by Ghassan Kadi
I should thank dear friend Andrew Korybko for giving me the inspiration to write this article. After he interviewed me a few days ago on his program Redline on Sputnik Radio, it became clear to me that Erdogan is perceived by many observers as a fairly mercurial character; which he is. However, if we dissect his ideology and history, we may get surprised and discover that he is more predictable than most other leaders.
I must admit, I haven’t been to Turkey since late 1983. Between early 1982 and late 1983 I must have made at least ten trips to Turkey as my work took me there. One of the tricks I learned was to have most of my meals in the restaurant at my hotel and to charge them to my account to pay at the end. For petty cash expenses, I also learned not to convert more than USD 100 into Turkish currency at a time; the reason being the rapid depreciation of the Turkish Lira. So every time I cashed in USD 100, I got more Turkish money and paying the hotel bill at the end guaranteed that I paid it at the lowest price.
A lot has changed since then, and definitely on the economic front. Turkey now boasts being the sixteenth largest economy in the world. The truth must be said about Erdogan’s achievements on the economic front. In a very short period of time, he turned the Turkish economy from that of an almost failed state into that of a viable industrial and competitive economy. With a healthier economy Erdogan developed better health care and social services, gaining much accolade and support.
What has changed also was how Turkey was transformed from a nation with liberal Western attributes, looks and attire to one that has a government that is Islamic in spirit, looks and aspirations.
Last but not least, the political power was taken away from the armed forces and put into the hands of the president. That was a major change that perhaps has dug the last nail in the coffin of Ataturk’s legacy.
Ataturk gave power to military leadership. Army chiefs, a council of three comprised of the three main divisions of the armed forces, had the power of a council of elders and the position of a government watchdog. Should politicians put their own interests before public good, the council of generals could step in and declare what was seen in the West as a military coup, when it was indeed the army chiefs exercising their constitutional powers to save the state from the foolhardiness of politicians.
Erdogan stripped this power away from the military and gave the president ultimate power and virtual impunity. Clearly, he was preparing for something huge for which he needed ultimate power.
None of the above observations about Erdogan is a pretext of predictability unless put into the context of him being an Islamist. To see his predictability, we must stop for a moment considering that it is the president of a country that we are analyzing here, and just look at what are the core attributes of an Islamist and what takes precedence in his decision-making.
As an Islamist, ideologically-speaking, there is no difference at all between Erdogan and any ISIL member. They are both driven by the same doctrine that is based on Quranic misinterpretations, and both driven by the same passion and seeking the same objectives of turning the whole world into an Islamic state run by Sharia law.
With all the different Islamist groups that exist today, the difference is not ideological. They will differ on certain strategies, quarrel over transient political loyalties, funds and arm supplies (as they are currently doing in Syria), they will squabble as to what extent they should take the call for Jihad and whom to follow, when to turn it on and off, but in essence, they do not have any difference in their doctrines and outlooks what so ever.
Erdogan might have had a fall-out with ISIL, one that made his blood forfeit, at least for a while, but infighting in between Islamists does not make news headlines. To elaborate this point, a member of say Muslim Brotherhood (MB) can easily shift sides and become a Salafist, to later on join ISIL, and be back to where he started from with the MB. For as long as he is an Islamist however, what he will not do is to join say the Communist Party and/or any other secular party.
After all, strategically, ideologically and historically, Erdogan has two regional enemies; the Kurds and Syria. We may indeed stretch this a bit and include a third enemy; the Shia. In saying this, if Erdogan indeed openly declares animosity towards the Shia, he would have to declare war on Iran. In this, he would be taking Turkey into an unprecedented, yet ideologically-predictable direction. He hasn’t gone this far and restricted his sectarian hatred to Shia Alawites in Syria alone, with the full knowledge that this would upset the millions of Turkish Alawites and cause sectarian tension in Turkey.
But there is the other aspect of Erdogan; the ethnic nationalist Turkman aspect. Turkey is an amalgam of cultures and races and a long history of ethnic rivalry and remnants of ancient empires. The Turkmans, Mongols by origin, were originally the founders of the Ottoman Empire who snatched the might and glory of Constantinople (later renamed Istanbul) from the Byzantines bringing to end the Orthodox dynasty of the Eastern Roman Empire.
The Ottoman takeover of Anatolia has forcefully changed its name, religion and language. Furthermore, ever since the foundation of the Ottoman Empire in the fifteenth century, the Turkmans had the upper hand leaving other races (Halks, as referred to in Turkish) in a disadvantageous and rather disgruntled position in which they feel that their power has been stripped away from them and that their citizenship is inferior to Turkmans.
During the early Ottoman days, Orthodox Christians had to choose between coercion to adopt Islam or remaining in their faith and facing discrimination. At later stages, Greeks and Armenians faced the same destiny. Then as the Ottoman Empire collapsed and France decided to give the Syrian regions of Celicia and Iskandarun as a consolation prize to Turkey, the Syrians, and of course Kurds were also left in the same disadvantageous position as other non-Turkman groups. By the way, Kurds are by-and-large the biggest ethnic group totaling approximately twenty five million in Turkey alone.
Furthermore, to say that Greeks have lived in Turkey would be an understatement. Historically-speaking, the Aegean Sea was the homeland of Hellenic culture that has spread on both sides of its shores. As a matter of fact, not too many people pay attention to the fact that the ancient “Greek” city of Troy is in today’s west coast of Turkey. Even today, Greek islands are visible from the western coast of Turkey, and in reality western Turkey is therefore historically Hellenic and as Greek as Athens.
It is not surprising and unusual at all therefore to hear in Turkey the reference to the term “Turkish Halkler” meaning “The Turkish Peoples” rather than “people”; a term that indicates divisions and underlies danger if and when those different “Halks” are in combat with one another; a direction towards which Turkey seems to be heading if the Kurdish-Turkman and the Sunni-Alawite divides intensify as they have been since Erdogan’s leading participation in the “War On Syria”.
It is ironic that Erdogan started his leadership by making very strong inroads towards reconciliation with the Kurds. However, when Erdogan wore the hat of the would-be Islamist Sultan, he decided to support the Islamists in their fight against secular Syria. His miscalculations led to the fact that the Syrian Kurds had to take up arms and defend themselves from those Islamists. Erdogan then had to also wear the hat of the Turkman zealot and turn against the Syrian Kurds, with the full knowledge that this would turn Turkish Kurds against him.
When the Kurds were pushed in between a rock and a hard place and had no option but to fight ISIL, Erdogan the MB man, put aside his political difference with ISIL and risked Turkish unity in siding against the Kurds. This is because Erdogan is first and foremost an Islamist, and secondly a Turkman zealot.
It is clear therefore that Erdogan puts his Islamist agenda before his Turkman agenda and before the unity and cohesiveness of Turkey.
Erdogan was prepared to risk everything good he has done, all of his achievements, and put the country on the verge of a civil war in order not to abandon his Islamist brothers and agenda. Now as Turkey quickly approaches the decisive November the 1st elections, Turkey is marred by ethnic divisions, civil unrest, sectarian divisions, risks of economic downfall that may ensue, and above all a series of terrorist attacks, the worst of which was the recent peace rally attack in Ankara.
Erdogan therefore may one day put on the hat of a reformer, then move on to be seen as the NATO man of the Levant. He may even fool some in the pro-Palestine lobbyists when he beats his chest when Israel attacked Gaza or killed many on board of the Mavi Marmara. Now, he wants to be seen as a national hero trying so hard to finally reach a benchmark that all of his predecessors failed to reach, and that is to join the EU, but if this is going to win him any votes, the clock is ticking fast and the first of November is not far away. He may also pose as the Turkman hero who carries the legacy of Turkman superiority like all of his Ottoman predecessors, but at the end of the day, he is simply a text book material Islamist with all the dogmatism and predictability that comes with it.
Articles like this are the reason I love this site. It is so vital to present the historical context of key players like Turkey and its leader. A context that you never get out of the main stream “media” these days including even NPR/PBS. Thanks for your hard work!
I avidly read everything posted here, and I always try to resist adding “Here, here! Bravo! etc…to the Comments at the bottom of the article, but in this case…”Here, here! Bravo!”
This is a wonderful site.
Thanks Ghassan…yeah, that sounds to me like its right about Ergodan being a MB before all else…too bad eh ? What a creep…I wish his head would get cut off..then maybe he’d know better.
This is good, but Turkish/Kurdish Alevis are not Alewites. Different cultures conquered by the Umayyid chose Shiaism out of resentment. Shiaism is obviously closer to the original meaning, early Islam was hijacked by the Umayyid clan. While presenting a more detailed, accurate view of early islamic history, the words and actions of the prophet, these small shia sects often carry on unislamic traditions. Turkish Alevism contains cultural traditions from pre-muslim Central Asia (Tengriism), while Syrian Alewites mix their ideological alignment to Ali with local Syrian (non-turkic) traditions. Both terms refer to Ali, it doesn’t mean it’s the same thing. Btw, generally, Kurdish Alevis are turks (kizilbash) who started speaking Kurdish when it was the local prestigue language. There are also a lot of crypto-armenians there, because Alevism is an exemplary religion, it protected them from genocide.
they are both trinitarians
Alawaties: Allah, and then the name, door, and the gate
Their theology is based on a divine triad,[58][64][65] or trinity, which is the core of Alawite belief.[66] The triad comprises three emanations of the one God: the supreme aspect or entity called the “Essence”[66] or the “Meaning”[65] (both being translations of ma’na), together with two lesser emanations known as his “Name” (ism), or “Veil” (hijab), and his “Gate” (bab).[64][65][66][67] These emanations have manifested themselves in different human forms over several cycles in history, the last cycle of which was as Ali (the Essence/Meaning), Muhammad (the Name) and Salman the Persian (the Gate).[64][66][67][68] Alawite belief is summarised in the formula: “I turn to the Gate; I bow before the Name; I adore the Meaning”. wikipedia
Alevites:
“Alevis believe in the unity of Allah, Muhammad, and Ali, but this is not a trinity composed of God and the historical figures of Muhammad and Ali. Rather, Muhammad and Ali are representations of Allahs light (and not of Allah himself), being neither independent from God, nor separate charactestics of Him.”
Also note that when Russians say Tatar, Mongol- they include Turks and a lot of other non-slavic eastern peoples.
Excellent briefing, sir.
Thank you for the thorough backgrounder on Turkey and Erdogan.
May his reign be short. Like his vision.
Thanks Saker and Kadi for interesting and informative articles.
I can’t help but notice that the comments section has really changed lately with more ‘annons’.
I miss many long time regulars such as Daniel R and Martin SEB – where are you guys?
Cheers
Moon of Alabama ?
‘Moon of Alabama’ …. Care to elaborate Ann??
We are not here to do cryptic crosswords.
More clues are needed as I don’t get what you are trying to say.
Sorry Babushka, I was just kind of tongue in cheek, because that’s a site that Penelope quotes alot from…I’ve never been there and won’t be going there.
I actually don’t know what happened to Martin…or Daniel Rich, but they are pretty fiery discontented people, so they left…oh well…
“I’ve never been there and won’t be going there.”
That’s a very odd statement to make.
why is that odd ? I don’t have any desire to check it out. I’m not an example and I’m a free person…that’s how I feel about that particular site…I actually don’t spend much time looking for stories…I’ mostly just read them here. there’s a few other sites I go to…RT for sure..I think they have good news stories…and I go to ICH and RI and Solari…that’s it.
@ Ann “I’ve never been there and won’t be going there.”
… then why bother to promote and draw attention the site MOA?
A site that, I recall was banned from commenting here.
Babushka, I was guessing when I read for the second time where you were wondering all your favorite commenters went …
And I’m not promoting it, by guessing that’s where they went…actually Penelope uses it alot but I don’t know where Martin went…and all…I just was replying to your plea…sorry if that was the wrong thing to do.
@ Ann: I was just kind of tongue in cheek, because that’s a site that Penelope quotes a lot from…
That’s an odd reason for a tongue-in-cheek statement.
There’s a Daniel Rich commenting on Russia Insider and Fort Russ Ann. Same one?
I think so.
Thanks for entering the fray UB
The November 1st election will be interesting.I haven’t seen a rundown yet of the different sides in the election.And I wonder ,A,if it will really take place.B,if it does take place.Will Erdogan’s party win.And if so will they win big enough to not need a coalition government.And C,if they lose,who will win.And how will Erdogan react to that.An interesting time coming up.
Bob, I get a definite feeling that Erdogan will ‘win’, no matter what.
this is OT…
In The Now, video from 3 days ago…interesting to see all the migrants running..pathetic really, but fully a big problem for Europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpeWyezuspM
Here is a video link for the Rise of Hezbollah – sympathetic to Hezbollah…very good…subtitles…with footage of a young Hassan Nasrallah…
https://youtu.be/K4khGxmckqU
I wonder if Putin had planned all this out from the beginning. I never understood the building of another Turkish pipeline at a time when Turkey was almost an enemy and Russia was almost locked out of the global gas market.. Turkey even used that to try to blackmail Russia many times and cancelling the pipeline and getting reduce gas prices and higher transit rates etc..
But looking at it now, it seems Putin has put Turkey into a bit of a spot.. Turkey needs to become the gas hub of Europe if they want to develop and turn themselves into a trade hub like Dubai. So this looks like Russia was sure that Assad wont go.. because if Assad went, both Iran and Russia would be in deep trouble.. Turkey can play everyone against each other but they can only do so much before appearing to be just another terrorist sponsor and without the money to throw around to make people forget.. Pepe just called erdo as sultan of terrorists.. I think the sultan has played all his cards including trying to get the US to attack Syria by giving their pet terrorists WMD’s.. Putin forgets nothing.. By being in Syria, sultan erdo has stuck his foot in far worse places than his mouth. He has no choice now.. With out the gas some other power center will form and take away all his advantages.. Imagine a gas hub forming in Syria where even gas from Qatar will be distributed by Russia companies. Iranian gas, Israeli gas, Egyptian gas.. If one looks at this as a business venture, it all makes sense as the next connection to Europe and transport and distribution center.. What makes all this possible is the experience and money and logistics to pull off such a mega venture. When you have a huge mall next door, no ones going to care about your little 7’eleven.. The sultan will find himself running an empty store with empty shelves if he pisses off Putin.. Even Israel realizes this, seems so does Jordan.. Turkey is the logical choice to build a world class gigantic next generation mall.. So the sultan better play ball.. Since the entire thing is going to be controlled by the Russians no one can talk about bias and underhandedness in it as that would be the most important criteria to provide equal access and fair prices for all. Eastern Europe still gets their gas, at prices much lower than they could from anywhere else.. Just not for the same low prices as when they were allies.. Each time they poke the bear the prices go up.. Maybe they should stop poking.. The poles after getting a trillion think they are super conning and conniving and super conners.. Yet now they pay the highest rates for gas in Europe.. makes you wonder just how smart they are.. They pay far higher rates than even Ukraine. They should ask Germany for another trillion..
” But looking at it now, it seems Putin has put Turkey into a bit of a spot.”
:-)
Memo to Politicians: Be careful what you say in public, Putin might take you at your words.
all in all you are quite right. The only thing you have to correct are the gas prices. The poles pay quite high prices but the highest is payed by the bulgarians.
Another great article by Ghassan Kadi. I was always perplexed by Erdogan – now things start making sense…
It looks like we have first Russian helicopter down, MI-8:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wTABTiGHxY&feature=youtu.be
MI-8 is transport helicopter. Probably belongs to the SAA. If the vid is valid at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDxZHMOOWAI
march 3rd 2013 by RT на русском
It looks that the clip was posted by some Ukropian! How very interesting!
How exactly can you know that this was a Russian helicopter?
Even if it was, it will not change a thing. ISIS will not be allowed to exist, neither will al-Nusra be allowed to survive. They will either be captured, flee or be killed.
There’s no other way this can play out.
The comments say the video is from 2013.And one of them posted about the original video.So it looks like a fake Ukie/ISIS co-production.Pretty sad when you are shilling for ISIS.Not sure how even Ukies can stomach that.But I guess when you hate yourselves that much you’ll do anything,no matter how vile it is.
As an Islamist, ideologically-speaking, there is no difference at all between Erdogan and any ISIL member. They are both driven by the same doctrine that is based on Quranic misinterpretations, and both driven by the same passion and seeking the same objectives of turning the whole world into an Islamic state run by Sharia law.
Yup. Their goals are all the same; they just disagree on the means. For Erdo-war, the path to sharia is through the ballot box. “Democracy” he once said “is like a streetcar. You ride it until you arrive at your destination and then you step off.”
That “Democracy” he once said “is like a streetcar. You ride it until you arrive at your destination and then you step off.” reminded me of Józef Piłsudski (as Wikipewdia puts it, because i am in no position to have any kind of pretence of even basic knowledge about Polen’s history).
(I had to check on that, given that Polen taking part in the grab in Munich paved the way for the coming catatrophy, if i understood the “logic” of fierce anti-communism opening the doors wide open to Nazi-Germany.
As Piłsudski was dead he never had to endorse or negate Munich. Let us hope that Erdogan will politically die in the November 1st election and thus be saved the resurection of the Kurd republic along the lines of the Sèvres treaty.)
Totalitarians of all shades and garbs tend to share commun attitudes towards whatever type of demoncraty we kan think of.
Guy, I think that Sultan Erdogan will ‘get off the streetcar (‘Desire’ surely)on November 1.
Dear Ghassan Kadi,
Thank you again for another excellent piece on Turkey. I travelled there too in the pre-Erdogan days of the early 90’s and the army was a dominant force along with Ataturk’s legacy. Erdogan has, as you rightly pointed out, dismantled all of that (secular) to create his MB Sultanate.
I think there is another angle to him which is greed and delusion of his greatness…..power corrupts and he is now totally corrupted.
There is also the other facet of Gulen in the background, which you may wish to discuss at a later date. The US uses this tool.
mmiriww, your post above is also another crucial point in this political chess story. Thanks.
Rgds,
Veritas
Allow me to disagree with this ideological/historical take on the situation.
I would rather focus on material (economic) and geostrategic interests in explaining the situation.
Turkey is a member of NATO (one of the founding ones, and cornerstone of that alliance) and by definition part of the US Empire that arose at the end of WWII.
Erdogan is therefore a vassal, a satrap, a local representative of that mighty US Empire. Just like his the Kemalist governments of yesteryear.
The difference between Erdogan and his Kemalist representatives is that Turkey nowadays is a lot stronger than the Turkey of the Cold war period, which was nothing more than a middling (in terms of population) and quite poor and underdeveloped power in terms of economics.
This has been changing over the past decade and a half, with Turkey now being quite populous and also having undergone some significant economic growth.
Moreover, the exhaustion of Europe’s energy resources, means that Turkey’s geo-strategic value has shot through the roof. Any prospective pipelines that bypass Russia (the primary goal of the US Empire in Europe) necessarily have to go through Turkey. Erdogan is basically trying to make Turkey the vital pipeline transit country. Something that will bequeath considerable leverage.
This is the reason behind the alliance between Erdogan, and the KSA/Qatar/UAE/Kuwait savages, under the aegis of the US Empire, to which all of these powers are answerable to. It is not ideology, or Islamism or some distant historical past that pulls these savages together. No, it’s economic (in the form of oil & gas) and strategic overlapping of interests. What Pepe Escobar calls, “Pipelinestan”.
On the other hand, Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria do not want to see this happening. For Russia it will mean the loss of the European gas import market (which is said to grow immensely over the next years/decades since domestic production will keep on shrinking) For Iran, it means that shitty-little Qatar will keep on stealing gas from it from the colossal “Norther Dome-South Pars” field (an area which the two countries share) at increased rates. Also, for both Russia and Iran, a victory for the US Empire in the ME will mean the loss of tremendous amount of strategic depth. A US Empire victory in the ongoing war will mean that both Syria and Iraq are torn into mini-states (Zbig’s strategy of choice) and largely fall into the hands of the various US Imperial vassals, primarily Turkey and Israel. The threat level for both Russia and Iran will increase many fold. The ISIS goons, will now be directly deployed against them. Oh, and the fall of Syria, will also mean the total and complete annihilation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
For China also, the fall and destruction of Syraq, would mean the loss of “strategic depth”, with the US Empire now able to immensely tighten the noose around China’s borders and even infiltrate with ISIS Uighour goons. Another serious issue, is that China wishes to have Iran both as a strategic partner, and a source of hydrocarbons. In the grand scheme of things, China (and I would also add, India) want to have Iran’s future gas pipelines (remember, Iran is only 2nd to Russia when it comes to natural gas reserves) heading eastwards, not westwards. The US Empire on the other hand, want the exact opposite to happen. This is because, if China and India have to buy nat gas in LNG form through the oceans, then that means two things:
a) They will be at the mercy of the US Navy.
b) Their costs of production will be higher, making them less competitive in the global marketplace.
What is basically happening now is this: Russia fights for long-oppressed Eurasian countries such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, China and India. The US Empire (through her ISIS legions) fights on to keep their long-held privileges, and even extend them. Oh, Russia also fights for Russia!
Of course, all wars are sold by governments and leaders in some kind of ideological/religious terms.
In the Middle Ages, the wars were about trade routes (for spices, salt etc) but were justified in religious terms.
Nowadays, the wars are about oil, gas and pipelines, but they are justified through so-called adherence to democracy (LOL) human rights etc…
Excellent tour of the strategic positioning of global rivals and regional groupings.
Cheers!
Very good.
But why does Erdogan want to roll back the secularization achieved by Ataturk?
It seems like playing the religious card creates so many more problems, domestically and in the near abroad.
Katherine
I think that Erdogan is playing the Islamic card for mainly three reasons:
a) Support from Turkey’s vast interior population and not just the urban elites of Istanbul etc. Islamism is usually the ideology of the masses in Muslim society (especially in the absence of a powerful secular left party) This has also been the case to an extent in Egypt and Syria. This is also why so many leftists in Europe have been so easily duped by the “Arab Spring” narrative. The CIA and Mossad are playing western leftists for fools. They are tricking the poor in those countries.
b) In order to sideline the old Kemalist elites, that were 100% subservient to the West. Erdogan has been much more demanding of the West in relation to his Kemalist predecessors. This also allows him to differentiate from the old (and corrupt) Kemalist elites and create his own social/ideological power-base.
c) Turkey was never much liked in the Arab world. The cover of a new-found Islamism however, has changed that to a degree. Just witness Erdogans hypocritical chest-thumping against Israel in alleged solidarity with Israel.
I think there is a “d” you left out.He is sincerely an Islamist.He believes that Turkey shouldn’t be a secular Western style Republic.But turn inward to its old Muslim Ottoman Pan-Turkic roots.The Attaturk era ended that.And his is a form of a “counter-revolution” against that period.I can’t say I agree with him.But I don’t doubt he thinks that way. It of course doesn’t hurt for him that, if he succeeds he will make himself almost a new “Sultan”,just under another title.
Seems Hezbollah has packed up and left Syria..
So now they are putting on these fake funerals for their dead warriors.. All the crying and heart break due to lost, sons, husbands and fathers.. They must be really great actors.. They even put up pictures of their soldiers everywhere to remind people that freedom from imperialism is not without cost and hardship. Over 600 dead by now.. But far better to die in a foreign land than have your children get blown up in school or the mall at home if they lose.
Eight Hezbollah fighters slain in Syria at weekend
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Oct-26/320221-eight-hezbollah-fighters-slain-in-syria-at-weekend.ashx
I really don’t care about any side in the Middle East but I have to say that it defies logic to think that Hezbollah would leave Syria because of 8 dead individuals.
If one looks at what is at stake here for Lebanon as a country one can only conclude that not even 80.000 dead Hezbollah soldiers could be a cause for withdrawal, same as 100.000 dead dead SAA soldiers did not cause Assad to give up.
The only thing I wonder is if you are an Ukrainian nationalist supporting islamist extremist or if you are a islamist extremist yourself.
Unless they are not needed anymore in Syria I doubt Hezbollah would leave.They have the most to lose with a Syrian defeat.Russia and Iran much less.Its very unlikely they don’t know that.That link is an pro-US stooge site.The comments are “dripping” with pro-empire and Islamist posts.There are some idiots in Lebanon not aware of their fate if Syria falls.The vast Christian and Shia communities,as well as the secular Sunnis will be “fresh meat” for ISIS head choppers.I really can’t find much sympathy for those that stand in the way of those trying to save them.And just willingly let themselves be slaughtered without a fight.
Okay I was making fun of our Mohamed…
I should have /sarcasm in there…
Being a Syrian catholic in my younger days I am sure I would have been there with hiz.. But at this time I think I would be more of a burden and get myself killed the first day.. But the Hix is there to stay, they will never leave until IS is done with. Its an existential threat to anyone who is of another religion just like how Iraq was purged off anyone except muslims who are blowing each other up by now.
One day the Wahhabist cancer will have to be cut out at its root-the House of Saud.
More on the actually on Hezbollah – they re not going anywhere:
https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2015/01/22/report-41196/
The Quinetra attacks – six missiles into its heart from Israel – have revealed further collusion between Saudi and Israel – the ISIL command centre was under their Intel services control.
Jeez.
What are Americans doing to let billions of arms (paid for with their taxes) go to propping up these corrupt, violent regimes?
The article you posted is from January 24, 2015.
It is entirely possible Hezbollah is repositioning itself for an expected incursion into Lebanon and Syria.
This thing ain’t over yet.
Israel controls US politics through the money power of the Jewish Fifth Columns at home, and Saudi Arabia guarantees the petro-dollar, the last remaining economic ace up Mordor-on-the-Potmac’s sleeve. That’s why the USA props up its fellow violent, corrupt, regimes.
Please , Refrain from posting such nonsense,Just makes you out to be a intellectual idiot
I would like to ask that you not give advice and suggestions to other posters as to what they can or cannot post. If moderators are OK with it, then it’s ok.OK? :)
thanks Ghassan for a very insightful analysis.
I would argue that Erdogan’s economic “achievements” are nothing more than a credit -fuelled boom, combined with speculative foreign currency inflows. Below the surface, there have been no meaningful reforms of the Turkish economy…
In addition to being the “hero” of Turkmen and NATO, Erdogan is also the hero of the Bosnian muslims. They love their turkish neo-ottoman so much they even threw a birthday party for him in Bosnia last year.
Serbian girl, a video for you to watch, who is that lady who interviewed Imran Hosein?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXVmJ6WmYT0
Thanks anonymous, I hadn’t seen this one.
She has the same name (Vesna Pesic) as one of our former politicians who was very pro-US, president of the NED in Belgrade. But this interviewer is not her…she simply has the same name.
A very informative article….thank you.
Here is a very good article re-posted from a blog called ‘Arms Control Wonk’
http://russia-insider.com/en/military/how-russias-cruise-missiles-change-strategic-military-balance/ri10730
It goes into great detail about the potential of the recent cruise missile launch from the Caspian Sea.
The Buyan corvettes can navigate most of the Volga,Don and tributaries right up to the Moscow river.
These missiles are also capable of being launched from shipping containers………..as the auther writes….”A game changer”
The spokesman for ISIS/Nusra (Charles Lister) is claiming that MANPADS will be given to “select groups” by early November.
If that is so (which I doubt, but not completely discount) what do you think would be the appropriate response on Russia’s part?
a) Provide the Houthis/Hezbollah/PKK with similar weapons, or
b) Something even more drastic.
I think A “and” B is the right way to go.Certainly A,right at the start.But a string of bombs going of in the transport hubs for those weapons.We all know how “unstable” those weapons must be.So,”tragic accidents” can happen.And its a “shame” if it killed some of the foreign operatives involved in that shipping as well.If the message wasn’t “received” correctly,option C and D should be on the table next.
Thank you so much Ghassan for this brilliant illumination of the Enigma That Is Erdogan.
I have been pretty ambivalent about him, knowing he has done a lot for Turkey but also that he has been instrumental in bringing death and destruction to Syria and to the Kurdish region of Turkey.
I would love to read your take on what is happening re the dam-building in Turkey, the manipulations of the Euphrates flow into Syria and Iraq and what role Israel plays in these schemes.
Yes, I am sorry they seem to be missing too – both good commenters, even if I didn’t agree with all their views or share their perceptions. Both pretty good guys.
Martin seemed pretty stressed so maybe he’s just taking a little time out. I worried about his blood pressure..:)
But there’s always a chance they’ll come back.
Elsi has also been unusually quiet – I hope she hasn’t gone. I want to know what she thinks about what’s happened in Portugal.
Hi eimar, do not worry, I am still here, only going out some days on vacation, which I needed after a really hard year for me, unaccustomed as I am to suffer health issues and to be a patient. This is new for me and also hard, being me who normally cares of others, and also was very hard for me when I lost independence for all, even for my own personal cleanliness….Now all is resolved and I am well again, totally recovered.
Tell me, what happened with Daniel Rich and with Martin from S.E.B? I also regret if they have gone for ever, even though not always understood what Daniel was really meaning in his posts, probably because of my scarce English, but I agree with you that both seemed good guys.
And what happened in Portugal, about which you wanted me to comment about? Sorry to say but when I am on vacation I try to disconnect from almost all, including internet and news….I really need it…, then I come back with renewed energy. Other years I have accomplished this goal better that this one by going out also from my Western culture, but this year could not plan my holidays properly because of my recovery from an unfortunate elbow fracture, not knowing in enough advance when doctors will free me.
That´s life.
Cheers!
@Stavros
Excellent post.
But maybe you and Ghassan are both right?
The Islamic Republic of Iran emerged from a revolution against the secular/materialist regime of the Shah. And it is far more pacifist in ideology than the secular regime it replaced – particularly its championship of NPTs.
So not all governments are using religion as a veil for material advantage – some of them mean it.
I think Erdogan is not just materialist in ambition – he is also a neo-Ottoman supremacist.
And if he perceives Putin as a rival Russian Tsar, he could easily go into ‘irrational’ mode.
I am convinced Putin cultivates a low-key persona to this end. He knows the power of these Grand Delusions.
Of course ideologies and religions play their roles, and of course Erdogan is partly driven by them, as for example with his neo-Ottoman “dream”.
But I prefer to focus on the meat and potatoes, rather than the salad dressing.
Pawns on the ground are very often driven by ideology, but the people pulling the strings behind them are far more pragmatic.
Sure, there are instances in which you can point to major powers and argue that they were driven primarily by ideology. The USSR was the prime example. Had the USSR been under the influence of a leader such as Deng Xiaoping (who quickly realized the stupidity of ideological dogma) it would have never have collapsed, and would today probably be the number one power on the planet in all respects.
The USA today is partly an ideological power. They US rulers are largely cynical by a great many things, but still have some ideological blind spots, such as leaving most key economic infrastructure and assets into the hands of an oligarchy, which they romanticize as some kind of super-race of brilliant “entrepreneurs”.
Breaking Bad… This is what eurdo and the Saudi’s call more support for moderate terrorists.. It is like meth where it gives them short term strength and keeps them alert and awake.. So pretty much these are disposable jihadis since withdrawal is going to be a real problem.. All Russia needs to do to defeat yea defeat these guys is to destroy the drug route. All the jihadis will come out of the wood work after a week of not getting their daily hit and run around trying to steal one from some other gentler head chopper..
Two tonnes of drugs were seized by Beirut airport security officials after a Saudi prince attempted to smuggle them on private jet
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-prince-arrested-massive-drug-bust-beirut-airport-316006623
As they say in real estate, it’s location, location, location.
Turkey is a bridge and nexus of space and time. Bordered by three seas and three straits with a trinitarian theology. Its land mass looks rectangular, more or less like the US and Russia. And a melting pot like them.
No wonder Erdogan acts like a turkey with its head cut off.
I once visited Istanbul with its famous market. What a scene. Not exactly my dream.
May peace be upon you, beloved Turks. If you really do need an ideology, why not try love? It would put Turkey’s head on straight.
-Courtesy of thelovegovernment.com.
I agree it’s a nice location, so let’s not forget who the true owners of that real estate are.
A squatter, even if he has been there a long time, is still just a squatter..
I know this is blundering into someone else’s history. My interest in your answer is however genuine. The argument from occupation and prior occupation can surely only get you so far. X says their lot have lived there 1000 years. Y says their lot lived there 1000 years before that, so it’s really theirs. Archaeologists unfortunately discover that prior to that ancestors of some Z lived there, although to be honest the genetics suggests ancestral Zs remained, as did ancestral Ys and some Xs are Ys and… Eventually we’re all staking our claim to some small part of Africa where our ancestors all came from… We surely have to bring in other methods as well to settle such disputes – and like a lot of legal procedures it’s going to look fairly arbitrary. It should be obvious I haven’t a clue. What is it makes you more confident?
Ewan, Erdogan makes statements like: “The Balkans are the heart of Turkey” and “Kosovo is Turkey, Turkey is Kosovo” , so I couldn’t resist making a dig, referring to him as a squatter….of course it’s very immature and childish of me.
You’re right with what you’re saying, although I wouldn’t bother with the legal stuff at all. It would appear real estate belongs to the people who can defend it.
It’s best not to respond to him in his terms. – It would be good to have some generally accepted norms that would make it difficult for him to believe anyone would take him seriously when he talks such incendiary rubbish. You’re right of course about might. The purpose of norms, international law and international institutions (such as President Putin advocates), is to try against all the odds to restrict recourse to force, Difficult, but we have to hope not impossible (which is why the decline of US hegemony is promising, but only if there is a robust legal framework, otherwise we’ll be in for a Time of Troubles).
In my day dreams I think how nice it would have been (for all Europe) if the Roman Empire (Romania in those days) had not fallen to the Turkic invasions.But seriously,that was so long ago there is no changing it today.The millions of “Turks” that are assimilated “Romanians”,are now fully “Turks”.So we really can’t say the Turks are squatters any longer.Its always good to remember too that when the Slavs came to the Balkans they were also “squatters” and assimilated with the remnants of the peoples that lived there at the time.Now after over a thousand years those peoples are one.But at the time ,and for years after they weren’t.
New linguistical, archaeological, historical approaches to the problem of the Slavs tend increasingly to show that the present day Slavs of the Balkans are the straight descendants of the Thracians, therefore autochtonous. On another hand, which is more important, they have adopted Christianity and not destroyed it like the Turks. The Turks remain the interlopers in a world where they do not belong, no matter how glorious and magnificent the Ottoman Empire was, or how much “Europenized” they try to look nowadays (attempts on the vane, anyhow).
Yes, yes, yes (location, location, location!
Turkey is kind of like a minicontinent.
It seems like the farther east you go, the more muddled things become with Turkey—the less clear the country’s outlines become, in more than one sense. The western half of Turkey is, actually, a huge peninsular. Then it all peters out in mountains. Having a border that is somewhere in the middle of various mountain chains seems like a recipe for confusion. The best country borders are oceans. That was the luck of the Yanks and their Manifest Destiny ideology. Where does Erdogan actually propose to stop?
Katherine
Well,the Pan-Turkic dream that some Turks flirt with (Erdogan maybe) envisions a “Turkey” uniting all Turkic inhabited areas,in the Caucasus and Central Asia into China.While the Islamist dream (also possibly Erdogan) envisions a “Caliphate” covering all the Islamic World.In Islam nationality is subservient to Religion.Somewhat like the ideas of the “Roman Empire” after it became Christian.Where the whole of “Christendom” was supposed to be under the rule of the Universal Empire.So who knows,maybe his dreams are quite large,or maybe not.
Off topic, but at the same time also related
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO0S6j2Zsqo
Hi Anon…interesting title “13 families rule our planet”
but I would like to differ…”13 families that TRY to rule our planet” They can’t rule you if they aren’t accepted by your inner self. Really…
I know people think I’m crazy, but … God and the Spiritual Hierarchies rule our planet. And the scum underneath the crust of the earth are trying to get as many sleepers as possible to fulfill their evil agenda.
But Truth will prevail, if we so choose.
A calm Crosstalk with excellent commentary by Marc Slevoda and others
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/319665-russia-us-syria-war/
One must not confuse alawites in turkey with alawites in syria. Alawites in Turkey are crypto jews like young turks. Listen to this gentleman what he said about this particular sect in Turkey:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buAZblIg1aM
the hegemon is winning some dangerous ground in Latin America. Middle class is so stupid to vote for the right in Guatemala and Argentina, soon Venezuela and Brazil will fall under them aswell.
Poor Argentina, they voted to return to 2003. Congratulations, enjoy been in your knees to the FMI again.
Yes, things are going the wrong way in Latin American in recent years.
Especially worrying is Venezuela and Brazil.
The good thing is that those countries still need Russian and especially China, so the prospect of going back to full-blown puppet governments is not so likely.
Stavros, ‘democracy’ only ever works one way in capitalist states. Venezuela and Brazil were ‘bad examples’ that Uncle Satan waited out, knowing that as long as the economy was controlled by a tiny stratum, the MSM was entirely in their hands, and an open, Free Market, financial system meant that the USA could crush their economies by flows in and out of ‘hot money’, that eventually their stooges would come back to power. The same could happen in Russia, particularly if Putin had an ‘accident’ like Chavez.
re-posted from ‘The Burning Platform’
Sharia Law: She’s buried chest high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vOIbgd5qcrg
Hat tip Boston Bob.
I would add, that in Britain sharia law is allowed,but not the stoning of women.
Women are still mutilated,but not by nose cutting or stoning, a woman even having a non muslim male friend, runs the risk of having acid thrown in their face.
Mysogyny ??………you must have a male chaperone……you cannot drive a car or leave the house without permission
being blinded for life,at 20..24.. just because you like someone ?
Every year this happens and people are sick of it!!!!!.
The british people never ever voted for this sh*t
50 years ago the British people loathed most Pakistanis,and still do!.
By the same token, Indian Hindu’s were always accepted as decent people,skilled, talented and beautiful.
I am certain that responsible leaders will eventually deal with this Salafist Wahhabi filth.
But the cancer in your midst……….. ???
Better yet let’s hope the leader’s responsible for this get some Sharia law themselves.
RR
Dear Ghassan,
Thank you again for appearing on my radio show and crediting me with inspiring this piece. I’m really glad to know that our conversation steered you in the direction of writing this amazing article. It’s the best thing I’ve ever read about Erdogan — clear, concise, and cutting. Amazing work, this is truly a classic piece.
Best,
Andrew
Thank you so much Andrew. It’s always a pleasure talking to you personally or on your show.
What immediately comes to mind concerns Merkel’s closeness to Erdogan and her recent big give on the issue of Turkish acsession to the EU. All in the dying moments of an exceptionally brutal and bloody election campaign which Erdogan seems likely to lose (or at least, not win). Merkel basically offered the Turks everything they have wanted historically for entry into the EU clique of whores yet Davutoglu’s cold response — talking of red lines — suggests something is amiss. The additional demands made by Davutoglu basically required Germany to position itself more directly against Russia in Syria. This seems like an insane position for Davutoglu to take given what Turkey stands to lose as the crisis they’ve been so integral to making spins out of control.
Or maybe Davutoglu would prefer to see Erdogan take the fall and himself become a fully empowered Prime Minister. It wouldn’t surprise and if anything I think Davutoglu might be an even nastier character than the would-be Sultan. Both Israel and Turkey have a strong interest in not seeing Russia and Syria succeed in destroying the terrorist army.
Rumours of Merkel’s own imminent demise continue to sweep Germany and watching the (not so) good frau’s political contortionism act is tiring me out. Perhaps the bosses at NATO intend to replace her with a more pliant figure like her defense minister Ursula von der Leyen although I’m really not up on what is happening politically in Germany. There must be a ferocious power struggle going on there as well but I doubt Merkel will ever go willingly — even to become UN secretary general as some have suggested.
I don’t for one moment believe Erdogan’s main goal is accession to the EU. To any rational Turkish leader Merkel’s offer would be seen as similar to a Casino offering a badly losing patron all of his money back and a free car if he just leaves the building.
Erdogan wants to be Sultan. That is his only objective and he has perhaps a third of Turkey very soldly behind him.The idea has either been put or gotten into his own head so firmly that nothing will make him let go.
Hey Elsi – great to see you posting again!
Knew you had a problem with your arm, but didn’t realise you had other health issues.
So glad you recovered.
Hugs!!
Ps Don’t have a link to hand about Portugal, but maybe I should leave it until Saker has a look – its his blog.
Pps That was a fascinating post from you about Yemen. I will check the links soon. The latest is that Saudi has hit an MSF hospital there – just like the US in Afghanistan.
Hmmm. I wonder if MSF has behaved in some displeasing way to the hegemon and allies?
Welcome back!!:)
I sounds right. I am fresh from a European trip which ended in Istanbul, where I spent few days. I visited Turkey a few years ago. Even then I noticed the great number of women wearing the scarf and long overcoats. Although
Turkey produces wine and beer, I was refused the in some restaurants.
This time the number of scarfed women increased tenfold by my estimation. I was refused wine or beer in many restaurants and even given a bad look when I asked for (and that after I was literally pulled the sleeve to eat at their joints – they were positively aggressing you in the street).
But what irked me even more was the (not so) subtle change in the presentation of the Aya sophia. All the texts were emphasizing the Muslim character of the “Mosque”, the Christian past increasingly obscured. All that after Erdogan celebrated the “liberation” of Constantinople from the dark Byzantine “oppression”. The fact that Mahomet himself predicted the conquest of Konstantinya is much stressed also, for the dummies to understand.
By becoming a Sunni Islamist zealot Erdogan has disturbed Saudi Arabia as he appeared as he was trying to steal its position of the Sunnu leadership in the region.
This is why Saudi Arabia hates Erdogan more than they hate the Shias. Saudi Arabia has been fighting Turkey’s influence in the Arab world while appearing to be on the same side.
That’s why Turkey is now isolated, weakened and rejected by the Arabs. This underground war between Saudi Arabia and Turkey has also contributed to put oil on the fire of Syria
The article neatly shows us that Islamic policy is trumping sovereign policy in Turkey just now. This implies geopolitical influence from the centres of Islamic policy: Saudi Arabia specifically, and also Qatar if we are going to pretend that a wee oil well manned by foreign slaves can be called a state.
The very great danger to Turkey, therefore, is that Russia seems to have declared Islamic policy to be a clear and present danger to Russia’s national security.
Without stepping into the merits of that Russian policy choice, it does seem that Prince Bandar may have erred by threatening Russia with Islamic terrorist action at Sochi, if that story is actually true.
The house of Saud have decided to stamp their authority in the region with conventional and unconventional forces, and the alliance between Saudi money and Turkish logistics are the fundamental life blood of ISIS and the FSA.
If Russia has decided to end the export of Islamic policy by this alliance, we may expect to see the war in the region ultimately consume Saudi Arabia, as well as ending Turkey as the unified state we know today. There is increasing evidence that the Russian end game includes a balkanised Turkey and regime change in Saudi Arabia.
A few short months ago this would have sounded preposterous, but the facts on the ground right now suggest that it is very likely indeed.
Note well that both the Turkish air force and the Israeli air force have been grounded by Russian electronic warfare capabilities. The Syrian army, with Iranian contingents, are now fighting with Russian air cover in the Golan Heights. Israel is out of the game. In the Golan Heights. Note this day in your strategic diary, that hasn’t been true since Jimi Hendrix was alive.
On top of that, Turkish air power has also been removed from the equation in northern Syria.
I don’t think the Russian’s want regime change in Turkey. They want to make an example of Erdogan, they want his legacy to be the balkanization, ruin and end of the great Turkish state.
With regard to Saudi Arabia, I fear regime change is almost certain for a whole bunch of practical reasons, not least is the need to comprehensively mitigate the philosophies of the Wahhabi brand of Islam.
My comments on this article:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/who-is-erdogan/
Kind regards,
Dutch
So what are the actually demographics on the ground? Do the MB and affiliates outnumber the rest of Turkish society? To give us a better idea of the balance of forces and which way things may swing-regardless of which mask Erdogan finds convenient at the moment.
Ethnic groups Turkish 70-75%, Kurdish 18%, other minorities 7-12% (2008 est.)
Religions Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), other 0.2% (mostly Christians and Jews)
Population mainly urban and educated……to me this doesn’t bode well for a Turkish Caliphate.