China and Russia will be key to solving an ancient geopolitical riddle: how to pacify the ‘graveyard of empires’
By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times
So this is the way the Forever War in Afghanistan ends – if one could call it an ending. Rather, it’s an American repositioning.
Regardless, after two decades of death and destruction and untold trillions of dollars, we’re faced not with a bang – and not with a whimper, either – but rather with a pic of the Taliban in Tianjin, a nine-man delegation led by top political commissioner Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, solemnly posing side by side with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Nine Taliban representatives meet with Chinese officials in Tianjin. In the center are Taliban co-founder Mullah Baladar and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry
Lateral echoes of another Forever War – in Iraq – apply. First, there was the bang: the US not as “the new OPEC,” as per how the neo-con mantra had visualized it, but with the Americans not even getting the oil. Then came the whimper: “No more troops” after December 31, 2021 – except for the proverbial “contractor” army.
The Chinese received the Taliban on an official visit in order once again to propose a very straightforward quid pro quo: We recognize and support your political role in the process of Afghan reconstruction and in return you cut off any possible links with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, regarded by the UN as a terrorist organization and responsible for a slew of attacks in Xinjiang.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang explicitly said, “The Taliban in Afghanistan is a pivotal military and political force in the country, and will play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction there.”
This follows Wang’s remarks back in June, after a meeting with the foreign ministers of Afghanistan and Pakistan, when he promised not only to “bring the Taliban back into the political mainstream” but also to host a serious intra-Afghan peace negotiation.
What’s implied since then is that the excruciatingly slow process in Doha is leading nowhere. Doha is being conducted by the extended troika – US, Russia, China, Pakistan – along with the irreconcilable adversaries, the Kabul government and the Taliban.
Mullah Baradar speaks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right foreground) in Tianjin. Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry
Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem stressed that the Tianjin meeting focused on political, economic and security issues, with the Taliban assuring Beijing that Afghan territory would not be exploited by third parties against the security interests of neighboring nations.
This means, in practice, no shelter for Uighur, Chechen and Uzbek jihadis and shady outfits of the ISIS-Khorasan variety.
Tianjin has been added as a sort of jewel in the crown to the current Taliban diplomatic offensive, which has already touched Tehran and Moscow.
What this means in practice is that the real power broker of a possible intra-Afghan deal is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by the Russia-China strategic partnership.
Russia and China are meticulously monitoring how the Taliban have been capturing several strategic districts in provinces from Badakhshan (Tajik majority) to Kandahar (Pashtun majority). Realpolitik dictates that the Taliban be accepted as serious interlocutors.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is working closer and closer within the SCO framework. Prime Minister Imran Khan could not be more adamant when addressing US public opinion: “Washington aimed for a military solution in Afghanistan, when there never was one,” he said.
“And people like me who kept saying that there’s no military solution, who know the history of Afghanistan, we were called – people like me were called anti-American,” he said. “I was called Taliban Khan.”
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan (R) meets with Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (2d from the window on the left side of the picture) and his delegation in Islamabad on December 18, 2020. Photo: AFP / Pakistan Prime Minister Office
We are all Taliban now
The fact is that “Taliban Khan,” “Taliban Wang” and “Taliban Lavrov” are all on the same page.
The SCO is working all-out to present a road map for a Kabul-Taliban political settlement in the next round of negotiations in August. As I have been chronicling it – see, for instance, here and here – it’s all about a comprehensive economic integration package, where the Belt and Road Initiative and its affiliated China-Pakistan Economic Corridor interacts with Russia’s Greater Eurasia Partnership and overall Central Asia-South Asia connectivity.
A stable Afghanistan is the missing link in what could be described as the future SCO economic corridor, which will integrate every Eurasian player from BRICS members India and Russia to all Central Asian ‘stans.
Both President Ashraf Ghani’s government in Kabul and the Taliban are on board. The devil, of course, is in the details of how to manage the internal power play in Afghanistan to make it happen.
The Taliban have done their crash course on geopolitics and geoeconomics. In Moscow, in early July, they had a detailed discussion with Kremlin envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov.
In parallel, even the former Afghan ambassador to China, Sultan Baheen – no Taliban himself – admitted that for the majority of Afghans, irrespective of ethnic background, Beijing is the preferred interlocutor and mediator in an evolving peace process.
So the Taliban seeking high-level discussions with the Russia-China strategic partnership is part of a carefully calculated political strategy. But that brings us to an extremely complex question: To which Taliban are we referring?
There’s no such thing as a “unified” Taliban. Most old-school top leaders live in Pakistan’s Balochistan. The new breed is way more volatile – and feels no political constraints. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement, with a little help from Western intel, might easily infiltrate some Taliban factions inside Afghanistan.
Very few in the West understand the dramatic psychological consequences for Afghans – whatever their ethnic, social or cultural backgrounds – of living essentially under a state of non-stop war for the past four decades: USSR occupation; intra-mujahideen fighting; Taliban against Northern Alliance; and US/NATO occupation.
The last “normal” year in Afghan society was way back in 1978.
Andrei Kazantsev, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and director of the Center for Central Asia and Afghanistan Studies at the elite MGIMO in Moscow, is uniquely positioned to understand how things work on the ground.
He notes something I saw for myself numerous times; how wars in Afghanistan are a mix of weaponizing and negotiation:
There is a little fighting, a little talking, coalitions are formed, then there is fighting again; talking again.
Some have defected over, betrayed each other, fought for a while, and then returned. It’s a completely different culture of warfare and negotiation.
The Taliban will simultaneously negotiate with the government and continue their military offensives. These are just different tools of different wings of this movement.
I’m buying: how much?
The most important fact is that the Taliban are, de facto, a constellation of warlord militias. What this means is that Mullah Baradar in Tianjin does not speak for the whole movement. He would have to hold a shura with every major warlord and commander to sell them whatever political road map he agrees with Russia and China.
This is a huge problem as certain powerful Tajik or Uzbek commanders will prefer to align themselves with foreign sources, say Turkey or Iran, instead of whoever will be in power in Kabul.
The Chinese might find a detour around the problem by literally buying everyone and his neighbor. But that still wouldn’t guarantee stability.
What Russia-China are investing in with the Taliban is to extract iron-clad guarantees:
- Don’t allow jihadis to cross Central Asian borders – especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan;
- Fight ISIS-Khorasan head-on and don’t allow them sanctuary, as the Taliban did with al-Qaeda in the 1990s; and
- Be done with opium poppy cultivation (you did give it up in the early 2000s) while fighting against drug trafficking.
An Afghan farmer harvests opium sap from a poppy field in Dara-l-Nur, District of Nangarhar province, in 2020. Photo: AFP / Wali Sabawoon / NurPhoto
No one really knows whether the Taliban political wing will be able to deliver. Yet Moscow, much more than Beijing, has been very clear: If the Taliban go soft on jihadi movements, they will feel the full wrath of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
The SCO, for its part, has kept an Afghan contact group since 2005. Afghanistan is an SCO observer and may be accepted as a full member once there’s a political settlement.
The key problem inside the SCO will be to harmonize the clashing interests of India and Pakistan inside Afghanistan.
Once again, that will be up to the “superpowers” – the Russia-China strategic partnership. And once again, that will be at the heart of arguably the top geopolitical riddle of the Raging Twenties : how to finally pacify the “graveyard of empires.”
I think the key to all this is China’s belt and road initiative: a strong partnership for Afghanistan in the terms of economy and trades. Afghanistan has a lot of potential for producing goods (of course not opium) and for providing transport of goods between Asia and Europe.
Don’t forget the lithium. Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material that the AngloZionist Empire coveted, but now most likely will be tapped by China. Cooperation and mutual self-interest beats domination and exploitation every time.
I just hope that doesn’t end (once again) in child labour and other form of human exploitation and destruction of environment. Nevertheless, I’m quite optimistic the new partnership with Russia and China will be beneficial for Afghanistan.
Oh Lenard, I’m sure even if tapping Afghan mineral riches does not involve child-slave labor, someone would find glitches and point fingers crying: there, there, Chinaman employing child labor again. I’m sure because whether it is child/slave labor or simple pursuit of economic betterment is a ‘view’ in one’s own mind. And the ones I’m talking about who would spread ‘mental poison’ happens to own most of the propaganda infrastructures presently used in most parts of the world.
Like you, I’m optimistic China/Russia will bring real benefits to this war ravaged part of the world. After 50+ years of miseries, I hope Afghanis are ‘woke’, and know who their friends are.
Let me add, 20 years of occupation have only wreaked havoc in Afghanistan. The US invasion was never about “nation building”, only nation destroying. It was always about the opium, billions and billions of dollars to fund CIA black ops.
Basically Washington was copying the opium wars by the British in China, when they were trying to conquer Afghanistan. Only in a even more messed up way…
USA and UK are both guilty of mass murder in the Muslim World. Problems for the enemy of ISLAM just the beginning in 2020.
Exactly, remember the West is excellent employing double standards. Talks about how China were making Montenegro a puppet state by building a highway bridge for them. Without mentioning *once* the decades of destruction of Yugoslavia and later Serbia by the West, that lead to the surge of a failed micro state like Montenegro. Montenegro would be in civil war right now, if officials in Podgorica hadn’t reached out to foreign investors (and unilaterally declaring the Euro their currency) and now they are effectively another military base for the Americans on the Balkan.
I’m quite sure though the Afghans are awake now and know their real friends, as you put it. It will take some time, but we will see the effects of Russian and Chinese investments in a few years. I’m convinced the effect will be positive.
Of course opium!
Opium is an invaluable drug used in hospices for the management of pain from cancer. I read that cancer patients can receive far heavier doses than addicts take but without becoming addicted. It is infuriating to see the way the U$A restored opium production in Afghanistan, sold opioids to addicts instead of to pain clinics, and wasted the revenue from opium sales by funding CIA terrorism instead of using the money to fund medical research into the causes and cure of pain and addiction.
Dear Dr. Maroudas,
I perfectly understand your arguments. And I want to make clear, that I have no objections if opioids are used in a reasonable and responsible way. Just the sheer masses of opium produced in Afghanistan and the fact that it goes almost inclusively to junkies are two of the main problems. The third is of course, that monocultures in farming are destroying environments and other potentials (like producing foods!) are not really used right now…
Lenard, pardon the touch of vehemence in my reply to your innocent aside, but misuse of Afghan poppy fields is a sore point with me. You are right: the real evil is the gross imbalance in U$ production of opium in Afghanistan, both in quantity and in destination. And as you say, monoculture is likewise a global curse; as far as I know, yours is the first mention on Saker Vineyard of this important topic. Both monoculture and maldistribution arise from looking at agriculture as a cash flow operation.
Dear Dr. Maroudas,
You are most correct – farming monoculture is an extremely important geopolitical weapon.
It has been a tool of empires for centuries.
For example, in the 19th century, the British moved first-class Egyptian cotton to India to control both – impoverish Egypt and cause famine in India (along with replacement of food crops with opium).
Such aggression on peoples food supply was enforced by massive standing armies, among largest on earth, by the British East India Co.
How many nations experienced man-made famines during the British Raj, and currently?
Currently, selling agriculture as a cash flow operation to nations is the cover.
Among the real objectives are undermining food self-sufficiency, controlling imported food logistics (easier if you control sea-lanes), weakening small farmers, tethering nations to reserve currency and speculative exchange rates, etc. Which ever country plays into this game, and most in global south have by now through hook or by crook, defacto lost sovereignty and became impoverished.
It is the equivalent of control files on politicians in the west, but on the rulers of countless nations.
As boasted by US senators in 1940s and later Kissinger, he who controls food will control nations.
Honest economists and analysts of WB conditional loans, IMF structural agreements with nations, USAID, etc have commented on these unnatural systemic patterns since WWII.
Please review John Perkins’ “Confessions of an Economic Hit man.”
The only weapon to rival this derived global food insecurity has been the usurious fiat currency.
l love the symbol value of the CCP and PRC leaders meeting with the Talibs in Tiānjīn and not in Bĕijing: Didn’t they just a few days before accord the same venue in the same building to a meeting wit a US of North A undersecretess of state — and thus relegate both to an equal ranking?
Anyhow Tiānjīn has far superior Central Asian muslim cooking than one finds in Bĕijing.
I have notised that the Talibs have stopped referring to their envoys in the masculine gnender, avoyding words like “he” both in English and Pashtû (Persian/Dâri is jender neutral anyhow) : Sign of times a-changin’?
China didn’t want to recognize the Taliban as full diplomatic partners when they have not proven they are reliable and when Russia (who talks with them) still labels them “terrorist”.
The Taliban have to satisfy both Russia and China in order to be treated as if they are really capable national leaders. It is a long journey yet ahead of them.
If that’s the case then does that mean the Chinese government, by choosing Tianjin, subtly equate the US government & Wendy Sherman with the Taliban? (LOL!)
The young interpreter on the photo is a Chinese Tajik from Tashkurghan (klose to the Pamirs and the small “appendix of Afghanistan towards China) who studied Modern Farsi and Dâri at Peking University (BĕiDà) at one time, and has learned Pashtô from postings differing places in Afghanistan.
“The last “normal” year in Afghan society was way back in 1978”
Ah, yes, I remember it well:
https://imgur.com/r/OldSchoolCool/rNE64Ch
https://i.redd.it/b4kkh16qew361.jpg
“But that brings us to an extremely complex question: To which Taliban are we referring?”
I am referring to the new normal Taliban, the men who beat the Yanks and will now get rid of what the Yanks brought with them: nutjobs with guns from the religious backwoods of K$A & U$A.
Thank you, Pepe. Well-written, instructive, and inspiring as always. At the end, this passage brought my instant attention:
” /…/ certain powerful Tajik or Uzbek commanders will prefer to align themselves with foreign sources, say Turkey or Iran, instead of whoever will be in power in Kabul.”
Afghanistan is the kind of place The Magnificent Sultan RTE absolutely loves to ’visit’ — invited or uninvited. The quote hints at such a possibility (’say Turkey or Iran’). Are there any tangible signs of His Highness stirring up trouble in Afghanistan? A top-class scavenger like RTE certainly shouldn’t let any war-torn Muslim country off the hook, especially not when there is tremendous flux in the tides of fortune.
One needs not to read this excellent Mr. Escobar’s account, but just to see the group picture, to grasp what is going on in Central Asia.
This is a good example of overused saying “A picture is worth a thousand words”. This one surely is worth every single word from that thousand.
Nine Taliban representatives, shoulder to shoulder, with no other one, but with Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi, personally (not any third deputy of the second deputy etc). Mr. Wang Yi is the highest foreign representative of mighty China, clearly showing the significance which China pays to Afghanistan (peace establishing process).
No better illustration for Mr. Escobar’s notice: “the Taliban are, de facto, a constellation of warlord militias . . . Mullah Baradar in Tianjin does not speak for the whole movement”.
In other words, they do not believe each other, and a representative of each of them should be present there. Bad news for peace process. Good news: there are only nine of them, not e.g. 15 or 20, having on mind 40 years of continuous war.
What is to be done (?) (to borrow a question from Lenin) but to deal with certain highlanders over there, tribe chieftains, with short- and narrow-sighted views and interests, with a hope to transform them in just one political entity. And there is Kabul. And there is . . .
Mission impossible? Not quite, perhaps not at all, if we read insightful words of professor Kazantsev. I am sure that Russia knows the soul of the Afghans (she had an opportunity to learn it thoroughly). As for China, she is very careful and wise, knowing how to place a good offer (which can’t be refused) even to such warlords. It is a winning combination. Just to add, win-win is also a main business principle of Chinese foreign policy.
Here in Norway, prices of illegal opiates and also hashis. have have not by far followed the general price increase for other stuff in Norwegian KRONER — NOR IN THE REST OF THE NORDIC COUNTRIES –DURING THE 20-YEAR INVATIONS OF AFGHANISTAN ) Since the KING of Norway — one delinquent HARALD (NOT a norwegian citizwn, since all other are to have a family name –which this ‘king1 has not) — in his capacity of being Supreme Commander for the intevention into Afghan areas — for keeping those prices real low and allowing junkies in Oslo to die from over-doses. The royal Castle commandeers the approach to the main market place for drugs near the Hauptbahnhof in Oslo — so he should be in the know, this Harald who is nor a citzen of Norwaf king Harald faces the “”this Harald who is nor a citzen of Norway
This as just one example of how Anglo-,US- zionist rule is infecting one small Nordic country.
After World War II, the Americans had a special eye on Norway for being able to control not only Skandinavia but northern Europe, the northern Atlantic, the routes to the Arctic and routes leading to the north and and baltic sea.
Stalin managed to convince Sweden and Finland to stay neutral (which later proved to be highly beneficial for their people, similar to what happened to Austria).
For the Americans however, that was a big problem as they needed to approach the USSR’s border as near as possible – and be able to control parts of the Arctic and provoke as much as possible, provoke World War III.
That’s why Washington’s scheme was to fully integrate Norway into NATO. In fact Norway is probably one of the most submissive NATO members , sometimes even more submissive than Germany. I mean, spooky creep Jens Stoltenberg is from Norway. Decades of American propaganda to the Norwegian people are showing results.
Old Afghan fol song:
“On the other side of the river
lives a youth with a butt like a peach
and I can swim, I can swim. I can swimm!”
Heard by me in Pool-i-Kumbri 1977.
Can we have the original?
There wouldn’t be ongoing diplomatic efforts on the geopolitical stage if the talibs weren’t trusted. Open channels in Pak, Iran, Russia and now China suggest a degree of mutual understanding, trust and some hope. Skepticism is bottom of the list if applicable.
The many defamations against the talibs have revealed their true source and that will continue unabated. They never were instigators of foreign attacks and their birth stemmed from a spiralling civil war being fought by diff warlords to stake their claim. They almost put an end to these shenanigans until the US concocted a humongous lie and came to the aid of their misguided and power driven proxies. They (talibs) had a genuine patriotic zeal for their land and fearless as they are swept province after province when hope was fading away.
There judgment on foreign fighters was premature in the beginning and there was friction between those whose goals went beyond Afghanistan. It was always a distraction to their cause and in the end they never got to the stage of establishing a stable functioning govt with clear ideals and goals. That was never going to be allowed for whatever reason.
People may have an issue about their Islamic credentials and traditions but that is actually admirable as against those who establish the secular Liberal philosophy open to degradation and servitutide. The history of this land is what it is. The test of their maturity is to be able to balance the many diverse groups and ethnicities. This is the area they have to rise above their own and provide security based on justice and equality. I do believe they are capable because they in no way represent the salafist methodology but are adherents of the four established orthodox schools which have stood the test of time. They rely on a elderly scholarly shura (consultative) method for decision making and council. This is a significant distinction. There is a sizable Shia minority in the region and perhaps in some provinces more than significant which needs to be handled wisely. There should be a sense of broad respect based on justice. This must have been a discussion they had with Iran when they met though certainly not on the top of the agenda as they have been neighbours much longer than people might remember. The anti Western stance of the Iranian govt and being in empires crosshairs should help facilitate a cooperative understanding.
The more important aspects of all these diplomatic engagements is the belief and hope such neighbours have in the talibs ability and responsibility to curtail insurgency from their territory being used abroad. This isn’t an easy task but one that is achievable by the talibs and hence the extension of diplomatic channels that have opened their way. In fact their real battle has been all along the US and the proxy govt which never had any real legitimacy or respect in the eyes of most. They will never be able to unshackle the dishonour of aiding and abetting the scandalous invasion and murderous war of twenty years on a pretext which nobody believed but went along with for their own selfish ends. These things are hardly ever forgivable, especially in the graveyard of empires. If that doesn’t qualify as a heinous form of terrorism against one’s own people then such people have essentially lost a large degree of sanity. This proxy well trained and equipped force is over 300,000 strong and has held a degree of impunity for almost two decades. That is essentially a stay behind army and not one that will reconcile or reform to the new reality very easily. Somehow the talibs will have to find a way to reconcile this position which they have at least called for and in some cases have managed to hold negotiations with some while making recent gains.
I would add that the talibs know better than most the use of proxies by empire not just in the guise of installed govts but radical islamists trying to hijack their real cause. The original Al Qaida variety pre nineleven managed to achieve goodwill in Afghanistan due to their help and support in the early days. This goodwill overstayed its welcome when Taliban founder Mullah Omar was at odds with their behaviour and goals. It was to no avail as decisions had been made across the world to paint a specific picture of the reality and more broadly to initiate grand chessboard moves in the longer goal of Eurasian power play. Today IS khorasan plays this role of spoiler as well as others and such continuing chaos sheds light on their true benefactors.
I wish I could be optimistic but the above spoilers are less than half the problem. The US seems intent to keep peeping over the fence in the words of the Russian DM. Airstrikes have escalated recently. On a more nuanced level I feel the hasty withdrawal by the US was in part to send a message to an unfortunate ally of Israel in our current times. An ally that is hurt and left isolated and itself has grand ambitions for the region. Yes India. I wish I didn’t have to say this but the reality seems plausible. Its current right wing govt has established itself on a nationalist drive that has convinced powerful supporters of its own destiny. The shock withdrawal and the prospect of losing its multi billion investments it foolishly put into the Proxy govt for twenty years as well as supporting the US invasion Eurasian agenda has backfired horrifyingly. A China, Russian, Pak, Iran and now taliban based Eurasian connectivity is a twist of unforeseen fate. A major SCO building block with an added integral piece. Indian intelligence played its role with the afghan govt to circumvent this unforeseen twist. Hence, the hasty US withdrawal was a dagger to Indian reservations to step up its own desired goals and play its part. Indian media has entertained this addiction with a small dose of steroids. Its a major power and hurt. Not a good recipe with a right wing mindset prevailing in the country. Personally, I hope the good people of India which are on the defensive and not wanting to be considered anti national rise to prevent such talk from materialising.
In reality this is where the power diplomacy of Russia, China, Iran and regional players needs to be alert and help facilitate a reconciliation with increased vigour between the talibs and the afghan govt to circumvent foreign meddling. I couldn’t agree more the Russian deputy FM calling the afghan govt hypocritical in holding its ground. The reality is around them and to prevent the country from sliding into a civil war is horrendously irresponsible. I don’t blame the talibs wanting Ashraf ghani to step down he has displayed arrogance and selfishness in his position. But for the sake of the country it is necessary. The talibs will have to make concessions too. There has to be good faith which they have at least illustrated for quite some time in prolonged negotiations. There will be territorial skirmishes to stake each others claims. The talibs have certainly earned their right with the defeat of the the imperial US/NATO.
The mutual understanding the talibs are staking with their foreign diplomatic flirtations are twofold. Talibs are giving assurances on their part. On the other side the assurance is that no US bases should be facilitated in the region to launch illegal airstrikes against us and to prevent the flow of radical islamists from such places strengthening anti talib insurgencies. The Russians have influence in central Asia and talks have been made in this regard, despite Russia sending warnings of its own CSTO obligations also. Pakistan PM has firmly and wisely rejected the use of its territory. This is cause for optimism. India is a potential hosting ground even though the US is present in the middle east which would be unpopular but not surprising. The point is the options are limited and powerful players are looking at reconciliation.
I believe the talibs are sincere in their perspective and should be given support by various players to force the afghan govt to the negotiating table before things slowly get out of hand.
I humbly thank you for this wide-reaching comment, and Pepe for bringing the complexity of issues vividly to mind. Just as I thank Saker for hosting the drama, as drama it is. My prayers, puny though they be, accompany hopes for success in bringing peace to Afghanistan’s suffering peoples.
Couldnt agree more with your deep felt prayers. Thank you
I second juliania’s thanks to you all.
You seem like a good person to ask your thoughts on this piece from
The Intercept’s
Andrew Quilty
December 18 2020, 3:01 a.m.
“Beginning in December 2018 and continuing for at least a year, Afghan operatives believed to belong to an elite CIA-trained paramilitary unit known as 01, in partnership with U.S. special operations forces and air power, unleashed a campaign of terror against civilians. This story is based on interviews with more than 50 Wardak residents, including 20 survivors and firsthand witnesses and 29 victims’ relatives and local residents who witnessed the aftermath of the killings within hours of when they occurred. Some of those accounts were corroborated by local officials, analysts, and community representatives.
The 10 raids resulted in the deaths of at least 51 civilians, according to The Intercept’s reporting. In most cases, men and boys as young as 8, few of whom appear to have had any formal relationship with the Taliban, were summarily executed. Some died alone, others alongside friends and family. Several raids were accompanied by airstrikes or, in at least one instance, the detonation of hand-laid explosives targeting structures known to be occupied by civilians”
https://theintercept.com/2020/12/18/afghanistan-cia-militia-01-strike-force/
This is a sizable CIA force the Taliban must address somehow. Given the source, is the reporting accurate?
I don’t know if your question was directed at me. I am not familiar with the source link but the read was disturbing and the concern familiar. Refer to the pdf document titled as below. It will confirm and clarify much of what you assert. (a search in Google should bring up this document) :
The CIA’s “Army”:
A Threat to Human Rights and an Obstacle to Peace in Afghanistan
Astri Suhrke1 and Antonio De Lauri2
Chr. Michelsen Institute
August 21, 2019
The special operations group that are known as the cia’s army due to being outside of the installed afghan govts military jurisdiction. The regional grouping of these paramiltary forces particularly skilled in aggressive night raids coincide with the account you provided. The incident itself may well be documented in the footnotes. Towards the end abuses that occurred in the wardak province are noted.
A point I was referring to is that US imperialism intends and hopes for a continuation of internal chaos. They have created a significant military apparatus and has the potential for further destabilisation and destruction. Almost a case of, if we can’t win we won’t let you either. National building, infrastructure developments as well as minority and women rights are slogans to window dress the invasion and occupation I’m afraid. Such marketing of words have provided a successful psychological operation on western minds but also globally. Not that such initiatives require some attention in many places around the world.
As Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan are supportive of reconciliation and have extended invites along these lines, the afghan govt stubbornly and reluctantly is holding its ground despite the internal conflct escalating. The US has maintained support and airstrikes and India is also continuing its support. This situation is therefore tenuous and dangerous. Trky is negotiating to keep a military guard at kabul Airport as well as the continuation of training afghan special forces. Pakistan can be influenced by Trky but needs to remain neutral and supportive of the talibs position and reconciliation. Trky is displaying indifference by its position and should adopt the sensible position others have done rather than brushing aside talibs warnings. It is a provocative position to continue training forces untrusted and very much a part of the US impunity detailed in the document above. The Doha agreement establishes the withdrawal of natoo forces and that clearly includes Trky.
The vacuum right now will intensify clashes from both sides to increase their stake for an advantage in the continuing future arrangements. I haven’t touched on the presence of military contractors including small forces of supportive intelligence agencies.
It is for this reason I feel the talibs will reciprocate and press hard to take kandahar and its airport as well key border crossings.This will function as counterweight to kabul Airport and the current capital the afghan govt legitimises itself in. It seems obvious to me that the talibs will push for reconciliation on their terms with some concessions but at the same time will not be content with any unwelcome foreign military presence and support outside those terms. These terms are a loss for the current afghan govt and therefore it will hold out until the writing is on the wall which doesn’t seem as imminent as some speculate.
I therefore consider this a rather critical and dangerous period in and of itself. The good news is that there are powerful states with a reasonable desire for peace, particularly, to forward the Eurasian goals playing in the background. It is this diplomatic engagement that can and may effect foreign interference and meddling.
It would’ve been tremendously helpful for Pepe to have investigated the recent killings of Chinese engineers in Pakistan, before writing this sensational article. A dozen Chinese engineers working on the faltering CPEC project have been killed by the Pakistani Taliban in just the last dozen or so days. Reminds us of the killing of a dozen Iranian diplomats in 1998 in Mazar Sharif. China is not a fool, and neither are Russia nor Iran to trust these wahabbi talibs. Pashto society on both sides of the Durand is pretty hard core extremist, factoring in ETIM or not. Nobody trusts the taliban and never will. Surprised Pepe hasn’t understood this yet. And this constant harping on opium? Who wants expensive opium/ Heroine, when you’ve got high grade/ extremely potent Chinese fentanyl and meth available for half price now? Why would someone buy expensive opium or heroine now? when you could be strung out for days on cheap fentanyl or meth? There is no comparison here. The Chinese have blown away all competition.
The Pakistani taliban is an obfuscation intended to defame the genuine afghan Taliban. They are a different offshoot with salafist leanings and operate on the fringes. There are many suspicions of intelligence agencies working in collaboration. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some affiliations but not in sowing discord on neighbouring Pakistan. Had your assertions warranted serious merit Pakistan PM wouldnt have spoken for their cause on the diplomatic stage. Its in fact rather illogical.
And if you payed attention, the talibs have rejected Turkey’s application for guarding Kabul Airport. They know they were part of Natoo’s mission even if a supporting role. They know full well the importance of radical individual movements through airports as well as drugs and they stated their opposition candidly.
It also begs the question how naive foreign diplomats are for extending a degree of optimism to such dastardly warriors.
It seems you have accepted pretty much the western picture of reality.
You can’t justify wahabbiism by declaring one a salafi the other a takfiri and the third a moderate terrorist and the fourth a jihadist head chopper, and then turn around and say look what the west and foreign intelligence agencies are plotting here, when we know Pakistan is complicit in all this jihadi mess. We also know who gave sanctuary to Osama and to Al-Qaeda leadership. Pakistan’s been in bed with the Anglo zionists since 1947. You expect us to trust Pakistan? Do you honestly think Russia, China and Iran can trust Pakistan or Turkey? Have a long think before you respond. There is zero trust! Even today your country provides the US with open air corridors to attack your own jihadists among the talibs……this behavior is very similar to Erdogans in the Sy-Raq. You don’t see a problem here?
Chinese meth? Can’t say that I’ve heard of it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55048147
https://cen.acs.org/policy/global-health/Afghanistans-crystal-meth-boom-rooted/99/i13
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-07/iranian-australians-tricked-into-importing-methamphetamine/13223190
I will admit, I have not heard of Chinese meth, so I won’t comment on it.
What I will comment on is that Afghano-Iranian meth in the world today, is like Thai meth of the early 2000s, but even more widespread.
For every Iranian meth shipment that the Aussies capture and confiscate, at least 30 others make it through.
And the market for Afghano-Iranian meth isn’t limited to Australia. It goes wherever there is a demand.
The scale and quantity of dirt cheap meth that is produced by random idiots in Iran is beyond calculation. It seems every other person is breaking bad in Iran, and they have been for the last 10-15 years.
The world sanctions Iran and invades and bombs and occupies Afghanistan. Iranians and Afghans have to make a living, no? They won’t let Iranians sell rugs and pistachio and saffron, so Iranians sell meth. What better way to say thank you? err f*** you.
The Iranian establishment’s unofficial stance on the matter is: lift the sanctions and we will stop flooding the West with narcotics.
In another thread you stated that you think the Taliban are not close to Iranians. How does the Taliban earn money? And who is organizing all the drugs that enter Iran from Afghanistan, on the Afghan side?
The quantities of opium that we are talking about are quite significant. A few years ago, an acquaintance of mine used to say that one metric ton of opium hits the ground in Tehran each and every day, nevermind the heroin.
Clearly, practically all of the opium and heroin in Iran is coming from Afghanistan.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/455858/Iran-seizes-over-46-tons-of-narcotics-psychoactive-drugs-in — “Iran seizes over 46 tons of narcotics, psychoactive drugs in month”
..just so you get an idea of the scale of the narcotic trade that Iranians are involved in..
“TEHRAN – Iran seized 46,633 kilograms of various narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances from October 22 to November 11, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative to the Vienna-based international organizations has said.
The highest seized type was opium with 36,288 kg, followed by 3,958 kg of hashish, 3,931 kg of other substances including precursors and psychotropic pills, 936 kg of Grass, 634 kg of Morphine, 558 Heroin and 265 kg of Crystal, he wrote in a statement..”
On the Iranian side, there are numerous independent cartels, and also the IRGC, who smuggle the drugs in from Afghanistan. Who are they working with on the other side, if not the Taliban?
Who, in Afghanistan, is organized enough to manage such quantities of narcotics? The Afghan government? They’ve barely been around long enough for their balls to drop. The Afghanistan-Iran narcotics trade has been going on since before the US invaded Afghanistan.
Iran has a death penalty for drug trafficking and even in cases of personal possession. These industrial quantities confiscated daily coming in via corruption/ negligence/ innovation on the part of the Afghan drug lords attest to this truth. You need to get up to speed on the worlds most popular opiate ‘Fentanyl’…….and the worlds largest drug consumer country the US of A. Iran is not even in the top 10 on the list of illicit drug consumers. Likewise you also need to know China’s role in the global distribution/ supply of all the precursors required to make both Fentanyl and Crystal Meth. The Opiate (Fentanyl/ Meth) crises in the West is made in China. Iran is number 2 on this planet for executions, and its reasonable to assume that most of those executed are in fact drug related criminals:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/08/chinese-company-helping-fuel-opioid-epidemic/596254/
> The Opiate (Fentanyl/ Meth) crises in the West is made in China.
Blaming the American opiate crisis on wholesale Chinese chemicals is like blaming America’s murder crisis on Chinese metal foundries. It’s sinophobic nonsense.
If you read the attached article, you will know that all the precursors of both meth and fentanyl are made in China……All being smuggled into the US via the Mexican narco cartels. What part of that is difficult to deny? Or is this a conspiracy too?……ever heard about profit?
Do you also cry “Chinese conspiracy” when you cut your finger on a tin can manufactured in China?
America is dependent on far more than narcotic precursors from China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/world/middleeast/iran-drugs-death-penalty.html
Iran doesn’t execute drug offenders anymore, for a few years now.
Sometimes, it’s ok to admit you don’t know something.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/13/breaking-bad-tehran-iran-crystal-meth-methamphetamine
“According to a 2013 study by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the Iranian government first reported manufacture of the drug just six years ago, when four production facilities were seized. By 2012, though, Iran was the world’s fourth highest importer of pseudoephedrine, the main precursor chemical used in the production of crystal meth.”
Draw your own conclusions.
Sorry, no amount of obfuscation of the Chinese fentanyl/ meth issue will hide the CIA opium propaganda people here spread as gospel. Would you like me to list the OD opiate deaths statistics for the US? And what drugs are involved?…….hint, its not Heroine or opium!
I think it will be of considerable interest in times to come to see how the governance structures of Afghanistan evolve. The traditional shura system has already come to structure the Taliban itself. This essentially feudal institution is based on tribal and regional life, forces that can be expected to resist a centralised political power just as they refused the impositions of foreigners. In the old days the tribal negotiating tradition was ‘crowned’ by a monarchy which usually functioned as a ‘first among equals’. How an executive authority will be established in a stable way remains to be seen. But it will certainly be an issue. Afghanistan’s neighbours are set to pour money into the country and a federal government, already in existence, is certain to grow, in whatever form. What I found of the greatest interest in Pepe’s report concerns Foreign Minister Wang’s remarks to the Ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan ‘where he promised not only to bring the Taliban back into the political mainstream, but also to host a serious intra-Afghan peace negotiation.’ Given the ‘internationalist’ nature of the tribal leaders themselves (‘certain powerful Tajik or Uzbek commanders will prefer to align themselves with foreign sources, say Turkey or Iran, instead of whoever may be in power in Kabul’) there is reason to expect that in spite of the official SCO refusal to countenance foreign interference, neighbouring countries might well be drawn into intra Afghan negotiations. And that might be a good thing. Maybe. The task, as it seems to me, is to stabilise the affairs of the tribal and regional leaders, keep everybody talking, while at the same time develop a national government capable of negotiating and managing the vast economic projects in the country that await pacified conditions. I imagine this will test the mettle of the new diplomatic order of Eurasia. It seems to me that one page of history has been turned and a new sheet, yet to be written, comes to view.
If the Afghans themselves are asking their neighbours to help mediate then I do not think it is interference. A simple analogy: if a couple asks their next door neighbours to mediate their dispute, are the neighbours interfering, or helping out with a request?
Whatever one thinks about the Taliban (savages, traumatised victims, psychopaths, etc) the bottom line is Afghanistan’s neighbours have to deal with them. It’s one thing to warn them of consequences for bad behaviour; it’s quite another to be part of the solution. That is why each of Afghanistan’s neighbours working together has a role to play in bringing about a solution:
*Russia & the former Soviet Union: the sledgehammer that can destroy
*China: the “sugar daddy”
*Iran & Pakistan: beneficiaries of Chinese & Russian cooperation that can testify about the results, & can appeal to Afghans on a cultural & religious level.
No doubt NATO will connive with elements in India and Turkey to terrorise the region; which is why it is crucial for Afghanistan’s neighbours to establish trust with Afghans themselves.
I live at the biggest US military base in America, Ft Hood Texas. For years I have witnessed it all. Oh, the heros thank you for your service. Today I say, what you did at Bagram was the act of a coward. Those of you that turned off the electricity and left in the middle of the night failing to inform those you called our allies are cowards of the highest order. If this is what heros do then heros are cowards.
Hey Marcus. Those who did the deed were just the proverbial “tip of the sword.” They were just “following orders” all up and down the line, which is what all of what us American cowards are doing these days by continuing to support our illegitimate empire and its killing machine. Another American once repeated and popularized the line, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for the,” and I guess it’s as true now as the day he wrote it. The phrases “What goes around comes around,” and “Instant karma is going to get you,” also come to mind here, just to name a few.
On the “plus” side, the US already has a fairly long and shameful history of such since at least the aftermath of WWII, so I guess our recent exploits could at least be judged a little bit more favorably in light of that. Small consolation that, I know, but that’s what we’re left with in the aftermath of a failed hegemonic empire experiment these days.
I think its time to point out to your heroes that the real enemy of the American people operate out of Washington not anywhere in Afghanistan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang explicitly said, “The Taliban in Afghanistan is a pivotal military and political force in the country, and will play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction there.”
And what would he have to say about Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan?
https://vigilantcitizen.com/sinistersites/sinister-sites-astana-khazakhstan/
Something very strange is going on the Asian Steppes that deserves/needs some attention?
That link is old.
Nevertheless: it’s the damn Anglo-Jews and their Khazarian mythology. Bringing Masonic symbology into the steppe. Perverting Turkic culture.
China is a land of gamblers. This is a gamble and a punt. Wait till the rabid d*g the Taliban bites the hand that tries to feed it.
Then, they have sponsors waiting in line to keep them fed and on a good payroll.Till that’s cut off, they will not come to the negotiating table with good intentions. Even better, is to delete them completely.
However, this world is a cold cold place. They will tango till the jukebox is spinning and some one’s feeding the quarters. Dance macabre.
China is a land of gamblers. This is a gamble and a punt. Wait till the rabid d*g the Taliban bites the hand that tries to feed it.
Cannot agree with this statement, because:
*All of Afghanistan’s neighbours are involved
*All of Afghanistan’s neighbours are on the same page with what’s needed: an end to terrorism & rampant drug production
Suppose Afghanistan “bites the hand” feeding it, with all of Afghanistan’s neighbours on the same page it would be fairly easy for all of them to seal their borders. With Afghanistan’s borders sealed the billionaire drug lords will not be able to access their businesses in Dubai. No need for China or Russia to invade, just completely ignore them until they change their behaviour.
Amongst other things I suspect the SCO will quietly encourage the Afghan drug lords to cut ties with the CIA and launder their previously dirty money into legitimate infrastructure, agriculture, mining, and banking businesses.
Back in the 1980s, I followed the Soviet war in Afghanistan very closely, on a day-by-day basis, through all the major US and UK media outlets. I remember how American pundits and journalists crowed that the Soviets had been “defeated” and “humiliated.” The US analysts – most of them Cold War hawks and so-called “neo-cons,” lost no opportunities in distorting facts and hyperbolizing in an effort to make the Soviets look as bad as possible.
Now look what’s happening in 2021. America, after a fruitless 20 year effort to build a state in Afghanistan, is withdrawing its army. Like the Soviets in 1989, America is abandoning a client state that will likely fall to the guerrilla opposition within a year or two. This means America is in exactly the same situation today as the USSR was in 1989.
Which superpower did worse in Afghanistan? Ironically, the answer is probably America. That’s because the US invested far more resources in Afghan state-building than did the Soviets. Way, way more. Also, the American-backed government in Kabul is likely to fall much more quickly, and more decisively, than did Najibullah’s government after the Soviets withdrew.
The US has egg on its face now, and lots of it. But will American media be as hyperbolic, untruthful, and sensationalistic in reporting the US retreat from Afghanistan as it did writing about the USSR’s withdrawal in 1989? Let’s wait and see…
As far as who did worse, there is also the not-so-minor matter of a rival superpower feeding vast quantities of quite sophisticated weapons to Islamist militants during the Soviet years.
As far as I know, nothing remotely resembling that scale of foreign assistance to the Taliban occurred during the American defeat. Did the Saudis or Pakistan (or anyone else) assist the Taliban to any significant degree?
I have read nothing to the effect that any outside power provided weaponry of any sort to the Taliban. But I get your point: just imagine what America’s position in Afghanistan would have been if the Taliban were given MANPADS.
Both superpowers took pains to avoid getting drawn into a deeper, costlier war on the ground in Afghanistan. That’s something many people don’t realize about the Soviets…that they actually restrained their military considerably in Afghanistan. But it’s very obvious that the US was far more reluctant than the Soviets to engage the guerrillas in battle. For this reason, if the Taliban had MANPADS, the US might very well have packed its bags and left Afghanistan ten or 15 years earlier.
Another interesting point is that America’s casualties and materiel losses in Afghanistan were actually reduced significantly because of Russian help. Putin gave the US permission to reinforce and resupply its forces by creating a communications route that passed through Russian and Central Asia. If not for Putin’s assistance, the US would have been compelled to use mountain passes that run from Pakistan through the Hindu Kush in southern Afghanistan. Under that scenario, the American military would have been constantly fighting battles – and absorbing casualties – by defending against Taliban ambushes in that mountain terrain.
I think the Chinese Officials should wear Traditional Dress/Garb and not those skinny European Armani suits when holding these important summits for a more cultural experience all round.
For peace in Afghanistan, it’s neither China nor China nor Pakistan, the Taliban needs to quickly put an end to Kabul.
Learn from the Viet Cong, finish the civil war for the good of the people.
China treats all nations as a partner, whereas the west doesn’t see the benefit.
https://rumble.com/vkku4w-medicinal-holocaust.html
“The Chinese might find a detour around the problem by literally buying everyone and his neighbor. But that still wouldn’t guarantee stability.”
And they’ll have to continue paying, well, forever. As the Russians and the Brits would attest, you can’t buy afghan’s loyalty, you can only rent it.
Some points in the article are valid especially dealing with the psyche of Afghans in conflict. However, the author fails to mention that it was Pakistan which established the links between the Taliban and China. The current Taliban offensive could not have been initiated without the Pakistani military. Anyone, who does not believe in this fact may be living on another planet. Moreover, PM Imran Khan is a puppet of the Pakistani military and his deceitful statements have no meaning and are made to confuse regional powers. The Pakistani elite are experts in dissimulation.
Not happening – unfortunately.
Historically, Culturally and Ethnically, odds are heavy against peace – unless Pakistan opts out, which it will never.
And then, there is the US. Let’s see what happens.