Eric Zuesse for The Saker blog
The spokesperson for the Islamist party of Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has called upon all of NATO to go to war against Syria for Syria’s having killed dozens of Turkey’s troops in order for Syria to defeat Turkey’s invasion and military occupation of Syria’s Idlib Province, which borders on Turkey. Going to war against Syria would mean going to war also against Russia, which is in Syria to protect Syria’s sovereignty over its own territory. If the United States accepts that Turkish proposal, then World War III will consequently result.
Darius Shahtahmasebi reported for Russia’s RT News on the morning of February 28th,
Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib, allegedly while fighting in terrorist ranks. In the regional chaos that ensues, only one player stands to gain.
Speculation over what’s to come next has seen #article 5 trending on Twitter in the hours following the attacks, after Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AKP party, indicated to reporters in Ankara that he was looking at requesting formal NATO protection against Damascus and, by proxy, the Russian air force.
“We call on NATO to [start] consultations. This is not [an attack] on Turkey only, it is an attack on the international community. A common reaction is needed. The attack was also against NATO,” Celik told Turkish media.
Article 5 of the NATO treaty says an attack on one member is an attack on them all.
The US State Department also condemned the attack, stating that it stands by its “NATO ally Turkey.” It further stated that it continues to “call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia and Iranian-backed forces.” Never one to let us down, the US envoy to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchinson also told journalists that “everything is on the table.”
This is the opportunity for U.S. President Donald Trump to join his opposition, Democratic Party’s, and even his own Party’s, hate-Russia campaign, by unleashing World War III, if he wants to. (For example, it was a unified Congress, both Parties, that forced him, on 17 July 2018, to reverse himself and say that Russia had assisted in his having become the U.S. President. He needed to be forced in order to say he agreed with that statement.)
Internally, within Islamist-ruled Turkey, the official Anadolu Press Agency sub-headlined one English-language news report, “Crisis in Idlib has crossed all limits, says presidential spokesman after regime attack martyrs 33 Turkish troops” and opened, “Turkey’s presidential spokesman on Friday called on the international community to take measures to de-escalate tensions in Syria after dozens of Turkish soldiers were martyred in a late night attack by the regime forces.” No mention was made, about those ‘martyrs’, that this had occurred in Syrian territory, where Turkish forces were invaders and military occupiers, and that the ‘regime’ they referred to is Syria’s committedly and ideologically secular, non-sectarian, Government, which is the only internationally recognized Government that Syria has (but from which Islamist Turkey is now trying to seize Syria’s Idlib Province and to include it within Turkey’s own territory).
By 7PM Turkish time on Friday the 28th, Firat Kozok of Bloomberg News headlined “Turkey Says It Has No Choice But to ‘Loosen’ Stance on Refugees” and reported that
Turkey is pressed by developments in Syria’s Idlib and has no choice but to “loosen” its policy of preventing refugees from travelling on to Europe, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s communications director Fahrettin Altun told reporters in Ankara.
“If Idlib falls, then millions of Syrian refugees will try to escape to Turkey and Europe. Turkey no longer has the possibility to provide resources for and help these people,” Altun said.
This is applying pressure upon the European member-nations in NATO to either join Turkey’s now very hot war against both Syria and Russia, or else to become faced with Turkey’s release of the tens of thousands of ‘rebels’ (mainly jihadists) whom Turkish forces in Syria’s Idlib Province have been protecting against military fire from Syria’s Army and from Russia’s Air Force.
The events that led to this critical impasse were reported by me last night (the 27th), and that report thus continues here, in order to provide context to these events:
“Turkey Now Claims Syria’s Idlib Province as Turkish Territory”
Eric Zuesse
On February 26th, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President, told his Islamist political party that Idlib, which is the most heavily jihadist of all of Syria’s provinces and the province where Syria had been sending jihadists who had been defeated but not killed by the Syrian army elsewhere in the Syrian war, is now permanently under Turkey’s protection, and belongs to Turkey — Turkish territory. Russia’s RT news headlined on the 26th, “‘We’re the hosts there’: Erdogan says Turkey won’t pull back from Syria’s sovereign territory, gives Assad ultimatum to retreat”, and reported that,
The Turkish leader has ruled out withdrawal from Idlib, where his forces are backing militants fighting the Syrian Army. He also gave Damascus an ultimatum to retreat beyond Turkey’s observation posts placed on Syrian soil.
“We will not step back in Idlib. We are not the guests in this realm, we are the hosts,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a meeting of his AK party on Wednesday. Vowing to bring “the regime’s attacks” to an end, Erdogan said Ankara is giving Damascus time to pull forces back from Turkish observation posts.
The very next day, on the 27th, the Turkish English-language newspaper Yeni Safak bannered “Situation in Syria’s Idlib ‘in favor of Turkey’: Turkish president says Turkey has also reversed situation in Libya, which was previously in favor of Libyan warlord Haftar” and they reported that Erdogan saw signs that Turkey was introducing new international realities in both Syria and Libya.
Later on the 27th, RT headlined “33 Turkish soldiers confirmed killed in Idlib airstrike as Erdogan chairs emergency meeting on Syria” and reported that “Turkish officials attributed the strike to the Syrian military.” However, any Turkish retaliation against Syrian forces would not only be met by Russian defense of Syrian forces but would be clearly a Syrian response to Turkish aggression and therefore any U.S. involvement supporting Turkey in this matter would be America’s participating in Turkey’s blatantly illegal grab for Idlib. Even America’s allies in Europe and elsewhere might then turn away from the U.S., and away from Turkey.
This extraordinarily assertive position by Erdogan results from the sequence of events that will be described here:
U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. allies made unequivocally clear in late August and early September of 2018 that if Syria and Russia would try to restore Syrian Government control over Syria’s Idlib Province, then the U.S. and its allies would greatly escalate their war against Syria’s Government. For example, on 3 September 2018, Trump tweeted, “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed.” South Front reported, the following day, that,
Trump’s tweet comes as Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the start of his visit to Damascus said that “terrorists must be purged” from the province and Idlib in its entirety must be returned under government control.
“Syria’s territorial integrity should be safeguarded and all tribes and groups, as one society, should start the reconstruction process, and the refugees should return to their homes,” Mr Zarif said.
Zarif met with President Assad and the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem. They mostly discussed the expected September 7th summit, which will happen in Tehran. Russian, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian leaders are supposed to meet and discuss the situation in Idlib.
A statement from Assad’s office said that Iran and Syria “had similar views on the different issues” that are to be discussed.
On 10 September 2018, I wrote that “Unless Syria will simply hand its most heavily pro-jihadist province, Idlib, to adjoining Turkey, which claims to have 30,000 troops there and is planning to add 20,000 more,” there would be a war between NATO member Turkey, which has invaded there, versus Russia, which — at Syria’s request — has been assisting Syria’s Government to conquer all of Syria’s jihadists. Syria’s Army has gradually liberated and retaken most of Syria’s territory from jihadists, but had been using Idlib Province as a collection-area for the ones who were holding Syrian civilians as human shields. Syria was bussing into Idlib the tens of thousands of jihadists that surrendered. This was being done so as to minimize the numbers of civilians who would be killed when Syria’s army would retake an area, under Russian air-cover. This would allow the civilians there to escape to Syrian-Government-held territory, and the armed forces of Syria and Russia then to move in and slaughter the jihadists who remained there, so that Syria would retake that area from the U.S.-backed jihadists.
Then, seven days later, I headlined “Putin and Erdogan Plan Syria-Idlib DMZ as I Recommended”, and reported that,
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan jointly announced on September 17th in Tehran, “We’ve agreed to create a demilitarized zone between the government troops and militants before October 15. The zone will be 15-20km wide,” which compares to the Korean DMZ’s 4-km width.
Though the understanding that Erdogan had reached with Iran’s President Rouhani and with Russia’s President Putin was that this would be only a temporary measure in order to get the U.S. and its allies to cease threatening World War III if Syria and Russia promptly let loose and slaughtered the ‘rebels’ in Idlib (those being Americas’s previous main fighters to defeat and replace Syria’s Government), Erdogan soon presented clear indications that he actually wanted to seize Syrian territory and to get as much of it as he could — that his goal in Syria included expanding Turkey into Syria. His temporary policing function, as agreed-to by Russia, to isolate and not allow to escape the defeated jihadists who had become trapped there, turned out to be far more than that: it turned out to be Erdogan’s protection of those jihadists.
On September 25th of 2018, I had bannered “Turkey Now Controls Syria’s Jihadists”, and presented the historical background behind this. Then, on 14 July 2019, I headlined “Turkey Will Get a Chunk of Syria: An Advantage of Being in NATO”, and explained that because of NATO’s backing of Turkey’s seizure of Syrian territory, Turkey was already committed to the construction of Syrian branches of Turkey’s Gaziantep University and of Turkey’s Harran University, as well as of building supportive infrastructure for those facilities — absorbing portions of northern Syria into Turkey.
So, this has been a gradual process, and now Erdogan, backed by U.S.President Trump and by NATO, will be saving the lives of the tens of thousands of jihadists (plus their families) who had been defeated elsewhere in Syria, and who thus will avoid what the U.S. and its allies had warned would be a ‘humanitarian crisis’ of mass-slaughtering those defeated jihadists (which the U.S. and its allies still call ‘Syrian rebels’ — even though most of them aren’t even Syrian).
As I noted in the 14 July 2019 article:
At that time, just prior to the Tehran conference — and this was actually the reason why the conference was held — the U.S. and its allies, and the U.N., were demanding that an all-out invasion of Idlib, which had been planned by the Governments of Syria and of Russia, must not take place, for ‘humanitarian’ reasons. There was all that ‘humanitarian’ concern (led by the United States) for the world’s biggest concentration of Nusra and Nusra-led jihadists — and for Syria’s most jihadist-supporting civilian population. So much ‘kindness’, such ‘admirable’ ‘humanitarianism’. Furthermore the U.S. Government was threatening to greatly increase its forces against Syria if that invasion by Syria and by Russia into Idlib (which is, after all, part of Syria — so, what business is it, even of the U.N., at all?) were to be carried out. The Tehran conference was meeting in order to resolve that emergency situation (mainly America’s threats of a possible war against Russia), so as to forestall this attack.
Trump’s backing of Turkey’s aggression was taking the United States even deeper into his predecessor, Barack Obama’s, support of jihadists in order to overthrow Syria’s non-sectarian Government and install one that would be acceptable to the fundamentalist-Sunni Saud family who own Saudi Arabia.
And now Erdogan again is threatening Russia with WW III if Russia continues to defend Syria’s sovereignty over Idlib — Syria’s most-jihadist province.
On February 26th, Yeni Safak bannered “Turkey will never compromise on Sochi deal for Syria, says Erdoğan”; so, Erdogan is openly threatening WW III if Russia and Syria resist Turkey’s seizure of Idlib and protection of its many thousands of jihadists.
Although the U.S. has led this apparent victory for jihadists and for international aggression, Turkey’s Erdogan has been its spearhead. Russia and Iran had not agreed to this. Certainly, Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, hadn’t agreed to anything like this outcome. Turkey, in its 10 September 2018 agreement with Russia and with Iran, had committed itself to separating-out and killing the jihadists; but, instead, Turkey has been protecting them, and now will be absorbing them, and taking Idlib Province from adjoining Syria. As recently as 22 October 2019, Erdogan had promised Putin in Sochi that “The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria,” and that, “They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.” Yeni Safak’s February 26th article opened “Turkey will never compromise on the Sochi deal on embattled Idlib, Syria, and it expects the deal to be implemented, said the country’s president on Wednesday.” Turkey “expects the deal to be implemented” while blatantly violating it.
Brett McGurk, a leading neoconservative in the Administrations of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, admitted, on 27 July 2017, that “Idlib Province is the largest Al Qaeda safe-haven since 9/11, tied directly to Ayman al-Zawahiri,” and that “to send in tens of thousands of tons of weapons and looking the other way as these foreign fighters come into Syria, may not have been the best approach,” but yet the U.S. regime continues that approach, and backs Turkey’s grab of Idlib and protection of those jihadists. Previously, McGurk had been U.S. President Barack Obama’s special envoy for the anti-Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) coalition. He had supported jihadists led by al-Nusra (Syrian branch of Al Qaeda) and supported separatist Kurds in Syria, to overthrow Syria’s Government. Even the liberal (or Democratic Party, pro-Obama) neoconservative Washington Post had not hidden the fact that “The U.S. team, headed by senior White House adviser Robert Malley and State Department envoy Brett McGurk” had informed the newspaper that “Russia was said to have rejected a U.S. proposal to leave Jabhat al-Nusra off-limits to bombing as part of a cease-fire” — the fact that Obama was actually protecting those jihadists (though not protecting ISIS or ‘ISIL’). Obama backed al-Qaeda there, and so does Trump. However, when Trump ran for the Presidency in 2016, he promised to reverse Obama’s obsession to overthrow Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. That, and similar promises he made, were antithetical to the most-basic commitments of the U.S. Establishment. They became his implacable enemies.
Finally, on 10 November 2016, right after Trump’s election, that same newspaper, the WP, bannered “Obama directs Pentagon to target al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, one of the most formidable forces fighting Assad” and, without noting that Obama had supported that “al-Qaeda affiliate” until then, but instead falsely reporting that “the administration had largely ignored until now” it, said: “While Obama, White House national security adviser Susan E. Rice, Secretary of State John F. Kerry and special presidential envoy Brett McGurk agreed with [the super-neoconservative Obama Secretary of Defense Ashton] Carter on the need to keep the focus on the Islamic State, they favored shifting resources to try to prevent al-Nusra from becoming a bigger threat down the road.” That was extreme euphemism, coming from this extremely neoconservative liberal newspaper. Actually, Obama had built his overthrow-Assad operation mainly upon al-Nusra, to train and lead the tens of thousands of foreign jihadists who had been pouring into Syria. The Washington Post was one of the most lying, deceptive, newspapers reporting anywhere in the world about international relations, very heavily slanted neoconservative — in favor of expanding the U.S. mega-corporate empire. Whereas the separatist Kurds were America’s main proxy-army fighting in Syria’s northeast, al-Nusra led America’s proxy-armies everywhere else in Syria. That 10 November 2016 WP article also asserted “But aides say Obama grew frustrated that more wasn’t being done by the Pentagon and the intelligence community to kill al-Nusra leaders given the warnings he had received from top counterterrorism officials about the gathering threat they posed.” That’s another lie, because Secretary of State John Kerry had actually fought inside the Administration against Obama’s policy on that, and the policy came from Obama himself — and NOT from his subordinates (such as Ashton Carter), as that lying newspaper alleged. The article referred to “the expanded push against al-Nusra” — but here is the reality: by no later than December 2012 Obama had settled upon al-Nusra to lead America’s overthrow-Assad campaign inside Syria. And the reason for that has very deep historical roots — all hidden from the American public. Instead of such realism, that propaganda-organ, in its article on 10 November 2016, wrote:
A bitterly divided Obama administration had tried over the summer to cut a deal with Moscow on a joint U.S.-Russian air campaign against al-Nusra, in exchange for a Russian commitment to ground Syrian government warplanes and to allow more humanitarian supplies into besieged areas. But the negotiations broke down in acrimony, with Moscow accusing the United States of failing to separate al-Nusra from more moderate rebel groups and Washington accusing the Russians of war crimes in Aleppo.
‘Humanitarian’. How stupid does the owner of the Washington Post think that the American public is in order for it still to believe that its Government really cares about being “humanitarian” around the world — especially in countries it’s trying to conquer, such as Iraq, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia …? Really? He thinks it’s that stupid? Or, does he think his newspaper can help to make them so misinformed?
That rabidly anti-Russian newspaper continued there:
Russia had accused the United States of sheltering al-Nusra, a charge repeated Thursday in Moscow by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“The president doesn’t want this group to be what inherits the country if Assad ever does fall,” a senior U.S. official said. “This cannot be the viable Syrian opposition. It’s al-Qaeda.”
Officials said the administration’s hope is that more-moderate rebel factions will be able to gain ground as both the Islamic State and al-Nusra come under increased military pressure.
The article also featured a headline and link to their 9 November 2016 news-story, “Intelligence community is already feeling a sense of dread about Trump”. Even back then, the Democratic Party’s billionaires were pumping their agents’ allegations which would lead to Russiagate, the Mueller Report, and ultimately to Ukrainegate and Trump’s impeachment for being insufficiently supportive of President Obama’s 2014 coup and conquest of Ukraine, which Obama had started planning by no later than 2011. All of that was a warning to any current or future U.S. President, that to buck the collective will of America’s billionaires is to commit political suicide. It doesn’t make any difference what the President’s Party is — the dictate, from the billionaires, applies to any U.S. President. This ‘restored Cold War’ is nothing of the sort — on the U.S. side, the war secretly continued uninterrupted, even after the Soviet Union ended its communism, and its Warsaw-Pact mirror of America’s NATO military alliance.
UPDATE: On February 28th, the German Government news-agency Deutsche Welle (DW) bannered “Idlib: ‘I’d rather suffer bombs than Assad’” and provided an extensive interview by telephone with someone in Idlib who says that she supports democracy and tolerance of all religions and is determined to overthrow the present Government of Syria. If her pro-democracy, anti-jihadist, allegations are honest, then she is an extraordinary exception for Idlib, as has been documented by the periodic polls that the British polling firm Orb International took throughout Syria and reported during 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. For examples:
In the 2014 report (page 12) only 4% of the people sampled in Idlib said that they supported “The Assad Government.” This was far lower than the percentages in any other Syrian province. 52% supported either “armed opposition” or “Violent religious extremist groups.” This was far higher than in any other province except ISIS-controlled Raqqah, where it was 59%.
In the 2015 report (page 7), 35% of the people sampled in Idlib said that al-Nusra (al-Qaeda in Syria) was a “Completely positive influence”; an additional 35% said it was a “Somewhat positive influence.” That 70% support for al-Qaeda was by far the highest found in any of Syria’s provinces.
If the person who was at the other end of that DW phone-call was authentic, then she was anything but representative of the people in Idlib.
At around 10 AM Eastern time in the U.S. on the 28th, Turkey’s Daily Sabah newspaper headlined “Erdoğan and Putin may meet next week, Kremlin says”, and reported that “Erdoğan and Putin spoke over the phone Friday to try to defuse tensions that rose significantly in northwestern Syria after 33 Turkish troops were killed in a Syrian regime airstrike.” Either Erdogan is trying to find a face-saving way out of his huge gamble, or Putin is trying to prevent WW III, or both. An hour later, that newspaper bannered “Turkey determined to remove Assad regime from Syria’s Idlib, Erdoğan tells Trump.” Why is it that a country can proudly proclaim in a headline that it will commit international aggression in blatant violation of international law and yet not be roundly damned by the publics in all countries for doing such a vile thing?
At around noon, U.S. Eastern time, on the 28th, Turkey’s TRT World bannered “NATO and the West’s dereliction of duty in Syria and Turkey” and opened: “If the West and NATO continue on the path they have chosen, it will allow Vladimir Putin to reshape the post-Soviet world order in his image.” After trying to scare Europe’s leaders by threatening to overwhelm them with maybe hundreds of thousands of released jihadists who have been basically penned-up in Idlib, Erdogan was trying to appeal to those leaders’ obligations to NATO, America’s anti-Russian military alliance.
At around 1:30 PM U.S. Eastern time on the 28th, Britain’s Guardian headlined “Nato expresses ‘full solidarity’ with Turkey over Syria airstrikes” but NATO chief “Stoltenberg offered no immediate promise of assistance to Turkey,” and the article went on to report that the UK and five of its allies would bring the matter to the U.N. Security Council on Friday night (where Turkey’s demands would even more certainly go nowhere). The reality of Stoltenberg’s statement (which had been issued at 12:33 Eastern time) was a total humiliation to Erdogan’s fantasies that because of his country’s NATO membership he could get the U.S. to invade Russia. Stoltenberg gave the standard NATO hate-talk against Russia and its allies, however, saying that “Allies condemn the continued indiscriminate air strikes by the Syrian regime and its backer Russia in Idlib province.” Even when a NATO member engages in clear-cut foreign aggression in violation of the U.N. Charter’s prohibiton against that, and explicitly violating the International Criminal Court’s “Crime of Aggression”, NATO will spew its standard hate-propaganda against the countries that were and are victims of that blatantly illegal aggression by the NATO member-country. Notwithstanding NATO’s sometimes diplomatic language, it is — after Russia ended its side of the Cold War in 1991 — basically an extremely dangerous militarized hate-organization, of which every one of its member-nations should be profoundly embarrassed to belong.
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
All for nothing. NATO is NOT going to do a damn thing to help Turkey in Idlib province. As for the Patriot missiles the Turks keep begging the US for like a bunch of pathetic morons, they aren’t getting those either, and even if they did, such useless missiles would hardly make a difference.
Meanwhile, more Turks are going to be getting sent home in coffins soon enough. Erdogan just pissed off not only the Syrians, who are more determined than ever, but also has managed to recently piss off both Hezbollah, Iran, *and* Russia… all of whom will be looking for revenge against the idiotic Turks after their most recent drone strike which killed ~9 Hezbollah fighters and some IRGC soldiers.
The reality is that Erdogan vastly overplayed his hand in Idlib province. Soon, the Syrian Army will adjust their tactics and wipe out the invading Turkish drones and mount a counter-attack, taking back even more land, and killing any Turkish soldiers who try to resist the onslaught. They will have the full support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in this action. Neither the US nor NATO will intervene to stop the Turks from getting the asskicking they so richly deserve.
It really is amazing how truly stupid Erdogan truly is. He thought he could stab every single major player in the middle east in the back, even his own allies, and get away with it. A true megalomaniac. Now he is getting his just desserts, and so are his forces that have illegally invaded Syrian land.. and if they think NATO will stop them from getting what they deserve, they had better think again. Erdogan should have stuck by his allies instead of stabbing them all in the back just to protect Al-Qaeda. Now he will learn this lesson the hard way.
A true megalomaniac.
As always one must pity the cannon fodder, prime of life conscripts and families sent to horrible deaths as casually as dust in these reckless adventures.
Erdogan is pushing the geopolitical envelope to secure Turkey’s geopolitical space. Beneath the bluster is a solid geopolitical player. Or a very lucky one.
If he were a fool, he’d attack the SAA and Russia without first checking to see if the U.S. and NATO were really behind him – or waaaay behind him at a safe distance hoping Turkey and Russia Vietnam war each other in Syria.
Erdogan’s main objective is probably to secure Libya for Turkey from EU orbit, and as much Med oil and natural gas as he can take. To sell back to the EU at a fair price, of course.
Hmmm….as Erdo says he has destroyed several chemical warehouses…. he could be tempted to ” find” evidence of Assad using chemical weapons in order to substantiate his request for Nato action via the gullible Trump and Nato to continue the chaos and prevent Sochi Astana being realised……to further justify his presence in Idlib as a protectionist of what he calls and claims Syrian peoples have invited him in…..he seems to be using a whole lot of what ifs and possibles so even more could be in his repetoire .
The Anglosphere led by the American Empire is merely using Turkey as a pawn to advance a more sinister geopolitical agenda: Destabilize Eurasia.
This can be done by regime change ops disguised as “pro-democracy” movements; economic sanctions; maximum pressure campaigns; or covert biowarfare like the Coronavirus pandemic.
And of course, this Anglo Axis agenda is best advanced through fomenting wars.
Sowing chaos and conflict in Eurasia has been fundamental to Anglo imperialism for *centuries* from the British Empire (and Halford MacKinder) to the Anglo American Empire today.
The Anglos will often cultivate a “madman” ruler, who will stupidly lead his country to wage war against against a nation that the Anglos consider an enemy. The Anglos will be the primary beneficiaries of this war between third party nations.
The best example is how the Anglo Americans covertly aided and abetted the rise of Adolph Hitler and the Nazis in Germany–so as to induce Germany to attack Russia–and ultimately prevent a German-Russian alliance in Eurasia.
Similarly, Turkish bonhomie with Russia and broader Eurasia is what the Anglo Americans absolutely, positively are allergic to.
As such, getting Turkey to wage a self-defeating and destructive war that will cause conflict in the Middle East and with Russia is *exactly* what the Anglo Americans want.
You can almost hear the Anglo Americans snickering with glee as they sit safely half a world away, protected by their oceans, while the Eurasians destroy themselves.
Anonymous
What you have written is correct. However, can Turkey really be used to destroy Euro-Asia ? I think not, bearing in mind the state of it’s economy, which is not standing firmly and which depends on foreign trade. Before Euro-Asia can be destroyed, it’s Turkey that will destroy its self. Also, don’t forget how many people Erdogan had to purge after that attempted coup d’etat in 2016. Those people are watching him.
No need to finish reading the article. If sultan Erdogan goes further insane – there will be no Turkey soon. Iran and Russia will take care. And the shitty NATO countries will just shut up and watch… Russia will finally get the straits into possession.
Along with Constantinople, perhaps?
According to an article fromTASS and to several videos backing the article Turkey bombed and destroy more than 200 syrian army equipments including air defense systems MLRS howitzers tanks etc.
Sarakib has been retaken by terrorits and turkish army M5 highway has been cut again. Now there is a terrorists ofensive in southern idlib retaking villages from the syriam army. The offesive is backed by turkish drones and artillery.
So I think that we can say that russia backed down and won t prevent turkey from attacking the syrian army. It s clear. Russia won t go to war for syria. Idlib will remain under terrorits (and turkey) control.
It s a clear sign of weakness that the empire will exploit. I don t think Assad will last long if the empire put the hammer down. The last develpment around in idlib (the military offensive of the syrian army) is back firing hard. This put the russia operation in syria in jeopardy. I am not sure the russians should have given the green light to syria if they are not 100% behind the syrians. It was obvious turkey would have reacted. If russia doesn t want to confront turkey why pushing assad to attack? Why giving S300 ans pantsir to syria if the syrians are not allowed to use them againts turkish drones in syrian airspace????? There are many things from russia I don t understand.
Clarence
I am trying to verify what you have stated. Tonight I have been watching a TV report from Syria, and that highway is very much in use, ie. it has not been cut. I am also surprised that the Turkish Army has destroyed air defense systems and MLRS, which operate from the rear, and should have been out of range of the Turkish artillery, especially the air defense systems. We shall have a clear picture in the upcoming days.
Clarence
I need to correct you. I read that TASS article. It just quoted the Turkish military, which stated that it attacked 200 targets in Idlib, not that it destroyed 200 Syrian Army pieces of equipment. The Turks also stated that they used combat aircraft, which needs to be verified, as it is not easy to accept.
Yes you are right the article says 200 targets. I made a mistake.
On southfront you can see a map showing that the M5 has been cut again. And the last article posted on the southfront website is about the last offensive of the terrorits who are taking back several villages previously liberated by the syrian army.
I made my points on the tass article and what you can find on southfront.org
Maybe all of this is propaganda. What you said in encouraging. I have to say that I hope the articles I read are just fake news.
@Clarence
Where did you get that info of, Russia was “pushing” Assad in confrontation (“to attack” Turkey) ?!
That sounds totally false and against all Russian public announcements.
Also for “interdiction” of not using “S-300 and Pantsir to Syria”
We all know that Pantsir’s were most definitely used for sure in Syria (by Syrians).
So why would Russians forbid them use of Pantsir now?
Do you have any proof for any of that?
Saying that without proof is totally irresponsible.
I think Assad, Rouhani, Nasrallah, and Putin should, just before this shitstorm subsides, make a bold statement to the effect that
— We are the Axis of Evil!
and then start flogging this sewer animal Erdogan in public. The expected reaction from the Zionazi-gay ”international community” will make for huuuge entertainment.
Turkey joined NATO in February of 1952. Why ? Because of it’s geographic location ? Yes, that is one reason. Because it fought Russia on a number of occasions ? Yes, that is another reason. However, this was a very foolish move by the West and NATO, bearing in mind Turkey had it’s Ottoman Empire, something it cannot forget. Everybody forgets that Cyprus invasion of 1974, when NATO stood aside. That should have been a warning that more was to come, and finally it has come with Idlib, which Turkey has now proclaimed to be ‘Turkish’ territory. Indeed. They obviously intend to snatch it like they did Constantinople in 1453.
When it comes to Erdogan, his sanity needs to be questioned. After that coup d’etat against him in 2016, he purged his military of disloyal officers. The result has been a highly questionable performance of the Turkish Army in Syria. According to unofficial accounts, he lost more men than he dared admit. He is now asking NATO to back him against Syria and Russia, because his Army has been “attacked” on the territory of another country. In effect he was itching NATO to start World War Three on his behalf. NATO of course refused. Even if a limited conventional military intervention was introduced, then the unity of NATO would have been brought into question, as in Europe there is no mood for another world war.
What now ? It’s questionable if even Erdogan knows what to do. Time is not on his side. The Turkish economy is not stable and he cannot afford himself any large scale military operations, certainly not by an Army of questionable efficiency. He is risking a military defeat, economic collapse and social and political disturbances. No doubt he has not forgotten how many thousands of people he purged in 2016 after the failure of that coup d’etat. Those people are watching him. He has now created a situation where he will be more in trouble inside Turkey than in Syria. What ever he does, he will lose face. Now we shall see what he is going to do.
If you don’t mind, let me add something:
From the above article : “Article 5 of the NATO treaty says an attack on one member is an attack on them all.” – it is pretty clear that this is not the case by far for the introduction of that article, moreover it is such a big lie because Turkey’s territory was not put in danger at all ! Nobody, attacked poor Turkey, nobody committed aggression against Turkey ! Even contrary, Turkey is the aggressor, considering the northern parts of Syria its own territory, which nobody recognized, therefore has no legal value.
I had to tell this because people are getting very easily absorbed into ample discussions while the reality is so simple : the whole circus around Article 5 is based on a Big Lie !
NATO intervention on this basis is Null.
Syria has the right to defend itself.
Having the right and having the means are very different things.
Syria has demonstrated the means very well, thank you.
Article from TASS: “Turkish aircraft, artillery hit over 200 Syrian army targets in Idlib
The top brass reiterated that the decision on massive strikes on Syrian forces was made after the death of 33 Turkish military in Idlib”.
Saraqib has been retaken by terrorists and the M5 has been cut again.
Support from russia is limited. Clearly russia doesn t want to confront turkey.
So the syrian army has the means to defend itself against the terrorists but it has not the means against turkey and israel without full support from russia. And that support doesn t come. Turkish drones can go inside syrian airspace and strike at syrian military assets. Where are the S300 and the pantsir when syria needs them? Why turkey can use MRLS and howitzers in idlib against syrian army positions without being attacked by syrian air force or VKS?
I think these are a legitimate questions.
I am just trying to understand what s going on in syria.
Clarence
You are misrepresenting things. I saw that TASS article, which quoted the Turkish military. The article did not confirm that this actually happened. What is questionable is the Turkish statement that it used combat aircraft in Idlib. This remains to be verified.
I hope the articles I read are fake news. You see if in the next days the syrian army will be pushed back by terrorits we will be able to assess that it was true.
The 4 articles I read:
https://tass.com/defense/1124781
https://southfront.org/turkish-drone-strikes-inflict-catastrophic-losses-on-syrian-army-videos/
https://southfront.org/turkish-backed-militants-recapture-several-towns-in-southern-idlib-in-new-large-scale-attack-photos/
https://southfront.org/gains-and-setbacks-by-syrian-army-in-greater-idlib-february-23-29-2020-map-update/
Clarence
I would like to present the following article:
https://www.blacklistednews.com/article/76391/syria–deadly-bomb-strike-warns-turkey-to-end-its.html
B.F. ,
Thank you for the article. It says a complete different story. I must admit that I am confused. It s more and more difficult to get reliable informations.
It s possible that the video I watched on southfront showing the bombing of turkish army against the syrian army is fake. Maybe combat footage from Libya? I don t know .
I forgot to mention that on southfront there is an article saying that 9 hezbollah fighters have killed by turkish army is northwestern Syria.
This is the article:
https://southfront.org/nine-hezbollah-fighters-killed-in-turkish-strikes-on-northwest-syria/
Do you know anything on this ?
B.F. ,
I think you may be intereted in reading this :
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/syria-a-short-note-on-recent-developments.html
It is very symptomatic to see, each time that the forces of Good are in a big battle that is turning the tides, to see appear messages posted by new contributors, or dormant ones, with a very negative content.
But even if those defeatists messages about “Syria losing the war” or “Puting betraying (again)” had any effect in this or other forums and blogs (I don’t think they would have any traction here, but “even if” ), then the real issue will be settled in the real world. On the ground. Yes, that same real world, reality based, that some, in their delusion, declared to be nonexistent because, you know, they are an Empire and create their own virtual reality…
For myself, I enjoy those pessimistic messages about “Syria losing the war” and “Putin betraying (again)”, because they are an indication that things are going very bad for the forces of Evil, and they are desperate.
It is hard for me to know the situation on the field; I am very far, and there is so much disinformation.
However, the enemy has some information I don’t have; when the enemy is afraid and launches a fear campaign, I know the enemy is afraid, and there is a reason for that. So I know I can rejoice. I distrust the enemy for a lot of things, but his fear, that I trust him, it’s probably one of the few true things he has.
My thoughts exactly; thank you pavlo.
Putin stirs up serious trouble for Western imperialism, and Westerners — wherever they position themselves on the 100% nonsensical Left/Right scale — don’t approve of that. The Zionazi propaganda addicts are the obvious cases in point but we also have the ”anti-authoritarian” garbage, forever finding common ground with the Liberal Imperialist Establishment in identifying the world’s forces of resistance as enemies. Hence the memes of Putin selling out and the Assad regime.
Imho Russia will have 2 hot spots to handle soon. Syria and Ukraine. Plus whatever pressure comes from the deployment of nato troops around Europe which will last for months.
Plus whatever new provocation appears. Remember the Skripal case, the mh17 case, the “hospital bombings”, the cw use accusations? These might multiply in the near future as part of some “anaconda” strategy. Or something more evil who knows? Expect everything…
I hope I’m wrong and all nations magically come to their senses and build for the future and not destroy each other for NOTHING…
<i<Imho Russia will have 2 hot spots to handle soon. Syria and Ukraine.
You may be entitled to your opinions, but Russia cares more about Syria, which is essential to Russia, than the Ukraine, which is merely adjacent.
What is potentially upsetting the balance of Ruasoas interest wirh Syria and Turkey however…is the new lurv affair between Erdo and Z…..maybe….and the tripartate Iran Russia Turkey setup too….is Iran expressing increasing concern….Erdo and Rouhani spoke yesterday….Erdo says fighting in Idlib must stop and Astana process has been very useful….could he be saying he will consider dropping out of it……meanwhile Russia and OSCE and others protests as Sputniknews employees are under attack in Ankara…..
Extract
“The IRGC Advisory Center in Syria, the advisory office assisting the Syrian Arab Army in combating terrorists, issued a chilling warning to the Turkish Army in the wake of the unprovoked attacks against the SAA in Idlib.
After assuring the Russian President Putin that he will calm down and accepted a ceasefire, Erodgan launched a series of cheap shot strikes with the help of Israeli modified drones against the posts of the Syrian Arab Army and its allies which resulted in the martyrdom of a number of SAA and Hezb Allah soldiers, they were already engaged with al-Qaeda terrorists.
‘Your sons have been in the crosshairs of our forces for a month and we could have taken revenge.’ One of the lines in the statement issued by the IRGC center addressing the Turkish people……”
https://www.syrianews.cc/irgc-advisory-center-in-syria-sends-chilling-threat-to-the-turkish-army/
Theee Syrian planes targeted…two brought down
BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:00 P.M.) – The Turkish military has shot down two Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) jets in western Idlib this afternoon, following the downing of a Turkish drone in the governorate.
According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), two Syrian jets were shot down by the Turkish forces in Idlib, forcing the pilots to eject from their aircraft.
I bet it was Israeli planes with transponders set to make them appear as Turkish planes. If the news is actually true
Pavlo,
I made my statements with the informations I got on the 4 articles I posted above.
If the informations are true I think I have every right to be pessimistic. If they are false I won t use these websites again because they are not reliable at all.
I know that here It s possible to find well informed people. And I know that here there are no trolls thanks to the moderators.
So I made the statements according to the informations I could read and I asked questions hoping to obtain answers from well informed people.
> I think I have every right to be pessimistic.
There is no such thing as a “right to be pessimistic”.
You can of course believe for yourself as you want; however, when you engage in what was the primary meaning of “propaganda”, that is “propagation of ideas”, then you are no longer in your own self, but trying to propagate a pessimistic mood.
Why? What prompted you to suddenly engage in such communication behavior?
I am not saying that you, deliberately engage in a fear campaign, that is I am not saying you are some sort of “agent”.
Simply, your behavior is symptomatic. It’s an induced behavior, triggered by some messages and memes in the “informational” environment in which you live, and conditioned by a whole life of indoctrination by the media, movies, etc.
It’s actually a very smart and powerful thing of the Enemy, that ability to have people become pessimistic and lose hope in the very moment when determination and faith are needed.
I will reveal you a secret however: that works as long as it is unconscious; once you realize there is a manipulation to induce a given behavior, once you awaken your conscience, then you can fight it and free yourself from it (or not; some people prefer to choose comfort instead; but that is something that was divinely given to humankind: choice)
I wholeheartedly agree with both your posts, I would just instead of
“… once you awaken your conscience…”
say
“… once you awaken your will… ”
The question for the general audience is:
Do you want to win? Do you want to prevail?
Well, the Syrians decided to free their country, and nothing, NOTHING will stop them or change their minds. Is there a 1000 more things go be done? Yes. BUT THEY ARE DOING THEM. God speed Syrians and all their allies/friends who are fighting shoulder to shoulder besides them.
I am not trying anything. I am providing informations I obtained on several medias. And I try to discuss about that to obtain a better assessment about what s really happening.
It s possible to see videos from southfront.org on this website. So I assumed that southfront.org is a reliable source of informations. The fact is that since yesterday southfront has published videos and articles about huge syrian army losses because of turkish strikes I find astonishing. All this makes little sense and I am trying to understand.
I was shocked to see syrian military equipments being destroyed by turkish strikes without any reaction from russia. Maybe those videos are fake? I don t know. But you know the fact that the website which was providing those articles and videos was a website often mentioned in thesaker.is website (one of the very few I trust) made me very worried.
What I am engaged in right now is “please help me to understand what s really going on”.
Had you read pavlo carefully, you would have understood that you ‘understanding what is happening’ has no influence on the outcome of the Syrian war – ‘ the real issue will be settled in the real world’ as pavlo said.
Had you read my post carefully, you would have understood that Syrians and allies already won. Yes won. This fact is being played out on a timescale unfamiliar to people who want instant action and resolution.
Agreed.
Agreed was meant to be in reply to Clarence.
Great summary!
However, “someone who says that she supports democracy and tolerance of all religions and is determined to overthrow the present Government of Syria” is by definition anti-democratic. Democracy and political violence simply cannot be married. So no, she is no exception to the jihadi mindset in Idlib.
From the article by Zuesse:
“The reality of Stoltenberg’s statement (which had been issued at 12:33 Eastern time) was a total humiliation to Erdogan’s fantasies that because of his country’s NATO membership he could get the U.S. to invade Russia.”
That is nonsense.
Erdogan Says Asked Putin to ‘Step Aside’ to Allow Turkey to Deal With Syria ‘Face to Face’ – Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002291078437124-erdogan-says-asked-putin-to-step-aside-to-allow-turkey-to-deal-with-syria-one-on-one—reports/
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to leave Ankara “face to face” with Syrian authorities in the conflict over Idlib during Friday’s talks.
“I asked Mr. Putin: ‘What’s your business there? If you establish a base, do so but get out of our way and leave us face to face with the regime,” Erdogan said, speaking to reporters in Istanbul, his comments cited by AFP.
Erdogan also warned that the “Syrian regime” would “pay the price” for the deaths of Turkish troops in Idlib, and said that if Russia left Damascus one-on-one with Turkey, “we will do what is necessary.”
Erdogan doesn’t want nato to attack Russia, he wants nato to apply diplomatic/geopolitical pressure on Russia so Russia wont help defend Syria against Turk aggression. That is a huge difference from wanting nato to attack Russia.
Also Zuesse didn’t mention anything about nato “article 4”, though he did quote others speculating Turkey was seeking nato aid via “article 5”. Scott Ritter discusses this aspect of the Turk-nato diplomacy regarding the current incidences in Syria:
Even NATO is unwilling to touch Turkey’s Idlib mess with a ten-foot pole
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/481944-nato-turkey-idlib-syria/
In this article, at least 95% is a comment on the Turkish, USA, NATO point of view. This is not different from the usual Western press. Of course, the article does not support the Turkish, USA, NATO point of view, but why concentrate almost uniquely on the enemy? Why not consider the immense sacrifices of the Syrian nation, the heroic struggle of the Syrian nation, the great patriotism of the Syrian nation? How can the good side progress if the concentration is almost uniquely on the bad side?
It is the “west” that seems to worry us most……
“why concentrate almost uniquely on the enemy? Why not consider the immense sacrifices of the Syrian nation, the heroic struggle of the Syrian nation, the great patriotism of the Syrian nation?”
which is chiseling a generation of heroes and a Syrian mark in the emergence of mankind in the tradition of holy Russia and coming week when Sun meets Neptune, remember, Neptune, the cosmic child, is the
lap of all future meaning.
+
for German readers a pretaste:
https://mundanestagebuch.blogspot.com/2020/03/10.html
How much worse will the megalomaniac of the East (Erdoğan) act to try and influence the Russian Federation to back down from helping President Assad recover all of Syria?
Think about who controls the Bosporus Strait; that would be Turkey.
How will President Putin react to President Erdoğan crafting some devious plan to disrupt Russian maritime traffic in the Black Sea based upon the legalities of the 1936 Montreux Convention?
Imagine if Istanbul assumed the authority to inspect and detain every passenger and crew member of a Russian merchant vessel or surface and submarine warship for coronvirus contagion entering or departing from the Black Sea.
Legally this can be done per Article 3 of the convention
(see: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention ).
We read from other sources that suggest some kind of interference may be in the works. Here is an article published on Eurasia Diary citing an unnamed Bulgarian journalist (see: https://ednews.net/en/news/world/418853-turkey-may-limit-or-completely-block-the-bosphorus-strait-for-russian-navy-ships ).
You should read the entire Convention and not cherry-pick Articles. Read Article 22 concerning vessels of war.
Article 20 does give Turkey the right to shut the straits to warships, but that means that Turkey has declared herself a belligerent and that brings other consequences.
If Turkey denies Russian warships passage, then I’m quite sure that Russia can close the straits to ALL shipping. Turkey would not be happy with that!
Article 42 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea grants to States that border straits the authority to institute rules for the safety of navigation and the regulation of maritime traffic for transit passage through those straits. Foreign ships must comply with these regulations.
See: https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm >>> Part III
Turkey has supervisory authority to execute the provisions under Article 24 of the Montreux Convention and implemented such regulations on July 1, 1994 identified as, “Maritime Regulations for the Turkish Straits and the Marmara Region.”
See: https://www.un.org/Depts/los/LEGISLATIONANDTREATIES/PDFFILES/TUR_1994_Regulations.pdf
Here is a 24 page briefing paper titled, “Guidelines for Transiting the Turkish Straits” for OCIMF (Oil Companies International Marine Forum) member companies in PDF format that gives guidance for vessels transiting the straits.
See: https://www.ocimf.org/search/?st=turkish+straits
Obviously Turkish maritime law must conform to the Montreux Convention treaty.and it does for the most part. For example, Article 45 of the regulations addresses health inspections which conforms in principle to Article 3 (merchant vessels) and Article 22 (vessels of war) of the treaty.
The point of my comment was that Erdoğan could make transit passage of Russian vessels through the Bosphorus troublesome using the legality of Turkish maritime regulations, which is recognized by the United Nations. Russia would have to file a dispute with the UN to get this resolved since they believe in the rule of international law as there is no provision in the Montreux Convention for redress of grievances.
UNCLOS does not apply to the straits, the Montreux Convention is in full force. Article 21 states
Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.
Vessels which have passed through the Straits before Turkey has made use of the powers conferred upon her by the preceding paragraph, and which thus find themselves separated from their bases, may return thereto. It is, however, understood that Turkey may deny this right to vessels of war belonging to the State whose attitude has given rise to the application of the present Article.
Should the Turkish Government make use of the powers conferred by the first paragraph of the present Article, a notification to that effect shall be addressed to the High Contracting Parties and to the Secretary-General of the League of Nations.
If the Council of the League of Nations decide by a majority of two-thirds that the measures thus taken by Turkey are not justified, and if such should also be the opinion of the majority of the High Contracting Parties signatories to the present Convention, the Turkish Government undertakes to discontinue the measures in question as also any measures which may have been taken under Article 6 of the present Convention.
The UNCLOS most certainly applies to the Turkish Straits for those nations who are signatories as there is no ruling body to settle disputes under the Montreux Convention. The Council of the League of Nations ceased to exist in April 1946 and was replaced by the newly ratified United Nations in October of 1945. This is not to say the Montreux Convention is defunct, it is in force as you correctly wrote. However any challenges to interpretation is addressed at the UN level.
For example, whenever nations have a disagreement concerning the Turkish Straits, it is raised to the various working committees within the UN. One case happened in November of 1995 when the representative of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, complained to the General Assembly in a letter that Turkish law (“Maritime Regulations for the Turkish Straits and the Marmara Region”) regulating the Bosphorus was out of compliance with the Montreux Convention and led to an economic loss as a result of Russian vessels being detained in accordance with Turkey’s application of its law.
See: https://search.un.org/results.php?tpl=dist_search&tplfilter=documents&lang=en&advanced_search=true&adv_exactPhrase=Montreux%20Convention&adv_resultsperpage=10&adv_sortby=publicationDate >>> the letter identified as A/50/754
Turkey issued a harshly worded rebuttal in December of 1995 that stated since it is not a party to the UNCLOS, it follows the authority granted to it by the Montreux Convention to regulate transit passage for the safety of navigation and to protect the public and the environment through the Bosphorus.
See: https://search.un.org/results.php?tpl=dist_search&tplfilter=documents&lang=en&advanced_search=true&adv_exactPhrase=Montreux%20Convention&adv_resultsperpage=10&adv_sortby=publicationDate >>> the letter identified as A/50/809
Mr. Lavrov did not back down and countered with a follow up letter:
See
https://search.un.org/results.php?tpl=dist_search&tplfilter=documents&lang=en&advanced_search=true&adv_exactPhrase=Montreux%20Convention&adv_resultsperpage=10&adv_sortby=publicationDate >>> the letter identified as A/51/57
To date, the UN has not come to a resolution between the two disagreeable parties (no surprise there).
Here we see Turkey using legal arguments to give itself authority to oversee the vessel traffic in the straits since Russia is a signatory to UNCLOS and has to comply with Part III, Article 42 which gives Turkey the right to establish regulations for transit of passage through the Bosphorus.
Turkey knows the Russian Federation will always seek to resolve international disputes using the various bodies of the United Nations to justify its position. Turkey like its “western partners”, will unilaterally circumvent the rule of law by refusal to ratify a proposal such as the UNCLOS to further regional goals of a political or strategic nature.
Turkey has the advantage within the framework of legal argument due in part to the UN failing to make a decision on whether Erdoğan’s government complies with the Montreux Convention or is in violation of the tenets of the agreement.
Don’t forget Turkey is building a canal of sorts to bypass the straights…would be under their control…..large cargoes can be transhipped in smaller vessels…
The economic advantage of the Kanal Istanbul Project is dubious since the Bosphuros expenses are currently not excessive for transiting merchant vessels in taxes and fees and the delay in moving through the straits is between 1 – 3 days sailing time. But the obvious question is what is the incentive for maritime traffic to use the new canal instead of the current waterway for ingress and egress from/to the Black Sea? Nation States would have to agree at the United Nations level to use the new canal or at least a portion of their merchant tonnage.
This project will cost multiple billions of lira to complete without any guarantees that it will be fruitful for Turkey and its people.
Erdogan is very angry at ”the Syrian regime” and its resolve when dealing with his ”Takfiri moderates” (they behead gently).
Erdogan — who forever comes a cropper against Syria, Russia, Iran, and Lebanon — finds instant consolation playing around with the EU cretins. Neither Turkey, nor the EU minds that this cynical refugee business enterprise does considerable harm to their reputation. Now Erdogan is busy sending people to the Greek border to flood into the EU. The EU cretins, having committed themselves to the Zionazi misadventure in Syria, will comply again.
Unlike in the past, imperialist wars have become a ”mixed blessing” to the West’s middle classes and labour aristocracies. Interesting times ahead.
Putin is being blindsided by the west as was Gorbachev. Very dangerous for Russia.
True. One of the reasons why Russian lost the Cold War, quite naive and foolish. it seems like a nature of Russian people.
Putin is trying to make friends with enemies.
And while he’s getting pummeled with sanctions, he takes delivery of its first A350-900 from France.
I guess the spare parts will be added to blackmail list sooner than later.
A long article. I didn’t read all because there is no need to.
Today I saw a short news clip where Erdogan claimed he destroyed SAA military targets and whatnot, but also Syrian chemical weapons and factories.
We all (who read this site) very well know that Syria destroyed all their chemical weapons long ago. This is fact. Whatever Erdogan is claiming is all bs for internal consumption.
Next topic is the call for help from NATO:
It is baffling how ppl are detached from reality. All Erdogan did was to ask other NATO countries to share the burden from having to feed/host the Wahhabis, i.e. he asked for money. He got rejected and now he is tunneling the head choppers towards Europe, opening the borders and whatnot. I mentioned this already in a comment few days ago. The notion that Erdogan asked NATO to fight Russia is beyond childish.
Take notice that clickbaits is a serious industry, much money to be made, which lead to sensationalistic headlines. Don’t fall for it.
Good call, RATM. Especially this:
Take notice that clickbaits is a serious industry, much money to be made, which lead to sensationalistic headlines. Don’t fall for it.
I am truly honored.
Spasibo.
Mr Eric Zuesse
I am impressed by your, record keeping, arrangement, and presentation displaced in the article.
Bellow are words from your article that are constructive and worthy of cultivation;-
“Why is it that a country can proudly proclaim in a headline that it will commit international aggression in blatant violation of international law and yet not be roundly damned by the publics in all countries for doing such a vile thing”?
This words are like seed, if they fall on the right soil they germinate. What are we as individuals doing, whilst sick people like Erdogan are murdering millions of our fellow human beings?.
The people who run my hapless country have been doing this at least since WWII – Korea, Vietnam, Panama, Somalia, Iraq, Bosnia/Serbia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, etc. We as individuals in my country, more of us than you might think aware of this reality and against it, have been able to do from little to nothing about it. Given the criminals who rule us, what might we do about a petty, but bloody criminal such as Erdogan?
@Robert M. Peters
The unpalatable truth is that, Erdogan,Hittler and the rest of those criminal entities are products of our society. In the past, our societies used a practice called “shunning” as an effective tool against such criminal types.Tyrants thrive on “approval”. Look at Trump, look how he gets animated by the multitudes at his rallies. Look at America (aka Empire), why do you think they spend so much money on propaganda and/or control of the narrative. Approval is key. The question is how do we do it as individuals ? First you purge the Tyrant in you, then in your family and then in the immediate area of your operations. If a million people in a country like Turkey can work seriously in this direction, then a positive result can perhaps be expected in a decade. This is where the church can take a leading role. “Shun the Tyrants” should be a new holy war slogan.
Another article/gambit designed to add gasoline to the fire in Syria:
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/02/httpswwwpoliticocomnews20200228turkey-patriot-missiles-pentagon-118256.html
___________________________________
From the article commentary:
Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey, his henchman, and all the neocons in and out of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) want the US to become directly involved in this battle by providing Turkish forces in Syria air defense from US manned Patriot missile batteries. The Turks could not man the systems themselves if we provided them. They also want the US to declare a “no-fly zone” over Idlib Governorate. Such a zone would be a declaration that the US and little friends would shoot down any military aircraft flying over this piece of Syrian territory without US permission. This would be an act of war by the United States and would cause a de facto state of war to exist between the US and Russia.
The US Department of Defense thinks that such engagement on our part is a stupid neocon conception that has it roots in Israeli desire to destroy the Syrian Government, preferring to have a zone of warring factions where Syria once was, a Hobbesian scene of desolation and a war of all against all, The Israeli idea is as stupid as that of the neocons.
President Trump, the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces, holds the sole power to decide. Let us hope that he decides well.
____________________________________
My comment:
Jeffrey is a total zero zionist, completely controlled obviously by nitenyaahoo and of course pompass.This is exactly what is concerning as nitenyaahoo has an election on Monday, so chaos, threat of war, gasoline on the fire are his trademarks. Pompass/Jeffries are at the ready to do his zionist bidding.
This latest gambit illustrates to my mind the over riding lesson on this in the ME: the zionists…do…not…ever.. give up on their push for moar war.
Followup comment on Col Lang’s commentary above and jeffrey’s idiocy by Andrei Martyanov:
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/02/on-this-and-that.html
Bottom line about all of those Turkish drone attacks prob is mostly bull sheet and turkish propaganda.
Another note by a fairly commenter over at Moon, who has done some detailed analysis of the videos, says that the buildings hit in the videos by the Turks appears to more resembling buildings in Libya than in Idlib. I have no way of judging whether those comments are accurate but just saying FWIW. It to my mind would not be beyond Turk propagandists.
Good article. Erdogan probably has a plan, though.
At least Erodgan is smart enough this time to check and make sure NATO would back an attack on Russia. NATO either backs Turkey in Syria, or Erdogan has the pretext to pull out of Idlib.
If a Russian ‘attack’ on his forces and realized threat of mass migration to Europe does not move NATO into Syria, Erdogan can clearly see he’s being played the fool to remain there.
Erdogan is probably going to try and deal with Russia; his way in Libya for Putin’s way in Syria. Russia can’t necessarily openly abandon Haftar, but it was always a strange alliance as the GNC is the internationally recognized government.
Supposedly the U.S. back Haftar too, but its a soft alliance. Could be Haftar is just an American spoiler in Libya and never wants peace. Russia’s line has been to always follow international law, which is on the side of the GNC.
Turkey has the right to intervene on the behalf of the GNC, and wants to extend regional power and essentially snatch Libya from EU orbit. Its not a bad play.
Russia is in an odd diplomatic spot. If they can’t fined a diplomatic accommodation they may be forced to visibly abandon an ally or fight Turkey in Libya.
Trading Syria for Libya is a good trade for Erdogan and puts him back in control, focusing on Turkey’s, rather than European, Russian or American geopolitical needs on the Med.
Wonder what Saif al Gaddafi is up to. Libya keeps putting off the election he expects to win; everyone else is determined to vote with bullets.
Could this end up being the US and NATO’s “Suez Moment”?
“US and NATO’s. Suez Moment”
was the Georgian war 2008 and the picture that memorializes that event was the Russians towing a captured US Humvee.
… and Saakashvili eating his necktie.
It is clear that the atmosphere for “upping the ante” is being set in N. Syria. I would not put it past the Israelis to invade further into the Golan Heights and/or Lebanon ( after all, securing buffer zones is all the rage lately) and of course it will be under some kind of pretext .
Hopefully the Russians will hit Turkey in Syria and hit it hard ( hope they are talking to the Turkish Generals) . It looks as if there will be some kind of big power trade off but in the meantime it is Something we can only guess at. The key which cannot be bartered is the integrity of N. Syria and Eastern Syria both of which are held by hostile forces.
After all, how many of us could have anticipated the blatant assassination of Soleimani? Beware of Saudis and Israelis proposing peace talks.
The middle to the end of the month does not look good for peace in the midEast. When is the next Israeli election scheduled?
Since 2016 the Russian Generals and Intel Services have “impressed” on the Turk Generals and Intel Services that the consequences for any attack or incident will be monumental for Turkey.
Notice that all the bellicosity our of Turkey is usually from political figures, not from those upon whose heads Kalibr missiles will fall.
Turkey, militarily, is ill-positioned to fight Syria, much less to take on Russia. It has 18 observation-control posts that are now surrounded by Syrian forces. Perhaps, as many as a thousand Turk soldiers are trapped.
Next, most importantly, the Turk AF cannot fly to cover their ground troops. This is why we see very expensive Turk drones being used and being shot down. They cannot risk violating the Russian-controlled skies.
Additionally, Syria just announced a no-fly zone over Idlib. Only Russian and Iranian planes are allowed over Idlib.
Then, there is the internal security and border security against the Kurds which causes the Turks to commit huge numbers of troops to assure its internal stability. So, it really is in no position to start a fight it cannot sustain, cannot win without devastating losses and no hope of triumph.
Typically, the first blows the Russians strike will be to command and control, a form of decapitation. The Turk Generals understand this very clearly.
Well, Turkish AF violating Syrian airspace and shooting down Syrian SU only to be met with the usual absence of spine and consistence from Москва that is understood as green light for more agression in Hell Aviv, Ankara and DC. And without principled air support/control the heart of the ground resistance (Iran, Hezb, SAA) will be stuck, at best. Never trust the British, the Istabullu or the moscovite! (The average Russian is a different animal, a very trustworthy one) https://www.rt.com/news/482053-syrian-jets-downed-turkey/
I saw emagnier’s tweet that RU AF did not receive orders to support an offensive in Idlib. He is a reliable source. This is strange .
On the other hand, an anonymous Serbian twitterer re-tweeted a Russian user who describes heavy air traffic at Latakia. Allegedly 7 Ilyushin’s arrived in the last 24 h. (Possibly carrying heavy artillery??) Is this more than usual? Can anyone confirm/ deny?
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1234102851594588160
“He (magnier) is a reliable source.”
No he is not.
“The Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed it shot down two Syrian Su-24 bombers after one of its combat drones was destroyed by Syrian air defenses. Later, SANA reported that the Syrian military shot down a total of three Turkish drones on Sunday.”
So SANA only confirmed the downed drone, and the Turkish MoD claims 2 jets shot down. But these two statements are put together to make it seem as SANA said both.
So, go pound some sand.
Article 5 states:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
It does not specifically state an “attack on a member states territory.” So, in theory for example, the US could invade China, find themselves in a losing position, and then demand NATO members to come to their aid. I seriously doubt any nation would sign on to such a condition, so an “attack on a member states territory” is certainly a precondition though not specifically stated.
There will be much bluster and propaganda support for Turkey, but NATO will not come to Turkey’s aid, since war with Russia over Idlib is a proposition way beyond the point of diminished returns.
.
Yup. The line:
” …by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary…”
… pretty much guts Article 5 as a mutual defense treaty. Each NATO state may take such action as that state deems necessary. Including doing nothing but sending a stiff diplomatic note to an aggressor of another NATO country.
In theory, a popular outcry might force politicians to armed support of a fellow NATO nation, but in realty the MSM is so controlled, such an outcry would not be reflective of the real population but a powerful elite faction.
If the U.S. was attacked, the economic and political threat posed by not supporting the U.S. would certainly motivate armed support of the U.S.., but Turkey hardly carries that weight.
The U.S. invaded Syria; obviously such action as Syria deemed necessary was not to directly go formally to war with the U.S..
We already know that US/NATO does not respect international laws, so why would they respect Article 5.
If there is a war party, they would find a way to deal with it, incl. false flag.
Should Turkey launch offensive against Syria, Russia should assassinate Erdogan, even if they have to use low-yield hypersonic nuclear missile. it would send a signal as well.
why a hypersonic when a simple well trained agent would do..one bullet..or an injection through a freckle while he sleeps…?
a signal to whom..the west?
does nto matter! we know the west and their psychopathy…no such signal will work. they are suicidal anyway so why waste the time.
dont kill one extra Turk or damage heir country for the lunatic of Ankara. send the agent!..prolly a Turk himself so he slips through unnoticed
There are time when you have to take a risk, and this is the one.
Turks won’t stop, nor sit at the table to talk to you unless they get a blow.
A tiny little Kinzhal with modified warhead with hand writing on a shell would just do that.
The West would noticed, because it would be REAL. Article 5 would not be invoked, because Turkey is here an aggressor, and Russia have a right to protect a small detachment in Syria.
How do you intend to protect Russian in Syria ?
We all know, that Turks could wiped them out in a matter of few days.
if Russia looses Syria, they will loose a prestige, the stakes here are high.
As painful as it is credit must be given to Erdogan for playing Putin so masterfully in the Syrian gambit. It cannot be said that Russia was not aware of Turkish support for terrorists in Syria. Yet Putin continued to deal with Turkey as an equal player in the conflict rather than an agitator. Even the best snake charmers eventually get bitten.
Putin’s moment has arrived, this is nothing less than the pivot upon which the entirety of his Presidency now rests, and perhaps the future of Russia as a unified nation, if his judgment fails him.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group is now in the Mediterranean Sea and probably will sail towards Syria. Will the US back Erdogan and both launch a large aerial campaign to destroy and send Russian forces home while at the same time bomb Syria back to the stone age?
Something big seems to be brewing.. Hope to be wrong though.
Well, that was expected – it was just a matter of time, before Erdogan turn on Russia and Syria over Idlib. After all, we have here an opportunistic megalomaniac, who sees the syrian debacle as a good opportunity for a land grab, and killing some kurds.
Two Syrian Planes Downed by Turkey Over Idlib, Pilots Safe – Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003011078443668-two-syrian-planes-downed-by-turkey-over-idlib-pilots-safe–reports/
Turkish military shoots down 2 Syrian jets, crew parachuted to safety
https://www.rt.com/news/482053-syrian-jets-downed-turkey/
Different info in each, news still sketchy.
Vot tak,
The RT news put Turkish MoD claims of 2 downed jets together with the SANA report that acknowledges downed drones, making it seem both ‘facts’ come from SANA. A usual propaganda tactic, where only the last info stays in the readers head while the preceding info is implicitly accepted as truth.
RATM
“The RT news put Turkish MoD claims of 2 downed jets together with the SANA report that acknowledges downed drones, making it seem both ‘facts’ come from SANA.”
The RT report doesn’t contain embedded links, but the Sputnik report has a link to the SANA report of 2 lost aircraft:
https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=187085
“SANA reporter: Turkish regime’s terrorist forces target two Syrian aircrafts in Idleb province, pilots used parachutes and landed safely.”
So it appears the 2 Syrian aircraft were downed. What is unclear is what type they were and how they got shot down. Also unclear how many Turk drones Syria shot down on Sunday, claims of 3 to 7 total reported. Another article noted Syrian aa artillery used against Turk drones.
Posted the articles because this is a new dimension of the conflict and might escalate into a worse situation. Something to watch for happening.
OK, yes RT didn’t have the SANA link. But I read the article from the link you provided and it says it is from a military source, no pics or videos. I wish the Syrian MoD would officially confirm it.
Questions arise:
How does the source know if it was a Turkish jet and not a NATO one from Irklik base or an Israeli one with transponders set to appear as a turkish jet?
Further. If the Syrians used AA on the drones, why not on the ‘yet-to-be-confirmed’ Turkish jets?
Tensions are high, and many chase the headlines. Mistakes can be made, even by trusted sources.
I 100% believe Turkey and Erdogan have no interest in Idlib nor the head choppers. Geopolitically, Turkey’s security concern was the possibility of a Kurdish state. This threat was removed by the Russian Turkish Iranian Syrian joint effort to reclaim NE Syria and push the Americans out. Remember, Turkey was only interested in Idlib to prevent Kurdistan getting access to the Mediterranean Sea. Now they don’t need to be there. Obviously, Erdogan doesn’t need the crazies in Turkey proper to instigate problems so he will let them loose to meet their fate. Only problem for Erdogan was the burden from the influx of refugees, but his solution is to send them to Europe.
All in all, as I said,Turkey and Erdogan have no interest in Idlib nor the head choppers.
RATM
“How does the source know if it was a Turkish jet and not a NATO one from Irklik base or an Israeli one with transponders set to appear as a turkish jet?
Further. If the Syrians used AA on the drones, why not on the ‘yet-to-be-confirmed’ Turkish jets?”
I noticed the Syrian government isn’t confirming, or denying, a lot of the recent news of the fighting. Practicing the “less info we provide, the less info the enemy can gleem from it” philosophy.
“I 100% believe Turkey and Erdogan have no interest in Idlib nor the head choppers. Geopolitically, Turkey’s security concern was the possibility of a Kurdish state. This threat was removed by the Russian Turkish Iranian Syrian joint effort to reclaim NE Syria and push the Americans out. Remember, Turkey was only interested in Idlib to prevent Kurdistan getting access to the Mediterranean Sea. Now they don’t need to be there. Obviously, Erdogan doesn’t need the crazies in Turkey proper to instigate problems so he will let them loose to meet their fate. Only problem for Erdogan was the burden from the influx of refugees, but his solution is to send them to Europe.”
I don’t disagree. The Turks may also be looking at their Idlib occupation as a “bargining chip” for negotiating concessions from Syria or her allies?
It seems to that there is an overflow of martyrs in the Islamic countries!
A war crimes tribunal is waiting for this Turkish state terrorist:
https://southfront.org/unverified-video-shows-turkish-troops-torturing-syrian-captives-in-greater-idlib/
———————–
Redundant caps removed – MOD
Kremlin Responds to Erdogan’s Request That Russia ‘Step Aside’ in Syria
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003011078444970-kremlin-responds-to-erdogans-request-that-russia-step-aside-in-syria/
“Russia is the only country which has troops in Syria on a legal basis and at the request of the legitimate Syrian government,” Peskov said, speaking to Russia 1’s Moscow.Kremlin.Putin programme on Sunday when asked to comment on President Erdogan’s remarks about what “business” Russia has in Syria.
“All other military forces of other countries are in Syria in contravention of the norms and principles of international law,” Peskov added.
According to the Kremlin spokesman, all of the actions by the Syrian military in Idlib in recent days have been aimed at fighting terrorists. Turkey, on the other hand, has failed to meet its obligations under the Sochi agreements, he said.
“We know that under the Sochi agreements from a year ago, it was the Turkish side which was required to ensure a regime of inactivity by these terrorist elements. Unfortunately, Turkey has not fulfilled these obligations, and the terrorists went on the offensive against Syria’s armed forces,” Peskov said.
Peskov recalled that in addition to attacking the Syrian Army, the terrorists were also attacking Russian military units in the Arab Republic. “Therefore,” he noted, “regardless of any statements, the fight against these terrorist elements will continue.”
It’s time to stop pretending.Russia will not fight the Turks to save the Syrians,they just won’t.Today the Turks shot down 2 Syrians jets in Syrian airspace and no one did anything. The facts are that either the Syrian air defenses don’t work as they are said to.Or,the Russians won’t let the Syrians use them for protection.There are no other valid possibilities for that situation.
So having established those facts,what is to be done? First,see if the Iranians will provide some of their Iranian made air defense systems to Syria. Now that patriotic forces in Iran won the elections the other day ,announced even in the Russian media (smh in disgust) as “hardliners win in Iran”. They might provide them.And start really defending their airspace.And if if they can get from that same source something like what the Houthi’s seem to have. Artillery and missiles able to strike targets in Turkey as well as anywhere inside Syria.And provide Syrian forces with manpads of their own to bring the fear of God to the Turks. And make a deal with the Kurds inside Turkey to provide them with weapons. Bring a little “jihadism” of your own to the Sultan at home.So he gets the message to get out of Syria or pay a fatal price.Trying to make an “agreement” with the Turks is as crazy as trying to make one with the US. Both only can be dealt with from a position of strength.Appealing to them to do “what’s right” is a joke.
The Russians are playing a double game:
On the one hand, Russia wants to wean Turkey from America/NATO with the Turkstream project and weapons sales (like the S-400).
On the other hand, it wants to retain influence and support in Syria–which Turkey is attacking.
This is why Russia is hesitant to go after Turkey proper.
Turkey is also playing a double game, as it seeks to extract concessions from the America/NATO bloc and from Russia by playing them against each other.
Double game upon double game.
On what a tangled weave we weave…..
Both sides only have so many weapons, if you shoot your wad in one theater, you may lose the battle in a different one.
The military disaster is moving closer to syria, if the iraq theater suddenly becomes active, the u.s. military brains could be scrambled trying to manage both theaters at the same time.
I hope they brought extra deodorant, they are going to need it this month.
Yes it’s a double game, but not by Russia, but by Turkey.
https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/01/erdogan-idlib-is-mine/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
If Elijah Magnier’s account is accurate, then Erdogan is treacherous beyond belief:
a.) He never informed Russia or Iran in advance about Turkish soldiers’ presence in Idlib, embedded with the terrorists . Russia bombed and killed 36 Turkish troops by accident two days ago.
b.) When Putin unilaterally ceased fire to re-establish de-confliction channels with Turkey, Erdogan took advantage of this pause to launch a drone attack the Syrian Army.
Hopefully Saker will have an update on this ugly situation very soon.
“Russia bombed and killed 36 Turkish troops by accident two days ago.”
This nonsense has already been debunked.
Live Updates: Russian Air Forces Did Not Carry Out Strikes in Area Where Turkish Servicemen Were Hit
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078422764-nine-turkish-troops-killed-under-fire-in-syrias-idlib-governor-of-hatay-province-claims/
“05:51
Russian Air Forces Did Not Carry Out Strikes in Area Where Turkish Servicemen Were Hit – Moscow
“Russian Aerospace Forces have not used aviation in the area of Behun”, the official statement said.”
Magnier is not a reliable source.
There does seem to have been some kind of ****up in situations that were not fully thought through or or worst case scenario not being planned for…..or the high complex stress of the Idlib situation has proven to expose weaknesses.
Those planes shot down are expensive…plus all the other Syrian hardware so claimed to be destroyed and captured in recent setbacks ……one wonders if and hopes there is plenty in reserve…does Syria have to purchase replacements or will they be on some kind of lendlease…or Russia is already sending replacements ASAP with a box of chocolates…..?
Presumably all hardware captured by SAA from militants jihadists could be used by them in return….is it compatable with SAA systems….or is just stored disposed of?????????