by Ghassan and Intibah’s Kadi for The Saker Blog
Or is it the Battle for Idlib? And whose battle? And who is fighting who? And where?
The only thing that is clear about this seemingly upcoming battle is the fact that Idlib has been “used” as a sink hole and dumping ground for all anti-government/anti-Syria terrorists. Such a status quo cannot last.
Ever since the battle of Al-Qusayr and the collapse of the terrorist forces, fighters were sent to Idlib, pending political settlement. This influx continued unabated and even included “deals” between Hezbollah and the terrorists when the Qalamoun region was cleansed. This included fighters who were present on Lebanese soil.
The list of fighters who ended up in Idlib includes those who were kicked out of Zabadani, Ghouta, Palmyra, Aleppo, just to name a few. It is little wonder therefore why some estimate the number of fighters there to currently exceed 50,000. Even a 100,000 figure was touted by some. This is perhaps an exaggerated figure but it would be very difficult to make an accurate estimate.
Five years ago or so, it would have been plausible to think that the final battle was going to be fought for Aleppo, not Idlib. But, given that all fighters were sent to Idlib and not Aleppo, it was a prelude to what is happening now.
So, the question now is, are we expecting a political resolution or a military one or both? And were the fighters convinced by their negotiators that in going to Idlib they will eventually be granted a political resolution or did they go there to perish as “martyrs” in their Jihadi pursuit?
In reality, the situation is much more perplexing than meets the eye. On one hand, Turkey has alleged its total withdrawal from any support to ISIS and, even though the official Turkish narrative is leaning against supporting any other terror organisation operating within Syria, Turkey doesn’t make its position about Al Nusra Front very clearly known.
On one hand, Turkey pledges its tacit support to Al Nusra but, at the same time, the Free Syria Army (FSA), which is a de-facto Turkish army operating within Syria, has made several statements over the last year or so indicating that it will be fighting to oust Al Nusra in Idlib. Their announcements fall a tad short of saying the FSA will be supporting the SAA in its efforts to regain Idlib.
And if the Idlib-based terrorists are receiving supplies, they would have to be receiving them via Turkey, after all, this is the only route they have to the outside world. So on whose side is Erdogan?
But contradictions of this nature are not alien to Erdogan. After all, he is the NATO member who is exchanging sanctions with the USA, buying weapons from Russia, and desperate to join the EU even though he regards the union members as Muslim-hating Crusaders, and has recently expressed interest in joining BRICS. https://www.rt.com/news/434685-turkey-join-brics-eu-nato/
But America is intent to hit Syria even in the absence of any justification. Apparently, it is busy making a list of potential targets https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201808311067651634-usa-syria-military-operation-targets/. Historically, when America could not find a reason to attack any particular country, it created one and convinced the world’s media and people of the West that they have a genuine and justified reason. Iraq’s alleged WMD’s are perhaps the best example. And even though Russia has submitted proof to the UN that it is the terrorists who are planning a chemical attack, it is unexpected that the Russian warnings will be heeded. https://sputniknews.com/world/201808311067635491-lavrov-proof-attack/
The situation becomes more complex if we take into account both the American Deep State relations with Russia as well as Trump’s relationship with Putin/Russia. In this US Deep State/Trump/Russia-Putin triangle, Trump is perhaps the meat in the sandwich and any new strike will probably be similar to the one of last April; ie enough to keep the neo-cons happy without risking a high escalation with either Russia or Syria.
I have always argued that America cannot attack Syria with the same ferocity that it attacked other nations. https://10.16.86.131/war-on-syria-not-quite-according-to-plan-part-3-a-usa-unable-to-bomb-syria/. Any full-scale attack on Syria will place Israel under risk of retaliatory strikes from both Syria and Hezbollah. It must be remembered that given that America places a greater priority on Israel’s security than its own, it will always be highly improbable that America will deliberately undertake military action that puts Israel’s neck on the chopping board. Furthermore, at this very sensitive period, any such escalation may justify a bigger role for Iran. It is not likely that Trump will take such a risk, even if by not doing so he will aggravate the neo-cons of the Deep State. To this effect, the death of John McCain is a blessing in disguise that has landed on Trump’s lap during this critical time.
Furthermore, a major escalation with Syria can potentially put American naval vessels in the Mediterranean in danger. America does not know what Syrian defences have up their sleeve or what state-of-the-art defence hardware has been provided to them by the Russians. We have recently seen Syrian ground-to-air defences rising to the occasion. Have ground-to-sea defence systems been upgraded as well?
The previous NATO build-up leading up to the April 2018 assault was accompanied by Russian requests to America not to escalate. The current Russian rhetoric however is accompanied by a reciprocal build-up of their own warships and submarines. Is this in preparation for an impending showdown that Russian knows is inevitable or, is it just a show of force?
Much speculation abounds, and any scenario is on the table, but the most unlikely probability is a direct confrontation between America and Russia; unlikely but a limited one this time is possible; especially if any such attacks can be attributed to errors and/or blamed on others. After all, with its world influence waning, its economic might collapsing, and its military superiority challenged by state-of-the-art hypersonic Russian weaponry that America could be decades away from being able to compete with, America is under mounting pressure to show the world, and itself too, that it is still on top. For this reason therefore, America may go a step further.
America does not need to hit Russian targets per se in order to cross Russia’s red line. By betting on Russian wisdom and the knowledge that Russia will only use force if and when necessary, and even then, it will use it in a measured way, America may take a gamble and launch a relatively big strike on Syria; including targeting some sensitive and key locations.
However, Russia will not even try to manage the Syrian response, and if Syria for argument’s sake, retaliates by sinking an American naval vessel, then what? Will America further escalate or pull back?
In reality, ever since the end of WWII, and even though America has been in a constant state of war with some nation or another, America did not engage in a single war with an opponent anywhere near its own size. Picking on countries like Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq is nothing short of bullying. Notwithstanding that America lost its war in Vietnam against all odds, the Vietnamese Army nonetheless did not have the technology and fire power of America.
However, as the geo-strategic makeup of the world reconfigures, as new powers emerge and older ones decline, if America continues to look for wars, sooner or later it will find itself confronting a real and sizeable foe. Unless Russia gets directly involved with America in Syria, the sizeable foe will not present itself in any upcoming battle staged around Idlib. But given that in this time and age a nation does not have to be a super power to possess effective weapons, and because again, it is unclear as to what Syria’s defence capabilities are right now, it is possible that Syria’s defences may produce some surprises. Even Hezbollah back in 2006 was able to destroy an Israeli frigate at sea.
Some voices of “concern” have been beating the drums of panic, insinuating that America will turn Syria into rubble and dust. With America’s soft underbelly (ie Israel) around the corner with tens of thousands of rockets poised to be launched at it if the redline in Syria is crossed, with the upgraded Syrian defences, with Iran on board, and last but not least, with Russian presence, such a scenario is only good for Hollywood material. Such voices which regurgitated the same fearmongering rhetoric for the last five years or so do not serve Syria at all, and if anything, they inadvertently reposition America on top; a position America has lost the day Russia entered Syria nearly three years ago, and on the 28th of September 2015 to be exact.
But the events of the 28th of September 2015 did not eventuate suddenly and unpredictably. They were the outcome of a gradual reversal in technology, economy and power shift that saw a lessening global clout of the West with a concurrent rise of power of leading Eurasian nations. The I-do-as-I-please American policy can no longer be viable, and the most America can do now is to impose sanctions and tariffs on nations that do not follow its directives.
At the end of the day, America has no business at all in Idlib. If America were intent to stamp out terrorism as it claims, it should not stand in the way of the SAA’s push into Idlib; the current global hub for terrorists. Furthermore, using the cliché pretext of a chemical weapons attack, if it happens, is not a justification for the arms build-up in the Mediterranean. And if such a chemical weapons attack does happen, it would be like its predecessors; a false flag orchestrated by the terrorists themselves, under American knowledge and blessing.
In attacking Syria now, America would only be prolonging the war and the suffering of the Syrian people as well as helping the terrorists that it alleges it wants to eradicate.
Any high level escalation that goes beyond the efforts of cleaning up Idlib itself will bring far reaching disaster. After all, as a matter of pragmatic military reality, Russia’s new hypersonic Kinzhal potentially renders all American vessels in the entire Mediterranean as sitting ducks. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/03/russias-kinzhal-mach-10-hypersonic-weapon-is-a-single-stage-pegasus-rocket.html. Such an escalation is extremely unlikely and not one to look forward to in anticipation either, as it can lead to a global nuclear holocaust. But just like the days of the Cold War, the spectre of carnage resulting from an all-out American-Russian confrontation has served as a good deterrent for WWIII not to happen; and it will not happen now either.
Any rational analysis of what is happening in the Mediterranean now clearly indicates that even though America is under more pressure to flex muscle than back in April 2018, the risks of the outcome of a major escalation are not any less; quite the contrary in fact. The real difference, if there is any at all, is that the Russian/Syrian side is now more prepared; should America take bigger gambles.
The most probable outcome of this current bravado is therefore for America to launch yet another tokenistic raid on Syria, one similar to the previous attack of April 2018, all the while, the SAA, unhindered by this show, will move into Idlib, the last remaining terrorist hub west of Euphrates, and what a battle it will be.
Russian MoD: Militants Plotted Attacks in Palmyra, Say They Were Trained by US
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809011067667433-syria-government-forces-clashes-militants/
“The militants’ objective was to conduct a series of terrorist attacks in the vicinity of the city of Palmyra and to ensure the passage of the main forces of about 300 militants to capture the city within the next week,” the center’s report said.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the militants, captured by Syrian government forces, claimed that they had been trained and armed by American instructors in a camp near the US military base in al-Tanf.
The information follows reports of clashes between Syrian troops and terrorists southeast of the city of Palmyra.
“Today, at 5:00 a.m. local time [02:00 GMT], 36 kilometers [22 miles] southeast of the city of Palmyra, clashes between Syrian government troops and a group of militants, who attempted to approach the city of Palmyra from the settlement of at-Tanf, took place… As a result of the clashes, two terrorists were killed, two more were detained and are being questioned,” the Russian Ministry of Defense informed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also stressed that during the whole time of existence of the US military base in al-Tanf there were no reports about any US operations in the area against terrorists.
“Refugees remaining in the [nearby] Rukban refugee camp are today in fact hostages, ‘human shields’ for the militants,” the statement added.”
The author’s article is another affirmation of what many geopolitical and military analysts have been saying for some time about the Syrian civil war. I focused on this paragraph:
“America does not need to hit Russian targets per se in order to cross Russia’s red line. By betting on Russian wisdom and the knowledge that Russia will only use force if and when necessary, and even then, it will use it in a measured way, America may take a gamble and launch a relatively big strike on Syria; including targeting some sensitive and key locations“.
Key phrase, “Russia will only use force if and when necessary, and even then, it will use it in a measured way.”
if Russian special forces are confirmed dead from U.S. cruise missiles launched from sea or airborne platforms, will the Russian military counterattack the U.S. Navy surface vessels and/or B-1 bombers from Qatar? How can they not defend their own blood?
At some point the U.S. will have to pay with the loss of military assets and personnel, otherwise there will be no stopping them as they sail north through the Bosphorus Strait and repeat the same strategy. Imagine the U.S. starts ramping up the “Crimea annexation” story to justify blockading the port of Sevastopol or some other such nonsense.
All of us who drink from the Saker’s vineyard of truth knew over a year ago this is going to be the final outcome; it has to be.
It’s better for a bear to confront its inevitable adversary someplace away from her cave so as to protect her precious and vulnerable cubs. A ravenous wolf pack will taunt the bear until she shows no mercy and crushes their bones into the earth. So must Mother Russia show no fear and stand firm now.
The Russians have declared multiple ‘exercise’ areas in the eastern Mediterranean. US forces will have to fire from central or western areas, putting the Russian ships in their line of fire. The Russians would be enttitled to regard any weapons coming their way as attacks on them and respond accordingly.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dl7fPdSXgAA4-FK.jpg
“… America to launch yet another tokenistic raid on Syria, one similar to the previous attack of April 2018, all the while, the SAA, unhindered by this show, will move into Idlib, the last remaining terrorist hub west of Euphrates, and what a battle it will be.”
Not much of a battle. The tide has turned long ago. The Jewish Mafia mercs will be hit hard, relentless, from all sides. And no green buses this time.
Iran is all in, and so is Russia. Turkey* not so much. Trump better watch his back. Good time to sabotage the Rothschild gang constantly wrecking havoc in all gov departments and agencies. If cry baby Bibi so badly wants a Sarin gas attack, let him execute it himself for once!
*
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-rebels-russians-reach-agreement-to-allow-syrian-army-offensive-in-west-aleppo/
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-officially-adds-large-syrian-jihadist-group-to-terror-list-ahead-of-idlib-offensive/
All terrorists are british assets including white helmets.
Nothing to do with israel.
except for the cozy relationship between Israel and UK – duh.
And Izzie offering ISIL-types some cozy care and medical treatment before sending them back to Syria…..
Well the situation seems east to understand.
The Anglo zionist wanna keep control of ME.
Just as in WWI.
When the Anglo put their hands on the Iraki oil with the usual allies. Zionist and France as junior partners.
Dismembering the Ottoman empire covering at that time Irak and Syria. Signing the Balfour declaration and implementing the Sykes Picot agreement (with Russia in the back ground) Creating Saud with Lawrence of Arabia scheming.
At that time Germany was allied with Ottoman Empire and got their butt kicked good.
Back to 2018. The very same Anglo partnering with the very same Israel and France. With UK Mi6 and the called White Helmets scheming.
Turkey in the rags of the Ottoman Empire.
Russia back from nowhere thanks to Putin.
And Iran being the real new major player. And cementing the shia land bridge between Iran, Irak, Syria and Lebannon.
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-bringing-new-missiles-iraq-syria-defend-us-israel-reports-say-1099850?amp=1
“Iran has reportedly begun moving missiles into Iraq while contributing significantly to the construction of a new missiles production facility in Syria. These actions are likely to be seen as provocations by the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia.”
Why does it upset the Anglo ? Because evrywhere where there is oil or gas they want either to control extraction with their companies and pupprt regime. (KSA)
Or control the transport (Sea and pipeline. Just see US position regarding North Stream 2).
In case of Shia land bridge the Anglo zionist neither control would be pipeline to Europe. Neither extraction.
On the other hand Iran in building power Will one day or another eventually totally control the Hormuz Straight without risk of dramatic retaliation.
Having nuclear threshold capacity and putting missile and bases all over the Shia land Bridge is a step in that general direction.
Therefore the US effort to cut the shia land bridge.
Obviously in addition to Zionist support. As Israel survive in hostile environment is only due to Anglo support and influence in the region.
Seeing the case of Yemen struggle with red sea control and final Shia siege of the Saud as the big prize…
Anglo zionist are globally in very precarious strategic position.
Seeing the Anglo Zionist strategic position today compared to 30 years ago. That is dramatic strategic regression.
Well the bill for such Anglo zionist feat is 7 trillions debts. Well done ! Kudo to Anglo zionist elite !
And lets nit be fooled the Anglo zionist are in back foot in the ME. Whatever all their boasting.
30 years of strategic mistakes will not be erased.
There is price to pay.
Addition.
Trump is fully correct.
Iran is the real threat to Anglo zionist Hegemony over the ME. And the US can do less than nothing. Maybe only delay the inevitable with US weak presence in faster Syria.
The reason to that os Russia involvment.
And again Trump is fully correct. Should the US had treated Russia fairly and with respect I surmise Russia would have not intervened in the ME.
And again Trump is correct. The anti-Russian Zionists in the US (Browder, Neocon, and evangelical all the same) in their Russian hate are the worst enemy of the US and Israel interests.
The Anglo Elite is plain idiot and self defeating.
With such stupidity the Empire will end soon in the sink hole of history.
By going all-in, doubling down and losing each time the Empire and Israel will end up naked with not even a shirt to put on their back.
That is the kind of incompetent elite charge of the US leadership and in the US media.
After 30 years of failures they are not kept accountable and even they do not change their losing narrative and stance.
Truly a degenerate leadership.
just their arrogance is even bigger than their stupidity
I can’t wait to see them paying their price
The figures reported also include families of the terrorists so the actual fighter could could be just one third of any figure mentioned.
Interesting article. However, the chief question is if the US can permit Idlib to fall to the Syrian military. If it does, then the US presence in Syria becomes pointless. Israel would not approve of America withdrawing from the country, nor would the neocons, who still want to remove Assad from power. Then, of course, we have the question of Iran, whose current sovereign status is contrary to US interests, not to mention the huge oil and gas reserves it has, which would make it’s contribution to the Eurasian Economic Union, which Iran wants to join. A US presence in Syria would contribute to a potential attack against Iran.
NATO plans for a false flag attack against idlib have been exposed. The question is will NATO go ahead with another false flag. If not, what will it do. We shall see. The point is that both Washington and NATO have been brought into a difficult position, having to sell an old excuse for another attack against Syria, ostensibly to protect “civilians”, but in reality to protect ISIS which is facing total defeat.
I agree with you, it is a nice riddle to solve. One think I noticed is that Russia decided to move in Idlib just after McCain death. I suppose they knew he had enough political power to lead another US military reaction and now, after his death, they gained enough confidence to proceed. This makes me think that US will not interfere with the “Idlib Operation”, they will play the final game once West Syria will be unified. Why I state this? US already proposed a “truce” with Syrian Government, talking about getting oil quotes from the Est of Syria plus setting there a permanent NATO base and so on..Obviously Assad Government refused..the fact they tried to send a proposal it’s a clue of their intentions. In the meanwhile the US/NATO front can send weapons to the SDF/YPG force, just to prolong the war and try to figure out a new strategy. OR, just to start reinforcing the SDF front for the real final battle: West Syria vs East Syria >>> this is a today tweet about 150 NATO supply-cargo going to SDF forces: https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/2-september-more-than-150-trucks-from-the-international-coalition as I said, a nice riddle..we will see what will happen into the next few days
“NATO plans for a false flag attack against idlib have been exposed.”
——————–
B.F., I think that’s kinda irrelevant….
It’s not required that anyone believes Assad actually launched a chemical attack on his own people. It’s only required that the charge is made and America’s allies pretend they do.
“We know” might be unadulterated tripe but it has become the fact they work by. And they get away with it because nobody stops them or punishes them.
Also, Idlib falling to Damascus won’t remove the American presence in Syria.
If Syria wants the Americans out – she’ll have to throw them out. They’re not leaving any other way. I wish Syria well and every success but the dollar must fall for America to leave…. As long as she has the money to keep paying her troops, secret organisations and proxies, to put pressure on her vassals, they’ll be there.
Look around – America never leaves.
Beware of backing the Bear into a corner.
Imperial vassals put on notice by UK Russian Embassy:
“Russia has credible information that the US and its allies are preparing a new raid of missile strikes on Syria under the false pretext of punishing Damascus for the “use of chemical weapons”. :
“A separate group of militants, trained by the private British security company Olive, has also arrived in the area. The group will be disguised as White Helmets volunteers and will simulate a rescue operation involving locals purportedly injured in the attack.”
“At the same time, the US-UK-France coalition has deployed in the region a strike group of 70 military aircraft equipped with 380 cruise missiles, and US Navy missile destroyers USS Carney and USS Ross, each carrying 28 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Additional forces are ready to join.”
https://www.rusemb.org.uk/fnapr/6642
Add the B1’s etc and that is a massive number of cruise missiles. Will there be sufficient Pantsirs to deal with such a quantity or has there been tacit agreement on which empty buildings will be targeted? The Trumpster will have to do something to look tough now that he has threatened a more massive retaliation than the last for the proposed false flags.
Other alternatives are problematic to put it mildly.
Now the thousands of head choppers are bottled up in Idlib, what is the intention for those that survive?
It is unlikely they will become pacifists and take up flower-arranging and poetry.
”But contradictions of this nature are not alien to Erdogan. After all, he is the NATO member who is exchanging sanctions with the USA, buying weapons from Russia, and desperate to join the EU even though he regards the union members as Muslim-hating Crusaders, and has recently expressed interest in joining BRICS.”
To wit: Erdogan’s opportunism is impressive, to say the very least. At this particular juncture in history, the leeway which Erdogan enjoys is entirely due to the accelerating rot, infighting, and corruption besetting the West all along the line whereas Russia, China, Iran, and several other countries become ever more solidified, unified, dignified — and Erdogan knows it. He also knows that he is loved nowhere except in Turkey, save some Turkish communities abroad.
With regard to Syria, Erdogan is a troublemaker and, given his highly reliable political instinct, he will keep pestering each and every other country involved in the conflict until told — in no uncertain terms — to get the hell out of Syria.
On Erdogan’s alleged interest in joining BRICS: Substituting Turkey for hapless, cowed Brazil would give the organization a new quite apt acronym: The TRICS to boost Erdogan’s sense of self-importance.
Ghassan and Intibah, thank you for this excellent analysis. It’s one of the most cogent I’ve seen anywhere.
I always value the view from the Levant, although I have not always agreed with every nuance, especially those relating to the intentions or strength of the US. But now I find complete agreement. The view from everywhere is the same now, it seems, and I suspect even in Washington.
What is clear from this summary is that Russia has positioned for hot war in the Mediterranean. If it comes, Russia will fight it. As you suggest, this is a cause for relief. Russia clearly has the firepower to destroy the US presence in the theater, and undoubtedly has the will if the situation should escalate this far. And for these reasons, it’s most likely that the situation will not go so far.
If – to dream a little – the situation were to escalate to sinking US ships, I believe this would not necessarily escalate to full nuclear war. Instead, it would be the most catastrophic humiliation for the US, and one that would serve a great good for the world. But also not a scenario anyone sane would wish for.
I always forget about Israel, thanks for the reminder. To call Israel the “soft underbelly of the US” is a masterstroke of analysis. In truth, if anyone ever wanted to threaten the US, then hurting Israel is the way to do it. And nowhere in the world do forces exist in greater supply and readiness to hurt Israel than right here in the regional theater.
It’s a completely unspoken threat – I’ve never seen it articulated anywhere outside of this kind of conjecture in the independent media. Nasrallah, for example, has not suggested an equivalence between US intervention and asymmetric retaliation against Israel, at least not to my limited knowledge. So I don’t know what the strategic thinking is here among the axis powers. But the view from the Levant is always welcome, and this reminder of the true weakness of the US is very useful indeed.
It will be a tokenistic raid, as you suggest. But also as you suggest, the power of tokens from the defenders is growing, and may easily be more than it ever has before. What a battle, indeed.
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – US Syria Envoy James Jeffrey is leading a delegation to Turkey, Jordan, and Israel September 1-4 to discuss Russian allegations about terrorists staging a possible chemical weapons attack provocation, the State Department said in a press release.
“Throughout their trip, Ambassador Jeffrey… will also address Russia’s specious allegations of international plans to stage a chemical weapons attack in Syria,” the release said on Friday.”
Something going on here…..join us or do not be surprised at the lies we tell?
I agree with this assessment: The US will not conduct a major attack on Syria, but if any false flag “chemical attack” is done, the US response may be another “firecracker” endeavor where little damage is done. Trump does not have the nerve to directly confront Russia over 10,000 terrorists boxed in one province in Syria.
As for Turkey, I think Putin has made it clear that if Turkey’s outposts in Idlib remain quiet and do not intervene, they will be bypassed and not engaged. Turkey will sit this one out and negotiations for its return of the provinces it occupies will likely be done later, albeit probably over an extended time period. Russia will back Syria in that, so if Turkey wants its S-400 systems, Turkey will eventually have to decide whether seizing Syrian territory is more important than staying on Russia’s good side.
The US will leave Syria when it becomes apparent that the Kurds have decided to reconcile with Damascus and therefore there is no one to support any more in attempts to derail Syria’s control of the entire country.
In essence, it’s all over but the victory celebrations to come once Idlib is cleared.
“Russia will back Syria in that, so if Turkey wants its S-400 systems, Turkey will eventually have to decide whether seizing Syrian territory is more important than staying on Russia’s good side.”
Caution: Russia depends on Turkey. This is a two-way street.
Which is more important? The S-400 for Turkey or the TurkStream for Russia?
Usa abd the real plotter of war england will attack syria again because these 2 anglo countries are convinced that putin will betray syria in order to please his anglo enemies.
Israel attacked with missiles in Damascus tonight.
https://www.rt.com/news/437423-syria-military-airport-explosion/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809021067677438-syria-damascus-airstrike-air-defense-repel/
https://twitter.com/KevorkAlmassian/status/1036020252566581250
https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/1036017041667440640
https://twitter.com/maytham956/status/1036022182617538560
The core of the article:
“In attacking Syria now, America would only be prolonging the war and the suffering of the Syrian people as well as helping the terrorists that it alleges it wants to eradicate.”
Precisely the goal, mission and intention of America. They get to stay on their terms, build bigger bases and disrupt reconstruction, preserve their proxies and frustrate Iran, Russia and Turkey, while helping Israel attack Hezbollah-Iranian depots and installations.
These reasons and results desired are what the US is all about. And nothing but a resolute Russian can alter that.
If the US would leave Syria, it would weaken its presence in Iraq. Because of the defense of Israel, any plan to defend would logically include just what the US has done in Syria. Split it, control oil and water resources, arm the Kurds, begin to create local government so Syrian government has a rival in the East and Northeast, and defy the UN, Russia, Turkey and China.
This is what any Hegemon would do. The US is doing it.
And over the near term, it works. Over the long term, they will try hard to kill Assad.
Most of all, they will create as many problems for Russia in Syria as they can cause.
thanks Ghassan – great article – I think you’re a great analyst. All the best –
Thank you most heartily for this very incisive analysis. A jewel.
“But the events of the 28th of September 2015 did not eventuate suddenly and unpredictably… The I-do-as-I-please American policy can no longer be viable… ” Precisely, and, of course, this “I do as I please” is not a polemical caricature of US policy: it is quite official. So, as presented in this jewel of an analysis, the “events of the 28th of September 2015” eventuated *because* the policy had become unviable, they did not *become unviable* because of the “events”, i.e., the Russian intervention.
The perhaps seemingly subtle difference is not something for academics or military scholars to discuss and debate in a “military science seminar.” Those who don’t “get it” (e.g. the “Deep State”) have to test it out on the battlefield, so apparently the mid-April 2018 experiment was not sufficient. And the whole test and experiment goes back to Trump-Putin-Helsinki.
Putin himself said so in a press conference *after* the joint press conference in Helsinki: He said that there are powerful forces in the US who are determined to put the unfolding understanding between the US and Russia at risk, all the way to risking the very existence of the state of Israel. That is what Putin said, and that is what the Kadis have laid out succintly here. And that is why we are indeed seeing the internal warfare in the US in the form of the “US Deep State/Trump/Russia-Putin triangle.” Because both Trump and Putin committed themselves, in face-to-face dialogue with each other, the the safety of Israel… which means Israel seeks a “peace” with Iran, Hisbollah, an Iraq freed of American occupation, and no more terrorist proxies. But — and here I depart from the Kadi-analysis, or here I suggest a different track — after Helsinki the “Deep State” is not to be placated, i.e. as in “Trump is perhaps the meat in the sandwich and any new strike will probably be similar to the one of last April; ie enough to keep the neo-cons happy without risking a high escalation with either Russia or Syria.”
The US “entity” still believes and still acts as if “I do as I please” were viable. This “entity” — contrary to TGrump’s pronouncements — insists it willl stay in Syria “after ISIS is defeated,” for which reason this “entity” has been suppling, deployng and training more “ISIS”. If we listen to Pompeo, this “entity” is not quite ready with its preparations for this stay-in-Syria gambit, so he protests that Russia is “escalating” the situation in Idlib. (Well, Mr. Pompeo, yes, that would have been my evaluation also, that you are trying to catch up, that you are articulating a policy standing on half a leg, with no idea of how to implement it, but thanks for the confirmation.) Well, OK, let’s say Russia is “escalating” in a so-called “de-escalation zone”. The question is, “What are you going to do about it? In fact, you cannot do as you please.” But as far as escalation is concerned — remember, in military affairs escalation-dominance is always crucial — the Syrians and Iranians are likewise escalating, military-technical cooperation formalized, the Iranians even announcing shipping their home-grown S-300 to Syria.
OK, Netanyahu is screaming about his “red lines,” but he undoubtedly knows that his screaming will not placate the Deep State. What other effect is his screaming supposed to have? Is it supposed to impress Iran, the Syrians, Russia? The point in time when he could have done anything meaningful and have Israel survive it, is long past. That, after all, was Putin’s point: Israel is safe if Israel flips away from the Deep State. The Deep State screamed after Helsinki — of course that was all orchestrated. Helsinki was orchesrated to force the Deep State to scream, and it did, right on cue. What can Netanyahu do to save his own hide when the Deep State sees he has been flipped?
How far can an escalation go? — It has to go far enough to prove to the Deep State (the Deep State has to prove to itself) that it does not have political escalation-dominance and any attempt to assert it or regain it is tantamount to suicide. And that is why Lavrov offered more extensive military-to-military “deconfliction” contact: a very obscure offer, unless we appreciate that all such “deconfliction” amounts to the Russians having the channels through which to communicate that “no, X you cannot do, Y you cannot do, you cannot do what you please unless you have a political order to go to escalation-level 1-2-3-, and if you do have such an order, we are prepared and we will tell you what it will cost you… down to the3 finest detail.” Via the “deconfliction” channels, the Russians aim to “professionalize” the battlefield. Politicians and academics can articulate any policy they want, but if it is unachievable on the battlefield, it is useless… or it is the proof that, no, “you cannot do as you please.”
And that is of course the point Trump wants to make, it was the point of the Helsinki discussions with Putin. But the Deep State opposes him. Ok, the Deep State must run itself into defeat, but it is a race on the edge of a razor. Internally therefore, even without specific “news”, we can assume that the spotlights are on to discover who, also in the military, dares to move from verbal opposition to overt rogue insubordination. Calling all rogue officers and commanders: move now, it is your last chance.
In the meantime, as much as the russia array of forces is impressive, so is the force the Syrians are fielding, running “behind the lines” espionage films openly to show their penetration, exacerbating intra-Jihadi faction fights, showing they are already in control even before unleashing their men and hardware. The US “entity” is indeed panting from behind, unable to catch up.
Out of fairness and for the sake of debate as well as transparency, I call your collective esteemed attention to a completely contrary analysis by Alastair Crooke, https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/01/is-suez-event-being-prepared-for-syria.html, Is a ‘Suez’ Event Being Prepared for Syria?
Mr. Crooke has “credentials” I will never have. He thinks any Syria-understandings from Helsinki are simply dead, and he thinks the neo-cons are in the ascendancy. In my view, however, his analysis presumes the US can flip policy options the way you flip a coin, without considering the argument the Kadis have made — you can no longer do what you please — which I believe is the reality-base for all Russian policy commitments. Counter-factually and counter-experience, Mr. Crooke seems to assume that Trump has feasible alternatives to the “understandings” on Syria, Israel, Iran etc. reached in Helsinki, or made provocatively public there and based on a previously obtained understanding (which, let’s not forget, Bolton also worked on), leading to the Deep State and / or neo-con freak-out. My argument has been that there are no feasible alternatives. Political finesse is needed to sell that fact wihout incurring the accusation that those who acccept the situation are needlessly surrendering to the Russians. Thus Mr. Crooke, again only in my view, underestimates the operational political advantage of signalling a merely outlined but rigorous policy in order to flush rogues out of the pits in which they are hiding. In other words, Mr. Crooke does not understand the military-operational aspect of politics, or he does not understand the political elements of military operations. The Russians, the Syrian and Iranian leaderships do understand these things. If I am right — of course, I will put a “minus” sign on my check-list if I am wrong — Trump understands them also. The battlefield is fluid, not only in Syria.
I’ve been wondering for the past couple of years where all the head-chopping scum being driven out of Palmyra, Aleppo, Raqqa, Homs, Duma, Der ez-Zor, Mosul and other scenes of ferocious battles were going to end up when cornered for their final fight in Idlib.
Will they fight to the death? Will the Syrians and Russians kill them all if that’s the action they force? Will the self-described most beneficent and exceptional country known in the history of Man, otherwise known as the United States, allow that to happen?
Or will it be a pretext for the saintly Yanks to start slinging all the hardware they’ve got at “the animals” from Damascus and their fellow Russian war criminals? If Uncle Sam’s trained butchers in Idlib, being the cowards they truly are, decide to surrender instead of fighting to the end, what is to be done with as many as 100,000 murderous psychopaths?
Syria doesn’t have an infrastructure as it is (it’s all been destroyed thanks to the big Uncle’s largess), let alone prison space for that many large mammals. Turkey is NOT going to want them as refugees. Nor are any of the other actors in the region complicit with the Saudi-Israeli axis that pushed this carnage. That lot would overthrow Mohammed bin Sultan in a fortnight. The Israelis could try cramming them into Gaza, but what a horror show that would present to the world for the Zionist cause.
Perhaps the brain trust in Berlin and Brussels would like to assign them to live as guests in the homes of Europeans throughout the EU? You know, like a student exchange program. Probably a good many of them will actually be citizens of half the countries in Europe and just head back home with no questions asked by the EU or NATO. I think the UK just recently gave the infamous throat slashers called the “Beatles” a free pass to re-enter their British homeland. I pity the people of Europe, but trading the 2 million or so refugees they are presently burdened with for this vicious lot is probably the best deal they can hope for, because Trump surely is never going to let any of these killing machines into the United States. Is he?
The credibility tank is empty. Even the plebs in Europe now question these chemical attacks, apolitical men and even women who know more about Marvel movies than Syria, who have never questioned their kleptocratic overlords, are starting to question the authenticity of these chemical hoaxes.
They running a risk by trying this shit again.
“Ever since the battle of Al-Qusayr and the collapse of the terrorist forces, fighters were sent to Idlib, pending political settlement.”
‘Pending political settlement’ huh? Really?
And there I thought all along it was to have them all crunched nicely together into one space – to excise Mr Lavrov’s boil so to speak…….
… I wish those surgeons sharp scalpels and good cutting.
The Russians have made it quite clear to the anglo/zionist neo-cons that there will be a price to pay for any attack on Syria – or for that matter the ME. The zionist expansion plan with emphasis on the weakening of Iran has come to complete failure. There are many signs of that – clearly on the battlefield the merc forces are finished.
What is more subtle is the propaganda language of the MSM presstitutes and the colour coded politicos. The MSM has been reduced to distraction based on hookers and Putin. As for the mouth piece of the zionist entity Bibi cannot even put together cohesive threats against the resistance.
Trump and his group of oligarch supporters understand the dysfunctional nature of the US foreign policy. Specifically that the zionists and their vassals have totally jumped the shark and are now desperate to maintain hold on to power even after complete policy failure. Interesting/revealing that Trump was not at McCain’s funeral. This demonstrates that there is a real war happening withing the US elites.
My take is that Trump and his backers are giving the occultists what they want – the pull out from the Iran deal and even a military build up against Syria. However, by doing so the consequences of US military failure against Syria, Iran and Russia are made absolutely salient to the zionists.
1. Elimination of the zionist entity.
2. Power base collapse of the zionists in the US.
3. Zionists to take the fall for the weaken position of the US as global military power.
4. Zionists to take the fall for the economic collapse of the US as the holder of the global reserve currency.
i believe you are wrong,
/the-us-state-department-openly-outlined-its-plans-to-guarantee-americas-global-primacy/ this article will partly explain why and that i do not believe thump is your “white knight” coming to save murica could also be part of it.. imo thump is a zionist, his own decisions convinced me of that. his Israel first policies and the Jerusalem bs was what tipped the scale in my head.
I never claimed that Trump is a white night rather a front for another gang of oligarchs. The israel first priority is not the issue – rather the inability to sustain it is. The neocons have failed and simply cannot deliver on the promised US=ZIONIST global hegemon.
As for Jerusalem that is a red herring – who cares where the occultists call their capital. Certainly not the casino pimp Trump or any of the other POTUSs before him going back to the mid-90’s. For that matter the Palestinians could care even less who know full well that time is on their side.
A far more useful and efficient vassal to the zionists was McCain – notice that POTUS was not present at the funeral. Normally the US elites get it together for these kind of hero worship charades – but not this time. A sign that there is a real internal war for power in the US.
i have said this before and i’ll repeat it here again…..call it a gut feeling….a vision….a reasoned conclusion….when the US is finally up against the TRUE foe….equally armed….a foe that will not back down and has the ability to destroy the US supply of fighting hardware…..ships….planes….bases…..has the abilities to take down communications…..to scramble weapon signals…..to create ghosts that don’t exist…..to create confusion….fear….uncertainty…..that will be the moment the US backs down…..retreats….stops the aggression…..that’s when the US returns home…..and like Russia in 1914 turns it’s own country into the new “gulag’…..what other option is there….the world has turned….no other weak victims to plunder….rape….their Rothschild banking system has played it’s last hand…..country after country turns their backs and looks east…..the dollar is a reviled worthless medium…..no longer trusted…..so the last option for the US is to eat their own….to subjugate….to imprison….but the problem there is that the population is armed….and they too shall rise up…..not good either way….but not to worry….”the universe is unfolding as it should”…..and a new reality is very much on it’s way…..
“Even Hezbollah back in 2006 was able to destroy an Israeli frigate at sea.”
All I can find is that the Hezbollah anti-ship missile hit a crane on the INS Hanit. The explosion killed four sailors. Had the missile hit the hull, the INS Hanit would have been sunk.
The Hanit captain claimed that the missile defense system was not activated because the Hanit crew did not expect Hezbollah to have anti-ship missiles.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4947965,00.html
The Zionists know they cant stop Idlib eventually being liberated and are already busy preparing their next fallback plan. That is the next battle area will be the eastern Deir Ezzor region they already control with their SDF proxies there. Note they are setting up more and more bases (some with airfields) there and the US is trucking in huge amounts of logistics and armaments. They obviously are planning on a permanent presence as thats how Israel directs them as they are the puppeteer and have complete control over the American state. Sad, but the US is not sovereign and does not act in the interests of their own people.