by Batiushka for the Saker blog
Introduction: The Story So Far
So far the US has carried out regime changes and created military conflicts in countries friendly to or important to Russia: Iraq, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq (again), Georgia, Syria, Libya. All this was to make Russia lose important interests or deploy its own forces. It has also staged PR events such as Litvinenko, Pussy Riot, MH17, Skripals, Navalny, Bucha, the destruction of Nordstream – in order to try and blame Russia and make it into a pariah state.
In particular, in 2014 in the Ukraine it carried out a $5 billion coup with the murder of and terror against Russian-speakers. It then installed a puppet government, promoted Nazism through racist indoctrination, besmirched the historic legacy through rewriting history and toppling memorials, terrorised and banned all opposition, set up US military biolabs, supplied and trained an army, made military threats against Russia, threatened the Crimea, and promised that the Ukraine could soon join the US-puppet NATO and install nuclear weapons.
A Message from Boris: Deaths and Sackings
When Boris Johnson turned up in Kiev a few days ago, you knew events would follow. He is after all the office boy for Biden. So last week came the resignation of Zelensky’s spinmaster, Alexey Arestovich, for telling the truth about the Ukrainian military – that it had killed civilians by destroying an apartment block in Dnepro in a military accident and could not win the war. The next day the interior minister Monastyrsky, a longtime aide of Zelensky, and his first deputy died in a helicopter crash in Kiev a week ago (‘caused by flying low in fog’). Strange, since the neo-Nazi militias operate through his ministry.
Then there was the murder of Denis Kireev, who was an important participant in the March peace talks with Russia. It is rumoured that he was too keen on peace – which the US and the UK are totally opposed to. He had to go, so the CIA/SBU (same thing) did the job. Next came a major purge on 24 January following corruption claims, involved a deputy prosecutor general, the deputy head of the president’s office, the deputy defence minister and five regional governors.
Interestingly, Poroshenko, last seen in a luxury hotel in London, living off his now very active cremation business in the Ukraine, promised peace with Russia in one week. Once in power he did not bring peace and lost the next election. He was replaced by Zelensky, who also promised a peace settlement with Russia in the Donbass, but instead prepared war and even sought nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian people are promised peace, but are not given it. Zelensky’s support base is small and there is a majority that wants peace. Is Zelensky the next to be purged?
Escalation: Germany Declares War on Russia Again
Germany is going to send Leopard tanks to the Kiev regime. For the third time since 1914 Germany is now, on paper at least, at war with Russia. The Russians have a choice: they can intervene in the Ukraine from the north-west (Belarus) and the south-west (the sea) and cut off the whole of the Ukraine from all its arms supplies, including several dozen German, American, British and other tanks – and it will take months for the promised tanks to arrive across the Polish border. Or else Russia can bomb anything that comes across the Polish border. It has already warned that anything coming across that border into the Ukraine will be destroyed. Thus, in any case, a barrier will be created. Western Europe must be cut off, for it has become the source of the evil, providing weapons to Neo-Nazis.
Otherwise, the Poles and their reservists too may intervene (in their Leopard tanks? Remember Tiger tanks?) to take over the west of the Ukraine. Is Russia really going to allow the division of the Ukraine into the Russian East and the Polish-led Western West, in other words, its Koreanisation or Vietnamisation? (And we know how those divisions ended). Otherwise, the Anti-Russia of the Ukraine will remain forever. Western Europe must be cut off. What began as a small operation to liberate the two Russian provinces of the Donbass, is now, as a result of Western (= US-led) escalation, an operation to liberate the whole of the Ukraine. Only total Russian victory can work. Only establishing a Russian-led Kiev Protectorate, like the situation in Belarus, can work. All those who disagree with that and have not yet fled for the West had better leave now.
Interestingly, we know that the Russian Black Sea Fleet with its landing craft left port last week. On 25 January Dmitry Medvedev wrote publicly that the Ukraine would have no need of submarines, as it would soon become landlocked. The day before, the President of Belarus, Lukashenko, rejected the offer of a Non-Aggression Pact from the Ukraine (= the US on behalf of Poland). Meanwhile, the somewhat senile Biden has blurted out that the US will support the Ukraine ‘for as long as it exists’. This is not what he used to say. Then it was ‘support to victory’. The only problem here is that the US never admits failure, it never admits that it backed the wrong horse at huge expense to the US taxpayer. How will it get out of this one?
The War
In the Ukraine the NATO war has killed and maimed hundreds of thousands in just the last eleven months is continuing with hundreds more victims today, the same as yesterday, and the same as tomorrow. The doomsaying pessimists with their conspiracy theories of nuclear Armageddon foretell that this war will continue for years, ‘perhaps even a decade’. Others, the optimists, are thinking that the Kiev regime may collapse within weeks, or in three or four months at most, or there will be a coup in Kiev with Kiev forces either surrendering en masse or else turning around and marching on their murderous US puppet-commanders in Kiev. It does sound like wishful thinking. With yet more NATO weaponry and tanks to be destroyed, I think it will all take longer. Not years, as those happy souls, the doomsaying pessimists with their conspiracy theories of nuclear Armageddon foretell, but another 15 months. But I really hope that I am wrong and that the wishful thinkers are right and that it will all be over very soon.
As the Saker in his penetrating analysis has pointed out, if the US cannot prevent a Ukronazi/NATO defeat, it can at least make the war as costly as possible for Russia. Find another attacker. Poland will do. Promise them the five provinces in the far west of the Ukraine, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk, and the Poles will do anything you tell them to. After all, there are Poles, and most of them seem to be part of its current incredibly stupid government, who still have a messianic complex, who still dream of glory, of ‘saving Europe from the barbarian Russian hordes’, of a ‘Poland stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea’, and of becoming the most powerful country in Europe, dwarfing those nasty Germans ‘who are going to give us back trillions’. Well, there have always been fantasists. Hitler was one of them. And the American Empire has always known how to manipulate them for its own ends, whether in Argentina, Iran, Iraq, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Venezuela, the Baltics, the Ukraine or Poland.
The fact is that the American Empire knows that it cannot defeat Russia in a straightforward war, so it has always used proxies. In 2008, it took the absurd step of using Georgia. This was far too small, far too weak and irrationally nationalistic. As a Georgian told me quite seriously just a few years ago: ‘God only speaks Georgian and does not understand any other language’. I was surprised to learn that God has such limited linguistic abilities, however, there are plenty of Ukrainians who believe much the same today, not to mention Poles.
And both the Ukraine and Poland are a lot bigger than Georgia. Hence the American choice. Once they are both defeated, the US will be turning to Germany – as they almost did in Churchill’s Operation Unthinkable plan to attack the Red Army on 1 July 1945, using British, American, Polish and German forces to destroy Russia (1). Or why not use Sweden, Turkey, Japan? Why not China? Why not just overthrow Putin with the ‘masses’ of Russians who do not like him? Such today are also the fantasies of ‘the crazies in the basement’ at the Pentagon. No wonder they get on with the Polish government. And don’t forget the biggest crazy in the US basement was Polish: Zbigniew Brzezinski.
For Russians, 2022 was simply a repeat of 1812 and 1941. The Third Great Patriotic War. The West doing its barbaric thing, as usual. The fact is that, though some historians deny it, history does repeat itself, simply because human pride, arrogance and hubris repeat themselves. German tanks with their black crosses trying to destroy Russia on the Ukrainian steppes? We Russians shrug our shoulders. We have seen it all before. The Anti-Russia of the Ukraine will simply never happen. Zelensky is on drugs and so is the Ukraine, addicted to Western transfusions of blood, money, mercenaries and arms.
Afterword: Another Future
Famously, or rather infamously, the British Establishment figure who was the first NATO Secretary General boasted that the aim of NATO was ‘to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down’ (2). As for us, we wish to see a renewal of Kennedy’s ‘Alliance for Progress’, a World Alliance of Sovereign Nations, a global version of the Gaullist spirit (though not the precise words) of ‘l’Europe des Patries’ (Europe of the Nations’). We wish to see a for now geriatric Europe reattached to its historic destiny with Russia and so with Eurasia, where it is all happening. Therefore, our aim is: ‘To keep Russia in, the Americans out and the Germans up’.
Some write that Russia can only win the war in the Ukraine as long as it can help the US to save face after its defeat and then the collapse of NATO and the EU. Remember Saigon? Remember Bush and his ‘Mission Accomplished’? (The world laughed at his farce, but plenty in the US were convinced by it). Remember Kabul? The US just left them and pretended to be in denial about them. Like the British at Dunkirk in 1940, who left their French allies in the lurch, they just ran away back to their island, declaring victory, though leaving lots of their equipment behind them. The Americans can also run away, saying: ‘Forget it. They are not worthy of us’.
Self-isolation would be such a good thing. Go back to the big island of Northern America. If you want, build Trump’s long-promised wall across the south to keep those nasty Latinos out. Lick your wounds and at last start trying to deal with the massive internal problems that you already have: great poverty, racial division, mass shootings, debt, social injustices, lack of healthcare, unemployment, exploitation, an education system that deliberately makes people stupid, drugs, crime and so mass imprisonment. Leave the Europeans to sort themselves out. No more Americans are going to die for or pay for those lazy Europeans. Just don’t tell the American people that this would make those same lazy Europeans only too happy. The only problem is that the US never admits failure, it never admits that it backed the wrong horse at huge expense to the US taxpayer. How will it get out of this one?
27 January 2023
Notes:
2. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_137930.htm
AS a cultural economist – constrained maximization occurs within the context of culture & law – I am ashamed of how Anglosphere culture has lost its way. An expression in the Arts says: Nothing fails like success!
Breton Woods (1944) & the WTO (1995) marked the high water mark. A chance to remake the world. The USA did change the world and for the better but… Nothing fails like success! From individual freedom to Woke identity politics it no longer has a message the world wants to here. Confiscation of private property of ‘Russian’ citizens betray its foundational values. A Reformation is in order.
Accordingly, I accept the author’s bill of indictment.
“Nothing fails like success” . How true. Success can mean stasis. Challenge must be met with innovation. So the “failure’ of the USSR meant a challenge. Russia evolved. Now, its reclaiming Ukraine as NovoRossiya and all that will be left of Western Ukraine is a rump state in Galicia. Russia has made clear that is it is not invading Ukraine. It is restoring it. Ukraine is not a war for it. The war is WWIII with the American Empire. Like all world wars it is different from those before, largely as a result of technology. Russia and China have superiority in WMD delivery systems and air defense system. So, the Empire has been fighting economically but it no longer has the economic base to do that — thank to early successes. The multipolar world? It is hear already. As for strategy read here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/big-serges-big-surge
Russia should not cede any part of Ukraine to Poland, because it does not need that big Poland. The disloyal population of Western Ukraine may be displaced.
Agree, Poland doesn’t deserve anything. That country was recreated at the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 after WW1, before that it hadn’t even existed for over 100 years. Why a country that hadn’t existed for over a 100 years was so suddenly recreated again defies the imagination. Now instead of just being grateful for their very existence the Poles are now suddenly imagining that they are the greatest Westerners, the last bulwark against the Russian subhumans. Meanwhile Poland has been de-industrialized by the West and most of their weaponry they have to import from elsewhere.
Once Russia has pacified the whole of Ukraine, which includes wiping out most of the forces that Poland can mobilize since those will all have been deployed to Ukraine, Russia should then move into Poland to make those peoples lives a misery. Poland can then become a permanent buffer zone between the West and Russia. This will be easy to achieve by that point since Europe will have depleted all its armaments by then and will be trying unsuccessfully to prevent a takeover by Muslims and Africans. Europe will have no heavy weapons left, the Muslims and Africans will overrun those woke LGBT liberals with just ak-47’s and rpg’s, heck, simple machetes will suffice. It is only possibly Germany in Europe proper which has the mindset and determination to prevent that takeover, the rest of Europe proper is finito. Most of the rest of Eastern Europe will survive since they have had good, strong Russian spermatozoa deposited in them during USSR times.
The Russians are hesitant to rush into Ukraine, they are waiting for “all the ducks to line up”.
I really thinkit reaches levels of crassness to suggest that people who warn that a military confrontation between nuclear powers is very dangerous are “conspiracy theorists”. The nuclear weapons really do exist! And those warning about it only have to be right once in human history.
How will it get out of this one?
I think Biden nailed it. ‘for as long as it exists’
It’s costing them too much. Seems to me the tank thing is yet another gimmick to make the russkies hurry the f’ up. The only thing that would speed them up is if the West suddenly came up with some good equipment.
Sending over stuff is fine. Use your energy to bring it too us. Our fellas sharpen their skills, our production lines get more efficient. Hell the Western weapons industry is based on profit. Now suddenly they are gonna turn out something affordable, good and profitable? That ship has sailed.
Russia will keep grinding and shaking anyone’s hand that proves trustworthy.
For the US it’s like a slow motion sinking of the titanic. The band is still playing. We pray hypothermia gets to the rich oligarchs before they can push the button. They are all quite drunk.
I’ll add that they’re STILL rearranging the desk chairs too!
Text is great. Parallel to the purposely sabotage of Russia by the empire of piracy and robbery is dying. There is a movement of the empire of piracy and rapine tried to dismantle the brics created in 2009 in 2013 there was an attempt at a colorful resolution that did not work and the coup was carried out against president Dilma by the fifth column of the National Congress formed by all kinds of criminals fifth and sixth column criminal scammers. And the last attempt was now against Lula, once again failure. However, the Lula government is a patchwork quilt where full spectrum domination has agents on the left and right with the objective of holding the Lula government hostage. I believe that Lula’s life is at risk, so he left for a war of attrition with Russia through the dombas and is the smo in 2022
To affect India IPR (Empire of Piracy and Robbery) made a color revolution in Pakistan.
China has Taiwan like a festering thorn ready to be expelled. Divide and dominate? Not to kill. Genocide. Otam’s war against Russia is first and foremost a culture war.
In this war it is possible to notice some nuances for example:
1 market economy to enrich a gang of insatiable bankers versus state economy used to serve the population with quality public policies in order to guarantee its citizens a decent life.
2 Judaism and Roman Christianity and Protestants versus Orthodox Christians
3 the immoral profit of the energy industry, agricultural inputs, food, transport and defense which coincidentally are owned by the owners of the big banks against honest gain without usury, destructive exploitation of the workers.
5 It is a struggle of the insular Anglo-Saxon pirates, let’s not forget the real piracy whose objective was to rob the rogues, I mean Latinos, soaked in the Zionist ideology that keeps the Palestinians under constant terror against continental citizens without colonialist rage.
6 is a losing war for the United States, and perhaps for all of humanity in NATO against the overwhelming majority of countries on the planet
Nevertheless, I think it will be a simple partition, i.e., Novorossiya, with Ukraine left as a rump state at the mercy of the Poles and NATO. In that case, the Russians already have what they want. They may press to the administrative borders or maintain their current geographic defense line. The border will cool off in time. The West is not likely to pony up another $100 billion every year.
The conveyor belt of patsies the USA requires in order to maintain its Financial House of Cards is over. Which Sovereign of sound mind and not already hitched to the coattails of the dying US Empire would now trust them with their country’s wealth & future security?
Russia’s not looking to Greece anyone, and has Sovereigns lining up to join their vision of a multipolar world.
$13 million per Abrams tank (without the super-duper secret armour plate protection) is what they’re adding to Ukraine’s never never debt coffers.
Cargill, Monsanto and the other Land Pirates must have written-off their Ukrainian Investments by now, while Boeing and The Defence Contractors are recouping theirs on the back of what’s left of the US Tax-payer.
Their rules-based order is on life-support, 30 seconds to midnight. Listen – tick-tock, tick-tock.
Problem with the clock is that as each second approaches midnight, the next second takes longer than the prior second until the last second takes forever.
I don’t expect it to arrive for a couple generations, possibly one if I don’t gamble.
“If you want, build Trump’s long-promised wall across the south to keep those nasty Latinos out.”
There’s no need. Just letting go of the Latin American parasitical élites would help these countries find their way and reduce illegal immigration sharply.
It goes without saying that if the US helps to implement policies that would keep Latinos at home, American farm owners and cleaning companies will sorely miss that cheap and dedicated labour, and Latin Americans may decide that its resources have better markets or terms for their products and resources.
This could apply to all the countries and forces the USA supports all over the globe. Taiwan an independent country? The people there have not agreed, but the USA is king. If the USA repaired its own broken systems, provided housing, good jobs, real education, healthcare! as security for the population, rather than huge spending on “defense” we would all be better off except the MIC corporations and the NATO bosses.
Great comment Andres
Way to many people act like illegals are trying to come in because they want to. Rather they have nothing left in their own countries other then american made terrorist governments run by the cia drug cartel. Over and over all these countries have suffered American style genocide. Destruction of the farming industries, environment, and family structures. The sad thing is this is no county to bother coming to, with basically no healthcare, no affordable housing, massive gun violence, and homelessness. While bombing every country around the world we the american people have also been raped and pillaged by the same Oligarchs who own the country.
Let’s not forget the dollar is at risk now – an important reason for the escalation against Russia by the neocons in the US and their partners. Having the world currency as your ‘own’ confers huge economic advantage to the US. The reduction in that power needs absolutely to happen for any sort of equity in the world to succeed. Hold gold perhaps if you can…
No full scale nuclear conflict: Nietzsche’s Law: Whoever lives for the sake of combating an enemy has an interest in the enemy staying alive. Human, All too Human IX, 531
Das Leben des Feindes. – Wer davon lebt, einen Feind zu bekämpfen, hat ein Interesse daran, daß er am Leben bleibt.
A full scale, nuclear war with Russia would kill the MIC’s cash cow – no more enemy of merit to fight.
However, I fear a false flag nuclear event blamed on Russia to galvanize, mobilize Europe/US/UK/Canada, et. al. into a real war footing – something the MIC obviously wants. No follow up nuclear exchange. Just mobilitsation to stop Russia in the west, to excuse Polish, Romanian, even Hungarian troops, supported by US firepower, retaking greater Poland, greater Romania and greater Hungary (least probable, but the sharks will be feeding so anything is possible)
They will blame Putin’s “desperation” due to his “losing” – an excuse that is fast evaporating as the Russian Winter Offensive begins in earnest.
As an American citizen born in Moscow, I wonder did mom make a mistake to bring us here, to be subject to the Western virus of hating on Russia.
Why can’t America do another Afghanistan or Iraq pivot, declare Fictory and work on all the homeless problems of a lost godless soul ?
American hatred of Russia has been a lifelong virus with not many who’ve achieved immunity….
But the virus of hatred only spreads dis ease.
America war on Russia is the worst form of racism.
What an absolutely marvellous article summarising so much and looking to a possible future.
I watched M Zackharova speaking on the German decision to send tanks to Ukraine, and the hurt in her eyes as she spoke of her Grandmother’s words about feeding the German POWs was very plain, as was her anger.
Our politicians here in the West are criminals.
I watched the series, ‘The Sopranos’ and enjoyed it very much because it had a moral message, but when thinking about the way America and the Uk are acting now, and the modus operandi of the security servoces of both nations, I realised I am living in a Mafiocracy, to coin a phrase.
There was a particular episode where they cleaned out a guy’s business because he couldn’t pay a gambling debt, and that was where I made the connection.
It is the same principals of operation.
To those who think the West can win this one, I will point out the fate of real life Mafiosi, and how they turn on each other in the end. After all, we, who are Just men, hang criminals,….not the other way round. Justice will prevail….I know this to be true. The world was made so that the just will prosper…and each sin has its own punishment built in to it, just as each virtue brings its own reward. The older people will back me on this. They will have seen it. So, fear not, and have faith. ‘All will be well, and all manner of things will be well.’
Found a video from iEarlGrey which talks about M Zakharova’s speech
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hv7yEI5YRZc
There are viewers who are aware that Germany is under US control – just as we have noted here and as Zakharova implies in her speech – and the real instigator is the US. And then there are those who talk about Germany’s responsibility without mentioning US vassaldom – I wonder why they leave that part out. How many remember how Scholz initially refused to send tanks before caving in to US pressure?
I don’t believe AmeriKKKa will ever give up. They can’t give up; like the scorpion, it’s not in their nature. The only question left is, How will they go down? Like Thelma & Louise, maybe… or like Dr Strangelove… or like Mr H committing suicide in his bunker?
I find myself hoping that someone will euthanize this rabid dog that’s threatening all life on earth. But I think Russia knows better than I do. There are bound to be deadman switches that would trigger instant mutual destruction, even considering hypersonic missiles.
“The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing the world that he did not exist.” (Baudelaire) This is spiritual warfare.
Not directly linked to the article:
I only think that the West might be preparing a trap for the Russian forces: it opens up the undefended rear of the Donbass’s Mazino-line, and then it will press them with hidden troops from the northwest? This would create a sandwich of 4 formations: 2 attacking and 2 in the boiler.
America’s lustre has certainly faded and even gone. In the last years this has accelerated. It is also getting dangerous for the whole world, as has been mentioned here in the article about the doomsday clock. It is personified in the person of Joe Biden. My two brothers and I are all around that age, but we would not want a full-time job anymore, especially one as demanding as that. That is why people retire. Some of us do not remain mentally fit. Who is running the government? Anonymous crazies? It is not much better here in Europe. The Roman Empire declined according to a possible hypothesis because people ingested lead from the tableware. What is making us stupid in the West, what could it be? One could think of some psychological and sociological fundamentals.
As we now know, also the March peace agreement was fake. What they got out of it was the Russian sign of goodwill withdrawal from Kiev. As well as maybe giving a false impression of being rational actors.
As have been recently revealed about the boss of GUR, Denis Kireev was their representative in the peace negotiation team. With the intructions to try to drag the negotiations out, in order to get time for military arrangements. This was not desirable for some, and the pretence of possibilty for quick agreement was desired.
That BoJo somehow influenced, and got the near peace agreement cancelled, is misleading. There never was any desire for negotiations, other than as a tool for pretence and deception. See Minsk 1 & 2.
Europe may be geriatric but for some strange reason many of our leaders are young and ignorant.
They have no knowledge but compensate for their stupidity with a strong belief.
Especially, our leaders lack knowledge in history. To make it worse our history is now heavily changed and rewritten since decades of revisionism.
Ignorance and stupidity is rewarded. Knowledge is punished.
Plato said that a ruler should be at least 50 years old. Younger than 50 one lacks wisdom and experience.
One of the ministers in our government is 27. Finlands PM is just a little more than 30.
Not many people here has any connection to WW2. Those who were adults during the war is now gone. And the younger generation does not listen to eldery people.
I travelled a lot in my active years. North of Paris up to the border of Belgium was a very depressing place. Thousands upon thousands of crosses. White crosses on the fields. And now Euope is at it again.
Anna Lena Baerbock says that Europe is at war with Russia. Baerbock was born 1980… Germanys foreign minister.
In another country i saw wooden barracks far away in the woods. I learned that they were built for people psychologically damaged by the war. They needed absolute calm and silence. They couldn’t stand any noise at all. The buildings were in decay and now they are probably gone. They should have been saved and used to educate our new warmongers politicians. Anna Lena Baerbock should isolate there a year and just listen to the birds and the wind. She is damaged in the German and EU pariament. The german green party!
The status now in my country is that we are under mass hypnosis and suffer hysteria and russophobia is att an all time high. Our stupid politicians compete with ideas how to defeat Russia. State media is doing their best propaganda ever. Russian media is forbidden.
The propaganda we have now is starting to look like the propaganda we had when we were at war with Russia in the 18th century. I don’t remember exactly but it was something about Russia and Assyrians. If one mix the letters one can find a connection… And everybody knew what Assyria was from the bible…
The Assyrians (Russians) must be defeated!
It ended in Poltava in Ukraine…
In the following peace treaty Russia stood as a guarantor for our constitution. Interestingly enough after the peace we had our famous “freedom time”. An explosion in science, litterature, music, culture. We also had political parties to vote for.
It is very hard to find information about Russias role for our constitution after the Nordic wars.
I wonder why?
Absolutely right: the Russians in, the Americans out, and Germany up. A Europe of the Nations, a friendly trading area, but not the EU or a United States of Europe.