https://southfront.org/syrian-armys-creeping-offensive-on-idlib-never-ending-ceasefires-explained/
A new ceasefire in the Greater Idlib region of northwestern Syria started on January 12, at 00:01 local time. The ceasefire, once again brokered by Turkey and Russia, followed a series of successful advances by pro-government forces in southern Idlib. Just a few hours after start of the ceasefire, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the official branch of al-Qaeda in Syria) and its supposedly ‘moderate’ counterparts shelled Aleppo city, targeting the districts of Shahba, al-Khalidiyah, al-Neil, al-Sabeel and Tishreen. At least 3 civilians were killed and 5 others – injured.
Despite this, the Syrian Army halted all of its offensive operations and air and artillery bombing campaigns against militants’ military infrastructure across Greater Idlib. Now, government troops open fire only in response to attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies. They, in coordination with the Russian Reconciliation Center, also opened three humanitarian corridors (Al-Hobait – in southern Idlib, Abu Duhur – in southeastern Idlid, and Al-Hadher – in southwestern Aleppo) allowing civilians to leave the militant-controlled areas. The Idlib ‘opposition’ reacted by establishing own checkpoints near the corridors and imposing an unofficial tax for every persons that want to leave.
The new ceasefire effort caused a strong negative reaction among supporters of a military solution of the Idlib militants question. They reasonably say that the peace cannot be achieved in this part of Syria as long as al-Qaeda-style groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham dominate there. So, if Turkish-backed ‘moderate rebels’ cannot separate from al-Qaeda, they should face a military operation. In own turn, supporters of Idlib armed groups claim the army, Russia and Iran were just scared by their military might or, another version, the ceasefire is just another form of aggression because it allows civilians to leave Idlib, thus removing ‘human shields’ from the area. However, it seems that all these are a part of the larger trend.
Since the establishment of the Idlib de-escalation zone in September 2018, there have been 3 notable army operations against radical militants:
- The April-June 2019 offensive, when government troops liberated Kafr Nabudah town and a number of nearby villages in northwestern Hama;
- The August offensive that led to the liberation of Khan Shaykhun and nearby areas in southern Idlib;
- The November-December operation in southern Idlib in the framework of which around 30 villages and settlements were liberated, and the army deployed in a striking distance from Maarat al-Numan, another key militant stronghold on the M5 highway.
All of these operations ended and even were interrupted by a number of temporary ceasefires. In general, the loop looked the next way:
- Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the Turkish-backed ‘opposition’ agree on de-escalation efforts and the separation of “terrorists” and “moderate rebels”;
- “Moderate rebels” do not separate from “terrorists”. Attacks on army positions across the contact line continue. Leaders of Idlib militant groups claim that the ‘bloody Assad regime’ is terrified and vow to crush the regime and its supporters;
- The army and the Russian Reconciliation Center open humanitarian corridors allowing civilians to leave Greater Idlib. Militants try to prevent this sabotaging the effort. Despite this, some people leave;
- Government forces launch an offensive delivering a blow to militants and liberating a notable chunk of territory;
- The ‘international community’ and mainstream media report about numerous atrocities of the army against forces of the young Idlib democracy. Turkey and Russia agree on another ceasefire. The situation repeats.
At the first look this approach looks contrary to a straight logic. It is hard to imagine that somebody believes that the real ceasefire and political settlement is possible with al-Qaeda as one of the key powerbrokers on the ground. Nonetheless, it leads to apparent results: more and more civilians are being evacuated from Idlib and the Syrian Army liberates more and more areas. During the December offensive, even Hayat Tahrir al-Sham supporters had a suspicious that something was going wrong. In these conditions the main question is that how many such ceasefires will be needed to get rid of all radicals in the region?
This is how the Russian General Staff has managed the entire war. Nothing new. Brilliant preservation of men and machines. Excellent use of reconciliation for true rebels vs the jihadis. Many rebels have sworn allegiance to Syria and joined the fight against AQ and ISIS. Also, the ceasefires allow humanitarian aid, so the civilians see Russian MPs and medical services, as well as get water and food to the people, and in many case escort them to safe zone where they get housing and other government services.
How long will it go on in Idlib? Consider the enormous underground networks build since 2011, not just bunkers but ten kilometer long tunnels wide enough for side-by-side Toyota pickups to drive jihadi fighters, guns and ammo. Idlib has been the locale where the French and Turks and Qataris spent billions to create a veritable fortress of the province.
It will take all of 2020 to destroy al Nusra and the Uyghurs. There are at least 50,000 fighters there.
The good thing about the “delays” is the Syrian Army grows stronger each day. The civilians see hope for themselves down the road a few kilometers. The Russian ground presence is Chechen MPs, elite Sunni soldiers who the average Syrian can trust. Every advantage is with the Russian-Syrian operational strategy.
Bear in mind that the US and NATO countries will do everything to disrupt the military operations and to preserve part of Idlib as a permanent cancerous sector within Syria.
50,000 terrorists, in Idlib alone?
That’s at least two divisions of men armed with small weapons and access to anti-tank, and possibly aircraft denial systems as well. The training of this size force by the U.S. must have taken many months before the initial engagement in Syria.
This order of battle size requires logistical “tooth to tail” support for ammunition, food, water and battlefield medical triage that has to be conservatively 3 to 1. I hope the Syrian FAC are ready to call in Russian air support to knock out above ground resupply trucks as well as watch for night-time parachute drops. This fighting is reminiscent of the World War II battles the U.S. Marines fought island to island against the entrenched Japanese.
Let us pray for complete Syrian victory in Idlib, once and for all.
That’s for one thing, to be sure. The other might be enough time for the bearded lads to slow down and consider, well, a shooting holiday in Libya?? Provide and deliver, Uncle Recep. Take your time.
The sooner the cancer is removed it will prevent US and Nato from doing more mischief .Although allowing the US to protect Al-Qaeda, more and more Americans are seeing the USG as a crazy lapdog of Israel, pursuing a lose-lose strategy. In the long run aiding the crazy wahabi terrorists does not help the US at all.
Long live Assad!
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