None of the actors can admit that revival of JCPOA pales compared with the real issue: Iranian missile power
by Pepe Escobar and first posted at Asia Times
Few people, apart from specialists, may have heard of the JCPOA Joint Commission. That’s the group in charge of a Sisyphean task: the attempt to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal through a series of negotiations in Vienna.
The Iranian negotiating team was back in Vienna yesterday, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Shadowplay starts with the fact the Iranians negotiate with the other members of the P+1 – Russia, China, France, UK and Germany – but not directly with the US.
That’s quite something: after all, it was the Trump administration that blew up the JCPOA. There is an American delegation in Vienna, but they only talk with the Europeans.
Shadowplay goes turbo when every Viennese coffee table knows about Tehran’s red lines: either it’s back to the original JCPOA as it was agreed in Vienna in 2015 and then ratified by the UN Security Council, or nothing.
Araghchi, mild-mannered and polite, has had to go on the record once again to stress that Tehran will leave if the talks veer towards “bullying”, time wasting or even a step-by-step ballroom dance, which is time wasting under different terminology.
Neither flat out optimistic nor pessimistic, he remains, let’s say, cautiously upbeat, at least in public: “We are not disappointed and we will do our job. Our positions are very clear and firm. The sanctions must be lifted, verified and then Iran must return to its commitments.”
So, at least in the thesis, the debate is still on. Araghchi: “There are two types of U.S. sanctions against Iran. First, categorized or so-called divisional sanctions, such as oil, banking and insurance, shipping, petrochemical, building and automobile sanctions, and second, sanctions against real and legal individuals.”
“Second” is the key issue. There’s absolutely no guarantee the US Congress will lift most or at least a significant part of these sanctions.
Everyone in Washington knows it – and the American delegation knows it.
When the Foreign Ministry in Tehran, for instance, says that 60% or 70% has been agreed upon, that’s code for lifting of divisional sanctions. When it comes to “second”, Araghchi has to be evasive: “There are complex issues in this area that we are examining”.
Now compare it with the assessment of informed Iranian insiders in Washington such as nuclear policy expert Seyed Hossein Mousavian: they’re more like pessimistic realists.
That takes into consideration the non-negotiable red lines established by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei himself. Plus non-stop pressure by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are all JCPOA-adverse.
But then there’s extra shadowplay. Israeli intel has already notified the security cabinet that a deal most certainly will be reached in Vienna. After all, the narrative of a successful deal is already being constructed as a foreign policy victory by the Biden-Harris administration – or, as cynics prefer, Obama-Biden 3.0.
Meanwhile, Iranian diplomacy remains on overdrive. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is visiting Qatar and Iraq, and has already met with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim al Thani.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, virtually at the end of his term before the June presidential elections, always goes back to the same point: no more US sanctions; Iran’s verification; then Iran will return to its “nuclear obligations”.
The Foreign Ministry has even released a quite detailed fact sheet once again stressing the need to remove “all sanctions imposed, re-imposed and re-labeled since January 20, 2017”.
The window of opportunity for a deal won’t last long. Hardliners in Tehran couldn’t care less. At least 80% of Tehran members of Parliament are now hardliners. The next President most certainly will be a hardliner. Team Rouhani’s efforts have been branded a failure since the onset of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Hardliners are already in post-JCPOA mode.
That fateful Fateh
What none of the actors in the shadowplay can admit is that the revival of the JCPOA pales compared to the real issue: the power of Iranian missiles.
In the original 2015 negotiations in Vienna – follow them in my Persian Miniatures e-book – Obama-Biden 2.0 did everything in their power to include missiles in the deal.
Every grain of sand in the Negev desert knows that Israel will go no holds barred to retain its nuclear weapon primacy in the Middle East. Via a spectacular kabuki, the fact that Israel is a nuclear power happens to remain “invisible” to most of world public opinion.
While Khamenei has issued a fatwa clearly stating that producing, stockpiling and using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear included – is haram (banned by Islam), Israel’s leadership feels free to order stunts such as the sabotage via Mossad of the (civilian) Iranian nuclear complex at Natanz.
The head of Iran’s Parliament Energy Committee, Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, even accused Washington and London of being accomplices to the sabotage of Natanz, as they arguably supplied intel to Tel Aviv.
Yet now a lone missile is literally exploding a great deal of the shadowplay.
On April 22, in the dead of night before dawn, a Syrian missile exploded only 30 km away from the ultra-sensitive Israeli nuclear reactor of Dimona. The official – and insistent – Israeli spin: this was an “errant”.
Well, not really.
Here – third video from the top – is footage of the quite significant explosion. Also significantly, Tel Aviv remained absolutely mum when it comes to offering a missile proof of ID. Was it an old Soviet 1967 SA-5? Or, rather more likely, a 2012 Iranian Fateh-110 short range surface-to-surface, manufactured in Syria as the M-600, and also possessed by Hezbollah?
A Fateh family tree can be seen in the attached chart. The inestimable Elijah Magnier has posed some very good questions about the Dimona near-hit. I complemented it with a quite enlightening discussion with physicists, with input by a military intel expert.
The Fateh-110 operates as a classic ballistic missile, until the moment the warhead starts maneuvering to evade ABM defenses. Precision is up to 10 meters, nominally 6 meters. So it hit exactly where it was supposed to hit. Israel officially confirmed that the missile was not intercepted – after a trajectory of roughly 266 km.
This opens a brand new can of worms. It implies that the performance of the much hyped and recently upgraded Iron Dome is far from stellar – and talk about an euphemism. The Fateh flew so low that Iron Dome could not identify it.
The inevitable conclusion is this was a message/warning combo. From Damascus. With a personal stamp from Bashar al-Assad, who had to clear such a sensitive missile launch. A message/warning delivered via Iranian missile technology fully available to the Axis of Resistance – proving that regional actors have serious stealth capability.
It’s crucial to remember that when Tehran dispatched a volley of deliberately older Fateh-313 versions at the US base Ayn al-Assad in Iraq, as a response to the assassination of Gen Soleimani in January 2020, the American radars went blank.
Iranian missile technology as top strategic deterrence. Now that’s the shadowplay that turns Vienna into a sideshow.
I think that the Vienna talks are important for political-diplomatic reasons. A deal is very unlikely. But the question is: who has the initiative? The Biden government thought that the initiative is on his side. They have the illusion that is is enough to say „we are back“ in order to direct the world. China and Russia have already made clear that the USA/the West do not longer direct the world and that it is not sufficient for the West to have a big mouth. Now, it is Iran’s turn to show the same.
I would say that the main aim of Iran at these Vienna talks is to demonstrate the helplessness of the USA. Iran is in a strong position and has probably coordinated with Russia and China. USA/the West are way too unrealistic, and they will only understand what is happening when it is too late.
Pepe, you mention in passing the fact that the biggest impediment to the USA reinstating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is not Biden’s impossible task of putting Humpty Dumpty back together again in Geneva, but the simple fact that ReTrumplicans in the US Senate will never ever accept a nuclear deal with Iran as it violates rule number one in US politics, Israel would never allow it.
Trump was totally beholden to Likudniks and US Zionists, mostly Christian, from day one of his presidency. The only reason he killed the JCPOA in the first place was to appease Mr. Moneybags, Sheldon Adelson. That, and moving the US embassy to Jerusalem were on his do-list in return for the “thirty pieces of silver” Adelson threw at him in 2016. Trumpsters on this site have to remember that Trump was never about MAGA. He was always about MIGA, Make Israel Greater Again.
Not only Republicans.
All are beholden to Israel. Pelosi has stated that Israel comes first.
Maybe it’s time to give up the “ReTrumplicans” nonsense now and start to live in the present?
Katherine
It’s hardly “nonsense” to point out that there’s a qualitative difference between AIPAC and Likud, Katherine. Yes, Democrats are beholden to AIPAC, but Trump surrounded himself with Likudniks and Christian Zionists, like Pence and Pompeo. That led to the US pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran and the murder of General Soleimani. They would have eventually attacked Iran like the Christian Zionists wanted them to, as that nation and Russia figure into their crazy end-times eschatology.
The little dance that Democrats have to do to appease AIPAC is nothing remotely like the check-to-check dirty dance with Netanyahu that Trump engaged in. But, I will give you this, Katherine, Trump is a much better golfer than Biden is.
War has changed. Missiles and drones have changed Force Structures. These are standoff weapons. Combined with missile defenses and EW capabilities, the only remaining differential is nuclear warheads.
Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Russia today agains asserted that they will not allow Iran (or any other nation) to join the nine nations with nukes. However, Russia offers military assistance and protection to Iran if she needs it.
So. we return to the arrow in Iran’s quiver that is changing the dynamic geopolitical arrangement in the ME–Iranian missiles, and their availability to Houthis, Syria and Hezbollah, and probably, Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria.
Iran will win these diplomatic negotiations because Iran has strengths that Israel and other enemies of Iran cannot cope with.
It’s not ideology that triumphs or at least trumps the adversary. It’s technology–missiles in the case of Iran.
(For Russia its a bigger task, and they have bigger technologies–hypersonic missiles, S400, S500 missile defense, leading edge, incomparable EW and radars, and silent diesel-electric submarines.)
Iran will not have nuclear weapons not because Russia will not allow it but because as it has been stated times without number, Islamic ideal which Iran stands for does not allow for such weapons.
When Saddam was raining chemical weapons supplied by the West on Iranian cities during the 8 years brutal war, with Iran virtually standing alone against the combined support of both Eastern and Western powers for Iraq, Imam Khomeini was adamantly opposed to use of chemical weapons to retaliate against Iraq and was in a dire straits compared to her position today. There are numerous literature on this for those interested in reading further about this. This policy I still being maintained by his successor Imam Khamenei.
If Russia wants to stop Iran how does it propose to do it? Impose economic siege on Iran? While Russia doesn’t possess such economic clout, the US with her mammoth economic power have been doing that for more than 4 decades without any achievement. It can cooperate with the US to do this? That had already been done at UNSC between 2010-13 without no result as Obama finally decided to negotiate the JCPOA.
Probably invade Iran? The reality is that even during Soviet era Russia couldn’t hold down the Afghan mujahedeen, I recognized they were supported by the CIA. Now think of what will happen if Russia invade Iran, qualitatively and quantitatively Russia surpass Iran both in conventional and non conventional weapons, but have no doubt Russia would walk into a quagmire she’d only walkout of in shame even if it takes 100 years.
I have no doubt that Russia have no such plans against Iran, but please let dissuade ourselves of the notion of Russia dictating to Iran on any policy Iran consider vital to her national interest. History have seen few destructive imperial nation the likes of the US, if the Islamic Iran doesn’t raise the white flag in front of the US, it will never raise it in front of any nation.
Houthi missiles are homemade. To say otherwise is old fashioned western under estimation.
Iran will not have a nuclear missile arsenal for other reason than the Supreme leader Khamenie has banned weapons of mass destruction. There is a fatwa against them by an assembly of top learned clerics in Iran. But I presume that if Iran is hit by weapons of mass destruction, all bets are off. Because in Islam, Muslims are told, through guidelines of war, to only fight back, and with the same force one is hit with. And when enemy resists, one resists.
China has Iran’s back more than Russia, as Russia has a Zionist 5th column that is somewhat active. Iran gets everything it needs from China, this it really doesn’t need to take these negotiations seriously. The rail lines between China and Iran run 24-7, 365.
People just don’t seem to understand how much China is already involved in the Middle-East, as far as weapons flow, training, logistics, etc. The Chinese were even involved in Libya last year.
After last Thursdays launch of the space capsule for the manned Chinese Space Station, President Xi congratulated the Chinese nation and actually said in his address ” one satellite, two bombs ” , you better believe they are gearing up, and a big part of their plans ate allies like the axis of resistance.
“Every grain of sand in the Negev desert knows…..”
I admit I always enjoy Pepe’s masterful wordsmithing and keen insights.
Thank you Pepe, you are a rare voice of reason in an increasingly deluded and insane world.
After the horrors of WW2, the birth of the United Nations Organisation offered such hope, such promise, that the worst was over, that a new dawn, a new golden age could commence. Alas, such hopes were soon dashed on the rocks of greed and ruthless ambition. The candle of hope still flickers faintly, but it is surrounded by such world-ending capabilities that there are no guarantees any of us can assure our species of a future worth having.
Perhaps the human race is simply not ready, it is perhaps too close to its barbaric state, still a “Type Zero” civilisation, as Michio Kaku puts it.
I often wonder if one could skip ahead (by virtue of a time machine) some 10,000 years and see how Earth looks. Would we discover, in horror, like Charlton Heston’s character Taylor in Planet of the Apes, that “they really did it, they went ahead and did it!” as he saw the remnants of the Statue of Liberty, following the nuclear devastation.
Or (hopefully) we find that our species pulled back from the brink, and realised the best of humanity.
As we observe the lies, propaganda, struggles for power, watching the “Axis of Resistance” slowly rise from disunity and difference, and start to offer an alternative to the world view offered and indeed demanded by the Global Financial-Vampire Squid, we see a clear choice: master serf feudalism, or mutual respect among free nations.
Let the flickering candle become a true beacon.
To Weary Traveller
As you have rightly said, humanity indeed has a choice. And that choice is to stop being willfully ignorant and also lazy to take the most desperately needed action – PROTEST! Taking such step, combined with denial them their power and control is the only way to fight and to survive as humanity. We, as global human family, need to rid ourselves and this our beautiful world-our only home, of this cancerous parasite, that which has taken over and has brough in this present state that we are now seeing. It is an extremeny dangerous, extinction level state. If we don’t, we are doomed..
This parasite cannot create, it can only destroy. It feeds on human suffering and blood.
World needs “Exterminator” for the most vile of these parasitic specimens, the rest – back into ghettos where they were kept for centures before, with a very good reason. And use that as an educational “zoo” for future generations to never repeat the stupidity of letting them out again!
Thanks Katerina. While I agree with your sentiments, I think protests are impotent displays, simply ignored or else violently suppressed by the establishment. Nothing less than a serious revolution would be effective. Is the current effeminate and brain-dead proletariat capable of such an act? Pigs will be zooming twixt the trees before that happens.
As often happens, it is only when people have lost everything that they finally emerge from their stupor and awaken to their plight. That day is surely coming but it is still a long way off.
” I think protests are impotent displays, simply ignored or else violently suppressed by the establishment.”
The opponents’ have different interpretations including but not limited to:
1. Protests are indicators of the continuing immersion of protestors in acceptable “challenges” as defined by the opponents.
2. The opponents resort to oscillating within the linear spectrum of ignoring/suppresion in the hope of limiting the protestors to protesting for opponents to regognise their “human rights” to protest which never existed.
3. The protestors are protesting for the continuance of the actions and notions which enmaze them.
A component part of why “The collective West is living in fantasy land” of blogs and shadowplays including the Vienna shadowplay.
A great commentary Weary Traveler, Thank you!
“the birth of the United Nations Organization offered such hope, such promise, that the worst was over, that a new dawn, a new golden age could commence. Alas, such hopes were soon dashed on the rocks of greed and ruthless ambition.” (weary Traveler)
The seemingly possible but ultimately ‘irrational’ Hope wasn’t dashed on the rocks of greed and ruthless ambition, it was dashed on the ‘immutable’ rock of Human Nature, Michio Kaku alludes to this in his reference to Type Zero civilization, it has always been type Zero because it has always been Man’s Civilization and it will be until it is over.
Lucy the prototype of Humans on display at the British Museum is credited as having walked on the Earth slightly less than three million years ago, Things have changed a lot in many ways since then, the World, as humans experience it, has surely gotten much smaller and Humans, being the clever adaptive creatures we are, have developed some great new toys to play with as we exercise our ‘inate’ urge to crush our Challengers and expand our territory!
Another way of stating things might be to say; Mankind is getting old, Mankind and the World it lives on are irreversibly linked, they are the same thing, the physical Man is made from the elements of the Earth, the Sea runs through His veins, The Physical Man is growing tired and His mind is filling with delusions of Grandeur, ( Delusions that perhaps were tolerable and enjoyable in times past, but can to-day’s reality support them?) and the Earth that supports him is also growing tired, the difference between them is; The Man is but a passing creature living on the Earth’s surface who must inevitable, join the creatures that preceded Him! The Earth will remain and the World the Man leaves will be a Paradise for the creatures that follow him!
I have a friend who owns a Mortuary and he tells me that rich or poor we all look the same when we are laying naked on the Porcelain slab with our tongues hanging out, I could go and see for myself, but I prefer not to.
Humans are delusional in direct proportion to the props they have to support their delusions, if you have enough props to imagine enslaving Mankind and Ruling the World included in your props is a birth into great privilege and a retinue of sycophants, who derive their power and prestige, from your delusions, so it is their job to help you sustain them!
How long can it last? I have no idea!
To John Russell
Yours is a very cold, cynical, darwinistic approach to humanity. It is a magnitute times more than what you are portraying it to be. We are not just creatures. We have been truly blessed with having a soul, with having consiousness, thought, imagination, inventiveness, with ability for greatest love and greatest sacrifice – that is what makes us human. Yes, we are in the scheme of things, but for a fleeting moment on this Earth, but what we leave behind is a tremendous legacy of the most beautiful creations that is all around us, music, literature, inventions, ideas, all that future generations can enjoy, use and take forward. And Mankind CAN live without wars, without the “inate” urge to crush challenges and expand the territory”. We are in the 21st Century, but what we also had for the past few is the most destructive parasite amongst us – do refer to my prior comment. This is the biggest challenge we are facing right now.
“We have […] a soul.” The emperor has new clothes.
We will be more reasonable when we admit our fancy invisible accoutrements deceive none so blindly as ourselves.
And with a spectacular failure, it’s back to every man for him/her self.
Mankind has forgotten, if it ever payed attention to, the words of the Word:
” Heaven and earth shall pass away, but my words shall not pass away. 36 But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only. 37 But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. 38 For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, 39 And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. 40 Then shall two be in the field; the one shall be taken, and the other left. 41 Two women shall be grinding at the mill; the one shall be taken, and the other left. 42 Watch therefore: for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come. 43 But know this, that if the goodman of the house had known in what watch the thief would come, he would have watched, and would not have suffered his house to be broken up. 44 Therefore be ye also ready: for in such an hour as ye think not the Son of man cometh. 45 Who then is a faithful and wise servant, whom his lord hath made ruler over his household, to give them meat in due season? 46 Blessed is that servant, whom his lord when he cometh shall find so doing. 47 Verily I say unto you, That he shall make him ruler over all his goods. 48 But and if that evil servant shall say in his heart, My lord delayeth his coming; 49 And shall begin to smite his fellowservants, and to eat and drink with the drunken; 50 The lord of that servant shall come in a day when he looketh not for him, and in an hour that he is not aware of, 51 And shall cut him asunder, and appoint him his portion with the hypocrites: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth”.
”My kingdom is not of this world: if my kingdom were of this world, then would my servants fight, that I should not be delivered to the Jews: but now is my kingdom not from hence”.
Hows what you cut and paste here have to do with ‘The Vienna shadowplay’ – the topic of discussion here?
It was just a reminder that the Earth will pass away and that all the theories built on the idea of Earth (and ‘Mankind’) eternity are illusions.
“A serious and good philosophical work could be written consisting entirely of jokes.”
Revered philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein b otd 1889:
John, do not despair, “mankind” is still young, only 4 Million years of evolution in a great and marvellous world. Our beautiful world, as Katerina says. Keep right on to the end — which is not yet. Hope is the fuel that drives the human psyche; Faith, Hope and Charity.
“In my Father’s house are many mansions”
“There is a huge fire which burns up the dead wood”
All the world’s glorious works of art, music, architecture, painting, they have all arisen through a vision of the wonder and beauty of the eternal human spirit laid against the invisible background of evil and evil’s shadow.
Sentimentality and wishful thinking are not able to enter the domain of this living experience of the artist, who lifts himself, or herself, up through blood, sweat and tears to the divine, in order to share and encourage others that it exists, even in the horror of the worst of times.
Now is the time to approach these great works, to practice engraving them in memory, that they can be recalled and brought to lift in inner experience and their full reality.
“Perhaps the human race is simply not ready”
Psychopaths float to the top and democracy leaves them there.
”On April 22, in the dead of night before dawn, a Syrian missile exploded only 30 km away from the ultra-sensitive Israeli nuclear reactor of Dimona. The official – and insistent – Israeli spin: this was an ’errant’ ”
Strange coming from the Zionist Entity proper, actually. I thought their official narrative (no matter what) was This was a heinous act of anti-Semitism. Fork out the money, goyim, or else…!.
Well, big congratulations to Syria and Iran. They know they are dealing with supreme cowards and utter degenerates and what it takes to ”hurt their emotions”.
”On April 22, in the dead of night before dawn, a Syrian missile exploded only 30 km away from the ultra-sensitive Israeli nuclear reactor of Dimona. The official – and insistent – Israeli spin: this was an ’errant’ ”
The effect & message would have been 100 times bigger if the Reactor had been the target. What response would have come from Israel ? Perhaps very little -knowing that the same accuracy could be used to cause max damage in any Isralei City. I look forward to seeing some revenge !
”The window of opportunity for a deal won’t last long. Hardliners in Tehran couldn’t care less. At least 80% of Tehran members of Parliament are now hardliners. The next President most certainly will be a hardliner. Team Rouhani’s efforts have been branded a failure since the onset of Trump’s ’maximum pressure’ campaign. Hardliners are already in post-JCPOA mode.”
Excellent news indeed. While we’re at it, may I introduce the following, somewhat impertinent, interpretation:
Just Crappy Policies Of America
Such garbage should be dispensed with ASAP. Iran is on the right track.
Ironic, isn’t it? While Uncle Schmuel continues to fret and fume over nuclear capability issues like the geriatric old fool with both feet still firmly planted in the 20th century it’s become, Iran and the ‘Now Apparently Ready for Prime Time Resistance Players’ turn to practical weapons technologies that dramatically shift the balance of power in the vital ME oil producing region. Oh my! Do we have another 70’s era “missile gap” looming, this time due to rampant corruption and malfeasance within the US MIC grifter mill? Don’t look now, but the poor old hegemon’s getting on in years and has lost a step (or two, or three!). The old boy’s been known to get more than a little belligerent when he gets confused as well, so sedation and restraints might even be called for before he gets put out to pasture for good.
Don’t forget, the Zionist Samson Option isn’t about nukes delivered by missles. Insiders claim that those nukes are already in place in Israeli embassies all over Europe. That’s what makes Zionism a death cult, the AngloZionist Empire will not go quietly into that dark night like empires of the past, but will take the rest of humanity with it.
Just recognize Israel’s right to exist, freeze their boundary as is (they still don’t have Jerusalem to themselves) and move on. This quagmire is solely kept alive so they can keep grabbing more and more in the name of war or some uncertainty.
Once recognized Lebanon will not surrender any more area, Jordan will have a safe border and Palestinians will have what’s left. They have the whole of ME as their backyard.
If the ME wants peace and prosperity it has to eventually do this. Take the air out of this baloon and see who the real war mongers are.
& the golan? sheba farms? what map are you looking @, the one giving all the stolen land for keeps?
Hi, Marfa. In 2002 the Saudis in the name of the Arab League (22 Arab countries) proposed a peace deal, with recognition of the State of Israel in their actual borders & the acceptance by Israel of a two-state solution for the Palestinians. Israel didn´t even respond. Greater Israel is the Zionist aim. But first, they want to diminish the resistance of all things surrounding them, politically, economically, socially, culturally, sort of human “desertification” in order to have the effort facilitated for the land extension for the coming generations.
And Ehud Barak with the Norway peace accord agreed to settle boundaries. Arafat said no. Then came the right wingers Ariel and Benny. That window closed for good after that.
Israel has no right to exist on stolen land this is the core issue. Iran, Russia and China must insist that Israel’s weapons of mass destruction are also removed in any negotiation for peace in the ME, this is the only rational starting point and the only way to achieve long term peace, other than an end time war. I doubt new missile strength and development will curb Zionist war mongering, hopefully they will come to their senses but the fact is they are a death cult and a threat to all humanity. The new stronger stance from the axis of resistance needs the disarmament of Israel to become a red line issue for world security Iran is not the threat.
We really need another mandate.
A mandate for Israel, for it to be monitored and governed by international nannies until it shows itself able to share the sandbox and give up its land-grabbing tantrums.
Mandate Israel. I like the way that sounds . . .
Katherine
I like “precision strike, then invade and free Occupied Palestine” better. That sounds better.
Nope, kick them out of there with violence if necessary and give them a piece of the land of the country also called ‘The Plantation’ that has been pimping Israhell in order to please their masters in the city. I was thinking of a chunk of desert in Texas somewhere near the sea. They’ll feel right at home…
Iran has a right to self-defense. These missiles must remain non-negotiable. Since Iran is being treated as if they have nuclear weapons, they should enrich a small amount of uranium to 90% and export it to either Russia or China as a final escalation. This will deprive the U.S. of having its cake and eating it too.
Problem is, Uncle Shmuel’s Samson Option isn’t based on nukes delivered by missiles, but by nukes already pre-placed in Israeli embassies all around the globe. That’s why Zionism is a death cult, always has been, always will be.
So as military and economic power of USA is shrinking Israel’s just follows ,
being extension of the Empire . Iran’s power is increasing and Iranian missiles
can reach Israeli nuclear power plant .
To Israel : Better start thinking about way of coexistence , not about destruction of
all enemies .
3 great religions of the world and their civilisations are finally pushed together to confront the devil.
If we are not annihilated from the get go, this could be entertaining.
and the way israel has been warned by the axis of resistance that dimona plant is the best choice to hit for retaliation, drives the zionists to pressurize even more on washington to put iran’s missile capability inside the negotiation tray. the us must have realized earlier when they were hit with missiles in iraq and their drone falling from the sky that indeed, iran’s missile technology cannot be ignored.
Very interesting, as always. The negotiations, almost underwater, are subsiding because the real issue is elsewhere. Conventional capabilities are driving things, not nukes. This is the thrust of Andrei Martyanov’s argument, the revolution in military affairs. It seems to me that the revolution in military affairs is in sync with a revolution in political affairs, with significant geopolitical consequences. Recall Clausewitz. My hunch (hopefully this will elicit informed commentary on the part of those who know better than I) is that a rearmed high tech Russia, has quietly disseminated it’s advanced missile technology to Iran, the deal being to prevent nuke proliferation while enabling Iran to effective defend itself against the empire, and more. The more is what is most interesting. Technology possessed by Iran soon finds its way to Hezbollah, Syria, and Yemen. Israel is under serious threat from a non state actor, roughly, in neighbouring Lebanon, a threat greater than Iran itself. The threat is real because the missile technology is formidable and able to circumvent the highly touted ‘Iron Dome’. The Israeli’s have just been delivered a message (from Syria). Want security? Talk to Lavrov. Of course, I’m speculating here. Russian diplomacy is very, very clear that they seek political resolutions to all of the strife burdened states of Asia and elsewhere. That includes both the Persian Gulf and Israel/Palestine and it’s neighbours. This is a strategy and is intelligible as the exact opposite of the empire’s divide and rule policy of stirring up ethnic and sectarian hostilities to maintain decisive power. I believe that the foreign policy establishment in the Kremlin has decided to empower Iran and it’s regional allies to achieve strategic parity with Israel, not to mention the Gulf monarchies, as a way of forcing these dogs of war to the negotiating table. And it’s working. Consider how Bibi travelled to Moscow, how many times, back in 18? As well, we hear noises from the Gulf monarchies indicative of an interest in buying Russian weapons. Long story short: Moscow is the new security fixer in Asia. Want security? Talk to Lavrov. The Vienna negotiations mirror the increasingly divided views within the Beltway as to America’s commitment to Israel. Increasingly, division characterises everything about the West, not excluding Israel. American protection in the Middle East is no longer the sure thing that it was till fairly recently. Want security? ..
Won’t talk to Lavrov?
Talk to Shoygu
i agree fully, i too have been suspecting the same & as events unfold it seems to be true. i imagine china is aware, approves & aids.
Kevin, buddy.
You don’t pay extra to use paragraphs here.
@Kevin Frost: “high tech Russia, has quietly disseminated it’s advanced missile technology to Iran”
Puhleeze! Do you think the Islamic Communist Revolution has been sitting on its hands the last 50 years? In the early 1970s Iran invited my esteemed colleague, Prof.Guido Pontecorvo and other scientists to review Iranian science policy. Guido told me “they have some good people and their money bought good equipment, but they lack technicians”. He advised the Iranians to educate more technologists.
Guido’s advice seems to have paid off. His brother, Bruno Pontecorvo, gave Soviet Russia enough atomic info to break the Anglo Zionazi Capitalist monopoly on nuclear weapons. Two black eyes to Uncle $cam from the two Pontecorvo brothers.
The hottest news in ME is that the demand for diapers by settler sionists has skyrocketed since yesterday.
This news report from Russia mentions the use of Russian EW tech jamming the Iron Dome signals, rendering the incoming missile invisible to it.
https://news–r-ru.turbopages.org/news-r.ru/s/news/politics/507811/
If true, an effective defence of Dimona may be non-existent. Additionally, it seems this would most certainly have occurred with Assad giving his blessing to a serious warning to Israel that its days of firing into Syria with impunity are over. Does anyone amongst the Commentariat here have any confirmatory news on this?
MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction probably the only thing to really save the Middle East. By the way didn’t the Germans sell the Israeli’s 4 submarines?
My understanding is they were gifts.
Yes, a small part compensation for killing millions of Jews, the Germans gave Israel the means to kill tens of millions of Gentiles.
Thanks for this Pepe. You never fail to inform and educate your readers.
What none of the actors in the shadowplay can admit is that the revival of the JCPOA pales compared to the real issue: the power of Iranian missiles.
Yes, we got hints that there was something more on the menu at the JCPOA table than just nuclear weapons when the US started insisting on including Iranian missiles in the discussions.
The Israelis can spin the incident all they want but the fact remains that a missile from Syria flew more than 250 km and impacted near Dimona. Presumably the secrecy-shrouded nuclear research facility that works on nuclear material for Israeli WMDs is well protected by layers of air defence including the much touted Iron Dome, which presumably must have detected the ‘errant’ flying object but was unable to destroy it mid-flight or shoot it down.
That is the crux of the matter — the missile got through.
Prof Theodore Postol, the missile expert from MIT who poured cold water on allegations of Syrian government chemical attacks on Khan Sheikhoun, was sceptical of the efficacy of ID and wrote about it some time ago, in effect saying that Iron Dome had some rather large holes in it.
Bottomline: Israel’s sense of invincibility — and with it, its impunity — is about to disappear. Saying they are rattled is an understatement. The flurry of activities including face-to-face meetings between US and Israeli officials in the time of Covid is testament to that.
Thank God for small mercies.
Prof Postol:
https://thebulletin.org/2014/07/the-evidence-that-shows-iron-dome-is-not-working/
Rats scurrying:
https://sputniknews.com/military/202104271082744455-us-israel-agree-to-create-working-group-to-counter-iranian-drones-missiles/
You don’t need nuclear weapons to inflict lasting damage, it’s more of a shock and awe fast kill weapon when used. Fukushima has proven that a nuclear radioactive fallout is much more devastating, albeit a slow kill with unavoidable collateral damage.
To deny Israel its land, all Iran has to do is rain radioactive bombs/missiles all across it or hit an Israeli nuclear site. I’m sure someone out there figured out the most effective radioactive element(s) to include in a radioactive bomb. Ironically, Israel does a similar thing to the Palestinian by poisoning their farmlands with glyphosate etc. So, they can’t complain if others use the same tactics against them.
Imo, all this focus on nuclear (bomb) primacy is more or less a pointless exercise for Israel and its slave colonies. Israel’s relatively small area makes it very vulnerable to other mass weapon types, not just a hard nuclear weapons. There will always be collateral damage for either, the point is moot.
P.S. On a tangent, Neom, if it ever becomes a reality is more of an Israeli proxy project rather than a Saudi delusional effort to slight Iran. By not choosing the Persian Gulf area, the Saudis also virtually ignored its entire Arab neighbors who could have benefited from it, especially Dubai with its proximity. In terms of human capital, the surrounding Egypt and Jordan will compete against Israel in a high tech setting. Guess who has the better capability and thus benefits more? One has to wonder who originated this foolhardy plan and put it into MBS’s head.
@Sturm
What you suggest is basically “haram” method to do “eye for an eye”.
@Blackring
Not a problem. Just do the deed and ask forgiveness later.
Allah is ever forgiving.
I have long wondered about that nuclear vulnerability of Israel, doing exactly that, missiles aimed at their civilian reactors, which would make Israel not a very pleasant place to live anymore and likely lead to a large emigration. However the limiting factor, I always imagined, was that it would just be too close to surrounding areas inhabited by allies in Lebanon and Palestine and etc., so I don’t know what the calculation is regarding all that. However, obviously Iran does not need nuclear weapons to provide Israel with it’s own radioactive hollocaust.
@Aur
It is even worse than that! If Russians sold S300 to Iran back then, Iranians wouldn’ have to develop their own missille tech.
And even, even worse thay shared it with those pesky Houthis.
Sorry I comment only on your first statements, you lost me on “…usa would not have ramped up attack on Iran.”
More chatter today about SWIFT disconnect of Rus. Will Hormuz be blocked? Maybe there are less drastic options.
It seems that some in the EU want to cut off Russian gas in addition to SWIFT.
(https://sputniknews.com/business/202104281082751326-brussels-wants-swift-shut-off-halt-to-russian-energy-purchases-if-aggression-in-ukraine-continues/)
Its like dealing with a threat by committing (economic) suicide. I wish them luck!
After all those expulsions of diplomats, it’s only natural that diplomacy has to be done by other means of comunication.
No more diplomatic mail or meetings, now you send message by missile.
Seriously… IMHO, 30km off the “target” from <300km is way too much. Israelis do not waste ammo on incoming missiles that won't hit anything significant.
For years, since Palestinians depleted their supply with endless 50$ rocket barrages.
Anyway, message was definitely sent, with propper diplomatic measure.
What will be the answer is yet to be seen.
Yep keep the West busy talking JCPOA…. why should Iran care with having the missiles AND China !!!!
The very simple result of the pretty little demonstration of Iranian ability occurs in the minds of those people who make Israeli Policy.
They realize that they themselves are in rifle sights, personally. Right now, today.
Essentially the aggressor party, in this case, is at gunpoint, dirty Harry style gunpoint.
I assure everyone that being at gunpoint creates great focus, and in cowards, an overwhelming emotion that makes them nuts, and liable to do highly irresponsible things.
Iran can hit the boss’ car in the parking lot, just at noon. That must be a terrible realization, and after all that hard work too, I mean all the work needed to make those shiny plutonium spheres…which are obviously now useless.
“Always give your enemy an avenue of retreat” Sunzi
Never corner a mad dog!
Therefore, it is correct for Iran to maintain at least a facade of soft diplomacy re: JCPOA. Even if the hardline sentiment is dominant.
There is a further angle to Iranian missiles that is motivating a big worry in Tel Aviv. Hassan Nasrulah said that Hizbollah has 320,000 missiles, some percentage precision. The Israelis may not even able to invade Lebanon this time; as well as Hizbollah, Syria & Shia militias of Iraq are likely to be in the fight. I’ve been saying for a while that Israel is probably over, shortly after the first salvo of missiles hits Tel Aviv; everyone who can leave, will. That will leave the poor & the crazy settlers…