by “Y”
Transcarpathia
ATO
Charitable events continue as a means of supplying aid to troops in the east. Returning troops from the 15th Mountain Infantry Battalion of the 128th Brigade have stated the prime need is for diesel generators, fuel, heaters, thermal underwear and winter clothing. Collections and other actions have raised funds of at least 41,000 UAH (~ $3000) for supplies such as canned food, fast food, coffee and tea. A group of Svoboda supporters have provided a Grand Cherokee Jeep for use in the ATO. This was used to transfer supplies to the front. The local regional coordinating committee has been disbanded, and replaced by volunteers, seemingly part of the ‘lustration’ process aimed at removing corruption and giving greater transparency.
The Transcarpathian authorities have applied to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense for funding to supply all military needs, especially winter clothing. The sum of 3.5 million UAH has been transferred to military budgets for the purchase of bullet-proof vests, helmets, military boots and warm clothes for up to 650 people. A further 1 million UAH has been allocated for communications equipment.
The reports relating to troop movements are mixed and confusing. One report notes that 38 security police have been sent to the east with another 8 to follow. Another report states that 50 local riot police officers will depart for the ATO zone to relieve others there. The supposed rotation of Border Guard officers to replace troops from 128th Brigade still has not taken place. The parents of these troops still at the front have started protests, stating they may take claims to the International Court of Justice if the rotation does not happen soon.
Some official casualty figures have appeared. The recent attacks at Donetsk resulted in the death of 7 troops with 9 wounded. A further 200 at least were lost at Ilovaisk. Poroshenko has reported that officially 967 Ukrainian troops have been killed to date. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is reported as stating a further 700 troops and 1700 civilians are held by the separatists.
Officially 24 men from Transcarpathia have died in combat. The losses include one Lieutenant Colonel. four Captains and two Lieutenants, with the remainder a mix of NCOs and soldiers. The most recent fatality has been named – a 43 year old volunteer called Yuri Sokolachko, who served as an artillery spotter for the 128th Mechanized Brigade. The lost and survivors were honoured at a public ceremony in Uzhgorod.
Economy
The economic figures for the cost of the actions in the east are dire. Agricultural productivity to August is down 21.4% compared to August last year. The equivalent losses to July were 13%. The drop in industrial production appears to be a disastrous 97% in August compared to the previous month (i.e. an almost complete cessation of production, if the reports are accurate). Foreign investment to mid year has seen a drop of 75.4% compared to the previous year. Given these figures, the drop in exchange rate for the Hryvnia from 14.9 to about 13 to the US dollar seems surprising. This may reflect the effects of the government clamp down on currency outflow, or more likely, external support for the Hryvnia in order to make things seem better than they are.
Energy
Transcarpathia is important as a focus of gas pipelines between Ukraine and Europe, both for flows westwards, and for reverse flows eastwards that have become essential for Ukraine. There are three main sources of reverse flow, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. The pipelines for these are capable of supplying 23, 17 and 5 million cubic metres of gas per day respectively. The Hungarian reverse flow has ceased in response to Russia’s reduction in forward supply. The Hungarian President has stated that it has to put its own energy needs first. Slovakia has reported a 50% reduction in gas supplies, forcing it to reduce reverse flow. The resumption of supplies from Poland following the resolution of technical problems there will be welcomed by the Ukraine regime, but is of minor relevance given the supply figures above. It may be a sign of desperation that the Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz is reported to have signed a contract with Statoil of Norway for the supply of gas through Slovakia. The details of how this would work and how it would be financed have not been made public.
There is one extremely tiny piece of good news for Ukraine. An illicit small scale oil extraction facility has been detected and fixed. Inexplicable oil leaks were observed near an oil pipeline close to the border with Hungary. It appears that someone had tapped the pipe to extract possibly a few thousand gallons per day. Shoddy workmanship gave their game away.
As reported earlier, Ukrainian electricity exports have been hit. Published figures report a loss of 4.1% in the first eight months of this year compared to last year. This form of presentation of data may average out and mask any sudden dramatic loss arising from the recent devastation in the east.
Mobilisation
Earlier directives from the Ministry of Defense requiring military commissioners of districts, cities and regions to go to the front to relive troops have had no effect. The local commander Colonel Ivan Vasilovich said he has received no orders regarding this, but will comply when ordered to do so.
It is unlikely there will be a fourth stage of mobilisation. Poroshenko has stated that the potential for peace in the east has reduced the need for such actions. The only requirement is to enable rotation of the troops at the front. The third mobilisation in the Beregovo district of Transcarpathia only raised 50% of the eligible candidates. Following this, it has cancelled its planned fourth stage of mobilisation. The stated reasons include the number of protests against the mobilisation and the reluctance of civilians to perform military service. The looming elections probably have nothing to do with this what so ever.
Politics
The main political events are the recently endorsed lustration process and the forthcoming election.
A total of 75 candidates are standing the six electoral districts forming Transcarpathia. The great majority of the candidates are described as ‘self nominated’ rather than representing one of the major parties. A high proportion of these ‘self nominated’ candidates are probably members of Svoboda. Parties associated with Tymoshenko and Lyashko have candidates in all six districts. The party associated with Yatsenyuk has five candidates. The parties associated with Klitschko and Poroshenko have only one candidate each, in the Uzhgorod district. Given the use of ‘self nomination’ to hide political allegiance, these figures may under represent the effective political affiliations. Two candidates for the Pravi Sektor party were rejected by the Election Commission. Their response was that everyone should remember the fate of Yanukovich.
A group of three brothers – the so-called Baloha clan – are standing for election, one each in districts 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust) and 73 (Vinogradov). All are described as ‘self-nominated’. The Baloha brother standing for Mukachevo gets a lot of coverage in the Mukachevo press. He comes out with some memorable quotes. For example, “the only place the Communist Party can speak is in the SBU office”. On plans to create a national army of 150,000 professionals with 500,000 reserves, he asks about the costs and where will the money come from. He is reported as saying “Sorry, friends, but this is called selective Masturbation”. He views Poroshenko as a capable business man, but not a President. Local opinion suggests that two of the brothers will almost certainly win seats.
Hubal, the Head of the Regional State Authority has met with OSCE representatives to discuss the electoral process. He has stated that the main concern is transparency of the elections and that the RSA will not interfere in the process. The OSCE representatives reiterated that they are just observers and have no policing powers. OPORA, an NGO monitoring the process, lists ‘irregularities’ it comes across. These include multiple candidates with the same surname, damage to party billboards, non-compliant advertising and plagiarism of mandate text. The use of ‘self-nomination’ to mask party allegiance does not appear to be an ‘irregularity’.
Poroshenko has finally signed the Lustration Law. The Ukrainian Attorney General has expressed the view that some provisions of the law may inconsistent with the Ukraine constitution and the requirements of international (specifically EU) law. There may be a large number of appeals lodged with the European Court of Human Rights. Lustration enthusiasts have been preempting final acceptance of the law by pressing individuals to resign. Hubal has said the Head of Regional TV should resign, whilst the Head and Deputy Head of the local Health Organisation have already been affected. A temporary replacement has taken over their position.
One problem for the enthusiasts is that the Law does not apply to MPs. Baloha says this allows a fifth column to remain in parliament. His view is that the law needs expanding and candidates should be required to say whether they support the law or not on their ballots.
An alternative view of the ‘lustration’ process is that “Officially, the Law ‘On cleaning power’ is intended to restore trust in government and lay the legal basis for the construction of a new system of government by European standards. Unofficially – it is to gather votes and divert the public from violent economic crisis, the Hryvnia depreciation and political power failures in the Crimea and in the East.”
Other recently reported items of political news include the delay by the EU in processing the Free trade Agreement with Ukraine, which may not happen before the end of 2015. Baloha blames government corruption for the delay in the implementation of visa-free travel to the EU countries. An amnesty for illegally held guns has been announced for October. The stated purpose is to prevent criminals gaining access to these weapons.
Propaganda
At a recent charity event in Uzhgorod celebrating the birthday of the artist Ignatius Roscovich, alongside the usual cake and book stalls was a shooting game for all the family – shoot Putin using a bow and arrow.
In contrast to the usual propaganda about Russian forces attacking Mariupol, the destruction of an elite Russian marine unit near Debaltseve located at the crossroads between Donetsk and Lugansk, and claims of KAMAZ lorries full of ‘Cargo 200’ heading towards Russia, there is an hilariously desperate article about an ethnic Hungarian member of an international group fighting with the separatists against the regime forces in the east.
Separatism
The issues relating to the Hungarian minority continue unresolved. The Society of Hungarian Culture in Transcarpathia is reportedly intending to file a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights over the problems with the boundary of the 73rd district. The Central Election Commission has declined to recreate a majority district for Hungarian interests. A change of boundary of the 73rd district prior to the 2012 election was made in favour of a pro-Government candidate who won. This was at the expense of Hungarian interests.
The charity established by the right wing Hungarian Jobbik party has been declared illegal and the Hungarian MEP Bela Kovacs has been banned from entering the country. An analyst, Professor Sergay Fedak, has stated that the majority of ethnic Hungarians are against autonomy, and are more concerned with the economy and social services. The report gives no clue as to how these conclusions were reached.
A local report linked to a TV program discussing Hungarian and Rusyn separatism. It showed a small demonstration in Budapest where Transcarpathian flags were shown. The commentators stated that it was not known who was behind this. Other sections of the program referred to Petro Getsko, the Rusyn separatist. The style of the program clearly implied that Russian funding and connections were behind the calls for autonomy.
Following the tension about autonomy and the suspension of reverse gas flow, it is not surprising that Nuland has stepped in making comments stating that Hungary is supporting nationalism and attempting a ‘rollback of democracy’. It looks like Orban may have become persona non-grata for the Indispensable Nation®.
Resources
Transcarpathian fragment of Ukrainian patchwork
Ukrainian Armed Forces
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
ATO
The Moldovan MP who visited Donbass has urged the Council of Europe (PACE) to launch an investigation into the war crimes carried out in Donbass.
About 60 people from Ukraine have sought refuge in Transnistria following the actions in the east.
Economy
Work continues on the proposal for an airport at Tiraspol. A commission has been established to look at the costs of lighting, communications and runway upgrades. The main problem however is political. Given the uncertain legal status of PMR, the consent of Moldova is needed before the proposal to proceed to reality.
Moldova is still reportedly not issuing export certificates for PMR goods. In response to a deteriorating economy, the PMR government is proposing to raise excise duties on tobacco, alcohol, some luxury and electrical goods from January 2015.
Moldovan farmers affected the proposed road between Tiraspol and Ribnita have been offered compensation for the loss of use of their land.
Should Moldova proceed with a Free trade agreement with Europe, the PMR government would want to see a separate document covering equivalent relationships with Transnistria.
Figures recently released indicate the significance to the Moldovan economy of the contribution of personal remittances from abroad. The monthly total for August was about $154 million. Of this, 39% came from Russia, 36% from Europe and 25% from the US. These remittances amount to 25-30% of Moldova’s GDP. Therefore, the contribution from Moldovan migrants to Russia is about 10-12% of GDP.
Energy
One of the consequences of the Kiev regime’s actions in the east has been a reduction in coal supply with a consequent reduction in the exportable electricity capacity. Moldova has seen a 20% reduction in electricity supplied from Ukraine. This has been offset by an increased supply from the PMR power station. Moldova imports 90% of electricity with about 60% normally from Ukraine and about 30% from the PMR.
Gagauzia officials have opened discussions of the implementation of a mechanism by which Russia offers first 500 cu m of gas at reduced cost to consumers in Gagauzia. Gagauzia wants the gas pipelines in its territory that are not on Moldovan books to be integrated into a network, allowing it to join the gas market with the Customs Union. The PMR government has stated it is ready to pay market rates for Russia gas subject to the resolution of the economic blockades imposed on it.
Politics
Moldova has issued a demand that Russian peacekeeping troops should leave Transnistria. Ukraine has also placed restrictions on the flow of goods to Russian contingent. Shevchuk, the President of the PMR, states that the tripartite peacekeeping troops should remain in place until the final resolution of the political position.
Propaganda
Shevchuk has stated that claims of buildup of PMR troops preparing for an attack against Ukraine are false. He regards these claims as an attempt by external political forces to organize or to provoke a conflict on the border with Transnistria. PMR has appealed to Ukraine and OSCE to discuss the problem. Shevchuk comments “by a strange coincidence, the OSCE in Chisinau for some reason does not support our initiative. That is strange. If the international organization confirmed the lack of military preparations, I think the tension would be minimised”. He has also reiterated that the PMR has not sent any representatives to the Donbass region.
Separatism
Attempts at reunification of Moldova and Romania may lead to a final goodbye from Transnistria and Gagauzia. Rogozin has been reported stating the Russia will protect its citizens in PMR if Moldova repeats the ‘Ukraine scenario’.
Citizens of Gagauzia have protested recent actions of the SBU. The SBU has arrested a number of young activists based on charges of treason and terrorism. A rally was held, attended by politicians, activists and parents of those arrested. In a poll, 98% of Gagauzians stated Gagauzia should become independent if Moldova reunites with Romania. Some analysts reported in Gagauzian press offer the view that Moscow may recognise the independence of PMR and Gagauzia if Moldova joins Romania. George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania. He stated that it was 5 years too late for Moldova to join the EU. He claims that “Russia is a country in decline. Romania is on the rise” and that Moldovans “need shelter. Europe is an illusion. Russia is weak”.
Resources
NATO eyes Transnistria
More blowback in the offing
Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland
I enjoy these reports.Its interesting to see conditions in other parts of the region on the micro instead of macro level.From what I’ve gauged so far, is that the hopes of an uprising in Transcarpathia are mostly wishful thinking.The region is too split between supporters of the junta and those opposed to elements of it to revolt.Only dire conditions in the war, and involving local people would cause an uprising.But it would still be good for the NAF to hold talks and discuss ideas with anti-junta elements.Just don’t expect real help from them at present.Beyond the possibility of mild sabotage,at best.As for Moldova and Transnistria,that is a more promising area for results.And also dangers.The NATO/Ukrainian plan there is obvious.They intend for all Moldova including Transistria to rejoin Romania as a part of NATO.Even though most of Transnistria was never a part of pre-WW2 Romania.That will give them an added NATO border with Ukraine and eliminate a Russian asset in the region.The question for Russia is how to prevent that.The Transnistrian and Gagauzia’s population being pro-Russian is a big plus for Russia in the situation.But the big prize to be won or lost is the rest of Moldova.And it will need to be done before NATO is able to effect their plans.The coming elections in Moldova might help in that regard.If the polls are correct the pro-Russia opposition is ahead.I would think now, with winter close. Would be the time for Russia to point out the economic advantages a friendly independent Moldova could enjoy with Russia.Low gas prices,and vast increases in trade benefits for Moldovan goods on the Russian market.As well as the possibility of major development loans or grants as well.And for letting NATO know up front that Russia will never allow Romania to grab a hold of Moldova.Slowness seems to be Russia’s worse quality in international relations.Reacting to events after they happen instead of realizing something needs to be done “before” they happen.
Nana2007-
A fascinating report on possible hacked emails of close associate of Kolomoisky at http://slavyangrad.org/2014/10/05/holocaust-in-dnepropetrovsk-style/#more-4117
Hungarians in Transcarpathia and Moldovia may be forced to abandon their homelands and move to the EU. Hungary has given them the option of Hungarian passports which frees them to escape more violent ethnic cleansing efforts
When the credit limit hits the limit, so will everything else. So unless uncle sam can print up a whole bunch of new notes, Europe cant seem to come up with a plan to fleece their own population easily.
Wonder how expensive over draft protection is going to get.
Fedorin also said “the list of (election) candidates includes out-and-out sociopaths, civic activists, second-rate businessmen, career politicians, crooks of all kinds and even major embezzlers of state funds.
Meanwhile, not just international donors have lost confidence in Kiev’s economic policy — domestic depositors have, as well, and are rushing to convert their holdings into dollars. The National Bank has been forced to print more money, further exacerbating the devaluation, and the government might find itself soon enough bailing out the banks with budget money it doesn’t have.
Ukraine is on the brink of committing economic suicide after imposing a crippling 55 percent tax on private gas producers, while parliament prepares to vote on next year’s budget, which aims for a continuation of the same.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Will-Ukraine-Commit-Economic-Suicide.html
George Friedman is an absolute russophobe. In his book “The next 100 years” he argues that Poland will be a future great power whereas Russia and China are poised to decline. Absurd and laughable! Although when this Friedman (isn’t that a jewish name?) promotes the reunification of Moldova with “rising” Romania, caution is called for, because his think tank stratfor is often called “the private CIA”.
best regards
olivier
“George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania.”
Saker, what do you think about George Friedman ?
He wrote a book that Poland (!), Turkey (!?!) and …Japan will become the superpowers of the 21st century and that Russia will be irrelevant because of its demographic problems.
Is he joking ?
Poland and Japan have far worse demographic problems than Russia.
Turkey for now does not have demographic problems and has a strong army for this region (but insignificant compared to the Russian military capabilities. It is ridiculous that it will become a “superpower”. Large parts of this country are and will continue to be economically and culturally very backwards and will remain so.
Poland is a protectorate of USA-EU-NATO and its economic and military strength are a joke compared to many other countries. Millions of Poles immigrate to other EU countries for work (known as the “polish economic miracle”)
And high-tech Japan, is essentially a protectorate of USA. Its military power is restricted by USA and its economic strength is threatened by China’s rise.
Even huge nuclear armed countries like China and India will surely not become superpowers in the 21st century, simply because they have large parts of their population living below poverty levels and they are still economically dependent on the western multinationals for investment (“sweat shops”).
How this clown Friedman claims that Poland-Turkey-Japan will become the three superpowers of the 21st century ????????
Russia is the only country that can challenge the dominance of the USA dominated globalized NWO.
It has one of the strongest militaries of the world, is is not entirely connected to the globalized economy and it retains parts of its sovereignty.
Still, there are many things that Russia has to do. It is still too weak compared to the USSR.
It has to disconnect from globalisation, to rebuild its domestic manufacturing capabilities, to upgrade its military and to regain allies in Europe (like the Eastern bloc countries of the USSR era).
Russia will have to be able to weaken EU-NATO by persuading countries to withdraw from EU (and NATO) and form an (economic and military) alliance with Russia.
Economically depressed countries with highly strategic importance like Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria…
re: Nana2007
My God, if this is all true…….pfff
I searched for Boris Filatov, curious who he is and found this: http://richardedmondson.net/2014/03/17/new-ukraine-official-just-arrived-from-israel-says-hang-scum-later/
Like Kolomoyski also tied to Israel.
There’s a small problem with the Hungarian passports — there’s been a racket going on where, for money of course, just about anyone was found the necessary Hungarian ancestors. As this was the only qualification, people who spoke no Hungarian at all could get the citizenship…and of course many used it just to get into other European countries. So they’re trying to toughen it up without disadvantaging the genuine ones.
Bigger problem is the Hungarian and Rusyn separatism which is taking the form of a Hungarian-Rusyn League which on the occasion of that “small demonstration” you mention, was planning to ask the Hungarian government to agree, in advance, to recognise an independent Rus Republic if/when it becomes a reality. Tnis is based on a 1991 referendum where 70% voted for autonomy. A deeper version of this is a petition, with quite a lot of signatures (I’ll bring it in when I find it again) going a step further, asking Hungary to take over that area. The grounds for that are that it’s better for both areas,and the Rusyns would be happy enough as a minority BUT NOT IN UKRAINE, having been a reasonably treated minority for several hundred years when Transcarpathia was a part of Hungary.
http://mandiner.hu/cikk/20140914_kabai_domokos_lajos_karpatalja_bekavarhatnak_mindenkinek (sorry, you need to Yandex this, it comes out surprising readable).
Victor Orban, on the other hand, in a speech at a school opening at Berevhovo in late September said the most important concern for his government was the safety and well being of the Hungarians in the region. For this reason he would not take political stances or economic moves (eg sanctions) which would hurt them.
Bad enough there is already a reduction in tourism/relative visiting from Hungary, as Ukraine in August removed the Hungarian-friendly governor and replaced him with a Ukrainian nationalist one, resulting in Hungarians having difficulty entering Transcarpathia since the gas reverse flow was stopped. Last thing Orban needs is Ukraine to accuse him of yet again siding with Russia to destabilise Ukie.
Poor little minorities always get caught in the middle.
“George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania.”
Saker, what do you think about George Friedman ?
He wrote a book that Poland (!), Turkey (!?!) and …Japan will become the superpowers of the 21st century and that Russia will be irrelevant because of its demographic problems.
Is he joking ?
Poland and Japan have far worse demographic problems than Russia.
Turkey for now does not have demographic problems and has a strong army for this region (but insignificant compared to the Russian military capabilities. It is ridiculous that it will become a “superpower”. Large parts of this country are and will continue to be economically and culturally very backwards and will remain so.
Poland is a protectorate of USA-EU-NATO and its economic and military strength are a joke compared to many other countries. Millions of Poles immigrate to other EU countries for work (known as the “polish economic miracle”)
And high-tech Japan, is essentially a protectorate of USA. Its military power is restricted by USA and its economic strength is threatened by China’s rise.
Even huge nuclear armed countries like China and India will surely not become superpowers in the 21st century, simply because they have large parts of their population living below poverty levels and they are still economically dependent on the western multinationals for investment (“sweat shops”).
How this clown Friedman claims that Poland-Turkey-Japan will become the three superpowers of the 21st century ????????
Russia is the only country that can challenge the dominance of the USA dominated globalized NWO.
It has one of the strongest militaries of the world, is is not entirely connected to the globalized economy and it retains parts of its sovereignty.
Still, there are many things that Russia has to do. It is still too weak compared to the USSR.
It has to disconnect from globalisation, to rebuild its domestic manufacturing capabilities, to upgrade its military and to regain allies in Europe (like the Eastern bloc countries of the USSR era).
Russia will have to be able to weaken EU-NATO by persuading countries to withdraw from EU (and NATO) and form an (economic and military) alliance with Russia.
Economically depressed countries with highly strategic importance like Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria…
Shale situation worth bearing in mind.
China backs off rapidly after wake-up call and industry reality check on shale. The trend is rolling out worldwide (UK, Poland, US, Ukraine(?))
Some of the problems are outlined by an energy expert here:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/09/10/china-shale-gas-strategy-a-fiasco.html
Here’s an update on the situation (with a roundup of insider opinions):
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85236
In a nutshell, shale looks shortlived, and harder to get at than previously believed (over and above any real or imagined environmental issues).
perhaps I was a robot, perhaps not, soory for inconveneience, but this post is same as previous
Shale situation worth bearing in mind.
China backs off rapidly after wake-up call and industry reality check on shale. The trend is rolling out worldwide (UK, Poland, US, Ukraine(?))
Some of the problems are outlined by an energy expert here:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/09/10/china-shale-gas-strategy-a-fiasco.html
Here’s an update on the situation (with a roundup of insider opinions):
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85236
In a nutshell, shale looks shortlived, and harder to get at than previously believed (over and above any real or imagined environmental issues).
Just a bit OT
They’ve decided to charge 4 top SBU officers for the Maidan shootings…. of course Russia was behind it all
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/nalyvaichenko-four-high-ranking-sbu-officer-in-custody-over-euromaidan-sniper-shootings-366989.html
Hey guys, we know there’s only one letter difference between USSA and USSA but….. east and west, you know? different directions??
I wonder how much extra equipment that’s going to get them?
The Carpatho-Russians in Transcarpathia, northeast Slovakia, and southwest Poland (or historically “Rusins”, mis-spelled for Ukrainian ideological reasons as “Rusyns”) have dreamed for centuries of being part of the greater Russian Empire. This almost became actuality in 1915-1916 with major Russian military successes in World War I. All the this Sitrep material seems to be totally unaware of that aspect of history. They have been a victim of Ukrainian hyper-nationalism since 1945 when stolen from Czechoslovakia. It has not been legal to print a Russian-language newspaper there for 70 years, and YET when I visited Transcarpathia I could converse in Russian everywhere.
Any support from locals to draftees is a Christian duty to the unfortunate, and teh very opposite of political support.
Russia is actively preparing for war
Ben Aris in Moscow
BusinessNewsEurope
September 30, 2014
Russia is actively preparing for a war that nobody wants and that will probably never happen. But its increasingly obvious commitment to real preparations for a potential military conflict with the West have been convincing enough to create trump cards in the diplomatic and sanctions war that has been raging for much of this year. On the eve of the Minsk summit that brought the shaky ceasefire to Eastern Ukraine, the US seemed to cave in.
What was sabre-rattling has become overtly aggressive military actions that are seriously destabilising the whole of the European continent and freaking Nato out. Russian fighter planes have made almost as many incursions this year into the airspace of the Baltic states, all Nato members, than they have in all of the last decade taken together. Russia has carried out the largest surprise military excises it is allowed to, without giving forewarning to Nato under the terms of its treaties with its old nemesis. And Russia has also started military exercises that include moving nuclear missiles about for the first time in two decades.
Nato of course finds all this peripatetic armour extremely unsettling, but it is part of a larger aggressive policy Russia has adopted.
“Putin’s Russia today is ready and willing to go to war. Europe and the West are not ready and not willing to go to war. There is no leadership in Europe or in the world able to stop Putin,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, who lives on what could be the next front in Russian aggression, told the Washington Post in an interview on September 24.
Not just Central European politicians but also military analysts are asking: will there be war? And increasingly the answer is not clearcut. “The slow, ongoing militarisation of the Russian state – not only in a purely military sense, but also economically – socially and politically, which has been observed at least since 2007 – raises questions about its long-term consequences,” writes Polish military analyst Andrzej Wilk of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW).
Despite the economic slowdown, Russian military spending will surge to 4.0% of GDP in 2015 – twice the level that Nato members are obliged to spend – according to the recently announced three-year budget. This compares with 3.5% of GDP in 2014, which was already a rise of more than 10% in real terms to around $84bn from a year earlier, according to Wilk.
Along with the rise in spending is a rise in nationalist rhetoric and propaganda, according to which Russia must fight against the aggression of the West. “The spiral of militarisation which has been set in motion in Russia over recent years has already reached a critical ‘point of no return’: the ruling team in Moscow has become largely a hostage to its own policies.” Wilk warns. “The consequence of the current activities may actually be that Moscow starts a full-blown regular war.”
Long time coming
While the press is now full of reports of Russian military manoeuvres, the Kremlin has actually been ratcheting up its military preparedness for more two years already. As bne reported in its cover story “Cold War II” in March 2013, Russia had already started rattling its sabre to display its increasing unhappiness with Western policies, such as the proposed missile shield initiative in Poland.[…]
Full article
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-russia-actively-preparing-war?piano_d=1
Saker
Bloomberg article about Russia’s 5th column and the infighting between Putin and Medvedev camp.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-05/putin-clans-said-gridlocked-over-arrest-as-sanctions-bite.html
Erika
OT Kat Kan,the difference you see is not apparent.
XbNB
Well serves the west right.
“”The slow, ongoing militarisation of the Russian state – not only in a purely military sense, but also economically – socially and politically, which has been observed at least since 2007 – raises questions about its long-term consequences,” writes Polish military analyst Andrzej Wilk of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW).” my emphasis:that is an anti-Russian source.
All the smaller fracking and oil etc issues aside, for years EU/USA has been trying to seduce/buy Ukraine into the EU/NATO camp, despite agreements to leave her neutral. The clear intent is
* economic damage to Russia by getting outside control of the gas pipes which a big % of exports rely on (customers’ control)
* further damage by using Ukraine as a freeway for cheap EU goods into Russia (relabelled)
* then pulling the rug from underfoot by kicking her out of the Black Sea naval base (can any of you see a NATO country allowing a naval base for a non-NATO country?).
The base lease contract runs out in 2 1/2 years, sure. BUT the “rent” for it was paid with big gas price discounts, so they would have renewed. (That’s why the price has gone up now).
They KNEW Crimea would be taken back, if they tried the EU route without negotiation. No matter, then Plan B was to wreck the economy by frothing at the mouth for world sanctions. Well, two can play that game and they didn’t seem to have thought of that. Russia has every right to rattle a sabre or two after years of being poked in the eye with sharp sticks.
USA’s been spending well over 4% a year for decades. They should look up the meaning of “what’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander”.
Dear The Saker,
In regard to the post titled:
“Anonymous said…
Russia is actively preparing for war – Ben Aris in Moscow
BusinessNewsEurope
September 30, 2014″
I have to say I am rather surprised by Ben Aris who usually seems quite switched on when appearing on RT. Most of his article is utter tosh and seems to be supporting NATO – this great undefeatable army?!
The fact he quotes the Gaurdian and Independent as saying Russian APC’s were crossing into Ukraine with nothing to back it up and despite the OSCE saying this was untrue, makes me think he was an Atlanticist all along. A shame.
He knows nothing about military – that is very clear.
Oh well – the fakes are being flushed out….
Rgds,
Veritas
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/752961
Legitimize Banderites mass murder while banning the Communist Party.
Nice bunch of thugs you got working for you Obama, Merkel.
Will there be a peep about this travesty in the Corporate Western Media.
And what will the Poles think? Enemy of my enemy I guess.
Digraceful
Aside from PMR, Gagauzia is not the only region that is repulsed by the notion of Moldova becoming a part of Romania. Is there a country that has not invaded Moldova yet? Place your bets now on Moldova becoming the 51st State of the USA!
Regarding George Friedman, he’s a total idiot who should be disregarded and/or discounted on anything he has to say. He’s at best anti-democratic, at worst he’s demonic.
The upcoming elections in Moldova should dispel all aspects of Moldova ascending to EU association.
my friend i see that you have regular chapters about gagauzia now.
i would appreciate if you will include some chapters about Chechenia and Daghestan…
Putin is not abandoning Syria.
http://www.sott.net/article/286890-Putin-will-defend-Syria-from-US-plots-regardless-of-encountering-hostilities
Erika
The Orcs are readying for an offensive:
06.10.14 Message from the resident of Kharkov.
“Yesterday, it was necessary to leave Kharkov Donetsk region. Struck something that has not already been almost a month. Entire route is in military technology, and on Izyum train station was a trainload of soldiers to be sent to the so-called zone, ATO. Plus local residents said that on Friday night the whole station square was in military equipment and night advanced to the south.
06.10.14 Сообщение от жителя Харькова.
“Вчера нужно было выехать из Харькова в Донецкую область. Бросилось в глаза то, чего не было уже почти месяц. Вся трасса в военной технике, а в на изюмской железнодорожной станции стоял эшелон с бойцами для отправки в зону так называемой, АТО. Плюс местные жители рассказали, что в пятницу вечером вся привокзальная площадь была в боевой технике и ночью выдвинулась на юг.”
Offensive junta expect today or tomorrow, the troops on the territory of Donetsk Novorossia People’s Republic presented on high alert. Among the signs of impending strike near Donetsk – increased activity of reconnaissance drones, the concentration of mechanized units and the creation of artillery fists, while equipping fortified areas on the secondary directions. The main problem facing the defensive army Novorossia shortage of ammunition for heavy weapons and modern anti-tank weapons. By junta incurred losses in August and September, the superiority of the junta in people and technology no longer is so egregious nature, as in July, but the whole army of New Russia is still inferior to the junta in the size and number of heavy weapons.
@Anonymous 06 October, 2014 13:23
“What was saber-rattling has become overtly aggressive military actions that are seriously destabilising the whole of the European continent and freaking Nato out. Russian fighter planes have made almost as many incursions this year into the airspace of the Baltic states, all Nato members, than they have in all of the last decade taken together. Russia has carried out the largest surprise military excises it is allowed to, without giving forewarning to Nato under the terms of its treaties with its old nemesis. And Russia has also started military exercises that include moving nuclear missiles about for the first time in two decades.”
Considering the geopolitics during 1992 to 2012, what else Russia should have done ? Let’s note the key issues since 1991:
(1) USA and EU countries moved their military alliance NATO to include all central and east European countries as member or as partner
(2) USA pursued development & installation of ABM systems that will render the Russian missiles useless in case of war, that will make Russia defense-less
(3) USA has been trying to wreck Russian economy using the AngloZionist-controlled oligarchy within Russia.
(4) USA has been hell-bent on putting obstacles for Russia to wreck their key business sector of Oil & Gas
If Russia doesn’t prepare for defending its interest, then it must be living in a fool’s paradise. Well, looking back into 1810s & 1940s, the AngloZionist Plutocracy may realize it is they who lives in fool’s paradise.
Straight-Bat
From NetEase:
Two American Universities Announce Closure of Confucius Institutes in the Same Week
Have Americans lost their self-confidence? Following the University of Chicago’s September 25th announcement that it’ll be ceasing its Confucius Institute partnership, Pennsylvania State University announced on October 1st that it would terminate its 5 year partnership with China’s Confucius Institute at the end of the year instead of renewing it.
Reuters reports that this is the second American university to stop its partnership with China’s Confucius Institute this week. Previously, America’s University of Chicago had announced on September 25th that it would terminate its partnership with the Confucius Institute. The Confucius Institute at the University of Chicago was established in 2010.
In response, the Foreign Affairs Ministry responded on September 29th saying that all of the Confucius Institutes in the United States were voluntarily applied for by American Universities; are established through friendly consultations and formal agreements between the Confucius Institute headquarters, Chinese universities, and the respective American universities; that Confucius Institutes provide teachers, teaching material, and such support and help in accordance with the voluntary application by the American side; has never been imposed on anyone; and therefore cannot constitute a threat to a university’s academic freedom or integrity.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 2nd saying the actions of several universities lately reflect their great dissatisfaction with the Confucius Institute, such as the Confucius Institute’s hiring practices and refusal to accept certain negative content and text about China’s history.
The vice president of the American Association of University Professors and chair of the committee that denounced the Confucius Institute said, “I respect the University of Chicago and Pennsylvania State University, and I also believe they will not be the only universities who want to end their cooperation with these value-less institutes (Confucius Institute).”
Attitudes in Ukraine toward Russia, Russians Divide along Regional Lines
http://www.interpretermag.com/attitudes-in-ukraine-toward-russia-russians-divide-along-regional-lines/
Staunton, October 3 – Despite the Russian invasion, approximately half of all residents of Ukraine continue to have a generally positive view of Russia and Russians, but their attitudes vary among regions with those in the predominantly ethnic Ukrainian west having more negative attitudes and those in the more heavily ethnic Russian east more positive ones.
Those are the findings of a poll conducted last month by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology among 2,000 residents of Ukraine and published today by Olga Meshcheryakova on the Novy Region-2 news agency site.
For Ukraine as a whole, the poll found. 14.4 percent of those queried had a very positive attitude toward Russia with 33.7 percent more saying that they had a positive view on the whole. At the same time, 22.6 percent of Ukrainian residents said they had a mainly negative attitude toward Russia, with an additional 18.7 percent saying they had a “very poor” view of Russia.
But the mix in attitudes varied widely among Ukraine’s regions. In Western Ukraine, only 2.9 percent respondents have a very positive view of Russia, although 22.3 percent more have a generally positive one. Some 35.6 percent have a mainly negative view of Russia, and 32.1 percent have a very poor one.
In central Ukraine, 1.9 percent of respondents expressed a very good view of Russia, with 30 percent saying they had a mainly positive one. At the same time, 28.3 percent had a mainly poor one, and 25.6 percent a very poor one. In southern Ukraine, the corresponding figures were 19, 39.8, 17.7 and 9.1 percent.
In Kharkiv Region, 49.3 percent of respondents said they had a very positive view of Russia, with another 30.6 percent saying they had a mainly positive one, according to the poll. Only 19.4 percent had a poor or very poor view of Russia. In Donetsk Region, the corresponding figures were 34.3, 50, 4.5 and 3 percent.
As far as the attitude of Ukrainian residents to Russians is concerned, these regional differences were reflected as well. For Ukraine as a whole, 20.9 percent of Ukrainians had a very good attitude toward Russians, and 53.1 percent had a generally positive one. Twelve percent had a generally poor attitude toward Russians and 5.6 had a very poor one.
Regionally, the corresponding figures were these: in Western Ukraine, 7.7, 57.9, 21.3 and 6.7 percent; in central Ukraine, 9.2, 54, 16.2, and 9.2 percent; in southern Ukraine, 29.6, 51, 7.3, and 2.2 percent; in Kharkiv oblast, 51.5, 39.6, 4.5 and 4.5 percent; and in Donetsk oblast, 37.8, 52.6, 1.2, and 2.4 percent.
(The figures do not add to 100 percent because they do not include the small shares of people who said they had difficulty answering or did not provide an answer.)
Vichy France lives!
Battalion “Azov” strengthened advisors from NATO
06.10.2014 – 19:43
Punitive battalion “Azov”, formed by supporters of national socialism, reinforced by advisors from NATO countries. As informed by the Agency Voenkor.info announced at a press conference the representative of the command Stepan Sereda.
“It’s no secret that the battalion was reinforced by highly qualified instructors of foreign States who have passed the NATO school and the French Legion, ” he said. Apparently, Sereda was referring to the Foreign Legion of the French army.
According to him, advisors organized a highly efficient system for training soldiers of the battalion.
Note that the battalion “Azov” plays an important role in the defense of Mariupol is the most important for Kiev strategic object in DND.
#Everyone
I include things that I think are relevant and significant. Like Saker, I do not necessarily agree with all or even most of the sources that I refer too. That applies even to the specific links in the resources. I prefer interested people to read them and form their own views. Maybe I should include an explicit statement to that effect a the beginning?
As a specific case Friedman is obviously a connected US insider. His statements that Russia is weak etc are clearly total bs, as is almost anything and everything that comes out of the mouth of any US agent/representative. Nuland’s comments about Orban rolling back democracy are a prime example. It reminds me of Humpty Dumpty:
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
Thanks again to everyone who reads the posts, and especially to those offering criticism / requests.
the ben aris article puzzled me too. nice analysis, veritas! The Merkel statements are interesting, especially in the spotlight of latest Biden remarks (I mean Joe, not Hunter;))
Anunnaki, you wrote a nice quatrain, just switch around some words an it rhymes:
…mass murder
…Obama, Merkel
…CorpWesternMedia
…enemy of my enemy
you are right, it’s disgraceful.
Please, Saker, don’t expand to Chechnya and Dagestan or I get depressed…
Nana2007
The emails are very interesting. The oligarchs are blatantly using the gung-ho Nazi wannabe’s to do their dirty work for them. If only these crazies could see that they were being used, that their actions in the east solve one problem for the oligarchs and that their death solves another.
There is an interesting essay behind the interaction of Israel, the oligarchs, Ukraine, Europe and Anglo-Zionist aims if anyone has the time and inclination to follow it up.
Dear carpatho-russian
You are quite correct in your statement regarding the content of the sitrep. When I first started this sitrep, I asked The Saker to make it clear that I do not claim to be an expert on this subject. My intent is to give details on where we are, rather than how we got there. Given the complex historical background of this region, I don’t feel I could do justice to the intricacies of it.
If you had the time to do so, I would be very interested in reading your work. Whilst I do not presume to speak for him, I know that The Saker is open to suggestions for articles to be published on his blog. If you are interested, run it past him and see what he says.
In response to Anonymous at 02:55
I must say I’m surprised at your comment of ” Russia will never allow Romania to grab a hold of Moldova”. For your information, Moldovans were always Romanians. The country has ethnic minorities, correct, but the Moldovan majority was always Romanian.
And what if, freely and willingly, just like the people of Crimea in March, they wish to unite with Romania? Still a US/NATO conspiracy to subvert Russia?
Not everything people do is evil, my friend. If they genuinely wish to unite with Romania, so be it then.
And in regards to the protection of ethnic minorities, Romania has an outstanding record of protecting such rights.
And for the record, yes, I’m a Romanian. and not entirely happy with what happened in Transnistria in the early 90s.
Kat Kan and the various Anonymi
Thanks for expanding on the details and implications of some of the points raised in the sitrep. I think one could write 6-9,000 words to include all the details and implications, but then no one would read it!
There is a big multi-actor balancing act going on, with several national leaders trying to balance the real interests of their country against the expectations of others and more importantly, the demands of the US. It is quite clear that the US government has no qualms about destroying any leader who opposes them, taking the country down in the process if necessary. Was it Cheney who said the US way of life is not negotiable? Whoever, it was clear that they meant the life of the insiders as the have no concern for ordinary Americans beyond their exploitation and acquiescence.
Straight-Bat
Russia may be doing some very important things militarily. This article covers developments in diesel-electric submarines and long range (1500 km reportedly) cruise missiles capable of being launched from torpedo tubes and other compatible naval launchers.
A 1987 treaty limits land based missiles to 500 km, but says nothing about sea-borne missiles. Subs and naval ships carrying these missiles, based in the Caspian and Black Sea, would cover Europe as far west as the Poland/German border, the minor Baltic States, most of Italy and the Mediterranean east of it, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, northern Saudi-Arabia, most of the Persian Gulf, Iran. That covers a lot of US military assets.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/obama-threatens-more-sanctions-against-zimbabwe-over-russian-platinum-deal
And all the talk centers around Putin’s aggression. Obama is such a sore loser
So will the “ceasefire” end with a junta invasion tomorrow
Several sites have thought it would happen this week. Pol pot Shenko’s campaign starts with the tanks rolling in
Good luck NAF!
@ Y: 06 October, 2014 21:09 –
Thank you for the very interesting piece of information on ‘Putin’s Surprises’ in the link.
Hope, after securing Black Sea and Caspian Sea, Russia will do the needful in Baltic Sea as well. Also, Russia needs to design the plan-of-action in case of war, on how to tackle the ABM using asymmetric warfare concept.
I do believe, even if the AngloZionist Plutocracy leading USA and NATO, try hard to dismember and destroy Russia and China by
(a) ‘containing’ and wrecking their economy and trade
(b) using Wahabi fundamentalists to create internal disturbances
(c) surrounding them with hostile regimes in border states
(d) mobilise ABM, Naval Fleets, and Fighter Squadrons with quantitative advantages,
finally Russia and China will qualitatively defeat the evil plan of action of AngloZionist.
Straight-Bat
“hroerekr said…
In response to Anonymous at 02:55
I must say I’m surprised at your comment of ” Russia will never allow Romania to grab a hold of Moldova”. For your information, Moldovans were always Romanians. The country has ethnic minorities, correct, but the Moldovan majority was always Romanian.
And what if, freely and willingly, just like the people of Crimea in March, they wish to unite with Romania? Still a US/NATO conspiracy to subvert Russia?
Not everything people do is evil, my friend. If they genuinely wish to unite with Romania, so be it then.
And in regards to the protection of ethnic minorities, Romania has an outstanding record of protecting such rights.”
First Moldova belonged to the Russian Empire before the Kingdom of Romania took it over after WW1.And while ethnically Moldovan’s are the same as Romanians they are heavily Russianized.And there are large Russian speaking,Ukrainian,and Gagauz,and I believe Bulgar as well minorities there.And no, Romania doesn’t have a great record of dealing with its minorities.It has a horrible record with minorities.The Hungarian and Bulgarian minorities in particular.If you look at the map you’ll see the Pruth makes a natural boundary for Romania.There is no way Russia or the Transnistrians would agree to the Transnistria region going to Romania.And probably Gagauzia would secede.That would leave a twisted messed up border for the rest.And make certain trouble because of that.So its best that that issue not come up to cause more trouble.
@ anonymous regarding Moldova and its history. check Principality of Moldavia if you want to be more accurate about things and see why the majority speak Romanian there.
The attacks on Confucius Institutes just show that the war-frenzy is growing in the USA. Anyone who believes that the rulers of the USA would hesitate for an instant to launch a generalised war in order to avert China’s rise to global economic hegemony needs their head read. I’d expect that the Jews, China’s most implacable enemy (because they will never subvert and control China the way they do the West and are proceeding to do in India) would be behind this hate-campaign.
Moldova is one of the most fertile fields for Israeli organ-traffickers. They won’t want their business model interfered with. reeks of ‘antisemitism'(TM).
Moldova is one of the most fertile fields for Israeli organ-traffickers. They won’t want their business model interfered with. reeks of ‘antisemitism'(TM).
A little Googling reveals that a driving force behind the anti-Confucius Institutes hate-campaign is one Marshall Sahlins, one of the ‘Treasured Nation’ that we all admire so unreservedly.
NOVORUSSIA IS Difficult problem for Russia like the Gordian knot, but great leaders solve it with simple way as Alexander the Great, lifting the sword and cut the knot.