Pepe Escobar posted with permission and cross posted with Consortium News
(written before Trump’s Speech)
President Donald Trump will de-escalate the crisis with Iran when he speaks to the nation at 11 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, a U.S. intelligence source has told me.
Last night Iran retaliated for the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani with missile strikes on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. So far there have been no casualties reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the ballistic missile strikes launched from Iran completed Tehran’s military action.
Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.
We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.
— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 8, 2020
It is now up to Trump to determine whether the crisis will continue.
A top U.S. intel source sent me this analysis in response to a detailed question:
“It is most unlikely Trump will escalate at this point, and this could provide him with the opportunity to leave the Middle East except for the Gulf States. Trump wants to get out. The fact that Israel would be hit next by Iran [as promised, among others, by the IRGC as well as Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah] will probably cause them to pull back, and not order Trump to bomb Iran itself.
“DEBKA-Mossad acknowledged that Iran’s offensive missiles cannot be defended against. Its secret is that it hugs the ground going underneath the radar screens.” [the source is referring to the Hoveizeh cruise missile, with a range of 1,350 km, already tested by Tehran.]
“What is amazing is that Iraq has allowed US troops into their country at all after seeing over a million of their people murdered by the US if we include the 500,000 dead children [during the 1990s, as acknowledged by Madeleine Albright]. The royals in the U. A. E. told me that this is because Iraq is more corrupt that Nigeria.
“The key question here is what happened to the Patriot Missile Defense for these bases who were on high alert assuming this is not similar to Trump’s missiles hitting empty buildings in Syria after the chemical false flag operation. I saw no report that any defense missile was working, which to me is very significant.”
Judd Deere, the deputy press secretary of the White House, confirmed on Tuesday night what I had learned earlier from another source. The White House said Trump, in a phone call, thanked Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for “Qatar’s partnership with the United States”, and they discussed Iraq and Iran.
According to my source, who is very close to the Qatari royal family, Trump actually sent a message to Tehran via the emir. The message has two layers. Trump promised sanctions would be cancelled if there were no retaliation from Tehran (something that Trump simply wouldn’t have the means to assure, considering the opposition from Capitol Hill) ; and there would be de-escalation if Tehran came up with a “proportional” response.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif described the Iranian missile strikes as a “proportional response”.
That may explain why Trump did not go on TV on Tuesday night in the U.S. to announce total war – as much as neocons may have been wanting it.
Details are still sparse, but there’s ultra-high level, back room diplomacy going on especially between Iran and Russia, with China discreet, but on full alert.
There’s consensus among the Axis of Resistance that China has a major role to play, especially in the Levant, where Beijing is seen in some quarters as a possible future partner ultimately replacing U.S. hegemony.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has just been to Syria and Turkey this week. And according to Russian sources, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is making clear to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Russia’s stance that there should be no escalation.
Scott Ritter: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/477759-iran-missiles-subdued-us-strike/
“First and foremost, Iran communicated its intent to strike US targets in Iraq directly to the Iraqi Prime Minister a full two hours prior to the missiles being launched; Iraq then shared this information with US military commanders, who were able to ensure all US troops were in hardened shelters at the time of the attack.”
“From the US perspective, the results were sobering. The Iranian missile attacks resulted in no casualties among US, Iraqi or coalition forces stationed in either Al Asad or Erbil. But the lack of lethality, however, is actually Tehran’s way of proving the accuracy of its ballistic missiles.”
“Iran also fired five additional missiles at the US consulate in Erbil; US commanders on the ground said that it appeared Iran deliberately avoided striking the consulate, but in doing so sent a clear signal that had it wanted, the consulate would have been destroyed.”
“Trump had previously promised a massive retaliation should Iran attack any US personnel or facilities. Surrounded by his national security team, Trump had to back down from that threat…”
Don’t be celebrating too soon or counting your doves before they are hatched.
Escobar’s “top US intel source” could be feeding him disinformation.
The USA is now actively planning on what new sanctions to impose on Iran.
And sanctions are a form of economic warfare/terrorism.
And there is talk about getting NATO involved.
This is not “de-escalation.”
This is merely a tactical re-calibration of the War on Iran–likely involving so-called “hybrid war” tactics.
Indeed, the assassination of General Soleimani was merely an escalation of the ongoing hybrid war that America has been waging against Iran for years.
Soleimani assassination only one of many (and not the most consequential) US acts of war against Iran
https://gowans.blog/2020/01/05/soleimani-assassination-only-one-of-many-and-not-the-most-consequential-us-acts-of-war-against-iran/
War is the lifeblood of America Empire.
It cannot live without war–much like a vampire cannot live without sucking the blood of its victims.
America Has Been At War 93% of the Time – 222 Out of 239 Years – Since 1776
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41086.htm
Pepe’s “source” is not a guy on the street corner. It’s a source he trusts, and the source would not abuse the trust to feed him crapola. That negates using Pepe to release information that “some people” want released.
This is a big boys’ game, way over your head, apparently.
Both sides want ‘the facts out’ and no ambiguity. Thus, they source the state of things and people with connections like Pepe get to publish it.
Sy Hirsch has built his career on the deepest sources.
Usually, sources are very realistic people who don’t want war or more war or needless deaths and destruction.
Everything Pepe has transmitted makes total sense. To adults who understand the game.
Are economic sanctions (siege warfare) considered war by you or other vaunted intel sources?
Iran’s Leadership Must Decide ‘If They Want Their People To Eat’ – Pompeo
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2018/november/09/irans-leadership-must-decide-if-they-want-their-people-to-eat-pompeo/
How about cyberwarfare like the Stuxnet virus that America and Israel created and deployed against Iran several years ago?
Snowden Says Israel, U.S. Created Stuxnet Virus That Attacked Iran
https://www.haaretz.com/snowden-israel-u-s-made-stuxnet-1.5293165
How about sponsoring terror groups or separatist insurgencies like the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), Jundallah (Balochi separatists), or Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA) against Iran?
Trying To Exploit Iran’s Diverse Ethnic Population To Advance A War Agenda
https://lobelog.com/trying-to-exploit-irans-diverse-ethnic-population-to-advance-a-war-agenda/
How the US Uses the “Leftist” MEK for Soft Aggression Against Iran
https://www.mintpressnews.com/how-the-us-uses-the-leftist-mek-for-soft-aggression-against-iran/252259/
America has been waging war against Iran for years.
Just because the USA did not immediately retaliate in response to Iran’s (symbolic) attacks on US airbases in Iraq does not mean the USA is now suddenly going to sincerely de-escalate and embrace peace.
That idea is either wishful delusion or disinformation.
At best, you will see a temporary lull to re-calibrate America’s war on Iran.
The United States of Oceania is at war.
Indeed, it has always been at war for its entire murderous history.
You switched topic from diplomacy to war.
As for sanctions, from any nation onto another, sanctions are illegal.Only UNSC sanctions are legal. However, the Hegemon’s power is such that economic sanctions are impossible to stop. Vassal nations fear the Hegemon and help enforce them. Sanctions coerce everyone.
What is coming is enough multi-polar coordination among strong countries like Russia, China, India and Iran to work together in an effort to break the sanctions’ effects.
But it will take more years before we see the sanction regimes from the US fail to work. The economic power of the US in banking, finance and investment is just too strong for secondary nations (not sanctioned) to oppose the US. Even China dares not invest in Russia’s Crimea nor does it work all transactions in non-US dollars. Both are concessions to sanctions on Russia.
Is it War? It’s one form of hybrid war. It doesn’t equate to kinetic war. But it certainly can devastate a vulnerable country as certainly as massive aerial bombardment.
Sanctions are imperial weapons meant to conquer a nation’s will. They are a direct attack on a nation’s sovereignty.
> Sy Hirsch
… very funny! But this isn’t:
> This is a big boys’ game, way over your head, apparently.
… and, as you seem to believe it’s not over your own head, do you consider yourself one of the “big boys”? Really, why are you such a patronizing a… sometimes?
Exasperation with bozos who have nothing to say or have it wrong but post it anyway. Especially those who use “Anonymous”.
They don’t get what the Vineyard is. So, whack-a-dope!
I cherish 99% of the commenters. And then, the others, when deserving, get my sideswipes.
Qatar’s Royal Family?
Could this be the same Bank where Hillary Clinton keeps her “Clinton Foundation” fortune of $5 Billion USD in Euro’s? Could this be the “Bank of Zionism”, and they’re giving out closely held ‘secrets’ on the Deal of the Century?
Trump’s kills the most important man in Shia world, and its no big deal, just tell Iran to drop a few insignificant bombs, and the sanctions will be cancelled? WTF? They just raised the sanctions on Iraq. The sanctions everywhere are only going one direction “MOAR”, this is because this is all that the JUSA has.
Lastly, note that Nobody here ever discusses the real deal, and that deal is the 100’s of Billions that China/Russia are investing right now in Israel. To make Israel the “Greater Israel” in finance and military power of the region, something that the USA has gone nutz about.
Greater-Israel may not take over the land-mass of Iran, but it sure as hell is going to be most powerful regional center of MENA, this is because the Ashdod Port will be the biggest & deepest port in the world, and Israel’s entire Navy will be protected by the Chinese Military Air-force.
Heard somewhere they were radar jamming missles and so are undetectable until in site.
The us government had 3 options.
1. Retaliation/escalation – that was not likely because even the dimmest bulbs in the White House know what kind of shit show that could turn into.
2. Deescalation/ Begin to withdraw from middle east. Also unlikely as this would be seen as weakness.
3. Do nothing/ maintain status quo. This is what seems to be happening. This shows Iran who the us really is. The us cannot afford to look weak and cannot accept real casualties.
It seems to me that the game goes on until the us government forgets this lesson and does something else foolish and provocative or can simply no longer afford to maintain an occupying force in the middle east.
Exactly, and the more they stay the higher chances of random PMF/XYZ/false flag random attacks with American casualties and then we’re back on the escalation path. I see no evidence whatsoever of the Empire willing to withdraw from Iraq or Syria, even if Trump personally wanted to and conveyed the message to Iran. I think that if there’s radio silence from the Empire on withdrawal for another week there will be a lot more small scale attacks coming.
And please, I don’t want to hear again that it was all Trump’s 52D chess all along. It seems like he was fooled (the fool he is) into the murder decision and now he realized he had been, so he’s trying desperately to de-escalate (but he was too much of a fool to do it properly).
“It seems like he was fooled (the fool he is) into the murder decision”
The more likely alternative is that they killed Soleimani and Trump was forced to take the credit and be “presidential”.
Just imagine what it would have been like if he disclaimed responsibility!
The reality is that others control the armed forced of the USA
Trump says ‘Iran appears to be standing down’ following missile strikes – live
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jan/08/iran-trump-news-today-live-latest-updates-attack-us-base-iraq
Sorry, Pepe, I have to call bulls**t on the fundamental premise that with the current administration the Empire can do ANY diplomacy. Diplomacy entails cutting deals and then sticking to them, and it’s obvious they don’t have the capability to do either.
Sorry, diplomacy is any form of communication to arrange a relationship or conduct a transaction. Trump is a deal maker. He wants to create a new nuclear deal with Iran. Iran wants to get out from under the sanctions. Both goals require communication. How that develops requires diplomatic exchanges. Facts reflect that the US is in a superior position and Iran cannot improve its inferior position. But that was the case before JCPOA, and Iran did alright in that negotiation.
It will take some time for Iran to come up with a counter offer Trump can say is his victory. He has to be seen as the winner in his eyes. All Iran needs is the end of sanctions.
Maybe Iran has leverage they haven’t played yet which can pressure Trump to give in. What those items of leverage are is not known as yet.
But, Trump and Iran have never talked before directly. However, they just worked out a “standing down” together, using diplomatic back channels and signals with no ambiguity. That’s a pretty good start for some more talking.
Talk comes first, dealing follows.
Don’t we all know that the US is agreement incapable?
Right. And the deal could be made with an ironclad guarantees backed up by Russia and China.
“All Iran needs is the end of sanctions”
Iran is a wealthy country with many talented people. The only thing that they really need to import is grain. That they can get from Russia via the Caspian even if Hormuz was closed. The population is largely in the north anyway.
With cheap energy, minerals and smart entrepreneurial people, nothing else should be in short supply. Iran is like Russia but on a smaller and poorer scale.
All the Iranian government needs to do is to stop meddling in all business transactions at a national level. That is the real problem. All Iranians think that the way to get rich is to speculate in urban property. That has to stop. In fact, it is very easy to stop if they really wanted to.
The leverage Iran has is blocking the Strait of Hormuz and blow western finance to smithereens. Appropriate countermeasure to economic sanctions.
Pepe mentioned this as the only way for Iran to hit where it hurts. I agree. It would be the end for the Empire.
Exactly.
The one thing the US excels at is making and breaking agreements. The Psychopaths in charge have no conscience, morality or honor so dealing with them expecting them to honor the agreement is futile.
Unless there is a bigger bully to smack them when the cheat, they will cheat. Making any deal with them is pointless unless there is some enforceable penalty mechanism.
I agree. Killing Soleimani was “beyond the Pale”. The Americans cannot take this back. Iran would be incredibly stupid to trust any agreement with such people. Who knows what is going on behind the scenes? What we do know is that Trump promised to bomb 52 sites in Iran if the Iranians did anything. The Iranians did something…crickets. Maybe it’s the quiet before the storm and those sites will be attacked when America is ready. Or maybe they are backing down because they realize the bad position they are in.
A historical perspective: the US lost 50,000 men in Vietnam which sent the entire country into a decade long trauma. Today there are 65,000 military personnel all within range of Iranian rockets or attacks from Iranian allies. Did someone at the Pentagon just do the math? Or perhaps someone on Wall Street pointed out how dead the global economy will be if it’s total war?
Ironic that America’s goal has been to isolate Iran, yet, after murdering Soleimani, it is America which is isolated. Did that just dawn on Trump? How long will that have a bearing on his decision making? Who knows which faction will be whispering in Trump’s ear tomorrow?
Iraqi militias will begin attacking US bases. Either the Americans will run or they’ll bomb Iran. It might be as simple as that right now.
The fact that Israel would be hit next by Iran [as promised, among others, by the IRGC …] will probably cause them to pull back, and not order Trump to bomb Iran itself.
Thanks Pepe. That says it all.
I had commented in an earlier thread that Israel was not too worried about Hezbollah, reason being it is counting that the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (with substantial numbers from Nato — France, Spain, Italy) would help protect it. The direct threat by IRGC probably changed minds in ‘the only democracy in the ME.’
@Stand Easy: “That says it all.”
That says only the half of it. The complete message read: We shall destroy Haifa _and_ Bahrein. Rothschild’s ME oil company called Bahrein is just as precious to them as their little prestige project called Israel. Bahrein also, I believe, docks some expensive naval hardware for NATZO “power projection”.
Correction: Dubai not Bahrein. Here is the correct reading of “the other half”:
kapimo on January 08, 2020 · at 7:54 pm EST/EDT
It looks like (to be crosschecked) up to the last minute the americans were raising their flag and threatening to reply to the Iranian salvo, up to when the Iranians said: “If you dare respond to our shelling, we will destroy _Dubai_ and Haifa.”
https://www.stalkerzone.org/iranian-symphony/
Looking at the satellite images of the base and the damage caused, I think some Western commanders may have pointed out that the missiles hit dead center of the targets. Not withing a few meters but dead center.
With that kind of accuracy and the threat to hit Israel, I think the Donald just got told to shut up and stop making asinine threats. Israel probably does not want the world to see exactly how effective or ineffective Iron Dome is. Several hundred missiles could do some serious damage to Israel. If the Dome is much less effective than claimed (an almost certainty), the last thing Israel wants is to show that to its enemies.
Some folks have brought up the Samson option. I’d like to see the bluff called. I don’t want anyone to die but if being held hostage is the price, it is too high. If Israel did do the Sampson thing, they would be guaranteeing the extermination of the Jews, guilty or not. Not that I think Nutty really cares about anything but his own survival.
What Pepe said makes perfect sense since Iraqi prime minister said that the attack by Trump was over a recent deal he made with China, that Trump was angry at him and the attack was to try to keep Iraq on a short leash. In other words the attack wasn’t about Iran, it was about Iraq–so it makes sense that Trump welcomed Iranian leadership coordinating their response with the US. This goes into the details of the US desperately trying to keep Iraq under control by the recents attacks: Pax Americana: Between Iraq and A Hard Place
It’s been said that the US is “non-agreement capable”, and that’s true, however, they do abide by agreements when it’s in their favour. Of course, when they feel the odds have once again turned, they break the agreement.
So, if what Pepe’s source is relaying is true, then an agreement is in both sides’ best interests for now. Down the track, there may be a shift in the overall balance of the equation. I’m sure this is what Iran and its allies are all hoping/waiting for, that in time we’ll inevitably see the weakening and final stumble, then fall, of the Hegemon.
If Trump doesn’t escalate he has meekly submitted to Lavrov. He is therefore a puppet of Russia and Russiagate was true after all. The madness continues.
Wot? Is this true?
From Sputnik:
“US Ambassador Kelly Craft wrote a letter to the UNSC on Wednesday, saying that the United States stands “ready to engage without preconditions in serious negotiations with Iran,” media reported.”
Looks like somebody blinked but dunno if Iran’s going to give Trump the time of day.
https://sputniknews.com/world/202001091077985502-us-tells-un-it-stands-ready-to-engage-without-preconditions-in-negotiations-with-iran/
This has been tried so many times only to find the United States walking in, or sending envoys with a list of demands. What did Trump start with in his speech yesterday? A big fat statement that Iran will not have nuclear weapons (which so far they did not want) while Trump is president. Do you not think this is a pre-condition? I mean the whole JPCOA was predicated upon Iran not building nukes and then Trump walked from it. He did not try to negotiate, or to seriously assess the agreement, no, he walked and slammed sanctions and then sanctioned everyone that wanted to stay in the JPCOA framework.
Iran is not going to negotiate while the sanctions regime is operative in my view. Not saying there will not be back-room talks, but nothing formal and public until sanctions are gone. Iran is busy, very busy overcoming the sanctions regime to take this sword out of the hand of Uncle Sam – just like Russia did and now the sanctions have less of a bite.
A speculative framework for recent developments;
1. After Iraq concluded the agreement with China, US needed boots on the ground in Iraq to protect ‘their’ oil revenue.
2. US propaganda had been directed at Iran being the bad guy – not Iraq.
3. Soleimani’s assassination would tie Iran to what ever US needed done in Iraq to protect oil revenue. i.e. we are spending tax payer $ and lives to fight Iran in Iraq.
4. Other intended objectives may have been to send a message to Mahdi (having been previously threatened) and to stop Soleimani+Mahdi collaborating to resist US. Maybe, to also block Saudi-Iran rapprochement. (Alleged Suleiman’s diplomatic mission)
5. Law of unintended consequences takes over from the clowns ..
“What is amazing is that Iraq has allowed US troops into their country at all after seeing over a million of their people murdered by the US if we include the 500,000 dead children [during the 1990s, as acknowledged by Madeleine Albright].”
Not amazing. The Godfather of U$ Protection, Al Capone of Chicago (Obomba Obombast’s home town), correctly observed: “You can do more with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone”.
The only thing that can stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun; good men like Dr.Assad, President Putin, Rev.Nasr’Allah and the Iranian Leadership. The time has come for the good people of Irag to man their guns.
China is moving into Iraq with deals: https://twitter.com/TomtheBasedCat/status/1215172376318697473
http://www.dinardaily.net/t88930-iraq-china-launch-oil-for-reconstruction-agreement
Iraq, China launch ‘oil for reconstruction’ agreement
After the latest debacle the US planners must be having fits.
A short video (what does Aïn al-Asad look like?) of the Iranian missile landing on the American, is now available at:
http://french.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/09/615651/Riposte-du-CGRIlUE-accuse-lIran
No war?
God Willing!
I’m sorry but I’ve been saying for years that every last Neocon in Washington should be rounded up and hanged for treason on the Capitol Lawn with PBS invited to broadcast from the historic occasion.
Hmmmm… assuming Pepe’s source is legit and in the workings…
Unfortunately we still cannot rule out all the private american ‘private contractors’ working outside of don’s POTUS power.. and we have seen that many times before… whether FF or real
Any faction, even inside iran, can turn, if they think its their time to ‘shine and take profit’, even if they are a small group of 20 merry men operating from the caves…
Thats why they who murder of Iran general is stupid beyond F*ed… and they obviously did not learn anything from the last one – killing Saddam
The fraction and splinter group in ME has just gone worst and everyone is ‘red flag’ destined (so now they can officially carry out all kind of ‘task’ whether for iran or their personal glory). And when will they slip into USA, don? Never thought about that? what if ten thousand little explosion just got registered in any and all 52 states all year round? for the next decade? What kind of life would the average american be? If you need a example, see EU and their refugee ‘entitlement’. I will stop here… its not my intention to scare you or cause any depression eps on anyone… but what your potus don is saying (or lying) and doing and all your MICs – you should know in a normal justice world, is war crime. Somebody, and there are many factions and sub-factions are doing their thingy to get (or pre-book) a piece of the ‘yardsale’ while the pie is baking hot… So we are back to the Strongman true and tested doctrine – that is unless Rus and Chi show up in the ME region, with toys, thus they become the ‘saviour’ and target, the merry-band of men are going to ‘discover’ the rest of the world – they have nothing to lose since they have nothing (its all be sanctioned by USA)
We need to think BIGGER, MUCH BIGGER, MUCH FURTHER ALONG, dear friends!
p/s thanks pepe and all the great commenters here :)
If you are keen to find out more on the money side of the story inc possible USD’s future
Fed Losing Control as Gold Breaks Free | Alasdair Macleod
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvpeqs2dhUw
You can joint the dots and formulate your own understanding and assessment of the world situation,
taking into account this recent Iran unfortunate event and its projected implications,
and with all that – where will the US gov get the money now?
And if they fail, what will (or rather shold) happen then?
How much time do you have if they officially announce they fail?
My outlook has been pessimistic (for a long time now)
but (and hopefully) I can be wrong.
So many fake and half-truth ‘news’ right now.
Would appreciate if you can comment on this article if it has any merit: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/deeper-story-behind-assassination-soleimani
Thanks in advance.
I think it has merit, as a very good start on the complexity of the situation..
For I know this situation is a lot more complicated than most oversimplifying commenters here would like to believe, in order to express their fears, and paint themselves as “better” than the confusion and scariness unfolding.
This includes, I am sure, many Americans here, who paint their own country as never before in history and never till The End of Time……”agreement capable” ….while they console themselves that they are a different, superior sort of “woke” exception to the Homogenous Evil of the Hegemon.
Maybe so, in a stark minority of cases.
But for the vast majority…………..I wonder what they were doing the last 4-5 decades (if adult then) or if they just joined the Anti-US Pity Party This Late In The Game…..to disassociate themselves from their earlier complicity (decades of acts of apolitical omission, in most cases…) the USA’s steady and quite obvious political and moral rot, especially since the obvious Deep State assassination of JFK………….and their gutless ignoring of the consequences of that evil….for many decades of subsequent cultural and political deterioration…while pursuing the comforts of “private life”.
IMHO there is no such homogeneity other than many diverse factions seeking to improve their prospects of survival. And the main ones are locked in struggle, first and foremost………..against each other. more so than against Iran…or China…or Russia.
Which obviously includes Donald J Trump (and some of his smarter, less jingoistic supporters) on one side and the NWO Bushies, Obamas, Clintons et al responsible for the Mess In the Middle East …..(though Thatcher and Blair are even more culpable as the “Imperial Brains” behind Stupid American Military Brawn) on another, opposite side…and that is just the bare beginning of the heterogeneity…………. of what makes up the non-homogenous USA.
Aside from the global consciousness rejecting Empire and favoring a more just and Multi-polar (balanceable!) Order, reflected by the article you linked….and Trump’s very difficult objective of BOTH leaving Iraq AND getting re-elected, there are a huge number of interdependent moving parts in this whole equation and for me at least, too many unknown variables…….to make any sweeping assessments that wouldn’t be wild-ass guesses….at this stage.
Until some huge gaps in the picture are filled in, I balance my caution and concern noting Tyler Durden’s words (and London Paul’s….who says the Soleimani killing was Trump’s absolute worst blunder ever..particularly .in that the general was travelling on a diplomatic mission to meet with Saudis …on Trump’s initiative!!…set up….known whereabouts and travel itinerary……and then treacherously betrayed and killed in a fashion that has to isolate DJT from ANY potential “partner”…ever in the future….that comprehends what he did….) with views like those through the Ever Rosy Glasses of “Dave”
https://youtu.be/ltJBD4d73ng
Backchannels Important, Iran Ready To Flip, [DS]/MSM Panic – Episode 2065
159,190 views•Jan 8, 2020
which are premised on the idea that Iran as well the US or any other place is not Homogenous Good Nor Evil…..and the real struggle is hidden from view……between the Bush Clinton Obama Kerry Allies there….and A Different Faction Trump Seeks to Deal With.
I don’t know, because there are too many unrevealed elements for me to know…or guess, at this stage.
The secret meeting between mobonesaws brother and trump which was inadvertently disclosed in the Saudi website, spilt the beans. The Iraqi PM was actually used to lure both soleimani and muhandis to the killing field at Baghdad airport with a fake Saudi overture. No doubt trump will be getting a couple of billion to finance his campaign now. The Iraqi public prosecutor should arrest the PM and charge him with treason.
@ Anon
… ” … Iraqi pm was actually used to lure both …. ” ….
Yes.
This possibility is highly probable , in world of politicians , spies and soldiers.
Kill two ones with one blow of foreign drone , and cover your role in it.
Gen soleimani was not soldier. He was civilian intelligence officer all his duties.
So there might be some really jelous iranian military academy pro officers who did not like gen soleimani rise through rank of pro army ranks. Jelous one general is easy to be spotted by some cia friendly man, and report sent , and link activated.
Being intel officer gen soleimani should have sensed this trap , but probably orders could come from much higher rank , so he should obey , and get into trap.
Similar with iraqi officer that was with him on location. Some jelous iraqi enemy.
Maybe not just jelous , but paid spy , or both.
Just enough as trap builder.
Real friends of gen soleimani are surely aware of this possibility , and will explore it.
You have to strike the iron while it’s still hot. If usofa doesnt leave, then regularly citing art 51 and sending a dozen missiles. Maybe this time tweet first with the exact timing in a couple hours to steal the narrative?
“The key question here is what happened to the Patriot Missile Defense for these bases who were on high alert assuming this is not similar to Trump’s missiles hitting empty buildings in Syria after the chemical false flag operation. I saw no report that any defense missile was working, which to me is very significant.”
If I am correctly informed, Patriots have an awfully bad hit ratio against ballistic missiles anyway. So there is really very little the US can do to defend their bases against strikes of this type.
Am I mistaken?
The story below: The Deeper Story Behind the Assassination of Soleimani by Federico PIERACCINI is worth reading.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/08/the-deeper-story-behind-the-assassination-of-soleimani/
Selah
Title Sputnik news service : ”Top IRGC General: Strikes on US Forces in Iraq Just Beginning of Full-Scale Op Across Region”
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202001091077988847-top-irgc-general-strikes-on-us-forces-in-iraq-just-beginning-of-full-scale-op-across-region/
I think the axis of resistance faces two constraints:
First, they must not allow the Anglo-Zionists to build up their strength too much.
Secondly, they must not disappoint in order to maintain popular mobilization at a high level.
It seems that we have entered into a rather peculiar type of war, which will have only a short period of time until the Anglo-Zionists have a valid missile defense.
The resistance must achieve maximum success during this period and prepare for the shock in return.
I don’t know, but maybe 3 to 9 months for withdrawal from Syria and Iraq. Then maybe a stalemate until the next stupid move (or not) of the empire.
Then pressure on the Seoud to decouple them from the empire.
Always with the possibility of escalation.
A lot of work for the strategists
as the Saker said, “far from over.
Alex Kramer
That article on RT by Ritter answered a lot of questions I had about the Iranian missile attack. A very useful analysis.
Iran didn’t want to kill US troops with its strike, it wanted to make point to Trump about its missile tech & resolve. It did that
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/477759-iran-missiles-subdued-us-strike/
“In the early hours of Wednesday morning, that task completed, Soleimani’s IRGC comrades, acting on the orders of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, launched some 22 ballistic missiles from Iranian territory into neighboring Iraq, targeting the huge US air base Al Asad, in western Iraq, and the US consulate in the city of Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan.
In the hours following the announcement of these attacks, which were broadcast on Iranian television for the Iranian people, the world held its breath, waiting for the results. Shortly after the missiles were launched, Iran signaled its desire for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis through a tweet sent out by its Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, who described the attacks as “proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter.” Zarif concluded by noting that “We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”
However, in launching its missile attack on US targets in Iraq, Iran appeared to go out of its way to signal that it considered the matter of retaliation for the assassination of Soleimani closed. First and foremost, Iran communicated its intent to strike US targets in Iraq directly to the Iraqi Prime Minister a full two hours prior to the missiles being launched; Iraq then shared this information with US military commanders, who were able to ensure all US troops were in hardened shelters at the time of the attack.
But the most important aspect of Iran’s actions was the way its missiles were targeted.
The missile attack on the US incorporated new, advanced missiles—the Qaim 1 and Fahad-110—possessing advanced guidance and control capable of pinpoint precision. Iran had used these weapons previously, striking targets inside Syria affiliated with the Islamic State. But this was the first time these weapons had been used against the US. From the US perspective, the results were sobering. The Iranian missile attacks resulted in no casualties among US, Iraqi or coalition forces stationed in either Al Asad or Erbil. But the lack of lethality, however, is actually Tehran’s way of proving the accuracy of its ballistic missiles.
Commercial satellite images of the Al Asad air base taken after the attack show that the Iranian missiles struck buildings containing equipment with a precision previously only thought possible by advanced powers such as the US, NATO, Russia and China. Iran fired 17 missiles at Al Asad, and 15 hit their targets (two missiles failed to detonate).
Iran also fired five additional missiles at the US consulate in Erbil; US commanders on the ground said that it appeared Iran deliberately avoided striking the consulate, but in doing so sent a clear signal that had it wanted, the consulate would have been destroyed.
Iran also fired five additional missiles at the US consulate in Erbil; US commanders on the ground said that it appeared Iran deliberately avoided striking the consulate, but in doing so sent a clear signal that had it wanted, the consulate would have been destroyed.
Surrounded by his national security team, Trump had to back down from that threat, knowing full well that if he were to attack Iran, the Iranian response would be devastating for both the US and its regional allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US might be able to inflict unimaginable devastation on Iran, but the cost paid would be unacceptably high.”
I am reminded of a story from The Crusades reading about this Iranian demonstration. In a meet between Richard the Lion Heart and Saladin (I think it was these 2), they showed off their favourite toys. Richard cleaved a mace with his massive 2 hand sword. Saladin plucked a hair from his head and divided lengthwise with his sword.
The Iranians and their allies made it clear if Iran is attacked, israel gets attacked, along with its colonials. This I think was crucial. I noticed netanyahoo went out of his way to distance israel from the murder of Soleimani, saying it was between Iranians and americans, that israel wasn’t involved. A lie, obviously. Facing accurate Iranian missiles and a mass blitz from Hizbullah’s missile/rocket inventory, the israelis would see serious casualties and devastation. Right now the israeli regime is in a sort of limbo state, with the haggling over forming a new government. I don’t think they are up for it at the moment. The chaos such a massed strike could create would be multiplied. My guess once they figured out what could well happen to israel, trump’s zionazi overlords ordered trump to stand down.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/harsher-revenge-revolutionary-guards-commander-vows-it-s-not-over-after-iranian-missile-strikes-on-us-forces-in-iraq
A senior Iranian military commander has promised further action against the United States, a day after Tehran launched missiles at two bases housing US troops in Iraq.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Abdollah Araghi said that Iran would take “harsher revenge soon,” without specifying what that might entail, Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.
The deputy head of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, described Iran’s missile attacks on US forces as a display of the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities, claiming that the Americans “couldn’t do a damn thing” about the strikes.
Earlier, President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran’s ultimate goal, in retaliation against the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, is the complete removal of US forces from the region.
Iran’s supreme leader described the missile strike as a “slap in the face” for the US, but said that the attack was not “sufficient” to remove “the corrupting presence of America in the region.”
Tehran defended the strikes as a legitimate act of self-defense. US President Donald Trump said that Washington would respond with more sanctions while reserving the right to take further military action against Iran in the future. The escalation has prompted calls from the international community for an easing of US-Iran tensions.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/08/the-deeper-story-behind-the-assassination-of-soleimani/
Also probably why DT aint bothered re the Iraq person……