by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
Even though the Syrian Army, with the aid of its international friends and allies, especially Russia, has been able to score many victories and liberate most of Syria’s major cities from the control of terrorist groups, the fight is far from over.
Before the situation in the American-controlled North-East is addressed, the Western regions, including Idlib and its surrounds must be put back fully under the legitimate government control.
As a matter of fact, politically speaking, the situation now is perhaps more complex to deal with than nine years ago when the “War on Syria” took form. Almost exactly nine years ago, the enemies of Syria combined efforts to launch a joint attack. United only by their hatred for Syria, they had diverse agendas, but they combined efforts in order to capitalize on each other’s strengths. The Wahhabi version of Islamists, headed by Saudi Arabia, joined hands with the Muslim Brotherhood version headed by Turkey and financed by Qatar, and they all joined hands with NATO, Israel and Lebanese ultra-right militia among other vendetta groups, for the single purpose of deposing President Assad and replacing the legitimate secular Syrian Government with one that is sectarian and pliable to the will of the Western roadmap.
They failed.
They failed in achieving their combined objectives and some of the armies they created, such as Jaysh Al-Islam, headed by former Syrian Army officer Zahran Alloush, ceased to exist. Alloush was killed in a Syrian Army attack in December 2015, but the casualties also included conspirators who were sidelined and lost their careers; the most prominent of which is Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, who was perhaps the single biggest architect of the attack on Syria.
The tides began to turn in favour of Syria after the Syrian Army scored its huge victory in the Battle of Qusayr in mid-2013. This was a decisive battle that basically disabled the terrorists from linking the Damascus province with their northern supply lines. Without this victory, in retrospect, it would be arguable if Syria would have been able to earn much support from Russia; if any at all. Syria had to show a fighting spirit, resolve, determination and respect for her to reach such an echelon. After all, Russia does not only by tradition honour and respect those who stand up with dignity against all odds, but on the geopolitical scene, and after decades of being sidelined by the Western bloc, any Russian global move had to be fully and thoroughly assessed before any venture was to be undertaken.
It was crucial for Russia therefore, and for President Putin in particular, to ensure that the presence of Russian troops in Syria had very high chances of success.
The fragmentation of Syria’s enemies began to take form before Russian action in the skies and on the soil of Syria. The Saudi’s first and biggest disappointment was when the USA refused to level Damascus to the ground after Prince Bandar orchestrated the alleged Ghouta chemical attack in September 2013. That was Bandar’s last draw after the loss of Al-Qusayr and his attempts to blackmail Putin by threatening him to unleash Islamists in Chechnya.
From that point in time onwards, the Saudi role in the “War on Syria” dwindled and came to an end with the demise of Alloush. But as the tensions between Qatar and Saudi Arabia emerged in 2017, Qatar remained “represented” via its ally Turkey.
Erdogan was initially determined to victoriously pray at the Omayyad Mosque in Damascus early in the piece. But he is still determined to get a bite of the cherry, a consolation prize, despite all the setbacks that his former camp has endured.
After Turkey downed the Russian Su-24 in November 2015, the relationship between Turkey and Russia reached its nadir. But the pragmatist Erdogan soon apologized to Putin and eventually reached an agreement about how to deal with the deadlock situation in Idlib.
But Erdogan is not coming clean about his commitment to what became to be known as the Sochi Agreement. https://thedefensepost.com/2019/10/22/russia-turkey-syria-mou/.
Erdogan defiantly continues to wear the hat of a fully-fledged NATO member, a close friend and ally of Russia, the leader of the nation that is desirous to enter the EU, an Islamist who wants to rebuild the Ottoman Empire, and a nationalist who is willing and able to deal with Kurdish issue. What he does not see is that whilst those antics gain him popularity amongst sympathetic Muslim supporters, on the international scene, he is increasingly making a mockery out of himself.
His clear-to-see contradictions seem mind-boggling, but to the pragmatic Erdogan who is trying as hard as he can to be Sultan, his mind is fixated on Islamism and nationalism, and he is performing as if he has found himself a Fatwa that permits him to dance to the tunes of the devil to reach his ultimate objectives.
Among other things, to Putin, Erdogan portrays himself as Russia’s friend who is reconsidering his alliance with the US and even wants to buy Russian S-400 defence missile systems. To America, he remains as a NATO member and an American ally who wants to buy America’s latest state-of the-art F-35 fighter jets. On one hand, he makes verbal attacks against Israel, but continues to opt to have strong diplomatic ties with that state. He pledges support for the Palestinian cause but offers no evidence to put his words into action.
If Erdogan truly deserves any recognition and respect at all, it would have to be for his ability to meander his way through and survive amongst all the contradictions that he has deliberately and systemically implanted along his path.
He could be running out of options; at least in Syria, but this doesn’t stop him from making yet more contradictory statements within a few days of each other. By the end of January 2020 he threatened to take a new offensive in Syria over the Russian-backed Syrian Army offensive in Idlib. https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202001311078189883-erdogan-threatens-new-offensive-in-syria—report/ A few days later, he made a U-turn and declared that he will not allow the situation in Idlib to sour his relationship with Russia. https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002041078225599-turkey-will-not-escalate-tensions-with-russia-over-syrias-idlib—erdogan/?fbclid=IwAR1X6tQuRrWsX5iQ3kJCJaxFoR11cnfJpj–VlYhuUu9ZXLK6OQal0kiHaw But in between the two statements which are only four days apart, the Syrian Army has shelled Turkish positions and purportedly killed six Turkish soldiers and injured about a dozen. Whilst such an unprecedented incident should have sent Erdogan firing up as one would expect, according to Palestinian veteran journalist, Abdul Bari Atwan, this wasn’t to happen this time.
In a translation-worthy article, Russia and Syria have decided to take action in Idlib and they are no longer waiting for Erdogan to abide by his promises and agreements.
Atwan’s article’s title translates as: “What does the Syrian shelling of Turkish troops in Sarakob and the killing of six Turkish soldiers signify? And, what is the Russian message to Erdogan? And, did the Russians and the Turks tear up the Sochi Agreement? And, who will emerge as a winner in the bone-crushing battle in Idlib?”
https://www.raialyoum.com/index.php/ماذا-يعني-القصف-السوري-لقوات-تركية-في-س/
According to Atwan’s analysis, the Syrian shelling of Turkish positions signaled the end of the line of joint Russian-Syrian patience with Erdogan’s lack of commitment to the Sochi Agreement. Atwan argues that opinion polls within Turkey indicate that Erdogan does not have the support of escalating in Syria and neither that of sending troops to Libya for that matter.
Did Atwan see the end of the line of Erdogan’s lies and contradictions this time? I personally hope he did. I must admit that in my previous analysis I have predicted several times that Erdogan had made his final and detrimental mistake . Somehow he always manages to slither out of the hole he was in and keep going.
Has he made his final and lethal mistake or is he going to relent and let Syria be?
Time will tell.
Truly, you have hit the nail on the head with this analysis.
Putin must have know what kind of viper Turkey was before he decided to intervene in Syria.
A tree is known by its fruits.
The most vital “deal” Erdogan will gain is Russian-Syrian control of the Syrian Kurds. That is the border security he must have.
Beyond that, he needs the millions of Syrian refugees to leave Turkey and return home. That will occur in significant numbers when reconstruction can begin. Erdogan is one of the biggest roadblocks to reconstruction.
His theft of Syrian factories and machinery has handicapped the Syrian economy. His encouragement to al Nusra and Uyghur terrorists in Aleppo and Idlib are obstacles to any reconstruction.
It will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to de-mine the provinces so it will be safe to rebuild and then move the refugees back to new homes and businesses.
Erdogan’s biggest enemy is Erdogan.
The Turkey elites and middle class have had enough of him. He has crippled his economy with the blowback from his adventures. He has to deliver a clear path or he will be cleared from the path ahead.
His only “friend” is Putin. He needs Russia and Putin more than anyone else in power.
He knows it. And he always shows it when he has to go to Moscow or Sochi or phones the Kremlin.
The Russian generals have no patience left for Erdogan. They intend to finish this war. Just look at who is laying out the facts, contradicting all the voices from Turkey. Lavrov. Russia is laying down its national resolve through its Foreign Minister. This tells you that the Military and the Kremlin are done with Erdogan’s protestations. They won’t address them.
Erdogan gets a lot as soon as Russia and Syria finish off the thousands of terrorists. Whether he tries further to obstruct the final battles or to defend with his military the terrorists is to be seen. It gets him nothing.
The smart thing he should do is seal the border on his side and let the Russians destroy every last one of the terrorists trapped in Syria. So far, he has not shown “smarts”.
“The smart thing he should do is seal the border on his side and let the Russians destroy every last one of the terrorists trapped in Syria.”
If he does, the jihadists will turn against him (and there are many in Turkey).
And insofar that would be a clever move by Putin. What remains to be wished is to put the terrorist state Israel and the Ottoman dictator against each other, let their statehood crumble. Indeed this could lead to losing the straits by Turkey and Russia will acquire Dardanellas finally! There could be a halfstep involved – as first annex Bulgaria.
“Has he made his final and lethal mistake or is he going to relent and let Syria be?”
Turkey has many fine fruits among its people, but Erdogan is not one of them.
Erdogan grew up tough and has been fighting it out, successfully for quite a long time. However, very much like Trump, he is new to military engagement, and so he may fail here. As to whether this causes failure at home, time will tell. Hes a tough bird. If he feels that he can obtain, as Larchmonter suggests,
Russian-Syrian control of the Kurds, that may be enough for him politically at home.
On the other hand, many, roughly half, of the Turks do not want this MB nonsense, and now that he has alienated the Turkish Kurds, at 20% of the population, his survival is highly problematic if his economy continues to tank.
One of the BEST (…sorry for the caps…) analyses that I did read in a long time about “friend recep” and his “antics” (…and I´m trying to be polite…). I think that it´s time to apply to this cretin a very loud slap, so that he understands at once that it is not convenient “to play with The Bear”. I´m really sick of this guy.
Well, Erdogan must also be doing something very well, because one thing is for sure, the Empire really, really hates and demonizes Erdogan and Turkey. Just see the Empire’s propaganda machine (at its core Rottenshill’s “The Economist”) the last several years.
Erdoğan is opposed by the US in the same way that Daesh and Al Qaeda are. He is one of their useful idiots. The US now has him where they want him, playing on his megalomanic neoOttoman desires. The US has long wanted to pit Turkey against the SAA. Slowly Turkey has been sucked into Syria with only the option of fight or retreat.
Erdoğan wants Syrian territory, at least as a Turkish protectorate. He has Afrin, and thought he could get Idlib. He has no intention of returning them to Syria. All of his actions and support of the terrorists/rebels speaks to this. He is in the thick of it now. He can’t bluff anymore. The US knows it and is hoping he is fool enough to declare war on Syria (hence Russia and Iran). If he does, the US achieves one of their goals by using Turks as cannon fodder to create chaos in Syria, and possibly splitting Syria for good.
Erdogan continues to pull the worlds most anticipated/expected backstab time and time again. The man is such an opportunistic, criminal. It upsets me to no end that such people, who literally have the blood of hundreds of thousands of people on their hand continue to occupy these positions of power. The few times he speaks out against the zionist colonizers of Palestine people become ecstatic. So many i know get deceived by his empty words, and have no clue the role this criminal played theoughout the crisis in Syria. He can cheat and lie all he wants, he won’t cheat death, and he cant lie on the other side.
Nice analysis, Ghassan Kadi, thank you. The earlier history was especially useful to recall. It seems an eternity ago that Bandar made his fatal threat to Putin and ceased to be a name that meant anything.
It’s useful and illustrative to measure Russia as losing its “patience” but I suspect that Russia never had any such patience to begin with. She has shown a great ability to slice the layers of escalation very thin and thus to avoid boxing any party into an irreversible position at any time – except in warfare when the absolute killing time comes.
Similarly, I think the leeway was always there with Erdogan, and that nothing of crucial importance has been lost in the time spent allowing him his maneuvers – and all this without boxing him into a showdown that Turkish pride would find very hard to accommodate. But now the time has come to liberate Idlib, and there seems to be no room left on the battlefield to slice anything any thinner. It’s killing time, and if Turkey gets in the way, then it too must die.
And I suspect this was always in the calculations of the Kremlin and its supercomputers, as a string of scenarios that drew closer and tighter with each slice.
I actually have admired the way that Erdogan has danced to so many different audiences. He was always a great politician. I suspect that if the true and final killing time now has come, he will bow to this inevitability – and of course, only at the absolute last minute.
Those who play with fire get burnt. So far Erdogan has avoided any major injuries but his time seems to be coming to an end. Desperate to salvage Syria he is coming at odds with the Russians, he is stalling to save the GNA from collapse in Libya but unlikely to succeed, has earned animosity from the UE by blackmailing them with the migration issue, humilliated the Americans by forcing them to retreat from northern Syria and throw the Kurds under the bus, plus purchasing the S-400. And on the internal front he seems to be losing popularity and has delivered mediocre economic results.
A truly remarkable performance from “Erdogan the Magnificent”.
People seem to be confused by the actions / inactions of Turkey / Russia / Syria / Iran.
This is because the forest is not seen because of all the trees (ie the tactics are visible but the strategy is unseen).
The key to seeing the big picture is quite simple really. We need to think way, way bigger than the msn and thier psyops would like us to and recognise that the global war we see being fought around us is NOT being fought primarily by the military of any nation.
It should reeally be abundantly clear by now (to all those who have really being paying attention) that the CIA/MI6/MOSSAD are the drivers of all instability in the region, not the military. For example,
What agencies were responsible for ensuring the ground was prepared for the creation of Israel in 1947?
What agencies were responsible for the 1953 coup in Iran?
What agencies created the WMD dossiers for Gulf War 1?
What agencies were responsible for Al-Quida?
What agencies produced Colour revolution after revolution, not just in the middle east but elsewhere?
What agecies were responsible for creating and arming Syrian and Iraqi ‘Moderate Terrorists’?
What agencies created and propagandised the ‘White Helmets’?
What agency flew the drone that killed Solimani?
What agencies were hit by Iran at Erbil Combined Ops centre (Shhh never speak of that hit in the mainstream) at Al-Assad air base, and the ‘other centre which has no name’?
Heck, what agency does/did ‘Mr Director’ Pompeo run before joining the Trump team (and what did President Bush Snr head and President Putin work in as a senior officer)?
Analysts must learn to recognise that the military are the fodder – the occupying boots on the ground – the base builders – the guards, or in the words of the Kissenger himself (an Israeli agency man who could not even speak American / English without a thick foreign accent): “Military men are dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy”.
OK, so now we have that cleared up, what the heck is Sultan Erdogan up to?
Firstly he has a gun to his head, several guns actually – each held by the CIA, MOSSAD, and MI6 (and possibly by some of his own 5th columnists).
Erdogans country is also occupied. Turkey has 1000’s of foreign armed troops on its soil who have more than once been used as treat against both Erdogan and Turkey (just like the occupiers of Korea, Iraq, Japan, and Germany are used as threats – look it up and research it if you cant see).
Erdogan has sinned against Israel and the US many times and they dont forget. Most notably he did not shut the Bosphorus to Korean and Syrian shipping en route to Iran via the Black Sea and the Russian Vostov-Don canal complex linking the Caspian sea and of course Iran, or for the Russian fleet during the ‘Coup’ in Crimea. For this crime an attempt at a coup was made against Erdogan – which was coordinated from US occupied territory (yes it was – look it up) and which only failed due to Russian intervention.
Russia and Turkey are strategic partners regardless if analysists recognise this or not, and Turkey and Russia (along with most of the world in fact) are targets for the Magnum Opus of the Ordo ab Chao Zionists and Luciferians who are well known to dominate western Governments.
The old plan for a greater Isreal is well know but not quite as well known (but should be by now because the US even used the new Turkish map in public) that Turkey is set to lose some of its territory to the new CIA/MOSSAD/MI6 supported state of ‘Greater Kurdistan’, the maps of which I have linked on previous comments.
The area of Syria known as ‘Idlib’ was to house a new major US/NATO airbase and serve as the beach-head for the Mediteranean section of Greater Kurdistan and claim on the oil and gas towards Cyprus which Turkey are currently also securing.
Erbil in Iraq is (or was prior to the Iranian missile attack) ‘secued’ by the US / NATO as the eastern hub, potential new capital of the CIA/MOSSAD/MI6 created ‘Greater Kurdistan’.
The new state was to pay for itself by controlling both Iraqi and Syrian oil fields (almost already a fait acompli).
Water resources (inc hydro electric power) for Greater Kurdistan (and the ‘rump’ Iraq and ‘rump’ Syria) was to be under Kurdish (US/NATO) control.
From this new nation Iran would be cut off from Iraq (as far south as Kuwait and as far north as eastern Turkey), and eventually the ‘rump’ Syria would fall under the control (political if not military) of the planned Greater Israel (Nile to Euphrates/Dier Ezor).
Russia and Turkey are well aware of the plans to break the current borders with Turkey to create the Greater Kurdistan, which will not only be used to contain and sudue Iran, but to eventually replace the government in Turkey with a puppet regime which will threaten Russia in the Black Sea.
There is currently a very sophisticated and high level co-operation in place between Russia, Iran and Turkey at a strategic level to prevent the creation of a Kurdistan of any kind- which means ‘tactical’ level events are very confusing.
The actions of Turkey in Syria (against the Assad government) are clearly half hearted at a tactical level – Turkey possess the second largest ground army in NATO and enough armour to move to Damascus (with or without Russian aggreement if they chose) and sufficient air power to decimate the Syrian military (even with S300).
So the questions to be asked should not be phased in simplistic military terms and answers provided in overly simplistic ‘Turkey bad and trecherous’ and ‘Syria good and winning’ terms.
Long-term (Strategic) geo-political issues are at stake here – so long term that few can comprehend them much less see them.
The future stability (and borders) of Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey (along with Israel, Lebanon, Eqypt, and of course Libya) are at stake here and are being fought in plain sight Behind the military opperations.
Russia did not ‘sell’ (place) the S400 system and its integratable radar array to Turkey just to annoy the US.
Turkey did not ship out 3000+ of the ‘best’ US/UK/Israeli trained and most experienced mercenaries and jihadis (plus a plane load of US supplied TOW missiles) to Libya just prior to the Idlib offensive just to ‘claim Libyan oil’.
Iran did not use its best and previously unknown Glossnas guided and active lidar array missiles with (CEP of <5m) and EW weapons on CIA control nodes and joint ops facilities at Al-Assad, Erbil, and elsewhere just to give the US a slap.
The Iranians did not shoot down there own airliner down by 'mistake' (read the real passenger manifest and draw your own conclusions).
Look, I could go on with this but I cant drop too much here – but people should really stop looking at the 'military' and look at the Civillians who actually control and even conduct combat operations (especially drone warfare).
People should especially stop looking at short term tactics and start to concentrate on the strategic reasons Russia, Turkey, and Iran in particular are acting as they are when faced with the well known strategic plans the US, UK, and Israel have the MENA and indeed the world.
Peace to all.
Thanks. Now where do we find this ‘real’ passenger manifest?
Bravo!
You said it all. Nothing to add or remove.
Hassan bey, that was excellent to read. Thank you.
Hassan Carim
Very interesting explaination. I’ve been thinking pretty much along the same lines the last couple of years, though not nearly in such detail. Your mention of the real passenger manifest of the airliner downed by Iran is intriguing, not heard about that aspect of the incident before and would like to know more about this. Could you provide more info? Or name a source I can look up?
Hasan Carim, that’s a lot of conjecture and conspiracy theories. You need to back up your claims with evidence, specially that passenger list and what/ who could have possibly been on that Ukrainian airliner shot down (deliberately) according to you. All we are aware of is that 60 odd Canadian Iranian college students and unconcerned people were on board.
@ Ahson (& JC),
The old school method of trashing a comment (or controlling and deflecting an argument or discussion) is to pick the weakest or most controversial element of the comment and attack it. That was clearly the plane sentence – which you both jumped on whilst ignoring the real ‘meat’ of my comment.
That is an old Troll technique that is still used often – Even if the original poster resists being drawn out to defend the comment (and being tied up in pointless explanations or arguments) other commenters can be baited to join pointless discussions and at least the main points, if not even the the entire message of the original comment, will be lost.
I will not fall for that trick and I hope other people don’t on this or other comment sections.
Thanks for giving me the opportunity to point out that troll trick and to more clearly state the main points of my quickly written earlier comment –
The main points of the comment:
1) To encourage a strategic view of the very confusing and convoluted situation involving the existentially strategic relationships between Turkey, Russia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria (as opposed to concentrating on short term tactical events and short term interests that may conflict).
2) Recognise that the greatest threat to Turkey (and Syria, Iraq, Iran, and eventually Russia) is currently the creation of a Greater Kurdistan with its political capital in Erbil and industrial / commercial centre in the Idlib / Allepo region of current Syria.
(After Greater Kurdistan will come the better known Greater Israel with its political order near US occupied Dier Azzor – Nile to the Euphrates and two blue line on the Israeli flag and all that).
3) Recognise that the CIA / MOSSAD / MI6 run the show in the middle east (and at home) not the military (see my Kissinger quote above).
4) Recognise that Turkey (and Erdogan) are between a rock and hard place (or between the devil and the deep blue sea) and that Turkey is really a Zio-Nato occupied nation that is being used as a logistical base for terror ops in Syria and Iraq. On one hand they are being forced (literally by threat of action and military action) to enforce and occupy the new Kurdish areas, yet on the other hand they are existentially threatened by a Kurdish state, much less the NATO – Zionist ‘Greater Kurdistan’.
5) The Turkish outposts in Syria (which Russia have advised should not be hit but simply bypassed) may be seen as different things to different people depending upon perspective – from a tactical pro or anti NATO / Ottoman perspective, or from a strategic perspective that ensures / prevents the creation of a Greater Kurdistan.
My comment was intended to simply encourage thought (and perhaps some discussion) about well know Anglo-Zionist (& Luciferian) plans to reshape the middle east and north africa – not push, argue about, or try to justify every aspect of my quickly written comment earlier comment above.
This is the ‘Greater Kurdistan’ that US / UK / Israel is very well advanced in creating (and I hope you can see why Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Russia are very, very concerned):
https://i.redd.it/93hrgfoexkm31.jpg
https://ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2012/9/syriakurd608.htm
https://i.redd.it/w41zhupqba841.jpg
And an ‘official’ albeit short term redraw on the way to another by the US (note the transitional state of ‘Greater Lebanon’: https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801251061062646-turkish-us-relations-prospects-analysis/
Peace to all.
Excellent ….thank you….hope to read more these….but in long run the whole world but europe was to be shredded into warring pieces….lest you forget to have corona with zest of lemon
This is not trashing your comment. Nobody comes here from CNN/ BBC/ Fox news. All we ask is to backup your claim that Iran deliberately downed that Ukie airliner with mostly Iranian college students heading back to their universities in Canada. Iran has acknowledged its mistake by owning up to it. There is no other evidence to the contrary. This is not trolling.
Wow, excellent high-level perspective and, sorry to split hairs, but isn’t “Luciferian” just a euphemism for “Satantic”?
So where is this manifest? I believe Mr. Escobar made a similar statement about the plane passengers some weeks back.
@ casey,
Luciferianism is not quite the same as Satanism. You are not splitting hairs by pointing this out confusion, indeed it needs a little ‘light’ shining on it.
Just like Roman Catholics and Orthodox Christians are not quite the same, Orthodox is significantly different to say The Church of Later Day saints or Southern US Baptists (esp Christian Zionists).
Rather than break it all down, the simplist way to comprehend it is that ‘Luciferians’ consider themselves the intellectual elite and that Lucifer (aka Prometheus) brought knowledge (and science, philosophy, enlightenment) to mankind – against Gods will. For that he was cast out of heaven.
The knowledge of Lucifer is symbolised by fire (as with Prometheus) and especially the lit tourch (such as the olmpic flame).
They also have their own calender and date system the ‘Anno Lucis’ calender.
Interestingly, luciferianism combines many elements of Zionism (and many scholars do not separate them).
Satanism is much more ‘viseral’ and dark. Hatred for Gods creation – especially Man and Woman and the Family, and inversion of Gods work are more central to Satanism, as is ‘Do as thou Wilt’ type doctrines such as promiscuity, greed, power, sexual perversion, canibalism, etc. Many music industry and film studio elites are Satanic and use Paedo rituals and blood rituals.
So, Luciferians = Intellectual bias and creation of global one world government under Lucifer
Satanists = Blood and physical ‘ritual’ and hedonism / corruption / inversion of Gods will, and the creation of a ‘Do as thou wilt’ global society like Soddom and Gommah.
The above is a simplification of course but I hope it helps.
(As for the original plane manifest, I cannot find it anymore. Maybe someone with a way-back machine type softwear program can get it and post it?)
That is a great peace of thought. Thanks.
@author, I am not sure if I agree with your 2013 date, because the ones who followed the situation in Syria must remember that Daesh was ready to enter Damascus in the fall of 2015. This was the main reason that pushed Russia to action.
@Hassan, I think you are whitewashing Erdogan. I said it before and I am saying it again Russia (Putin, Lavrov, Shoygu and other Russian decision makers) know pretty well who they are dealing with. Anyone in the East has dealt with Turkic people for about 600+ years as well as Russia since roughly 1100AD. They had to deal with Khazars, Mongols, Tatars and other Turkic bands, this list includes Huns, Visigoths, Goths, and others.
I’ll be short and snappy here and say that Russia did what it had to do in order to keep the Turks at bay for a while, and the while is ending now as Syria has no choice but start taking it’s territory back from Turk control.
My thinking is, all four or five countries that have significant Kurd population will have to deal with them soon as well. It seems to me that Kurds will push for their country one way or the other. Russia has been talking about federal state in Syria, but I do not think that this will work for the Kurds. They will play nice until they take their lands from Turkey first, and Erdogan knows it as he is facing a major loss of population and territory. I am pretty sure that Russia is holding back on that subject because of Western influence on Kurds.
This analysis is very good. It is disappointing to see Erdogan making the same mistakes over, and over, again. It seems that he is addicted to a combination of deception, manipulation, and use of force. However, he is in way too deep, and in a situation that he never truly had control of in the first place. The only thing that he can do to save himself is to come clean. Stop his aggressions. Stop his deceptions and manipulations. Stop his cooperation, and collaboration, with the aggressors. So far, this has not happened. Will he continue to visibly unravel, as the American president and government have chosen to do? Or will he start being more honest with himself, and choose the only real option that he actually does have? We will see.
Erdoğan is an MB Islamist extremist, an ideologue. He cannot lose this, so he will continue to make poor decisions base on his neoOttoman islamist aims. That is the main reason he confronted Syria in the first place. He also wanted to confront Iraq for similar reasons, but was not yet prime minister, and the AKP parliament voted against letting the US into Turkey.
Erdoğan is fairly transparent really. He is a clever peasant. He thinks he is using others (the US, NATO, Russia) to achieve his own aims, but, being so obvious, he is merely helping others use himself to achieve their aims.
Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Syria are all under attack from the AngloZionist Empire, and in spite of their longtime internal feuds (esp. Syria vs. Turkey) they are in essence allies and therefore increasingly cooperating with each other.
Turkey was for instance the only one who openly dared to defy the US in northeast Syria, the reason the Russians and Syrians are now (almost) in control of the Aleppo – Mosul highway, without having to fight (defy) the US openly themselves.
This war has only two sides; the AngloZionist (Terrorist) Empire and its vassals in the region such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt vs. the countries the Terrorist Empire wanted to balkanize such as Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria.
Although the Empire likes nothing more than its opponents fighting among themselves (which it therefore constantly tries to instigate), Iran, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Russia will work together even more.
Erdoğan thinks he is a third way. He imagines he can play the two sides off against each other; whereas, the two sides are well aware of his psychology and motivations, and are, instead, playing these against him. He is in way over his head, and Turkey will ultimately suffer the consequences.
Turkey’s economy is in the tank. The only way for E to stay in power is war, else AKP will be kicked out nationally in next election (He’s Presidente for life). And, he has to keep seat warm till one of sons clean up.
What are his strategic thoughts? Other than Kurdistan, its confusing.
Hi Ghassan – thanks for clarifying article – really enjoyed your writing as usual
Such a duplicitous person can never be trusted by anyone. It doesn’t bother the U.S. however because they set the gold standard for duplicity and deceit. They are the worst bad in the galaxy. Biggly bad.
Erdogan, if he was a moral man of high principles should honour his agreements and consider all the Syrian oil he stole as his reward. He should also be thankful that when he ordered the Russian jet shot down it didn’t end up being roasted Turkey dinner.
He has before himself and his nation a possibility of stability and friendly trade in the east or he can choose the decaying west which never ceases to use others before spitting them out. He is so arrogant, I expect he will make the wrong choice.
Am I the only one wondering about the fact, that this article does not sound like anything Ghassan Kadi, has written in the past, Removed – no attacks on the author. Mod. This article sounds as if written by a completely different person!
With regards to Turkey Mr. Lyndon LaRouche wrote in his book “Children of satan” in 2004, that Syria would be attacked and destroyed by western powers using regional countries Jordan and Turkey. We are talking years before the attack happened. On the other hand Samuel Huntington wrote in his clash book, that Turkey would betray anybody and everybody, if it increases the Turkish chance of membership in EU.
With regards to Erdogan or Turkey relation towards usa on one hand and Russia on the other, it seems, that Erdogan is take a page from Pakistan and its relation with usa on one hand and China on the other hand.
With regards to Russia saving city of Damascus, nothing could be further from the truth. Damascus was saved by the shia warriors, who rushed to defend the shrine of Zainab the granddaughter in Damascus, which was close to be overrun and destroyed by ISIS, who came as close as 50m from the shrine.
With regards to the Russians saving Erdogan, they may have done something. But the fact of the matter is, that only a few days after the coup, the head of IRGC said during an interview, that Erdogan was ready to defect to Qatar, and was contacted by IRGC while in his plane. He was told where to land and whom to contact and how to organize his forces and even what to say! According to IRGC, they orchestrated the whole thing directly from Iran. Here is an interview with a Turkish analyst, who is saying, that it in fact was General Soleimani himself, who organized the response and neutralized the coup:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGNDObJ0sOI
Nobody is denying the russian role in Syria, but we are being denied constantly!
“…..and he is performing as if he has found himself a fatwa that permits him to dance to the tune of the devil…” rotflmao, Brilliant!
Thank you,Ghassan Khadi.
Mr Ghassan Kadi’s astute analysis of a rapidly developing event is quite a riveting read as expected. It has filled the gaps and has changed portions of my perspective of the Idlib battle. Though, I must mention Mr Hassan Carim’s intriguing hypothesis on how recent potential flashpoints all relate to what is currently in play. The enemy’s nature of duality was previosly unknown to me, has spurred my interest to find more information on it. I will also do some searching on that aforementioned aircraft manifest, and share whatever my amateur attempt may luckily find. Cheers!