Their styles are 180 degrees apart, but together, as towering giants on the world’s geopolitical stage, Putin and Xi are slowly winning all the chips from Western Empire, for a new, fairer and more peaceful world. (Image by David Parkins)
Russian Black Hat-Chinese White Hat
The Moscow-Beijing Express on The Saker
By: Jeff J. Brown, author and analyst at 44 Days Radio Sinoland
Video reading at: https://youtu.be/ucXA6cQ1nyI
Audio podcast at: https://soundcloud.com/44-days/russian-black-hat-chinese-white-hat-moscow-beijing-express-on-the-saker-by-jeff-j-brown-151031
If you have not read Russian President Vladimir Putin’s October, 2015 Valdai speech and subsequent question and answer session, you are missing out on a real treat. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548 He has essentially been saying the same thing for years, going back at least as far as his hard hitting Munich speech, in February, 2007. https://vimeo.com/38311242 In the interim, at the annual United Nations General Assembly speeches and previous Valdai talks, President Putin has come out four square against Western colonialism and global empire.
Almost all of his previous Anti-West declarations have been carefully couched in diplomatic obliqueness and inference. He would lambast “certain countries” (NATO) and “countries that think they are the world’s policeman” (the United States), etc. Putin would avoid ad hominem comments targeting Western leaders, although he once correctly said US Secretary of State John Kerry lied. http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/putin-kerry-syria-lying/2013/09/04/id/523875/ Must have had a bad day. Otherwise, behind the diplomatic legalese, everybody knew who Putin was talking about, without naming names. Using the “black hat-white hat” motif, I guess we could say that for a number of years, Russia’s president has been sporting a grey hat on the world diplomatic scene.
However, this year’s Valdai talk was different. The grey hat got tossed aside and Putin defiantly wore the blackest of hats. He said,
“Recently the United States conducted the first test of the anti-missile defense system in Europe. What does this mean? It means we were right when we argued with our American partners. They were simply trying yet again to mislead us and the whole world. To put it plainly, they were lying”.
Americans are liars. So what else is new? Ditto all of Uncle Sam’s slavish satraps in Eurangloland. But it takes on a whole different and refreshing dimension, when the president of Russia says it.
The US Ambassador to Russia, Jack Matlock, was at the Valdai Conference that day. Matlock is an old time cold warrior and Sovietologist, but since the Western rape of Russia, after the fall of the USSR, he has occasionally shown some sympathy for the Slavic world view. Nonetheless, Matlock represents the interests of America’s deep state, and Putin was ready to pounce. After getting Matlock to concede that America’s militarized foreign policy is largely driven by the lust for defense industry profits, Putin gave a withering riposte that began with,
“Mr. Ambassador, I find your arguments unconvincing. I have the greatest respect for your experience and diplomatic skills, of which you have given us a flawless demonstration, avoiding a direct answer. Well, you did answer my question, but not without some embellishments”.
It was the start of a long, scorching attack on all that is evil with US and Western colonial empire, using Ambassador Matlock as an in-person punching bag. I would have loved to have had a camera beamed on Mr. Matlock, during Putin’s tour de force, to watch his face and body language, as he got a verbal beating few diplomats receive in a public venue. I’m surprised he didn’t walk out, but decorum and maybe an innate sense of historical guilt, kept him in his seat.
People often ask me why Russia’s towering partner in the Anti-West Alliance, China, does not come out swinging at Uncle Sam on the world stage. They opine that humanity needs another powerful voice, like Russia’s, to speak truth to imperial power. Yes, Cuba, Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, North Korea, Eritrea and occasionally a few other countries routinely denounce Western colonialism in the public sphere. But let’s face it, China and Russia are in a class all their own. They are Popeye’s geopolitical forearms, as it were, with bellies full of spinach and the superpower clout to land a knockout punch on Uncle Sam’s glass jaw.
Russia and China are like Popeye’s geopolitical forearms, ready to give Uncle Sam a knockout punch.
So, President Xi Jinping, where are you? Well, he is here, there and everywhere on the world stage. But the Chinese have a millennial modus operandi of wearing a white hat in public, when it comes to international relations, from the citizen on the street, up to the highest levels of power. When I talk to working or white collar class Chinese, they obviously see I am a Westerner. Even speaking Chinese together, it takes a lot of peeling off layers, to get them to bare their souls and rage about the West’s sordid and genocidal colonial hegemony. It is just not in the DNA of the Chinese psyche, to be face-to-face confrontational. You almost always find out about any animus or disagreement via a third party, or asymmetrically from where you least expect it, out of the blue – or red, as it were. These kinds of “rope-a-dope” and “flutter and feint” tactics may have been branded by world champion boxing genius Mohammed Ali, but they have been honed and tested for thousands of Chinese years, going back to the “36 Stratagems” and Sun Zi’s “Art of War”.
Only one Chinese leader broke this longstanding mold: revolutionary Mao Zedong. Part of his zeal for transforming Chinese society and politics was to do away with “old thoughts and practices”. His in-your-face diplomacy against Western capitalism and “paper tiger America”, would make Putin and any other current Anti-West leader blush for their timidity. Few modern world leaders could or can match the Chairman’s brilliant use of mass media and diplomatic sword fighting. He inspired and still does today, many millions of anti-Western freedom fighters across the planet.
If you listen to Xi Jinping’s speeches and interviews, he is just as scathing and insulting as Mao or “2015 Valdai” Putin, but it is classically steeped in the “Art of War” and the “36 Stratagems”. He doesn’t say it, but he does. Baba Beijing detests America’s puerile microphone and Twitter diplomacy, finding it beneath the dignity of any world leader or power. Yes, Baba Beijing can see Putin hurling thunderbolts at the heart of Western hegemony, and they are privately doing a stadium wave in the National People’s Congress, Central and Political Standing Committees, to cheer him on. But no, they simply cannot imagine themselves doing the same thing.
I empathize with all my fellow anti-imperialists, who are pining for a quiver full of oriental lightning bolts, to be heaved with a vengeance across the wide Pacific. But it is a wishful waste of energy, for as much as we may desire otherwise, Mao’s vocal rhetoric was truly a Chinese anomaly. That being the case, you have to believe me that it is alright. Baba Beijing is extracting its kilo of Western colonial flesh in myriad ways, for which Uncle Sam has no answer, other than endless false flags, billion dollar color revolutions, psyops and bullying.
Western spydom can only berate China, while it steals wholesale petaflops of imperial governmental and industrial data, and its Ministry of State Security (MSS) is working closely with Russia’s FSB, for the good fight. NATO offers Africans its German based AFRICOM and Obama’s secret armies, to wreak death and destruction among the world’s weakest nations. Instead, China builds railroads, ports, hospitals and schools, while forgiving billions in sovereign debt that is owed by the great continent’s poorest. America is reduced to pathetically sending a destroyer into China’s Nansha archipelago waters, a brazen insult to President Xi, only five weeks after his state visit and private meetings with Obama in the White House. This, while the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) navy furiously builds artificial islands, 3km runways, lighthouses and living quarters there. NATO spends billions trying to overthrow legitimate, citizen supported governments, assassinating or deposing leaders, and China responds by constructing tens of thousands of low income apartments in Venezuela and signing trade deals and currency swaps with the Ukraine, or what’s left of it.
In any case, the white hat-black hat method of persuasion has a long and illustrious history, because it often succeeds, by playing on the tendencies of the human condition: the innate desire for acceptance and redemption. Whether you are business owners trying to close a deal, cops needing valuable information to track a lead, or are Xi and Putin trying to change the world order, for the betterment of all humanity, this good guy-bad guy gambit often gets results. So, instead of wishing the impossible, that Baba Beijing go against their longstanding way of doing diplomacy, let’s cheer on Putin’s Slavic thunderbolts and Xi’s asymmetrical switchblades, because they are both stabbing deeply into the West’s imperial heart of darkness.
Want a fun, low cost honorary degree in Chinese Studies? Jeff’s book, 44 Days, will have you laughing while learning and becoming an expert on all things Middle Kingdom. If you live in China, buy it on the 44 Days website, clicking on either Print Book, Ebook or Color Ebook
The Big Picture in terms of the Russian economy is still a catastrophe: If you don’t have the means of investing your sovereign currency into your economy to build up real productive assets – the situation becomes ridiculous. Does Russia really want to be a resource appandage to other nations? The Russian central bank behaves like it is a part of Nato and or the Washington Consensus. It refuses to credit the Russian economy, gave up on regulating the ruble exchange rate and its leadership even receives international prizes for its traitorous monetary policy. It is very much like wanting to cross a desert by not accounting for food or water and hoping other people will miraculously show up to give you what you need (foreign investment). This stupidity is hard to bear – it just boggles the mind. Glazyiev and Khazin seem to be the only competent economists in the whole of Russia who even care.
Saker, how can we talk about strategies/politics and so on if the main component is missing?
A spot on commentary you make. Who controls the money power, the creation of a nations money, controls the nation. Russia’s central bank operates similar to the Federal Reserve does in the US. It is private, essentially, issuing Russia’s money by keystroke through the issuance of debt. Loans are made, even to the government and currency is created through electronic deposits. This allows the central bank to decide how much money they wish to issue to the nation. Russia must take control of it’s central bank, making it a public rather than private institution. Russia will then become sovereign in so far as money creation is concerned. The Russian Treasury, or whatever you wish to name it, can then issue money by spending directly into the economy to serve the best interests of the nation and public purpose. Until this step is taken Russia exists as a vassal serving the interests of private banking. Fractional reserve lending at interest allows interests not concerned with the best interests of the Russian state and its people to control the economy and government. Russia is a sovereign, it must begin to act as one. As should the US, EU and all nations. Otherwise we’ll all be nothing more than debt slaves; serfs serving the criminal elite.
It’s because the west vs, Russia thing is a also dichotomy. Open up your eyes and you will see that there is more than meets the eye. Washington and Moscow work together.
It’s a bit like the fake right vs. left narrative at the national level.
Wall Street has skyrocketed since the Obama/Putin meeting in New York, with their meeting marking precisely the beginning of the massive rally.
Does it look like international finance is worried about its interests in the Middle East?
That was supposed to be “fake dichotomy”.
Charles Fasola, I have been looking for you, to correct your impression of Ellen Brown, which I read on another thread. You said:
“Ms. Brown and her public banking concept is another dead-end. It is the same old banking system packaged in another way. She simply has no concept as to what money is and how it can and should be created, so that it can be spent/issued directly into the real productive economy. Money creation should benefit public purpose not enrich a small elite class who presently control the monetary system. Central Banks are not government entities. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Russia, the BIS are private institutions controlled by powerful individuals whose purpose is surely not to benefit the sovereign or its citizens. The power of money creation must be removed from their hands. To do so Central Banks need to first and foremost be nationalized; coupled with the end of the fractional reserve system for private banking.”
Charles, this is the 2nd time that I correct your understanding of Ellen Brown’s work. Doubtless you did not see my first comment, and you are unlikely to see this one since I have come upon it 6 days after you made it. I hope to carry my comment TO you as well as leaving it here.
Ellen Brown (and I) agree w all you say in your comment. You are bad-mouthing a powerful advocate of your own knowledge.
All 3 of us are against the private banking system, including the central bank. If you NATIONALIZE the private central banks, what do you get? PUBLIC banking. This is Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) applied. Michael Hudson has appeared at conferences w Ellen. If you want the govt to own the currently private system, as you say, then you want public banking– sovereign money.
On Amazon you can preview her books, Web of Debt & The Public Bank Solution, to correct your misconceptions regarding her work.
Globalresearch.ca carries Ellen’s articles about the IMF and more, if you use their search box, and you will find it goes beyond your own knowledge. An excerpt from http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-global-bankers-coup-bail-in-and-the-shadowy-financial-stability-board/5419698 :
“For three centuries, private international banking interests have brought governments in line by blocking them from issuing their own currencies and requiring them to borrow banker-issued “banknotes” instead. Political colonialism is now a thing of the past, but under the new FSB guidelines, nations could still be held in feudalistic subservience to foreign masters.
“Consider this scenario: the new FSB rules precipitate a massive global depression due to contraction of the money supply. XYZ country wakes up to the fact that all of this is unnecessary – that it could be creating its own money, freeing itself from the debt trap, rather than borrowing from bankers who create money on computer screens and charge interest for the privilege of borrowing it. But this realization comes too late: the boot descends and XYZ is crushed into line. National sovereignty has been abdicated to a private committee, with no say by the voters.
“The new bail-in rules were discussed in my last post here. They are edicts of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), an unelected body of central bankers and finance ministers headquartered in the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland Where did the FSB get these sweeping powers, and is its mandate legally enforceable?”
–News of conferences concerning enabling the ideas YOU express are at ellenbrown.com– including international news & conferences. There is some progress being made. Take a look please. PS Ellen advocates the State Banks, like N Dakota’s, not as a total solution, but because that is what’s possible TODAY within the Federal Reserve system, of which she is a powerful critic.
Thank you for your patience in reading this.
Ellen Brown endorses Pope (and Vatican by default)
See new headline and Catherine Austin Fitts comment on her website Solari.com
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-vatican-finances-apsa-idUSKCN0SS1RP20151103
[CAF Note: This report is important and interesting. I believe that the Vatican real estate interests in the US are historically deeply intertwined with laundering illegal monies and funding the black budget. At one point a member of the establishment communicated with me during my litigation with the federal government something that I interpreted as, “Don’t blame us, the Vatican made us do it.” Consequently, the idea that there are public statements questioning the goings on in the Vatican real estate portfolio is more than a curiosity.]
By Philip Pullella
Vatican financial investigators suspect a department of the Holy See which oversees real estate and investments was used in the past for possible money laundering, insider trading and market manipulation, according to a report seen by Reuters.
The information in the confidential document, which covers the period from 2000 to 2011, has been passed on to Italian and Swiss investigators for their checks because some activity tied to the accounts allegedly took place in these countries, a senior Vatican source said.
Continue Reading
The big picture for the Russian economy is not catastrophic. The provision of credit (or as the Russians say “emission” of money ) is something that can be done today, tomorrow or next week. People accord this issue way too much importance. meanwhile Russia’s economy is just fine, its long term future will not be decided by whether money is printed this year or next year.
Much more important, for Russia and its economy, is the behind the scenes battle that is preventing or delaying the emission of money. The outcome of this battle between the Russian Atlanticists and Eurasianists is what will determine the big picture of the Russian economy.
I disagree completly. Yes in the sense that money creation is a technical process and it can be done immediately. No, in the sense that everyday the Russian economy is subjected to a artificial “starvation” of its indigenous money supply. Everyday the economy isn’t funded is a day closer to economic dependency and loss of sovereignty. If you think being dependent on foreign currency is not catastrophic than I disagree. It’s a small window of opportunity to fund the technologies of the future and every chance you miss is another nail in your economic freedom and dependency on a foreign baba. In my opinion being dependent on a foreign owner is catastrophic – it’s loosing your freedom to develop your country in whichever direction you want. It’s almost like destroying your economic house and becoming a serf.
I’m starved of my indigenous money supply too. That’s a good way to put it.
Of course it’s endogenous money. My mistake – this may happen if you are writing a text in a foreign language… An edit function would be helpful.
Forgot to add the following part to my comment (“The Big Picture in terms of the Russian economy is still a catastrophe”).
You also see a thorough neoliberal indoctrination in all aspects of the population, as far as even into the consciousness of the society. Atomization of the society, the preferential treatment of capital instead of humans, homogenization of the society into mindless consumer bots (where you choose what you are on a daily basis, gender etc.), idiotization through changing public education (even the simplest societal relationships are not taught – like political economy) and so on.
The use of the language is also an indication how far the brainwashing has progressed. Even everyday terms are increasingly substituted for English words like “mayor” or market “trader”; Ден ТВ has some very good pieces on this subject.
I really think that the Crimean operation is a civilizational break for the Russian world. As before the global power structure (or call capitalist Empire) was busy destroying any concept of a Nation, I would even say everything that resembles a conscious human society, now Russians finally see globalization and its processes for what it really means: complete atomization of ones identity, losing your sovereignty and destruction of your people, if they resist. The USoA is just a tool in this context.
If you think about it, thousands of years of human struggle and this is what we got. Technology that could rid humanity of all undignified work, a “real” possibility to learn what this universe is all about without the fear how to survive the next day and still to this day humanity is chained to the illusion of wealth, numbers on a electronic checking account, insisting that the majority has to live as work slaves and a material life.
You are generalizing way too much. All this doom and catastrophe will not follow from the RCB, say, printing more money in june next year as opposed to two seconds ago, yesterday, last week today etc. Believe me, national economies are not transformed that quickly. There is plenty of time for the Russian government to act. Right now they need to fight on one front.
Also note that economies are not just funded from the printing of money. Export receipts from sales of Russian gas and oil also fund the economy and the enterprises in it. These funds can be put to the same purposes, for the time being, that any printed money would be put. Plus printing money does not mean it will be used for production, it might be used for consumption. So don’t assume that just printing money is the solution to Russia’s economic problems.
No it is not the only measure for fixing Russia’s economic problems but it is a fundamental part of the Russia’s economy.
It really depends on what Russia’s goals are. If Russia wants to be an appendage to other nations than there is nothing to criticize – everything is great and Nabulina is a cb star, deserving of her international cb recognition. If you want to build a Eurasian Union, a pole in a multi-polar world, Russia’s current economic policies are a catastrophe.
What is it that Russia really wants? Does it want to be a global leader in science, productive technologies, building cities, airplanes, ships, cosmic ships? Does it want to be bound like a dog on leash to the liberal fetish of budget and artificial monetary constraints? It’s like asking a giant to tiptoe to the tune of money elites (or ruski oligarchs for that matter) who do absolutely nothing than to be rentiers and parasites. Hell we live even in an age where everything is more and more automated for which you do need energy, material resources and a dwindling amount of human work so what is Russia waiting for? Another Soros who has the mercy to give it colored toilet paper so its people may start to live their lives? Russia’s current productive capacities are but a joke in comparison to what its full potential would look like. Trying to imitate the US to be a nation of consumer bots or being the worlds slave labor central as in China’s case won’t work.
(The Russian constitution even prohibits any formation of an ideology which absurd – Russia’s official ideology as recent as 2014 (there were other instances but for the sake of argument) was a capitalistic market-radicalism and globalism. Russia was content to be a part of a dollar system until, surprise, surprise, it had to learn that it could be economically blackmailed for defending its people in Crimea)
Here is the statement given by Nabiullina in from of the State Duma:
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/press/print.aspx?file=Press-center/Nabiullina_21102015.htm&pid=press&sid=ITM_18964
1. She admits the situation is not great but expects improvement by 2016.
2. She says that banks have shown a gradual recovery in their lending activities. Loans to the real economy grew at 7.5% for the last 9 months.
She does not have a mandate to “stabilise the ruble”. The market determines the value of the ruble as it is a free floating currency.
Russia India just announced massive deals such as buying 150 upgraded t50s possibly up to 300. Again saving the sukhoi company as it did with the su30mki which is the base for the 30sm 34 35 etc you see.
Past that the industry contracted 5% which is normal for sanctions + light war. Civil war destroys 25%yr I think Russia could have come out a lot worse.
It’s aerospace and air defense industry is secure due to mass orders by India China and soon Iran. What more to say? It’s the four main Buddhist kingdoms batting again.
Well now that the French are out they would get better jets. I still wonder who would have stood to gain from the French jets, just the increase would have meant someone gaining a $5 billion bribe on it. India also getting 3 nuclear subs.. on top of the 12 S400’s.. seems also missile boats with caliper missiles.. But at 8 mil a pop those are expensive and would cost more than what they destroy. I never knew Indonesia was ready to attack India when Pakistan did so these missile boats might be a warning to them. Also the US is going to help india build air craft carriers?????? Russia is already helping build 2 of them I think.. At least the Russian defense industry would not be lacking work for a decade now. The T15 wont be out until 2018 and maybe 2025 before anyone else seems them. Guess the T90 would have to do till then.
Oh, that’s real big fun to read it, besides building up confidence in the 2 statesmen that they are doing so well.
Thank you very much Jeff!
At first I was unsure if the Saker or Mr. Brown was speaking. But it was soon clear from the styles. Brown seems more of a flag-waver and the Saker more cautious.
Brown’s style cheers my heart and warms my bones but saker-like I am cautious. Two items bother me. 1. The Russian central bank and the rich who invest wherever they can make money; and at best are ambivalent regarding nationality. 2. According to Andrew Korybko’s analysis of hybrid wars, the empire is hidden behind multiple shields and therefore direct attacks just fuel the fire, burning only the cannon fodder.
Russian proverb: “Little thieves are hanged but great ones escape.” Literal translation: “The thief who stole an altyn (3 kopecks) is hung, and the one who stole a poltinnik (50 kopecks) is praised.”
A bit more specific but still relevant:
“The law locks up the man or woman
Who steals the goose off the common
But leaves the greater villain loose
Who steals the common from the goose.”
I agree that probably the biggest immediate problem for Russia is getting control of their money, specifically the central bank but once they do that we will see that there are other hurdles.
Korybko has some interesting things to say but I think he is orienting too much on one issue and treating it as more of a novelty than it actually is. The whole “Colour Revolution + Insurgency if it fails” has more continuity with past US policies than rupture. The history of Latin America has some examples.
Also, I think he is weak on the politics of stopping these things. He tends to criticize governments for paralyzed responses, which sounds like he’s advocating harsh crackdowns on “colour revolution” protesters–but such responses if not done pretty carefully tend to play into the takeover artists’ hands by creating violent incidents that can be played for outrage–and indeed, quite possibly violent incidents that really are outrageous. A secondary problem is that he tends to ignore the complicity of elites within the government; these governments tend not to be paralyzed purely by incompetence or fear, but by lack of co-operation within the government itself because the US has bought or otherwise co-opted players within it. The ironic thing is that what makes governments vulnerable to these US takeovers is to a fair extent precisely their previous co-operation with the empire’s agenda: A government with neoliberal policies is socially weak, because it has abdicated most of the positive functions of government in the name of “efficiency” or “entrepreneurialism” or whatever. Such a government cannot unite people, because at a practical level it is doing nothing for people that might create loyalty and at an emotional level it has no vision around which people can unite. The neoliberal mantra is “government is the problem, not the solution”. How hard can it be to create unrest when the government thinks like that? If “colour revolutionaries” come along with a vision of something different, recruitment is easy because the country has no vision to counter it–and that is true both at the popular level and at the level of elites, who under neoliberalism have nothing to be loyal to but money. So if you’ve given in already to the empire’s ideology, it’s not only bad for your country but it makes it easier for the empire to nobble you.
The way to stop a colour revolution is before it starts. Have an inclusive vision that benefits all the people and work hard at putting it into practice. (Well, a vision that benefits as many of the people as possible, anyway) Then, when colour revolutionaries come trying to stir up unrest, there will be a social fabric, a lot of people with reasons both of personal benefit and of spirit to say “You bastards! No way are you taking my country away!”
Consider Venezuela. The US pours millions of dollars a year into Venezuela trying to destabilize it, and has a considerable backing from local comprador elite groups. And they are doing their best to “make the economy scream” as they did in Chile back in the 70s. So when Chavez died and the new leader wasn’t as strong and the election was close, they tried for a colour revolution. They had protests and blockades calling for a “Salida” (exit) of the government. They had violent incidents, which they tried hard to blame on the government. In the end it all petered out. One key reason was that the national guard and so on who kept a lid on were very disciplined and restrained; in the end it was very hard not to notice that more of the shooting and destruction was being done by the demonstrators than by the authorities. But the other was that the counter-demonstrations were consistently bigger than the colour revolutionaries’ demonstrations. The people didn’t want this stuff, they were organized, and they made themselves heard. The authorities never really put down the colour revolution demonstrations. They didn’t allow them to march to the presidential palace, but they let them march and they let them set up in intersections and block traffic and they let them sit there and rot for months, gradually petering out as it became clear they were going nowhere and just being a nuisance. Eventually they finally took advantage of violence done by the colour revolution folks to clear those out, but by that time there were just a few die-hards and paid provocateurs left; there was no outrage to trigger any insurgency. But again, the authorities were in a position to take a relatively soft approach because they had a strong popular base backing them up.
Very right there on the need to stop the Color Revolutions “before” they get started.I see the problem as boiling down to three components in a nations society,”educational system”,”media”,and the “security services” (military,intelligence services,police forces).A key example,and the one that needs to be studied the most is Ukraine.Understanding (and correcting) mistakes made there are key to defeating further Color Revolutions.Over years the Ukrainian government allowed fascist ultra-nationalists freedom to infiltrate and subvert the educational system in the country.Which helped produce the maidan followers.They allowed foreign NGO’s and other elements to gain great influence in the nations media.An irony is that the “old dictatorial” Yanukovich government.Allowed far more “press freedom” than today’s “democratic” junta does in Ukraine.And allowing the security services to be subverted by foreign and fascist elements left the government without protection when it was needed the most.What you said about counter protests is also very important.The maidan supporters were 55% from West Ukraine,24% from Central Ukraine.And only 21% from the entire South and East of Ukraine.In the South and East, with almost half the nations population,the government had great support among the people.Support that was never mobilized to help it to survive.There was talk about doing that,but that’s it just talk.Had hundreds of thousands of pro-government supporters from those regions marched on Kiev to show their support.I believe history would have taken a different course.But no one seemed to want to believe the “unthinkable”.That the society could collapse that way.Well now we know it can.So there is no valid excuse today for another country’s leaders to be blind to that possibility.
I posted a comment below Dupes of Putin.. which has some relevance to these revolutions.. How Russia did it.. and also some comments on why some things were done. Its from the Russian perspective.. But by a nato officer as well.. The US never considers the cost to others of their revolutions only what they stand to gain, Russia is different and so are many other countries. Some will go a bit farther but the cost is always considered and not just the gains.
I can’t see the Ukrainian society you describe, subverted by neglect of Nazi infiltration.
I think this is no more true than to say the south-east was infiltrated and subverted by Russians.
The Ukraine was never de-Nazified after WWII. The north-west and the south-east fought on different sides then and they are still two countries forced into the same boundaries. The people you call victims of infiltration already shared the beliefs of the “infiltrators.” Poroshenko believes in ethnic cleansing. Can you listen to the “sit in the cellar” speech and doubt that? Can you listen to a mob chanting “Suitcase-Station-Russia” and doubt that they want the Donbass emptied? They haven’t picked up these attitudes from “infiltrators” they learned them at their mother’s knee.
Unfortunately, foreign-organized NGOs do not campaign under the banner “We’re going to take your country.” I think Putin is making good preemptive strikes. Exposing foreign-funded NGOs for what they are is a bloodless stroke, no smell of repression or propaganda, and touches a sentiment that is apolitical and ubiquitous. Great move.
Re-opening of indexed pensions was brilliant. Pensions were adjusted upwards for the second time in the year because inflation was higher than provided for when they were indexed at the beginning of the year. So many messages there! The safety net is sacred; we do not let our old people starve in the dark. We do not have to cut our budget; in fact we can find room for unanticipated increases. Our economy can weather whatever they throw at us. No “austerity” program will be given house room here. We are stronger than they thought in many ways: military, economy, values.
PLG, an excellent contribution. I can only add that Western NGOs must be ruthlessly policed, and the arrogant, dictating, supremacist and subversive ones ejected and local compradores treated as traitors. US ‘diplomats’ need to be similarly policed and any interfering in any way in local politics immediately expelled, and the same with Western and UN officials who work for the Empire. In fact, until the West agrees to share the planet with non-Western peoples, I’d stay well away, and instead work to establish strong links between non-Western countries and populations. Local compradores MUST be crushed, one way or another. Private Central Banks controlled by the elite hyper-parasites are simply insane. No country that allows the global parasite caste to control its money is independent in any meaningful sense.
Jeff,
The Eurasian landmass, and indeed, the whole world is looking at this Putin and Xi combination (such a combination could be seen earlier, when Stalin and Mao were leading their countries in 1940s, though the world was quite different then).
I would like to add that, Nazarbayev and Khamenei have been playing very crucial role for ultimate success of Putin-Xi ‘joint venture’ of freeing the mankind from the evil dark forces of AngloZionist plutocracy.
Thank you, Saker, for the Valdai link. I look forward to listening to it.
Its Jeff Brown’s article on The Saker site – not the Saker……
Dupes of Putin?
“The conquest of the Crimea by Russia, an example of non-kinetic conquest” by Lieutenant-Colonel Patrick Vermer, Revue Militaire Belge [Belgian Military Review], December 2014
A refreshing new interpretation of Russia’s Information War by a Lieutenant Colonel with responsibility for ‘Info Ops’ in the Belgian Army holds open the possibility that we all have been ‘dupes of Putin,’ both those of us who have sought to explain the Russian position to the world and those in the anti-Putin, anti-Russian camp
Campaign? This will astonish some. Without combat, how can one speak of a military campaign? How can you qualify as military a campaign which in the end amounted to deployment of troops and some administrative movements?
However, that is precisely what it was: the implementation of military assets for the purpose of meeting political objectives. An approach which meets the definition of war according to Clausewitz. Because without deploying troops, there is no visibility of conquest and of possession of the territory. The deployment of forces did not give rise to unleashing of violence but led to a perfect victory as defined by Sun Tzu: “The art of war is to subjugate the enemy without combat.”
This ‘combat’ was one of perception and influence. It was played out not on the physical terrain but on the ‘information’ platform in the broad sense of the term using information operations (or Info Ops).
First example: the large scale manoeuvers carried out by the Russian Army in February in the Center and West of Russia. Although this concerns activities relating to branches 3 and 7 (operations and training), these activities were certainly coordinated by Info Ops. Their objective was to dissuade any Western intervention in the Ukrainian theater. The expected effect was to reduce Western reaction to a minimum without violating the borders.
Locally, the deployment of paramilitary troops, hooded, without distinctive insignias but equipped with modern arms also participated in the effort. The presence of these troops meets two distinct objectives: on the one hand, to demonstrate the determination of Russia to support the pro-annexation aspirations of the local population and, on the other hand, to maintain for Russian authorities an image of no direct intervention by plaining on the uncertain origin of these troops.
Prometeus > Le Ruscino
Was Yanokovich’s incompetence arranged to bloodlessly take back Crimea which should never ever have been Ukrainian?”
The main, real reason behind Yanokovich’s incompetence, was that the Russians new in advance, what the USA had planned for Ukraine. If the USA weren’t be able the oust Yanokovich the way they did, the plan was a “Syrian Scenario” for Ukraine. USA had somewhere about 50.000 Ukrainian nationalists and mercenaries, well armed and equipped, many of them combat hardened in previous NATO-wars. And the USA had enough Ukrainian generals on their payroll, so that a great number of the Ukrainian regular army would switch sides too.
In the end, this would have become an butcherly Ukrainian civil war, where all of Ukraine would have went to hell. See what is left of Syria after 4 years.
The Russians new of this scenario in advance, so they adapted their strategy:
1. Take Crimea “democratically” without a shot
2. Build an “Anti-Ukraine” in Donbas, hold it in Ukraine as a part of it and by this block any movement of Ukraine towards NATO or EU.
Mission accomplished.
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/dupes-putin/ri10911
When this stops building castles in the air and gets specific, it gets it wrong.
Just for starters — if the US had 50,000 trained and battle-hardened Ukrainian troops, where are they hiding them and why did they not deploy them?
And if the US had so many Ukrainian generals on the payroll ready to switch sides — go over to the insurgency? Is there a third “side” we haven’t heard of?
Russia is China’s shield. And things must be that way, because in the end the only wy to defeat Western Imperialism will be by breaking its economic stranglehold on the world. Russia cannot do this, but China can. On the other hand the only way to break that economic stranglehold is to break the West’s military dominance. China cannot do this, but Russia can. So Russia and China are like the keys to a door with tow locks. Each is necessary to open it.
As China pulls the economic rug from under the West’s feet it needs Russia to keep it from being bludgeoned by NATO.
Yes! Well said!
I like to think of it as Russian stick and Chinese carrot. Moscow is the enforcer, and Beijing the banker, firing on all cylinders together to break through the Western stranglehold.
China’s president has, so far, been far more circumspect and diplomatic than Putin in facing the West. But then again, China has yet to face a head-on collision like Ukraine.
Beijing however is pretty set about its “core interests” and defending them. In Malaysia (where Asean defense ministers are now meeting with American and Chinese counterparts) its ambassador Mr Huang declared that China would defend its interests when threatened, when he went down to Chinatown where ethnic-majority protesters were threatening to storm the place in mid-September.
Given that China’s diplomats wouldn’t speak out of place, and certainly wouldn’t without authorization, was the message just for the locals, or the American embassy was also listening in?
The South China Sea issue has been coming to a boil since Kerry visited Beijing and was stonewalled.
Erdo wants a divorce.. So aint putting out then well kick the freeloader out.. Russia implements sanctions on Turkey…
Erdogan declared that he will not call on Putin anymore. Erdo gets a cut off significant sums for the human smuggling, wheat, oil, antiquities and flour trade.
Its first countermeasure was to stop issuing transit passage documents to Turkish trucks carrying Turkey’s exports to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Mongolia.
Russia’s successive restrictive measures in addition to the new one imposed on Turkey’s transit trade has simply declared that it has accepted Turkey’s challenges. Gazprom turned down a Turkish request for an additional 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas for 2016.
Gazprom piled up countermeasures by declaring that it has cut by half the capacity of the proposed $16 billion Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline project and that it may even postpone the implementation of the project by one year.
Salih Muslim, the co-chair of Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the most powerful of the armed groups fighting IS, visited Moscow, and on Oct. 9, he met with Putin’s Middle East envoy and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. PYD delegation led by PYD Co-chair Asya Abdullah participated in the conference held in Moscow on “The Perspectives of Establishing an International Anti-IS Coalition.”
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-russia-syria-isis-economic-threats.html#
It really amazes m to see how people are screeching for the Russian central bank to “stabilise the ruble”
The ruble is a free-floating currency. It was de-pegged from the USD. This was a bold and positive decision made by the Russian government.
What Glazyev wants to do is re-peg the ruble to the dollar which will require capital controls. There are trade-offs to a fixed exchange rate vs free float.
It would seem the Russian government (rightly) thinks free float is better. This is from their official news portal:
Floating policy gives shelter to battered Russia: http://rbth.com/business/2014/11/17/early_shift_to_free-floating_policy_gives_shelter_to_battered_russia_41459.html
You are quite right Serbian Girl. Floating the ruble is what saved Russia last december when the ruble was under attack. I do agree with critics who say that the RCB raised rates too high and kept them there too long in response. Also Glaziev is right when he says the RCB’s single minded focus on inflation is misguided. The central bank needs to increase the money supply and reduce interest rates so that Russian business can borrow domestically instead of being forced into the international capital markets where rates are lower. It is because Russian businesses (even state owned ones) borrow in USD and Euros that they must keep their reserve funds in USD & Euro. So Glaziev is right on that point.
Then there is the quite separate issue of what Putin should do in response. Should he force the RCB’s hand by firing Nabuillina and appointing Glaziev (or someone who agrees with him)? This is a political question. Taking on the RCB now is probably not a good idea. Russia needs to first stabilize the international situation then take on the Atlanticists within. I trust Putin knows what he is doing. Everything he has done to date is proof of that.
Letting the ruble float freely invites all vultures in to gamble on the currency market. It opens it to all kinds of manipulation, this in turn will make it harder to plan any long term operation for all economic actors inside the country which are impacted by this policy. Yes you don’t have to spend your precious dollar reserve fund to support your currency but this is a stupid policy to begin with. Currency controls, most importantly stopping vultures banks from borrowing ruble to smash them onto the currency market, are important. A peg can be enforced at will because there are no big amounts of ruble outside of the control of the cb. Take a look at China or at the Asian crisis in 1997 all countries which enforced currency controls despite the recommendation of the IMF.
This is another argument not to be dependent on a foreign currency, the so called “investment” turns into a currency crisis every time the FED raises its rate.
Russia sits on vast resources, a well educated population and everything the Russian government can think of is foreign “investment”? Russia would have lost all its wars in its past with this kind of attitude. Being dependent on a piece of colored paper is insane.
Floating the ruble did save Russia last year. If they had had to defend it they would have lost their reserves. Those reserves are not Putin’s or the RCB’s property to spend as frivolously as they wish. paying off western vultures. Whether the ruble was floated or not the vultures would have come, because of the combination of falling oil prices and Western economic attack. They came, they attacked and Russia kept its reserves.
Some degree of capital controls would be good. As SG says below Russia is using “soft” capital controls. A tax on frequency and amount of transfers may also be useful. But remember, the bulk of capital flight has been Russian firms paying of their dollar and euro denominated debt. You don’t want to get in the way of that, if you are the Russian govt.
China is a special case, the scale of their economy, their reserves, and their exports allows them to do as they please from a currency perspective.
Foreign investment is not just about the finance but also the expertise, experience and technology it brings. Don’t recreate the wheel if you don’t have to! The danger is erosion of sovereignty. I don’t see that as an issue with Putin in charge.
China also utilized the foreign investment route in the 1990’s via joint ventures as Russia has been doing, before the sanctions.
Letting the ruble float freely invites all vultures into gambling on the currency market. It opens it to all kinds of manipulation, this in turn will make it harder to plan any long term operation for all economic actors inside the country which are impacted by this policy. Yes you don’t have to spend your precious dollar reserve fund to support your currency but this is a stupid policy to begin with. Currency controls, most importantly stopping vulture banks from borrowing ruble to smash them onto the currency market, are important. A peg can be enforced at will because there are no big amounts of ruble outside of the control of the cb. Take a look at China or at the Asian crisis in 1997 all countries which enforced currency controls despite the recommendation of the IMF.
This is another argument not to be dependent on a foreign currency, the so called “investment” turns into a currency crisis every time the FED raises its rate.
Russia sits on vast amounts of resources, a well educated population and everything the Russian government can think of is foreign “investment”? Russia would have lost all its wars in its past with this kind of attitude. Being dependent on a piece of colored paper is insane.
If full-blown capital controls are the answer, why has Putin pledged he will not re-introduce them?
Russia already has “soft” capital controls. They are already monitoring the FX transactions and are forcing exporters to buy rubles
Since you mention the Asian crisis, only Malaysia introduced capital controls. The other Asian countries recovered without them.
A few months ago, Belarus had to relax their capital controls as they didn’t really work out.
There are pros and cons to capital controls.
Here is one of Glazyev’s speeches (Russian) where he is arguing why a free float exchange rate is detrimental to the Russian economy (11:42):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnlHThCO1zE
Well, China did issue a pretty direct statement about triggering unforseen incidents in response to the US warship trip around the new islands, I thought that was a pretty direct threat myself .. China becoming more assertive.
Regards, Shyaku.
Hi Jeff ! I’ve been wondering when your essays would come back…this is a great article because it really is a down to earth, american style writing that is very easy to understand…I grew up on Popeye cartoons….what would a European, Russian or Asian think of it…
Spinach of all things that Popeye used to eat…yuck….and he’s so skinny except for ridiculous fore arms and legs…
I hope he’s not supposed to be a Putin look alike ?
And Xi, yes, a very handsome man and such an elegant wife…wow.
And thanks for Mao discription, I was very young and ignorant when he was talked about here in the west…I thought he was a monster commie…that’s all I knew about him. Its good to hear that he was the real thing, what we all aspire for now.
Dear Jeff,
Thank you again for your great insights.
You are right Black Hat/White Hat or Bad Cop/Good cop – they go hand in hand. Different styles and methods – same results.
I always think you know when you have really gone too far with the insults or aggressions towards China – when their language becomes quite strong – as I noticed with the USA sending their navy to the South China Sea – the Chinese response has been quite firm back – no mucking around on this issue.
Rgds,
Veritas
It is the great game of team gangster (Russia) and prostitute (China) against the Western threat! Lol