Dear friends,
The putatively ‘Chechen’ terrorists have detonated two more bombs in Russia, this time in Dagestan. In think that the trend here is clear – ‘Chechen’ terrorism is on the rise again, striking at strategic Russian targets (such as the Moscow-Petersburg train or the Moscow subway). The curious thing is that this is all happening while in Chechnia proper there is comparatively very little insurgent activity. I would like to offer you a hypothesis, a ‘version of events’, which makes sense to me but for which I have no proof whatsoever. I already mentioned it several times in the comments section, but I would like to submit it to you all for consideration:
The recent upsurge in ‘Chechen’ terrorism might have little or nothing to do with Chechnia. Yes, the executors of these operations are probably ethnic Chechens and they are probably acting under the orders of Doku Umarov, the modestly self-styled ‘First Emir of the Caucasus Emirate”. But so what? How does that explain anything?
Osama bin-Laden was a CIA agent for most of his life (he is probably dead by now) and there is overwhelming evidence that the entire Chechen insurgency was CIA supported via what came to be known as al-Qaeda. It is also quite clear that the British secret services have been working hand in hand with Boris Berezovsky and, therefore, with his Chechen agents, for many years too. So instead of referring to ‘Chechen’ terrorism, would it not make far more sense to speak of US and British terrorism? Are the Chechen insurgents not the Caucasian version of Jundallah – yet another CIA controlled terrorist network and is Doku Umarov not just the local Abdolmalek Rigi?
If this is true, what would explain the sudden surge in ‘Chechen’ terrorism in Russia? I would submit that all of the following:
- Payback for the US/NATO defeat in the 08.08.08 war in Georgia in which Russian forces easily crushed NATO-funded, NATO-trained and NATO-commanded Georgian forces even though the latter achieved strategic and tactical surprise and had the numerical superiority up until the last day of the war.
- The need to put Russian under pressure to yield to US demands over Iran, be it sanctions, the Russian completion of the Bushehr, the sale of S-300 air defense systems and the need to get a UN resolution against Iran.
- Payback for the US defeat in the Ukraine where the end of the color-coded revolution (orange, this time) is a crushing disaster for US geostrategic interests.
- The need to weaken Russian influence in the Caucasus (who would want to follow Saakashvili’s example now?) and in Central Asia by showing that Russia is not nearly as strong as some might have perceived it to be.
- Payback for Russian support (weapons and credits) for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
I think that it is far more likely that this explains the sudden surge of ‘Chechen’ terrorism in Russia than a rather inexplicable, apparently cause-less, truly ‘Chechen’ hypothesis. To repeat, there is no sign whatsoever that the Chechen insurgency has recovered from its close to total defeat in the 2nd Chechen war. All, and I mean all, the reports from Chechnia proper seem to indicate that the security situation is Chechnia is actually very good and that Moscow’s control of the region, via Ramazan Kadyrov’s ‘heavy-handed’ security services, is actually rather good. This is a little reported fact, but the Russian military is not, at the moment, actively involved in Chechnia at all. The security mission is shared by the FSB, the MVD and local police forces.
I might be wrong, of course. We might be seeing the first phases of a real resurgence of Chechen terrorism. I personally don’t trust Kadyrov and his thugs one bit. But right now, there is no explanation for the ‘Chechen terror’ theory at all. Moreover, reports out of Moscow claim that the FSB is looking into contacts which the Chechens had with the Georgians (again!). If the Georgians are involved in any way at all, that would point straight to Langley, at least in my opinion.
Anway – I submit to you this hypothesis and I hope that you will share your views on that we me and the rest of us.
On a personal note: I am taking a week off and, barring some truly major event, I shall not post new pieces here until next Thursday. I will be reading comments though, and I will try to post (very short) replies if needed.
Please feel free to use the comments section as a free for all forum, and post anything you want. On my blog there is no such thing as ‘off-topic’ and you need not worry about that.
Kind regards and many thanks,
The Saker
Enjoy your time off, Saker.
I find your analysis very plausible but I have my doubts that the CIA would pick a fight with Russia now. The US is simply too vulnerable to covert (and overt) retaliation. If Putin or Mevedev believed for an instant the CIA was behind this, they almost certainly would find a way to blow up something valuable in Afghanistan. Probably more than once. They would only speed up arms sales to Iran. There is no way Putin would let this go unanswered.
If they aren’t doing that, then at least they themselves do not believe the CIA is behind it.
It is also possible that the CIA has some generic links to the Chechens and give advice or arms, but had no idea that this particular attack would happen.
Three links that relevant here for anyone to ponder on.
link1
link2
link3
@Lysander: Enjoy your time off, Saker.
Thanks, I think I will. I will be getting on the plane tomorrow afternoon and spend a week with my best friends which I have not seen in a year.
There is no way Putin would let this go unanswered.
Agreed. And we might see that happening in the not to distant future.
@Peter: thanks a lot for these links and for the reference to the aangirfan blog which I did not know about. I wonder who this “anon” guys is. I took a short look (I am packing suitcases) to this blog and it looks very interesting. I will re-visit his/her blog upon my return.
Some of the stuff he writes I know is true (the gas explosion) and some I disagree with (the Kursk), but all in all it looks very interesting.
I think your hypothesis is very plausible. After the Beslan attack in September 2004 and until 2008, there were very few terrorist attacks in Russia, all of them were of small scale, and some didn’t even cause casualties (like the bomb on the Nevski Express train in 2007). But since the second half of 2008, the number of attacks has increased greatly, and became more deadly. I noticed back in 2008 that, when the crisis began, Russia was largely unaffected, until August when the stock markets and foreign investments in Russia began plummeting. So I guess we are seeing a double revenge against Russia. There is no proof of it, but the coincidence is very strong.
So, have a nice resting week. Coincidentally, this weekend me and my wife are going on holidays, also, we’ll visit some of my relatives in Brazil.
@Carlo:until August when the stock markets and foreign investments in Russia began plummeting.
Oh yes, and that was largely overlooked by all too many observers. The Western bankers sure did their utmost to make Russia pay for beating up NATO’s proxy in the Caucasus.
this weekend me and my wife are going on holidays, also, we’ll visit some of my relatives in Brazil
Wonderful! I have the best recollections of my travels to Brazil (mostly Rio) and of the Brazilian people. I wish I could take my family to discover this fantastic country.
Have a safe and fun trip!
It does seem unlikely that the US would attack Russia while they have their military bogged down in at least two major conflicts, one in Iraq and another in Afghanistan not to mention the head to head with Iran.
Surely Iran is a much higher priority for the Empire to crack. It doesn’t need Russia to veto sanctions at the UN and supply Iran with arms possibly including state of the art anti aircraft materiel. Isn’t the US dependent on transit across Russian territory to supply its troops in AFghanistan without which it would be at the mercy of the Khyber Pass
Another link with information of interest.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7109
saker
I was surprised that the Russians had blamed a woman suicide bomber within minutes of the blast , how could they investigate at such a speed ? At least they could have waited a day or two to be taken seriously ?
Fatima,
Often the head of the suicide bomber “flies off” and can be found. In that case it would take minutes to decide whether it was a woman!
Please allow me to use the comments section as a free-for-all.
Here s a great article from Kevin MacDonald about ethnopolitics. It is framed as a review of Norman Podhoretz’s book “Why Are Jews Liberal?”
Remaking the Right Part 2
The Moral Status of the Outsider
This status of being an outsider with deep historical grudges has grave moral implications. As Benjamin Ginsberg notes, the social marginality of Eastern European Jews made them useful instruments for the imposition of Soviet rule over reluctant populations, not only in the first genocidal decades after the Bolshevik Revolution when they acted as Stalin’s “willing executioners,” but also during the post-WWII period in the USSR’s satellite states (Czechoslovakia, Poland, East Germany, Hungary, and Romania). Throughout Eastern Europe after WWII, because Jews were outsiders and dependent upon Soviet power for their positions and even personal safety, they could be trusted to remain loyal to the Soviet Union.
This has been a pattern throughout Jewish history. Jews as outsiders in traditional societies allied themselves with elites — often oppressive alien ruling elites engaged in exploiting the people under their control. In the Commentary symposium, Sarna gives a rather tepid version of this, quoting historian Ben Halpern, “They depended for their lives on the authorities, on the persons and groups who exercised legitimate power.” Quite correct. Jews were protected by the government, but their outsider status also made them more willing to engage in unpopular activities, such as collecting taxes for rapacious elites with no allegiance to the people they ruled.
Why is it a suprise that the US would want to destabilise Russia now that it holds and making contracts exporting Russian oil and gas projects to the EU.
When Obama became president this is exactly what I predicted would happen across the Eursian sphere a major increase in terrorist activity.
The only suprise is that they targeted China first.
And the Afghan surge is to create drug and terrorist transit route and push Islamic fighters into Central Asia
All part of the Grand Chessboard strategy.
@VINEYARDSAKER
You should read Paul Murphys book Wolves of Islam to get the total and real history of Chechen terrorism in Russia there networks and state sponsors.
Excellent section in the book in connection to 9/11.
And it is not just Russia Islamic groups are all connected Chechens, Central Asians, UIghers trained in CIA/MI6/ISI camps in Taliban controlled Afghanistan.
All part of Brzezinski Grand Chessboard straegy.
http://www.takeoverworld.info/grandchessboard.html
@fatima
With Russian raids and intelligence gathering in the Caucasus they probably had some information but not specific intelligence of possible terrorist attacks being preparred in Russia. There is litterally hundreds of terror attacks each year planned against Russia by Chechen jihadists.
100 to 1 Leverage. World’s Largest Fraud Exposed. JP Morgan Chase Caught Manipulating Gold & Silver Market
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/38173
@fatima: lots of cameras in the Moscow subway. could have the entire bombing on video. HTH
The Saker
It is a very unusual action at this point in time.
From a security standpoint, I would interpret it as confirming weakness, or at least sterility, in the enemy camp.
They have still not understood the nature of the CHALLENGE they are facing: Ergo, THEY DO NOT KNOW WHAT TO DO.
Middle East Falcon
“Bortnikov was quoted as saying, “Audio evidence seized from insurgents shows that, together with emissaries of al-Qaeda, they had contacts with representatives of the Georgian secret services.” Georgia, he claims, “participated in the training and transfer of terrorists to the territory of Chechnya.” Moscow also states that Tbilisi is supplying arms in the neighboring region of Dagestan.
There is reliable information (beyond Russian allegations) that after Saakashvili came to power in 2004, Shamil Basaev—the Chechen militant responsible for the Beslan massacre—had a private meeting with Georgia’s interior minister and presumably was convinced that the new president would turn a blind eye to the activities in Pankisi Gorge. After being wounded in Afghanistan, Dokka Umarov, the head of al-Qaeda’s South Caucasian efforts, was treated in a Tbilisi hospital. His former boss, Ruslan Gelayev, who was killed by Russian border guards in 2004 while fleeing into Georgia, was said to be a close friend of Saakashvili. Gelayev and his henchmen were welcomed by the Georgian authorities because of their promise of violence in the Russian-controlled breakaway region of Abkhazia, a territory Saakashvili has all but forfeited after last August’s five-day war with Moscow.”
Misha’s World by Tsotne Bakuria, National Interest online, 11.18.2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMSH_FNgIp0
I know, any war is wretched but seeing that and HEARING what the scum were saying I started to love to hate all m****er Americans. All of them!
The sooner USA collaps and ALL her population die the faster the world will be sound and better.
Przemysław Pawełczyk
P.S. Using my Freedom of Expression rights I say this: The Saker – no more cheap talk about Zionists instead of lousy Jews (plus a few useful Goym idiots), no more petty talks about good or bad Americans. ALL Americans as the breed of the f***g American culture which came streight from the Hell should die. The sooner the better. Hawgh.
Hi,
I think the “revelationary” from
http://www.informationliberation.com/
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=29806
spoke for me here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/bmu2d/saw_the_video_wikileaks_posted_heres_a_measured/c0nkalp
better that I would do.
Regards,
Przemysław Pawełczyk
Oh, I forgot to quote from his next post:
One of my best friends from high school
was a sniper in Afghanistan and he came back and bragged about how many innocent people he killed and how it was just like a video game, he reveled in it just like these cowards. What he did was fucking wrong and we told him that to his face, that’s what a god damn friend does, he knew it was true, he didn’t want to hear it but he knew it was true, everyone knows it’s fucking true.
Regards,
pp
For those who didn’t see the video of American trigger-happy culture here is a hyperlink to working copy. YouTube blocked nearly everything.
http://marucha.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/a-nie-mowilismy/#comment-37769
And do not forget to read comments from
http://www.prisonplanet.com/
Regards
pp
@Przemysław: The Saker – no more cheap talk about Zionists instead of lousy Jews (plus a few useful Goym idiots), no more petty talks about good or bad Americans. ALL Americans as the breed of the f***g American culture which came streight from the Hell should die.
I completely totally and absolutely disagree with the above on the grounds that it is both unintelligent and immoral.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Is the demise of the Western puppet President of Poland a timely reminder that the Russians meant business when Putin vowed revenge?
@anonymous8: I honestly don’t think so. The risks of killing a foreign head of state far far far outweigh any benefits. On essence, that would mean declaring war on NATO. Sure, the guy was a US puppet, but so will any SOB who will replace him. All of Eastern Europe has essentially turned info a US colony and getting rid of one puppet will not change that.
It is EXTREMELY rare that the Russians take the decision to kill somebody. All that talk about Litvinenko and Politkovskaya having been killed by the Russians is nonsense (both were actually killed by their Chechen friends). Medvedev is no JFK, Kaczynski is no Castro and Russia is not the USA (which now officially kills anyone it wants). I really don’t think the Russians had anything to do with this crash.
Saker, you are right, I had just woke when I made that post and a couple of hours later I realised the idea didn’t really hold water however it is true that since the Russians owned up to the Katyn massacre and given that Putin and Medvedev have made noises that amount to an apology there has been a thaw in the relationships between the 2 countries and as I understand it Kaczynski was to accept a honorary degree from a Moscow university and although that in itself isn’t much there were talks of reconcilliations and forgiveness etc.
Surely such moves might have set alarm bells ringing in Washington and that coupled with the fact that Kaczynski was not the perfect NWO recruit due to his catholic views on homosexuality and the refusal to take on the H1N1 vaccine is it not beyond the realms of possibility that some CIA black op took him out along with the defence minister and a whole series of very important government personnel to wipe the slate clean and install a more obedient puppet whilst at the same time bury the hopes of any polski/russia accord?
OK maybe I do read too many conspiracy theories but with the failed orange revolution in Ukraine and the nearly failed Saakhashvili dictatorship in Georgia not to mention the very low opinion poll ratings for Merkel and Sarkozy in Germany and France I feel the Americans are eager to keep hold of anything they have and a Russia friendly leader of Poland might prove a stumbling block to the NWO ambitions.
Just a thought, just cant accept so many high ranking Poles died in this old plane.
Saker, just a ps to my last post,
Could you please tell me the best way to get traffic to my Blogger account blog, I have had it for several weeks and havent seen any visitors (or they havent left any comments).
Also would it make any difference if I chose the option of purchasing my own domain name to the amount of traffic I might get?
I have noticed that one of my posts is partially listed on google or at least the tags are with my url address, are tags the best way?
Thanks in anticipation
@anonymous#9: OK maybe I do read too many conspiracy theorie
Not at all, the same thought immediately crossed my mind too, but then I considered the risks to value ratio and decided that it made no sense. Again, having once actually been the object of a death threat by a KGB agent, I studied this issue rather closely and I can assure you that the KGB/FSB does not resort to murder unless there is a clear case (such as the assassination of Hattab for ex), much less so mass murder.
I can’t say that this latest air carsh brakes my heart – a bunch of dead imperial puppets does not qualify as ‘tragedy’ in my book – but I think this really truly was an accident.
@anonymous#10: Could you please tell me the best way to get traffic to my Blogger account blog
What is your blog and what steps have you already taken to make it more visible?
Cheers!
This comment has been removed by the author.
@greenfinch: first, let me tell you that I am deeply moved, to the bottom of my heart, by your blog. I have a daughter myself, and I can only begin to imagine what you feel. And that blog is an *absolutely beautiful* thing to do. I will gladly help you in any way I can, but it might be better if we did that directly. Please send me your email address at vineyardsaker@gmail.com
The Saker
@greenfinch: I sent you 2 email to your yahoo address but both came back with the following message:
Technical details of permanent failure:
Google tried to deliver your message, but it was rejected by the recipient domain. We recommend contacting the other email provider for further information about the cause of this error. The error that the other server returned was: 554 554 delivery error: dd This user doesn’t have a yahoo.com account [-5] – mta1096.mail.mud.yahoo.com (state 18).
Can you send me another email address? Try gmail – its by far the best email provider out there, and the 2nd is not even close…
cheers!
Has anyone purchased Roger Waters Tickets from the website http://roger-waters-tickets.doitbigtickets.com/