Just as I have predicted in my last piece about the developments in the Ukraine, European politicians and Ukrainian opposition parties have gone into overdrive to attempt yet another color-coded revolution in Kiev. The normally demure and low-key Eurobureaucrats have suddenly found it themselves to castigate Russia with irate statements about “unacceptable Russian interference” while their own diplomats actually went on stage to encourage the (illegal) demonstrations in Kiev. As for the opposition, it used its formidable resources to bring people form all over the Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland to Kiev to organize a mass rally and, just to make sure that enough people would show up, they began the rally with a free rock concert. Finally the united opposition parties have declared that they are creating a “united headquarters of the resistance” which will have as its first task to coordinate a Ukrainian-wide general strike.
Finally, the opposition, lead by Yulia Timoshenko from her jail, is now openly calling for the overthrow of the Yanukovich government and new elections.
Very impressive.
And what about the “pro-Russian” Yanukovich government?
Just as I have predicted, it is already prepared to “zag” following its surprise “zig” of last week. All Yanukovich & Co. have done is to send Prime Minister Azarov to explain the latest change of mind of President Yanukovich on a TV talkshow hosted by a notorious russophobic Jewish anchor “Savik Shuster” (his real name is “Shevelis Shusteris”- he first worked for the CIA-created Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, then for Russian “democratic” media outlets before joining the “Ukrainian” TV following the “Orange Revolution” in Kiev. This true “cosmopolite” also holds Italian and Canadian citizenship, probably along with an Israeli one) where nobody listened to a word he had to say: for each economic figure Azarov mentioned in defense of his position, the nationalists responded with emotional slogans, promises of a bright tomorrow and the usual rabid anti-Russian rhetoric. Still, Azarov explained that he had decided to show up because he hoped that at least on TV they would let him speak (that same day the opposition in the Ukrainian Parliament simply shouted Azarov down thereby successfully preventing him from taking the floor to explain the government’s decision).
Yanukovich himself hinted that all that had happened was a “temporary delay” and that the Ukraine might sign after all, just a “little later”, maybe in Spring.
Next, the government ordered their riot-cops to clear the Maidan square in Kiev at 4AM, which was done with the usual level of wanton violence (on both sides). Azarov then denounced its own cops and announced that a special commission would be set up to investigate the violence and find out who was responsible (who else could it be besides him is unclear).
Finally, Yanukovich officially declared that he was “deeply outraged” by the violence and that all Ukrainians were united by, I kid you not, “our choice of our common European future”.
Absolutely pathetic, if you ask me.
As for the so-called “Russian” folks of Donetsk, they organized an anti-EU/pro-Yanukovich rally were they displayed an immense sea of blue-yellow Ukrainian flags while playing Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy” form is 9th symphony (probably unaware that this was the official Anthem of the EU).
The contrast between two parties to this dispute could hardly be bigger, I think. Let’ compare them:
The Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists
The Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists are mad, really really mad. They feel like just one man suddenly changed his mind, reneged on all his previous promises and suddenly single handedly stopped a process in which they had invested a huge amount of political capital. And they are absolutely correct, this is exactly what happened. Now the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists are exactly in the same predicament: both feel extremely weak and both fear Russia, both sides are financially bankrupt and hope that a political victory will overshadow their economic failure, both sides hate Russia and feel that it is absolutely crucial to deny Russia any possible advantage (real or imaginary) it might gain from a union with the Ukraine. Yes, these are purely negative, hate-filled, feelings of inadequacy mixed with self-delusion about a much hoped for but forever unachievable greatness. But negative feelings, in particular nationalistic ones, can be very powerful, as Hitler has so clearly demonstrated the entire world.
The supposedly “pro-Russian” Eastern Ukrainians
They have no vision, no ideology, no identifiable future goal. All they can offer is a message which, in essence, says “we have no other choice than sell out to the rich Russians rather than to the poor European” or “all we can get from the EU is words, the Russians are offering money”. True. But still extremely uninspiring, to say the least. Worse, this point of view reinforces, at least by implication, the key theses of the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists: that this is a sellout to Russia and that the Russians are blackmailing and interfering whereas, in reality, the blackmail was totally on the EU sides as clearly shown with the demand that Tymoshenko be freed (while Berlusconi in Europe is charged with exactly the same crime, so much for double-standards).
And what about Russia in all that?
I am beginning to fear that this will all explode into a real and very dangerous crisis for Russia. First, I am assuming that the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will eventually prevail, and that Yanukovich will either fully complete his apparent “zag” and reverse his decision, or lose power. One way or another the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will, I think, prevail. There will be more joyful demonstrations, fireworks and celebrations in Kiev, along with lots of self-righteous back-slapping and high-fiving in Brussels, and then the gates of Hell will truly open for the Ukraine. Why?
Well simply because joining one Titanic at the hip with another one will save neither. The EU is sinking and so is the Ukraine. Neither has any real vision of how to stop this disaster and both sides are absolutely dead-set to try to hide their bankruptcy by an increasingly strident and outright nasty political rhetoric. Needless to say, neither empty promises nor nationalistic slogans will feed anybody and the already dying Ukrainian economy will collapse at which point the Russian priority will have to change from supporting it to protecting Russia from the chaos happening just across its 2300km long and mostly completely unprotected border with the Ukraine. What are the risk for Russia?
The real risks for Russia
Being drawn into the inevitable chaos and violence with will flare up all over the Ukraine (including the Crimean Peninsula), stopping or, at least, safely managing a likely flow of refugees seeking physical and economic safety in Russia and protecting the Russian economy from the consequences of the collapse of Ukrainian economy. Russia will have to do all that while keeping its hands off the developing crisis inside the Ukraine as it is absolutely certain that the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will blame Russia for it all. The best thing Russia could do in such a situation would be to leave the Ukrainians to their private slugfest and wait for one side or the other to prevail before trying to very carefully send out a few low-key political “feelers” to see if there is somebody across the border who has finally come to his/her senses and is capable and ready to seriously begin to rebuilt the Ukraine and its inevitable partnership with Russia and the rest of the Eurasian Union. As long as that does not happen Russia should stay out, as much as is possible.
Sarajevo on the Dniepr
Right now, all the signs are that the Ukraine is going down the “Bosnian road” and that things are going to get really ugly. The explosive brew we now see boiling in the Ukraine is exactly the same one which so viciously exploded in Bosnia: local nationalist backed by foreign imperialists who are absolutely determined to ignore any form of common sense, nevermind a negotiated solution, to achieve their ideological goals. To most sensible and rational people my doom and gloom scenario might seem too pessimistic. I would encourage these skeptics to take a look at this well-known Polish joke:
A Pole walking along the road happens to spy a lamp. He picks it up, and as it is covered in rust he gives it quick rub. Out comes a genie. “I’m the genie of the lamp and I can grant you three wishes,” the genie says. “OK,” says the Pole. “I want the Chinese Army to invade Poland.” Odd choice, the genie thinks, but nevertheless he grants the wish, and the Chinese Army comes all the way from China, invades, and goes back home. “Right, second wish. Maybe something more positive,” says the genie. “No,” replies the Pole, “I want the Chinese Army to invade again.” So the Chinese come all the way from China, lay waste to more of Poland, and then go home. “Listen,” says the genie. “You have one last wish. I can make Poland the most beautiful and prosperous place on earth.” “If you don’t mind, I want the Chinese army to invade one more time.” So the Chinese army comes again, destroys what’s left of Poland, and then goes home for the last time. “I don’t understand,” says the genie. “Why did you want the Chinese army to invade Poland three times?”. “Well,” replies the Pole, “they had to go through Russia six times.”
This is the kind of “humor” a deep-seated inferiority complex combined with a compensatory strident nationalism can produce. Ask anybody who has ever met a Ukrainian nationalist and he will confirm to you – they make the Polish nationalists look outright mild-mannered and sober.
Needless to say, when the Ukraine explodes the Eurobureaucrats will look the other way and lock the borders of their respective countries as best they can while the leaders of the Ukrainian nationalists parties will cut and run to the West where they will get well-paid position in academia, various think-tanks and NGOs. As for the people of the Ukraine, they will be left to fight each other against a background of hypocritical outpouring of crocodile-tears from the so-called “international community?
Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’entrate?
I sincerely hope that I am wrong and that some individual or movement will rise up from the current chaos to prevent the Ukraine from collapsing into the “Bosnian scenario” but, unfortunately, I don’t see any sign of that happening. Ukrainian politicians – all of them – are a disgusting sight. Ditto for the EU politicians, by the way. At the very best they are boring, uninspiring if marginally competent. At their habitual worst, they are pathological liars, political prostitutes and delusional imbeciles which are too illiterate and too arrogant to ever see the writing on the wall, even when it is written in big, thick, block characters.
Full disclosure here: I am by training, by trade and by character a pessimist (have you ever met an optimistic military analyst?). For example, ever since I published my very first post on this blog I have been predicting a US/Israeli attack on Iran, and that still has not happened (worse, I still think that sooner or later the Israelis and their Neocon sayanim colleague will provoke such a US attack, if need be by a false flag operation). So I have been wrong, very wrong, in the past and I fervently hope that I am wrong again. Alas, I see no facts or arguments even indirectly suggesting that there is another, hopefully better, scenario for the Ukraine in the future.
Does anybody else see any?
The Saker
I agree with your assessment on Ukraine, things do not look good for general population, to indoctrinated & ignorant (westernized – hedonistic collective). IMO this is the fate for any country/population that has been westernized (no balance between materialism & spiritualism – not religion). EU agreement means get ready to be “RAPED” (IMF loans, neo-libralism & austerity). Their fate will be similar to the “PIGS” countries. I understand their hatred towards the USSR but they should educate themselves. The EU is it’s sister, per se.
“I am by training, by trade and by character a pessimist (have you ever met an optimistic military analyst?).”
IMO you are a REALIST.
“I have been predicting a US/Israeli attack on Iran”
Overt financial attacks (sanctions). Covert assassinations & bombings by ZOG agents/proxies. IMO a war on Syria is a war on Iran. Military invasion on Iran would have already occurred if Syria would have fell as planned “Arab (MB) Spring”.
Patrick
@I am a pessimist…
Murphy’s Law has a universal application. But it can be mitigated by the Positive Power of Negative Thinking. Imagining the worst-case scenario, the defensive pessimists motivate themselves to prepare more and try harder.
The Crepuscular Powers won’t renounce ever to their plan to extinguish the light of the Orient. They hate the light and love darkness, because the light would expose their misdeeds.
More practically, the control of Ukraine is imperative for the control of Russia. This was the thesis formulated by Sir Halford Mackinder, the creator of Geopolitics, in 1904. “Who rules Central and Eastern Europe commands the Heartland. Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island. Who rules the World-Island commands the World”. The Heartland is short for Ukraine, Western Russia, Mitteleuropa, World-Island is Eurasia. This was the theory that inspired the Second and Third Reichs “Drang nach Osten”.
What does say now the “renowned geostrategist (i.e. geopolitician) Zbignew Brzezinski”? Summing up: “Should Russia reunite with Ukraine, it will inevitably became a mighty Eurasian power. If Ukraine is totally integrated in Europe, this will put an end to Russia’s geopolitical attack on the West…IT IS NOT THE FREE TRADE ZONE BENEFITS AND THE WELFARE OF ITS CITIZENS THAT MAY BE NAMED AMONG THE MAJOR GOALS FOR UKRAINE’S ASSOCIATION WITH THE EU, BUT THE GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS, CONNECTED TO WEAKENING RUSSIA”. Very clear and straightforward. What is amusing is the denial of the “West” that this is the real motive and denouncing the “Russian paranoia”. But this paranoia is exactly the power of negative thinking which made all western interlopers to flee with tails between legs. Among them the ancestors of the “renowned geostrategist” exactly 400 years ago (with a repeat 200 years ago).
Cheers,
WizOz
I will make evil seem fair seeming to them (15:39)
The power of propaganda
mindfriedo
I find it very hard to believe that Russia wouldn´t have a plan for such a development now unfolding. 20 years of experience of CIA/Geörgy Schwartz colour-coded revolutions, from Belgrade and the Otpor, Srđja Popović cult and onwards, and having rolled almost all of them back (Georgia pending, Moldova)to regimes much less or not at all hostile to Russia.
Team €USSR/Zionazis seemed to have a plan as you suggested but wasn´t prepared to unleash it until the elections, probably in the original CC-Revolution-mode with the “opposition” screaming “foul” even before it had begun, now they act desperate and premature, whereas Russia stands calm. I guess we should read something into that…
Mikhas.
I find it very hard to believe that Russia wouldn´t have a plan for such a development now unfolding. 20 years of experience of CIA/Geörgy Schwartz colour-coded revolutions, from Belgrade and the Otpor, Srđja Popović cult and onwards, and having rolled almost all of them back (Georgia pending, Moldova)to regimes much less or not at all hostile to Russia.
Team €USSR/Zionazis seemed to have a plan as you suggested but wasn´t prepared to unleash it until the elections, probably in the original CC-Revolution-mode with the “opposition” screaming “foul” even before it had begun, now they act desperate and premature, whereas Russia stands calm. I guess we should read something into that…
Mikhas.
“I am by training, by trade and by character a pessimist (have you ever met an optimistic military analyst?).”
If you’re an optimist it means you haven’t been paying attention.
There was also Putin’s statement which was as clear and straightforward as a diplomatic talk can be:
http://www.egaliteetreconciliation.fr/Vladimir-Poutine-protege-le-marche-russe-face-a-l-offensive-liberale-de-Bruxelles-21650.html
I was wondering what the likudniks, wahhabists, neocons and imperialists would do to makes Russia pays for what it did recently: avoiding the WWIII they all want.
@EVERYBODY: Check out these “democratic” “ladies” who, while urinating on a photo of Yanukovich, scream “the Ukraine into Europe and (fuck) Yanukovich in his ass”:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=526_1385897370
Curiously, these “Ukrainian” ladies scream their slogan in pure Russian…
Footage in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Paris.
The Saker
Hi Saker,
I don’t watch much (or any) TV, but online on all the MSM main sites, I don’t see Ukraine mentioned at all. That’s right, NYT WaPo, LAT, CNN, Yahoo! News, FOX…none of them even mention Ukraine. None of the breathless coverage freedom loving protesters confronting iron fist of the police state. No cute color flags. No embedded journalist singing the praises of the revolutionaries. European media is paying more attention, but still nothing like what I would expect of a new Orange revolution.
Maybe all that will come later, but so far nothing at all, and timing is critical for these things. The embers could be put out early on and then it’s too late.
I don’t know the significance of this. Perhaps the public is worn out with coverage of protests and no longer pays any attention.
Whatever the reason, coverage has been such a key component of color revolutions that it’s hard to imagine how they can pull one off without it.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/opinion/frum-ukraine-russia/
Wit Luv
#america
@Lysander: howfi my friend, long time no see :-) how have you been?
To “answer” your question: I have on idea. I don’t even have a TV and when I leave the house I often carry a “TV be gone” device to remotely shut down any idiot box I might come across.
I do know that the BBC is covering the events in Kiev, as does the Russian TV. There are A LOT of cute color flags in the center of Kiev and lots of foreigners (Poland and the Baltics mainly) but why none of that makes it to Western idiot screen I really dunno. Maybe the US is not as invested in all this as EU countries? Is there some other really important stuff happening? Is one of the Kardashians divorcing or getting married maybe? Did Michelle Obama get a new dog?
(quick look at cnn.com)
Yeah, just looked at cnn.com – nothing but the usual static crap.
Could it be that too many TV watchers don’t know where the Ukraine is? Or what it is?
Then, finally, the riots in Bangkok are “better” (more violence, more determined crowds), at least so far.
Honestly – I have no idea :-(
Cheers and kind regards,
The Saker
Well at the risk of sounding naïve let’s be optimistic. Maybe the Obama administration has made a strategic decision to make nice with Russia at least for now because they have bigger fish to fry and/or need Russian cooperation on other matters.
@Lysander,Saker
One possible answer is that the whole kerfuffle in Ukraine is not (directly) the doing of US.
The opening of the “Menorah Center”, the “World ‘s Largest Jewish Center” in Dnepropetrovsk last October must be an eye-opener. Its “main mission is the facilitation of revival of the Jewish society in Dnepropetrovsk, UKRAINE AND CIS, as well as enhancement of the development of tolerance in the relationships of different nationalities” (meaning adoption of laws banning hate-speech, antisemitism, discrimination, etc). It includes, of course, the largest “Jewish Memory and Holocaust in Ukraine” Museum in the post-Soviet era. Does that have anything to do with the return of 100.000 former Soviet Jews from Israel? (like the return to Romania where they reclaimed properties and reoccupied positions in business. This is the preserve of Soros. The push to adopt EU legislation in regards to anti-semitism, Holocaust denial suggest that a further influx of “returning” Israelis is in the pipe-line.
Of course, this is the worst case scenario and I am a pessimist myself. But have a look at the Menorah center in Dnepropetrovsk and see that there are little resons for optimism.
WizOz
Amazing piece Saker, except your criticism of the “Eastern Ukrainians” (de facto Russians)
indeed they are disorganised (but they are many, around 20 million)and they have been under constant attack for 22 years, yet they are resisting “ukrainization”.
That’s why I disagree with you, the ultimate goal of Russia should be the reincorporation of South-Eastern Ukraine into Russia (along the “Subtel Line” Линия Субтельного”). Nothing less, they are just as Russian, they were unlucky to be on the wrong side of the border in 91.
Russia can’t abandon 20 million of its children to this hideous oligarchic regime in Kiev.
Recently I met a splendid young “ukrainian” girl from Nikovlaev (her parents are economic migrants). And when people were asking here (in French) Tu viens d’où? (Where are you from?) She spontaneously answered: Je suis russe (I’m a russian) then only corrected ukrainienne.
I repeat Russia must do everything to reincorporate these territories, I agree that Kiev is probably lost, too infected with Svidomism, but that’s ok.
Thank you again for your superb analysis.
Regards,
My prediction……..
Nothing of consequence will happen in a cold Ukrainian winter. Some shouting, some screaming, a great deal of posturing on all sides and as the joke goes, “a search for the guilty, then punishment of the innocent and then praise for the non participants”.
The tide in the political affairs in this area (EU versus Russia) is starting to reach a new plateau. And it is in Russia’s favor. Russia will do its best to firewall the clusterf*ck by the Ukrainian leadership. And they will be largely successful.
As I see it, The EU is unfocused and has far bigger problems coming up shortly. This was and is a propaganda exercise for them. The Russians are focused and will stand back. The Ukrainians will stew and muddle through will be the result.
Within a few weeks they will all be thinking who will win the hockey trophy at Sochi.
There’s a bigger game afoot (some kind of financial EVENT) and seeing how that unfolds will point the longer term direction.
Russia abandoning Ukraine would be like the USA abandoning California. The important connections are too important. I’m surprised anybody with a brain would even suggest Ukraine or Russia shoot itself in the foot that way.
вот так
Saker, another great and informative post. I agree that this is potentially a truly dangerous situation, both for Ukraine and Russia but also for the wider world. Much depends on the wisdom of Russia’s response to events.
I do think, however, that the extreme violence shown by many of the demonstrators will have been very off-putting to many Ukrainians. Watching RT’s coverage from the UK, it was pretty disturbing to see the huge lumps of paving stones being lobbed at the riot police, the young guy trying to lasso them with a vicious looking chain and the blows being rained down on helmets from lengths of metal pipe. So I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail. But, there seems no doubt that the intention of those behind all of this is to bring down the current government.
In the western media, of course, all of this is being interpreted through a cold-war prism – everything is good as long as Russia is seen to suffer a defeat. in fact, being an adherent of a neo-Nazi party is OK as long as Russia loses.
Hi,
like the other write-ups, this piece also is a insightful penetrating one.
Would like to suggest that you need to bring the ‘past 400 years’ of socio-political state of affairs of the east-European region inhabited by the west (like Poles) and east (like Russian, Ukrainians) Slavic peoples – that thread will add value to your analysis. (your earlier piece on Russia & Islam is an excellent example of analysis with a historical background, that helps reader to tie-up the present with the past).
It seems, the role played by Polish aristocracy, thousand years back to get associated with ‘roman catholic’ church, and subsequently for a long time rule over the west Belorussia and west Ruthenia (current Ukraine) by the Poland-Lithuanian state (and for sometime Austro-Hungarian state as well) introduced a never-to-die spirit of imitating the ‘western civilisation’ (represented by Germanic peoples including Germans/French/Anglo etc. etc.) within the upper class of the Ukraine (and Belorussia?).
The fact that Kievan Rus is the ‘core’ of east Slavic Orthodox society and political entity for past eleven hundred years(later rivalled by Moskovi Rus), PROBABLY COULDN’T ERASE THAT ROMANTIC YEARNING AMONG THE WEST UKRAINIAN ARISTOCRACY TO FOLLOW WESTERN (CHRISTIAN) CIVILISATION.
Apart from this historical issue, the current issue also include the ‘necessity’ of the current Ukrainian elites to get tied up with the western ‘capital’ for grabbing more wealth – but, only the ‘big bosses’ among the politician-cum-businessman-cum-bureaucrat will be finally able to do that … rest will be big losers. (the global capitalist world order can’t offer any more growth avenue – with the ‘core’ country like USA+ West Europe+ Japan stagnating, ‘peripheral’ like Ukraine can hardly ‘shine’).
Finally, the population, in general, will go through extreme suffering, they can’t expect Russia to clean up the mess which is created within their society. In today’s complex economic situation, for Russia it may matter very little that, the cradle of east Slavic society and culture is Kiev !
In the Netherlands, from the view of most ordinary folks, there is great ambivalence: of course they don’t want to see Ukraine fall into the hands of ‘dictator’ Putin.
But everyone is completely amazed at the demonstrators waving EU flags. The EU is hated here! Most people here believe EU membership for Ukraine brings great and immediate financial benefit to them, or think they are fools.
Absolutely no one has heard about the EU NATO connection.
Even some old, long retired military guys I know, can understand Russia will NEVER allow NATO bases in Ukraine.
Don’t allow this cancer!
When the US army ‘friends’ enter your country, they will NEVER leave!
The events in Ukraine show how nasty the EU really is. This is a huge defeat for Brussels.
Fernando
May I ask where is Ukrainian KGB, what id does and what is it up to?
The Saker, d’you got any clue?
BTW. The longer the Ukraine exists, as it is now, the more Ukrainian citizens will start to think in terms of Ukraine State sooner or later and they will start to identify themselves with new sovereign.
New generation will know nothing of the past and will be attached to current statehood (brainwashed by nationalistic propaganda).
Russia knows it but she does nothing to stop it. Do they really think they will be able to incorporate the nationalistic structures of Ukraine to sort of alliance with Russia in near and further future with the nationalistic scum ruling the Ukrainian state?
Regards
You haven’t commented on the eye-ran deal? Not sure what to make of it?
@Anon 13:18&16:51
I think that it is pretty clear that the Russians would never permit NATO anywhere close to them. They said that very clearly and I think that they would take stronger measures if they try. Putin, from Armenia, said that the “protesters were very well prepared and trained militant groups”, who want to destabilize the country. It sounds like a warning. For sure they know who is behind. I think that appropriate measures are in place and “Europe” knows it. Their foaming at the mouth is a sign of their impotence.
WizOz
@opinion frum…
Probably it is not lost upon you that all the rabid anti-Russian commentaries are made by…Frums? When there is not Ben Judah!
WizOz
Russia and Putin are on the rise. Europe needs Russia more than it knows. So does Obama. Putin will dictate events in Ukraine. Regardless of what color crayon the euros smear ukraine with.
@Everybody:
Sorry for the slow reply, a stomach flu has gave me a few bad days and left me with little energy :-(
I will try now to reply to most of your comments:
Historical context: yes, it is important but I simply did not have the time and space to analyse the full history of the Ukraine (the piece on Russia and Islam ended up having SEVEN installments, and even there I miss out on quite a lot). But yes, you are absolutely correct, there is today in Ukraine a class which I would not call “aristrocracy” but “obrazovanshchina” to use Solzhenitsyn’s term (in English I would probably translated as “political pseudo-intelligentia”) which sees its future in the nostalgia for its past. It is composed primarily of the usual assortment of western russophobic forces: Papists, Poles, Fascists, Jews, Masons, etc. all of them with wealthy Anglo patrons, of course.
Holland: read this, it says it all http://rt.com/op-edge/dutch-credit-rating-downgraded-635/
Ukrainian KGB: still exists, its changed its name to SBU for “Sluzhba Bezpeki Ukraini” (Служба Безпеки України). They even have a website: http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/en/index . Its probably a pale copy of the former KGB of the Ukraine and, considering the folks in power, its probably a big fat joke.
Iran deal: I will write something about that soon.
Cheers everybody!
The Saker
One EU official was informative with the remark that it was crucial that the Ukraine is in the ” european sphere of influence”.
Regarding the economy, I do not think that the EU economy, on average, is different from the world economy which is based on growth and debt. The GDP indicator does not contain debt and so a country can claim great growth while going bankrupt.
Recently I tried, unsuccessfully, to convince a Ukrainian nationalist that if they join the EU and NATO the cash from the US would flow to the Ukrainian military which would then be more loyal to the US than to the Ukraine and that only the top layer of Ukrainians would benefit from the new situation
It seems the prince of darkness, Bandar, has been not so secretly visiting Israel and has had a recent visit in Russia. Hopefully you have some insights about these visits in your next article as well…
Your blog is a really valuable addition to my bookmarks!
You provide a very real vision of Ukraine. There is not good and bad people , just different shades of gray. EU meddling in the internal affairs of Ukraine is worse than in African countries (although some of these are invaded).
I’m not quite sure what for Russia is best to wait and see what happens. Whatever she does will be guilty for all Western media and provoke pro-government manifestations (as to the contrary does the EU) would be ok because the outside world would see internal chaos, while that the Western media now give the vision of a people struggling against a corrupt government.
Left Nationalist free movements is dangerous because they do not act with the head but with feelings of hatred and frustration and every year that they teach that hatred in Ukrainian schools, is a years that there are more enemies of Russia. In Spain we know that from experience.
I read your piece yesterday. Today, I came across this piece
Seemingly the Ukraine situation is not as urgent as your take. I wonder what your reaction to this news of Israeli rapproachment with Putin is.
Another thoughtful article on Ukraine
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/12/05/the-next-boogeymen/
Yes, I can imagine a better looking scenario.
The chinese army invading 3 times Ukraine but coming the other way round: through the United States.
@Peter said…
– “I came across this piece”
I read it.
It looks like the USA was a political proxy force for the Jews and only for them, the true Masters of the World, who intelligently pull the US strings and “gently” pushing Russians whenever they want and benefiting on all fronts at will.
Interesting…
@Anonymous Yeah,first, one must take into consideration the source of the article. as Safir, a left oriented perspective, which I most always find essential to rounding out my opinion vis a vis ME info. Then the author, in this case an Israeli. hmmmm
so then we are judging over all veracity. as safir I respect so we proceed…. right?
well anyway, Saker will fill out the Russian perpsective eventually when he gets back on his feet.
My call is, with regard to Ukraine, this article flies in the face of everything else. Why?
Anglos dominating events in Ukraine to undermine Russian influence. Savy Israeli’s realise Russian long term picture is better then Anglo long term picture and consequently begin to switch teams?
Well we’ll see what Saker says. Hopefully.
Russia: Other Points of View as always have good articles suggesting Ukraine stalling on the EU deal is due to trying to extort more favourable financial incentives.
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/
***Well, maybe 20 years ago, when the EU had a future and Russia did not, Kiev’s choice would have been easy. But that’s not the way it looks today. I invite the reader to consider the figures given by Mark Adomanis (who adheres to the curious practice of discussing such issues with facts rather than assuming the answers). The EU’s GDP/capita has been flat for a decade and its unemployment rate is getting worse. Russia, during the same time, is getting steadily better in both respects (yes, from a lower base than the EU but a higher one than Ukraine. Which is what is relevant in the circumstances). The economic part of the choice is by no means so obvious. The values part of the choice is not so obvious either to a country not enamoured with the latest European human rights diktats.***
the above excerpt Jack confirms my visceral suspicions that Russian long term picture is better then Anglo/western long term picture… thanks!
back in the 1970’s I took a course titled, Geography of the Soviet Realm. I walked away from this course realising Soviet “natural resources” would play a significant role in the future. That visceral suspicion is becoming obvious.
This post was how I first came upon your site and writing. At the time I thought that what yu wrote made a lt of sense, it fitted with my understanding of the situation.
At that time I had not read the terms of the EU association agreement but I understood that it was not good for Ukraine based upon what I did know. Yanukovych was correct to seek, at the least, a delay. The junta discovered the same thing when they read the association agreement and understood the terms but by then it was too late.
What is happening now was decided in November 2013.All that remains is details.
Just a thought, but perhaps you might consider a link to podcasts with Stephen F. Cohen and John Batchelor.
http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcasts/tues-33115-hr-2-jbs-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-professor-emeritus-author-soviet-fates
L.