Elections in Russia are talking place and already the Western corporate media is doing exactly what it did with the recent elections in Iran: ‘reporting’ about fraud ‘allegations’. And again, these reports are clearly prima facie idiocy. Here is why:
Fist, just as Iran, Russia is a very large country and, at this moment in time, not ever the Russian government has any meaningful results or any kind of measure of what kind of statistically relevant irregularities might have taken place. Remember Mousavi screaming about fraud before any results were counted? The BBC is doing the same with these elections.
Second, and just with Iran’s Ahmadinejad, there is overwhelming and converging evidence that Putin is immensely popular and that the ruling party has absolutely no need to engage in any fraud. Could local Party zealots in Iran or Russia think that they might “help” their party by engaging in fraud? Sure, but is that statistically relevant to the outcome? Of course not. I would even argue that, just as Ahmadinejad then, Putin needs as clear an election as possible.
The Western corporate media understands that very well, by the way. Or, rather – I should rephrase that – the bosses of the Western corporate media understand that very well. The CIA/MI6/BND/Mossad/etc all knew that ‘they’ would ‘loose’ the elections in Iran and that ‘they’ will ‘loose’ the elections in Russia today. That is precisely why they picked the only possible strategy – claim that the elections were rigged.
The big difference between Russia and Iran is, of course, not that there is no “Russian Mousavi”. There could be many candidates for such a role in Russia too (Grigory Yavlinsky, Garry Kasparov, Boris Nemtsov, etc.). What Russia does not have is a “Russian Rafsanjani”. First, because “Russian Rafsanjanis” have already ruled Russia between 1991 and 2000 and, second, because all the potential “Russian Rafsanjani” are now either abroad (Berezovsky & Co.), or in jail (Khodorkovsky & Co.). In that sense, and in that sense only, the elections in Iran were more ‘democratic’ as the supporters of Mousavi had a real opportunity not only to change the government, but to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is not an option that pro-Western forces have in Russia today. Heck – pro-Western forces could not even make it into the last Russia Duma. We will see if they do better this time (they probably will: Medvedev lowered the minimal percentage to get in, iirc).
Anyway – what we are seeing from the West now, as we saw then, is a huge reaction of spite and impotent frustration: for all their efforts have lead to nothing. That is why the Western corporate media is hammering the ‘fraud’ theme. I mean, really, do you actually expect them to admit ‘defeat’?
I sure don’t.
The Saker
UPDATE1: Interesting, now the BBC is not changing, but adjusting, its tune – it says that according to many exit polls the “United Russia” party of Putin is suffering losses. Nevermind that the kind of rating this “loosing” Party would be considered as a stunning victory by any Western politician, in particular after 11 years in power. The BBC is still hammering the “fraud” line, so I suspect that the losses to the “United Russia” are not quite what the BBC’s bosses were hoping for. But even if they turn out bigger than expected, don’t expect the BBC to change its tune and speak about a “triumph for democracy”. Basically, and no matter what, these elections will be used to further escalate the anti-Russian campaign of the Brits (and, their masters, of course).
UPDATE2: First preliminary results are in:
United Russia: 47,34%
Communists: 20,25%
Just Russia: 13.36%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky): 13,34%
other 3 parties all under 5%
No biggie here: United Russia did loose some but has still twice the votes of the next party, the Communists, which I think are doing very well (to my dismay). Just Russia has achieved a good score, in particular for a moderately pro-Western party, while the LDPR will be disappointed and the pro-Western parties are still in limbo.
UPDATE3: at (22:27 Eastern Time, with 92,18% of votes counted)
Vineyard, frankly you are a bit out of touch here.
there is fraud indeed happening: http://top.rbc.ru/politics/04/12/2011/628137.shtml
Even current relatively high scores for the ruling party would be impossible without cheating in places like Moscow/St.Petersburg.
I’m a what is usually called ‘ middle class’ – living in Moscow. Last week I didn’t meet A SINGLE person who intended to vote for United Russia (or how it would be called in english) – talking to collegues, friends, relatives, everyone. I’m not joking – not a single person. Everyone shared a view “let us see, how they will twist it this time”. And again we see that in Chechnya they’ve got up to 75% at 15’oclock participants, without a single incident.
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20111204161319.shtml
Are you kidding?
The ruling party has very little trust now (maybe in those who watch TV support it – I’m don’t).
It is so deeply and obviously corrupted. On top of that it’s moves are awkward and stupid, think of communist at the dawn of USSR.
Both Medvedev and Putin are loosing their popularity quickly, and it seems that do not realize it.
@Anonymous: Vineyard, frankly you are a bit out of touch here.
Yep, that is also what I was told after I called the elections in Iran generally fair. Here is the thing, though: I am not denying that United Russia, Putin, Medvedev & Co. are loosing popularity, I am only saying that they are not loosing the election. Fraud is, of course, possible. But not to the point of giving the “loosing” party twice the score of the next contender.
Please get me right – I am personally not at all an admirer Putin or Medvedev (neither ex-KGB types nor lawyers for the oil industry are my favorite types). I am not cheering for my own candidate, I don’t even have one to be honest. My personal inclination would have been to see Larijani run in Iran and Rogozin run in Russia, but since that never happened, this is besides the point.
As for the Russian communists and “Golos” screaming about the election, I would never suspect the former of being honest about anything at all, as for the latter, they are just your basic US bankrolled “dissident” movement. But even if ALL the fraud these two report is true, it is also irrelevant to the basic fact that a majority/plurality of Russians support United Russia, corruption or no corruption.
It is one thing to dislike a party and quite another to delude oneself that it therefore cannot win an elections.
Lastly, this regime has been in power since 11 years now, it has faced a huge amount of crises, including very severe economic ones. Do you REALLY think that a score in the 45%-50% range is a bad one?
It is not bad, but I doubt 45-50% very strongly (go to any youtube video on a subject and skim through comments – you’ll get an idea).
The truth is that we just don’t have choice here. People understand that west backed parties/politicians are no good. People understand that UR is over the top with its corruption. Difficult choice. That is how communists get their votes (not that they are too much different, of course).
Anatole Kargin on Duma elections and Western bias
http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/12/03/russia-duma-elections-2011/
Looks like the Putin regime will be with us for some time to come, for better or worse.
@Anonymous: we just don’t have choice here. People understand that west backed parties/politicians are no good. People understand that UR is over the top with its corruption. Difficult choice
Now here I FULLY agree. In fact, I wrote an entire analysis about this:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2011/10/democracy-la-russe.html
What “United Russia” did is create a political pseudo-diversity in which there are no credible alternatives. Zhirik is a joke. Zuiganov is a total cretin. The pro-Western parties are pathetic. In fact, I find it a good sign that Mironov’s “Just Russia” did so well. They are as big as the LDPR but, unlike the LDPR, they are at least “halfway not totally ridiculous”, at least in comparison to Zhirik & Co.
Please get me right here, if there was a REAL credible alternative to Medvedev, Putin and their “United Russia” party people would probably flock in great numbers there, but it simply does not exist. And since it does not exist, there is no need for United Russia and Putin to steal the election.
To win the all the ruling party has to do is tell the people: “we did remarkably well and we have many totally indisputable achievements; do you trust any of the opposition parties to do better?”. The answer is, I submit, totally obvious. Regardless of corruption. Regardless of window dressing. Regardless of all the hypocrisy.
@robert: excellent piece. Kargin hits it right on the nail. The one he mentions in his piece:
http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/06/18/are-russian-elections-rigged/
Is very good too!
Thanks for the pointer!
I’m not seeing much for the west to play with here. If UR stole votes, who did they steel them from? The Communists? Zhirinovsky? I don’t think either of them are particularly pro western. If anything, they are more outspoken against threats to Russian interests and sovereignty than UR.
This doesn’t look like fertile ground to plant a color revolution. Gary Kasparov isn’t going to be president of Russia.
@Lysander: you are way to rational and pragmatic to be a Western politician, LOL!
But you are quite correct. If anything, Zhirik and the Commies are even MORE anti-Western.
As for Mironov’s “Fair Russia” (or “Just Russia” if you prefer), its not nearly as pro-Western as the West would want it to be. Besides, it is openly social-democratic, very pro “social state” and not at all turbocapitalist a la Blair, Bush, Obama, Sarko & Co.
No, Kasparov better stick to chess. The pro-Western camp in Russia is somewhere in the 5-7% *tops* and everybody else ranges from firmly and moderately anti-US to rabidly anti-US :-)
Lysander said
If UR stole votes, who did they steel them from?
They are stealing them from people, who otherwise would not vote for any one. Also, if they do everything so that people don’t have a choice does it mean that they win honestly and deservingly?
There was a moment when ‘Pravoe Delo’ (Righteous Deed?) was gaining popularity. As soon as people in power realized that russians are to vote for something relatively fresh and uncompromised, some kind of covert operation have been performed which resulted in a scandal, split and killed the party.
Yes, though the Anglosphere foreign policy elite and punditocracy hate Putin for crushing their golden boy Khodorkovsky before he could sell Russia’s energy sector to them, it is very clear that Putin is the best they’re gonna get, so they might as well just suck it up and deal with him.
And Putin is perfectly willing to deal. Note that Russia’s political and economic relations with Germany, France, Italy, etc., are going very nicely.
It’s just that he demands value for value and won’t put up with being swindled like vain, gullible Gorby or the departed drunken incompetent comprador buffoon Yeltsin did. Sane Western countries like those listed above are doing well with mutually profitable relations with Russia.
The sole basis for the trouble Russia has with the Anglosphere is because the Anglosphere foreign policy elite and puntitocracy hate dealing with someone who has a backbone.
http://onsb.org/elections-moscow-2011-12-07.html
@Anonymous07:27:спасибо, вообще то интересный материал, есть о чем подумать тут. Но, во-первых, надо проверить данные, во вторых проверить методику и сделанные выводы. Мне просто все это совершенно не верится. Посмотрите, например, эти опросы:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011#Opinion_polling
Там все вполне сопоставимо с официальными результатами. КПРФ *НИКОГДА* не выше 20% а результат ЕР *НИКОГДА* не ниже 51%.
Так какие результаты ‘странные’?
Методология очень простая: взять с официального сайта http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100028713304&vrn=100100028713299®ion=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100028713304&type=233
статистику по участку и нанести точку на график:
По оси X – процент голосовавших по участку, по оси Y – процент за конкретную партию.
Вывод тоже, сам собой напрашивается “так не бывает”.
Так что, сам принцип проверки несложный