I’m wondering what the Syrian and Iranian governments are thinking of this:
‘US ditches Al-Nusra to preserve less extremist rebels’
Meanwhile, political analyst Ammar Waqqaf has cast doubt on the sincerity of Kerry’s assertion that “going on Al-Nusra” was never a negotiating point.
“United States have made a big decision in ditching Jabhat Al-Nusra in order to preserve the other fighting groups, the other what they call the moderate fighting groups”, the analyst told RT, calling it the “cornerstone” of the deal.
Waqqaf is sure that Washington’s move was prompted by the rapid advance of Syrian armed forces on rebel positions, which would have imminently led to the “severe deterioration” of the so-called moderate forces and hardline terrorist groups, including Al-Nusra, alike.
The decision to turn away from the most radical groups was made “in order to try and tie the Syrian state hand and Russian hand, in order to preserve the other groups who are less extremist but still extremist but they would call them moderate know.”
“Most of the seven victims of the Friday terrorist attacks in Aleppo are women and children, the SANA news agency said on Friday citing a source at Aleppo Police Command.
In addition to the deaths and 24 injuries, the Aleppo police reported material damage to city properties.
Earlier on Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Islamic State (Daesh) and Jabhat Fatah al Sham (also known as al-Nusra Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra) terrorists fired at a number of civilian objects with multiple launch rocket systems (MRLS) and mortars in Syria’s Aleppo.”
Moon of A http://www.moonofalabama.org/ ….If this deal falls apart, as it is likely to eventually do, all responsibility will be put onto Secretary of State Kerry. Indeed the military and intelligence parts of the U.S. government may well work to sabotage the deal while Kerry will be presented as convenient scapegoat whenever it fails.
This new CoH is unlikely to hold for more than a few weeks:
Too much is left undefined. This allows any party to claim the other side broke it whenever convenient.
The powers who agreed on the deal do not have control over main elements on the ground.
There are too many parties, inside and outside of Syria, who have an interest in spoiling the CoH…
—————–
So long as Russia keeps up it’s bombing campaign destroying the jihadi’s logistics , the ceasefire should come along fine.
Recall the ceasefire in effect on another totally forgotten war front, & how little it’s meant from day1.
A few days ago, S.A. flew more bombing sorties than any day since then.
Hello Saker
Can we have an analysis of this ceasefire. On the surface I can’t understand why it has been agreed the SAA were making ground. Why at this moment?
Lavrov saying thst attempts by “sponsors” of one of the syrian opposition groups as the only legitimate worthy opposition group to run Syriais against UN resolution, and does not recognise all groups, who should be continuing the negotiations in the recognised groups already established, and does not take into account Assads supporters, all Syrian people, the Syrian State…see tass today, some 5documents being worked on to be prsented HNC says will support Rus-usa agrement if Damascus does. So after all those months of Kerry Lavrov are we any further ahead, peace talks are still trying to be hijacked…Kerry announcing ceasefire all parties Sept 12th……..is this a signal for SDF to make the best of what time is left, stock up with ammo..false flags, provocations etc etc….. maybe prove Assad and SAA to be unworthy or set up to participate in near future peace talks.?…..still very sceptical……..presumably this still has to go back to UN?????
I have not read anything that gives me confidence that this will work
The SAA had gained momentum now they have to stop?
I really don’t understand the motivation for Lavrov to agree to this ceasefire which ties the hands of the SAA. And allows the terrorists to change their names and keep fighting.
What do the other allies think of this? They are fighting on the ground
I totally despise these phoney ceasefires: everytime the SAA is on the verge of a major victory, the US arranges a so-called cessation. Then the headchoppers are resupplied.
It is interesting to see so many here who habitually outthink Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, the GRU and SVR.
I am duly impressed with the ability of folks who read third-fourth and fifth-hand reports from the battlefield and command such clarity of what should be the next move.
No criticism left unused.
I always rush here to get the absolute best strategy and tactics on Donbass and Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and every now and then Afghanistan.
Brilliant stuff.
Field Marshalls and Five-Stars winning every battle as if it were video games.
Agreed. As I remember things, soon after the last ceasefire ended, several ‘command and control’ centers were destroyed, as per SyPer. I think the Russians used the last cease-fire to meticulously monitor the enemy. This time, with Allepo surrounded, infiltration routes into the area will be fewer, the results may be check-mate.
The RuAF bombed a remote c.i.a. base, when they knew nobody would be home, and turned around and did it again. I think they know where the c.i.a. clowns are in Allepo.
SEP10 http://en.alalam.ir/news/1860213
Moscow and Tehran are currently in negotiations over the redeployment of Russian bombers to the Hamadan airbase in Iran so that they could resume their counterterrorism missions in Syria, Izvestiya reported, citing an unnamed source in military and diplomatic circles.
Maybe the ceasefire is, right now, in Syria’s interest. The SAA had to pull out of the ISIS front to tackle the Nusra front. It means Syria can’t fully fight ISIS and Nusra at the same time. You see, the Hamadan base is, actually, only needed to strike the ISIS strongholds along the Euphrates. Also, it makes sense to go after ISIS territory, now that Nusra militants — with the aid of Turkey — are fast advancing through ISIS territory. Syria can’t afford to lose the whole Western bank of the Euphrates river to the Nusra militants. And Syria can now seize this opportunity to ease out the fighting on its Eastern front.
As for the Alepo cauldron, unless the militants trapped there break the ceasefire, they won’t go anywhere. Now, the militants may need the ceasefire more than ever, because of their severe losses in the Alepo battle.
The ceasefire is in Syria’s interest if two conditions are met
1) if Turkey has not tacked back onto America’s side. Erdogan is playing a masterful game, but on balance I think he will stay with Putin. If Erdogan is to be trusted the Turkish border will be closed and there will be no armament resupply to the terrorists AND the rebels. Also it will be closed to new recruits of terrorists and rebels.
2) if there is real separation between the ‘so called’ moderate rebels and the demented terrorists. My guess is that at this moment most terrorists are in urban areas hiding behind the skirts of women and children.
The long-sought-after separation of the terrorists from the rebels will spell a reduction of the terrorists’ strength.
Something we all should remember before crawling out on the critical limb.
**The Russian FM said that the diplomats have negotiated on five separate documents at the talks. “Despite the mistrust and attempt to disrupt what we have agreed upon, we managed to work out a package of documents, there are five of them. It allows us to set an effective coordination in the fight against terrorism, to expand the humanitarian access to distressed population, first and foremost in Aleppo,” Lavrov said.
Due to the sensitive nature of the information contained in the agreements, they will not be made available to general public, Lavrov said. “We cannot make these documents public.**
I think most folks are quite horrified at this “deal” .
This 3 minute piece by Alexander Azadgan which was on Russian tv says it all.
I really wonder what Mr Lavrov is playing at – eg Syrian air force to be grounded?
I’m wondering what the Syrian and Iranian governments are thinking of this:
‘US ditches Al-Nusra to preserve less extremist rebels’
Meanwhile, political analyst Ammar Waqqaf has cast doubt on the sincerity of Kerry’s assertion that “going on Al-Nusra” was never a negotiating point.
“United States have made a big decision in ditching Jabhat Al-Nusra in order to preserve the other fighting groups, the other what they call the moderate fighting groups”, the analyst told RT, calling it the “cornerstone” of the deal.
Waqqaf is sure that Washington’s move was prompted by the rapid advance of Syrian armed forces on rebel positions, which would have imminently led to the “severe deterioration” of the so-called moderate forces and hardline terrorist groups, including Al-Nusra, alike.
The decision to turn away from the most radical groups was made “in order to try and tie the Syrian state hand and Russian hand, in order to preserve the other groups who are less extremist but still extremist but they would call them moderate know.”
I would be “less than pleased” if I was them.
All “rebels” are US mercenaries.
Nobody who fights Syria gets ditched.
7 Killed, Two Dozen Injured in Terrorist Attacks in Syria’s Aleppo
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160910/1045159574/aleppo-terrorist-attacks.html
“Most of the seven victims of the Friday terrorist attacks in Aleppo are women and children, the SANA news agency said on Friday citing a source at Aleppo Police Command.
In addition to the deaths and 24 injuries, the Aleppo police reported material damage to city properties.
Earlier on Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Islamic State (Daesh) and Jabhat Fatah al Sham (also known as al-Nusra Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra) terrorists fired at a number of civilian objects with multiple launch rocket systems (MRLS) and mortars in Syria’s Aleppo.”
The ceasefire.
Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kerry-idUSKCN11F0HC
Sputnik https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160910/1045155355/us-russia-syria-ceasefire-reinstate.html
Moon of A http://www.moonofalabama.org/ ….If this deal falls apart, as it is likely to eventually do, all responsibility will be put onto Secretary of State Kerry. Indeed the military and intelligence parts of the U.S. government may well work to sabotage the deal while Kerry will be presented as convenient scapegoat whenever it fails.
This new CoH is unlikely to hold for more than a few weeks:
Too much is left undefined. This allows any party to claim the other side broke it whenever convenient.
The powers who agreed on the deal do not have control over main elements on the ground.
There are too many parties, inside and outside of Syria, who have an interest in spoiling the CoH…
—————–
So long as Russia keeps up it’s bombing campaign destroying the jihadi’s logistics , the ceasefire should come along fine.
Recall the ceasefire in effect on another totally forgotten war front, & how little it’s meant from day1.
A few days ago, S.A. flew more bombing sorties than any day since then.
Sanaa, Yemen (CNN)A ceasefire brokered by the United Nations in war-torn Yemen went into effect Sunday at 11:59 p.m. local time.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/11/middleeast/yemen-ceasefire-starts/
Hello Saker
Can we have an analysis of this ceasefire. On the surface I can’t understand why it has been agreed the SAA were making ground. Why at this moment?
Lavrov saying thst attempts by “sponsors” of one of the syrian opposition groups as the only legitimate worthy opposition group to run Syriais against UN resolution, and does not recognise all groups, who should be continuing the negotiations in the recognised groups already established, and does not take into account Assads supporters, all Syrian people, the Syrian State…see tass today, some 5documents being worked on to be prsented HNC says will support Rus-usa agrement if Damascus does. So after all those months of Kerry Lavrov are we any further ahead, peace talks are still trying to be hijacked…Kerry announcing ceasefire all parties Sept 12th……..is this a signal for SDF to make the best of what time is left, stock up with ammo..false flags, provocations etc etc….. maybe prove Assad and SAA to be unworthy or set up to participate in near future peace talks.?…..still very sceptical……..presumably this still has to go back to UN?????
Last chance saloon for Kerry?
More like last chance saloon for Lavrov.
I have not read anything that gives me confidence that this will work
The SAA had gained momentum now they have to stop?
I really don’t understand the motivation for Lavrov to agree to this ceasefire which ties the hands of the SAA. And allows the terrorists to change their names and keep fighting.
What do the other allies think of this? They are fighting on the ground
As if Lavrov doesn’t know everything we know,
and a million things more!
ha ha
I totally despise these phoney ceasefires: everytime the SAA is on the verge of a major victory, the US arranges a so-called cessation. Then the headchoppers are resupplied.
What say you, Saker?
It is interesting to see so many here who habitually outthink Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, the GRU and SVR.
I am duly impressed with the ability of folks who read third-fourth and fifth-hand reports from the battlefield and command such clarity of what should be the next move.
No criticism left unused.
I always rush here to get the absolute best strategy and tactics on Donbass and Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and every now and then Afghanistan.
Brilliant stuff.
Field Marshalls and Five-Stars winning every battle as if it were video games.
Agreed. As I remember things, soon after the last ceasefire ended, several ‘command and control’ centers were destroyed, as per SyPer. I think the Russians used the last cease-fire to meticulously monitor the enemy. This time, with Allepo surrounded, infiltration routes into the area will be fewer, the results may be check-mate.
The RuAF bombed a remote c.i.a. base, when they knew nobody would be home, and turned around and did it again. I think they know where the c.i.a. clowns are in Allepo.
SEP10
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1860213
Moscow and Tehran are currently in negotiations over the redeployment of Russian bombers to the Hamadan airbase in Iran so that they could resume their counterterrorism missions in Syria, Izvestiya reported, citing an unnamed source in military and diplomatic circles.
Maybe the ceasefire is, right now, in Syria’s interest. The SAA had to pull out of the ISIS front to tackle the Nusra front. It means Syria can’t fully fight ISIS and Nusra at the same time. You see, the Hamadan base is, actually, only needed to strike the ISIS strongholds along the Euphrates. Also, it makes sense to go after ISIS territory, now that Nusra militants — with the aid of Turkey — are fast advancing through ISIS territory. Syria can’t afford to lose the whole Western bank of the Euphrates river to the Nusra militants. And Syria can now seize this opportunity to ease out the fighting on its Eastern front.
As for the Alepo cauldron, unless the militants trapped there break the ceasefire, they won’t go anywhere. Now, the militants may need the ceasefire more than ever, because of their severe losses in the Alepo battle.
The ceasefire is in Syria’s interest if two conditions are met
1) if Turkey has not tacked back onto America’s side. Erdogan is playing a masterful game, but on balance I think he will stay with Putin. If Erdogan is to be trusted the Turkish border will be closed and there will be no armament resupply to the terrorists AND the rebels. Also it will be closed to new recruits of terrorists and rebels.
2) if there is real separation between the ‘so called’ moderate rebels and the demented terrorists. My guess is that at this moment most terrorists are in urban areas hiding behind the skirts of women and children.
The long-sought-after separation of the terrorists from the rebels will spell a reduction of the terrorists’ strength.
Something we all should remember before crawling out on the critical limb.
**The Russian FM said that the diplomats have negotiated on five separate documents at the talks. “Despite the mistrust and attempt to disrupt what we have agreed upon, we managed to work out a package of documents, there are five of them. It allows us to set an effective coordination in the fight against terrorism, to expand the humanitarian access to distressed population, first and foremost in Aleppo,” Lavrov said.
Due to the sensitive nature of the information contained in the agreements, they will not be made available to general public, Lavrov said. “We cannot make these documents public.**
https://www.newcoldwar.org/russia-and-u-s-agree-on-new-syria-ceasefire-plan/
I think most folks are quite horrified at this “deal” .
This 3 minute piece by Alexander Azadgan which was on Russian tv says it all.
I really wonder what Mr Lavrov is playing at – eg Syrian air force to be grounded?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NICr0dJTZqc
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/expert-isis-receiving-weapons-directly-eastern-europe-via-saudi-arabia-turkey/
By Paul Antonopoulos –
12/09/2016
James Bevan, the director of Conflict Armament Research (CAR), told The Huffington Post UK that investigations have discovered weapons manufactured in Eastern Europe are being delivered to ISIS “almost direct” to Syria and Iraq.
ISIS had mostly been using weapons captured from the Iraqi and Syrian armies.