by Mansoureh Tajik for The Saker Blog
Bismillah-ir-Rahman-ir-Rahim, “In the Name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
Novel Corona virus, nicknamed 2019-nCoV, is the latest global celebrity puffed up and propped to exact fear in some, to divert attention from others, to settle a few economic and political scores among adversaries, and to make a few bucks selling diverse prophylaxes along the way. Mainstream and alternative media, social network bazaars, and idea salesmen, too, have been busy haggling and peddling creative theories and analyses from varieties of angles that deal with this latest celebrity. The vendees, as well, have had their own colorful twists and takes to contribute. One wonders how much more currency could be milked out of a tiny nucleotide during whatever time is left of this winter season. Not much, I suppose. Spring and summer have their own fashions and trends.
Meanwhile, it is a good habit to remind ourselves of important truths and core values even if the excuse is nothing but a minuscule virus. I would like to use the essay before you as a reminder of some things that are paramount to life on this earth by discussing two different aspects of this “pathogenoid”, or “weaponoid”, or “whatever-elseoid” anyone prefers to label that is commensurate with his/her already established mindset. The first aspect is the biological, individual and public health components of the narratives surrounding the virus (and others like it), and the second is the psycho-social and political aspects related to Iran and the Iranian people.
First the biological and health aspect. In general, all living and non-living agents, be they natural or anthropogenic in origin, must be able to interact biologically with human body systems in order to have the potential to produce diseases and be classified as toxins and/or pathogens. In addition, the right internal conditions (inside human body systems) and external conditions (environment) must be provided for long enough time duration for those toxins and pathogens to produce diseases and/or biological death.
With that framework in mind, let us put nCoV and its colleagues in their proper and reasonable place. The most complex, the deadliest, and the scariest pathogens that are created by human beings anytime and anywhere on earth as bioweapons or as anything else are not, cannot be, and will never be anything but clumsy, crude, synthetic, and cheap imitations of what exists already in an all-encompassing natural/biological systems. Full stop. Therefore, neither our current celebrity virus, nCoV, nor any other fabricated and engineered pathogen for that matter, can enjoy an exceptionally more perilous status than what is allowed by laws of nature. By the same token, human beings, as part of this natural biological system, are already endowed with numerous and diverse natural defense mechanisms to deal with whatever potentially novel and/or antiquated pathogenic agents are thrown at them both at the individual level and the population level until whenever.
For those of us who genuinely believe in God that whenever is ultimately and in truth rooted in the fact that God Almighty, our Creator, has created us and these natural systems in a purposeful and rather fool-proof way for a specific period of time until I-Sa’ata, the Hour. [1] For others into whose calculus God’s Will and plan for humanity do not enter, I present examples of scientific evidence as mental toys with which they could play until whenever.
nCoV is an influenza virus. Like all viruses, it is not a living being and does not have the cellular structure to survive and propagate. It needs specific bacteria or live human and/or animal cells into which to inject its genetic material and in essences hijack them to replicate itself and propagate. On most surfaces, coronaviruses can maintain their infectivity from 2 hours to 9 days[2] depending on temperature and relative humidity of the environment, surface type, and other factors. These viruses are single-stranded RNA (ssRNA) type and are the type most vulnerable to sunlight. Exposure to direct sunlight (depending on location and duration) could effectively cause structural and functional inactivation of these viruses in a relatively short period of time and render them harmless and/or induce dramatic reduction in their infectivity or harmfulness.[3,4,5,6]
Here, I would like to open a paragraph-long parenthesis and remind people of some key points that might be useful as good health practices anyway. Sit, walk, play, pray, work, type, eat, and rest under the sunlight wherever you are and whatever the season to harvest the benefits of sun.[7] It is the best natural viricide free and available to rich and poor. Basic hygiene, proper and adequate hand washing habits are good. However, excessive hand washing and use of chemical disinfectants and antiseptic solutions are not healthy (unless you are in a hospital operating room). Doing so strips the skin from its natural flora and good bacteria that actually fight harmful viruses and other pathogens and one might end up with a host of chronic skin disorders. Also, these chemicals get into the wastewater systems and come right back to our breakfast, lunch, and dinner tables through water and food cycles. Reduced and regulated hand-to-mouth movements (i.e. refraining from non-stop munching and drinking in between main meals) are both a good health habit and a good preventive measure. Strengthening the immune system, anti-inflammatory nutrition, and healthy lifestyle are extremely helpful in warding off viral infections and acquiring immunity. As for the rest, do your best and put yourself in God’s Hand and do not worry too much. When your time is up, your time is up. For those who do not believe in God, put yourselves in all else’s hand and hope that a few more miles is still left in that which you call <i>me.</i> Close parenthesis.
In terms of epidemic dangers of nCoV and to put it in a proper perspective, it would be helpful to look at some general statistics for other influenza epidemics first. According to US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there have been from 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations due to seasonal influenza and from 12,000 to 61,000 deaths each year since 2010.”[8] A quick calculation of fatalities based on deaths over number of hospital admissions due to seasonal influenza yields the following results from 2010 to 2018:
2010-2011 – 37,000 deaths/290,000 hospitalized >12.8%
2011-2012 – 12,000 deaths/140,000 hospitalized > 8.8%
2012-2013 – 43,000 deaths/570,000 hospitalized >7.5%
2013-2014 – 38,000 deaths/350,000 hospitalized >10.9%
2014-2015 – 51,000 deaths/590,000 hospitalized >8.6%
2015-2016 – 23,000 deaths/280,000 hospitalized >8.2%
2016-2017 – 38,000 deaths/497,000 hospitalized >7.6%
2017-2018 – 61,000 deaths/810,000 hospitalized >7.5%
(Note: Use of hospital admissions as denominators are better than estimated total number of people contracting the flu. One reason is that the former provides a more accurate and systematic estimate of morbidity and mortality but the latter relies on estimates and extrapolations using indirect data, surrogates, proxies, recall methods, and more for data collection.)
A systematic and comprehensive worldwide and/or country-based data collection, analysis, and publication regarding nCoV-2019 cases does not exist so that we could have a solid comparison with annual seasonal flu mortality rates in the US and elsewhere. However, searching reliable publications that are made available online so far, we could get some sense for a reasonable range for mortality rates reported for this virus. Case fatality rates range from 2.08% (362 deaths out of 17,391 confirmed cases reported to WHO)[9], to 3.36% reported by the Chinese government and 4.3% reported for severe cases. These rates are still much lower than that of another two widely contagious zoonotic coronavirus diseases, SARS (with 9.6% infection mortality rate) and MERS (with 35% infection mortality rate).[10,11]
In Iran, the latest report from the Center for Public Relation of the Ministry of Health, by noon on Saturday, Feb. 29, there were 593 confirmed cases of which 43 had died.[12] This put the rate at about 7.3% mortality. On Sunday, the number of confirmed cases 978 and the number of dead were at 54[13] (5.5%). Both these rates appear to be much higher than any other rates reported anywhere else in the world. There is no valid evidence showing why the mortality rate for the Iranian population would be so different with the global rate. I suspect the number of deaths reported for nCoV in Iran is an overestimation. My suspicion is based on public proclamations by some ministry of health officials and informal statements made by specific hospital staff. For example, one hospital (in Qom) in particular (based on personal communication) prepared its first few death reports based on high probability and suspicion of nCoV infection rather than definitive diagnoses two days after the patients had died and prior to any confirmed Corona cases in Iran.
Ali Rabi’ee, the spokesperson for the government, in a note clarifying issues related to the closure of various schools and universities also responded to questions regarding statistical discrepancies that exist between Iran’s and global mortality rates as follows: “The denominator for Iran does not include cases who contracted the virus but were not in critical condition.” And regarding conflicting reports by one of the members of the parliament, he said, “He was stating the total number of deaths that included non-corona related deaths as well.”[14]
As the nCoV kits produced in Iran increase, the kits arriving from China get distributed widely, and the quality control of tests and reports become more systematic and accurate, then we could take another look at the rates and get a more realistic and correct assessment of definitive cases and mortality rates for Iran.
Nevertheless, based on the information we have so far, both locally and globally, about the infectivity and mortality rates associated with this virus, it just seems the response to the threats and dangers of this virus is disproportionately above and beyond what this epidemic warrants. It is not difficult to see why the US and the West are inflating this epidemic and maximally exploiting it but China’s and Iran’s internal measures and responses seem oddly over-exaggerated and disproportionate. That is unless they have used this as a drill, or a practice run, for a sudden hazard response at nation-wide population level in order to prepare for a much greater biological hazard they are anticipating to come. This is just a guess and I have no evidence to support it.
In terms of response, multiple measures are taken in Iran. All universities and schools are closed and television channels are conducting video classes and lessons for all elementary, middle, and high school grad levels. Regular announcements encourage people to stay at home, restrict their travels to a minimum, and postpone any sort of gathering (be it weddings or funerals). Normally, this month is the busiest month in Iran since it is right before the Iranian New Year (the first day of spring). Unlike China which seemed to have had a more military style public health approach with forced quarantines and travel restrictions, Iran’s approach has been based on voluntary restrictions, individual and family self-regulation of movements and travels, health education, and public mobilization. Still, the usual hustle and bustle for this time of the year is not felt.
One can find a range of reactions from the people here. Some are fearful and crowd-shy; some are indifferent and shrug their shoulders and carry on with their work as usual; many students are happy with no school and no midterms; and some exchange jokes and information via social media. While we weather this latest storm, I will end this piece with a transcript of a direct message by Novel Corona Virus to the People of Iran that is translated just for you and posted below:
“Iranian People, Salaam. I hope you are not scared by the fact that I am introducing myself to you. I am Corona. I was busy traveling and making my way through different countries and getting them involved. Then I thought why not pay you a visit as well while I’m at it. But, to tell you the truth, I am regretting my decision. I did not know I would be wreaking such havoc on you. The way you have treated me, I thought I was Plague, Cholera, or Ebola. I searched the net and discovered that all this time, I had not killed but a couple of thousands all over the world. Do you know how much more death is caused by regular influenza compared to me?! World Health Organization estimates an annual death between 290,000 to 650,000. Am I more dangerous than that?! In all fairness, I do not say you shouldn’t take precautions but let me be frank with you, if you continue like this, 2000 of you will die just out of sheer panic. Besides, you produce 40 to 50 dead people every day with your traffic accidents. I should be the one to fear you not the other way around. Now, I, the Corona, have come and will extract a low percentage of death from you like all other places. Death is an inevitable truth and just end. I and automobiles (Pride) are just tools and means. Then, why so much self-harm and stress?! Is that your habit?! Do you enjoy doing that?! Why do you act in a way that I, the Corona itself, feel compelled to calm you down? Urgh.”[15]
References
[1] «وَأَنَّ السَّاعَةَ آتِيَةٌ لَّا رَيْبَ فِيهَا وَأَنَّ اللَّهَ يَبْعَثُ مَن فِي الْقُبُورِ» “And indeed that the Hour is coming – no doubt about it – and that Allah will resurrect anyone who is in the graves.” Holy Quran, Chapter 22 (I-hajj), Verse 7.
[2] Kampf G et al., Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents, Journal of Hospital Infection, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.02. https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf
[3]Nelson KL et al (2018). “Sunlight-mediated inactivation of health-relevant microorganisms in water: a review of mechanisms and modeling approaches.” Environmental Sciences Processes Impacts, No 20, Pages 1089–1122. Available online at: https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2018/em/c8em00047f
[4] Lytle CD & Sagripanti JL (2005). “Predicted Inactivation of Viruses of Relevance to Biodefense by Solar Radiation.” Journal of Virology, 79(22):14244–14252. doi:10.1128/JVI.79.22.14244–14252.2005
[5] Chun-Chieh Tseng & Chih-Shan Li (2007). “Inactivation of Virus-Containing Aerosols by Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation.” Aerosol Science and Technology, 39:12, 1136-1142, DOI: 10.1080/02786820500428575.
[6] Schuit M et al (2020). “The Influence of Simulated Sunlight on the Inactivation of Influenza Virus in Aerosols.” The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 221(3):372–378, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz582
[7] Mead MN (2008). “Benefits of Sunlight: A Bright Spot for Human Health.” Environmental Health Perspective, 116(4):A161-167. Available online at: https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/pdf/10.1289/ehp.116-a160.
[8] CDC -Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2020). “Estimated Range of Annual Burden of Flu United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons.” Available online at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
[9] Zumla A et al (2020). “Reducing mortality from 2019-nCoV: host-directed therapies should be an option.” The Lancet, Vol 395, Pages e35-36. Available online at: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930305-6
[10] Sun P et al (2020). “Clinical characteristics of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection.” MedRxiv, BMJ Yale, doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539.
[11] Kaiyuan Sun, Jenny Chen, & Cécile Viboud (2020). “Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowd sourced data: a population-level observational study.” Lancet Digital Health 2020. Published Online February 20, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30026-1
[12] Mehrnews, “The Announcement for Newest Statistics for Corona in Iran/593 got infected.” Online Mehr News Agency, Health Section, 10th Esfand, 1398, @13:24. News Code: 4865337.
[13] Mehrnews, “New Statistics for Corona in Iran was announced.” Online Mehr News Agency, Health Section, 11th Esfand, 1398, @14:23. News Code: 4866827.
[14] Mehrnews, “The Government’s Spokesperson’s Explanations regarding Rohani’s Statements regarding Corona.” Online Mehr News Agency, Politics Section, 10th Esfand, 1398, @12:05. News Code: 4865746.
[15] Corona, “Take precautions but don’t over-react.” Transcription from Farsi, Video available online at: https://www.aparat.com/v/xEfgk
Citation: “The most complex, the deadliest, and the scariest pathogens that are created by human beings anytime and anywhere on earth as bioweapons or as anything else are not, cannot be, and will never be anything but clumsy, crude, synthetic, and cheap imitations of what exists already in an all-encompassing natural/biological systems. Full stop.”
Whenever someone says “Full stop.”, one can be quite sure that the person doesn’t have any arguments, but only dogmas.
One can see the weakness of “Iran” in a nutshell in such a sentence — reality is replaced by dogma.
I have not seen yet any rational discussion of “Corona” — everything is always influenced by the political (here religious) point of view of the author.
People today are under deadly attack from *two* fronts — from the right *and* from the left. The rightists always say “god does everything, man nothing” (and “your duty is to believe us”), the leftist always say “man does everything, and that is bad” (and “your duty is to believe us”). You see this regarding “climate change”: the Rightists say “how could tiny small man change anything about the earth?”, the Leftists say “man destroys everything”.
Regarding that virus, that’s similar, but there’s then also the China-hatred of many Rightists, and the discrimination-phobia of the Leftists.
I truly do not know of any information source in this whole world which is not heavily tainted. And very little true investigations, but much dogma.
In this sense one can have a bit of hope, that “the virus” and “the climate”, which are finally real-world processes, might correct in a hopefully obvious way some believes, some dogmas.
@Oliver
Alongside your quibble with: "Full Stop". I will add this….. and I hate to be "that guy"…… but.
Covid2019 is not a "nickname".
It is the official UN WHO designated name.
A nickname I endorse is "carona-chan".
》 The World Health Organization announced on 11 February 2020 that "COVID-19" will be the official name of the disease.
World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said "co" stands for "corona", "vi" for "virus" and "d" for "disease", while "19" was for the year, as the outbreak was first detected on Dec 31 2019.
……(And I also hate citing wikipedia….)
Thank you Mansoureh for a reasoned and timely reminder of what the deadliness of this virus is NOT. And thank you for a much-needed sense of proportion.
IT’S NOT THE BLACK DEATH,which is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of the population of Europe:
The Black Death, also known as the Pestilence (Pest for short), the Great Plague or the Plague, or less commonly the Black Plague, was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people in Eurasia, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351. Wikipedia.
IT’S NOTHING LIKE the Great Plague of London 1665/1666 which killed around 100,000 people, a quarter of the population.
IT’S NOTHING LIKE the 1918 influenza pandemic (‘Spanish Flu’) which is estimated to have infected around 500 million people, over a quarter of the planet’s population at that time, resulting in the deaths of between 40 million to 100 million people.
And, as the author correctly shows, it is nothing like as deadly as the winter flu of modern times.
So the question remains: why the panic and over-blown reactions in countries both East and West? Maybe, as the author opines, in China and Iran it is a trial run for a more serious attack from their enemies. But how account for the reactions in other countries?
I have posted already some actual figures.
Lets translate those into reality.
Let us take a city/state with 5 million people. Somewhere between 1-5% will get infected and perhaps 0.5% will present as cases at a hospital.
So that means 25,000 people turning up at the hospital door. Of those we will assume 15% need extra care ICU, respirators etc. So that is at least 3500 ICU hospital beds taken up and about half will die. So let us for ease say 1400 deaths. across a large country of 150 million that is 21,000 deaths and 42,000 in critical care.
Of course if the infection rate is higher – ie more like the 25% of the cruise ship, then you are looking at much much higher death numbers.
I think it is VERY like the Influenza outbreak of 1918 and while i would hope our containment is a little better (i rather doubt it to be honest) I fully expect at least 10% of the world’s population to get it and perhaps 1% to die. sure most will be over 60 but hey that includes ME.
The panic is due to our business structures. We have gone to just-in-time inventories, highly leveraged balance sheets where companies such as Boeing borrow money to pay dividends when they have a net negative equity and have a net loss for the previous fiscal year. These companies have a supply chain that stretches across the planet to exploit cheap labour, tax breaks, tax holidays and other gimmicks. They depend on reliable transport across tens of thousands of kilometers to create their end-products. Any disturbance in this fragile system can collapse the entire system particularly in the command and control centers.
A factory without their quality inspector cannot ship its product until the missing comrade has been replaced. There is very little slack or redundancy to absorb any kind of shocks.
The employees have no savings, living from month to month, barely paying their bills on time. If they are laid off or forced to take their vacations prematurely, their little savings are almost instantly wiped out. In the USA a large percentage of employees cannot afford any health insurance. If they are sick it is their financial ruin.
When Boeing or one of its suppliers is forced to dismiss its workers, the ex-employees will take almost anything to stay financially afloat. This often means moving far away to some other center. If the company is able to sort out its problems, it will be difficult or impossible to lure their previous employees back again. This means a cycle of inadequate training of new hires such as at Boeing where tools, rags and other debris are found in new aircraft fuel tanks, waiting for delivery.
The panic is very much understated, in my humble opinion.
Don’t know about US but I suspect it is the same as UK where pneumonia is a frequent cause of death for the very elderly and infirm. First they nil by mouth (at which point they are being starved to death) then their breathing goes and they are defined dead by lung infection.
If Corona replaces traditional flu, then it will not mean much. If it adds to tradtional flu and kills additional people it makes a big difference. Best not ignored.
Michael
I think we should look at the cruise ship data to get a good handle on this. OK for sure the people on the boat are an older demographic but they are NOT the sort of very elderly people where it is nil by mouth. So it is not really the same as pneumonia – “the old man’s friend.”
Of the 705 cases from the boat still in Japan 7 are dead – 1% and 36 more are critical. At least one more has died from among the Australian evacuees. So I think we are looking at least at a 2-3% death rate, but of course it will be much higher in an aged care setting. Again just applying a rule of thumb, we can probably assume that this will perhaps add 2% on top of the usual death rate from flu induced pneumonia.
Well, I enjoyed your essay, mostly the last part of it ,” the message by Corona Virus “, thank you !
I am sorry to argue but this is way too complacent.
Let us look at the data from China which is three months into the epidemic and also has largely contained the outbreak so that the data is almost complete.
If you assume 10 million people in Wuhan (where MOST of the infections have been) the number of cases is roughly 0,65%. If we assume that this is slightly under reported and that there were many mild cases (especially in children) then it is probably reasonable to assume an infection rate of about 1% , wherever the virus spreads uncontained. It was winter and there are high population densities so it might reduce a little over time. On the other hand we KNOW that in a contained space about 800 of the roughly 3200 people on board the Diamond princess caught the virus so about 25%.
Now lets look at the death rate. On the Chinese data the death rate in Hubei is 4.2% (already) and in China as a whole 3.6%. In addition there is another 9-10% listed as CRITICAL, so if 1/3 of those die we are looking at a death rate of about 7% – VERY SIMILAR to SARS.
At this stage it is totally USELESS to look at raw death rate/case numbers figures because this disease seems to have a very long and nasty pattern. From symptom (ie being identified as a case) to severe illness seems to take about 5-7 days so it is absurd to say compare new cases to deaths. Now in China because the number of NEW cases is falling sharply we can start to get a much closer approximation to the true death rate. It is going to end up about 6-8% I would think of reported cases. If the epidemic becomes naturalized ie no ongoing testing or containment then the death rate will fall because many, many mild cases will go unreported. However I suspect it will still be much much higher than the flu.
Minor point, this virus is NOT a flu virus – belongs to a quite different group.
Now with regard to Iran, the epidemic seems to have burst out of nowhere and they did not start detecting cases until people were seriously sick. Now i think we can assume that it had already reached substantial levels in the community BEFORE reporting – this is obvious from the number of people who have carried the infection to other places – Australia, UK etc. Same for Italy. Iran of course has a very stained health system (thanks to sanctions) so it will struggle more than most.
It is interesting that everywhere outside Iran, ordinary people have been affected, while in Iran it has gone directly to the very top polotical levels. Tres bizarre, ce n’est pas?
I found that a very rational essay. The author is correct in that this virus provides a certain level of threat but actually less so than others. I also have gone to the immune system, using the well known supporters such as Vit D & C etc, plus of course the verified pathogen killer that grows widely in the middle east, olive leaf. Such preparation is all you can do, plus it is good for your general health any way.
You do realise I assume that the epidemic is about to break big time in the USA.
There are now 99 confirmed cases and very, very limited testing. Once they actually start testing people with pneumonia and “flu” I expect the numbers to be above 300 in a few days and 500 within a week. after that who knows.
@watcher
Let us see how the evil empire deal with this. I know I will be watching a comedy show of errors and ineptness and absolute hubris.
Here are two websites that track the progress of this disease throughout the world:
1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
2. https://avatorl.org/covid-19/?page=World
The second website shows the progression of the disease over time from day 1 through the current day by using the video controls at the bottom of the graphical display.
The disease spreads by airborne transmission and currently has an R0 (Basic Reproductive Ratio) of 1.4 – 3.8
(see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number ) .
There is a myriad of human and demographic factors that affect the mathematical models that calculates R0 such as: population density, individual immune response, quality of healthcare available, age, gender, air movement, air temperature, air density, etc. R0 will fluctuate from the early stages of a new disease or variant thereof and as the disease circulates to different geographic locations.
What follows is a layperson’s understanding of this new strain of virus since the first case was reported in December, 2019.
The disease spreads when the infected person (1) expels the virus by a cough or nasal sneeze through the air and the virus comes in contact with another individual (2) after the infected person has expelled the virus and it rests somewhere else on their body such as hands, face, arms and then makes physical contact with another individual (3) after the infected person has expelled the virus and it rests somewhere other than their body such as any other surface and then another individual touches that surface. These routes of entry are the same for many other contagious viruses such as: influenza, MERS, SARS, the common cold, etc.
So far there has been no confirmation the virus is spread asymptomatically, meaning before the infected person shows any signs of contagion
(see: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/high-profile-report-on-asymptomatic-spread-of-coronavirus-based-on-faulty-information-health-officials-say/ ).
The disease has a latency or incubation period of 2 – 14 days, which explains how the virus has spread across the globe undetected until outward symptoms appear and the routes of transmissions engage a new target population.
Since there is no current vaccine available, the public has to use commonsense to prevent infection.
1. Be watchful of the health of people around you at work or out in the various public venues. If a person or child repeatedly coughs or sneezes then avoid them as much as possible.
2. Some individuals attempt to clean their nose with bare fingers (i.e. “the pick”), which is a guaranteed route of infection through the thin membranes of the nasal passages. Resist the temptation and use a tissue.
3. Be diligent about personal hygiene at all times (e.g., wash hands often with soap and water before and after touching body entry or exit cavities such as the mouth, eyes, ears, nose, external reproductive organs and liquid and solid waste elimination).
4. Wear food-grade gloves when shopping for food especially when handling produce. Dispose of the gloves when returning home and make sure fruits and vegetables are thoroughly washed before consumption.
5. Refrain from communal feeding outside the home as much as possible!
6. Resist displays of affection when greeting international travelers!
7. Get plenty of rest and drink sufficient quantities of non-alcoholic fluids to keep hydrated.
8. If you experience any flu-like symptoms go to the doctor and get tested.
All of the above are the same precautions that people should be aware of regarding the influenza season, especially those who are elderly (like me).
Lastly, the media is stoking the flames of fear that has caused panic and worry in many countries. Stress is a factor in weakening the immune system so stay calm and everybody who is reasonably healthy will get through this alive.
The only ‘poster’ on the alt-internet that I have seen is Orlov, and he’s been 100% rational all along, and the first thing he say’s is “I’m not an expert”; ZH has all along been pushing the ‘insane narrative’
Orlov said from the beginning that people have over-reacted, I’m here in Asia, and I can see people are over-reacting, with ignorance and stupidity.
When this thing comes to USA expect them to go full retard.
All there is to know is the infection rate and death rate, in most country’s you can count the death’s on one hand, thus its very true your more likely to die slipping in bathroom on a bar of soap, and hitting your head. Not a month goes by and somebody doesn’t die like that in my village, but nobody has banned bath’s or soap.
I do agree with Orlov, given this has hit Iran&China the hardest, and they’re public enemy #1 of USA-Trump, its Occam’s-Razor to assume that USA-CIA released the virus in the “Chicago of China” to destroy their economy, and what did they do? They declared war on the virus ( and won ), now the same virus is boomer-ranging back to its source, and guess what? The USA will not give free test-kits to the public hospitals, in fact everybody in USA health is using this as a last means to get the last drop of blood from the public bank account’s.
First the MSM created the frenzy that CHINA was ignoring the virus, yet China had locked down 1 Billion people. Now the same MSM is ignoring the fact that Trump has a restraining order where nobody can publicly comment about the virus other than him or his crony’s, and of course the MSM is silent about the hypocrisy.
Concurred this virus is a nothing burger, but the USA will make this as a catalyst for civil-war because the shopping mall’s will be going empty of Chinese product, and the racial tensions will be used to foment blame between yellow, brown, black, & whites. Expect massive gun control to be called for as people take to armed gangs in order to secure their ‘cargo’ ( stuff that walmart used to sell )
Trump brought all this on, he declared war on Iran&China, he killed Soleimani, and his CIA released the virus in Wuhan; Now Trump must live with his feces that he created. Now that the USA has 100% demonized Chinese, there will be blow-back, and most likely after this China will return to its former self of building a wall, and protecting itself from white-trash. Sure they’ll continue to trade and invest in the silk-road, but from now on the USA is persona-non-grata.
I think you might have gone a little too far here. Agreed on most of the particulars, but I doubt the blow back is going to be all that great, this time at least. Of course this could also well be just a trial run – a proof of concept is you will – for something much greater next time. That’s how the boys at Langely usually like to proceed.
Excellent essay Mansoureh ! Thank you for the translation of Novel Corona Virus message to the People of Iran and presented to us. It sounds more and more like The War of the Worlds (1938 radio drama) with Orson Welles :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q7tN7MhQ4I
A sinister world wide experiment.The fruits to come will show the tree ( mandatory vaccinations,among many,many others )
Lo! Who is the owner of this sinister tree?
I didn’t know that sunlight was bad for virus’ now that tale of flu spreading faster in winter and slowing in spring makes sense. There has been a flurry of reporting by Iran haters showing Iranians licking shrines which is icky. Is that true or part of the information war along with all of these senior govt officials either dying or being infected by the virus.
I did enjoy reading this bit of sanity, especially here in the west where media has everyone wondering if we are all doomed. The tales pretending to be news highlight the barbarism of ‘Communist China’, the ‘Chicoms’, the ‘Red Chinese’. They are cruelly herding people, welding apartment door shut so they cannot escape and have crematoriums running full bore because of the huge mass of deaths. Many foolish people here believe this garbage. A few individuals, including doctors have complimented China on their response. As for this article, I found his health maintenance advice to be refreshing. I thought I was listening to my grandmother! Good call on excessive hand washing, especially using chemicals. I remember reading a number of years back of someone who developed an infection from a hospital visit which they were not able to clear up. The patient was told to spend time outside in the sun and working in the dirt. Guess what? Cured!
It does remind me of a clip I saw of Al (inconvenient truth) Gore who admitted it would be insane to engage in geo-engineering to battle climate change, which they have been doing anyway. Blocking sunlight is not good for anyone or anything.
>Gore: It would be insane, utterly mad and delusional in the extreme to turn to geo-engineering projects to avoid a climate catastrophe.
The idea that we can put a different form of pollution into the atmosphere to cancel out the effects of global warming pollution is utterly insane. The fact that some scientists who should know better are actually engaged in serious discussion of those alternatives is a mark of how desperate some of them are feeling due to the paralysis in the global political system.
The most discussed so-called geo-engineering proposals – like putting sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere to reflect incoming sunlight – that’s just insane. Let’s just describe that clearly – it is utterly mad.
Such large and untested experiments carried enormous risks while ‘doing nothing to address other consequences of climate change such as ocean acidification.
We are already engaged in a planet-wide experiment with consequences we can already tell are unpleasant for the future of humanity. So the hubris involved in thinking we can come up with a second planet-wide experiment that would exactly counteract the first experiment is delusional in the extreme
I also see that vaccine madness is sweeping the west, even in rural areas. Doctors and hospitals must be getting a bonus for every one of these toxic brews they convince people to accept.
I do have questions about government statistics regarding the ‘flu’. How do they know it was that season’s flu? Or bird flu or swine flu etc? Do they generally take swabs, blood tests or other tests? Or just look at symptoms and say ‘yep, it’s the flu!’. Do some reading on all sorts of different infections. Early symptoms are very similar. So how do they actually know this many people got flu and this many died each year? My wife requested I take her to emerg in our tiny community yesterday (what better way to spend one’s birthday?). When we finally got to see a rather obese doctor she listened to her lungs, asked questions and said ‘yep it sounds like flu’. Then she said she should be getting the flu vaccine regularly!
It looks to me we live in a world of lies and hysteria. It’s a good control mechanism when people are afraid of the unknown.
From all the comments here I can only say ‘Be afraid. Be very afraid’. The powers that be will never let a crisis go to waste. Even if that crisis is contrived. We can be sure of that.
I will try to use common sense. Follow decent dietary practices. Get plenty of rest. Try not to worry about things I cannot change. Obey the ‘dogmas’ of the Church (some will want to chew on a stick with that one). Get out in the sun as often as I see it here, which isn’t all that often. Definitely try to stay away from mainstream medical practitioners. And oh yes, very important: another cup of coffee from freshly hand-ground beans!
First cases of coronavirus in last 48 hours:
– Chile
– Argentina
– Liechtenstein
– Ukraine
– Gibraltar
– Morocco
– Senegal
– Tunisia
– Latvia
– Jordan
– Andorra
– Portugal
– Indonesia
– Saudi Arabia
— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 3, 2020
Summary:
– US virus death toll hits 9
– 2nd case confirmed in NY
– Oregon officials warn up to 500 cases may be in state already
– US now screening everyone aboard flights from SK and Italy
– Spain reports 1st death
– 1st case confirmed in North Carolina
– Westchester Temple closes
– Italy mulls cancelling all sporting events for a month
– 2nd NY case commuted to Manhattan, traveled to Miami
– Chile, Argentina report first cases
– Germany reports 46 new cases
– 2nd case confirmed in New Hampshire
– Santa Clara confirms 11th case
– 1st case reported in Berkeley
– Third case possibly identified in Fla.
– Stocks surge, then fade, after surprise 50 bp rate cut
– 4th person dies in France
– Fauci says we should know soon whether Gilead’s vaccine will work
– Son of Westchester corona case attended NYC school that closed
– Pope tests negative for coronavirus
– NYC high school closes over ‘suspected case of coronavirus’
– Global case total passes 91,000
– UK case total hits 51
– US case total tops 100 across 15 states (including evacuees)
– South Korea case total passes 5,000; death toll hits 34
– Italian death toll surpasses Iran
– Iran confirmed cases pass 2,000, 70+ dead
– Head of European football says Euro 2020 will go on
– new cases confirmed in Japan
Also…
Since 1896, the Olympics have only been canceled during wartime. And in 1976, 1980 and 1984 faced boycotts.
The longer the outbreak continues, the more uncertainty it would create for Olympic organizers. All eyes on May.
My QUESTION: So are we AT WAR? The PPL’s war?
All CDC, DoD, WHO and World Bank is chipping in…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dod-official-admits-covid-19-likely-be-pandemic-within-next-30-days
Will the hot/warm weather that is coming be the ‘saviour and the cure’?
Well, Iran is pretty hot, weather wise and it does not…. you know.
Is Asian Male gene target still in trend? ACEII?
Or 5G frequency activated virus-nanobots?
Or just generally per-existence bad/weak health of individual and fixed destiny?
OR OR OR…
Cliff High is an interesting character and his expertise is in Predictive Linguistic. He seem to nail BIG on the rise to 20K BTC and other significant pivatol events. He became very emotional and broke down at the end of the interview..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuZEpAqK0S0
Is something way more than that?
OR OR OR…
Google Translate Will Help from Andrei Martyanov’s Blog
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/02/google-translate-will-help.html
AND MOST IMPORTANT and ALL THAT IS MOST IMPORTANT -> What say you?
I read somewhere these is also a confirmed case in Iceland. Huh?!
Even if the virus is a 9ONE1 grade, the ‘downturn’ will get all of us. Who’s is to say what other ‘good laws’ will be legislated, under one united world, for our ‘responsibility’ and ‘collective survival benefit’?
The dead don’t talk back!
USA (and the rest of the countries) is not going to build hospitals in 8 days. As with 9ONE1 grade production, it seems, we have move into deep into the mid-way of the viral story… I am still looking for the Final June Ending…
Be safe Friends
Global Research: In the past two years (during the trade war) China has suffered several pandemics:
February 15, 2018: H7N4 bird flu. Sickened at least 1,600 people in China and killed more than 600. Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
June, 2018: H7N9 bird flu. Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
August, 2018: outbreak of African swine flu. Same strain as Russia, from Georgia. Millions of pigs killed. China needs to purchase US pork products.
May 24, 2019: massive infestation of armyworms in 14 province-level regions in China, which destroy most food crops. Quickly spread to more than 8,500 hectares of China’s grain production. They produce astonishing numbers of eggs. China needs to purchase US agricultural products – corn, soybeans.
December, 2019: Coronavirus appearance puts China’s economy on hold.
January, 2020: China is hit by a “highly pathogenic” strain of bird flu in Hunan province. Many chickens died, many others killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
The standard adage is that bad luck happens in threes, not sixes.
So far this coronavirus is not worse than a flu virus.
Only the media make it really big.
What do they hide indirectly from public view this way?