by Mister Unknown
Recently, there has been no shortage of highly pessimistic commentaries published & republished , pointing out the supposed ” follies ” of Russia’s eastern pivot, by highlighting this year’s decline in Sino-Russian trade, China’s stock market volatility, and its supposed economic “weakness”. The conclusion implied by these articles is clear: “Russia’s economic pivot to China is failing, because increased economic cooperation has not mitigated Russia’s recent economic woes, or the effect of sanctions. China cannot save Russia, and the latter must continue depending on the West.”
This is essentially a straw-man conclusion. One thing should be plainly apparent through even a casual examination of Russia’s biggest recent commercial agreements with China: most of these arrangements with China were NEVER INTENDED to offset the impact of Russia’s current recession, but rather to position Russia’s economy for greater long-term diversification and upward mobility on the global economic value chain.
The deal which draws the most frequent & recent use of this straw-man is the $400 billion Sino-Russian ‘Power of Siberia’ gas deal. What is often overlooked is the fact that implementation was not set to take place until 2018 in the earliest scenario, and more likely closer to 2020 given potential construction delays. Even then, this is a long-term arrangement that spans 30 years – which at best comes to about $13.4 billion of revenue per year. Bottom line, offsetting the immediate (’14-’16) economic pain of the recession and sanctions was NEVER the intent of this deal, and should not be a success metric.
Another deal that has come under plenty of media fanfare is China’s involvement in the Moscow-Kazan high-speed rail . Again, the earliest completion date cited is 2018, meaning Russia’s economy will not reap any productivity gains from faster transportation at least until then. From an investment point of view, the immediate economic impact is even more negligible. China will partially finance this HSR route, which could total $5 billion over the next 3 years; this means an addition of $1.6-1.7 billion per year into Russia’s economy, which amounts to a paltry ~0.084% of Russia’s $2 trillion GDP.
A third attention-worthy agreement is the Sino-Russian joint-development of wide-body airliners , an endeavor that would usually take 8-20 years before bearing any fruit, if the Boeing 777 is an reasonable benchmark.
Finally, there is the Sino-Russian business incubato r in Skolkovo, along with Russia’s plan to establish a Skolkovo branch in Vladivostok. From a pure probability standpoint, this is an endeavor that may NEVER yield any direct benefits. 75-90% of all startups and small businesses are destined to fail, most of those that do not fail after 1-2 years will never have billion-dollar valuations or high-profiled IPOs; we should not expect startups from Skolkovo to perform differently.
Given that most strategic Sino-Russian initiatives will NOT bear fruit for many years, does that mean they are “failures”, or should not be pursued? The answer to that question really depends on how Russians perceive their own strategic priorities and their own future. It is in Russia’ interests to diversify its trade portfolio, and eventually move away from being Europe’s resource appendage? Is it in Russia’s interests to modernize its transportation infrastructure, so as to stimulate economic development in its eastern regions? Is it in Russia’s interests to move up the international business value chain, from being solely a natural resources exporter to a competitor in high-tech, high-margin industries such as commercial aviation and robotics? Is it in Russia’s interests to foster entrepreneurship and innovation in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy? Is it in Russia’s interest to be an economically sovereign and independent country? If the answer to the questions above is ‘yes’, then there is NO DOUBT that Russia should continue these initiatives with China, and continue its eastern pivot strategy.
The harsh reality is that with the exception of a few situations , there is relatively little China can do to ease the pain of current low energy prices and economic sanctions. This is the inevitable consequence of Russia’s 20-year+ over-reliance on resource exports to Europe for its economic development. In the face of this reality, Russia has two choices: instant gratification by acquiescing to the West in the hope of short-term relief, and continuing down the path of ‘business-as-usual’, or partner with China to diversify and modernize its economy. The latter involves far more hard work and risk-taking, but is also a far more viable way to move Russia on a path of genuine sovereignty and stable economic modernization.
if I may mods
gonna repost this here as seems relevant
“SOCHI, October 6. /TASS/. Luxembourg is ready to set up a financial platform for operations in rubles, according to the documents prepared to the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister of Luxemburg Xavier Bettel.
Earlier the Luxemburg side proposed to set up a specialized fund under the auspices of the Moscow government at Luxemburg’s financial platform, to create parallel and cross funds in Moscow and Luxembourg with participation of Russian and international capital, to more actively use advantages of Luxembourg-based listing and bond issuance, to carry out mutually supportive operations on Luxembourg and Moscow bourses, the document said.
According to it, “Luxemburg’s leadership sees no obstacles for creating a financial platform for operations in rubles provided that there is a political will from the Russian side and enough demand and offer in the Russian national currency either.”
In 2014 and 2015, a delegation from the Moscow government visited Luxembourg to forge cooperation in setting up an international financial center in Moscow.
The dynamics of the trade and economic cooperation between the two states “signals that mutual sanctions are negatively affecting the economy of the Grand Duchy first of all,” the document said. In January-July 2015, mutual trade turnover decreased by 26.4% to $87.8 mln compared with the same period last year. Luxembourg’s import dropped almost by half to $61.9 mln while Russian export exceeded the level of first 7 months of 2014 fourfold to reach $25.9 mln.
Luxembourg is the third-largest foreign investor in Russia after Cyprus and the Netherlands. According to the data provided by the Russian Central Bank, the country’s investment in the Russian economy dropped by $4 bln in 2014 while the volume of accumulated investment totaled $38.7 bln. Russian investment in Luxembourg stood at $700 mln in 2014 while the volume of accumulated investment in the Grand Duchy reached $12 bln.
The general argument of the above article is broadly correct. Russia’s economic cooperation with China is intended to yield results in the coming years and decades, not FY 2015 (DUH!) Only people completely clueless about economics or people who are more interested in propaganda than reality do not realize this.
Moreover, the article should have pointed out that the claims in the Western media over China’s alleged “economic weakness” is complete horseshit (pardon my language but that’s what they are)
China has been growing at earth-shattering pace for more than 3 decades, and this is only a relative (and inevitable) slowdown to a rate of growth (still very brisk) more akin to a middle-income economy (which is what China is now becoming) rather than a low-income one (which is what China used to be)
Moreover, the cooperation between China and Russia is absolutely vital for BOTH countries, not just Russia. With TPP (aimed by the US at China) going through yesterday, and TTIP (aimed by the US at Russsia) maybe going through, China and Russia are compelled to create an integrated economic space in the Eurasian core, since their influence over the Pacific and Atlantic rims will be curtailed by the US of A.
Also, there is the purely strategic/military motive for both Russia and China.
Oh, and one more thing. The US seems to have totally failed to dislodge Russia from the Euro-markets. Recent events on the Syrian ground (and air :) as well as recent moves and statements by Germany are indicative of this.
And one more-more thing. Russia’s economy has kept up pretty well under a perfect storm of economic warfare, low oil, gas and commodity prices and also fighting a war on two fronts against the US Empire. Under such colossal pressure, a one-year recession (matters not very much if it’s gonna be 2.7%, 3.5% or even 4%) is the best outcome one could ever dream of.
@Stavros
Thank you for the feedback. I actually considered delving into the notion of a PRC economic recession, so as to explain that the recent slower economic growth is an inevitable outcome of a transition from investment & export based growth to internal consumption based growth, as well as the large size of the economy itself.
I decided to omit this explanation, since I thought it would have been very lengthy & difficult to explain. However, I could have actually cited a new CSIS report, claiming that contrary to usual claims about “exaggerated Chinese stats” & “slower than officially reported growth”, the PRC economy has actually grown faster & transitioned earlier than expected. Furthermore, the research found that the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics has consistently & systematically UNDER-ESTIMATED the PRC’s growth rates since 2008, & continues to under-call growth rates even after upward revisions. Here is the report:
http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOxIJMjZOUo
I am not surprised by what you said, even though I have not gone through your link. One of the things I always find curious from western “dependable chinese sources” is I believe the understatement of “consumer spending”. They always give the impression that consumer spending is too small a fraction of the chinese economy. According the them, it’s almost all lead by “investment”.
However, when I traveled to china, I am shocked at the number of people visiting national parks,simply packed like crazy every where I go. Then I think, er, isn’t travel one of the most obvious “consumer spending”?. Plus the fact that by now, Chinese tourists *everywhere* are spending money like nuts. I’m not talking about buying houses and such stuff, but just buying various consumer goods.
Back in china, it’s the same with restaurants, packed. As such my trust in the so called western “economy experts” has gone down quite a bit.
The Chinese economy must out-perform those of the neo-liberal West because its economy is not dominated by the parasitic financial apparatus, which constitutes more and more of the economies of the failing West. Of course, to throttle the financial blood-suckers would be unacceptably ‘antisemitic’, don’t you know.
Stavros, China’s economy MUST slow as it grows bigger, for purely mathematical reasons. A five trillion economy growing at 10% pa adds 500 billion in a year, and a ten trillion economy produces as much added ‘wealth’ by growing at a ‘mere’ 5%. If China grew at 10% every year its economy would double in size every seven or so years and soon gobble up all the planet’s resources, like bacteria in a petri dish. The whole narrative of ‘China Slowing’ is part negative propaganda (the Yellow Peril revealed as incompetents, after all)but more wishful thinking by Western elites and their propaganda scum scared rigid that the epoch of their lording it over the global untermenschen is ending.
These sorts of pessimistic reports are part of the zionazi psy-war being waged against Russia (and China). As such, they are as much bs as the rest of the toss the Jewish owned/run propaganda ministry vomits out.
A main target of this propaganda is western people, who must be constantly “educated” to the fairy tale that any challenge to ZPC/NWO supremacy is not only blasphemy, in that it challenges the sacred fascist world order, it is also destined to always fail.
Another significant target of this pessimistic propaganda is the 5th column in Russia. It’s ammunition for their subversive gnawing away at Russian society to mold Russia into just another ZPC/NWO colony of subservient slaves.
vot tak, China is the Zionazies’ great nightmare. After centuries of effort their ambitions as ‘Gods Upon the Earth’ have been over-achieved as the various Jewish Lobbies and Fifth Columns have more or less taken over the commanding heights of Western societies. In the USA, UK, Australia, Canada, France and Germany the dominance is almost complete, to all intents and purposes.
The rise of China to global economic hegemony would scuttle this magnificent edifice. What’s worse, an economic collapse in the West, driven by the Jewish dominated financial apparatus, leading to greater and greater mass poverty, will not redound to the benefit of the various parasite castes and tribes. And, in China, where Jews cannot fit in due to shared physiognomy and social customs, as they do in host societies in the West, the traditional Jewish talents for entryism, nepotism and suborning Sabbat Goy stooges, are highly unlikely to reap the usual rewards. Moreover there is no equivalent to the Christian Zionist compradores to Jewish power, and the ‘Holocaust’ religion has less influence. After all the Chinese lost vastly more people in WW2, and realise that there is no hierarchy of human suffering in all the hideous genocides and mass murders that litter human history.
This is why I believe Russia is on the rise, and America is on the decline. Americans can’t stand the short-term pain of cutting government spending and raising interest rates to a market level. Russia, on the other hand, takes the long view.
@Arizona An-Cap
“…takes the long view.”
Am I the only one that thinks this is the sole salient point in the above post?
At what point were Russians cutting gov spending?
For that matter, do you really think China has been successful through not spending?
The analysis only dealt with few key highly-publicized projects to arrive at a very logical conclusion.
I believe more than the individual projects, the intersection of China-led ‘one belt one road’ economic agenda with EEU countries’ infrastructure and industry will bring more sustainable economic progress in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus.
Straight-Bat
Very true,China is only one part of the reforms Russia needs, to remake and expand her economy.Yes,she needs to expand her business dealings throughout the World to diversify away from dependency on the EU.But vastly more important than anything else with her economy she must develop her internal economy and re-industrialize.That, not “World trade” is the only way to really advance Russia’s economy.She must gain control,again, over her own economy.During the days of the Russian Empire,Russia’s economy was much like today’s.She depended heavily on resource exports.And even though her base internal economy was better than today.For most development they depended on outside sources.And so most of the industry that was developed was to serve foreign needs,and profits went abroad to foreigners.That model helped to destroy Russia during WWI.When the exports and imports so needed to finance, and to even fight the War, became impossible .All of that changed during the 1930’s and early 1940’s.When for the first time in her history Russia really attempted nationwide industrialization and economic reformation.And that bore fruit during WWII,when without that industrialization Russia probably wouldn’t have survived.And certainly, wouldn’t have produced the military equipment that allowed her to equal, and then surpass one of the World’s greatest industrial powerhouses,nazi Germany.That industrialization, in the following years kept Russia/USSR from falling victim to the West’s continuing plots to destroy her.Until the combination of Russian traitors,Western plotting,and bad economic decision making,destroyed her economy (its more than likely the first two of the combination had a big part with the third ).After that,the large remnant that remained and became the RF undid almost everything that had saved Russia/USSR during the previous years.And slavishly followed the West’s orders and “advise” that led Russia to death’s door.Until, one man, Putin, was able to recognize the disaster that was “Yeltsin’s Russia”.And was able, to at least, start to save the Russian state itself, from collapse. But that is still a long way from saving “Russia” from collapse,and renewing her.For Putin to go down in Russian history as the new Pozharsky,or Stalin (the economy builder Stalin).He will need to bring the economy back to when Russia’s economy was number 2 in the World.And she stood toe-to-toe with any nation in developing industry.Can he do that? I don’t know.Must he do that,if Russia is to be independent? Beyond question he must.But then, will he do that? That is the question Russia’s future turns on.
Uncle Bob 1 on October 06, 2015 · at 3:55 pm UTC said:
“Can he do that?.”
Does it matter? most of the money probably goes to the rich anyway.
Uncle Bob 1 on October 06, 2015 · at 3:55 pm UTC said:
“Must he do that,if Russia is to be independent? Beyond question he must..”
Independent from who? (Nationalism is, after all, an infantile disease).
Uncle Bob 1 on October 06, 2015 · at 3:55 pm UTC said:
“That is the question Russia’s future turns on.”
Same question as above (who is Russia – an infantile idea?).
If you don’t know “who” are what Russia is you don’t need to come here.The same if you don’t believe in the need for Russia to be independent,why come here.One of the countless pro-Western sites would fit you better.They are overloaded with pro-US and NATO loyalists,you would fit in perfectly.
@ Uncle Bob 1,
Q; The same if you don’t believe in the need for Russia to be independent,why come here
R; Even a 5th generation, multi-role, stealth flanker needs the friction of air particles to become airborne, not only an engine.
Oh, it’s the “Russia’s Record Wealth Disparity” hasbara troll again. Same reply as last time.
Putin and Russia will succeed without the help of The Guardian and yourself. Please waste what little energy you might possess somewhere else. Your hasbara is degrading the blog.
There is a grain of truth there, though. The fact is Russia has not finished ousting its oligarchs. When the disease was life-threatening, Putin had the brains and the nerve to cut out the worst of the cancer, enough to let him take control of the state from the parasites and give him a working country. But he has largely left the disease alone since. Russia is no longer on death’s door, but it remains chronically infected. In the long term, any Russian national project is going to be hamstrung if the remaining parasites are not cleared out.
The Purges Begin – Secret Russian Police Unit SMERCH Nails Corrupt Officials
This time they are serious. Russian security structures create a special unit tasked with a total sweep of regional elites
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/purges-begin-secret-russian-police-unit-smerch-nails-corrupt-officials/ri10124
That is quite interesting.
Generally agreed. I would, though, want to claim that the Soviet production system had some other Achilles’ heels, one self-inflicted, one from the outside. The outside one was the arms race; the proportion of USSR resources and top personnel that went to military development was huge. They were trying to compete militarily with a United States that had a larger population, a lead in industrialization, was far richer, and had not yet really succumbed to the massive corruption built into the US military procurement system. The arms race wasn’t good for the United States either (and the heavy military spending still isn’t), but the USSR had to devote a much larger proportion of their resources to stay in the game. The late Seymour Melman has some excellent books on the subject of the damage massive military spending did to both the US and the USSR.
The self-inflicted one was the top-down style of organization. Now, some planning of any economy is necessary. Even the countries most devoted to “laissez faire” actually plan their economies, and much as the USSR had “black markets”, the United States has a good deal of “black planning”–ways they organize the economy without admitting it, such as the old “military Keynesianism”. But the USSR, while claiming a people’s economy, in fact allowed the people down at the factory level very little latitude, agency, or input, instead dictating from far above. The result was often absurdity, out of touch administrators setting irrelevant goals, workers becoming alienated and enervated.
Now, to be fair, the technology of the day made it hard to do a lot of feedback, horizontal communication and bottom-up decision making at a large scale. Even so, there were places in the USSR where efforts were made, such as Tito’s Yugoslavia (Not perhaps ultimately successful efforts–the Yugoslavian industrial sort-of-co-operatives ultimately still had management running the show, and there were other problems. Still, they tried). More of that kind of experimentation would have been good. Overall, the Soviet system, while it kind of worked, and had strengths the West has studiously avoided noticing (little or no unemployment or homelessness, for eg), IMO showed serious problems with trying to do socialism top-down. In the future, hopefully we will get to see new kinds of socialism that leverage modern communications and computer technology to allow bottom-up planning and decision making over a broad scale, a socialism not just theoretically “for” the people but a protagonistic (as the Bolivarians say) approach that gives real power to the actually existing people.
I agreed with most of your post as well.But I’d like to make a couple of comments on it:
I think the reforms made in Hungary (very little know in the West),should have been introduced in the USSR.They really improved the Hungarian economy.For its size Hungary was the consumer products leader of the “Socialist Bloc” because of those reforms.And also what most in the West don’t realize when thinking about Western and Eastern Europe in that period.Eastern Europe throughout the pre-war period (and for all the 19th century) was very underdeveloped economically.They were in as bad or worse shape than Southern Europe at the time.Europe was not the the same all over.Western Europe was “light years” ahead of the East.
The unbelievably hideous destruction in the East during WW2 (preceded by the destruction in WWI),left those countries even worse off.In many of them health and education standards were abysmal.Before the war many of the middle-class educated professionals were Jewish in those countries.And the nazi slaughters,of Jews and national minded people in those states eliminated most of those elements (coupled with many of the remainder fleeing the war and Communist changeover).
When Martin talks about what the DDR was able to accomplish he isn’t boasting, its fact.While not as spectacular in those other countries (Eastern Germany pre-war was more developed to start with),it was still extremely impressive.Basically,those countries started out as what is known today as “third world” states.And unlike the already more developed Western European nations,they didn’t get a bit of “Marshall Plan” aid.And instead suffered from the start with Western sanctions on their economies.Yet they ended with educated,healthy,socially secure societies.
Certainly they weren’t nearly as wealthy as the West Europeans who benefited from already developed societies.And in many cases with the loot from their colonies in the third world.With economic aid,and without sanctions to retard their economies.But compared to how they started out the advances were enormous.The standard of living was greatly improved from the pre-war period for almost all the population (except the descendants of the pre-war wealthy classes).Anyone reading pre-war travel or history books that cover that area will see what I mean.American,British,and other authors talk a great deal of the dictatorships in almost all those states at the time.Of the absolute poverty and backwardness of the societies back then.Today’s Greek or Ukrainian problems are nothing compared to the life of the peoples in almost all of that region .
So yes,there was a lot that could have been done differently in the economies of the “Socialist Bloc” to improve them.Of that there is little doubt.But at the same time the things done right were very impressive.It wasn’t/isn’t easy to remake whole societies,turn peasant societies into educated modern societies.And all the while making sure to provide,homes,jobs,schools,health care,for the entire population.And protect your nations from an Empire lusting for your destruction all at the same time.
Quite agreed. I’ll need to look into the Hungarian reforms, don’t know anything about them.
But yes, critics of the Soviet system (and Cuba, not co-incidentally) often seem to operate on the assumption that of course if they hadn’t been commies they would all have had lifestyles and prosperity identical to that in the United States or Germany, just like Iraq or Congo or the Dominican Republic do, or just like Russia’s standard of living was the same as Germany’s before 1917 . . . oh wait.
Of course what really annoyed Western elites about the countries behind the “Iron Curtain” was that they weren’t available for exploitation the way Africa or Latin America were; the history of those countries since the fall of the USSR (except Belarus, which didn’t let the carpetbaggers in and kept their industry) gives us a more accurate idea of what would have happened to them.
There is an economic system called PARECON (Participatory Economics), developed by a US economist Michael Albert, that sounds like what you are asking/hoping for. Albert tried to come up with something that would avoid the problems of centrally-planned economies of Eastern Europe. If you are not familiar with it, explore here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participatory_economics
I have a more optimistic view. I think Putin is on the right track, not just on Russian sovereignty, but also the economy. The fact that the sanctions have not triggered a much deeper recession in RF speaks volumes. What cannot kill you will make you stronger, i.e. I think the Russians will come out of the sanctions much stronger!
I will even go further by stating that RF has one of the “best value” for it’s stock market! The only problem is that the oil price + sanctions are causing the russian currency to be dropping. These 2 conditions will not last forever…
Exactly, Bob, and may I add, Russia must create an inclusive, just, egalitarian society, as a complete contrast to and rejection of the viciously unjust, unequal and socially sadistic neo-liberal dystopias of the dying West. Then they can, by acting as a good example, hasten the coming revolt of the vast downtrodden majorities in the West.
Thank you, Mister Unknown
I think, we all know the answer to your question.
Tomorrow, October 7th is the President Putin’s birthday.
This song is a present for him from a Russian singer Timati
My best friend is President Putin
http://ren.tv/novosti/2015-10-06/timati-raskachal-stranu-novoy-pesney-moy-luchshiy-drug-eto-prezident-putin
Russia, meet your son.
We, the whole country, stand behind him. He is our super-hero.
Do you know who is your flagman?
Mr. President is one of us.
We know, if he decides, everything will be just right.
You know who is your flagman.
My best friend is one of us.
Girls are crazy about him, and he is still not married.
My best friend is President Putin.
You know who is your flagman.
“ In the face of this reality, Russia has two choices: instant gratification by acquiescing to the West in the hope of short-term relief, and continuing down the path of ‘business-as-usual’, or partner with China to diversify and modernize its economy. The latter involves far more hard work and risk-taking, but is also a far more viable way to move Russia on a path of genuine sovereignty and stable economic modernization.”
The above is highly reminiscent of what the USSR had to properly assess right after Lenin’s death: Self-reliance and industrialisation, or grovelling before the “glorious, advanced West” — in essence, Stalin(ism) vs, Trotsky(ism). Actually, there shouldn’t be any confusion whatsoever this time around, given the epic Soviet experience. With the rapacious West forever hell-bent on appropriating Russia’s wealth for free, the patriotic line — including unstinting support for other countries struggling for liberation — is the only viable choice. Risky, sure. But acquiescing to Western imperialism, by contrast, isn’t any act of ‘risk-taking’; it’s a total folly indeed which brings instant national suicide as the vile traitors Gorbachev and Yeltsin showed the whole world.
Bottom line: The West is at least as mad and evil today as it was 100 years ago, but after three decades of ever worsening neoliberal rot, it has nothing to show for it either. In Lenin’s time, the Western countries at least were industrial powerhouses. Nowadays, they (correctly) proclaim to be ‘post-industrial’, thriving on other peoples’ ability to produce material necessities as opposed to staging gay parades and colour revolutions.
You know, the whole global community is going to be experiencing financial setbacks in the coming period. The west in particular. It’s going to be difficult everywhere. I think Russia and China will also have difficulty, but have enough foresight and discipline to pull out of the difficulties sooner, and are better positioned than other countries. China has been amassing gold in huge quantities, and may even become a reserve currency, at any rate, the Yuan will do better than most other currencies. Russia too has been amassing gold and has kept tight reign on it’s finances. By forming this alliance, they together can attract other countries to (hopefully_ prevent the empire from totally destroying everyone’s future . Putin and Xi Jinping are making it possible for their countries to have a future to focus on.
Interesting tidbit about gold . . . before Chavez died, one thing he did was have Venezuela’s gold reserves physically brought as actual metal to Venezuela. Nobody’s gonna be “freezing” those assets, nor is Venezuela going to find themselves holding worthless paper when the financial institutions holding their reserves go under in some crisis. There were no flies on that guy.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/world/720740/yuan-overtakes-yen-in-payment-rankings
Yuan overtakes yen in payment rankings 7 Oct 2015 at 07:40 1,212 viewed0 comments NEWSPAPER SECTION: BUSINESS | WRITER: BLOOMBERG AND REUTERS Hong Kong: China’s yuan overtook Japan’s yen…
Hong Kong: China’s yuan overtook Japan’s yen to become the fourth most-used currency for global payments, shrugging off a surprise devaluation to rise to its highest ranking ever and boosting its claim…
If you’re drawing the distinction you seem to be drawing, that’s a rather odd reading of Trotsky that I’ve never seen before. I won’t claim it’s impossible because I don’t know that much about the guy’s policy positions in Russia. But I also don’t feel like buying it without some kind of backup.
Trotsky at his very wittiest:
Leon Trotsky
“On the Future of Hitler’s Armies”
Writings of Leon Trotsky (1939-40)
(NY: Merit Publishers, 1969), p. 113.
“Hitler’s soldiers are German workers and peasants.
. . .
The armies of occupation must live side by side with the conquered peoples; they must observe the impoverishment and despair of the toiling masses; they must observe the latter’s attempts at resistance and protest, at first muffled and then more and more open and bold.
. . .
The German soldiers, that is, the workers and peasants, will in the majority of cases have far more sympathy for the vanquished peoples than for their own ruling caste. The necessity to act at every step in the capacity of ‘pacifiers’ and oppressors will swiftly disintegrate the armies of occupation, infecting them with a revolutionary spirit.”
Why the above predictions were wrong: In World War II, Germans soldiers massacred more civilians than any previous army in history. They never gained a revolutionary attitude and did not even overthrow Hitler. Trotsky is to be congratulated for not living to see his horrible First World delusions come a cropper.
Last but not least: Nazism was mostly modelled on Anglo-American genocidal settlerism. In today’s world, this translates into zionazi neoconservatism. Anybody willing to apply Trotsky’s flattery on the US Army?
Lord O is ‘pivoting’ to China!
OCT 1
link didn’t work. Mod TR
US Moves 30,000 Marines to Counter China, Sending 4 Strategic Weapons to Region
Published on Oct 1, 2015
The relocation of marines is a key part of President Barack Obama’s Asia Rebalancing strategy. China is building a third airstrip in the disputed South China Sea, which is long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft. Beijing’s land reclamation activities are the primary reason for the relocation of U.S. marines. North Korea’s nuclear program is the another reason.
“It’s lonely at the top…”
“What?”
I said, “It’s lonely at the top…”
“I heard you. But look around you, pal. See the entire planet?”
“Erhummm… Yeah.”
“Deal with it.”
– sponsored by ‘Planets Without Borders’
Dear Mister,
Thank you for excellent reasoning and for exploding straw-man arguments.
Personally, I see no way for Russia to progress economically without first controlling her Central Bank– which controls the most basic of all economic determinants, the money supply. I understand from Nikolai Starikov’s free online book that the Russian Central Bank is independent of the government, and in practical fact is controlled by the IMF/Fed system. One result of this is that the money supply is so inadequate that only 25% of Russia’s circulating currency is in rubles. Another is that her base interest rate stands at 11%– an improvement over December’s rate which was 17%. Such interest rates cannot be borne by ordinary businesses, which perhaps explains the current high rate of business bankruptcies. Countries need to have sovereign control over their economies, and this is impossible where the Central Bank is not controlled by the govt. Surely acquiring high tech industries would be more attainable if the more basic problem were first solved.
Thanks again for your article; it certainly seems to be well-reasoned.
Oops, forgot the link. Sorry.
http://lit.md/files/nstarikov/rouble_nationalization-the_way_to_russia%27s_freedom.pdf
Anglo Saxon elites consider Slavs to be untermensch, an inferior race of people.
They will burn the earth to a cinder before they accept Slavs as their cultural, political or moral equals.
If you goes to several big american high-tech companies webpages and checks the amount of jobs offered for locations in China ( where they opened branches for R&D ), you will be amazed by the sheer numbers. I think this shows where the economic growth will be while business relations between China and USA are still way up. I know for a fact that Chinese citizens are still desperate to emigrate in USA. I wonder if they don’t care about geopolitics and don’t read websites like this one to realize that USA and China will potentially clash in future ?
On a different aspect, if Russia doesn’t start a big petrochemical industry, which should consume most of their natural gas and oil for making high-value products, they will always be dependent on germans and others buyers.
How many advanced semiconductors companies has Russia ?
I did some research and discovered about 3 or 4. Some received their technology from west several years ago. Maybe Russia has some secret microelectronics industry that is more advanced, but used only for military. I know for a fact that China tried to create several homegrown semiconductors companies and they kind of failed. Last year, a decision was made to buy several existing companies (most of the being american). The last attempt a few weeks ago to buy Atmel buy the Chinese failed because they offered a price too low. Dialog Semiconductor from Germany will buy them, if this gets approved by a USA commission. This shows that Chinese need to behave nice with the Americans for another while, if they want to grab some more high tech companies. Believe of not, the American companies are still exporting know-how like crazy to China, even when the salaries for similar engineers over there are not that low anymore (not more than 3x lower, but many times only 2x).
Keep an eye on Rusnano investment fund from time to time (Anatoly Chubais, the one who supervised the shock therapy in the 90’s is the boss there). Most of Rusnano collaboration was with companies from the west.