By Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog
The world does not need a new cold war, or does it?
The Cold War started before the hot war was over. It was put into motion when America dropped the ‘bomb’ and Stalin declared that the USSR should ramp up its efforts to have this technology as soon as possible. And even though the Soviet Atomic Bomb Project was initiated in 1942, the first Soviet test was conducted in 1949, four years after Hiroshima.
The blame here is not on Stalin. After all, if Stalin did not take this ‘pre-emptive’ move, the West was planning to take him down next. It’s quite likely that Stalin and the USSR were saved from a Western invasion by the nukes they developed.
If the USA had the wisdom to learn from history, it should have realized that the moment it revealed to the rest of the world that it has a new cutting-edge super weapon, a rival will come and demand to have the same. In retrospect therefore, the ‘Manhattan Project’ was the real underlying trigger point for initiating the Cold War.
With both the US and the USSR, and later on Britain and France and other nations becoming nuclear powers, overtly or secretively, the deterring effect of a major direct confrontation between superpowers became obvious, though not strong enough to prevent major regional conventional proxy and hybrid wars all over the globe.
Nations of the Middle East together with Korea, Vietnam and many others, cannot claim any benefit from the deterring effect of the Cold War, but perhaps the USA, Europe (including Russia) and even Cuba can.
Unlike the story that the West wishes to peddle to the rest of the world, America did not win the Cold War neither did the USSR lose it. In reality, this was a negotiated agreement that happened prior to the breakup of the USSR; not afterwards.
With all the fear, tension, nuclear pollution, waste and plundering of resources that the Cold War generated, the world community has by-and-large won it with flying colours. It did stop WWIII from eventuating and definitely did not allow for more A-Bombs to be dropped on more cities after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Upon the breakup of the USSR, the United States had an opportunity to change direction and embark on a trajectory of demonstrating good leadership and innovation in the international community. Instead it set about promoting and installing a self-declared New-World Order that rendered the USA the sole superpower, and at all costs, ensured it stayed that way by whatever means necessary.
Nearly thirty years on, there is definitely a new cold war underway even though no one wants to give it this name. The encroachment of NATO into Eastern Europe and stationing missiles in former Warsaw Pact countries, which resulted in the development of hypersonic Russian weapons, followed by America’s unilateral cancelation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, China’s home-built aircraft carriers, not to mention fighter jets, state-of-the art weaponry and rising tension in the South China Sea are all indicative of a new cold war irrespective what name the media and politicians want to give it.
Enter COVID-19.
I will not argue for or against the numerous theories that make different readings about its nature, scope, extent of danger and what mileage some parties are allegedly trying to achieve from it. COVID-19 however did expose a previously unseen and unspoken-about form of cold wars; the industrial dependence war.
Growing up in the Middle East in the 1960’s, I clearly remember how the then Egyptian President Nasser took great pride in industrializing Egypt. As a matter of fact, when Egypt built its car-assembly plant under license from Italian manufacturer Fiat, the brand name given to Egyptian product was Nasr; meaning victory.
On a much larger scale of course, who could forget the insatiable desire for Chairman Mao to industrialize China? I remember going to a Chinese industrial expo in Beirut in 1973. The manufacturing of heavy machinery in China was still in its infancy, but the Chinese officials manning the expo, as well as local supporters of Communist China, could not hide their broad smiles and feelings of pride and rejoice seeing the Chinese achievements.
And long before any of this, the manner in which European nations were able to conquer the rest of the world and turn it into colonies was because Europe was technologically advanced and industrialized; otherwise nations like Britain and the Netherlands would have never been able to conquer and rule much larger nations like India and Indonesia.
Presently whilst it is still a guarantee of quality to see the words ‘Made in Germany’ on a manufactured product, there was a time not long ago when similar assurance came from labels such as ‘Made in England’, or ‘Made in Great Britain’.
Isn’t this what the industrial revolution was all about, or has the world forgotten?
When Asian products began to appear in the Western markets, their quality was shockingly inferior. They were competing on price and price only. Japan took the lead, and in a short time produced high quality goods, especially in the areas of photography, sound equipment and motor vehicles; and the rest is history.
The West often ridicules ‘totalitarian regimes’ and advocates the principles of capitalism, private enterprise, and recently globalism. These principles, alongside democracy, are considered sacrosanct. Criticizing them is tantamount to blasphemy and reflects tendencies of Communism and even Fascism.
For fairness, for as long as the Western nations had viable economies that were underpinned by highly developed industrial prowess, the above doctrines proved to be successful. However, it seems that the initial efforts behind the Western rise were forgotten and that Westerners in general expect on-going success to come effortlessly.
Western manufacturers were eventually unable to compete, and many of them either closed down or moved their manufacturing base to Asia.
The model that the West developed over the last three decades or so was structured on turning its economy into one that is based on finance and service. In almost no time at all, the concept of manufacturing took a backstep and was regarded as something that only developing nations need to do in order to develop their own economies. This in fact reflects a Western covert arrogant elitist supremist vision of manufacturing as being tantamount to slavery; something that should only be done in foreign cheap labour camps. And a new type of slavery did develop indeed. Sports shoes sold in the West for $200 a pair were manufactured in sweat shops in Asia by workers paid around $2 a day.
Western industrialists were drawn to the benefits of paying for manufacturing in Yuans and Rupees and selling the goods in Green Backs. And when an imported T-shirt bought from Asia for $1 gets sold in the West for $20, it makes its own humble contribution to the national economy, and it is little wonder therefore as to why Western governments were joyful to partake in the spoils, after all, such arrangements produced high GDP’s, albeit that they were not based on actual domestic productivity.
Once again, enter COVID-19.
All of a sudden, the West found that it was crippled and unable to provide its citizens with basic hygiene necessities any faster that it could import them from China. But importation meant having to compete with other importers, and ‘begging’ suppliers for priority status, and when all failed, shipments going to other clients were confiscated and hijacked.
In an instant, the Western economic giant found itself in dire need of the manufactured goods it had considered itself too superior to produce.
Unable to produce ventilators, unable to provide facial masks for its citizens; the repercussions of the downfall of Western de-industrialization have never before been made so obvious for all to see.
And when President Trump enacted the Defense Production Act to demand that 3M should produce more masks, the production had to be done in 3M’s factories in China. How ridiculous is this!
These revelations certainly indicate that the West may not only be dependent on China for imports of the above. Certainly, this should shock the West into urgently examining the multi-faceted vulnerable position it has put itself in.
COVID-19 has exposed the West as a paper tiger with dependence on China on multiple levels. But the real questions to ask are the ones that haven’t yet surfaced.
What other vital supplies does the West depend on China for? And if the West was unable to deal with COVID-19 -related supplies in peacetime, how will it be able to deal with supplying its citizens with basic needs in wartime?
What about food security? What about pharmaceutical security?
Fleets, aircraft carriers, air-forces and off-shore military bases do not put food on the tables of citizens in wartime.
And speaking of military hardware, how do we know for certain whether or not Western military hardware does not use imported components? After all, even in peacetime, the USA buys Russian-made rockets to put satellites into orbit because it is unable to manufacture its own. But what other simple commodities is America no longer able to produce? This begs the question of what would America have to rely on for China in wartime? Socks? Blankets?
What is interesting to note here is that whilst the West was scrambling to import its needed supplies from China, almost overnight Russia was able to reach self-sufficiency and even be able to extend aid to other nations. And when Italy was expecting to receive such aid from its EU and NATO allies, those allies were too inept to even be able to look after themselves, and the aid ended up coming from Russia. Russian aid included the USA, with little appreciation from the receiver.
With free economy and free enterprise considered sacred in the dictionary of Western modus operandi, Western governments can neither fill in the missing industrial gap nor coerce private companies to do so. Will the West reflect on where they went wrong with their once successful model? Such self-examination is unlikely to happen because any Western political party that evaluates and proposes solutions to this failure will be accused of Socialism and even Fascism. One of the biggest ironies here is that Western political rivals are only interested in making political scores against each other; scores that can get them elected. They are not at all necessarily interested in what is good for their nations.
The world certainly does not need a new cold war, but the West is unknowingly deeply engaged in one already. If lessons are to be learnt is for the future to reveal. COVID-19 did not trigger a war. It did however expose the reality of an existing and on-going war, a cold war, a war no one paid much attention to before, one not based on buildup of military arsenals, but rather one of industrial dependence; a war the West has already lost to China.
If there was an impenetrable wall
1. What would the U.S., China be able to build?
2. Who would be able to make up their gap first?
Food
Both China and the U.S. would be able to either produce or import food from non-aligned countries not participating in the blockade. Even Yemen the most mercilessly deprived country in modern times gets some food imports. China would be able to import from Russia and South America for starters and the U.S. has at least as many options.
Electronics
Here is where it gets interesting because this is the backbone of manufacturing and Defense needs.
I think China would have an initial advantage here. They already produce much of our electronics and develop their own. They have lots of good SW developers too. I’m not even certain we could still manufacture the Intellectual Property that we own on a large scale. We would have to re-discover how to create large scale foundries.
Pharma?
I know very little about this but hey I’m willing to admit this :-)
I know a little bit about electronics because I’m in the Software Industry and I’ve seen the evolution of Hardware and circuitry outsourcing over 30yrs. Not claiming to be an expert there either but not a total fool, I knew co-workers who talked about foundries at IBM and Lucent when it was AT&T shutdown. Don’t know anyone at Intel or AMD, I don’t know where their manufacturing is located, just making the point that building this stuff on a large scale is actually pretty hard and this is just one component, not even discussing batteries, alloys, and other mechanical components (knowledge vaporizes beyond knowing we need it).
Knowledge alone does not produce understanding but I can tell you this. The US has factories that produce weapons of mass destruction in very high quantities. And just like after WW2 these factories can be converted into factories that can produce durable goods for our own nation.
Our nation is rapidly falling into a depression where both blue and white collar workers in large numbers will be unemployed. I suspect we will be retraining these people in the industrial trades to rapidly rebuild our industrial base and our infrastructure; like roads, bridges, utilities, and water systems. Don’t under estimate this countries ability to rebuild rapidly. We have plenty of food which is something most countries don’t have so people won’t be starving during the rebuilding process.
Every industrial nation can provide durable goods to the own people if demanded…It would only take a few weeks for the factories to start produce! But there is a big problem if the war gets hot..The nukes soon wipes out all produktion plants and and the fires and dust destroy every possibility to feed the people! And this is the reason why a global war with China, USA, EU and Russia involved will not happen! It’s suicide to start a global war, there is no place to hide except for a bunker deep down…Not that funny!
Don’t under estimate this countries ability to rebuild rapidly.
Don’t overestimate the US’s ability to rebuild rapidly. Yes, people can be retrained to manufacture things. But who will do the retraining? In normal industry, the best trainers are the workers in that industry. What does the US do if there are no workers in the first place? Answer: learn painfully by trial and error — a lot of error and a lot of time. The US could rebuild its manufacturing base, but I think it will take decades. Where will China be by then?
In order to rapidly rebuild its manufacturing capabilities, the US may have to re-initiate Operation Paperclip:
hire (or capture) German engineers and technicians.
Don’t make the mistake of wrapping yourself in the flag or America first,it would take years to rebuild this country for those manufacturing place’s making all those wonderful weapons to kill people and fatten the pockets of those and the American politicians will remain if they produced nothing else
.Then we have a very untrained work force who fails to really care to learn or to work,we own a construction company and in the last year and a half we have gone thru over 125 people just trying to put together a work force will won’t come to work on a regular basis,aren’t hung over or on some drug or another, and all other companies in the trade are suffering from the same disease.Now this begin in 1980 which is almost 40 years ago and if you think you can turn around on a dime you live in a state of delusion for it ain’t going to happen..
I’ve heard such horror stories, but they are far between. Could you please elaborate on the workforce problem in the west.
I worked (as a summer job) in a German owned car/aeroplane seat factory late 90’s, early 2000’s, and i noticed that almost all off the workers were either Yugo’s, Chinese or Vietnamese with the odd Palestinian. The Canadian workers consisted of no more than 1-2%, all nearly retired people. I thought how odd, where are all of the Canadian youth, turns out they were all out getting business or humanities degrees.
George, let me guess: they are all trying to make it in arts while serving coffee and donuts at Tim’s or Mickedee’s. In the MED’ all of them left and went north to work for peanuts while competing with the so called “war escapees”.
You are mistaken regarding electronics in at least a couple of ways. Chip design software (used by the Chinese and everyone) comes from American Companies Cadence Design Systems, and Synopsys. The foundries (including China) buy their equipment from American companies, Applied Materials, LAM Research, and KLA Corp.
The Chinese can develop theIr own, but it won’t be easy.
Steve, yes and no. Have you checked where are these components manufactured? Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and all the flavors of Chinese. I am guessing that if things get hot, American owners won’t be allowed to remove anything. All designs have already been copied (stolen aka re-engineered) already. In the end all the transport ships can be sunk, oops! Also, we know about the tricks up the US sleeves like unfortunate tsunamis, earthquakes and so forth. On the other hand half of the US can be sunk if the Earth cracks “Andreas fault?”get hit with “nasty toys”. Let me remind you of the war “considered a Myth” between the Greeks living on Gea and the Greeks of Atlantida.
One Map, 1:14 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww0R9fBSzIA
Another Map, 0:10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YkrXqSMaRA
The result of that war is under water 1:29 Including Indian and Pacific Oceans
Well, we could be looking at the same end.
Those orthogonal structures are suspiciously “man” made. They are huge. They can be seen with greater detail in other sources. I’ve checked usa oceanogeafic survey and they are there too. Anyone knows other oceanografic survey, russian for example, that can be used to inspect that area? multiple sources would diminish chances of data contamination or satellite perk.
As shown in this article, Washington is softening up Americans for a hot war with China:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/02/preparing-masses-for-hot-war-with-china.html
If China does not “toe America’s line in the sand”, Washington and, in particular, the Pentagon, is preparing itself for a hot war with China with the ultimate goal of reclaiming its post-World War II global preeminence despite its protestations that it does not seek conflict with the world’s most populous nation.
On the plus side, The US initiating a hot war with China might be the quickest way they’ve come up with yet to permanently end the empire. Rest assured, they’d only do it with the express approval of the AZ’s running things, so their longer term agenda would likely be suspect as well. As in, crashing the US dollar so that a new global currency could be rolled out, and possibly abandoning the US as the primary host country for their parasitic efforts in the aftermath. The US being essentially just a shell corporation now, as it is.
Either way, returning to any semblance of post-WWII preeminence – itself entirely a product of good fortune and geography – especially by resorting to the return of gunboat diplomacy, is a mere pipe dream.
Beautiful text with excellent observations, spot on. A few years ago, I gave my view of the situation in he west: slowly sliding to Medieval, or even Dark Ages. Because it was clearly visible that ignorance was taking over. Inertia from good times was powerful, so many things looked better than they really were. My family moved to Canada in 1995, from former Yugoslavia, Serbia. The standard of living was way better in Toronto, than in Belgrade, for sure. However, when one looked below the surface, the only differences were reliable and cheap supply of energy – heating gas, cheap electricity, and ever cheaper international phone calls. And of source, the subway, underground train, metro. Everything else was no better or was even slightly worse than back home. We had cars, color TVs, summer vacations on Adriatic and abroad. I am not mentioning free education and health care, that was something people from Yugoslavia and former Warsaw Pact simply took for granted. That is typical for eastern European emigrants – taking all good things from home for granted, and only seeing what is better, or seems better in the west. Better turned to be – fancier and/or more luxurious. My kids were to young for school, but we somehow learned about elementary and secondary school situation. Everybody I know from Yugoslavia was thinking the same thing – this (education) is bad here, could we somehow manage to send kids back home, for schooling, maybe, support them from here, and after high school perhaps bring them back here for the University? It remained a dream. Our children went to school here, good marks and all, but we saw the poor shape of the education system. When we talked about that, some of us would say “Yeah, it is all true, poor schools, but look at this country (Canada) , then look at what we left home:
which one looks better, ha? well, home we left war, at the time when kids were of school age, there was another war, NATO vs Serbia, 78 day bombing with depleted uranium and cassette bombs… Interesting, in every false flag in Libya, Syria, NATO and US always blame the opposite side for inhuman use of cassette bombs… We hunkered down and of course stayed here, the land of milk and honey. What made us see the situation better than it was is our employment. Somehow, most of our people were well paid, good health benefits, 4 week vacation or more, so it looked almost as before. Well, most of us arrived here with 10-15 years of professional experience, which made us good candidates for getting pizza delivery jobs. Slowly, step by step, within two years we all kind of got to social level similar to what we left (before wars). We did realize soon how local people ( we used terms English or Canadian ) possessed very limited knowledge of what they were doing. Don’t get me wrong, they were not stupid, lazy or evil, most of them, like anywhere. They just did not know things. We quickly learned not to offend project and business managers by revealing how much they did not know. See, to be a good organizer of things, you need to be smart and have disciplined work force which would do as told. And it did work somehow. But most technical and knowledge based decisions and things were done by immigrants, especially eastern Europeans. Chinese, most of them, were very knowledgeable and learned, but most of them refused to think and simply followed the orders, which worked well for the management. Until it did not, when unexpected situations happened. Very few Indo/Pakistani good experts were around, but lots of not so qualified people on decent positions,in spite of propaganda wants us to believe. Significant exception was Iranians. There were not too many of them, but I never met an Iranian who was not very capable in practice, with all necessary education and learned approach to problems at work.
That was what was easily observable. Symptoms, not yet diagnosis. People may have high fever for many different reasons which are not flu viruses and bad bacteria. Then acute bursts of disease started occurring. About ten years ago, Toronto wanted to renew street car fleet (trams). No company in USA was able to do that, not many of them in European Union, either. Then a national pride, Bombardier (known for dash and De Haviland aircraft) was selected to do the work. Huge contract, 5-6 years. It turned out that they stopped producing anything years ago. No problem, we are Canadians and we have the best everything. A plant was re-opened i Thunder Bay, alas, no qualified workers. Oh well, a street car is ancient technology, from 19th century, we are sophisticated economy, nano technologies, Nortel and cell phones, how difficult it can be to built a street car? Today, more than 10 years since it all started, only a portion were delivered, most of them required serious intervention before hitting the streets. Three CEOs came and went, and yet no street cars. Lots of money wasted, time, to achieve partial goal with low quality. All kind of reasons were given as excuse and explanation, and never the main one – they simply did not know how to make a street car. Governments and huge corporations paid billions for modernization and improvement, to “leverage technology, you know”. For several years now, federal employees have huge problems with payroll management – they replaced old system, with new, modernized and improved – which did not work at all, then was fixed and fixed and is still being fixed. That was not result of fraud. It was pure ignorance.
Recently i found somewhere that USA army cannot produce or purchase tents, for lack of cloth that tents are made of. There was one supplier, but five yers ago they outsourced the production to China, sold it, then went out of business. SUrgical masks, protective gowns, even famous ventilators – USA is simply does not know how to produce (design, get raw material, organize manufacturing and distribution).
How to cure the disease? Level of knowledge is where European countries were in pre-industrial time. What is the difference between pre-industrial and post-industrial. I don’t know the differences, but similarity is neither have any industrial capacity. In pre industrial time, knowledge and capital were missing. So what poor countries did – they sent their youth to study abroad, to Germany, Austria, England, France. It took a good generation to build not workforce but ability to produce knowledgeable work force. In Serbia, about 1820 (a blt after Napoleon) we got mostly liberated from Ottoman Turks (Erdogan variety), opened “A Greta School”, then sent the brightest and smartest to Vienna, Prague and Paris to study. Elementary schools started work in the country. When smarties and brightest came back from Vienna, Prague, Paris, they became professors at Great School. Few years after, we were able to produce a handful engineers, doctors, historians, geographers and such, that could actually do some work. Until then, we had to rely on foreigners, experts mostly fro Vienna, Prague or Paris. Few years before WWI, we were able to produce significant number of people who were more than just literate. Alas, WWI took most of them – there was a battalion of “1300 corporals”, university students trained for war, which they joined, and some came back, but not too many. In 1918 it was all over again, but we had infra structure, schools and universities were established in 1860es and continue to work after 1918. In 1941 WWII came, communists took over, yet educational system was pretty much intact. Communist could not send students to Vienna or Paris, so they turned to uncle Stalin and soviets came to teach us, just like in 1917-18 their grandparents fled the revolution. You can call communists this and that, but stupid they were not. Education was the most important thing – in order to industrialize country. Stallion did that in 1930 for USSR. The relationship with Stalin soured in 1945, so we were on our own, but managed somehow to get to the level of middle of the pack of western countries. Today, there is very little industry in Serbia, NATO took care of it in 1999. Slowly, it is getting better. Serbian students are in high demand in Europe. Two years ago, Germany took, purchased, offered jobs to entire generation of medical doctors. Whoever graduated that year, was offered a job in Germany, right after school. Why would Germans do that? Don’t they have their own doctors? Or may be there are two categories of doctors in Germany, well paid Germans, and second class Serbians. It turns out, the former reason – they do not have nearly enough doctors coming from their schools. Nor for lack of knowledge, more to lack of money, you see, even there education is expensive. Or maybe high schools do not produce enough students of quality needed to finish medicine.
Where is Canad /USA in all of this. My bet is they are now where Serbia was in 1850. Not enough people with expertise, on all levels, primary, secondary, post secondary, without foundations of a system able to produce them. Yes, that is where they are. It is worse. we simply did not have any teachers. They have a whole well off class of educators. Most of them do not posses enough knowledge to teach. Now, they need to get rid of most of that and start sending people to China, Russia, Iran, Thailand, Serbia to educate them? Why there? Because in those countries there enough teachers capable of teaching in English. Yes it is that bad. Don’t ask me for sources to see how bad shoos are, eh, we have the best education system in the world, here in Canada, you know, envy of the world. Maybe Iranian and Russian teacher feel envy when they hear how much Canadian teachers are paid, but that is the end of it. In some sense, I am the source. For 20+ years I have been working for a government agency that tests elementary and high school students, mainly math and English. In 1997 we delivered the first sets of data. English was so-so, but math was terrible (even Canadians admitted that). After then, English literacy improved a bit, math went slightly down. Kids who were 10 and 12 in 1997, would be 30+ today – new crop of teachers. How can students who were seriously bad in math, in formative years, become suddenly good teachers and teach the kids something? If somebody does not understand why 10 and 12 are formative years an foundation for later, please check the curriculum in Russia or China.
Yes, Canada and USA are in 1860es now, but think they are in 2060es. Who know, if they continue like this, perhaps in 2060es they sink in stone age, population collapses, and rich tourists from China and Iran come to see stone age people in their natural habitat, like we go to Yellowstone and British Columbia to see grizzly bears? Maye somebody declares them a species in danger, so we somehow protect them from extinction?
Getting out of denial is the first step to recovery. However, historically, it takes a social revolution to seriously change the foundations of a society. if a revolution ever happens in North America, I guess it will be more like 1789 France than 1917 Russia. After all, technological situation in USA and Canada is closer to 1789 France than 1917 Russia.
Perhaps I could have written just last two paragraphs? Maybe next time.
Thank you very much for this,Bosnian Serb.
I wish I could circulate your post to the Rentier Class and Compradeur Elites in Africa but they are at the Canadian and French Embassies trying to get Visas to emigrate,for “a brighter future for their kids”.
I think there is a lot of truth in what you say. I am a Scientist born in 1953 in the US. Through most of my career I would say I have worked with Scientists and Engineers that were competent. Science has gone completely to immigrants, but there are still some decent American Engineers. I can’t say much about the overall situation. But, de-industrialization has definitely caused massive harm. The solution will probably remain as it has been. Import people who know what they are doing. Soon all the Engineers will probably be immigrants as well.
Bosnian Serb,
As a fourth generation Canadian, I can only say thank you for your wonderful insights.
Banane, jabuke,mand.
Limun Lek za Uzi
Moj lek
Thank you for understanding and patience. Just now I’ve realized how long the post was! In Canada, people are nice and do not comment on emigrants’ English speaking and writing skills. But once, a dear friend of mine, Canadian with English roots, 4 generation, told me about some technical report we were working on “Listen, I know you are aware of your speaking accent that is fine. This document is too important, let me edit it and rewrite, just the form. No offense, you not only speak with accent, you guys also write with accent” No offense taken, it was honest, and accurate.
Please do not understand the text as bashing Western countries. Some 40-50 years ago, it was not like this. Canadians designed and produced excellent military jet – Avro. When USA learned about it, all the work stopped, at the moment of readiness for production, documentation was transferred to Arizona, and few essential people. I learned that from my neighbour, few years ago. Robotic arm that Soyuz Station uses is made by Canadians. First computers were indeed made by USA, Bill Gates non-withstanding. Many things they have built on this continent are still what they call now “cutting edge”, some are very old. A canal connecting Hudson river to lake Eire was built in USA in early 1800s, I believe 1825-1835. That act cancelled British advantage – St. Lawrence, in English hands, was a direct route to fur country – Great Lakes. Now USA could do penetrate fur country without needs to go to war with English. After all, it was on the USA Canada border that the first electrical power plan was built. Today, nobody says electricity, the word is Hydro, the first plant was hydro powered. We may question Moon landing; the fact remains in Space they did fly. Then there was Space Shuttle. It worked work at the time when Russian Space program was if not dead, at least in agony.. We may also question 9-1-1, the fact that those buildings were built at the first place is extraordinary. Building them was a feat. Destroying them required different skills. Even bringing a building down to its footprint is not a small thing.
Universities are somehow still able to function, way better than elementary and secondary schools. Text books are still excellent, way better than what we had in Serbia, which I know for sure. I cannot tell about Russia or Iran. I know from experience that they were stronger than us, and still are, in mathematics and many technical branches, books or no books. Even some high school books are very good. Elementary school text books,- not so. Well, there was even no government sanctioned curriculum until after 2000! How can one write a good text book for non existing curriculum, eh? Everybody was teaching what they saw fit. The system would produce a flash of excellence, once in a while; statistics is in play all the time
Inertia is a great power, both in mechanics and in social sphere. Once good/bad system is established (i.e. education, health, transportation, energy), it is hard to destroy, almost impossible. Russian science was dismantled cruelly in 1990s; there were even a few officially recognized ‘lost generations’ of human capital. Suddenly they make hypersonic rockets. It was not Putin who re-built education and technical base from zero up. The system was there, dormant and pushed aside for a while; it took Putin to wake it up. Fundaments were built by Peter the Great; Czarism kept it in good health and appreciated education (I mean real education, not training, not skills learned on the job, no cross training). Lenin and Stalin gave it a another strong push. From feudal country before 1917, they industrialized quickly and in mid 50s were on par with USA. All the time, schools functioned and still are, more or less the same way. Peter the Great, Romanovs, Lenin, Stalin, Putin, even drunken Yeltzin run the schools the same way. They did privatize everything, even parts of health and education, but the core remains intact, not because Putin does not want to change it, but because the core naturally refuses to change. Like Newton’s inertia, good system, or bad, tends to stay in current state. A force is needed to change the state and bring system to another level, better or worse.
There is good inertia in the West, too, but it is heavily suppressed at the moment. Smartness is evenly distributed, over Europe, Russia, China, Indonesia, Brazil, USA or Canada. Due to immigration, USA and Canada even have advantage in numbers due to influx of immigrants. The trick is how to use good inertia for the benefit of the people. For last 15 years the brightest Canadian kids went to study business and accounting, to became financial brokers. The studies were based on Case Studies, not much theory, not much thinking. It is politically incorrect to demand from kids to add and multiply fractions – we have phones and computers. That is true. But, purpose of learning times table is not to become good in arithmetic. It is a brain exercise, for in life and schooling brain muscles are as important as physical muscles. Interestingly, it is OK and laudable for kids to wake up 6 AM, do some skating and physical exercise, then shoot 500 pucks into the net. We are hockey nation. Asking for kids to work on homework two hours a day is insulting. Hence, no homework is given to students.
Physical infrastructure is there – Canadian schools are spacious, well heated, well equipped, perhaps the best in the world. For USA, not sure, but great majority are in good shape and equipped. We have smart kids, good school buildings, computers and all, human capital is there. We just need someone to teach us how to teach students, and what to teach them. Existing books will do, for a while. But to do that we must eat a big chunk of humble pie. there is no shame in asking for help. However, a revolution would be necessary. I have no expertise nor experience in that domain, there so no more talk from me.
Cheers
@Bosnian Serb, I’ve been here for over 45 years, raised three kids. The education system fell apart in the eighties with the advancement of affirmitive action (devirsified hiring not based on getting the brightest) and a touch of no kid left behind inclusiveness. Who wants to be a ‘dunce’ when everyone can be ‘the dunce’. It is encumbant for all parents, if possible, to send their kids to school already able to read, write, add and subtract. They may be bored when the teacher has to teach 20 other kids to add 1+1, but the payoff for them is far greater down the road.
Great read, shared experiences as an immigrant. Always thinking of home, where the heart was, in my case it took a trip home in the 90’s to see how many were beholden to the Celtic Tiger of Debt. I’ll pass, this is home now.
Cheers, M
to Bosnian girl…
the same thing is happening in Europe,
at this moment the, and since the 90s forward, the educational system is not one that promotes hardwork and study, that produces excellency, or that prepares the young generations to become good professionals or persons in general.
it has become a validation system, where all students are treated equal, always bringing that equality to the lowest possible denominator. It is some kind of “communist” system of education, where only mediocrity and just the minimal effort (if any) are needed to pass…
students are all equal, if there is one talented, they smash that talent into him the hard way. The kids are show in early school that no matter what they do, they pass to the next course, more or less with the same grades for them all.
If you are lazy, that is ok, if you are a conscientious and disciplined kid, you learn to be lazy, because no matter what you do, you can not be better than others (it is politically uncorrect).
The guys comming out of universities are at the same level of knowledge as my generation was when entering it… and you can forget about engineering, scientific, software programming or technical careers, that is a minority… Universities only produce now a mixmax of social sciencies (whatever this is), pseudofinance, politics, media crap, etc.
not a good thing to run an Economy based on production of real things and services.
the west have lost the production capabilities (with some exceptions like Germany) and know how… and the know how to know how…
yes, definitely we are at the level of France in 1789.
I just pray I live enough to see the revolution.
”It is some kind of ’communist’ system of education, where only mediocrity and just the minimal effort (if any) are needed to pass…”
What’s communist about that? Indeed: The education system in the USSR and China, past and present, versus the West — the less said the better.
hot conflict with china? poor US bastards.
it s Up tot the schmuels to choose either the nuclear or conventional, China will sure survive as a nation, whereas the exceptionalistan wont.
And this coronavirus has triggered a belligerent US stand again, it had the advantage to make the yellows to prepare more rapidly, with more focus on decisive weapons.
Remember that it took Putin s Russia some 12-13 years post-Yeltsin to cope with, catch up and outgun the Pentagonites way-of-life.
Which was done via the Russian ultrasonic missiles and effective air defense systems.
With Beijing it will not take that long.
There can be no war between any of the major nuclear powers. Not China or any other country could survive such a conflict. People like to talk about big conventional bombs of 1000 lbs high explosive. A small nuclear warhead of 150 kT has the equivalent of 3,000,000 lbs high explosive.
The ridiculousness of having China manufacture everything has been recognized by ordinary US citizens (including yours truly) for decades. But the oligarchs that rule America did not care in the least. Trump’s demonization of China over Covid-19 (the truth or falsehood doesn’t really matter) is very useful and may make it possible for the US to disengage from China economically. Although this may lead to import substitution (India, Vietnam, whatever) one can bring production home by introducing gradually escalating tariffs on certain goods. In other words reverse international trade and it’s ever-expanding share of national economies. Oh, the horror. The US imported 6% of manufactured goods in the 1960’s and I didn’t notice any great shortages. Manufacturing makes up a smaller percentage of economies in any case, so it certainly makes sense to have a substantial degree of independence. If we split into two blocs (again) perhaps only the central nations need to be independent (US on one side, and Russia/China on the other).
I’m sorry, but having duplication brings inefficiencies in both consumption and production. Raising tariffs in the short term allows domestic manufacturers to raise their pricing to match the import plus the tariff as they can’t immediately expand capacity to meet any increase in demand. This produces a gain for manufacturers, a gain for the government, and a loss for consumers. Over the long run as capacity does expand you’ll have American consumers subsidizing large areas of manufacturing with no net benefit to society. International Economics 101 type stuff, pretty basic.
You didn’t notice them but they were still present, like oil for fueling cars, once tshtf, we wern’t manufacturing the right stuff, the germans and japanese out witted us with small cars, better electronic gadgets and finally games of entertainment to keep the consumer happy and distracted until by 2000, it was pretty much game over for U.S. manufacturing, all in a short 30 year time span.
There is no Cold War. There is an ongoing coup within the USA of the techno-banking elite in alliance with a section of the Chinese ruling class against the nationalist elements and what is left of the working class outside of the Democratic Party which, by the way, is the party pf the techno-banking elite posing as a defender of the people. The Military industrial complex types support both sides.
Forgot the Cold War—this is part of a sham political theater, pre US election show. And it has nothing to do with the usual political, geographic boundaries. It is a war for the control of the Earth and the peoples on it. The divide goes through every country and in every way. To stay stuck in old categories and modes of thinking will leave you high and dry in the end as you select from the menu of “lessor evils”.
At least when you do so, be aware of what is at stake and calmly go about your business as are doing the Iranians and the Venezuelans.
”Upon the breakup of the USSR, the United States had an opportunity to change direction and embark on a trajectory of demonstrating good leadership and innovation in the international community. Instead it set about promoting and installing a self-declared New-World Order that rendered the USA the sole superpower, and at all costs, ensured it stayed that way by whatever means necessary.”
No, the US never had any such opportunity as the entire history of the US is based on oppression, violence, lawlessness, and deceit at home and abroad. It was a terrible blunder to even entertain the possibility that caving in to US demands for everything in exchange for nothing would solve any problems whatsoever. The demise of the USSR didn’t curb US belligerence — it encouraged it massively. The neoconservatives are, despite the ’neo’ prefix, not any new phenomenon, maybe except their frill of eulogising and grovelling before Israel. Their megalomania, hatred of Life itself, and unrestrained greed are a solid embodiment of the US national character.
Hi Ghassan – great article – very to the point.
But I would like to offer another view on this situation the US finds itself in.
What if the decision makers that offshored the jobs of America to China – knew what they were doing and wanted it that way. Catherine Austin Fitts has said that of course the decision makers knew what they were doing.
Where does that put the question mark ?
@Ann Watson
Offshoring of manufacturing by US companies carries with it a number of profitable advantages. The first is that the Chinese government funds the construction of the US factories with money that is created ex nihilo debt free by their government owned central bank, that pays the Chinese workforce in yuan, who then spend these yuan within China. The Chinese workforce therefore costs almost nothing, while producing goods based on US technology. The goods are then exported back to the US by pricing in US dollars, but an intermediary tax haven company is used to siphon off the dollar profits out of reach of the Internal Revenue Service. For example, Apple computer has $250 billion stashed in offshore banks.
What question mark? The NeoCon / AngloZionist plan all along was for the West to collapse and for China to rise. What is interesting is that so many are so supportive of this NeoCon / AngloZionist plan, particular the latter part of it.
Great article, absolutely to the point. Thank you! By the way as China lost the knowledge of ships’ construction and navigation the same thing happened to them that now happens to the U.S. China got the lesson but it took a long time before it could catch up with the West. It suffered an awful lot. If ever a Renaissance of America was to happen we won’t be there to see it. But the suffering is already getting visible to everyone.
The writings of Michael Hudson give some insight into this. Wall Street is only interested in its Finance increasing and doesn’t give a hoot about Main street, where the production and consumption occurs. The producers and consumers are where the people are, but Government only cares about Wall Street, so the people are going downhill, so the West is going downhill. Finance is not the economy, but that’s enough of Hudson for now.
The Deep State is very happy about the situation. They want the West to go down so that the New World Order can arise. So Trump cannot really bring production back to the West because then the Deep State would be offended. Remember the picture on the cover of the Economist about the phoenix rising from the ashes of the burning dollar bills. Of course the collapse of the West isn’t good enough by itself, because the self-reliant would still be around – “hard times breed strong men”. That’s when the Deep State is going to need boots on the ground to finalize matters, because only boots on the ground can finalize matters, bombing is insufficient. And guess where the boots on the ground are going to come from? Or in the initial stages at least, where all the physical boots and uniforms and guns are going to come from? That place where all the manufacturing and production was sent to, thats where. QED. In the final stages both the boots on the ground and the physical boots and uniforms and guns will all come from the same place.
So its much preferable to have a nice long cold war (50 years), so that the West and China can balance matters out and the Deep State can go on pension, than have the West collapse right now. Russia is 100% self sufficient, and armed to the teeth, so can’t really be bothered about what happens in the West or in China.
Aren’t you forgetting something?
The Triffin Dilemma and the Dollar Racket
There was always a fundamental incompatibility between the attainment of global economic stability and possession of a single national currency to perform the role of the world’s reserve currency. As a global reserve currency the dollar has to be the anchor of the world’s trading system. However, as a domestic currency the dollar needs to have sufficient flexibility for internal policy. Thus at the heart of the dollar’s value and use there is this contradiction for the dual roles of this currency.
During the Bretton Woods ‘golden age’ which lasted from 1944 until 1971, the US$ was fixed against gold at $35 per oz. However the cost of US wars of choice in Korea and Indo-China, as well as ambitious social programmes like LBJ’s ‘Great Society’, saw a global build-up of surplus dollars accumulating in central banks around the world. These surplus dollar countries then began trading in their surplus dollars at the gold window at the Fed. This was a situation which the US could not tolerate as gold was flying out of the US to various overseas central bank venues.
Thus it was that on August 15, 1971, President Nixon suspended dollar/gold convertibility for a temporary period, which in fact morphed into a permanent arrangement – an arrangement which persists to this day. The gold standard was replaced with the US$ fiat standard. The dollar was to be regarded as being as good as gold, which was rather more like an act of faith than rational economic policy.
The maverick Belgian economist Robert Triffin first drew attention to this anomaly during the 1960s in his seminal work Gold and the Dollar Crisis: The Future of Convertibility. He observed that having the US dollar perform the role of the world’s reserve currency created fundamental conflicts of interest between domestic and international economic objectives.
On the one hand, the international economy needed dollars for liquidity purposes and to satisfy demand for reserve assets. But this forced, or at least made it easy, for the US to run consistently large current account deficits.
He argued that such a policy of running persistent deficits would eventually put pressure on the dollars convertibility and ultimately lead to the demise of the Bretton Woods system of international exchange which is exactly what happened in 1971.
This arrangement led to what in effect were tangible advantages for the US, at least to the current situation.
‘’A controversial benefit’’ (among others) ‘’of the dollars international currency status is the real resources that other countries provide the United States in order to obtain our dollars. It costs only a few cents at the Bureau of Engraving to produce a $100 bill, but other countries have to pony up $100 of real goods and services to obtain one. (The difference between what it costs the government to print the note and a foreigner to procure it is known as seignorage after the right of the medieval lord, or seigneur, to coin money and keep for himself some of the precious metal from which it was made. About $500 billion of US currency circulates around the world outside the United States, for which foreigners have had to provide $500 billion to the US for actual goods and services.’’ (Barry Eichengreen – Exorbitant Privilege – pp.3/4)
Nice work if you can get it. International trade as denominated in US$’s meant that the US$ qua world reserve currency could use its dollars to buy foreign assets and pay for them in dollars. These dollars were then held by foreigners who could no longer convert surplus dollars into gold but could only purchase US Treasuries and other US dollar-denominated assets which were never going to be repaid. Surplus dollar countries would sell their hard-earned dollars to purchase US Treasuries which pushed up the value of the dollar and kept US interest rates low; and the US in turn would buy goods and services from these same surplus countries. It worked rather like this: a foreign computer company – say ‘Japcom’ – sells you a computer by lending you the money to buy it! The ultimate free lunch.
But of course there’s always a catch! The effect of a strong dollar which raised domestic US industries costs, lead to the hollowing out of the US domestic economy which ultimately could not compete with more efficient overseas competition. The last thing that the US rust belt needed was/is a strong dollar which had the effect of making its export industries less competitive. This left the US in an economic quandary. Namely, that the United States must on the one hand simultaneously run a strong/dollar, policy and on the other a weak/dollar policy, or put another way must allow for an outflow of dollars to satisfy the global demand for the currency, but must also engineer an inflow of dollars to make its domestic industries more competitive. As explained thus: when the Fed cuts interest rates, investors sell dollar-denominated assets and buy foreign assets, which tends to weaken the dollar’s exchange rate.
Having it both ways! Which of course is hardly possible.
Moreover, it is a moot point as to whether the rest of the world will continue to support this ‘exorbitant privilege’ in perpetuity. So far, the Vichy-Quisling-Petainst regimes in Europe and East Asia have to touch their forelocks and prostrate themselves before their Lord and Masters, but it would be wrong to imagine that this can continue as a permanent arrangement. Ironically, however, the US hegemon treats its friends and allies considerably worse than its putative enemies. Such is the nature of geopolitics.
Like the man said:
‘‘A nation does not have permanent friends or allies, only permanent interests.’’
British Statesman, Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount (Lord)…Palmerston, (1784-1865).
La Lotta Continua.
I agree that the US cannot win an industrial war with China. Many reasons for this rxist, but perhaps the simplest one is dollars and cents.
The US is currently $25 trillion in debt. It is only able to service this debt due to extremely low interest rates. The interest today on this gargantuan debt is actually lower than in past years with a much lower debt load.
Every industry that is “re-patriated” means that the workers will have to be paid much more than their Asian counterparts. This will inevitably mean higher prices for goods, which brings inflation and pressure on interest rates to rise. Ooops….. now how to service the debt?
Beyond that, inflation raises the cost of Social Security through cost of living increases; another major expense. These factors alone make an industrial war not only unwinnable, but unfightable.
In other words, the US has boxed itself into a corner. Its only practical tools are dominance where possible and chaos otherwise.
China knows this and likely the US know China knows. What is left is theater. While it is possible for China to lose, it is not possible for the US to win. China’s challenge is to not make missteps that can be exploited along the way. Otherwise the outcome is inevitable.
I’m not a fan of capitalism. But I would have to say the unraveling of Western industry is related to a somewhat more specific issue: Free trade and free investment.
This is distinct from capitalism per se, although it seems to be a predictable development. The rise of free trade and above all freely moving capital came as capitalists in national economies found, with strong unions and high wages at home, their profit rate was tending to fall. In order to keep more of the goodies they had to find new places to produce, with low wages and nonexistent safety and environmental standards. As a win-win for them, this also allowed them to break unions and other curbs on exploitation at home, as they were able to in effect force first world workforces to compete with third world ones. The “race to the bottom” effect is both real and intentional. Free traders call it “efficiency”.
But still, in theory you could have capitalism with capital that was less mobile, banking that was less global, and trade that had more barriers. It wouldn’t be sustainable because the capitalists would constantly be working to get around and change such rules so as to increase their profits and weaken the workers, but it could be done for a while.
If people earn meagre the domestic market will suffer. US cannot compete with China insofar as the domestic market there is much bigger than the US one.
And foreign countries are already yet big competitors to US.
US populace slept far too long concerning its own 1 % elite and took the mainstream medias propaganda for reliable as well as neglected to inform themselves through foreign info canals to get more fact-balanced info.
Meanwhile US had created too many enemies in the last seventy years.
It could have done completely otherwise starting from 1991/92. This turning point had been overlooked completely and instead of winning countries without unnecessary wars it made more enemies. It could have been becoming a real outstanding country.
Moreover, USA is the one country which polluted very much earth, waters and soil with its wars. Just to sit in a foreign country without any real purpose other than to rob, steal and sent a lot of mostly very uneducated soldiers isn’t a good picture of an “indispensable” country.
Even the Romans with its extreme cruelty built bridges, big roads (which even can be seen until nowadays) as well as aqueducts, walls etc. in conquered countries. To compare therefore USA with the Roman Empire doesn’t fit in.
The problem is Western inventors have abandoned the parent process because any inventor worth his weight in salt knows Uncle Sam will steal his IP and hand it over to a US company with filing dates preceding the actual inventor’s application date.
I can prove this is a fact.
So inventors have stopped creating the value of things of tomorrow.
There is no way an inventor can survive in the West.