By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and cross-posted to other sites
(Written this morning in Istanbul, BEFORE Putin buried the Minsk agreements. Everything else – and beyond – stands.)
History will register that the birth of the baby twins – Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics – only a few hours before 2/22/22, was simultaneous to the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.
As my columns have stressed for a few years now, Vladimir Putin has been carefully nurturing his inner Sun Tzu. And now it’s all in the open: “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
The thunderbolt was months in the process of being meticulously polished. To paraphrase Lenin, who “created Ukraine” (copyright Putin), we did live many decades in only these past few days. It all started with the detailed demands of security guarantees sent to the Americans, which Moscow knew would be rejected. Then there was the Russia-China joint statement at the start of the Winter Olympics – which codifies not only the strategic partnership but also the key tenets of the multipolar world.
The culmination was a stunning, nearly one hour-long address to the nation by Putin shortly after the Russian Security Council live session deliberating on the request for independence by the DPR and the LPR (here is a condensed version.)
A few hours later, at an emergency UN Security Council meeting, Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya precisely outlined why the recognition of the baby twins does not bury the Minsk agreements.
The baby twins actually declared their independence in May 2014. In 2015 they signed the Minsk agreements as one of the interested parties. Theoretically they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever decide to respect the agreements, which will never happen because the US has vetoed it since 2015. Moreover, the people of Donbass do not want to be subjected to a regime harboring neo-Nazis.
As Nebenzya outlined, “I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the LPR and DPR had already declared independence. The fact that Russia today recognized it does not change the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, since Russia is not one (…) Another thing is that the Minsk agreements have long been openly sabotaged by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. Now we see that many colleagues want to sign that the Minsk agreements are dead. But this is not the case (…) We are still open to diplomacy, but we do not intend to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.”
And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial support for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass: “The main task of our decision [on recognizing independence] was to preserve and protect these lives. This is more important than all your threats.”
There you go: Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a concept invented by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.
That certified nullity, German chancellor Scholz, deriding Putin’s characterization of a genocide in Donbass as “laughable”, was a decisive factor in the birth of the baby wins. Putin, in his address to the nation, especially took time to detail the Odessa massacre: “We cannot but shudder when we remember about the situation in Odessa, when people were burned alive (…) And those criminals who did this, they are not punished (…) But we know their names, and we will do everything to punish them (…) and to bring them to justice.”
What about China?
Geopolitically, in Eurasian terms, two huge questions stand out: the role of the CSTO and the response from China.
If we look at the Article 19, Chapter VI of the CSTO charter, we learn that, “any state sharing the goals and principles of the Organization and being ready to undertake the obligations containing in this Charter and other international treaties and resolutions effective within the framework of the Organization may become a member of the Organization.”
That would open the door for the baby twins, as soon as they have finalized all the bureaucratic endeavors pertaining to new, independent nations, to request CSTO membership. Incidentally, CSTO secretary-general Pashinian has already gone to Moscow to discuss it.
China is a way more complex proposition. One of the key tenets of Beijing’s foreign policy is the fight against separatism – embedded in the foundation of the SCO. So Beijing cannot possibly recognize the baby twins, or what would amount to Novorossiya – yes, Putin did pronounce the magic word – before Kiev itself does or, a serious possibility, completely disintegrates.
The Foreign Ministry so far has been extremely cautious. Wang Yi has reiterated “China’s long-standing position that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected, and the purposes & principles of the UN Charter must be upheld.”
Further on down the road, presumably after some serious exchanges between Wang Yi and Lavrov, China can always find myriad ways to unofficially help the baby twins – including advancing BRI-related connectivity and sustainable development projects.
As for Kiev disintegration, that’s directly linked to Moscow demanding the immediate stop of the mini-blitzkrieg against Donbass, otherwise they will bear full responsibility. Yes, regime stalwarts will be hunted and punished – complete with a possible War Crimes Tribunal. No wonder all sorts of oligarchic/political rats, big and small, are scurrying away, to Lviv, Poland and the UK.
The Munich effect
The intervention of all 12 members at the Security Council session, combined with Putin’s address to the nation was the stuff of gripping geopolitical drama. Putin’s body language and the look in his eyes testified to the immense gravity of the moment – and it all came to the forefront when he embarked in a concise history lesson spanning a century.
Barely containing his anger at the countless ways Russia has been vilified by the West, and taking no prisoners when referring to communism, what mostly stood out was the clear-cut rendition of the insurmountable antagonism between the Anglo-American islands and the civilizational Heartland – or the clash between maritime powers and land powers. That Eurasia classic was the bulk of his exposition: the recognition of the baby twins took less than three minutes.
The Munich Security Conference, this past weekend, had made it all so explicit. Munich, as terrifying as it was in terms of a congregation of headless chickens posing as eagles, at least confirmed everything is in the open.
The enemy is Russia. NATO infinite expansion – to outer space – is against Russia. And then we had a parade of add-on threats: no disarmament in Eastern Europe, cutting off the Russian economy from the EU, end of Nord Stream 2, Ukraine in NATO, world order built on “universal liberal values”.
Munich spelled out No Compromise Whatsoever – which was exactly what Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev and co. expected, the warmongering rhetoric burying any meaningful discussion of migration, inflation, cyber wars, the European energy crisis and, of course, the only thing that matters for the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex, as defined by Ray McGovern): let’s milk this Eurotrash lot for untold billions in new contracts, let’s isolate Russia, let’s destroy Nord Stream 2 to sell them our ultra expensive LNG, let’s keep them on a leash – forever.
So actually it’s not even war against Russia: the $30 trillion-indebted Empire with a woke military attached simply could not afford it. Not to mention the certified freak out in case they receive a phone call from Mr. Khinzal and Mr. Zircon : cue to the spectacular Russian display of “military and technical” superiority, hypersonic and otherwise – staged, irony of ironies, in synch with the circus in Munich.
What we have here is so lame: just a lowlife offer-you-can’t-refuse racket to be inflicted on the EU.
The Indivisible Security dance
The rabid Munich “No Compromise” show; the imperially-ordered Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg against Donbass; and the role of the US Lack of Intelligence Community – an Andrei Martyanov-coined howler – altogether sealed the deal for the Security Council deliberations and Putin’s decision.
Considering the ideological stupidity of the current Brussels gang – Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, Borrell –, incapable of understanding even basic economics, the fact remains that the EU without Russian energy is doomed. Martyanov stresses the algorithm: Russia can afford the break up with Europe. Europe cannot. The US just wants to collect. And we’re not even talking about the dire, incoming ramifications of the systemic crisis across NATOstan.
Even as Moscow plays a very long, calculated game, as it stands that does not necessarily mean that Russia will be “winning” the baby twins while “losing” Europe. Russia’s strategic swing repeatedly baffles the Atlanticist combo. The US lack of intelligence community was predicting a Russian “aggression” every other day – and still is. Instead they got the baby twins as the latest independent republics of the Global South.
Even before Munich, the Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg, and the recognition of the baby twins, Moscow had again warned it may respond with “military and technical measures” to ensure its own security after the US and NATO blatantly ignored key points from its proposal for a long-term European security architecture, and instead “cherry-picked” issues from a package deal.
Moscow will not let the Americans run away from the by now notorious 10-page Russian response. Putin, addressing the Stavka, had already warned “we are in a situation (…) where we are forced to resolve it.” Which bring us to what John Helmer niftly qualified as Russia’s black box defense. The beauty is no one knows what’s inside the black box.
Enter, once again, the “military-technical measures” that will be “reciprocal” (Putin) to what US and NATOstan are already deploying against Russia. They won’t necessarily be implemented in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, in the airspace above Donbass, even in cyberspace. It could be anywhere – from the Syrian theater to Latin America.
Surprise! That’s what strategic ambivalence, ambiguity, or – let’s get down to the rhythm – swing is all about. You don’t believe in the principle of indivisible security? Fine. Now we dictate the security rhythm. You’re not gonna stop deploying nuclear weapons outside your territory? Fine. Here’s some reciprocity. You’re not gonna accept legally binding guarantees of our security? Fine. Meet our “military-technical” measures.
Now dance, suckers.
pepe, i propose that it’s possible china looks upon the ‘2 babes’ as essentially Taiwan, chinese speaking living on a province of china’s that has been arbitrarily declared its own nation. to have it return is not a matter of separatists bt of what is inherently right. i think we might hold of & wait. one thing is certain, none of this was not discussed with china, probably for years.
Exactly. After Putin’s history lesson, maybe China will see the situation as the return to the motherland of areas that once belonged to Russia. Think Taiwan, rather than separatists breaking away.
Taiwan’s history of being part of China is somewhat limited but as to whether even western Ukraine which Russia is not making territorial claims over is “Ukraine” is debateable.
Taiwan is more akin to Japanese Islands, Korean peninsula, Vietnam Jungle. There is enough distance from the core (Taiwan Straight), that ultimately Taiwan is defensible. And if the people want to fight for it, they can maintain their independence. However maybe an accommodation by both China and Taiwan, to recognize it as a little brother country like China did with Korea and Vietnam, may be the best outcome.
Ukraine is more like Tibet, Donetsk/Luhansk like Hong Kong. Ukraine and Tibet are vital for Russia and China’s strategic security, Ukraine is on a flat plain with Russia. Donetsk and Luhansk are just as easily traversed by Russia as HK is for China.
Three Antonovs were tracked by the amateur but obsessive plane spotters leaving Ukraine at the same time yesterday.
Curiosity as to who aboard, and why.
What, oh what is Uncle $hmuel to do? Since he is so exceptional, he is bound to think
of something stupid.
uncle S is grabbing the golan with biden’s blessing. i believe putin& team anticipated this.
The road to the Return of the Golan, and the Liberation of Palestine, runs through the Fed.
It is historical fact that Russians chase retreating enemy all the way to their capitol. Never accept ceasefire until the complete neutralization of the enemy. Germans and French learned that the hard way.
If Anglos payed attention in history class, they would understand gravity of situation they brought upon themselves.
Can we access President Putin’s ‘history class’ in writting? It would be an important document for history teachers. Any web address to access it? It would be easy to make a machine translation to any available language (I had difficulty understanding/following the online translation). Thanks.
here are the transcripts … mod
English
en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
Russian
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
Home site in English
en.kremlin.ru
Many thanks!!!
China’s response has been complete silent acquiescence and acceptance of Russia’s position. Their statement was basically a non-statement where China simply said they are “concerned about escalations” (never pinning any blame on Russia whatsoever) and simply said they would like to see things continue to resolve via ‘dialogue’. In short, China has come out openly without any criticism of Russia whatsoever and more along the lines of de facto support.
The most funny thing is that somehow quite neutral China’s response was labelled by some Western outlets as “humilating for Putin”. They don’t mention at the same time that China condemns USA for stirring up shit in Taiwan and provoking war.
After Putin’s history lesson, maybe China will see the situation as the return to the motherland of areas that once belonged to Russia. Think Taiwan, rather than separatists breaking away.
@ Pepe
“…Now dance, suckers.”
Thanks, Pepe, as always.
The standing applause Ze received at the Munich dancing circus speaks volumes about the level of brain degradation the West has been digging themselves into, and their collective “Lack of Intelligence Community.” Ze was followed by another clown, BoJo, who is using the West’s offensive against Russia to save his ass from his drinking binges.
Dumb and dumber.
The unified element at the circus was Russophobia.
They are prisoners to their rotten ideology, which is very convenient for Russia. Why interrupt your enemy when is making a mistake? Let them foam at the mouth, meanwhile Putin moves to Donbass exercising his genuine R2P, throws down the gauntlet to the corrupt West, and we just sit and watch what new toys and tricks Russia will pull from the black box.
Lone Wolf
There is a parallel between China’s philosophy of mutual benefit through normal trade relations and Russia’s awareness about security. It is not only of existential concern, but also indivisible. Europe is mediocre and its leadership does not understand these things yet, even though the security dilemma is well known among experts. It is weak and hides behind the likewise ignorant and destructive giant from across the Atlantic.
So it becomes clearer what the two long-table discussions in Moscow, 6 hours with Emmanuel Macron and 4 hours with Olaf Scholz, were all about. The 4-meter long white lacquered table was made by Italian craftsmen. Sitting at a symbolic distance, which was also convenient considering the pandemic, Vladimir Putin simply wanted to corroborate what he suspected already.
Surely Putin has walked with them that extra kilometer, and he has talked with them that extra hour around that extra long, extra finely made table… looking forward to seeing him there next with Salvini, Orban and Kurz (as appointed EU representitives).
Yes, Matteo Salvini is one who has the courage of his convictions. He would get along with Vladimir Putin, they would do the job right. And Italy could export fine Parmesan cheese and Italian craftsmanship freely benefiting all. Ditto Victor Orban. Sebastian Kurz, I’m sure of it, has been deliberately targeted by the Atlanticists. What a waste of young talent that is and a loss for Austria! Macron on the other hand is an Atlanticist, sometimes putting on a friendly face in Moscow, but mainly intent on winning against Marion le Pen in the upcoming elections. That is his real game. What is his interest in the well-being of Ukraine or Russia or even his own country? Mme. le Pen is a Gaullist and is concerned about the harm that Europe inflicts on itself by its stance in these matters. And Olaf Scholz? He is a bumbling fellow. I saw him on television today, he seemed sad as he announced the cessation of the Nordstream 2 certification. The German political class rejected the sharper Markus Söder as a candidate in the recent elections. He would probably have won against Scholz. Germany has never really been a sovereign country since its defeat in World War I, which occured 104 years ago, with the exception of a horrific 12-year interlude of collective madness caused by the revanchist policies of England and France. Scholz personifies this German subordination very well.
@Vittoria: “Kurz (as appointed EU representitive).
“Mistah Kurz, he dead” — Conrad, The Heart of Darkness
Don’t tell me that even that fresh, young kurtz can’t be saved from the intractable ‘heart of darkness’.. faith! dear deplorable; and don’t ever let hope depart from you in your time in the jungle-
“…birth of the baby twins – Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics – only a few hours before 2/22/22, was simultaneous to the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.”
There are also the two proposals as candidates for a new birth, the formalization of the special alliance between China and Russia, and what about an eventual acceptance by the world of the “birth of the baby twins”? All these can be precursors or harbingers of that still ongoing birth. Many pundits have gotten too enthusiastic. It takes more than one deft move or day to announce such a birth.
One thing has occurred to me. At the present time – and I am not absolutely certain of this – is that two-thirds of Lugansk region and one third of Donetsk – is that they have been occupied by the Ukies following the 2015 war. Is the Kiev regime still holding on to these regions or will the 2 republics lay claim to all of their regions.
Zelensky in Münich has already publicly raised the threat of the pursuit of a nuclear option. Putin should now find ample proof of Ukraine’s intended production of WMD. Everything according to well worn NATO logic follows. Simples. Zelensky scores a massive own EUFA goal and loses. Russia finds real WMD in Ukraine. Much better!
Regarding the recognition of the two new Republics, and I think it will soon become clear that the recognition will extend to the full extent of the two oblasts. I don’t know what that means in the north of the two areas, but in the south, Mariupol is now, or soon will be, secure. And, this means that the Sea of Azov is also secure.
“Theoretically they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever decide to respect the agreements, which will never happen”
If the only alternative is for them to become these independent republics, don’t be so sure. If this indeed is the stand of the Russian government, that the Minsk agreements are not dead yet, then it gives to Ukraine the last word on this. For Putin, in particular, it means to erase his speech to the nation and the world. So this speech by Putin was actually about saving the Minsk agreements? Wait then for calls to arise soon regarding the need to go back to the Minsk agreement context (two Ukranian regions). That’s no Sun Tzu, if you ask me. The birth of twins announcement looks more premature.
“The birth of twins announcement looks more premature.”
The Minsk agreement aren’t to be acted out by Ukraine on a unilateral basis. LDNR might become part of Ukraine again if negotiations produced a result that would be acceptable to the two former oblasts, now republics. Given the history, I really can’t see that happening.
Reinforcing what others have stated about China’s likely position of sympathy with Russia on this issue, but not only from the perspective of Taiwan, I surmise the Chinese are cognizant of the US’s sponsorship of terrorism in the Ukraine through the proxy Kiev Junta being equivalent to its sponsorship of Uighur terrorists in Xinjiang through the proxy Saudi Wahhabist Clan, both becoming excuses for accusations of “human rights violations” in the US’s hybrid war.
My predictions:
Russia will make the case to the UN that its hand was forced by Ukie genocide against their own Russian citizens. The case will be documented up the wazoo and include everything the Chinese are accused of in Xinjiang but haven’t done. The Chinese will take great pleasure in backing the Russians at the UN (beautiful irony).
Meanwhile Russian jets will fly over the Ukie parts of Donetsk-Lugansk, taking out artillery and mortar positions that fire on the Russian part. Soon an order to evacuate the Donbas entirely will be issued by Russia. Any resistance will result in a full-on air and missile assault and Russia will seize Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast.
Then Russia will turn to NATO’s weak underbelly and pressure Rumania to invite the Americans to remove their missile base and also pressure them to pull out of NATO, sign a nonaggression treaty, and go officially neutral. The Russo-China alliance can then absorb Serbia and pluck Montenegro, Macedonia, and Bulgaria from NATO, situating it on the Adriatic. At that point Europe and possibly America will agree to the full treaty Russia proposed in December and the new European security order will be locked in place, with NATO defunct and America humiliated.
GREAT Pepe.. thanks…
Update today from Donbass. Russia seriouly needs to quickly flood that area with FSB to hunt down Ukie terrorists,before they cause more deaths:
“Journalists Under fire Investigating IED That Killed 3 civilians”
A group of several journalists came under what seemed to be Ukrainian SPG fire while investigating the site of where 3 civilians were killed.
Early this morning not long after the Russian President announced that Russia will officially be recognizing the Ukraine breakaway republics of DPR and LPR a roadside IED clew up a car and damaged another van killing 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvxtJ6JnHF0&ab_channel=PatrickLancaster
Wang Yi’s commentary on the new Donbass republics is perfectly correct. In reply to Blinken’s recent phone call insisting on the territorial integrity of Ukraine he underscored the non compliance with the Minsk treaty – which is international law – as the real rationale for the events that have led up to the present. Both foreign ministers knew clearly why that was the case. It was a polite and diplomatic way of telling Blinken to shove it. As well, we should note the Russian claim that the recent recognition of the republics does not foreclose Minsk. I wouldn’t write Minsk off just yet. Essentially Minsk is a treaty that enshrines the idea of a political confederation for a diverse Ukraine, a confederation as distinct from a union. Such a prospect seems likely to me. The breakup of the country is very possible and a confederation answers the need for continued cooperation while preserving local autonomy. It is not to be expected that the other regions of Ukraine will comply with Catholic radicals governing the country from the West. Russia has insistently maintained that it is not interested in absorbing the Ukraine into the Russian Federation. Therefore some sort of negotiated confederation is the sort of answer that the UN conscious Shanghai powers are most likely to pursue (with our without the cooperation of the doubtful ‘rules based international order’ mouthpieces).
My initial take on the situation and the historicity of Ukraine; https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2022/02/notes-on-ukraine-for-wilsonian.html
The master chess player has made his move. Took over without shooting a single bullet. This is what you call diplomacy.
When the thugs are scrambling to figure out how to react you know we are headed in the right direction.
Putin said today that “the Minsk agreements were dead long before yesterday’s recognition of the people’s republic of Donbass, and that “they were killed not by us”. So, Nebenzya made a mistake with his statement saying the opposite. We know from the substance and tenor of the speech Putin gave that Nebenzya made this mistake by himself. They are indeed independent republics now and no one can force them now to go back with Ukraine. In fact, they were kind of forced to sign the Minsk agreements. I remember their wish was to keep marching all the way to Kiev.
The Western Oligarchs think no matter what happens, they’ll all be fine, only they won’t be when they are in the Docks answering the Atrocities and War Crimes they’ve committed.
If the sanctions hurt the West more than Russia, Russia has won.
It’s been said that Russia’s recycling the western r2p concept. Apparently they’re about to recycle another concept that’s been applied to Russia in the nineties (in a more general way): shock therapy.