By Aram Mirzaei
On 12 September a new nationwide ceasefire agreement was implemented in Syria, one brokered by the US and Russian Foreign Ministers after weeks of crunch talks. There had been several attempts to reach a deal in the previous weeks, but finally last Friday when foreign ministers Kerry and Lavrov announced their agreement, the world was lit with hope for some reason. Perhaps this time people believed the US would be genuine and able to control their multiple proxies operating in the country.
Part of this ceasefire agreement would include the fabled moderate rebels withdrawing from the jihadist camps; if they do not, the US says it will withdraw its support for these groups. Interestingly, this is the first time that the US openly threatens to withdraw its support for its proxies, something that Russian analyst Dmitry Kosyrev believes is because Washington does not have a chance to achieve its goals in this conflict, hence why they agreed to this painful deal. Kosyrev however also added that the most likely scenario will be that jihadists will most likely try to capitalize on this cessation of hostilities because “someone on the ground will refuse to adhere to the agreement”. [1]
I am inclined to agree with Kosyrev’s analysis and would also go as far to say that the Russian demand for “moderate rebels” to disassociate themselves from jihadist camps won’t be met. I say this for two reasons; firstly because there are no moderate rebels, there are only radical jihadists who want to overthrow the Syrian government, one of the last truly secular governments left in the region, and turn Syria into a Levantine Emirate. Secondly, in the unlikely event that there are any moderate rebels among the jihadist coalitions such as Jaysh Al-Fateh and Fatah Halab, any such group leaving these jihadist coalitions would commit both political and military suicide as they would lose any leverage they have over the Syrian government, as the jihadists know they are stronger if they remain united, furthermore any such group leaving the jihadist coalitions would most likely be turned into targets by the other jihadist groups who would deem them to be traitors. We are all too familiar with what terrorist groups such as ISIL and Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham (formerly Jabhat Al-Nusra) do to those that they deem to be traitors.
Supporting this theory is the fact that rebel (jihadist) groups announced that they would not abide by the ceasefire even before it was implemented on Monday at sunset. Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Syria’s largest jihadist faction officially announced, through their deputy leader in a televised statement “Abu Ammar Al-Umar” that they reject the nationwide ceasefire proposal. He cited that they would reject any ceasefire that excludes “certain groups” in Syria, referring to Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, a close partner of Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham. This once again confirms the suspicion that the plethora of “rebel” groups in Syria all work as one with a common goal in mind, and that they will not leave the side of internationally designated terrorist groups, with close links to Al-Qaeda.[2]
On Tuesday morning, jihadist militants once again reaffirmed this position when over 20 jihadist groups declared that they have rejected the ceasefire proposal, an announcement made by groups such as the US-backed Free Syrian Army, Harakat Nour Al-Deen Al-Zinki, Jabhat Al-Shamia, Jaysh Al-Nasr and Ajnad Al-Sham. They all cited that the major reason for their rejection was the exclusion of Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham and that this would leave the Syrian Army in a more beneficial position than they would. [3]
Contrary to the jihadist statements, Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah all welcomed the ceasefire proposal. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi, said on Sunday that “The Islamic republic of Iran always welcomes a ceasefire in Syria and the facilitation of the access of all the country’s people to humanitarian aid.” Meanwhile Hezbollah’s media wing “Military media” said that “the allies of Syria will support any decision that the Damascus government makes”. [4] [5]
Ghassemi also blamed armed groups for breaking previous ceasefires, saying, “Just as the Syrian government has a number of times emphasized, the lack of necessary guarantees on the adherence of terrorist-takfiri groups to the ceasefire have been an obstacle to the success of previous ceasefires.” Ghassemi added that for this ceasefire to be successful, there needs to be “comprehensive monitoring and control of the borders to block the dispatch of terrorism and arms.”
Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign policy adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however was more cautious about the ceasefire. “A ceasefire and a suspension of the war is the desire of everyone; however, if the cost of it is that the enemies of the government and people of Syria misuse it, not only will this ceasefire not be successful, but it will be harmful,” Velayati said. He added that previous ceasefires had been to the benefit of groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra.[6]
Velayati was referring to the previous ceasefire deal that failed and resulted in the jihadists capitalizing on the ceasefire to launch attacks in Southern Aleppo and recapturing areas previously lost to the Syrian Army and its allies, an incident that angered the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Hezbollah. In a previous article I quoted the Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan who expressed his dissatisfaction with the ceasefires that almost always resulted in the jihadists rearming and resupplying their forces in order to launch new attacks on the Syrian Army and its allies, Dehqan, referring to a May 7 attack on the town of Khan Touman said that “We agree to a guaranteed cease-fire that does not lead to terrorists building up their powers.”
The conservative newspaper Vatan-e Emrooz appeared to welcome the news of a ceasefire in an article titled “Obama’s Force Could Not Reach Assad.” It contends that the differences between the United States and Russia will force President Barack Obama to leave office with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still in office.[7]
It would seem that this time, there is a closer coordination between Moscow and Tehran on the conditions for the cessation of hostilities, with Iran and Hezbollah assuming an overall more positive stance towards the agreement. [8] This could be explained by the fact that the Syrian Army and its Iranian and Lebanese allies are seemingly no longer left paralyzed with their hands tied behind their backs, this time they are able to respond to any aggression with force, and due to the exclusion of Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham and their collaborators such as Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and Harakat Nour Al-Deen Al-Zinki who have already rejected the ceasefire, the Syrian Army does not have to stop its campaigns in areas such as Southern Aleppo and Northern Latakia.
It should have come as no surprise to anyone that the jihadists broke the ceasefire only an hour after it took into effect last night by firing rockets at the Syrian Army positions in the volatile Northern Hama front. Later that same night, jihadists launched a new assault, targeting the small town of Khattab in Northern Hama. [9]
By all logic, this violation coupled with the jihadists rejecting the ceasefire should make them legitimate targets for the Russian Air Force, the Syrian government forces and its allies on the ground. This seems to be the case in areas such as Northern Latakia, Southern Aleppo, Quneitra and Northern Hama as the Syrian Army has geared up to continue its campaigns against the jihadists who have plagued these areas. As a matter of fact, the Syrian Army has already flooded the Aleppo province with reinforcements from the Republican Guard, IRGC and Harakat Al-Nujaba (Iraqi paramilitary) in preparations for an upcoming offensive, possibly led by the prominent Iranian General Qassem Soleimani who was seen last week in Southern Aleppo, inspecting the troops stationed there. [10]
It remains to be seen how Washington will respond to their proxies’ rejection of the ceasefire agreement, and the continued Syrian Army advance in the aforementioned areas. We can safely assume that Washington has not had a change of heart when it comes to the idea of regime change in Syria. This ceasefire deal is doomed to collapse because the jihadists cannot and will not accept a cessation of hostilities, and while the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it “hope[s] the American side walks its part of the road and exerts due influence on those it considers Syria’s ‘moderate’ opposition to have them completely obey by the regime of cessation of hostilities and implement the Russian-U.S. agreements,” the question remains; will Washington stay true to its words and end its support for these jihadists? [11]
The Russian Foreign ministry also added that “it is worth reminding that despite our consistent calls the United States has given no consent to put Ahrar al-Sham on the United Nations terrorist list.” Washington has kept a consistent policy of protecting terrorist factions in Syria from being designated as terrorists, why would it change its policy now, and label one of its major proxy forces as a terrorist organization, thus legitimizing Russian-Syrian-Iranian efforts against them?
- https://m.sputniknews.com/politics/20160911/1045187157/russia-us-syria-deal.html ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/ahrar-al-sham-officially-rejects-syrian-ceasefire/ ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/20-militant-groups-reject-syrian-ceasefire-agreement/ ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-hezbollah-welcome-aleppo-truce/ ↑
- http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/09/11/484184/Iran-Syria-Bahram-Qassemi ↑
- http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/iran-cautious-cease-fire-deal-russia-us.html#ixzz4K8Ts7NIL ↑
- http://www.vatanemrooz.ir/newspaper/page/1978/1/163525/0 ↑
- http://10.16.86.131/the-syrian-conflict-an-iranian-perspective-on-the-russian-involvement-and-a-potential-turkish-cooperation/ ↑
- https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-rebels-ignore-ceasefire-launch-new-assault-northern-hama/ ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/ceasefire-allows-syrian-army-prepare-upcoming-aleppo-offensive/ ↑
- http://tass.com/politics/899385 ↑
This so called cease fire is a total waste of time and will only help IS and Turkey dig in and resupply, why does Russia fall for the same tactic the 2nd time? Just anihilate the Islamists and be done with it, unless they get defeated 100% on the battlefield there will be no lasting peace.. they will be coming back again and again. They understand nothing but violence so give them violence.
Rearm? Perhaps, but by what supply route? Jordan is closed, Israël is closed, and Turkey.
I think the change for this CoH is the change in Turkey’s attitude, and not much rearming will take place.
But I still won’t take bets on an outcome in Northern Aleppo.
Turkey’s attitude hasn’t changed…Its recent military ops inside Syria are specifically designed to secure the supply routes, not cut them off. Supplies will continue pouring into Syria over the Turkish border with Turkish government consent.
Where did you get the idea that the terrorist zionists are not supplying weapons to the terrorists in Syria?
Syria ceasefire violated 23 times by opposition forces – Russian military
https://www.rt.com/news/359195-syria-ceasefire-opposition-violation/
“Syrian government forces have completely stopped [their] shelling, except for the areas occupied by ISIS [Islamic State/IS] and Jabhat al-Nusra militants. Unfortunately that can’t be said about the armed forces of the moderate opposition, backed by the United States,” he said.
US-backed rebel forces have shelled residential areas as well as Syrian Army positions, according to the Russian General Staff.
Six people died on Monday night following the shelling of Aleppo by the moderate opposition forces, with 10 others receiving injuries, Colonel Sergey Kopytsin from the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria said Tuesday.
“Five violations of the cessation of hostilities by the ‘moderate opposition’ in the city of Aleppo, which killed six and injured 10 people, were registered overnight following the introduction of the ceasefire,” Kopytsin said.”
No doubt the Jewish owned/run zio-gay media is saying Syria is committing the attacks instead.
The israeli freakshow continues to attack Syria during the ceasefire.
Damascus claims IDF warplane & drone shot down in Syria after attack, Israel denies
https://www.rt.com/news/359139-syrian-army-israeli-warplane/
“An Israeli warplane and a drone have been shot down by Syrian forces in the southern Quneitra countryside, Golan Heights, the Syrian Army said in a statement. It comes after the Israeli military targeted Syrian positions in the Golan Heights.
Syria’s military said it shot down Israeli aircraft at 01:00 local time on Tuesday in response to an attack on Syrian Army positions.
“Our air defenses blocked the attack and shot down the military aircraft in [the southern province of] Quneitra [Golan Heights] and a drone,” a statement from the ministry said.”
Meanwhile the israeli massa extorts more taxes from their colony of pindo exceptionals:
US to sign record $38bn military aid deal with Israel – report
https://www.rt.com/usa/359184-usa-israel-military-aid/
Interesting terminology used there “US to sign record $38bn military aid deal with Israel” . My thinking on the use of the word “deal” is that both sides agree to something that “gives” them both something in return. It this case,and all others with Israel. It is about the “gift” of money to Israel. Not a mutual arrangement at all. Unless someone giving into another’s hand free money,is somehow in today’s World considered “a deal” with them.I guess I’m just too “old fashioned” to understand how that’s “a deal”.
Isn’t the deal that the private Federal Reserve prints $38Billion on a computer screen, gives it to the US Government who then give it to Israel as aid (or directly to the Military Industrial Complex) who then give it to the MIC for the weaponry. The $38Billion on the computer screen then adds to the $Trillions that the US taxpayers (who aren’t part of much of the 1% who avoid tax,or the 50% on welfare) have to toil away to pay over coming centuries?
I don’t know for sure about the 1%. I’m sure they miss as much tax as they can wiggle out of. But those on different kinds of assistance aren’t that lucky. The SS,above some amounts is taxed. And the monies from all those groups are charged excise taxes. As well as ,unlike the wealthy,most of their money recycles through the economy. Helping to fund jobs,and goods and services. With the 1% much of that money ends in a few luxury goods,Wall Street bonds,or bank vaults in tax havens overseas.Doing nothing for our economy except looting it.
You forgot to mention that the US people have to pay interest on that money, as all US $ are loaned into existence by the FED which is a private bank.
And who owns the Federal Reserve Bank?
Russia is evidently getting better with these agreements. This one leaves the resistance forces more free than the one before. Good.
What’s happening here is a repeated effort to forge agreements. Russia knows how to kill all the terrorists on the ground in Syria, but this is not the point. The point is that Russia wants a perfect agreement in force here, and she will presumably keep trying until she gets one.
My guess is that the perfect agreement is one in which the US finds itself locked into conditions it can’t easily get out of, and which constrain its violence.
We’ll keep seeing these agreements until Russia achieves the perfect one. This is Russia fighting. To focus exclusively on the violence on the ground is to miss the true battle being fought.
This is good diplomacy and propaganda for Russia and the Syrian side.
The fury of the last Russian week of bombing indicated their Intel has penetrated precisely the leadership cells and strategic locations of the major terrorist orgs.
That will be hard to change if fighting resumes quickly. And easier to track in a semi-truce environment. Russians are on Costello Road. More eyes, more drones, more satellites are on the terrorists.
And the intensity drop is good for the best troops doing the heavy fighting.
It isn’t all bad or even half-bad.
Pause saps the resistance of the terrorists. It strengthens the Syrian nationalists who are fighting for country, family and Assad.
Tragic irony: 15 years after 9/11, US partnering with Al-Qaeda in Syria
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/359180-syria-russia-us-ceasefire-911/
“It remains difficult to negotiate a settlement in Syria because many in the region feel the US is only interested in regime change, author and historian Gerard Horne told RT.
GH: It’s ironic that 24 hours after the solemn celebration in Washington, New York and Pennsylvania marking the 15th anniversary of the Al-Qaeda attack on the US, that, as we speak, the US is figuratively in bed with Al-Qaeda-like forces in Syria. This exposes, it seems to me, the contradiction and the hypocrisy of the US foreign policy.”
Lavrov puts kerry on the hot seat:
Terrorist group or not? Lavrov says US-led coalition ‘reluctant’ to strike Al-Nusra Front in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/359192-nusra-syria-lavrov-kerry/
“The US-led coalition is reluctant to strike Al-Nusra Front targets in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, adding the status of the terrorist group, now renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, will be discussed with Washington.
“I have a very demanding task now – not to let the list [of terrorist organizations] be reduced,” Lavrov said at a news conference on Tuesday.
“I have no reason not to trust [US Secretary of State] John Kerry, but what we see on the ground [in Syria] is that the coalition is very reluctant to strike the positions of the Nusra Front,” the minister noted.
He noted that there is much evidence that many of the stakeholders in the Syrian conflict have been increasingly viewing the Al-Nusra Front, now rebranded to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, as a “force which should be preserved to facilitate the change of the regime in Syria” and calling for it to be legalized.
“This is a topic for a very serious discussion with our American partners,” Lavrov said, noting that while the obligation to separate Syrian opposition fighters from terrorists was taken up by the US almost a year ago, this has not happened yet.”
http://russia-insider.com/en/syria-how-long-will-new-cessation-hostilities-hold/ri16393
extract
“If this deal falls apart, as it is likely to eventually do, all responsibility will be put onto Secretary of State Kerry. Indeed the military and intelligence parts of the U.S. government may well work to sabotage the deal while Kerry will be presented as convenient scapegoat whenever it fails.
This new CoH is unlikely to hold for more than a few weeks:
Too much is left undefined. This allows any party to claim the other side broke it whenever convenient.
The powers who agreed on the deal do not have control over main elements on the ground.
There are too many parties, inside and outside of Syria, who have an interest in spoiling the CoH.”
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QUNAYTRA: Southwest of the provincial capital of Qunaytra, between the villages of Al-Burayq and Bi`r Al-‘Ajam, just west of Sa’sa’, the Syrian Air Defense network was finally permitted to open fire on attacking Zionist rodent bombers. This time, the bomber was an American-manufactured-and-supplied F-16, the pride of the Zionist Settler State. The man who gave the order and fixed the coordinates to fire the S-300 missile at the invading vulture was Captain Rayyaan Dhaaher, my wife’s nephew. He confirmed his role in the event by calling Leith and giving him general information about the strike.
I have received confirming information also from Monzer’s wife in Damascus. She informed me that Monzer was in Al-Ba’ath City and saw the Zionist bomber downed with his own eyes. The pilot was not seen to eject and probably was roasted in his seat as his bombs exploded with the anti-aircraft missile. The jet landed in an area close to Al-Qaeda positions and it is assumed the terrorists, who are now allied with Zionism openly, will return the burned parts to their masters. The Zionists are now probably poring over the wreckage to find any part of the pilot in a typically gruesome, ghastly and grisly Zionist practice of saving body parts.
The Syrian High Command has also announced the downing of the bomber and a pilot-less drone over the Occupied Golan. Syrian Armed Forces have been placed on high alert emphasizing the western front.
The Zionists have denied the bombing, however, indicating no desire to use this event as some casus belli.
The strike on the Zionist bomber took place around 1:00 a.m. on early Tuesday, Damascus time, (6:00 p.m. on Monday, EDT). The bomber was firing at a Syrian Army outpost as our soldiers were lobbing artillery at moving Nusra/Alqaeda rodents. In an effort to raise the morale of the vermin, the Zionist terrorists took to the skies to show they were serious allies of terrorism and Saudi Arabia.
OUR SALUTE TO CAPTAIN RAYYAAN DHAAHER FOR HIS HEROIC ACT IN DEFENDING SYRIAN SKIES AND OUR GREAT SYRIAN ARMY.
image: http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/g0f6roxfvcbdwiiw2nx6.jpg
Image result for F-16 Israeli bomber
You can minus one of these bombers now for the filthy, plague-carrying Khazars of Occupied Palestine
Via Wikimapia: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.272565&lon=36.020565&z=13&m=b
The decision to fly the F-16s in support of the Alqaeda terrorist allies of Zionism was due to events beginning on September 11, 2016 when the terrorists mounted a ferocious offensive in the area of Tal Al-Hamriyya south of Hadhar. The counter-attack by the SAA netted a truckload of Alqaeda terrorists frying them all. Among the roasted rodents were field commanders like:
Muhammad Yusuf Al-Subayhi (a/k/a “Abu Qinwa, a celebrated child molester and fecal fetishist. He was a commander of Alqaeda)
Ibraaheem ‘Umar Al-Ahmad (Leader of Liwaa` Al-Sibtayn, a reference to the two tribes: Arab and Jewish)
At this time, the Zionist army delivered some help on the ground to the rabid hyenas of Alqaeda. However, the attack flopped and Alqaeda sustained very substantial losses in rodents and materiel, yet, were able to withdraw under heavy Zionist artillery fire.
The terrorists reportedly complained that they were not being given adequate help in fighting the SAA. My sources tell me that Prince Muhammad Ibn Salmaan, himself, the Deputy Clown Prince and architect of the disaster in Yemen, received the urgent message from Abu Al-Muthannaa Al-Shaami, and contacted his “allies” in the Zionist Apartheid State begging them to intervene. Fast forward to September 13, 2016.
On that date, today, the SAA mounted an attack that killed 3 major field commanders and 9 others at Tal Al-Hamriyya who were allied to Alqaeda:
Muhammad Ameen Sulaymaan Al-Hareeri (This pimp was the leader of a former FSA group (Firqat ‘Amood Hawraan) now involved in some fantasy called “Ma’rakat Qaadisiyyat Al-Janoob, or “the Qaadisiyya Battle of the South”, yawn.
Abu Al-Muthannaa Al-Shaami (This hairy swine used to command all Ahraar Al-Shaam camps in the south. He is the one who contacted the Saudi cockroaches in an effort to get help for his rodents)
___________________________________________
LT. GENERAL, FAHD JAASSIM AL-FURAYJ, SYRIAN MINISTER OF DEFENSE, TOURS TISHREEN MILITARY HOSPITAL TO DELIVER PRESIDENT’S RESPECT AND ADMIRATION TO WOUNDED SYRIAN SOLDIERS DURING THE ‘EID AL-ADHAA CELEBRATIONS.
image: http://albaathmedia.sy/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/00003C26.jpg
00003C26
The Syrian Army, buoyed up by the events on the Golan, used their Special Operations units out of Qutayfa to strike at Abu Hudayj Crossing in an area of Al-Jaraajeer foothills in the Qalamoon. The area is controlled by ISIS. The SAA commandos sneaked up on a home in which the rodents were sleeping, killed the only sentry, and placed explosives all around the 2 story home. When the house went up in a dark ball of smoke, fellow rodents in the area rushed to extract the carcasses before they were turned into toast. As the fellow rodents gathered at the destroyed home, the commandos relayed a message describing the scene and the SAA artillery nearby opened fire on the area frying another 11 rats, all of whom, as it turned out, were Urdu-speaking mercenaries.
Read more at http://syrianperspective.com/2016/09/zionist-f-16-downed-by-syrian-air-defenses-over-golan-zionist-pilot-fried-in-his-seat-as-he-was-helping-alqaeda-syrian-s-300-operator-is-ziads-relative-heroes-of-syria-slaughtered-like-sheep.html#ri6CbgCdeaSS5Bb4.99
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TEHRAN (FNA)- Fatah al-Sham (formerly known as the al-Nusra Front) on Tuesday thanked the terrorist groups that have rejected the US-Russia negotiated ceasefire with the Syrian government that went into effect on Monday night.
Fatah al-Sham, in a statement, termed the truce agreement as a fresh plot and appreciated the leaders and members of 22 terrorist groups that did not accept the ceasefire brokered by Russia and the US.
At least 22 terrorist groups, mostly affiliated to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), announced earlier today that they would not abide by the truce agreement that went into effect on Monday night.
Faylaq al-Sham, Nouralddeen al-Zinki movement, al-Faoj al-Awal, al-Ferqa 101, Faylaq al-Homs, Jeish al-Islam, Etihad al-Islami al-Ajnad al-Sham, Ansar al-Islam Front, al-Ferqa 13, Liwa al-Fatah, al-ferqa Shomaliyeh, al-Shamiyeh Front, Kataeb al-Safwa al-Islamiyeh, al-Ferqa al-Wosta, Fastwom Kama Amrat, Jeish al-Nasr, Jeish al-Tahrir, Liwa al-Soqouu Jabal al-Zawiyeh, Liwa al-Horiyeh al-Islami, al-Isaleh Front, al-Tamiyeh and Jund al-Badr 313 were the terrorist groups that have put their signatures down the statement to reject the truce.”
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950623001165
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From the WaPo
**1:40 p.m.
The Russian foreign ministry is pushing to make public the text a cease-fire deal for Syria that Russia and the United States agreed to after marathon talks in Geneva last week.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters on Tuesday that Moscow wants the deal, which launched a nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria, to be made public but that the U.S. opposes such a move.
Lavrov said Moscow “has nothing to hide” and wants the U.N. Security Council to formally approve the Syria truce deal as well.**
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-latest-syria-army-claims-shooting-down-2-israeli-planes/2016/09/13/9aae0786-7986-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html
So Lavrov tells us that the 5 documents relating to the ceasefire agreement that are to be kept secret are not being made public because America does not want the Syrian opposition to see what they agreed to.
Russians, Iranians, and Hezbollah are 100% committed to wipe takfiris on Syrian soil. Only question is how many more thousands of dead terrorists, and how much political capital burned. Syria is the ideal theatre for the match. The longer the show the more damage to sponsors. Every failure reveals more weakness. Obama will be gone soon to applause and laughter.
I always know when the Jihadist proxies are losing in Syria — Kerry and Obama start to whine and then trot out some muddled deal with Putin. Putin is almost acting like their psychiatrist, letting them play out their delusions, hoping one day they will see the cognitive dissonance of their actions. Of course this won’t work, they are consciously happy errand boys for global imperialism.
This bizarre cycle would be akin to Hitler calling Stalin every few months to negotiate a temporary cease-fire in Stalingrad so his harried fascists could regroup .. and Stalin humoring him by granting his wish.
If it is true that Syria has finally unleashed real air defense against an attacking bomber, this must have been done with Russian acquiescence. Perhaps Russia has had a very important change of heart? Perhaps this is Russia’s way of showing that the new peace agreement is not the betrayal of Syria that it looks like? If so, there is real hope that the new agreement will work, that it will hasten peace via some sort of resolution of the conflict, one way or another – that Russia didn’t make this agreement with its eyes closed and its fingers crossed.
More so than beauty, betrayal is in the eye of the beholder.
When you consider what the future held for Syria before September 30, 2015, it’s hard to understand what you meant by
Russian acquiescence.
Russia has had a very important change of heart
Russia didn’t make this agreement with its eyes closed and its fingers crossed.
I no longer expect emails from VVP about what he plans to do. He makes the decisions and I go along with them.
Remember this: a week before this ceasefire was agreed to, Kerry was kvetching that his patience was wearing out.
But less than 24 hours after Lavrov said he was “ready to call it a day,” the agreement was announced.
http://www.anna-news.info/node/64431
link to full MOD press briefing re ceasefire, rus language
IMHO it looks like the pindos have let down their pants, but still want to save their faces (not faeces). Somehow, I feel relieved (excuse my French) believing that the turn has come.
Agreed, great article on the allied perspective. The ceasefire is doomed and not going to stop any significant amount of fighting. However, its doubtful that anyone on the ground is fooled. The Americans are just adding to their record of perfidy and reinforcing their lack of credibility; its kind of a twisted diplomatic triumph on Russia’s part.
Why its being made, is unclear but there must be good reasons for the Russians to humour the Americans. The U.S. has raised its flag on Syrian soil, at tel Abyad. Perhaps the ceasefire is connected with securing that base; the Americans would want to be very sure the Russians wouldn’t blind-eye any intel on Islamist designs on the base and minimize any fighting around it.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/american-soldiers-hoist-u-s-flag-syrian-land-set-new-military-base-tell-abyad/
Iran and Hezbollah are probably satisfied to know the Russian troops are sharing the danger more directly, stationed along Castille Road to secure a humanitarian corridor.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-begins-withdraw-strategic-aleppo-highway/
With the SAA barely able to secure the ground it holds, any heat the ceasefire can remove and also that alleviates civilian suffering would be welcome.
This stand down of the Syrian Airforce….when Putin and Lavrov know the US will use the COH to move
Takfiri kook mercs and weapons.
US already saying they have not agreed on joint operations.
This entire offering is legal BS and posturing.
In Syria…Jihadi are taking amnesty and bugging out….each ceasefire leaves the dedicated Jihadi less and
Less in numeric.
It is obvious Russia and Iran are paying to rescue Syria…
So…why do both not commit action** to force this Maelstrom to its conclusion?
Russia could drop several Airborne regiments into Raqqa and East to Der ezzor.
Iran could do thusly. …both gaining real-time Exp as they will have contact .
This would then isolate Aleppo as win or lose for the US and the Saudi. ….
Basically. …it’s all over…if resupply is ended for Aleppo.
The Syrian Golan needs S 300 and Pantisir/ TOR M1 to secure this airspace vs Israel.
Have Russians posted to these assets….forcing Israel to do the evil act to Russia.
A better solution is Russian S 400 for Golan coverage
Unknown why Russia is timid to resolve this conflict or stand toe to toe with US ?
It’s understood Russia wants a negotiated settlement…yet every indicator is the US will not comply.
In the End. …it’s the cost.
With the war resolved…Syria has oil…nat gas and trade to repay it’s debt to Russia and Iran.
So…It’s really a business decision. ….and time Russia acts to end the grinding carnage show.
You have to factor in that the Syrian Airforce is in really bad shape and therefore the grounding of it will make no difference to the outcome of the war.
Putin knows that the US and their terrorist buddies will not keep to the cease fire. It is impossible for the US to separate their “moderate rebels” from the headchoppers because they are one of the same. That is the beauty of the agreement. It becomes very difficult for the US to continue to hide that they are in bed with Al Qadea.
The US will refuse to keep to the agreement and bomb Al Nusra.
So with the Syrian Airforce grounded it makes it so much more difficult for the US to blame Assad. They will try but they become less and less credible.