Sadly, Pepe Escobar is writing a lot of nonsense these days, parroting pretty much whatever the USraelian Empire wants everybody to hear. Still, he is a good reporter and that makes him keep a careful eye on what is going on. In a recent article for the Asia Times, Pepe reported something quite interesting:
“Here’s the upgraded voice of the Tehran street, where the new top rallying cry is “Seyyed Ali Pinochet, Chile Iran nemishe” (Seyyed Ali Pinochet, Iran won’t be like Chile). A seven-point list of demands has been Twittered and passed hand-to-hand (here in its original Twitter English version) since Tuesday afternoon.
1. Remove Khamenei from supreme leader because he doesn’t qualify as a fair supreme leader.
2. Remove [President Mahmud] Ahmadinejad from president because he took it forcefully and unlawfully.
3. Put [Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali] Montazeri as supreme leader until a review group for the ghanooneh asasi [constitution] is set up.
4. Recognize [losing presidential candidate Mir Hossein] Mousavi as the official president.
5. A government by Mousavi and start a reform of the constitution
6. Free all political prisoners without any ifs and buts, right away.
7. Call off any secret organization such as gasht ershad [morality police].”
Some agenda, no?! Especially for a *Presidential* election (which, in Iran, is mostly about representation and not about real power).
How did we go from “fixing election irregularities” to “replacing the Supreme Leader” and “changing the Constitution“?! Or was that the intention all along?!?!
Pepe is wrong, that is sure, conned as he is by a mix of carefully orchestrated propaganda and by his own ideological blindness, but he is not dishonest and we can be sure that this “ultimatum” is really being circulated on Twitter and elsewhere.
So now, hopefully, nobody will doubt the real nature of what is being attempted in Iran. Let me spell it out for you in plain, simple words:
- The Gucci Revolutionaries lead by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani are trying to overthrow the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
- They are using the elections for a largely symbolic post of President as a *lever* to trigger a crisis which give them the control of the most powerful post in Iran, the one of Supreme Leader
- The Presidential election gave the Guccis a fantastic opportunity to achieve “regime change”: either their puppet candidate Mousavi wins, and they can use his position to further their agenda, or he looses and they can then holler about the election being stolen (the latter option is made easy by the fact that in a large country like Iran some irregularities will always occur).
- Rafsanjani’s Gucci Revolutionaries are probably infiltrated by the USraelien intelligence services on the low to middle level, but their top leaders are not so much “agents of the CIA” as in a situation of objective community of interest with the Washington and Jerusalem.
- Given the fact that the opposition cannot come up with any real evidence of major irregularities in the elections, and given the fact that they have no other legal recourse, they have only two possible card left to play:
a) to get the Assembly of Expert to dismiss Ayatollah Khamenei (highly unlikely)
b) trigger a bloodbath and blame it on the government
The government is now in a very difficult situation. It probably has the names of all the top leaders of the “Gucci Opposition” and it could easily have them arrested in a couple of hours. But the government probably does not have the means to arrest all the mid-level ringleaders, i.e. precisely those who are most likely to be manipulated by the CIA, Mossad & Co. Thus simply arresting the top Guccis would do nothing to prevent a bloodbath.
Hoping to peacefully defuse the time bomb which has been set by Rafsanjani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will lead the Friday prayers tomorrow at the University of Tehran and try to appeal to the hundreds of thousands “useful idiots” whom the “Guccis” have promised the “pot of gold” at the “foot of the rainbow” and try to convince them that they have to accept the rules of the Iranian democracy and not yield to any calls for violence.
There is another option which the government might consider: if incontrovertible evidence could be made public showing that Rafsanjani and his Guccis are the real puppet masters of Mousavi that would take a lot of wind out of the oppositions sails.
When the local “Guccis” in Venezuela attempted to overthrow Hugo Chavez (and almost succeeded) the only thing which stood between them and success was the popular reaction in defense of the Constitution and the rule of law. Fundamentally, the people of Venezuela stood by and protected their institutions. Now, it is the Iranian people themselves which need to do the same thing.
What is now at stake goes way beyond Musavi versus Ahmadinejad or even Rafsanjani versus Khamenei. What is taking place now is nothing short of an attempt to achieve “regime change” in the deepest, most fundamental meaning of this word.
It is not Ahmadinejad who stole the election, but Rafsanjani and his Guccis who, acting with the full and active support of the USraelian Empire, are trying to overthrow the Constitution and Institutions of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Only the Iranian people can stop them now. If they fail to take a firm stance in defense of their country, Rafsanjani “The Shark” will seize power and take away everything they fought for since the Islamic Revolution 30 years ago.
The Saker
PS: also check out Paul Craig Roberts’ latest excellent article “Iran Faces Greater Risks Than It Knows” (thanks AA for the pointer!) and M K Bhadrakumar latest piece in the Asia Times Beijing cautions US over Iran.
La CIA et le laboratoire iranien
http://www.voltairenet.org/article160639.html
SEE TOO
Cyberwar guide for Iran elections
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/06/16/cyberwar-guide-for-i.html
Interesting piece, Saker. But the problem still remains, how can the Iranian government restore legitimacy in the eyes of the world. There is no way to prove to everyone’s satisfaction that there was no Fraud…except via new elections.
I think offering elections will suck the wind out of the demonstrations. They will not be able to ignore that. If this is a foreign color revolution of some sort, it will collapse.
Alternatively, let us consider for the sake of argument the possibility Musavi truly won. In such case, they have to put this drama behind them quickly.
If elections are not offered, then the government has to show by other means that it enjoys popular support, meaning they have to constantly have counter demonstrations in support of AN. After a while, fatigue will likely set in upon the less popular side.
Under no circumstance should they sick the army on the demonstrators. That risks spiraling out of control with the military refusing to fire on civilians.
On FRiday prayers, Khamenei needs to explain exactly what happened with the voting and why fraud is unlikely. He needs to offer compromise with the opposition, hinting at new elections. And he should stress whatever info he has on Musavi Rafsanjani indicating foreign involvement.
He has to avoid threats and taunts.
Again, the government’s main goal is to restore legitimacy. And they need to move swiftly and dramatically to do it. They can’t waste anymore time.
Beijing cautions US over Iran
By M K Bhadrakumar
@Lysander: I am not so sure that giving in to the Guccis and their demonstrations is the correct way to handle this. First, that would empower them even further as it would, no doubt, been seen as a sign of failure (that is, at least, how the Ziomedia would portray this). Second, they could just repeat the very same exercise and scream that the 2nd one was a rigged as the first one.
Frankly, I do not believe that a compromise is possible. I have information that Mousavi has rejected Khamenei’s invitation to attend the prayers on Friday, and that leads me to think that things have gone beyond a point of no return.
Sad as this may be, I see simply no other solution any more as for the government and the people of Iran to re-take control of their streets.
As for Rafsanjani, he should be tried for what is clearly and attempt to illegally seize power and subvert the Iranian constitution.
Do you believe that compromise is still possible?
Forcibly retaking the streets is the worst thing the government can do. Obviously they need to act against vandals and hooligans, but under no circumstance should they try to violently break up peaceful demonstrations. If Musavi refuses compromise, and a new election is out of the question, then the best thing is for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to stage counter demonstrations and state their case in public over and over again. Unless violence fuels a sense of martyrdom, eventually the demonstrations will peter out. Then Musavi may be willing to compromise.
As I recall, that is how Hugo Chavez thwarted demos against him.
Second, I’m not yet convinced that Musavi is going to radically change Iran’s foreign policy should he become president. For one, the demonstrators like the empire no more than we do. They are not fans of Zionism and they are proponents of the nuclear program. The Israelis know this. That is why the Mossad chief said;
“The reality in Iran is not going to change because of the elections. The world and we already know Ahmadinejad. If the reformist candidate Mousavi had won, Israel would have had a more serious problem because it would need to explain to the world the danger of the Iranian threat, since Mousavi is perceived internationally arena as a moderate element…It is important to remember that he is the one who began Iran’s nuclear program when he was prime minister.”
I don’t think Musavi is a puppet of the west. Furthermore, even if he seeks reconciliation, he will find that if the Empire can’t control you, it does not trust you.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not rooting for Musavi (or anyone for that matter) But I am saying that the empire is not about to take over Iran no matter who wins.
@Lysander: Don’t get me wrong. I’m not rooting for Musavi (or anyone for that matter) But I am saying that the empire is not about to take over Iran no matter who wins.
I understand where you are coming from, but I do not share your optimism. Here is why:
1) Yes, having Mousavi replace Ahmadinajad would not result in a fundamental shift in Iran’s policy. But having Rafsanjani place a puppet like Montazeri in the position of Khamenei definitely would. By now, we are WAY beyond the Mousavi vs. Ahmadinejad issue.
2) The demonstrators might or might not like the Empire, though I note that their slogans are often written in English, but I bet you that there are enough Imperial agents in their ranks to steer them wherever the Empire wants.
3) Street demonstrations are dangerous not only because they can result in violence, but because these street riots are fundamentally rejecting the *rule of law* and the Institutions for the Iranian Constitution. Replacing the rule of law by the rule of the mob is, I think, a guarantee of disaster.
4) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is called the Supreme Ruler because the Iranian Constitution places him in that position (though technically, he is called “the ruler” only and the honorific “supreme” is added only by convention). If Khamenei says as he did today that demonstrations must stop and complaints must be handled by legal means anyone demonstrating after that is, in fact, subverting the authority of the Rule of the Jurists; in the West something like that would be called “high treason”.
Iran is not France or Canada, and simply rejecting an invitation from the Supreme Ruler to come to the Friday prayers is highly provocative and rude. That tells me that Rafsanjani & the Guccis are hell-bent on a confrontation. And history shows, I think, that it takes two to tango. If one party is hell-bent on confrontation and sees it all as a zero-sum game, then there is no point in trying to avoid confronting it. The only real choice left is in the choice of location, time and method.
Consider also that by now the Ziomedia had already established that Iran is ruled by the “regime of the Mullah”, supported by “corrupt Revolutionary Guards” and “Basij thugs”. Just check how often these pre-cooked expressions are used. Now that “illegitimate election” and “Tehran spring” are added to the mix, its not like anyone still cheering for Rafsanjani’s puppet candidate will change his/her mind.
No matter what the government does, it will get 100% of the blame and self-righteous outrage of the doubleplusgoodthinking useful idiots in Iran and beyond.
Khamenei tried all he can to reason with the opposition, but they just escalate. I say that he will soon run out of option. Then, re-taking the streets and restoring the rule of law will be his last option. After all, he owes that to the people of Iran.
Does this make sense or do you still harbor hopes for a non violent resolution?
Read Justin Raimondo’s article in antiwar.com
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/06/18/irans-green-revolution/
He states that therei s a significant difference between the Gucci’s and Ahmadinejad camps.
The article’s first half is quite excellent but the second half disintegrates into what I perceieved as pro Gucci and anti Ahmadinejad, but that was just my take.
Raimondo is looking alot like Pepe Escobar, as are many other so-called alternate source journalists.
wow
read this neo liberal snake oil
duck and cover , here comes the elite left with their defense of the Gucci Revolution
http://www.counterpunch.com/giordano06192009.html
Maybe some of you already knew this link: http://snardfarker.ning.com/video/kissinger-threatens-regime
If it’s a gaffe, it’s very revealing.
Authoritative analysis by
Prof. James Petras: Iranian Elections: The ‘Stolen Elections’ Hoax
“Where they see religious wars, we see class wars; where they see electoral fraud, we see imperial destabilization.”
“This conspiracy isn’t going to destroy Iran, but it is going to weaken it. The only good that has come out of this is that we have lengthened the list of American commentators who are working for the bad guys, i. e., Zionists and those deadenders in the dying American Empire who work for Zionists. It is interesting that the first thing the elected President of Iran did after his overwhelming win was attend the conference in Russia which put the nails in the Jewish-built coffin of the American Empire. Sometimes revenge is a dish best served hot.”
(above excert is comment by blogger after the Petras article)
http://xymphora.blogspot.com/