by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
Hezbollah is facing a new challenge, and this time it is not a military one, but rather political.
Perhaps few countries need peaceful “popular revolutions” more than Lebanon does. In my simplistic way of thinking, Lebanon should actually be on the top of the list; followed by the USA.
Corruption in Lebanon is endemic. Its politicians are in reality the heirs of dynasties with self-given “birthrights”. Lebanon is ruled, owned, and manipulated by a few families and bloodlines that virtually own everything and have control on whatever happens in the country. This excludes the very few new comers such as the Hariri dynasty, Hezbollah, and the incumbent President Aoun, among others that one can count on the fingers of one hand.
Before President Aoun was finally elected, Lebanon had a presidential vacuum and had no head of state for 29 long months. It took all that time for the feuding Mafias to finally come to an agreement that guaranteed their positions and vested interests before they were convinced that Aoun was the right choice.
Aoun does not come from any of the political-feudal lineages. As a former Army Chief, and despite his history as a former enemy of Syria in the 1980’s who turned into a supporter twenty years later and eventually became a political partner of Hezbollah, he was finally endorsed even by his Christian Maronite arch-rival, Samir Geagea, the head of the rightwing “Lebanese Forces” as a conciliatory president. This was what finally gave him the numbers to be elected and ended the presidency vacuum crisis.
Aoun was perhaps the first Lebanese president to be elected by consent of many rivals and former political and strategic enemies. After all, he had the backing of Hezbollah and the approval of Geagea. He had all that was needed to embark on a journey of reform.
And “Reform and Change” was the motto of his political party.
As a former enemy of Syria, he took voluntary exile in France in 1984 and started his movement of alleged reform. As he returned to Lebanon in 1999, in the years leading up to his election, his rhetoric was that of holding politicians accountable for corruption.
In 2008 Aoun visited Syria, his former enemy, and was greeted by President Assad like a head of state. He had a huge reform agenda, but whether he was genuine or not, by the time he was elected as President in 2016, he was already in his eighties and suffering ill health.
As a president and if anything at all, he followed the footsteps of those he was meant to hold accountable by endorsing his son-in-law Gibran Bassil to become a Member of Parliament and a Minister. But this is not all, he acted in a manner as if he has passed on the presidency and the running of Lebanon to Bassil.
This would have gone well had Bassil been “clean”, but he soon proved to be corruptible as hell. Bassil is now perhaps the most hated Lebanese politician. He is believed to have amassed billions of dollars of corruption funds. The current Lebanese uprising in the streets of Lebanon and the world are aimed at many Lebanese politicians; but mainly Bassil.
What is pertinent is that the political backdrop that eventuated in guaranteeing Bassil’s position has originally come from Hezbollah who has secured the presidency of his father-in-law; President Aoun.
In hindsight, Hezbollah has made a bad gamble on Aoun, and this is forgivable perhaps, but what is unforgivable was turning a blind eye to thus far three years of unimaginable corruption of the Aoun tenure.
Admittedly, the Lebanese Cabinet, headed by Saad Hariri, an opponent of Hezbollah, is an all-inclusive cabinet. Politically, strategically and militarily protected by Hezbollah in a manner that represents all political parties of Lebanon, the ambient Lebanese cabinet has Nasrallah as its patron. Right or wrong, this is the general understanding in the streets of Lebanon now.
For the sake of giving itself a constitutional cover and parliamentary majority, Hezbollah’s gamble on Aoun is failing. Aoun is losing ground and for Hezbollah to continue to support him would be an act of political suicide.
Currently, everything about what looks like a “Lebanese Revolution” looks legitimate and worthy of support. Thus far, the protestors have been peaceful and civilized. Lebanon is a country rich in many ways; well-educated human resources, agriculture, water, tourism venues, untapped oil/gas, you name it. People are angry because their government has not yet been able to build up enough infrastructure after the 1975-1989 Civil War that destroyed much of it. The country is reeling from growing unemployment, the high cost of living and a lack of basic local services like water, power and garbage management. Add to this the factor of low income, it becomes understandable that the Lebanese are sick and tired of having to put up with a seemingly endless legacy of government incompetence and rising taxes.
So once again, Lebanon needs a peaceful popular revolution that can provide reform; not more destruction, and the current uprising, which hasn’t been given a name yet, will inevitably, for better or for worse, yield some outcomes.
What seems probable is that President Aoun will be forced into retirement at the very least. And, this may only be the prelude to further developments. However, what we are seeing now in Lebanon is not necessarily a “Lebanese Spring”. The seasonal aspect of it does not necessarily mean that it is a “Lebanese Fall” either. It is a Lebanese test; and most specifically a defining moment for Hezbollah.
Thus far, Hezbollah has been “faultless” in as far as deterring Israel, protecting its own ground base and providing enough popular support to guarantee its popularity.
And the support of, and well regard for Hezbollah did not only come from the Shiite sector of the Lebanese community. After all, Hezbollah represented resistance, and this ideological arm has no sectarian boundaries. But what Hezbollah seems to have failed to realize is that it cannot bank on ideology alone, all the while turning a blind eye on corruption.
It has to be said as it is. Hezbollah is becoming increasingly perceived in Lebanon as having a role in protecting its corrupt government. This situation is inviting the “Soros connected” forces to take control of the “Lebanese Revolution”.
But as events in Lebanon are changing on daily basis, we must look back at the Arab Spring and what came out of it.
There is a revolution in Lebanon and I support it. People on the streets are genuine and have legitimate demands. But this revolution is headless and has fingerprints of meddlers already. After all, as we see virtually millions of Lebanese flags appearing all over the world, including some that are 300 and 400 meters long, we ought to ask where did they come from and who paid for them? And, who is giving the greenlight for mainstream media coverage to this all?
After the Israeli war with Hezbollah in July 2006, Shiite Muslim Hezbollah had a huge popularity in Lebanon even in the Muslim Sunni as well as Christian regions. This changed soon after Hezbollah made the decision to control the streets of Beirut in May 2007. Ever since, Hezbollah lost a fair chunk of its popularity outside the Shiite sect.
Nasrallah must make his position clear in regard to the street protests and his stand on the ugly corruption that is bringing Lebanon to its knees. He had to urgently respond to the street rallies during the 2005 so-called “Cedar Revolution”, where protestors wanted Syrian troops out of Lebanon, and the counter pro-Hezbollah protestors demanded the opposite. The schism back then brought Lebanon close to civil war again. A repeat of such a scenario now is potentially more dangerous and inflammatory than back then.
Hezbollah rose victorious, both politically and militarily, and with victory in Syria, the position of Hezbollah in Lebanon has never been stronger. Hence a wise and appropriate response to the current crisis is paramount.
The situation occurring presently is quite different to the events of 2005. It is no longer ideological. People are literally unemployed, angry and hungry. They blame the corrupt government, and are pointing the finger at Hezbollah for its silence.
Hunger and popular anger do not stop at sectarian boundaries.
Nasrallah has been making the right decisions thus far, but he cannot afford to be complacent. Each and every camel has a straw that can break its back, and Aoun is not the one for Nasrallah to count on for political survival; quite the contrary in fact.
Even within the ranks of heartland pro-Hezbollah territory, there is an element of opposition to the Aoun administration and its political and economic bankruptcy.
The success of Hezbollah as a liberating force in Lebanon may well have reached a crossroad now. How the protests and the issues voiced are dealt with, will define the future of Hezbollah. It can cause it great damage or, if quickly respond to with sympathy and solutions to the issues raised by the groundswell of angry and fed-up protesters, Hezbollah can maintain the grassroots support they enjoyed. It is time for Hezbollah to revisit the viability of its political alliances.
The progress of the popular uprising thus far, sounds too good to be true. However the substantial support this uprising is receiving, both domestically and internationally is ominous. International support can only be based on political interests aimed at reducing the stronghold of Hezbollah and to weaken the position of the axis of resistance.
Without a figure head, without a clear agenda, the Lebanese uprising is likely to end up like the Egyptian uprising back in 2011. The street anger will be employed by the meddlers in order to serve their own agendas, and the suffering of the people will not be reduced. This is my fear.
The timing of this ‘revolution’ is a little suspect.
No sooner is the Syrian question settled than the pot in Lebanon is stirred, ostensibly by the imposition of some monthly charge for using Whatsapp, among other levies…
The blowback from the Chosenites/Exceptionals is just getting started…
I think it’s safe to say the Lebanese government made a serious mistake here. The truth is, there are corrupt politicians in every government on the planet, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, etc. But what the CIA & Mossad regime change operators have become experts at is taking some underlying vulnerability that causes these protests to happen in the first place and then exploiting and magnifying that vulnerability to serve their own interests, thus corrupting the original intentions of the protest movement in the first place. Washington cannot be blamed for the corruption that exists within the Lebanese government, and it is to their advantage to exploit it. This is why it is so important for Hezbollah and those in Lebanon to come to a solution that will benefit everyone as quickly as possible, while at the same time rooting out the corrupt actors in the Lebanese government. The Whatsapp tax will have to go immediately, and they should never try to tax people’s online lives ever again – This is bound to cause anger. But there is a lot more things that need to be done for this to have a happy ending.
If things get bad in Lebanon, it may effect the entire region. I had a dream the other night and a voice spoke to me saying, “If things get bad in Lebanon, it will get bad everywhere.” What needs to be understood about evil is that they cannot force people to do their bidding by violating free will directly. But they can take an underlying vulnerability inside of you, point it out to you, and magnify it, thus allowing their influence to cause self-harm. And they have learned how to do this to entire countries. Its what makes them so dangerous. But if there were no vulnerability to be exploited in the first place, then they would never have had any influence or power over anyone. This is why it is important for people to learn from their mistakes and correct any vulnerabilities or deficiencies that could be used by Evil before it becomes a problem.
Mistake? Perhaps it was deliberate knowing the consequences. Hariri would have no issue seeing Hezbollah lose position. As would Israel.
Hariri is Sordid Barbaria’s, therefore Israel’s, beech. This Colour Revolution will soon morph into a ‘Get Hezbollah’ campaign.
Already I have seen a thug on France 24 claiming that the revolt is directed against Hezbollah, and heard a local Sabbat Goy stooge end an interview with the assertion that the crowds are chanting anti-Nasrallah slogans. No doubt real journalists will soon identify the forces behind this Colour Revolution, and it will all be denied, ignored or derided as a ‘conspiracy theory’.
“too good to be true”.. Brilliant as always Ghassan.
Thank you for this deep reading into Lebanese politics.
Iraq is even more corrupt, actually one of the most corrupt places on Earth. Obviously no thanks to several wars under Saddam, US occupation and ISIS.
But many of the Shia ruling elite (including a few of the Sunni elite) since 2003 have siphoned hundreds of billions of dollars out of Iraq into their dual nationality bank accounts in London, Switzerland, Jordan and the GCC, among many other places.
In the last 16 years since the fall of the Saddam government, barely any basic infrastructure like electricity and water treatment has been upgraded and this includes surprisingly in the Shia south where it has been safe and calm.
Literally hundreds of billions of dollars of oil money could have been spent on the country, and especially the more calm safe areas, instead all gone to fake giant billion dollar projects, money laundering and extreme nepotism and corruption.
I’m an Arab and with great shame I can tell you that corruption is on such an unprecedented level in the Arab world, some countries make Ukraine look like saints.
A huge population of young people who have a lot of energy and zero opportunities while being oppressed by an extremely corrupt elite class makes for a very explosive situation and sets up a country to be easily exploited by outside forces.
It is time for people to grasp and educate themselves on this key issue within the Anglo-Zionist framework.
Thank you for your perspective. I think some of us here tend to look at countries like Iraq and Syria with rose colored glasses because we support the military operations of these countries against US-backed proxy fighters and their regime change plans. But the reality is there is corruption in every single government on the entire planet. Not a single government on this Earth is free of corruption. Where ever there is an opportunity to loot and pillage and steal for self-benefit, there will always be some self-serving parasite to take that opportunity. But this brings up the larger question of how do we create a system of rule that is free of corruption and self-serving interests? Because if this world is any example, it seems impossible.
Anon, corruption is everywhere and in every country as you mention, there is no doubt about that point. The Earth is not utopia for sure.
However, what we can see and clearly recognize is that there are places that a more corrupt than others. So the solution is to reduce corruption as much as possible within the society and within the ruling, elite and educated class. But especially within the ruling and elite class, because this class makes or breaks a nation they are ruling.
Take for example Russia. When Russia was ruled and run by a corrupt class who exploited the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was in a very dire situation. As more people of moral and love for their country started regaining power, the country regained its power and status. Were the majority of the Russian population corrupt ? Absolutely not ! But the people who took power (and probably who helped collapse the system) were corrupt.
Logic says you always go for the lesser of two or more evils. So for example, obviously a corrupt Iraq is better than an Iraq in a complete civil-war and destruction. But when the lesser evil continues unabated and when it reaches a certain threshold (for example a point of no return), it can actually let in the bigger evil you were afraid of.
Yes you should always prefer the lesser evil and not allow a bigger evil to prevail out of anger of the lesser evil. But if you are someone who is truthful and does not accept evil and injustice, you must not be silent of the lesser evil out of fear of the greater evil. Wherever there is evil and injustice you should speak out and stand up to it, because if not, you will eventually be corrupted yourself.
I actually agree with Anonymous. This system is broken and in need of change…there is no oversight of governments – people need to have oversight and control of government – its what Rudolf Steiner called the Threefold Social Order – where there is people over the government – organized people – like lawyers over courts and doctors over hospitals and teachers over schools….its the only way – government officials are always corrupt – it attracts them…they are all criminal types because of the power and ability to be corrupt…it has to stop before humanity can progress.
“A huge population of young (mainly men, 18-45, with no paternal claim to the family fortune) people who have a lot of energy and zero opportunities (passed to eldest son, the one who doesn’t have to go to war, family obligations and all that), oppressed by an extremly corrupt elite, makes for a very explosive situation”
My appologies for the paraphrase Harry, but that’s how humans have controlled excess population, mainly men, for thousadns of years. Two Great Wars fought in Europe took the population down nicely for the elite, the question to ask, is there a massing of young men taking place somewhere on the planet at the moment. Nothing like planning ahead.
It is impossible to deal with corruption on a national level when the corruption is part of the grease that makes the nation function. I suggest that any reform, if someone or some group were willing to take charge, be started by designating a city or region as a corruption free zone. It should be less difficult to overcome the dynasty in one location, and the target zone would have to be one that could see the benefit of improved infrastructure, through trade and through proximity to extra-national forces interested in seeing Lebanon becoming stronger.
An example would be somewhere to the north of Tripoli. There is access to transportation and an educated population. If the program succeeds there, then it can be expanded. Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, it would be business as usual.
The Seyyid did make a statement about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGqVJ2zmawo
And if you want an short excerpt of that speech translated:
https://twitter.com/Marwa__Osman/status/1185636026758451201?fbclid=IwAR1re6CrdpXTgA2_QKfDvy0gZK6hjUVeFNcaiCl9ymYAcpbB9pb42a3YRZg
i therefore dont understand the article…
Lebanon should imitate America as the premier example of how to have corruption that is endemic to the very core of the system–yet have a largely docile people who tolerant it or don’t care.
It really is quite amazing.
Just think: Enron, Arthur Anderson, Global Crossing, Subprime housing loans, Wall Street “too big to fail” financial firms, TARP billion dollar bailouts for these very same firms, Bernie Madoff, Jeffrey Epstein, the Boeing 737Max debacle, a gluttonous the Military Industrial Complex, and a oligarchical American “democracy” of the rich, by the rich, and for the rich.
Yet the vast majority of Proud Amuricans are largely apathetic to or tacitly supportive of this conga line of corruption!
How the hell is the American ruling class able to pull this off?
The USA must have the greatest propaganda system in human history–by far.
That’s how.
How the hell is the American ruling class able to pull this off?
The USA must have the greatest propaganda system in human history–by far.
No. It’s for the different reason that we fly-overs let the corruption pass. Our standard of living is still quite high by international standards, and we feel the pinch but not the bite of economic woes. So long as the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the rest of the world pays for our corruption, and it will stay that way until some upstart nation in West Asia stands up to the Hegemon. Enter Syria.
You are correct-the US does have the greatest propaganda system in history. so,
who to blame? Americans themselves, actually, for not asking enough questions…. also Hollywood partly, the corporate controlled media partly, the “educational” system partly, & the churches for not resisting evil enough. The watchmen on the wall tend to get shouted down…. or ignored. Also, Americans are extremely distracted. “Connected”, of course, but very distracted! ! ! As much as I value this site, I fear that most Americans just would not “get it”. Too bad.
thanks Ghassan..yes – I’ve been reading the posts of Lebanese people – it seems to be that Hassan Nasrallah is looked on as a dated entity.
I just finished reading another article, which suggested “Arab spring” in Lebanon. My question would be, would it be against Hezbollah? Lebanon is so messed up, that it does not need more mess, what it does need is getting rid of the likes of Harriri.
BTW, I can think of some other country/ies with similar “lineage” problem. Which never siezes to amaze me and forces me to ask the question “what’s wrong with these people?”
Also, one prominent lawyer (nationalist, not to be confused with fascist) insists that democracy does not work.
Right now there is an example about how to combat the corruption inside the government, that is succeeding in Mexico with the great leader AMLO, who has started his government with the goal to get zero corruption and is fighting this cancer with all his forces.
Hebolla is ‘faultless’ except when it comes to supporting corruption? If this revolution it’s to have any success and the people of Lebanon are to have succeeds the efforts should focus on building a strong Lebanese army and government without corruption and without a second paramilitary that operates and decides for itself. This is not good for any country but rather only good for Hassan Nasralla who of course has needing an exuse to stay in power since 2000. Sadly Hezbollas adventures have been far from faultless dragging Lebanon into war and destruction in 2006 and coming close on a number of other occasions. Who needs this? And I hope you have a better intellectual response than to say something like call me a Mossad or FBI agent.
How much of this is caused by American sanctions on Lebanese banks?
https://www.mintpressnews.com/trump-sanctions-economic-battering-ram-jamal-trust-bank/261582/
Is this a co-ordinated regime change operation?