The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey continue their large-scale offensive to capture the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian forces. Following the gains of the previous days, when Azerbaijani forces captured the towns of Talish, Jabrayil and Mataghis, they developed momentum in the Jabrayil district capturing the villages of Shikhali Agali, Sari jali, and Mezre, and several other hill tops, according to the country’s president Ilham Aliyev.
Currently, Azerbaijani forces are working to consolidate their gains and conduct artillery and air strikes on positions of the Armenians preparing for a further offensive. So, the Azerbaijani advance slowed down due to weather conditions. The bad weather in the area complicates the usage of combat drones and aviation.
Meanwhile, forces of the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic announced that they had carried out ‘powerful’ retaliation strikes on territory of Azerbaijan. Armenian sources insist that after the strikes, several hundred thousand residents of different cities of Azerbaijan have been fleeing in panic to Baku. The Armenian military claimed that Azerbaijan paid a heavy price for the recent gains. According to it, Armenian forces inflicted to the ‘enemy’ 3154 casualties and destroyed 368 armoured vehicles, 4 rocket launchers, 124 UAVs, 17 military planes and 14 helicopters. The Armenian side emphasizes that Azerbaijani forces have been extensively bombing civilian targets, including the largest Karabakh city, Stepanakert. Azerbaijan denounces these claims as blatant propaganda.
The ongoing Azerbaijani advance is not only supported by Turkey and involves Turkish military specialists, special forces and military equipment, but also became another case of the employment of Turkish-backed Syrian militants.
On October 5, Russia’s state-run news agency RIA reported citing its own sources that at least 93 Turkish-backed militants had been killed since the start of the war on September 27. The report added that at least 450 more militants were deployed to the combat zone last weekend. This was reportedly the third batch of Syrian militants deployed to the area.
The Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc has been taking an upper hand in the battle against Armenian forces. The decisive role belongs to the air dominance and the numerical superiority of the Azerbaijani side. The only current advantage of Armenian forces is the low quality of Azerbaijani infantry and Turkish-backed Syrian militants involved in the ground advance as well as the low planning and management skills of the ground phase of the Azerbaijani operation.
Azerbaijani infantry and motorized units marching towards fortified positions of Armenians become an easy target for counter-attacks, artillery and missile strikes. This reminds one of the approaches employed by Turkey in Syria and Libya, when Ankara was sending waves of cannon fodder (consisting of members of various militant groups) to capture positions of the ‘enemy’, while Turkish special forces, artillery and air power were doing the main job.
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Armenia are not employing all the variety of means and measures that they have to fight back the advancing Azerbaijani military. Despite the loud propaganda about the Armenian key role in resisting to the ‘terror alliance’ of Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Pashinyan government has no political will to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and go for a full-scale war to defend Armenian population there.
Thus, the participation of the official Armenian military in supporting forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (as it remains a de-facto independent state with its own military forces) are limited as of now. This raises reasonable questions regarding the real goals of the Pashinyan government. Experts say that in fact what it aims is to achieve are the goals of his government’s foreign patrons in the Washington establishment thus losing Karabakh and using this as a pretext to break its remaining ties with Russia and push the country towards its integration with NATO.
On October 5, Pashinyan publicly admitted that the situation on the frontline is “complicated” and called on servicemen demobilized a year ago to rejoin the Armed Forces. The prime minister said that he was calling them not to a simple service, but to the battle “between life and death”. Pashinyan also declared that he is confident in Armenian victory.
Nonetheless, the mobilization of reservists showcases that the real situation is much more complicated than everyone wants to admit. Moreover, just fresh troops, without modern weapons, experienced commanders and instructors, will not be able to turn the tide of the conflict. In the worst case scenario, this may just increase casualties on the Armenian side.
Experts say that in fact what it aims is to achieve are the goals of his government’s foreign patrons in the Washington establishment thus losing Karabakh and using this as a pretext to break its remaining ties with Russia and push the country towards its integration with NATO.
Honestly, I thought this would develop this way. This is the Modus Operandi of all NATO stooges. The same drill has been happening in Serbia with its US/NATO vassals gradually disowning Kosovo and Metohija as an integral part of Serbia whilst attacks of the Serbia’s officials against Russia and anti-Russia rhetoric being stoked up.
Dear Saker,
Let’s make it clear from the beginning – I am an Armenian living in Europe, so I have not an objective point of view. But:
This piece from Southfront is as biased and ridiculous like some other reports from last months about other conflicts.
Just take a look at the wording:
‘Experts say that in fact…’ (mass media anyone?),
or the word enemy put in quotation marks (when else can you call someone an enemy if not in a war!),
same with ‘terror alliance’ of Turkey and Azerbaijan (do you have the slightest doubt that terrorist from Syria and even Central Asia are deployed in this conflict by Turkey and Azerbaijan? – well Southfront has!) and ‘loud propaganda’ about it, just to name a few.
Next stupidity – heavy Azerbaijani losses are presented as actually a winning strategy: ‘…sending waves of cannon fodder… while Turkish special forces, artillery and air power were doing the main job’.
Well, what about doing the main job without sending waves of cannon fodder? And was this tactics successful in Syria or Libya? I must have missed the big Turkish victories over there!
Regarding Pashinyan – I despise him too for being the stooge of Soros and would be very glad to see him in jail once this war is won. I hope and believe that the military will do the necessary job. But what virtually everyone here (commentators, contributors and even you) are not seeming to understand are the two main, huge actually, differences between Armenia and other color-revolutioned countries:
– Armenian people are inherently and deeply Russophile (comparable to Serbs and Greeks). Any comparison with passionate Russia haters from the Baltics or, even worse, Poles, Ukrainians is outright laughable!
– What I (and all the others here on this site) am able to see from Europe is also visible to the men who are fighting literally for the survival of their nation. So it is not comparable to the situation in Western countries (incl. “new Europeans” from the east) where the traitors to the nation and the sheeple who keep their silence don’t risk immediate punishment and deadly (!) consequences. Believe me; it makes a difference if you know that your wife, your daughters will begin to serve as sex-slaves in the next few days if you only fail! So it is not possible to slowly cook the Armenians like the western frogs.
You, Katerina and a lot of others complain often (rightly so) that Russians are not understood by the West. Well, let me tell you, Armenians are also not well understood the very same way. Especially by people who are very eager to “teach lessons” – and there are tons of them here on this site. I just want to emphasize that Armenians somehow managed to survive the first 2.000 years in similarly difficult conditions without the help of Russians (they just weren’t around yet). So, I am quite confident that we will still be here tomorrow – with or without help from this side or that side.
Having said that, yes, we need help from Russia and I am 100% sure that we will get it too (actually they are already helping I think). Luckily, Putin is not there to teach lessons but to defend his countries interests.
My conclusion: This is your site (a great site with excellent contributors and interesting comments) so you do like you want, but just because I care, I wanted to tell that Southfront is not a credible source for a while now and is not really contributing to your prestige.
Regards,
Lucas
Russia, Iran and China patience is amazing.
The West and Nato are trying to break the world apart and create a new cold war.
At some point in history, the east did nothing like in Lybia and Iraq. Then eastern powers resisted like in Syria.
Now is time to fight back and crush a flailing US Nato unacceptable overeach and foray in Eurasian sphere of influence.
You call it a patience?
Iran will do his job when the time comes. Will Russia do ever? I call it a blatant negligence and absence of any plan.
Ask yourself a question: what would comrade Stalin do walking the shoes of Putin? For the start just recall what he did with Trotskiy and compare to Navalnyi…
And what has China to do with it (I mean Karabakh)? Oh, the Belt road, do not worry, they will bribe any government.
“Russia, Iran and China patience is amazing”
It isn’t patience, it’s weakness. and the ‘playing for time’ excuse too, playing for what time, time for another 25 corvettes carrying 24 Zircons each? Russia could roll up NATO in a fortnight as it stands right now, at some point an example has to be made of the US, ok they got their asses handed to them on a plate in Syria but in the end the US got what it wanted, the oil (yes, ‘Assad must go’ etc but all the Yanks ever want is the oil, the gas, the resources and/or the drugs – eg. Afghanistan) Every day is another day that China gets sanctioned, Russia gets sanctioned, Iran gets sanctioned, on and on … America is very weak at this moment in time, economically, socially and militarily, for all the BS they can’t deal with a hot war, so Putin should call their bluff, this whole axis of resistance is not a force to be reckoned with, not yet, it’s a force to jab the Empire with a needle in a few places and they’re hardly likely to bleed to death. You really want to deal with the Amercans, NATO (what’s left of it) and the Europeans? Then show them who is boss and what the cost will be if they don’t quit with the nonsense, force them to the table with the threat of utter humiliation. Russia is any nations equal on this planet, why do they continue to act like they’re a bit part player feeling lucky crossing swords with the old Empire when they could lop off its head.
Dear A-mouse,
What you fail to understand is that the last thing Russians want is another war. They’ve paid too heavy of price in the last one. Today, the firepower of weapons is too destructive. In just hours hundreds of thousands will die.
At this time, the West knows that Russia is off limits militarily. There isn’t a nation on earth, including the U.S. that would contemplate attacking Russia.
All the saber rattling is a racket to make money through MIC. It works both ways. The Russians, Chinese, and the Western block is in on this game.
Russia will continue to provide weapons and consultants to Armenia. This conflict will simmer while everyone is making money, just like Donbas.
Unfortunately, people are dying for the money game of the rich.
Best regards,
Crazyczar
Christian Solidarity International, an authentic charity, is already there and needs donations. Normally they are focused on Sudan and Nigeria. They do not distinguish in favor of Catholic or Orthodox or non Christian but deliver help on the ground….and protect stray children from bad guys.
They do serious real time things, like provide bicycles for polio handicapped in Sudan, if you know about that scandal.
” thus losing Karabakh and using this as a pretext to break its remaining ties with Russia and push the country towards its integration with NATO.”
OK, why would losing Karabakh cause Armenia to break its remaining ties with Russia?
I too am having problems understanding such a strategy…
Military defeat & loss of NK would greatly weaken Pashinyan politically. If anything this would tip the scales in favour of Russia.
Pashinyan has not publicly asked for help from Russia & CSTO. In fact he appears to be deliberately sitting on his hands…?
Why should Pashinyan/Armenia ask for – overt – help from Russia? And how would that help look like? Sending soldiers or the airforce? Armenians don’t need soldiers from Russia, they have enough people able/willing to fight.
Airforce is also not needed, they are dealing quite well with the drones even if they inflicted some heavy losses especially in the first days. Azerbaijani Airforce has no weight, the Turkish can not be used for obvious reasons.
And other kind of help which is indeed necessary (arms, intelligence etc.) can be provided covertly. My guess is, it is already happening. Don’t worry, I as an Armenian feel quite comfortable)
In fact, my only worry is that they could come up with a staged chemical attack, Syrian style, once they realize that they will achieve nothing.
Russia won’t interfere and help Armenia military, the main reason is that Armenian territory is not being attacked but Armenia has illegally occupied Azerbaijan territory. CSTO agreement comes into force if Armenia itself is attacked.
Your previous comment (Dear Saker) is enlightening and to the point, well sasid.
Losing Karabakh would solve Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity thus fullfill conditions for Azerbaijan to join Nato.
If everybody joins Nato so will Armenia if Russia won’t interfere in protecting Karabakh.
Well….we await any results of rhe OSCE meeting in Paris today….later in Moscow ….
Well, one should never forget that Pashinyan came to power in a Soros-backed Color Revolution. I’m not surprized at all by this development.
Conspiracy, there is! And Southfront seems to be part of it:
I just read this:
https://t.me/reartsakheng
“‼️ A few days ago, I received an alarm signal that some people went to one of the front lines and convinced the warring soldiers that “Nikol sold the land, that this is actually a conditional war, they brought you here to the meat grinder to kill, so that the agreement was not visible”, “there is no point in holding positions”. According to some reports, persuasions, even orders of soldiers forced them to leave some combat positions to the enemy. On my instructions, the national security service launched an investigation, and one of the key operatives, a resident of Stepanakert, was found and arrested in Yerevan. As part of the initiated criminal case, an investigation is underway, as a result of which it will be found out which of the above information is real and which is fictional. Currently, various hypotheses are being considered, including the hypothesis of political orientation, but there is not much information yet. I urge our compatriots who have such information to contact the national security service. Traitors should not be in our ranks, and we need to clear the backs of heroic soldiers, volunteers and freedom fighters from such elements. And the victory will be for the Armenian people. For The Sake Of The Motherland, — Nikol Pashinyan.”
Yes, Pashinyan is a stooge of Soros and I despise him as much as the others here. But to try to change the leadership of a country (any country) this way at this stage of the war is simply suicidal. Think about how the soldiers who are fighting right now will be affected by such rumors. With all the bias in the above article I have written about in my previous post a few hours ago (which I hope will be published yet) it is clear to me that Southfront is part of this conspiracy against Armenia.
The bad smell of Zionism is all around the place!
Southfront’s coverage is strange.
They also published that Armenia attacked the Azeri oil infrastructure. This was quickly debunked on Twitter with photos of Israeli weapons (which bombed the pipeline). Azerbaijan are the only ones in possession of these weapons.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status/1314136270965288961
It seems the Azeris are staging a false flag attack while disseminating information that will undermine adversary ‘s troops.
I am sending this post again (slightely changed. Obviously, the first time, hours ago, it didn’t come through.
Let’s make it clear from the beginning – I am an Armenian living in Europe, so I have not an objective point of view. But:
This piece from Southfront is as biased and ridiculous like some other reports from last months about other conflicts.
Just take a look at the wording:
‘Experts say that in fact…’ (mass media anyone?),
or the word enemy put in quotation marks (when else can you call someone an enemy if not in a war!),
same with ‘terror alliance’ of Turkey and Azerbaijan (do you have the slightest doubt that terrorists from Syria and even Central Asia are deployed in this conflict by Turkey and Azerbaijan? – well Southfront has!) and ‘loud propaganda’ about it, just to name a few.
Next stupidity – heavy Azerbaijani losses are presented as actually a winning strategy: ‘…sending waves of cannon fodder… while Turkish special forces, artillery and air power were doing the main job’.
Well, what about doing the main job without sending waves of cannon fodder? And what big victories did the Turks achieve by the use of this tactics in Syria or Libya? Did I miss something?
Regarding Pashinyan – I despise him too for being the stooge of Soros and would be very glad to see him in jail once this war is won. I hope and believe firmly that the military will do the necessary job. They have the guns and they risk their lives! What virtually everyone here (commentators, contributors and even Saker) are not seeming to understand or ignoring are the two main, huge actually, differences between Armenia and other color-revolutioned countries:
– Armenian people are inherently and deeply Russophile (comparable to Serbs and Greeks). Any comparison with passionate Russia haters from the Baltics or, even worse, Poles/Ukrainians is outright laughable!
– What I (and all the others here on this site) am able to see from Europe is also visible to the men who are fighting literally for the survival of their nation. So it is not comparable to the situation in Western countries (incl. “new Europeans” from the east) where the traitors and the sheeple who keep their silence don’t risk immediate punishment and deadly (!) consequences. Believe me; it makes a difference if you know that your wife, your daughters will begin to serve as sex-slaves in the next few days if you only fail! So it is not possible to slowly boil the Armenians like the western frogs.
Saker, Katerina and a lot of others complain often (rightly so) that Russians are not understood by the West. Well, let me tell you, Armenians are also not well understood the very same way. Especially by people who are very eager to “teach lessons” – and there are tons of them here on this site. I just want to emphasize that Armenians somehow managed to survive the first 2.000 years in similarly difficult conditions and environment without the help of Russians (they just weren’t around yet). So, I am quite confident that we will still be here tomorrow – with or without help from this side or that side.
Having said that, yes, we need help from Russia and I am 100% sure that we will get it too (actually they are already helping, I think). Fortunately, Putin is not there to teach lessons but to defend his countries interests.
Actually Iran is helping Armenia quite a lot and all the clawback is because of their intelligence. Iran has a massive vested interest in this process and things were dandy till Pashinyan took over. He’s not a zio stooge and people are sick of the previous oligarchs and despots.
Here’s a good article that should be read: https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/hypocrisy-masquerading-as-realpolitik-in-caucasus/
With due respect Lucas, if Armenians are mainly Russophiles, why did they make Nikol Pashinyan, widely regarded as Russophobe Soros’s stooge, PM?
Let’s put things in perspective:
The fighting is over Nagorno-Kharabakh/Artsakh, not Armenia or Azerbaijan. N-K/Artsakh is an Armenian enclave of about 160 000 souls located in Azerbaijan. N-K is often conflated with Armenia although they are ostensibly two separate states, and sometimes this conflation gives rise to confusion.
I don’t think people should pay too much attention to what is blatant propaganda from both sides of the conflict. By all accounts, considering the claimed losses of hundreds of armoured vehicles, planes, drones and heavy weapons, we would expect both militaries soon to be armed with pitchforks and riding bicycles to battle. That is not to say that we diminish the function of propaganda in war, just that we ought to search deeper.
Russia sees Armenia as a strategic ally and has a military base there. Russia also cultivates good relations with Azerbaijan and supplies weapons to both countries. The strategic relationship with Russia changed when Pashinyan came to power two years ago. He has opened the doors wide to the West and indeed has incorporated Western “NGOs” into his administration. On top of that he has gone out of his way to rile Moscow. Again, who made him PM?
Russia has repeatedly stated that defence arrangements as per CSTO only applies to Armenia proper and not N-K. This implies that Russia doesn’t recognise N-K as being Armenian or as being an independent state. Russia’s peace plan — the “Lavrov Plan” — has been rebuffed by Armenia.
Now, Russia stands to lose if there is a major war in the Transcaucas. But Russia wishes to respect international norms because it sees that that is the only way for the world order to remain stable — by respecting international law and working through international organizations. Because Russia does so, it appears weak in the eyes of many, especially the loonies in the West. But Russia has red lines in the region; even the dumbest Western talking-head knows that. During the flare-up in July this year, Russia exercised the Western and Southern military districts, involving around 150 000 troops and 400 aircraft. If that is not Russia’s way of telling other actors to — pardon my French — bugger off, I don’t know what is. And if push comes to shove, Russia is not averse to taking action — Crimea is testimony to that. I expect that presently, the West and even Erdogan can see that there’s a lesson to be learnt somewhere in there.
Lavrov Plan
https://panarmenian.net/m/eng/news/276028
“if Armenians are mainly Russophiles, why did they make Nikol Pashinyan, widely regarded as Russophobe Soros’s stooge, PM? ”
In short: Because they were fed up with the old corrupt government which was ruling the country for too long and Pashinyan lied and promised to continue with the pro-Russia policy. Once elected he began to betray the country, which doesn’t mean that the Armenians like to be betrayed.
The election of the stooge of an antirussian oligarch doesn’t qualify as proof of the nation itself being antirussian:
– Why did the Russians reelect Yeltsin for president back in 1996? Because they were russophobes too?
– Why do the Germans keep on electing Merkel despite the fact that meanwhile she did more (irreparable!) damage to Germany than Hitler? (I am not exagereting!) Are the Germans anti-german?
– Why is Vucic still there in Serbia? Are the Serbs russophobes too? Or even anti-serbian?
Just a few examples out of an endless list. You can try to complete it if you have a few hours of free time!
I agree to most what you are saying about Russian policies, I don’t see any signs of weakness on their part.
But the international law is on the side of the Armenians of Artsakh because the right to self-determination is an essential part of the international law.
“Again, who made him PM?”
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say, Mark Zuckerberg?
Do we seriously still believe that there is true democracy anywhere in the world?
Democracy died in Athens in 322 BC.
The borders within Yugoslavia were administrative and non-state, as well as if I am not mistaken, within the USSR. In fact, everything can be separated, but then parts which separeted themselves can also be separated. The communists did the same with Serbia, they created two provinces, one of which demanded to separate (with a smaller share of land ownership but with a larger population of one ethnicity). In Croatia, for example, the Autonomies of the former regions of Slavonia, Dalmatia and Istria were abolished, although they had greater historical rights to such things than Kosovo. The game of the International gang in breaking national and Orthodoxy. The same pay for Armenia. Others are just means to an goal.
To make it clear, I don’t believe that Pashinyan alone or with a few others is able to stop or delay the necessary help from Armenia to Artsakh.
The more I think about this, I come to the conclusion that it is even possible that Pashinyan didn’t/couldn’t deliver all they asked him for, so maybe they are trying to throw him under the bus now and at the same time weakening the Armenian side by dividing the nation with the help of this rumors. And if they manage to get Artsakh, that would also harm greatly Iran and Russia. Win-win-win.
Either way, I don’t think Pashinyan will be able to stay, even after a possible victory. (And no, not Putin will impose his resignation but the Armenian army).
By the way, I am following the media closely on both the Turkish and Armenian side, and things look rather good for the Armenians – for the moment. Azerbaijan has achieved nothing yet besides heavy destruction on civilian targets including cathedrals and even a mosque! Them having the upper hand – at the present-day – is strictly nonsense!