120174
SULAIMANI, Kurdistan Region – Gorran unveiled its roadmap for the establishment of an interim government the party wants tasked with preparing for talks with the Iraqi government, preparing for free and fair elections, and making changes to Kurdistan’s financial, security, and diplomatic bodies.
Gorran is Kurdistan Region’s second-largest party with 24 seats in the parliament following the KDP with 38 seats. The PUK has 18 seats in the 111-seat chamber.
The would-be interim government has to establish a “strong” negotiation team from the interim government and the parliament tasked with holding dialogue with Baghdad on the basis of the Iraqi constitution.
it’s 2000.
The US Defense Department is likely to announce publicly that there are over 2,000 American troops in Syria, despite earlier reports that put that number at around 500.
According to two US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity Friday, the Pentagon will make the announcement as early as Monday, Reuters reported.
presstv.com/Detail/2017/11/24/543376/US-Syria-US-troops-Daesh-
The Zionist commanders of the US military have realized that Syria has failed, so they are now shifting ISIS members to Afghanistan, in order to attack Iran (the ultimate target, of which Syria was a means to an end) from the east. The US is already bombing the Taliban weapons caches, allowing ISIS to gain control more and more territory. This is a replay of the play book used in Syria in the early days.
The US claims to be bombing Taliban drugs labs, but the only drugs labs allowed in Afghanistan are those of the CIA. The Taliban in fact reduced drug production capacity greatly during their rule. The US targetting video showed clear secondary explosions indicating explosives were hit.