by James Tweedie for the Saker blog,
Britain, 12th September 2022
The Pro-Russian online commentariat have been appalled by the retreat from north-eastern Kharkov in the face of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
But they may take comfort that Special Military Operation (SMO) has begun to live up to President Vladimir Putin’s paraphrasing of the ‘classic’ Bachman Turner Overdrive (BTO) song ‘You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet’.
Never mind that the Russian Ministry of Defence has not yet claimed responsibility for whatever happened to power stations in the eastern half of the Ukraine on the night of Sunday September 11 — a date which helps Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claim to his US audience that the Kremlin is run by “terrorists”.
“The gloves are finally off!”, some will rejoice. It’s a bad metaphor: if you box without gloves then you end up breaking your hands on your opponent’s skull. Aircraft and cruise missiles can’t take and hold territory. Even if you wipe out the enemy, troops on the ground must finish the job.
Bloggers and YouTubers like Andrei Martyanov, Larry Johnson and Brian Berletic have argued cogently that the Russian-led forces made a tactical retreat from the north-east of Kharkov oblast as part of a ploy to inflict several thousand more casualties on the Ukrainians and their foreign mercenaries.
Whether or not that is true, others such as Dima of Military Summary and Alex Mercouris of The Duran say the manoeuvre will prompt a crisis of confidence among the Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population, who previously saw the Russian forces as their protectors and saviours from the Nazis. If those people don’t support the military intervention, what is the point of it?
It has also raised questions over the strategy of using the smallest number of regular army troops in direct combat, rather than in artillery and air support roles. Mercouris points out that the slow pace of the SMO has allowed the Ukraine to regain the initiative, and asks how Russia could spare 50,000 men for joint military exercises with China in the far east. There is a clamour among the ‘armchair generals’ of Telegram for the big Russian tank divisions to roll over the border and put things to rights.
That might even be one of the Putin government’s aims: the Kremlin made sure it had overwhelming public support for the SMO before acting, and it may be seeking another such mandate before risking thousands of casualties on a blitzkrieg offensive from Kharkov to Zaporozhye that would settle the issue.
Over-Claiming
The Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Kharkov over the past three weeks have discredited the daily MoD reports of progress in “demilitarisation and de-Nazification” — in other words casualties and material losses inflicted on Kiev’s forces.
The Ukrainians succeeded in keeping tens of thousands of its best troops and hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles in reserve for those operations.
The hundreds of Western-supplied M113 armoured personnel carriers, armoured Humvees and MRAPs, which had hardly been seen on the Donbass front, finally hove into view in Kherson and neighbouring Nikolaev.
As predicted, these aluminium spam cans and bullet-proof trucks didn’t fare very well against modern anti-tank weapons, and there are pictures and video of them blown apart, burnt out and half-melted. The Russians claimed to have destroyed around 500 of them. Even if that number is exaggerated two-fold, the losses are significant.
But the MoD had already claimed the destruction of tanks, big guns and planes than the Ukraine had at the start of the conflict and has received from the West since — even when the most dubious reports of covert aid are taken into account.
The fledgling air forces of the First World War had stringent criteria for confirming their ace pilots’ aerial victories. To be credited with shooting down an enemy aircraft, the act had to be witnessed by others or the wreckage recovered. Manfred von Richtofen, the famous ‘Red Baron’, had a room full of trophies taken from the planes he downed, including scraps of fabric with aircraft numbers on, a machine-gun and even a rotary engine block converted into a ceiling lamp.
But in the Second World War those rules were relaxed, and as a result it became normal for fighter squadrons to claim to have downed two or three times as many enemy aircraft as they actually did. This wasn’t just a case of propaganda or personal aggrandisement — often two or three pilots would be shooting at the same plane when it went down, or they would assume a damaged aircraft trailing smoke was a goner without seeing it crash.
So over-claiming is normal in warfare. But the big problem is that, with the snail’s pace of territorial gains, the daily clobber list was the only indicator of Russian progress. And when the Russians start to give ground in their war of attrition, the crisis of confidence sets in.
Close observers of the SMO are left second-guessing how far the MoD claims are exaggerated. Is it by 50 per cent? 100 per cent? The best one can do is draw graphs of the daily figures and see if the curve is levelling off. It was for tanks and planes before the Kherson counter-offensive. then the graphs ticked up sharply. It remains to be seen how much armour Kiev can muster for the anticipated Ugledar offensive in Donetsk, and how many tanks and infantry fighting vehicles will end up as scrap metal — in real life as well as on paper.
Body-Counts
The same goes for casualty figures. The MoD claims to have killed almost 87,000 Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries in six-and-a-half months (I added all their reports up in a spreadsheet). Assuming twice that many wounded, the Ukrainian army should be on its knees and the generals ready to arrest Zelensky and start peace talks. Those ‘leaked documents’ talking about 200,000 dead are also not credible.
But it is becoming clear that since early in the conflict, Kiev has been manning the trenches in Donbass with those wretched Territorial Defence conscripts, middle-aged men (and now women) with no proper training, uniforms or weapons. They’ve been doing the bleeding while the professional troops were held in reserve.
The USA had no idea how to fight its war in Vietnam, so it resorted to counting the bodies of the Vietnamese dead. Those counts became inflated with the corpses of innocents as the huge US armed forces failed to control territory. Russia has clearly tried to avoid getting large forces bogged down in the Ukraine or drafting young men into the army, but it must avoid the trap of substituting body-counts for real progress.
The original aims of the SMO were very straightforward: to pre-empt a major Ukrainian offensive against the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples’ Republics, and to stop the Ukraine joining NATO. “Demilitarisation and De-Nazification” are just code-words for those goals. The first was an existential question for the DPR and LPR, the second was a matter of life or death for Russia. Both threats remain, and both justify maximum use of force.
In Russia’s defence, one should always keep something in reserve. That can mean military forces and supplies, or it can be some way to escalate the hostilities — to deter the other fellow from escalating. Turning the lights out in the eastern Ukraine is an escalation. Doing the same west of the Dnieper is a card Russia still holds in its hand, along with others.
If in fact the notion that most of the Ukraine forces until now in the east have been territorial reserves – which I take with a 50-gallon barrel of salt for the simple reason that absolutely no one knows the Ukraine Order of Battle any more than they know the Russian Order of Battle – is true, all that matters is that most of the Ukraine reserves have been killed rather than all of the regular army soldiers.
Big deal!
The reality is that any way you count it, the Russian daily reports are almost certainly accurate (more or less by some small percentage) and that means Ukraine has been losing a minimum of one thousand troops per day for the last six months. Do the math. That is 30,000 dead and wounded per month, or 180,000 – which comes close to the “leaked” documents, if not the 200,000 dead and 300,000 wounded I’ve seen mentioned elsewhere.
All you have to do is read the MoD reports properly. They used to list the operations differently than they do now somewhat, but it’s still pretty much the same read. They list a couple overall specific operations which result in 200 dead hjere, another 100 dead there. Then – and this is the main point – they start listing the air, missile and artillery strikes separately without counting the dead.
But do you imagine that all these places they hit did not have at least one Ukrainian standing next to the “concentrations of manpower and equipment” which they list having hit in between 100 and 200 locations across Ukraine? Not to mention the “command posts”? Of course not.
So you have to ADD all those strikes to the initial counts? And then you have to estimate the wounded which is between 1 and 4 times that number.
This easily brings you to a number which is a minimum of one thousand a day.
And the losses Ukraine suffered recently have at least doubled that number, in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
The more men Ukraine packs into a given area for an attack merely increases the body count because the bulk of the Ukrainian dead are not being killed by Russian soldiers in man-on-man or unit-on-unit conbat. They are being killed from artillery, airstrikes and missiles.
The notion that Russia hasn’t destroyed the bulk of the Ukrainian armor, which numbered over 2,000 tanks to begin with, is risible. One problem I have with the Russian total count of destroyed armor is that they don’t break out the tanks from the AFCs. Then there’s the several hundred tanks the West sent in. So we don’t have an actual accurate count of tanks Ukraine had let alone those destroyed. However, it is clear that the couple hundred tanks Ukraine has sacrificed in these offensives are only about ten percent of the forces they had. If they had more, they would have used them. So they don’t have them. And now they’ve lost another hundred or more.
This “crisis of confidence” is the result of only one thing: ignorance of how war is actually fought. Andrei Martyanov has been harping on this daily for months now. I recommend his latest two videos for those who don’t understand that.
It doesn’t matter what the “armchair strategists” and “military fanboys” think, or even what the Russian critics of Putin think. They don’t know what they’re talking about.
The only people who really know what is going on in this war are the Russian General Staff (the only ones with the complete picture), the Ukrainian General Staff (at least as far as where forces are actually located), and possibly the US National Reconnaissance Office (if their analysts are any good.)
Everyone else is flailing for two reasons: 1) they don’t have complete intelligence, and 2) they don’t understand how war is fought.
The only knowledgeable observers I think are reliable are Andrei Martyanov, Larry Johnson, Brian Berletic, and the host of this blog. Everyone else appears to have succumbed to the “crisis in confidence”.
I remind everyone that 1) it is impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia, and 2) it is impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia even with the limited forced Russia has committed so far. This is the meaning of the term “military balance.”
So people need to get a clue.
People keep using this 3 injured for every 1 killed ratio. That I believe is based on small arms exchanges. Anyone who has the stomach for it should go look at what an airstrike or artillery/mlrs salvo on enemy troops looks like. Bodies within a dozen meters of the blast are blow to pieces. Several times that distance they sustain injuries incompatible with life. Ukraine isn’t engaging in small arms exchanges with Russians. They’re coming under air and artillery bombardment, so the dead to injured ratio is closer to 1:2. Because of the third world situation with Ukrainian hospitals, critical injuries like an arm blown off are almost always fatalities. How many pictures of crippled Ukrainians have you seen? None. Magic! There’s a darker side to this, Ukrainian leadership sees no point in saving someone who can no longer fight, because that person then has to be financially support as a cripple. EU certainly won’t take a cripple. There’s stories of people being left in hallways bleeding out, with injuries that shouldn’t be fatal.
The death toll is huge, but we’re never likely to know how huge. Another dark side, if Ukraine acknowledges deaths, then they also have to pay pensions to the family. Everyone is a deserter if they die!
The 3:1 ratio is still valid I believe. Even in WWII most deaths and injuries were caused by artillery. When you use more powerful artillery the kill radius is greater as is the injury radius. so the ratio roughly holds. .
To my experience, bogus body counts etc. generally only occur if the US is involved in something. It doesn’t occur to honest people to lie about everything from genital size to the safety of aircraft … like the US.
Speaking of WW2 and the US, in WW2 fully 50% of US war casualties happened on the mainland of the US, before they went anywhere. The next 25% happened in training near their objectives. One quarter of their casualties were in combat. They were, and still are, their own worst enemies.
One out of four Americans didn’t fire a shot in WW2. I wonder who actually won the war.
My favorite part of the Vietnam war was when they added up all the televised body counts, on every night of the week, and discovered they’d killed more Vietnamese than were alive in the country. Love the smell of BS in the morning.
What fever dream did you get those ridiculous made-up statistics from?
I agree.
As another point, the killed to injury ratio is all over the place. It actually ranges from 1:1 to 1:4 historically and possibly higher depending on the specific conflict. The 1:3 is just an average. This operation may set a new historical top.
I agree. The body counts are more or less accurate and body counts are the most direct means of demilitarising (a declared aim of the SMO) Ukraine.
Russian dead and injured counts are estimates rounded off to figures like 100, 200.
I thought that was obvious,
Exact figures would be.68, 375 etc.
In some cases body counts can be done but not in all cases. It also depends how people are killed, sometimes they are just shredded or burnt to death by ammunition.
The tactic of holding back Ukraine and nato’s good forces and recently sending in shitty fodder was a good one.
Even if you can see people gather in satellite you don’t know fighter quality.
Russia may have decided this is a war with NATO better to fight near supply lines and Russia.
Given modern weapons that can be a dangerous decision.
You are inviting rte enemy in to you when the enemy can strike directly into Russia from that distance and you have less time to do anything about it.
America from miles away after ensuring it’s continent represents no threat.
If s NATO attack was coming – and I’m not sure Russia believed NATO would come in directly, turn distance from Russ should have been a priority. Unless your plan is to retreat.
For NATO this is unbelievable access to attack Russia and kill it’s soldiers.
While facing no consequences on their own soil.
Ukrainian army Russia had a plan for and it work, but these are now NATO troops.
Let’s be clear what’s happening. NATO is in direct war with Russia and it is a dangerous dangerous war.
>>For NATO this is unbelievable access to attack Russia and kill it’s soldiers.
..While facing no consequences on their own soil.
I disagree with that idea.
Published Russian military doctrine is simple. Direct attack on Russia to threaten its existence triggers MAD ….. full scale nuclear war.
That is a serious consequence …
Not to mention that is full on war breaks out, many of the people here are going to go nuts and riot. This country is less stable than it has ever been in my lifetime, and a whole lot of people won’t even tolerate sacrificing a bit of EBT for war with Russia, let alone millions of their lives.
If Russia is holding back out of fear of the U.S., they shouldn’t. I’m sure the high command has their reasons. I never commanded anything higher than a company, so at the operational level, it’s impossible for me to figure anything out. I’m trusting Putin, though. The man is a world leader, yet honored Jesus Christ. I have Russia will triumph over this fake, imposter of a country, with its illegitimate, senile molester-in-chief.
I agree 100%. Right now the absence of consequences for NATO has emboldened them to take bigger risks of escalation. Russia is grinding the enemy down on the frontlines but this comes at the expenses of its own forces which, even if they manage to inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainians that far exceed its own, are still bogged down and forced to a slow progress and war fatigue.
Now this could still possibly be a winning strategy if Russia was dealing with a finite number of troops and gear on the other side. But that’s not the case (hasn’t been for a while) because apparently the Western world has decided that it’s going to make a last stand on Ukraine.
Scott Ritter, back in May, had warned that RU needed to declare full mobilization because the endless flow of Western weapons and freshly trained recruits and mercs had leveled the playing field. Meaning that Ukraine would be able to bring Russia to a stand still not because it’s equal in power but because has an endless supply of men and hardware, overt and hidden, (most of which doesn’t even make the headlines) And doesn’t care if it all gets smashed. Everybody called him a doomer but he was obviously right. We are seeing that now.
Case in point, that massive column of Crab tanks coming from Poland on the railways that we saw a couple of weeks back. Those same tanks have been spotted in a bunch of recent videos, moving around or being destroyed. How is it even conceivable that a slow moving train wasn’t detected and obliterated before it even made it to Ukraine, let alone the frontlines? Why is Russia letting these weapons make it (and be used) against its own troops?
Why doesn’t it disable Railways, highways and bridges at the border of Poland, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia?
The decision to keep its best Airforce hidden and only use older aircrafts and rely heavily on artillery was the correct one. The US had prepared Ukraine for an air/ground invasion war (tens of thousands of stinger, manpads, NLAWS, Javelins, etc.) so the Russians ground them down with artillery. That was good for the 2nd phase. Right now Russia needs to escalate to full-on annihilations of all areas of concentration. Places like Bakhmut (or any of these small villages that are free of civilians) should be downright flattened so that allied troops can move forward and the psychological impact on the Ukrainians and their Western Psychopath handlers can be magnified.
I have been giving a lot of thought about why Putin is keeping this mission confined to the SMO. I think it has something to do with the stated objectives but also a lot with studying NATO/American tactics and MO’s (while concealing its own) and preserving its best forces and hardware for a possible escalation of the conflict with direct NATO/USA intervention. Makes sense to not squander your potential (which is exactly what the US, as per that 2019 RAND study, is trying to accomplish) early on and then suffer the consequences when the Yankees stroll in chanting Fuck Yeah!
It is also true that in just 6 months Russia accomplished the following:
1) Ukraine is 100-200k men short
2) 100% of their pre-war gear has been wasted
3) Europe and the US are headed for some momentous economic collapse and are about to experience what the words “misery&deprivation” mean.
4) The Dollar is being replaced at light speed in transactions and is being dethroned as the world currency
5) Eurasian integration has become an operative reality.
So superkudos to Putin but now it’s time to show NATO that when you join a fight you are gonna bleed.
And become serious about finishing the job so that Russian soldiers and civilians can breathe free.
I agree on a lot if not most of this. While it looks like NATO hasn’t been touched, it has been. NATO doesn’t exist without the economic power to project force that comes from its members. On the political and economic front, Russia appears to have NATO on the ropes. NATO, long know for skimping on military expenditures, is giving until it hurts. The rearmament contracts aren’t real equipment for years; they simply don’t matter. Could NATO that’s in Europe right now fight at the current intensity for more than a month? I get the impression the answer is no, and that they know that.
I don’t think Putin expected NATO to disarm itself, but if that’s their plan he’d be a fool to get in the way given Russia’s expenditure to destroy it. He’s letting it bleed out all over Ukraine. How stable is NATO really? We might find out. IMO, Putin’s play right now is to wait and see if Europe turns on the US and it might. Not because the US got them into Ukraine or anything ideological but because the US is stabbing Europe in the back. If US natural gas prices go too high, it will cut europe off. Europeans can read American media talking about how there’s a killing to made in the death of Europe and how it’s good for US inflation. At some point, Europeans may remember what Kissinger said about the danger of being America’s friend. Putin can afford to wait a bit to find out.
Putin, Russian Army and General Staff have their own scripts in their textbook, that totally different from US-NATO which is “bomb-bomb-bomb-kill em all, then declare Victory through CNN”, literally written as the first rule of engagement.
Fantástico Richard. Lo has explicado perfectamente.
Échale un vistazo a este artículo que escribí hace un par de días.
Creo que te gustará.
https://deymoond.substack.com/p/el-crepusculo-de-los-dioses
Well said. It would be useful to know what the RUS exit strategy is at this stage, however. Ukr can’t defeat RUS but it can bleed it badly. I suspect we won’t know the exit strategy until it is all over, which hopefully won’t be too long, or too costly to RUS.
Yes, US strategy was to bleed Russia, but the RA has been playing the war by their own rules to maximize their artillery advantages and deal terrible kills ratios on the enemy. US was salivating at the prospect of the Russians performing a traditional head on attack on the defenses they spent nearly a decade preparing. Neither the economic war, nor the military war are going according to western fantasies. The collective West are the ones being bled both economically and militarily.
While all that is true and fine, I disagree with the need to ramp up forces significantly, or that the lives of Ukrainians account for much in this offensive. The West intends to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, and if we take this to the extreme, then Russia could be killing 2000-3000 Ukrainians a day, for years (even decades), before that pool would run out. In that mountain of bodies, you’d find an equal mix of Ukrainians and NATO mercenaries, regular soldiers on leave, and emotion idiots from reddit. NATO nations have the ability to poorly train 75,000-100,000 Ukrainian souls a month, and throw them into the meat grinder. You will never see anyone in the West blink an eye because the news won’t report the losses at all, ever. With a population of 30+ million, Ukraine will have around 1 million reaching military age per year. It could literally take decades. Great plan by the West right?
Bodies are not the goal, and land is not the goal. In fact, no military outcome in Ukraine will directly impact on the outcome of the conflict, because it’s not a war between Ukraine and Russia. The conflict ends when the West capitulates due to minor financial discomfort. In order to achieve this, Russia just has to make Ukraine a weight too heavy for the EU to carry. Any attacks on the financial pillars supporting Ukraine would have a greater impact than fighting in the trenches, because it forces NATO nations to increase financial support in order to keep the project viable.
Taking out the electricity and keeping it out permanently is a good option. The EU is already in a power crisis, and they’d be forced to send power Ukraine to keep the project viable. Ukraine will lose people if there is no power, and the EU will have a refugee tsunami. Ukrainian trains are electric so while the power is off, the bear is essentially savaging Ukraine’s logistical lines. The lights should not go back on in Ukraine until the conflict is over.
Russia should also cut all oil and gas trade with unfriendly nations.
Russia should also start targeting financial interests of Ze’s billionaire backers, and Ze’s own small fortune. Take away the financial incentive for those profiting, and the support for the conflict falls away.
Russia could also start targeting the decision making centers. Fodder is easy to replace, but completely corrupt oligarchs and generals no so much.
Hit every SBU facility with a cruise missile = step 2 or 3. (you insert your own step 1)
Why is the SBU still functioning? Rhetorical question to Vladimir.
Why…..it’s a NATO red line, six months now, and they laugh…..
Cheers M
They are still functioning because Russia doesn‘t want to bomb its own spies
Terrific comment! I agree completely
Wrong BTO tune.
Taking Care of Business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCIUf8eYPqA
Doing war because there’s money in it, for every banker, safe behind closed doors. Agree with your secret mates to put on a show & drag it out & there be billions & trillions in it. Tho, best not be young fodder, lest you don’t know it, you’re for free
Winter is coming.
Shut down the Ukrainian power grid plus natural gas and oil infrastructure. Let the Ukrainians freeze as the ground becomes frozen. Frozen ground is perfect for tank warfare. Putin is taking off the padded boxing gloves and putting on his brass knuckles.
No he is not.
The strikes on infrastructure so far have not decimated anything.
I think we need to be patient.
Russia has to adjust to open war with NATO. Mobilisation takes time and is extremely expensive and will eat massively into Russian surplus.
Best to allow time to ensure the right preparation is made
What is sad for the world is that the likelihood of nuclear war just went up
The west are fools and Russia can’t change stupid and evil.
Unfortunately no choice but to fight. As they won’t stop.
The attacks on the Ukrainian power grid paralyzed their trains -which run on electricity- and stopped the Ukrainian army as sitting ducks, unable to be deployed from the North to the South.
So, now, the Russkies can bomb those trains, stuck, loaded with the Uke Army, on rail tracks.
You wanna see 300 a day…. bomb a train with 50 tanks and half a battalion, do it for a few trains a day, and you got no Uke army left in two weeks.
Cutting off the supplies of cocaine, meth and KY Jelly would end this mess in 2 weeks.
As long as Russians lead a decent quality of life, and their children have a future, then all is well.
The desperation of a crumbling combined west has peaked; they’ve completely lost it. The natives in the west are way more fragile and getting angrier, more confused by the day. On Sunday, with a quarter tank full of diesel contained therein, it cost my missus £187 ($200); yeah, it’s a big tank but WTF, to fill. I look around me and this old town don’t look or smell too pretty. The food inflation on luxury stuff is now shown in the portion and not price (great PSYOPS), again, squeezing the already butt-hurt middle-class even more. It’s zombie denial limbo-land here. Will we make it till/through Christmas? Many won’t!
Put the lights out in Ukraine! Quit trying to be reasonable to the vermin controlling Ukraine, the west and most importantly be the ‘tat’ in tit for tat, proactive and not reactive.
I like how the article mentioned Vietnam war. As I find similarity with the Balakliia offensive, with the Tet offensive. Both may be the turning points of their respective wars. Tet was a military disaster, but proved to be a mortal psychological and political blow to the U.S establishment. Balakliia is opposite though, Russians suffered few if any, and were able to rapidly withdraw to new defensible locations, while Ukraine and its allies suffered thousands of deaths. The big psychological blow have been to the pro-russia telegram channels, and youtube bloggers. Yes, Ukraine will conduct reprisal attacks against those who chose to stay, but this is no different than what they have been doing to the people of donbass for years now.
The offensive proved:
1. Ukrainians are totally apathetic to massive deaths, as long as they get electricity, and other comforts they do not care who is in charge.
2. Ukrainians are running out of men to fill their armies. The Balakliia offensive was carried out by thousands of foreign volunteers and mercenaries, many of them lead by NATO Special Forces veterans, and paid for by the U.S state department. This is increasingly a foreign conflict, a la Syria. Instead of CIA paid jihadists, we have CIA paid nazis. I have doubts about the pool of “nazis’ the CIA will be able to sustainably field in west, and mercenaries are very expensive canon fodder.
3. Russian military professionalism, a well organized withdrawal, composure under pressure and small local against overwhelming numbers.
Side note:
I find body counts to be a measure, but it isn’t and shouldn’t be the measurement in winning a war. U.S killed over 2 million Vietnamese in the Vietnam war, but they eventually realized they were fighting against the birth rate of the nation.
““The gloves are finally off!”, some will rejoice. It’s a bad metaphor: if you box without gloves then you end up breaking your hands on your opponent’s skull.”
This is ridiculous. Martial artists can break many times the strength of a human skull with bare hands and not break a single bone.
Bare knuckle boxing is a far more skillful fight because the damage is immediate and severe. Gloves were introduced to prolong the fight, both for the spectacle and for the gambling. Fighters end up taking far more damage over the course of a bout with gloves, including much more damage to the brain, because each hit is cushioned, then they do without. Its a
Metaphor refers to time gentlemen wore gloves that would be removed to duel.
The retreat seems to have been worse than I feared. Some of the Russian school teachers that went to those liberated areas were not evacuated and are prisoners of the nazis. They are saying they will be tried as criminals,and Ukrainian teachers that cooperated with the Russians will be tried as traitors:
” Detained Russian teachers to face ‘punishment’ – Ukraine
Teachers who arrived to the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine have committed a “crime,” Kiev says”
https://www.rt.com/russia/562663-ukraine-russian-teachers-criminal-charges/
The depravity of Ukraine has no bottom. If they abuse these Russian citizens, mostly women, I imagine a special group like Vympel or Alpha would rectify the situation.
They could,but would they be sent. I’m not sure I would count on that.
The prominent feeling in Russia:
The overnight strike on Ukraine’s energy structure hides two important points underneath.
First, it partly relieved the heaviest dejection after the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region. Yesterday, already by evening, the border settlements abandoned by the Russian Armed Forces were occupied and news and videos emerged of terror attacks on civilians who had not had time to evacuate.
Secondly, the powerful attacks that had been expected in Kharkiv and Mykolayiv regions and directly near Donetsk did not take place. However, the latter was most likely abandoned by the Ukrainians after the unsuccessful assault on Peski with the loss of two tanks and infantry.
It is time to go to war with Ukraine for real. It is a question of Russia’s survival. Kiev, to the applause of the US and the EU, is telling us directly that our country will be torn to pieces and destroyed.
We have 146 million Russian lives behind us and more than 4 million people in Donbass, plus the population of the remaining liberated territories. We are a nuclear power. It’s time to remember that.
@SergeyKolyasnikov
Bob, as you may know my grandmother is Russian and living in Russia.
I am now quite worried about her.
If this war escalates many things can happen.
The west are all Nazis. They don’t care about human beings, truth or justce.
I had hoped this war would be contained but the entry of direct us and UK polish regular army is now a serious problem.
I think Putin and the defense need to think very carefully about what they do next.
So I am not impatient for a response. In fact I would be unhappy if there was to quick a response.
The cost and logistics in a war setting are HUGE.
Don’t underestimate evil.America.
Let the Russian leadership think very carefully about what they do next.
Let’s hope the decision is correct.
The worry should come from not reacting with strength. The West will only attack Russia if they see a Russia to weak ( or indecisive or cowed) to fight back. A strong decisive Russia is too great a threat for them to attack openly.
I am German and will go to Russia with my Russian wife. We still have a few things to do and hope to finally leave shortly. We see greater dangers in Germany. I would be interested if anyone thinks Europe is safer and why.
I just recently left Germany after seven years living in the country. I didn‘t move to Russia, though. Anyway, almost any place is better than Germany right now -barring the Ukraine, of course
I live here, in Germany, I came 11 years ago…
this is much worse than an orwelian 1984…
but I can not leave. Or I can leave if I leave my family behind,
which would be too egoist on me.
I believe a Revolution will come…
I think it was Lenin who said once: Every society is three meals away from chaos.
The Idiots in Power (at all levels) are not only planing on taking these three meals away… heating, and the most basic liberties and rights too.
Stormy water ahead, Captain
I’ve been puzzled from the start why Russia didn’t take out rail and air transport. There are only a finite number of major rail lines entering Ukraine from the West. It would not be hard to sever those lines and the substations/transmission likes that provide electric power. Likewise it doesn’t take much to shut down airports. Just bomb runways and radar installations.
From there major roadways can be disabled. All this leaves Ukraine cut-off from supplies of all sorts, and leaves the infantry without new weapons and ammo.
No. The border with Ukraine is too huge.
Better to know how the weapons come in and have chance to destroy than try to man the whole western border of Ukraine.
Weapons get in anyway.
Re power and water. Well..what will that achieve. Terror. Civil unrest. Fear. Or anger. Who knows.
Everything counts on energy and a healthy industrial machinery, particularly that of weapon production and accumulation. I have been suspecting that Russia, though on the surface loudly chastises the West of supporting Ukraine of all their military supplies, slyly permits these supply lines to semi-function to draw them into a bottomless pit meanwhile fighting on the economic front to weaken and drain away their ability to produce – by slowly closing off the energy tap and arm twisting their adversaries by threatening further critical mineral exports. Without energy and a crumbling economy these nations cannot keep fabricating more weapons and eventually it will reach a warning stage when the West will realize they cannot afford this war of attrition. You will have to sit to negotiate. By then Russia will be in a position of power and dictate terms or conditions. The challenge is to keep casualties on the low side and the Russia citizens happy with the progress of the war. Objectively It is a very challenging act to perform. The longer the conflict drags on the harder it is to control all the variables favourable to themselves. I believe the Russian leaders are well aware of it and the reason why they always try to leave open space for dialogue. So far, the economic front is still favouring the Russian side. Energy prices have been doing very well and Russia can still maintain a positive balance to keep this game running.
“In the Soviet army it takes more courage to retreat than advance”
Joseph Stallin
Thnaks – that’s a great line, very apt
Yeah, I hope that attacks on electrical grid and perhaps other infrastructure will continue and not simply peter off, as we have seen before. Galizians should know too there is a war going on.
Ukrainian citizens eligible for conscription into the armed forces (i.e., men and women aged 16-65) live in fear of a visit by representatives of the local draft board. I think they all know there is a war on, with or without electricity.
A good article on the situation. Here is an excerpt from it:
Next, in the new circumstances, Russia should abandon its go-it-alone policy and actively seek out complementary weapons systems from previously untouchable countries, such as Iran and North Korea. Procurements from both have till now been minimal. On this issue, a couple of panelists with military expertise were allowed to explain that both these countries have sophisticated and proven weapons that could greatly assist Russia’s war effort. Iran has unbeatable drones which carry hefty explosive charges and have proven their worth in operations that are unmentionable on public television. And North Korea has very effective tanks and highly portable field artillery which are both fully compatible with Russian military practice, because the designs were based on Chinese weapons, which in turn were copies of Russia’s own. These weapons also have shown their worth in the hands of unnamed purchasers in the Middle East. Moreover, North Korea has a vast store of munitions fully compatible with Russian artillery. It was also mentioned in passing that insofar as Kiev has mobilized in the field many Western mercenaries and covert NATO officers, Russia should also recruit from abroad, as for example, whole brigades from North Korea available for hire.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/09/u-s-ups-the-ante-are-we-indeed-headed-into-wwiii-and-what-can-save-us/
Well today Dima at MSC is back to being neutral. And he has a very interesting analysis of the situation of logistics:
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 12.09.2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0B_BLiNDMQ
One of the reasons Hitler lost the war was that he never fully committed to it. While Churchill promised his people “blood, sweat and tears” Hitler made great effort to keep the standard of living in Germany at the same level in order to prevent protests against the war. The result was that he was slow with increasing military production compared to his enemies.
I see the same lack of commitment on the side of Putin. The war must be called a Special Military Operation. The number of troops sent in is low. And in order to prevent casualties they are committed to the “grinding” tactic that above all means very slow progress. Apart from the beginning of the war I haven’t seen any audacious operation like Ukraine did recently in Kharkov province.
Fact 1 – Ukraine was the 2nd biggest army (even without general mobilisation) in all of Europe. (2.5k – 2 mil)
Fact 2 – Russia is supporting the DPR/LPR militia with air support, artillery and specialist units (plus Airborne/Marine/National Guard units), estimated ratio is 1-3 to 1-5 or more on the front line in Ukraine’s favour.
Fact 3 – DPR/LPR and the Crimean corridor are the only territories being held so far, followed with civil/social developments.
Fact 4 – Civilians in areas where the Russia was not invested in were already evacuated.
Fact 5 – Retrograde/screening operations are (successfully) conducted in ways that do not clue in the enemy/keyboard warriors. Even soldiers on the ground are only aware of their immediate operational orders at any given time and not what the next echelon up is doing/planning.
Fact 6 – The entire Ukraine SMO is a side show.
Fact 7 – the one that everyone keeps forgetting “Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest” – Pres V. Putin. So, irrespective of whether you’re pro or anti SMO, the Russian General Staff is running rings around NATO and its proxies. Enjoy the ride, I know I am.
Good piece!
“To pre-empt a major Ukrainian offensive against the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples’ Republics, and to stop the Ukraine joining NATO”
This cannot be emphasized enough. Russia has more or less reached what it planned out to do. If they can find a good spot at the negotiation table to have sufficient buffer zones, what’s left of Ukraine can become “NATO” or Poland or EU’s new terminal care patient. Time itself and internal struggles will be the new enemy for Ukraine.
Russia days it has destroyed a 45000 ton ammo dump…..surely that would be on the Richter seismic scale…any more evidence out there?
As every body is lying, information from Kiev or Russia MOD cannot be fully trusted.
What is obvious:
1) SMO was started on the false assumption that Russia would be welcome in Ukraine and the Kiev’s regime would fall quickly. Kiev’s regime is still managing its troops, has only few problems in energy ressoureces and distribution and almost non in communication systems (Roads, bridges are functional, idem for railways, telephone and Internet.) Kiev has been able to mount several counter-offensives with some success.
2) When Kiev is taking back territories, they punished all civilians having worked with Russia and this is an strong warning to former Ukraine’s territories still under russian management.
3) This SMO is for Kiev a full war and Russia should acknowledge that. In the parts of Ukraine that Russia is not planning to take, the infrastructure should be totally destroyed as the US and UK did to Germany in WW-II .
4) Why Russia has waited to be defeated in Karkhov to start bombing power-plants and prevent raislways to be used to bring heavy weapons to the front ?
Before reading the article I thought the BTO reference was that Russia would start Taking Care of Business, I suppose both are applicable
The SMO is over when it’s over! But a withdrawal turn to let the enemy run into the land and waste their fuel and kill them en pasant is just a manoever. The ukis didn’t gain from this. Next time the front line will have better setup anyway.
The interesting part is how long will the M-777, HiMars aso survive this closer to the front line?
And the dead prone soldiers/officers from the west to support this equipment?
My 2 cents: the civilians are removed from the battle field to bring heavy bombers into play when the winter begins next month. To shred the defense/attack positions of AFU near Donetsk to dust. And there will be tanks and Kiew will become a parted town.
The only way to prevent from this outcome is to start negotiations now.
Ukies did not gain from this …you say
I say this – one more offensive like this around Harkow …just one more defeat like this, and Russians can pick their things up and go back to Russia
I have an impression that they did not take all of this seriously enough
And they underestimated Ukies
Russians are gambling
If they are to continue war like this so far it would be better that they did not go into Ukraine
Negotiate about what? the bottom line is if the Ukrainians are not defeated on the Battlefield and politically Ukraine will be occupied by Nato with all the threat that would mean for Russia,if they thought Russia was weak why would they not cause more problems inside Russia once they had taken Ukraine?Russia can’t afford to lose this war like they couldn’t against Hitler or they will be killed or enslaved its that simple,i just hope the leadership in Russia know it.
Great post.The truth is both Western and Russian commentators inflate numbers of enemy losses and war material.However one thing is certain.By June Ukraine was seriously low on armoured vehicles, artillery pieces, anti-aircraft systems etc.I remember their logistics expert ( some general ) admitting to western media that they’ve lost roughly 50% of their heavy equipment and they urgently need military aid.We also know their air force is almost wiped out and they fly a few mig29’s and mil-8 provided by the West.We also know from multiple accounts that Russia enjoys a 10:1 artillery advantage.
As to personnel losses no-one knows for sure.BUT it is a fact that pre-war Ukraine had an Army of 250.000 +150.000 national guard.Russia came in with 150.000-200.000+ 60-80.000 LDPR allies. The Kiev Government has since mobilized several reserves, volunteers, drafted etc.Russia continues to fight with roughly the same amount of personnel.250.000 on a 1.500 klm front against 750.000-900.000.This creates certain opportunities for Ukraine to exploit undermanned sectors and overwhelm them with multiple brigades.RF is most probable aware of such plans but lacking reserves how can it react ???
I’ld like to add that 60.000 dead +60.000 heavily injured ( roughly 300+300 per day of war) is a heavy toll for UAF BUT it represents roughly 10-20% of its total manpower.They will continue to feed more cannon fodder to the meat grinder.Territorial Defences, Women, Pensioners and so on.USA provides some weapons ( in time they become heavier ) and $ to pay the bills and Ukraine pays in blood.
As the Gollum would say, “the Russianses are tricksty”.
Say 150k RF. But they can be rotated. So, it is equivalent to 300k.
Then they have shown kalibr striking Syria from the Caspian sea.
Show me the RF using 200 kalibr or other heavy missiles on the front in a single day and i would admit they have a desperate situation.
Russian or Pro-Russian civilians caught in the AFU net which might demoralise any pro-Russians in other oblasts? Makes sense but the question is, what is the Russian game here?
In a really desperate military situation, hundreds of heavy missiles will fly in hours. A hundred bombers will be deployed and at least a dozen will drop from the skies.
I didn’t see it. what is the plan then? Wait until the brits have the coronation?
Let Biden win the election so the USA is destroyed more thoroughly by immigration?
Encourage the Germans to continue their self destructive sanctions?
Or is it just this, a peace treaty which recognises Krim, DPR and LPR as Russian territory, which is basically a stab in the back?
Whatever it is their plan, I didn’t see a desperate military situation.
Just have to wait until something interesting happens, or until deep winter.
Speaking of exaggerated numbers, we commonly read that Russia deployed 150,000 to 200,000 troops. Yet some say much smaller. I believe Andrei ventured as few as 80.000
Thoughts ?
I have read on Russian sites that the Donbass malitia numbers about 65,000 and that Russia fields about 125,000 volunteers at any one time. The volunteers are regularly recycled. It seems that with the introduction of an additional force of 60,000 NATO mercenaries / NATO trained Ukrainians – the number of Russian volunteers will be increased.
The NATO/Ukraine counter attack force ratio was 8:1 . Of course Russia had to retreat. They destroyed about 2,000 NATO/Ukraine forces during an orderly retreat, while losing about 200 men. I have read that the electrical outages stopped trains transporting 2nd wave military personnel and heavy equipment to the UAF front, which were then targeted by the Russian airforce. Evidently there were massive losses to Ukraine in both personnel and hardware on trains and waiting at stations.
Some updates from Rybar:
Rybar
🇬🇧🇺🇦 The battle for Kherson: the situation in the Andreevsky sector
as of 16.30 September 13, 2022
▪️Units of the 46th detachment and 35th detachment, after regrouping in the area of Lozovoye and Sukhoi Stavka , made another attempt to attack from the Belogorka area in the direction of Bruskinskoye .
▪️As a result of the massive fire impact of artillery and MLRS of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as bomber strikes on the “gut”, the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered losses and began a disorderly retreat.
▪️Fire cover for the fleeing Ukrainian servicemen is provided by two crews of M777 howitzers from the Bereznohovatoy area . The Russian Armed Forces destroyed two Ukrainian howitzers “Hyacinth-B” four kilometers east of the village.
▪️Also, more than 25 armored vehicles, including four tanks, eight self-propelled guns and nine armored combat vehicles, were deployed through the established crossings to the right bank of the Ingulets River for restoration .
Rybar
0:45
🇬🇧🇺🇦Destruction of the assault group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ugledar
In the Ugledar direction, the artillerymen of the allied forces destroyed the assault group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was trying to secretly penetrate to the forward positions of the allied forces.
The enemy was detected by the UAV crew, after which a fire defeat was inflicted on him. The footage shows shells hitting the moving soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: at least four were killed and left lying in the steppe.
In the past few days, the Ukrainian command has been transferring troops to the Zaporozhye and Vuhledary direction for a possible offensive. Therefore, the activity of sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the line of combat contact has increased dramatically.
More from Rybar:
🇬🇧🇺🇦 The battle for Kherson: the situation in the Andreevsky sector
as of 16.30 September 13, 2022
▪️Units of the 46th detachment and 35th detachment, after regrouping in the area of Lozovoye and Sukhoi Stavka , made another attempt to attack from the Belogorka area in the direction of Bruskinskoye .
▪️As a result of the massive fire impact of artillery and MLRS of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as bomber strikes on the “gut”, the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered losses and began a disorderly retreat.
▪️Fire cover for the fleeing Ukrainian servicemen is provided by two crews of M777 howitzers from the Bereznohovatoy area . The Russian Armed Forces destroyed two Ukrainian howitzers “Hyacinth-B” four kilometers east of the village.
▪️Also, more than 25 armored vehicles, including four tanks, eight self-propelled guns and nine armored combat vehicles, were deployed through the established crossings to the right bank of the Ingulets River for restoration .
10:23
Rybar
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The situation in the Donetsk direction
as of 18:00 September 13, 2022 The
Ukrainian command continues to prepare for a counteroffensive on the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration The preliminary start date is September 14 at night.
▪️The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were given the command to be ready for the start of the assault on the positions of the allied forces in the direction of Pesok and Marinka . Ukrainian artillery and MLRS intensified shelling of positions in these settlements and on the western outskirts of Donetsk .
▪️A wagon train with military equipment and personnel arrived at the railway station in Pokrovsk for an offensive in the Donetsk direction.
▪️To reinforce the units of the 79th brigade, several mortar crews were sent to the Maryinsky sector, and servicemen of the 42nd battalion of the 57th brigade arrived in the Pesok direction.
▪️Artillery of the allied forces is conducting massive fire on Ukrainian positions in Kurdyumovka and Mayorsk , because of which the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered losses and withdrew troops to reserve positions.
▪️The enemy, with the forces of about 50 people, with the support of light armored vehicles, attempted a counterattack on the lost strongholds in the western part of the Donetsk airport from the Experimental side. However, the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine came under heavy artillery and mortar fire from the “Somalia” battalion of the NM of the DPR and were forced to retreat with losses to their original positions.
▪️On September 9-10, about 2,000 servicemen from the 53rd and 110th OMBs were sent to the Ugledar sector of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Strengthening is connected with the planned counteroffensive in the direction of Nikolsky in the coming days. As part of the preparations for the formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, positions are being set up at civilian infrastructure facilities in Vugledar , and engineering and sapper troops continue to clear the area. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine use multiple numerical superiority in order to hide the real target of the strike and thus disperse the reserves of the allied forces to defend false attack sites. Large resolution map Foreign versions of our Donetsk Direction map:
11:01
Rybar
🇬🇧🇺🇦 Battle for Kherson: the situation in the Olginsky sector
as of 18.30 September 13, 2022 The
Ukrainian command is preparing for another attempt to attack the Arkhangelsk – Novopetrovka line and in the direction of Lyubimovka with the forces of two companies of the 60th brigade and a company of the 17th brigade.
▪️At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred at least 14 pieces of equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and two anti-tank systems, from the 17th detachment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Vysokopolye region from Apostolovo.
▪️In the forest belt 3.5 km northwest of Novovoznesensky , the forces of 60 brigade are operating, and 1.5 km west of the settlement there is a Ukrainian DRG, which intends to advance in the direction of Novopetrovka with the start of the offensive.
▪️In the vicinity of Vysokopolye and Potemkino , MANPADS crews have been deployed to cover the group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from air strikes.
A wagon train arrived…..maybe Russia should blow up the tracks, turning off the power won’t help, because there are many types of heavy service trucks that travel on the rail lines and could push five or six, perhaps more, wagons with tanks a long way over relatively flat terrain.
Just need the diesel, which the Ukraine has no shortage of.
Cheers M
Voenkor Kitten Z
Military expert Boris Rozhin on the course of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine on 09/13/2022, 21.23 Moscow time, specially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel :
1. The front on Oskol has stabilized. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are fixed on new frontiers.
2. Kupyansk is still divided into 2 parts. The western one is under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the eastern one is under the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
3. The enemy continues to occupy villages in the north of the Kharkov region, and also intensifies shelling of the border areas of the Belgorod region. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are fixed on the border of the Belgorod and Kharkov regions.
4. Krasny Lyman and Yampol – under the control of the RF Armed Forces. The enemy, however, has a foothold on the northern bank of the Seversky Donets up to the Old Caravan.
5. Svyatogorsk is not completely controlled by anyone, but it can be expected that in the coming days the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to ensure control over the city. In this case, there will be a threat to the flank of the grouping defending Studenok, as well as Yarovaya.
6. Svatovo and Kremennaya – under the full control of the RF Armed Forces and the LPR army. The enemy is actively operating in the area of Belogorovka and Verkhnekamenskoye.
7. PMC Wagner took Nikolaevka-2 and took the Artemovsk-Dzerzhinsk road under fire control. There is also an attack on Zaitsevo.
8. Positional battles continued in the Donetsk direction. The enemy made several attempts to attack, but all ended unsuccessfully.
9. In the Zaporozhye direction, there is a concentration of forces on the front from Kamensky to Gulyaipol.
10. In the Kherson direction, the enemy threw in a fake about the capture of Kiselevka (refuted), and also tried to attack at Davydov Ford (unsuccessfully).
@voenkorKotenok
I hope every one of those mercs dies for abandoning their nations to jews to go prop up another jew regime
Of course Russian MoD lies; all MoDs lie. But I can see a scenario where it’s actually pretty close in all things because I don’t think we’ve been privy to the scale of western support. It requires the little tidbits of stories like the Brits trying to scrounge up soviet equipment anywhere and everywhere. Realistically, the MoD clobber list probably needs to be compared to the entire known stock of soviet equipment, including mothballed stuff, at least in Europe and maybe much of the world. Plus whatever the west sent. Shy of total war, Russia was never going to destroy it all in transit.
As for manpower, almost certainly inflated but maybe not by much either. Ukraine has shown zero effort to reduce casualties in the way armies generally do and it takes a lot to kill a few on the Donbas line. It appears that the Kharkov offensive had a lot of imported manpower both in mercenaries and Ukrainians who left for training and couldn’t be killed in Poland or wherever.
The question that answers the other questions about losses is whether Ukraine can mount the same sort of massive counterattack soon. If they can do so successfully, then Russian MoD has been lying badly. If they can’t it shows that Kharkov was a massive effort (and essentially wasted since it didn’t really degrade Russian forces at all) that was pretty much what Ukraine had until the buildup is complete for the 2023 offensive Zaluzhny wrote about.
The failure of systems is never outwardly gradual and measurable. Often (think of a bad marriage) they’re beyond salvage for a long time before they outwardly fail. And failure of complex systems is hard to predict. So it’s quite possible, maybe even realistic, that what looks like a revitalized Ukrainian military could crack badly and irrevocably next week. That wouldn’t be my bet, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.
Former Democrat James Howard Kunstler is much more sanguine about this https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/is-war-what-you-asked-for/ than much of the Russian blogosphere, though I fully understand the latter’s concerns. He notes, among other things, that the left-wing government of Sweden was just defeated by a right-centrist bloc. The Davos and WEF-led destruction of western Europe and most of North America reminds me of the sort of “hitting bottom” that drunks have to go through before reconsidering their lifestyle. With all due respect to any of the civilians left behind who may be subjected to the tender mercies of Nazi orcs, compared to what is going on globally now, that is a tempest in a teakettle. I’ll put in a prayer that something be done to help those civilians.
If the Russians have air superiority, why isn’t all this armor being destroyed en-route. Why is it showing up for Ukraine counter offenses? Aren’t Russian drones and aircraft monitoring the railroads 24/7? I don’t get it.
What happened to the cauldron that was supposed to trap the Ukronazis west of Donetsk? How is a Kherson citizens to vote in referendum, knowing that they might be completely abandoned? Without trust, there is anxiety and great doubt.
The Russian retreat gave Ukraine hope and financing thru the winter. A blunder without justification.
The high number of claimed kills of materiel can easily be attributed to the Western “lethal aid.”
Body counts are not the best way to measure progress, no doubt. But the American problem with body counts arose, and has persisted, in the context of guerilla struggles. This is a regular military fight, at least so far. There is a clear distinction: In a regular military fight, the opponent is the enemy’s military, which contains some number of people. In theory, if you kill all or most of them, the enemy military can’t fight any more. In practice they can and will recruit replacement soldiers, but these hasty replacements tend to be too little too late and too poorly trained to change the overall result. In this context, body counts are to some extent a real metric–they show your progress in getting rid of the enemy army, which does represent some kind of real progress.
In a guerilla struggle, the occupying force is potentially fighting the entire local population. The struggle might appear to be, to defeat the guerilla force. But the real struggle is to avoid engaging more of the population in the fight. The dilemma is that since guerilla forces hide among the people, the more ruthlessly you hunt them down, the more savagely that means you are oppressing the people, and the more people will become active supporters of the guerilla resistance. In this context, body counts largely show your progress in making the whole currently-civilian population hate you. This is all the more true given that using body counts as a measure implies setting them as an objective, and with actual guerillas looking just like civilians but being harder to find, this always leads to just killing semi-random civilians and claiming them as enemy bodies to count. The bigger the body count, the closer you probably are to losing.
So a comparison between this war (at least in its current phase) and the US experience of body counts in Vietnam is not very relevant, I think. If the Russian forces defeat the Ukrainian military, they could end up as an occupying force and could face a guerilla resistance. This is surely one reason why up to now, Russia has been quite careful about how badly it beats up civilian infrastructure and population centres.
No nation with seismic detectors within range of the shockwaves are going to report it, except for Russia.
So it comes on down to whether you believe the Russian MoD more than the pathological liars in Kiev, London and Washington DC.
I have no reason to doubt the Russian MoD. I was mobilized and assigned to in an ammo battalion in Saudi Arabia, and you wouldn’t believe the spacing requirements for that much ammunition to prevent one good hit on one pile from taking out all of the other nearby piles, either directly or by chain reaction.
200,000 tons in rock quarry pits required 50 miles^2 = 128 km^2. On the surface, the requirements would be 10x that, so 500 miles^2 = 1280 km^2.
45/200 ≈ 1/4
So the size of the dump to hold that much ammunition without too much risk of one pile setting off another nearby pile 125 miles^2 = 320 km^2.
I keep seeing the Ukie army doing really stupid stuff, and packing an ammo dump too tightly, such that one detonation sets off the whole thing wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.