by “Y”
The situation in both areas is relatively stable. The sitrep is presented in a thematic order, maintaining chronological sequence within each theme. This should help the reader understand what is happening in these regions
Transcarpathia
ATO
The military units in the region continue to rely on public assistance to acquire non-lethal equipment. A small group of six or so pro-Ukrainian fighters known as the ‘Carpathian Sich’ currently active in the ATO region has requested thermal imagers and thermal underwear. The 128th Mukachevo mountain infantry brigade is also short of such equipment including protective clothing, radios, first aid supplies, fire extinguishers, power supplies and mattresses.
Multiple public events are held locally attempting to raise funds for the local military units. These include local collections, musical concerts, Ice Bucket challenges and the auction of dates with celebrities. The state has made such charitable aid exempted from tax. It is difficult to know whether these acts reflect a real local shortage of funds, an attempt to foster a patriotic spirit, or a combination of the two. Given the state of the Ukrainian economy, the former is certainly an important factor.
The local battalion is supposedly manned on the understanding that it is purely for local defense. A small group of about 27 individuals have volunteered to go to the front to support the ATO. This contingent was purely others ranks, as not a single officer volunteered for this duty.
The most recent official death count for Transcarpathia is only fifteen. Another 40 injured troops are receiving treatment at the Mukachevo military hospital. This unit has beds for 50 patients, so it is near capacity. Several of the wounded have very severe leg injuries, possibly requiring amputation. There are no public reports for casualties being treated elsewhere in the region. It is difficult to assess how realistic the official figures are given the number of troops sent to the front is unknown. There is certainly a shortage of commanders, APC gun operators and APC drivers.
Towards the end of August, the 5th battalion of the Prykarpattya brigade left the front. The 400 soldiers had been fighting for a long period without rest under very difficult conditions. The unit was stopped by Ukrainian security and police after travelling for 5 days from the south-east. The soldiers made their case and were granted 10 days leave. The commander has been detained for 2 months pending trial, with bail of 300,000 UAH. The troops protested his arrest as they did not consider him or themselves deserters, merely in need of rotation. This action has influenced the behavior of other units on the front who do not want to be treated as deserters.
The region is supporting a small number of refugees. The number amounted to a total of 1261 by the end of August 2014. Of these, 222 originated from Crimea, and the remainder are from the south-east of Ukraine. The refugees from Crimea obviously have not migrated as a result of the ATO operations. On 5 September, six fighters returned from the ATO with an unknown number of refugees including children.
Economy
There is low level discontent with the economy, which is probably not confined to this region. Prices are rising whilst wages staying the same. There is a Ukrainian joke – the local currency does not jump. There have also been tax increases on tobacco. Given the high prevalence of smoking in Ukraine, this is certainly not popular.
In a demonstration of Ukrainian humor (or their lack of a sense of irony), laws have been established allowing for the imposition of fines to be levied for overdue payments for public services.
Energy
The big news, fully played up in the press and on TV is the opening of a reverse flow gas pipeline from Slovakia. This runs from Vojny in Slovakia to Uzghorod in Transcarpathia. The Ukrainians claim this will carry 21.5 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas per day, three times the existing reverse flow from Poland and Hungary. The pipeline capacity would be 10 billion cu m / year. Other analysts dispute this figure, saying technical limits will reduce the capacity to 2 billion cu m / year. The main problem is the lack of spare capacity in Slovakia. A great deal was also made of the lower price charged by Slovakia – $360 per thousand cu m as opposed to the $385 commonly quoted as the Gazprom price.
Yatsenyuk claims that Ukraine can import a total of 15 billion cu m / year of gas via these reverse flow pipelines, amounting to 60% of Ukraine’s needs. It remains to be seen how realistic these figures are. If the alternative figures quoted are more realistic, the total would be ~ 7 billion cu m / year or about 28% of the demand. Either way, Ukraine is going to need to deal with Gazprom. Yatsenyuk also met with the Slovakian Prime Minister Fico who opposes sanctions against Russia. The outcome of that meeting was not reported.
A more immediately significant change representing the reality is illustrated by the reinstatement of daily electricity supply restrictions. Residential users face daily loss of power for the period 19:00-21:00. Some news sites report that cuts will occur from 08:00 to 10:00 as well.
Mobilisation
Following the initial high levels of opposition to mobilisation, the organizers of the current third phase stress that Transcarpathian units will be for local service only. The authorities will not stop anyone volunteering to go to the front. The current recruitment is for males aged 18-60 years who are medically fit for military service. The pay is supposedly 2000 UAH per month, rising with experience and duration of service.
Politics
The 1150,000 Hungarian minority has attempted to increase the effectiveness of its vote. The Hungarian block is split over 3 local constituencies which severely reduces the possibility of pro-Hungarian representation. The Society of Hungarian Culture asked the Regional State Administration representative Valeriy Luchenko to appeal to Poroshenko and Central Election Commission to establish single mandate constituencies for the Beregovo and Vynogradiv districts. Such constituencies exist in Kiev and elsewhere. This request was made on the basis of EU regulations on rights of minorities. This appeal was not accepted so the block is still split.
Commentators expect the forthcoming elections to be complicated by the war in the east. There is an expectation of political clashes, arson against deputies cars, and accusations of bribery. It is clear that the government wants to redistribute votes in order to pass laws required to implement IMF austerity and loan payback conditions.
The region will also be holding a number of small scale international military exercises. The first is Light Avalanche 2014 involving Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania. This is exercise relates to the Vynogradiv multinational engineer battalion TISA, involving about 150 soldiers training in flood protection for the Tisza river basin. A larger exercise, Karpaty 2014, is scheduled for the end of September. This is a multinational mountain infantry exercise, with 2500 troops from Ukraine and a similar number from the other participants. This will take place in the local mountains. These exercises were obviously scheduled long before the disastrous losses in the east and the consequent effects on troops levels. At the moment the Karpaty exercise is still scheduled.
Propaganda
The state and business oriented media supports the established convention that those opposing the Kiev regime in the south-east are terrorists. They follow the standard propaganda line that Russia has invaded and there are 10-15,000 Russian troops in east in addition to terrorist organizations. In contrast, the Hungarian language media describe the people in the south-east as dissidents.
Sanctions
Local patriotic initiatives include distinctively marking Russian-supplied products on supermarket shelves and the use of ‘No Russian goods’ stickers for other businesses. The problem with the supermarket product approach is that, in the few images released, almost everything ends up being labelled. The sticker idea seems to be the bright idea of a local small business person. I suspect these are just symbolic, patriotic feel-good actions rather than effective actions.
Separatism
Jobbick, the far right Hungarian political party, has expressed concerns for the status of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. It has established a charity in Transcarpathia aimed at raising awareness and support for these Hungarians. The Transcarpathian authorities consider Jobbik to be subverted by Russia, aiming to intervene in internal affairs of Ukraine and affect its territorial integrity. Legal actions are being taken against the charity, claiming it is acting in violation of Ukrainian law.
The regional business media repeats the usual anti-Russian propaganda. In particular a report states that Russia plans to use a ‘Yugoslav scenario’ at expense of Transcarpathia. Presumably this relates to the concept of some unspecified form of federalization. This report also mentions that some time ago, a noticeable numbers of people in the region were speaking with a prominent Russian accent. The implication is that these were outsiders sent in to promote the creation of Rusyn-Hungarian autonomy, a form of separatism. One of the leaders, Peter Gecko, is sought by the SBU charged with incitement to infringe on territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Gecko is reported to have been present at the recent meeting in Yalta which focussed on means of expanding so-called “Union of the People’s Republics. The local media report includes a tantalising reference to the Kharkiv oblast. It states that a Kharkiv National Republic was proclaimed on 7 April. This Republic lasted only one day, before it was halted following the arrest by the police of six dozen members of this “Republic”.
The Transcarpathian prosecutor has opened four cases of separatism, one of which must relate to Gecko. There are no details so far of the targets involved in the other three cases. A working group involving the SBU, law enforcement officers and prosecutors has been established. It is tasked with preventing the emergence of separatism. All of this indicates the regime is scared of further outbreaks of separatism, and is specifically trying to suppress the idea of a Republic of the Subcarpathian Rus.
Transnistria
ATO
The pro-regime press and supporters talk of a second front at Odessa, based on presence of about 1500 troops in Transnistria. The troops form part of the post-independence peace keeping mission. They are primarily tasked with guarding the remaining large ammunition and weapon store (reputedly ~ 22,000 tons) at Cobasna. In the face of rising adverse actions from Moldova, the Transnistria authorities have called for a mobilisation within the population. The Transnistria troop strength is estimated to be 4500-7500 including both regular and paramilitary units. The country has a population of about 500,000. Any forces raised by mobilisation will require extensive training and subsequent arming. It should be noted that the ammunition and weapons mentioned above date back to the Soviet period, so the are probably in very poor condition. The idea of this kind of second front is probably not realistic, at least in the short term, as the removal of trained troops would leave Transnistria open to re-invasion by Moldova.
These concerns by the Ukrainian regime had been addressed by placing military units on the coast close to the border with Transnistria. These forces have been moved to the Donbass, in an attempt to reinforce weak points in the front line. This has complicated the plan, probably devised by the US, to use Moldova and Ukraine to totally isolate Transnistria.
Energy
The gas pipelines from Russia to Moldova pass through Transnistria. In an attempt to separate Moldova from Russian influence, via perceived control of the pipeline in Transnistria, a reverse flow gas pipeline has been constructed linking Moldova and Romania. The first phase of the pipeline, partly funded by the EU, has been completed. The price of gas in Romania is 40% cheaper than the price charged directly by Gazprom. It is of no surprise that the US has praised this so-called energy diversity. It suffers from the fundamental problems outlined above, namely a lack of excess supply in Romania and the residual dependence of gas passing through Transnistria.
Politics
A long-running negotiation process aimed at resolving the legal status of Transnistria has the next meeting in Vienna scheduled for 11-12 September. This is described as a ‘5+2’ process. It involves 5 active entities, Moldova, Transnistria, the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine, along with two observer states, the EU and US. These talks broke down in 2006 only to be reinstated following insistence by Russia. The position of the EU, a supposed observer, is illustrated by their support of Moldova, praising it for choosing the path of moving toward the west whilst ‘simultaneously keeping good relations with the east’.
The Transnistria representatives have called into question the forthcoming round. They claim that a number of issues raised as a result of actions by Moldova are not covered by the existing framework. These actions are described as forms of economic, information and diplomatic war. The specific actions include criminal proceedings being initiated against Transnistrian officials, the reuse in Moldova of frequencies allocated for the Transnistrian telephone service and adverse economic consequences arising from Moldova signing an EU Association Agreement.
Transnistria states it is not is refusing to continue the 5+2 talks, rather it has legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. Moldova states that Transnistria is putting forward artificial pre-conditions, which only undermines trust and complicates the process of resolving the legal status of Transnistria.
Sanctions
The actions of Moldova against Transnistria have been balanced by blow-back from reverse sanctions imposed by Russia. These have severely affected the Moldovan agricultural economy. In consequence, Moldova has asked the EU for financial support for its farmers. The robust EU economy will surely have no problems accommodating these additional costs.
Just saw a report that the ukies, US and Moldova were massing for an attack on Transnistria. The US seemed to have send a lot of aid and advisors for this. The ukies have now pulled back their troops and hardly anyone covering the ditch they dug..
Also this is unbelievable but the ukies were planning to take back Crimea. Maybe with Nato’s help.. They used those troops to plug gaps after the breakout of the militia and took massive casualties.
The ceasefire will give choco time to rebuild his forces since the fat lady has not sung yet.. I dont see this ending until the US pulls support.. The hate of the ukie public is too much. The LA blacks dont have this much hate or power and they burnt down the town. The US can keep fanning the flames and strike when it has more assets ready.. When winter is over, the US wont have much time after that. QE3 is already over and it would mean the US economy will tank soon.. Its very very dangerous time right now. Putin caused delays that the US could not afford.. US will do everything to short circuit anyone who is causing the delay.
Hi Saker,
below is the link to a very interesting article, which helps to understand the motives of Poland’s (and not only) involvement in Ukraine affairs. And perhaps also explains why the heavy fighting was concentrated near Slavyansk and why the citizens of Slavyansk disappeared. I am quite new to your blog (which by the way has became one of my favorites), so pardon me, if you have already covered this topic somewhere. I do not see any search machine here.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/polish-death-squads-fighting-in-ukraine-cia-covert-operation/5384210
And another one:
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2014/08/05/bfp-exclusive-stench-of-corruption-a-ukraine-oligarch-shale-gas-civil-war-baby-biden/
Elizabeth
This my first comment. I am glad I have found this website among others.
As I see it and with the knowledge of the mendacity of the western empire I can only say that this ceasefire will be short lived. Since russia (whom I hope knows what it does) plays it’s cards close to the vest it is hard to predict how they will react on the next all out assault, this time aided by the west. Yes, I do hope it is a true truce but i am just to old and to conditioned to see the west and in particular the US do otherwise.
Gregoire
Alien Tech @ 06 September, 2014 14:07 and 14-00 ahem same day on the maybe just maybe blog.
Working hard today, Maybe just maybe comment number 190 @ 14-00 6th September 2014 and then comment number 1 on this blog at 14-07 6th September 2014 ?
Plugging the same message irrespective of subject?
Fast reader and keyboard expert?
Immediate recall of relevant information?
Larchmonter,
Putin may have done all that you mentioned. I suspect so. But no country has an actual dictatorship of one man. Even Stalin, Hitler, or Pinochet had to get a lot of folks to go along with their plans. If those at the top are divided about what to do, and all possibilities have major drawbacks, it is easy to fall back into temporizing measures that never resolve things.
I am confident the Kremlin will not rest till Kiev has a non-hostile regime. They will not permit NATO in, and some deal with the Customs Union will be made. Some day.
However, one can make the case that the Kremlin made a decision to not make a decision, and to always want more negotiations, in the hopes that the oligarchs and various players can agree to something. Maybe this was wise; maybe not. My view is that the American game plan is that a failed state is an acceptable result. Not ideal, which would be to grab the Crimea and blow up Russia’s relations with Europe, but acceptable. We shall see if General Winter or Kremlin tactics are good enough to prevent the spread of a failed state. When has the US failed to create a failed state when it wanted to?
Ahead of the early parliamentary elections, US and Ukrainian regime-change sociologists are becoming greatly worried–(again) only fraud and/or special provocation(s) can conceal reality and save the junta from it.
The popular support for the junta and the war is collapsing–hence the ceasefire is saving for now not only the junta’s troops, but also the junta’s political machine:
“After the steady rise of enthusiasm for war in Ukraine voter polls through the summer, Ukrainian politicians in favor of the military campaign against Donetsk, Lugansk, and Russia, have suffered a DRAMATIC LOSS of support across the country. This was reported in Kiev on September 3. In the first countrywide poll taken since the Ukrainian Army took heavy casualties and retreated from the Donbass at the end of August, voters who had supported the pro-war Radical Party, led by Oleg Lyashko, have dropped from 22.2% to 13.1%. Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk’s bloc, Patriots of Ukraine, which includes the police and national guard minister, Arsen Avakov, has collapsed from more than 9% to 3.7%. Yulia Timoshenko’s Fatherland party has fallen below her former proteges to 3.5%. The Svoboda (“Freedom”) party of Oleg Tyagnibok, the candidate of the US Embassy in Kiev and the State Department, and Pravy Sektor (“Right Sector”), the party behind the national guard formations fighting in the east, have lost virtually all their support outside the far western regions of the country; across the Ukraine they are now polling just 2.5% and 1%.”
The poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) was “independently” (sic) financed and ordered by the US governments, the European Commission, “AND UKRAINIAN OLIGARCHS” (end of quote). So let’s repeat that: the poll was financed “independently” and jointly by the US government, the EU, and Ukrainian Nazi oligarchs.
The polling was carried out between August 23 and September 2.
When the non-voters are taken out of the count–thus leaving out around 50% of the electorate–the KIIS poll reveals that 37.1% will vote for the alliance of Petro Poroshenko, elected president on May 25; Olga Bogomolets, the Kiev doctor known as the “angel of the Maidan”; Vitaly Klitschko, currently mayor of Kiev; and Yury Lutsenko, a politician who has been dividing his time between government posts and prison until he joined Poroshenko’s staff in June.
Also very important and interesting: “In polling during the second half of July, KIIS reported that support for Poroshenko was significantly weaker — running on his name alone, the vote for the bloc then called Solidarity was 11.1%. This trailed …. Lyashko’s Radical Party which drew 22.2%, and Timoshenko’s Fatherland at 17.4%.”
In other words, this poll TAKEN JUST BARELY TWO MONTHS AFTER THE UKRAINIAN “PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,” at a time when the junta was still winning the war, inadvertently reveals the realistic or more true-like actual vote support for Poroshenko who allegedly won in May with more than 54% of votes. HE IS GETTING HERE ONLY 11%!!!, which, indeed, sounds much more like it.
So in the face of collapsing actual political support, the junta either needs to be committed to further electoral fraud (not a big problem) or it could cancel the elections, which do exclude any real alternative to the junta politicians, or to introduce a state of emergency or launch another false flag attack, media/special operation or to score some great military success, after using the current ceasefire to its advantage.
Also note that the Right Sector, which controls together with other Banderite forces, much of the Ukrainian military and the police, remains around 1% in terms of actual public support.
The Party of Regions is politically dead as are the “communists” of Petro Simonenko.
Read more: http://johnhelmer.net/?p=11304#ixzz3CYFCoWmh
A great, big thanks to Saker and ‘Y’ for the SitRep on Transcarpathia and Transnistria. These are total non-stories in the western MSM. Please do keep them coming.
“Y”,
Thank you so much for this information: there’s so much here and the way you’ve organized it makes it easier to comprehend not only what’s going on but how it seems likely to proceed — or at least what to keep looking for as it does proceed.
sigh
I assume you’re not exactly a disinterested party — fwiw, please know you and yours are included in the ever-expanding prayer list chez Nora.
Meanwhile, more not-quite-random headlines in the news strongly suggest this danged war is being fought (and likely won) on many fronts indeed:
http://en.itar-tass.com/:
Sevastopol authorities confiscate Ukrainian tycoon’s assets for debts; Norwegian PM says worsening relations with Russia to cause higher unemployment; Moscow, Beijing universities sign agreement on establishing a joint university; Roscosmos chief discusses plans for GLONASS stations in China; Expert says France will not be able to sell Mistrals to third country; Russian, Indian troops to be trained to fight under city conditions; Malaysia demands independent, open investigation into MH-17 crash; Russia to deliver Sukhoi superjets to Vietnam.
http://en.ria.ru/:
Moscow promises response if new EU sanctions are enacted; Russia, Vietnam take steps toward new free trade zone and currency settlements; Poroshenko refuses to name NATO countries offering Kiev military aid; Slovak PM calls on EU to postpone new sanctions against Russia; Deputy Russian FM states US position on Gaza complicates UNSC discussion on draft resolution; Indian Ambassador states “Our privileged partnership covers every area of human endeavor”.
http://rt.com/news/:
Malaysia ready to present MH-17 crash evidence in court; Russian navy sends flotilla to Arctic to start permanent service at military base; Marine Le Pen blames EU for the crisis in Ukraine; Morsi charged with leaking Egyptian state secrets to Qatar; Sierra Leone to enter lockdown as Ebola death toll tops 2000
Cease-fire not holding? Both TASS and RIA report Claims of Violation
Just In: There is Shelling –
preventing ICRC from distributing humanitarian aid in Lugansk
Despite Cease-fire Defiance;
Itar-Tass reports Militia to release all captives today, Kiev on Monday; Meanwhile, Donetsk sources said Ukrainian forces did not observe the ceasefire
[.]
the eastern region’s Novorossia news agency cited the republic’s Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko as saying.
“Despite ceasefire violations by the Ukrainian military, the militia will release Ukrainian captives. It will happen already today, and the transfer of prisoners of war from the side of Kiev will be carried out on Monday,” he said.[.]
Meanwhile, Donetsk sources said Ukrainian forces did not observe the ceasefire, continuing shelling Donetsk and positions of the Donetsk Republic’s militia near Mariupol.
“None of truce agreements concluded with Poroshenko has been observed. Ukrainian forces continue artillery strikes on Donetsk and its suburbs and do not stop firing in Mariupol,” co-chairman of the People’s Front of Novorossia political movement Konstantin Dolgov told Itar-Tass on Saturday.
The Defence Ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic also reported on Saturday that Gorlovka was under mortar fire overnight. A coalmine was shelled in Makeyevka at about midnight. Fire was opened on the town of Yasinovataya, and Ukrainian troops also fired from armoured vehicle weapons at Donetsk airport.
“Now it is relatively calm in the city,” a defence ministry source said
{.}
Cue up Moar Sanctions on Monday
Russia must withdraw its troops from Ukraine or on Monday there will be Sanctions,
< Threat of sanctions to include Gazprom.
Moscow is prepared to counter.
. . . . .
Got That? Gazprom.!!!!
Freeze or burn the furniture.
In my very humble opinion, the AngloZios keep pushing the envelope overlooking US-led NATO relies on Russia for safe passage to and from Afghanistan. Sanctions are the evidence of failed diplomacy.
In the well connected financial circles there is this view — “what we are witnessing is resource wars in plain sight; Ukraine is where King dollar and NATO meet their demise.”
Mr. Putin still holds all the cards.
= = = =
AM
Now we know why the group at Ilovaysk tried to break out and not surrender to the Russians.
Victoria F. Lee says:
Washington covertly supplies Ukraine with military advisors, beginning with Major General Randy A. Kee. He is officially listed as the Director of Strategy and Policy for U.S. European Command, based in Stuttgart-Vaihingen, Germany.
How did this high caliber American official turn up in Novorossiya, fighting alongside the Kiev junta? President Obama dispatched a convoy of high-ranking men to train the Ukrainian.
Maj. Gen. Allen was shot but luckily survived his heavy wound.
Among the dead was Captain Mark Gregory Paslawsky, a graduate of the United States Military Academy. On August 19th, a fifty five, he was killed fighting the volunteer Donbas Battalion under the nom de guerre “Franko.” in the town of Ilovaysk, near the Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
In the blog it was reported Captain Paslawsky was the only American fighting alongside the Ukrainian army. Seriously? So, how can you explain the death of ten other military men supplied by Washington?
My advise to the volunteers in Transcarpatia would be: get some folks trained, seek professional RF instruction, but hold back and do NOT engage the enemy for now. You are not ready. Learn to bring your views into the info- war. Please save your men until you are prepared!
To the people in Transdnestria I would say: hold your ground an learn to fight the info- war. I think within a year or so, you can become part of Novorossia. And your perseverance (for decades!!!) will be honoured and rewarded. But this winter: be comfortable, but VERY alert. (sorry Saker…).
Of course I don´t know a thing- it is just my impression- from the info I try to collect in Holland, and a sense of purpose. If my comment is too stupid- please rip it apart!
I just saw this tweet by Sleboda:
https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/508303741825851392
According to Ukraine Putsch “PM” Yatsenyuk 1,100,000 regular Russia Army troops have now invaded #LostThePlot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlwMZ2zZVc
To the saker
Thank you for this post at this time. The reminder of the reality in Transnistria screams for attention given the ‘cease-fire’ now in place in Novorussia.
After 20 years what has Transnistria become? Formed in the immediate aftermath of Soviet collapse, it was an embarrassing reminder to Russia of how she abandoned many of her best people. Transnistria was purely the result of local commitment to a cause that many in Russia had abandoned. Transnistria was also the thorn in the side of the EU reminding them that not everyone would sell their soul to the ‘dreams’ offered by the empire.
To its’ credit Russia did not allow Transnistria to be destroyed while western powers were reluctant to prod awake a bear they had so recently anaesthetized. So Transnistria remained a pocket of resistance; surrounded increasingly suffocated on all levels – political, economic, social and even (or especially?) spiritual.
Yet,As mentioned by cassad, a final agreement now would render Novorussia “greater Transnistria”.
While this would solve many of the problems that Putin faces; increasing sanctions, PR accusations, energy sales and transport and buy time for military modernization – it would effectively abandon the people of Novorussia, not to destruction, but to an economic and political ghetto.
If such a fate were only a 3-5 year stage toward full resolution of their fate and status – this could be accepted. Transnistria has been waiting for 20 years.
In the cease-fire agreement that Putin ‘suggested’, there was however one statement that perhaps indicates there really is more envisioned in this settlement than a “greater Transnistria”.
I quote “the Kyiv authorities and representatives of Ukraine’s south-east” agree among themselves on these points…
By not using his word for insurgents, or referring to the Donetsk or Lugansk regions, and instead using ‘representatives of Ukraine’s south-east’ Putin opens the door for other regions not yet at conflict to be included in the negotiations.
Perhaps this is Putin’s solution by which the war-scarred areas can be brought into a federal Ukraine. For those who fought on behalf of Novorussia, they can rationalize the cost and stepping back from full independence by the gain achieved for the other 6 provincial areas.
All this however can only come to existence if there is a credible partner on the other side seeking the same. In this case, given the track record of Iraq, Lybia and most recently Syria; there is little hope. However it appears that Putin continues to try and for that he is not just a great leader, he is a great man.
So far, Russia has managed to respond to all these crisis very beautifully, however, I noticed that all steps taken by the Kremlin were mostly defensive in their nature. Is there a point in which Moscow would start behaving in a more pro-active rather than merely re-active ways?!…Because the wall street demons will keep on biting Russia and they won’t stop until the bear rips their teeth out.
NATO promised precision-guided weapons to be given to the Ukrainian military very shortly, how would it effect the balance of power in this conflict? Would Russia provide something to counteract these weapons?
In other words, I’m feeling very uneasy about this whole ceasefire.
Population of Transnistria (550,000)is made of about 32%Moldavians, 30%Ukraineans and 28%Russian. Applying basic rules of democracy, I don’t see how this region can become part of Novorussia unless double standards will be used and a minority of 28% will rule over the rest.
Anon at 16:30
I think you misread part of Helmer’s report. The relevant paragraph:
The shift in Ukraine voter sentiment has been identified by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS), headed by Vladimir Paniotto. Its polling has been funded independently of the US and Canadian governments, the European Commission, and Ukrainian oligarchs who have sponsored polling by Gallup and by the Razumkov centre in Kiev. For the results of earlier KIIS voter surveys, click here.
The way I read it, anyway, is to be circumspect with Gallup and Razumkov polling.
The info, though, is important and thanks!
I do not know anything about how Gas Pipes are made, but I have thought that of a Method, which could be hopefully faster and cheaper than at present, and if it is not already in use, then I waive any Patent or Copyright, and anyone can used it.
I thought of sheets of flat steel that are curled into a cylinder shape by rolling them around a strong slightly smaller cylinder, and then the sheet that has been turned into a cylinder would the pass through a larger and stronger cylinder that would have rolling wheels in it to keep the almost circular unjoined big sheet of metal a circular shape, and as it passes through that larger cylinder, then a robot or a Human could weld it.
I think that the insider of the new pipe would have to be welded and then machined to be be perfectly circular inside the pipe to lower resistance to the flow of gas, and this would be done by a robot or by a Human.
I think that Russia should build that Pipeline to China as soon as possible, and it could be done with 24 hours a day for every working day.
I think that at certain distances on the outside of those pipes that there should a small pieces of curved metal, where the curve perfectly matches the curve the welded pipe on the outside, and these should be welded to the pipe on the perimeter of the curved rectangular small pieces of metal with dimensions of 30 cm by 5 cm for extra strength to keep the pipe from coming apart
This is of course unless the welds are strong enough to prevent any springing action of the pipe, because it is held into a circular shape by the welding.
We know that Japan has no Natural Resources, and we know it GDP, and I will say that while it is good to have Natural Resources, it is also true that if a Country is totally dependent of its Natural Resources, then they are not reaching the Potential that they could if they both sold their Natural Resources and managed the Rest of their Economy.
I looked at a few Videos on how they make large diameter Oil and Gas Pipes, and it is a longer and more involved process that I had initially thought.
What this means is that Russia and China might consider building more Pipe manufacturing Factories, in order to have the Pipeline to China built as quickly as possible, and if the following additional suggestions on making pipes are not already in use, then I waive any Patent or Copyright, and anyone can used it.
I thought of using a strong and think Template cylinder to wrap the metal sheets of sufficient thickness, and it would be a Template cylinder, which would have a groove running along its length.
The groove is where the curved sheet would join and be welded, and the groove is there so that the once flat sheet of sufficient thickness could not be welded onto the Template cylinder.
It would not matter if this process created slightly oval shaped pipes, as long as all of the pipes where identically slightly oval shaped, even as it would not matter in theory if all the pipes were triangular or squared shaped, although circular or as close to circular pipes as possible are needed because they are high pressure pipes.
If extra strength is needed for the pipes, because the welding alone is not sufficient, then there should be enough curved rectangular small pieces of metal of sufficient dimensions welded to the pipe on the outside perimeter, for extra strength to keep the pipe from coming apart, and that metal would be on the outside of both sides of where the pipe was welded, or it could be larger and go entirely over the outside perimeter of the pipe to give it sufficient strength for use on land.
Perhaps one side of the curbed flat sheet of metal could overlap the other side by 30 cms, and they can be welded on the inside and on the outside of the pipe, much like a sheet of flat paper that has one side overlap the other, and after a few staples where the paper has overlapped, and then that sheet of paper becomes a pipe shape.
After the welding there could be holes drilled though the overlap section, and then many strong bolts for each pipe at the overlap area, possibly tapered bolts to lower resistance to the flow of gas and to give the pipe more strength, and there could be metal pieces welded on the pipe as I have mentioned in this comment for more strength.
The purpose is to make pipes of sufficient quality much faster, even if it is more expensive because of mobile tent Factories
This is because the purpose is to complete the Pipeline to China much quicker in order to Employ People.