Dear friends,
Since I am going to be very busy until Monday morning, I want to leave you with a “semi-open thread”. If you see something interesting, by all means please post it here. If not, I would like to survey your opinions on two questions:
- In the latest gas deal between the EU, the Ukraine and Russia – who won and who lost? (The junta in Kiev? Russia? The EU? Novorussia? The US? The oligarchs? Gazprom?)
- Who won and who lost in the latest Ukrainian elections? What is the most important conclusion you make from these results?
I will give you my take on this on Monday when I also hope (time permitting) to record my first podcast. I will make this first one “hyper-informal” so please feel free to post any questions (not here!! and not by email either!! but here: http://10.16.86.131/podcast-project-lets-give-it-a-first-try-okay-2/) and please feel free to make them questions as informal as you want. I see this podcast as a chat amongst good friends, not a “proper” and uptight academic exercise. Even the topics discussed do not need to be serious. If you want to discuss music, or philosophy – please do so. I will try to answer as many questions as I can, though I will only answer those inspiring me to answer in the first place (troll, idiots and provocateurs will be ignored). Anyway – you can post question until Sunday 1800 GMT/UTC.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
@Penny
I don’t see people agreeing to an Ebola vaccine. I mean everyone can see it is very very hard to ct5ch. and it won’t spread to their countries unless it is imported by ONE person. They are more likely to insist on travel bans to some places, or compulsory quarantine.
By all means let WHO have some vaccines. Everyone going to work with Ebola patients should get the vaccine first, ie before they go. That way they dont import it back into their own countries.
Don’t forget when articles quote some foreign sources “Vaccine” does not mean something preventative. In many cases they mean “serum” which could be also a concoction to effect a cure.
This is one scare that did not take off, and I don’t see any country where people would agree to a vaccination campaign. Even just seriously proposing it would be a dream come true for the anti-vacc movement, too.
An interesting list of Donbass election observers at this website:
http://anton-shekhovtsov.blogspot.ca/2014/11/fake-monitors-observe-fake-elections-in.html?m=1
Yea! They did it!
I would agree that Paul Craig Roberts is well meaning and not a shill. He just doesn’t get it that Russia always saddles up slow – when she is confident that she has the luxury of time. Americans tend to shoot from the hip – because they have the luxury to do so because of their immense power. As Saker has pointed out previously, Russia is relatively weak. But that does not mean that Putin is weak. Putin is very cautious because he knows very well that Russia is not ready.
Just came across a pessimistic analysis of the parliamentary elections that takes into account the half of candidates that were directly-elected.
The site often cheerleads for NATO, but this account isn’t triumphalist:
http://www.carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=57086
I asked my Russian colleague in Moscow what he thought of the gas deal. He didn’t respond in terms of “who won in the deal.” Mainly, he expresses compassion for the people of Ukraine. Obviously, most Russians have relatives etc. there. It just seems that the region now known as Ukraine has always been a locus of strife and that current Ukrainian politicians can be expected to continue the tradition of untrustworthiness when it comes to paying their bills. It seems incredible to me that the “free market” west seems to condone this deadbeatism. Obviously, a market economy or any economy is dependent on people paying bills. Basically, withholding payment of monies owed under contract under threat of punitive action is, obviously, some form of racketeering, extortion, etc. Have any international bodies set forth a definition of international racketeering/extortion? ANyh0w, As he says: Poor people! Here are his comments:
“It is a good news that the Ukrainian government ultimately got guaranties of credit line from the European Commission. Ukraine can now redeem the old debt and pay in advance for new deliveries of gas by Gazprom. It is important that the Ukrainians fully agreed on initial Gazprom’s contract terms, which include a generous price discount. It took half a year to reach this agreement. The problem is that nobody guarantees that the Ukrainians will pay even if they receive the money [from the West]. It may happen, for example, that if Russia recognizes the election in Donetsk, the US will decide to impose new sanctions. Then the Ukrainians may renege on their promises and threat again to provoke a new gas crisis in Europe. This threat may be used as a lever against Russia. Ukrainian authorities have a very bad track record as partners in gas deals and the issue of reputation does not matter for them.
I regret ordinary people in Kiev and other cities in Ukraine that have no heating, no warm water and even no light. Electric power has been switched off because people had to use electric facilities to warm their apartments. Poor people! Junta leaders promised them that they would live as in Europe but now they have to live as in war time (let alone those in East Ukraine who have survived after the civil war). “
The story of the gas
Russia never intended for the Ukrainian people to freeze. But they also didn’t want to never get paid.
The reverse-flow arrangements took months to decide and months to build. It was all done with public announcements and discussions. Gazprom recently claimed it was illegal, ie breach of contract, for other countries to resell gas they buy from Gazprom. But for 7 months of reverse-flow talk they just vaguely said “take a closer look at the contracts”.
All 3 can stand on the technicality that not all their gas comes from Russia, so they can do what they like with what thy get frm other sources.
Gazprom then DID nothing while reverse-flow filled Ukraine’s storage half full. Then they slowed Poland’s and Slovakia’s supplies for a few days, to say “enough”. Hungary stopped voluntarily after talking with Gazprom — a move ever since touted as Hungary being too close to Russia. All 3 reverse-flow countries then stated to get super high levels of supplies from Gazprom, so their storages can be totally filled. This is a backstop against maybe having to slow/stop supplies later if/when Ukraine doesn’t pay after all — or starts to steal too much.
All this coincided with further talks to force Ukraine to cough up. But they have enough stored to last at least to the end of the year, and the neigbours won’t be hurt by any short-term stoppages needed to encourage the next payment. In fact they may even have enough left to give Ukraine a little bit. I have absolutely no idea how they are getting paid, unless they’ve bought goods from Ukraine and can somehow hold back the payment for those.
Anyway, Gazprom has timed its warnings, turning a blind eye, more warnings, a few quick turn-offs, exactly in a way that ensures Ukrainians will NOT freeze to death, but scares their irresponsible masters into paying up.
Good comment, KatKan. Putin, of all people, with his own tragic family background, will not let the innocent citizens of Ukraine, who are held hostage by the February coup, freeze to death. He is not Army Group North, and he will not fall prey to those accusations. Eventually, Southstream will go on line, and Ukrainian authorities will have to face reality.
A bit more detail on the gas deal. $1.45B past payment now, $750M advance for Nov now, $750M advance for Dec at end Nov, $1.65B past payment end Dec, $759M advance for Jan end Dec, and same onwards. This is a lot of money. especially as Ukrainian gas customers do not seem to pay a lot for their gas, so Naftogaz have an income problem.
MOSCOW, October 31. /TASS/. The deadline for Ukraine to repay the remaining gas debt is not stipulated in an interim deal reached between Moscow and Kiev, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said on Friday.
A corresponding decision will be made by the Stockholm Arbitration Tribunal, Miller told Rossiya-24 TV Channel.
Russian natural gas deliveries to Ukraine will resume 48 hours after Kiev repays the first $1.45 billion portion of its gas debt and makes an advance payment, Miller said. “Two days after the terms of the agreement signed on October 30 are fulfilled, the deliveries will be resumed,” the Gazprom CEO said.
Ukraine does not rule out a possibility of increasing natural gas purchases by the end of the year above the volume of 4 billion cubic meters stipulated in the “winter package,” Miller said. The Ukrainian side mentioned the volume of up to 7 billion cubic meters of natural gas on the sidelines of the gas talks, the Gazprom head said.
The Russian government may sign a resolution on a $100 gas price discount for Ukraine on Friday, Miller said. “We expect that the resolution may be signed already on October 31,” Miller told Rossiya-24 TV Channel.
The situation on the market will determine the gas price for Ukraine in the first quarter of the year 2015, Miller told reporters earlier.
“(The signed documents) offer a clear mechanism of prepayment and outline many technical aspects. Though the prepayment mechanism complies with the current contract, those purely settlement issues regarding invoices or terms have not been detailed fully, which is done in the document signed today (on Friday). The work on gas supplies to Ukraine will continue strictly in compliance with the current contract of 2009. First of all, regarding the mechanism of pricing. The price for gas supplies to Ukraine is the price formula minus a $100 discount under the government’s decision… the current price for the fourth quarter is $378.22 per 1,000 cubic metres. As for the price for the first quarter, now we may speak only about some forecasts, as the price formula is based on a nine-month period, which reflects indexation of oil products and, of course, the final price for the first quarter will depend on market prices on hydrocarbons next months,” he said.
“The main issue of the past months’ talks is Ukraine’s ability to pay. In fact, there has not been any other issue. Over this period the concern was where and how much Ukraine may borrow,” he said.
“Under the agreements reached and under the signed documents, Ukraine is obliged to settle $3.1 billion before the yearend. The first step towards resuming our supplies to Ukraine is the $1.45 million, which we should see in our account,” Gazprom’s head said.
Miller said Ukraine planned to buy 2 billion cubic metres of gas in November and 2 billion cubic metres of gas in December.
Earlier, the Russian Energy Ministry has not excluded a possibility of reducing the gas price for Ukraine to $365 for 1,000 cubic meters.
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/757583
JohninMK
Asked by Saker: “In the latest gas deal between the EU, the Ukraine and Russia – who won and who lost? (The junta in Kiev? Russia? The EU? Novorussia? The US? The oligarchs? Gazprom?)”
I believe Professor of Economics, Dr. Michael Hudson, is one of the best qualified to answer that question, and he does just that, at the link I’ll provide.
[SPOILER ALERT: Russia won]
Link includes Video + Transcript > http://michael-hudson.com/2014/11/europe-to-pay-for-the-whole-mess-in-ukraine/
–
On the other hand, I prefer to err on the side of caution; until the IMF gas-cash is firmly on Russia’s hands, I’m reluctant to claim victory prematurely.
Via itar-tass.com:
“Ukraine to pay Russia first tranche of natural gas debt within days — National Bank head”
LINK> http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/757956
-TL2Q
Good comment, KatKan. Putin, of all people, with his own tragic family background, will not let the innocent citizens of Ukraine, who are held hostage by the February coup, freeze to death
And these innocent citizens responded by electing the likes of this.
http://rt.com/news/201703-ukraine-mp-bombing-russia/
Seems the compassion is a little one sided.
Blogger Kat Kan said…
@Penny
I don’t see people agreeing to an Ebola vaccine…
It makes no difference what the people agree to. So, that isn’t relevant to the point I am making
Let me give you an example?
Swine flu- did the people agree to have their collective governments stockpile billions of dollars of vaccines and tamiflu only to have it dumped when it was not used?
The taxpayer dollars stolen and wasted?
The people did not agree and it did not matter on whit to the ptb’s
What matters is the elite asses have made a long term plan of profit taking and they will stick to their business plan
From reading your comment, it seems you assume a great deal about the actual effectiveness of vaccines- you would be mistaken if you believe vaccines are a panacea, they never have been and never will be.
The cases of Ebola are dropping right now in two African nations without a vaccine.
Common sense and early intervention in this situation would have saved lots lives- simply by breaking the chain of transmission.
It’s a tried and true method that had been employed in Africa on previous occasions. This time tried and true didn’t take place immediately and the dragging of Ebola patients into other nations seems an intentional plan to spread the hysteria or a hard sell campaign- there will be vaccines stockpiled and billions in profits again…..
all for the benefit of big pharma.
Meanwhile Africa will continue to be exploited, no clean food or water. Proper waste disposal Sewage systems. Water treatment
Because they have vaccines…
As for the West they will continue to march towards impoverishment with degrading systems of sewage and water too
As our tax dollars go to multinational profits and stockholders
You and others who talk about China or BRICS as though the US has the upper hand need to consider that China’s car market is larger than the US’s, and China doesn’t have to give the money away in order to make the sale to the locals. America’s purchases are with Chinese money, so it is a very mixed bag.
@Paul II
To state that a market with a population 300% larger sells more of a particular product, automobiles in this instance, is not a well thought out argument. Also, you obviously do not understand economics or what exactly US Treasuries are. And to state US purchases are made with Chinese money is ludicrous. US purchases are made with US Dollars. Chinese imports are bought with US Dollars. US Dollars are not Chinese money. You do not understand the economics behind what you mistakenly state. Think before you speak, sir.
@ Anonymous:
“then how come those very chinse conumers are giving millions of dolalrs worth to bankrupt nations like england and usa in form of education high fees and accomodation charges including buying houses?
the shinese consumers spend more money on uselss anglo.s product than the americans do on uselful chinese consumers prodiucts.
What you and others fail to understand is the very simple FACT that since the Chinese possess an exorbitant amount of US dollars received from trade with the US they absolutely must do something with them. So what my friend do they do with those? You mention buy US property and such else. Also you do not understand how trade between nations works. Are you attempting to suggest that the vast majority of Chinese citizens possess the wealth to buy things in the US. Let’s not be delusional. And before you make another uninformed statement, I am NOT one who supports US policy. It is reality that the collapse we would all like to see is not going to happen for a long, long time. I’ll state once again you do not understand economics or international trade or finance as well as you believe you do. It merely comes down to “What else can they do with their accumulated dollars? Invest in the US, buy US Treasuries or exchange those on the open market for another currency. Finally, think about one last thing. Do you ever wonder how much US billionaires own of China? After all the number of them exceed the number in every other country singularly.