By Aram Mirzaei
With Multiple interventions and multiple offensives, the situation in northern Syria is messy to say the least. There are several frontlines with different parties struggling for the same piece of territory.
Two weeks ago, the Turkish army made an intrusion into the northern Aleppo countryside, in the small ISIL controlled border town of Jarabulus. The so called “Euphrates Shield Operation” offensive was aimed at creating a new Islamist rebel pocket in northern Syria, in addition to the Azaz pocket in the northwestern parts of the Aleppo province. Furthermore, the offensive was not only aimed at expelling the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from the Turkish-Syrian border area, but also to stop the Kurdish-led “Syrian Democratic Forces” from connecting the Afrin Canton with the rest of their territory in northeastern Syria.
When the Kurdish YPG led “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) captured the ISIL stronghold of Manbij last month, speculations arose as to what their next target would be. It would seem that the SDF had set its sights on the imperative border town of Jarabulus, situated north of Manbij in an effort to cut ISIL off from the Turkish border, thus isolating them further. This prospect would also give the SDF control of a second border crossing to Turkey, something which alarmed the Turkish AKP government as they have continuously opposed the formation of a Kurdish federative state on its southern borders. It is noteworthy that Turkey considers the YPG to be terrorists since they have connections to the terrorist designated Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In response to those advances, the Turkish Armed Forces initiated the “Euphrates Shield” offensive, entering Jarabulus with tanks along with the so called “Free Syrian Army” and several Islamist proxy groups, most notably Harakat Noureddin Al Zinki and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham in order to both push back ISIL out of Jarabulus and to deter the SDF from advancing any further north. The Turkish backed Islamist rebels met little to no resistance when they entered and captured Jarabulus and its surrounding villages, whilst Turkish artillery began shelling SDF positions almost immediately in order to pave the way for Islamist militants to advance southwards. They attacked the SDF on several occasions, thus creating a three-way battle between the SDF, Islamist militants and ISIL.
The Turkish incursion also received the backing of US Vice President Joe Biden who warned the SDF to retreat back to their positions east of the Euphrates river, and threatening to withdraw US support to SDF if they did not comply. [1]
Meanwhile, the Turkish-backed Islamist militants in the Azaz pocket in northwestern Aleppo began to move eastwards in an effort to connect the Azaz pocket and the newly established Jarabulus pocket, this prospect became a reality a few days ago when ISIL was fully removed from the Turkish-Syrian border area.
The Russian-Iranian-Syrian reaction to this Turkish incursion has been very silent with only minor expressions of dissatisfaction coming from Damascus and Tehran, while Moscow has been rather silent.
The Iranian media has been rather critical of the Turkish invasion with PressTV notably pointing out that Turkey has invaded Syria and that it still supports and arms Takfiri militants in the country. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi sounded a bit skeptical on Aug 31 when he highlighted that fighting terrorism cannot be used to justify the violation of territorial integrity and disregard of the sovereignty of another country, adding that “the Turkish Army should immediately stop its military operations there. [2]
The Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim also condemned the Turkish Army’s violation of Syrian sovereignty, emphasizing that they did not have the permission to enter the country unannounced and without coordination with Damascus. [3]
These are however rather weak responses when one considers the prospect of a similar invasion back in February 2016, with both Syria and Iran threatening to engage any invading force who entered Syria. This coupled with the fact that Russia has remained rather silent gives us a hint that perhaps this incursion was not so unannounced as one would believe. It may seem that Russia could have given Turkey the green light to enter Syria and clear the border area from ISIL, and while both Syria and Iran still view Turkey’s intentions as untrustworthy, they may have been swayed by Russia to at least wait and see what will happen in northern Syria before taking any actions which could lead to a tremendous escalation of the conflict.
It is worthy of notice that just before the Turkish incursion, the Kurdish YPG and their police forces “Asayish” were attacking the Syrian government forces in the city of Al-Hasakah, and despite numerous attempts at a ceasefire by the Syrian government, the Kurdish forces refused and declared their intention to fully claim Al-Hasakah for themselves. This could also explain why Syria and Iran have been neglecting the fact that Turkish forces are attacking the YPG/SDF as well. Indeed both Syria and its allies have previously tried to cooperate with the SDF or at least remain neutral towards them, yet recent events have shown that they answer to Washington rather than taking an independent stance towards the conflict. This was very much clear when the SDF spokesman Talal Silo said in an interview that “in Syria, the Americans forbid us from talking to Russia”. [4]
Whatever may have been said behind closed doors, and whether or not Syria and Iran were aware of the incursion beforehand, this invasion and the establishment of an Islamist corridor in northern Aleppo is of danger to the Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance as this would open up a new front against the Syrian Army and its allies in Aleppo. Currently the Islamist militants have only the Bab Al-Hawa border crossing in Idlib to use for resupplying their forces and conduct attacks against the Syrian government positions in Aleppo. Should the Islamist militants push for the ISIL stronghold of Al-Bab which lies directly to the east of Aleppo city, they will be able to attack Aleppo city from both the western and the eastern flanks, which could spell a lot of trouble for the Syrian Army. However, the Turkish backed Islamist militants must first reach Al-Bab before the SDF does, as capturing Al-Bab is also the last hope for the Kurdish led SDF to connect their territory with the Afrin canton to the west. The race for Al-Bab is on.
On a different note and in a different area in the Aleppo province, the Syrian Arab Army conducted a powerful counter-offensive in response to the massive Islamist operation led by Jaysh Al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) to break the siege of Aleppo last month, with the army attacking the imperative Aleppo Artillery base, near the Ramouseh district. This battle went back and forth for almost two weeks before the army managed to break through the collapsing Islamist defences and managed to fully recapture the Artillery base on Sunday night, with huge advances being made the day after due to a total collapse in the Islamist frontlines in the Southwestern Aleppo city area. As a result of the capture of the Artillery base and its surroundings, the siege of Aleppo is once again established with the Russian Defence Ministry declaring that there are 7 corridors open for humanitarian aid and one corridor open for militants who want to surrender their arms. [5]
In the latest development, Iranian IRGC Major-General Qassem Soleimani has been seen in southwestern Aleppo inspecting the Harakat Al-Nujaba forces (Iraqi Paramilitary) stationed there, possibly in preparation for a new pro-government offensive on the town of Khan Touman, which was lost to Islamist militants in a May-June offensive this year.
Below are two maps showing mainly the Turkish-backed advance, with the second map focusing on the army’s advance in southwestern Aleppo city.
- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3756554/US-told-pro-Kurdish-forces-Syria-not-cross-Euphrates-Biden.html ↑
- http://en.mehrnews.com/news/119376/FM-voices-concern-at-Turkey-s-military-incursion-in-Syria ↑
- https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-government-condemns-turkish-armys-illegal-entry-aleppo/ ↑
- https://life.ru/t/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/893017/komanduiushchii_dss_v_sirii_amierikantsy_zaprieshchaiut_nam_razghovarivat_s_russkimi ↑
- https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/aleppo-7-corridors-aid-delivery-one-militants-exit-russian-dm/ ↑
There is another reason why Russia, Iran & Syria are not really protesting against the Turkish incursion.
No one in the region wants a Kurdish state or have a Kurdish independent region inside their borders. Add in that the state or regions would be dependent on (and thus beholden to) the US for survival and it becomes attractive for all (except the Kurds and the US) to stop the Kurdish land grab.
The biggest downside if for Syrian government which has no choice but accept that the Turks have setup a safe zone for ‘moderates’. But that is a gamble worth taking since it is mostly empty desert there and can be reclaimed from the Turks once west Syria, meaning Aleppo and surroundings, is back under control.
Putin continues to act like a general who cares more for the welfare of his opponents than for his allies. Assad must wish he had more enemies like Putin and fewer friends like Putin.
Paul,
Assad would be hanging from a lamppost long ago without Putin.
The Russians are not fighting for Moscow. They have their limits, thought not limitations. They won’t use thousands of troops in combat. They won’t commit more jets and helos than they need.
Get real.
What about the Iranians? Where are their regular troops. It’s always proxies with the Iranians. They even are bringing in Shiites from Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight in Syria. Why not Iranians?
Quds, some Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.
If Syria goes down, Iran is next. They have everything at stake. But they stay out when their big presence would have made the fighting since February much easier.
No blame for them? Just Putin hatred.
And you don’t know what the hell you are talking about, to boot.
If Pytin had delivered the S300’s Syria paid for years ago, including the Yak fighter jets (which def.min Shoigu even suggested to send so Syria) and the Mig31’s Syria paid for as well, Syria would not have been in such a weak position that they could fly around Syria and even threaten so shoot down Syrian jets.
Why no easy links to social media for these analyses to be posted on?
That attitude served General Grant well when he met Lee at Appomattox.
Then again, it was just another stepping stone to the unspeakable situation we find ourselves in today
the triple army is in high spirits after last week’s successful operation in Aleppo. By snatching back parts of the city they lost in mid-August, the Syrian army and its allies managed to cut off the rebels’ supply lines from Turkey.
It was then that some Hizballah units were detached from the Aleppo arena and redirected to the Quneitra front in southern Syria to face the Israeli border.
Completely disagree with Paul’s comment about Putin. Far to simple. Try this one on for size.
1) Putin has arranged for the Turks to kick the Kurds back without getting bombed by Russian & Syrian airforces.
2) The Kurds ditch their US backing.
3) Once the Kurds are in Putin’s camp he oversees negotiations with Turkey, Syria and the Kurds whereby a Kurdish province in Syria is setup.
4) Turkish troops withdraw to their side of the border but hand over the territory to Syrian Army.
5) Turkey leaves NATO and abandons the EU path joining China’s silk road and Asia.
Just my SWAG but much more plausible than Putin not having a clear plan and outcome in mind.
Good points. But, Turkey joining any effort, the Silk Road, is a problem since the country is run by criminals and pathological liars.
What a fantastic comment! Ha Ha Ha! Berlisconi, Cameron, Junkers, Obammy, Clintons, Tepper, Net&yahoo, Tony Abbott, Hollande, and on and on and on, including all the criminal corporate, media and political entourage that put and hold them there? What is straight about them?
I have some good chats with African etc military friends of mine. They are loyal and exceedingly polite and humble. An open discussion with them of how they actually view the rapacious greed and abuses of western governments, past and present: our lot are no different to how you see Erdrogan.
Try being taken to a UK court house and join the queues for a 3mph speeding fault and see his worship elegantly and with all the fanfare and costume of legitimacy extract from the serfs for his own pocket and those above him what in India is correctly called ‘baksheesh’.
Wake up grasshopper. Most only enter the political arena to control the flow through some gate or other.
U.S. trying to “manage”
U.S. trying to “manage” Turkish/Syrian Kurdish tension, Defense Secretary Ash Carter says.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a49_1473293712
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1cd_1473293138
SEP 7 NEW
Syrian National Resistance’ coalition founded against Turkish invasion
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Syrian National Resistance’ coalition comprised of Syrian patriots and forces has been declared in a press conference held in Efrîn’s Til Rifet town with the attendance of press workers and Syrian National Resistance Political Bureau members.
A solidarity coalition has been formed under the name “Syrian National Resistance” against the Turkish state’s invasion on Syrian territory
Meanwhile, the bloodthirsty British are increasingly revealing their imperial “divide and conquer” designs for Syria, as they are hosting the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) composed of Anglo American stooges … sorry,…moderate pro-democracy Syrian freedom fighters who are agitating for the overthrow of the Syrian government.
Mounting evidence of British “boots on the ground” in Syria
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/09/08/syri-s08.html?view=print
and F M Johnson confirms again Assad must go………
Diplomacy and “chess strategy” are the key factors defining developments on the battlefield in Syria, and Russia and Turkey understand each other well, unlike the US, Turkish political scientist Mesut Hakkı Casın told Sputnik Turkiye.
© SPUTNIK/ MIKHAIL ALAEDDIN Syrian Crisis: ‘Obama in Gridlock, Putin on Top of the Developments’ In the follow up to the recent announcement of President Putin that the Turkish military operation in Syria “was not something unexpected” for the Kremlin and Turkish recent proposal to announce a 48-hour ceasefire in Syria’s Aleppo, Sputnik Turkiye sat down with Turkish political scientist and expert in international relations, Professor at the İstanbul-based Yeditepe University Mesut Hakkı Casın to get his comments on these issues. “Diplomacy and chess strategy are the key factors which define the developments on the battlefield in Syria,” the political scientist told Sputnik.
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160908/1045079622/russia-turkey-us-syria.html
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“The head of the US Ministry of Defense Ashton Carter said that Russia has not fulfilled some of its promises on Syria, in particular, the conduct of the political transition of power in the country and joining the struggle against extremism that is Washington.
“It can use its influence to help at the end of the civil war. That is why the Secretary of State Kerry so patiently talking to Russian. As the president said, he wants to test the hypothesis that the Russian might, in the end, do what they say, they want to do in Syria – namely to conduct a political transition from the Assad regime, it is necessary to stop the civil war, which It is the cause of all suffering. And then join the anti-extremism campaign, in particular, with the IG, we spend the time in which we have the results. But the Russian do not help in this, and do not really participate in it “- Carter said in an interview with CNN.
The number of settlements that have joined the reconciliation process has increased to 578. The number of armed groups that have declared their commitment to the terms of a cessation of hostilities, remained unchanged – 69. The
cessation of hostilities during the day was observed in most provinces of the Syrian Arab Republic. Recorded 8 violations in the provinces of Damascus (6) and Latakia (2).
The Russian VKS and Air Force Syria opposition militias, have declared a cessation of hostilities and to report to the Russian or American centers reconciliation information about their location, strikes are not applied.
Ankara is ready for US proposal to take part in a joint operation by the release of the Syrian city of Raqqa, which is the capital of the self-proclaimed terrorist group “Islamic State.” On this, as reported by Hurriyet The, Turkish President Erdogan said.
The Syrian conflict, according to the Turkish leader, was discussed during his meeting with his US counterpart Barack Obama at the G20 summit. “Obama told me that he wants something to do with us to Raqqa. We are told that on our part will have no problems. We offered to our military to meet and discuss how to do this “, – said Erdogan. He noted that Turkey must demonstrate its power in the region and pointed to the success of the operation carried out by Ankara in the north of Syria. The president of Turkey said that Obama had already offered a joint attack on Rakka, provided the termination of US cooperation with the Kurdish forces, but Washington refused.
Dates Turkish joint operation and the United States for the release of Raqqa on the IG to discuss yet. “In China, a proposal was received from the American side about the joint operation in Raqqa While talk about the timing of the operation sooner, but Turkey is considering favorably the proposal, and stated what our president.”, – Said Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Dzhanikli. He also did not rule out that the Turkish army will continue to promote deeper into Syria after the liberation of the Turkish-Syrian border by the IG, reports Reuters.
Turkish Armed Forces within 15 days of the operation “The Shield Euphrates” in Syria killed 110 members of terrorist organizations, with their own losses amounted to five people dead, said Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey. “During the 15 days of the operation 772 square kilometers of the territory of Syria cleared of terrorists, destroyed 110 terrorist group” Islamic state “and self-defense forces of Syrian Kurds. Turkish Armed Forces Losses – five dead and 19 wounded, destroyed four tanks and several armored personnel carriers “, – transmits his words to RIA” Novosti “.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that concerned about the promotion of Turkish troops into the territory of Syria. “The Russian Foreign Ministry expresses its serious concern about the promotion of Turkish troops and they support the militias of the Syrian opposition deep into Syrian territory”, – said in a statement on the site office.
The ministry also noted that these actions are carried out without the consent of the legitimate Syrian authorities and without the approval of by the UN Security Council.
British Foreign Boris Johnson said that Moscow should stop “unsound” support the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. It is reported by The Independent.
According to the agency, Assad is a “killing machine”, and the Kremlin is making a mistake by helping him to stay in power. “When the Russian asked to explain his untenable behavior, they always say the same thing:” What then who will come after Assad? “” – Johnson complained.
The Minister noted that the UK has the answer: “Who is in London brought together people who have rich management experience acquired in Syria, while rejecting the police state Assad in style. They want to create a safe state, free of terrorism, which could return migrants. ”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry during a personal meeting in Geneva on 8-9 September will continue to discuss the settlement of the conflict in Syria. This was reported on the website of the Russian diplomatic service.
“In accordance with the request of the presidents of Russia and the United States on the basis of their conversations on September 5 sidelines of the summit” Group of Twenty “, the foreign ministers worked out the remaining details of the agreements on the establishment of Russian-American cooperation in the fight against acting in Syria terrorist groups, the expansion of humanitarian access and start mezhsiriyskogo political process “, – said in a statement.
Syrian President Bashar Assad must leave his post for six months, reports Reuters. With such a demand made by the chief negotiator of the Syrian opposition Riyad Hijab at a meeting on Syria in London. He said Assad should transfer the administration of the country to the interim government.
Syrian opposition group “Hmeymim” has announced that it is ready to bring to the talks in Geneva, representatives of the Kurdish party “Democratic Alliance”. If the special representative of the UN Secretary General on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, will not give consent to the joint participation of the Syrian opposition and the Kurds “Hmeymim” are going to get out of the negotiation process, said the head of “Hmeymim” Ilya Mas’ade. “I invite the representatives of the” Democratic Union “and in particular its leader Saleh Muslim to speak at a single negotiating delegation. If de Mistura will refuse such an option, we will suspend our participation in the dialogue, “- put an ultimatum Mas’ade.
The representative of the “Democratic Union” Syrian Kurds Khaled Issa, however, at a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted on a separate delegation. This position was confirmed “News” the representative of the “Democratic Union” in Russia Abd Salam Ali: “I doubt very much that we will enter the group” Hmeymim “. The Kurds should be represented at negotiations in Geneva on a separate delegation. ”
North Caucasus District Military Court in Rostov region sentenced to eight years in a penal colony Magomed Magomedov for participation in illegal armed formations on the territory of Syria”…more regional news at
http://www.anna-news.info/node/64082
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I wonder if there will be the usual FM presentation with Zakarova today………..
The Turkish invasion has several useful aspects for the Syrian-Russian-Iranian coalition.
1. With Turkish troops now present in a foreign land, Russia and Iran can turn up the heat at any moment, covertly (providing more support to the YPG, including advanced weapons) and overtly (Ultimatum to the Turks to leave). They now have lots more options to make Turkey pay dearly, contrary to before where the only realistic retorsion measures were of an economical nature.
2. It also provides a precedent for officially coming to the aid of Syria. Iran could invoke the Turkish precedent if at one point in the future it decides to officially commit troops to fight in Syria.
3. It increases the contradictions between the US and Turkey.
4. It diminishes the allocated resources on other fronts, which one of the likeliest explanations for the crumbling of the front in southern Aleppo. Turkey had to extract resources from the Aleppo front to participate to the offensive in Jarabulus. Notice the reduced media coverage, a few weeks ago MSM was screaming bloody murder and crime against humanity against the Aleppo siege, now the SAA is on the verge of sealing up East Aleppo again and the reaction is muted.
This really gives Russia a lot more cards to play. They could even try to detach the YPG and the SDF from their US patron, as the Kurds are in a tricky situation now.
Excellent report. I think you explained Russia’s attitude: “It is worthy of notice that just before the Turkish incursion, the Kurdish YPG and their police forces ‘Asayish’ were attacking the Syrian government forces in the city of Al-Hasakah.”
The Kurds promised Assad not to declare an independent state in their original deal years ago. Since then, they pushed out Arabs and minorities (to some degree) from their territory and now they’re attacking Syrian troops/militias. I think Putin and Syria sent them a message, well deserved.
It is also a good bet that Erdogan will screw this up and implicate himself more as a ISIS supporter (e.g., the resupply of Aleppo jihadists).
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/what-is-behind-vladimir-putins-curious-interest-in-mount-athos/
When Aram published this piece, this was no doubt an accurate statement:
**The Russian-Iranian-Syrian reaction to this Turkish incursion has been very silent with only minor expressions of dissatisfaction coming from Damascus and Tehran, while Moscow has been rather silent.**
Late yesterday I read this and became a little unnerved.
** Moscow voices profound concern over Turkish troops’ movement into Syrian territory **
http://tass.com/politics/898416
ERDOGAN IS THE WILD CARD IN THIS GAME AND HE IS DOING A MASTERFUL JOB.
It appears to be resolving into a Turkey v YPG scenario in Northern Syria.
YPG again restates federal plan to create ‘Rojova’, despite no backing from any of the states involved, and no popular referendum in the region.
Comment that sums up their foolhardiness (or assumed USrzeli backing):
(From Joe Settor at ekurd net)
The “Project” as some call it is fenced in by Turkey linked North Iraq and Barzani on the east , Turkey to the north and Assad to the west. There is no airport reach and no trade is allowed any longer. I suppose if they moved further south along the Iraq border they can try to make something work with the US placed Iraq govt. , but thats about it ! .When you have no airport and no manufacturing ability it means you cannot get goods or even medicine in a time when war, carbombs, and attacks by Turkey are common. Prices for everything go up and things get scarce. Syria Kurds are the only ones fighting that do not have a commited backer. The rebels of all sorts have Turkey, Assad has Russia, and Kurds will find they get zip from my country. Now had they simply sold the corridor issue to Turkey in exchange for trade and agreed to terms with the Syria govt their lives would have been alot easier. Those rights issues like voting, language, ect could have been had without the “Project.” Syria is in a dangerous place now with Allepo prov in danger of being permanently annexed by Turkey.All they can hope for is that Assad is forever tied up with the rebels. Is that 1 year 3 years 5 years? And then ? The federal projects lack of a vote by the rest of Syria leaves it exposed. I dont believe there will be peace in the long run. While the ideology seems to be opposed to nationstate consider this: The project can have a capital, and regional elections, also no armed police or national army are allowed to travel thru the borders of the project. You see where this is all heading and its not going to be something that will exist in peace. The Syria as a whole have not been able to weigh in on federalism. I see unecessary poverty and future loss of life in this sort of independently imposed federal project. Poeple making life harder than need be for the sake of the “Project.” There was a plan to merge the YPG into the SAA but these negotiations urged by Russia broke down fairly recently. While I dont have the reason one can only suspect it was related to the project and not issue of other rights voting, language ect. The PYD made peace agreement with the Mare operations room also and that did not help matters to their benefit. What is disturbing is how many times I see mindless statements online by folks from the west saying “Kurds must make their own state” so on and so on. Can they not consider outcomes that can be bad ? Or that there are dangerous neigbors on all sides only limited by their own imaginations to commit bloodshed?
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The only real change had been the Kurdish push to unite their north Syrian land claims which the Kurds envision as future Shabha Canton.
These ambitions have been rolled back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava
The YPG were accused of plotting a ‘demographical change’ in north Syria, burning Manbij civil and land registry buildings and preventing Arabs from returning.
http://news.antiwar.com/2016/08/14/kurds-accused-of-changing-demography-in-manbij/
Combined with Kurdish action in Hasekeh, driving out all abut a token SAA force from the city, its clear the Kurds were determined to establish their Rojava.
Its also clear that Rojava-Mabij was in no-one’s interests but the Kurds. North Syria is right on the path of future pipelinistan; that means transit fees from whomever occupies said land. It isn’t going to be the Kurds, especially since that land is primarily Arab-Turkic land.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/12/07/syria-ultimate-pipelineistan-war.html
The Turks weren’t going to stand for it. This has been clear for months; the U.S. would have to choose between Turkey or the Kurds.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3435846/Erdogan-US-choose-Turkey-Kurdish-forces.html
Nor was it in Syria’s or Turkey’s best interests to have an overt American ally occupying north Syria. Likewise opposition from Syria’s allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah was guaranteed.
The Kurds failed to account for a post-coup Erdogan far less likely to respect American interests and any U.S.-Kurd alliance.
The Americans were finally caught between the rock (Turkey) and hard place (Kurdistan) they had been gaming and have temporarily lost out, but then, the Kurds had become an uppity vassal.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ypg-withdrawn-manbij-two-capturing-isis/
The removal of direct IS links with the Turkish border isn’t meaningful since these links were always dependent on the tolerance of Turkey/Turkish DAESH for IS. Turkey has always supported its own proxy forces. The Kurds are not driven back across the Euphrates, but neither can they officialize Shabha Canton and unite with Afrin Canton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava
There’s been no real change in North Syria. DAESH of some stripe still control much of north Syria. The Syrian Arab Army isn’t yet strong enough to exercise control in north Syria anyway. Turks and Kurds remain wild cards beholden to their own interests. The Americans seem clueless however they stir the pot and default to turning up the heat.
The Russians doggedly pursue a political solution, which appears to be the only real solution, to which the Americans, who want no solution, periodically pretend to agree.
https://www.rt.com/news/358899-syria-truce-deal-reaction/
For the U.S. this is like going for best three out of five, after losses to the Russian air campaign then at Aleppo.
Everyone always fights the last war not the war at hand.
The American conventional military edge on Russia is irrelevant and useless. Yes it is good to have some conventional military power to prevent any type of foreign backed color revolution etc. and to be able to last more than week or 2 before going nuclear as a kind of pause mechanism. Beyond that conventional forces today are useless and a big waste of money, unless you want to bombard and occupy a defenseless third world country. Just as the Soviet advantage in conventional forces during the cold war meant nothing. It just made them good targets for tactical or bigger nukes. The same is true of the conventional USSA military advantage over Russia today, it is totally useless. Russia and the USSA can project their full nuclear military power anywhere on the planet in 30 minutes and it is relevant how far any such country is from the USSA or Russia.
Such stupid idiotic and dangerous talk that Russia can’t protect its friends it has treaties with is very dangerous and only encourages the mad men that rule America today. Russia needs to make it very clear to the billionaire criminal oligarchs, who rule the USSA today, that if they don’t agree to get out of Syria and Ukraine etc. areas of vital Russian national interest ASAP, they the billionaires specifically will all be destroyed along with their families etc, along with every American military base on the planet in 30 minutes. Russia needs to demonstrate total nuclear commitment in this respect. This is what kept the cold war from getting hot. This is what the USA did in Cuba.
To do anything less is to make certain there will be a global nuclear war within 5 years or less.
Around 2010 Paul Wolfowitz quietly realized he had spent a trillion dollars to reinvent the Maginot line (called the Patriot missile shield) and America would not be able to launch a preemptive nuclear strike on the Russians without getting a healthy — or unhealthy — dose in return.
That’s when he decided to strangle Russia instead of nuking her. TPTB were willing to back up the neocon’s plans, as long as it didn’t involve a nuclear exchange. What was the point of being a billionaire oligarch if a radioactive wind blew from the four corners of the globe?
So Wolfowitz decided to garrote Russia with regime change in her allies and a destabilized ME. Saboteurs went to work in Syria and, in the name of the Arab Spring, a rebellion started. Assad was demonized by the Western MSM and about a year ago Moscow entered the fray and … well, we all know how that’s going. Early in 2014 the Ukrainian government fell, but it carelessly dropped Crimea in doing so. Soon NATO was encamped all along the Russian border from the Baltic to the Black Seas.
This was the crux of Wolfie’s stratagem: to provoke Russia into fighting a conventional war with NATO. The Russians were unprovocable and let the West know that there would be a nuclear response to any military action against them.
Poor Wolfowitz now spends his days in a cork lined room trying to figure out if Putin will really respond atomically to an invasion by the US and NATO.