By Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog
After weeks of belligerent rhetoric and preparations, Turkey finally invaded Afrin last week. It came as no surprise that Turkey would go for this vulnerable Kurdish-held region in north-western Syria first. So how does this affect the war? Previous Turkish incursions have been limited and aimed at stopping what Ankara deemed to be Kurdish expansionism right at Turkey’s border. Turkish President Erdogan has recently said that this incursion won’t be limited to just Afrin but could also target Manbij, another YPG/SDF stronghold in the eastern parts of the Aleppo province. Operation “Olive Branch”, which has seen Turkish backed jihadist groups being involved as well, is aimed at destroying the Kurdish held Afrin canton. Capturing the Afrin canton would be a strong boost for the Jihadist forces in northern Syria as that would link up the Idlib region with the northern Aleppo region once more (the lines were severed during the Syrian Army’s 2016 northern Aleppo offensive).
So what does this move mean for Washington? This situation has pitted two U.S allies against each other in what almost sounds like a funny situation if it weren’t for the tragedy behind it all, which leaves Washington in an awkward position. Washington must now choose between Turkey, a long time NATO ally, or the Kurdish militias who have been Washington’s closest partner in Syria. The answer should be clear to anyone who has a basic understanding of the politics of the region. It is absurd to think that Washington would intervene against its NATO ally, thus undermining the entire alliance and what it stands for, and sure enough Washington made its choice after Pentagon spokesman Adrian Rankine-Galloway, threatened to cut US backing if any SDF units would go to Afrin to defend the Kurdish held towns. On Tuesday an YPG spokesman pleaded with the US for protection against the invading Turkish forces and their proxies but to no avail. What did the Kurdish leadership expect?
Erdogan was also emboldened by the generally indifferent international responses to Turkey’s recent operation. Washington and Europe have expressed “concern” and are calling for “restraint.” More importantly though, they are expressing an understanding of Turkey’s needs to secure its borders.
Noting that Turkey was the only NATO member with an active insurgency inside its borders, US Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters as he was flying to Asia that “Turkey had legitimate security concerns” in Syria. Mattis also said Turkey had acted “candidly” and advised Washington before launching its operation, adding that they are “working now on the way ahead.” Turkey also informed members of the United Nations Security Council and countries with a stake in Syria, such as Iran, of its intentions in Afrin before mounting its operation. Except for some comments about Iran’s wish that the Afrin operation would end quickly, Tehran has remained silent on this matter, indicating indirect approval of this operation.
It is also evident that Ankara got a nod of approval from Moscow, despite Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s description of the operations as “mad”. Moscow stated that it was closely following the situation in Afrin and was concerned by the news about the Turkish military engagement in the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russia was withdrawing its troops from Syria’s Afrin, the target of the Turkish offensive. It is clear that Russia won’t stand in Turkey’s way as the consequences would be disastrous and all the hard work Moscow has put into the de-escalation zones would be undone. This offensive could be seen as a form of a blessing in disguise for the Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance despite its short term implications. Washington would not allow the Syrian Army and it’s allies to engage Washington’s SDF proxy forces, but having Turkey doing that work for them means that Washington cannot intervene with force against its own ally. Thus replacing the SDF with Turkish backed jihadists offers Syria and its allies a chance to engage these proxies in the long term without having to worry about Washington’s reactions. Whatever Syria and its allies express overtly, there’s no denying that the Moscow-Tehran-Damascus axis is not so worried over Turkey’s moves.
Ankara’s move gives Washington a bit of a disadvantage as Washington is now forced to show its true colours to the Kurds. The only way Washington would be able to save some face would be if they’d make a deal with Ankara that would divide northern Syria into zones of influence where Turkey would have influence over Idlib and Aleppo regions while the US would hold influence over the land East of the Euphrates. Despite Ankara threatening to attack Manbij as well, it seems Erdogan has to settle in the end for the territory it gained from the YPG and ISIL with Operation Euphrates Shield and its current operation — unless, that is, it decides to strike Manbij and the lands east of the Euphrates held by the YPG with US troops to support them. That scenario seems highly unlikely as it would mean a direct confrontation with US troops stationed in Manbij.
In the end, the Kurds will be the big losers of these turn of events, because they have failed to draw lessons from their own past where imperialist forces have used them as proxies and then abandoned them. The Kurds are being punished today for putting their faith in the wrong people all these years.
Turkish Hezbollah: Erdogan’s proxies in the Middle East?
http://bit.ly/2ncMLOa
A few additional points:
-1- Turkey is likely a to reach a stalemate (not a win) at Afrin.
http://www.unz.com/pcockburn/syrian-kurdish-forces-launch-powerful-counterattack-against-turkey/
-2- We do not know what the U.S. told the Kurds before this happened. It is quite likely that this is another “Barzani” situation where the local leaders ignored advice.
-3- The situation may already be wrapping up. There are several as yet unconfirmed reports that the Kurds will yield their positions in and around Afrin to Assad’s forces. If true, Erdogan will have to retreat or make clear his intentions to invade without the Kurdish excuse.
If #3 is accurate and Turkey pulls back, Scoring the engagement:
Major Loss — Turkey — Offended their NATO ally and got nothing
Minor Loss — Kurds — Giving up non-core territory
Tie — U.S. Current administration — Had very little at stake
Win — Syria/Russia — Obtains control over additional territory. Excludes Turkey.
Minor Loss — Iran — Wanted a conflagration in the North to justify their continued presence, but no direct impact on their forces.
Major Loss — Globalists/Neocons/U.S. Establishment — Repudiates the prior Obama/Clinton position
A Barzani situation? Not even close.
The Kurds had a chance to yield to the Syrian government prior to Turkey’s operation even beginning- Russia made the offer- they refused.
The Kurds reported this themselves, access two articles reporting this news from the link below
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2018/01/kurds-rejected-russian-protection-in.html
“Officials from Syrian Kurdish administration said Russia offered Kurds protection if they hand over Afrin region to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces”
“Kurds rejected the offer, officials said, but the withdrawal of Russian forces right before the operation indicates a deal, they said.”
“Major Loss — Turkey — Offended their NATO ally and got nothing”
A Kurdish state along Turkey’s southern border is an existential threat to Turkey. If the Kurds in Turkey followed suit, Turkey would lose half its territory. Preventing a Kurdistan is a major win for Turkey.
The US is also not an ally. It has already attempted to replace Erdogan with the even more Islamist Gulen. The US m,ilitary wants a Kurdistan so it can pull out of Incirlik if necessary. No Kurdistasn, US kicked out of Incirlik = major US loss.
The Kurds have annexed Syrian territory with the aid of the US. This fact isn’t mentioned. Why?
” this vulnerable Kurdish-held region in north-western Syria”
Kurdish held? Means annexed unlawfully- btw the US has conducted airstrikes in this “vulnerable area” previously- against Khorosan?
I personally don’t buy the Kurd/victim narrative as commonly presented.
“In the end, the Kurds will be the big losers of these turn of events, because they have failed to draw lessons from their own past “
They’re either the most corrupt persons imaginable or the stupidest people alive?
It was the US backed Kurds who chose to ally themselves with the USrael for their own gain
It was a conscious choice by these persons.
The ordinary Kurds, like most ordinary folk ,everywhere are just lost in the shuffle.
Well said, Penny. You might as well say the Kurds – i.e. their fascist (Trotskyite) US/NATO/Israel aligned regime – have annexed Syrian and Iraqi territory with the aid of (or simply dressed up as) ISIS.
These western backed terrorists have been slaughtering, ethnically cleansing, and terrorizing Syrians (esp. Syrian Turkmen, but also Yazidis, Orthodox Christians, Arabs, and so forth) in (northern) Syria and Iraq for years.
It seems Erdogan’s Turkey now finally acts, not on US/NATO’s, but on Turkey and northern Syria’s behalf.
Thierry Meyssan (Voltaire Network) has (seemingly) the most truthful account of what’s (been) going on in US occupied (Sunni) Iraq and Syria: http://www.voltairenet.org/article199451.html
Laika von old Monkshusen: “You might as well say the Kurds – i.e. their fascist (Trotskyite) US/NATO/Israel aligned regime – have annexed Syrian and Iraqi territory with the aid of (or simply dressed up as) ISIS.”
Hi Laika!
I’ve said exactly that since November of 2014- When I published two posts that detailed my observations regarding the obvious collusion between the two groups both supported by the US.
Kurd/ ISIS Symbiosis – The Impending Destruction of Turkey.
Pt.2- Kurd/ ISIS Symbiosis- The impending destruction of Turkey
“These western backed terrorists have been slaughtering, ethnically cleansing, and terrorizing Syrians (esp. Syrian Turkmen, but also Yazidis, Orthodox Christians, Arabs, and so forth) in (northern) Syria and Iraq for years.”
I’m all to aware of this :(
Thanks to this commonly presented victim meme/ which so heavily resembles the storyline created to justify the state of Israel.
stateless people needing a state
What is lost on most people is that the word Kurd = Nomad. This information is widely available.
“The term Kurd in the Middle Persian documents simply means nomad and tent-dweller ”
Making it incorrect to describe them as stateless people in need of state- clearly their name tells us they never had one.
Then there is the issue of their duplicity… of course not all Kurds. But the ones who chose this route vs the many others choices that could have been made.
Meyssan’s article is conjecture, he does not give any indication of what his interpretation is based on, and the few facts he does give are nothing new. Here is a much better analysis: /uncle-sam-dumps-the-kurds-yet-again/
My two pennies:
‘Kurdistan’ as a second Israel is the cornerstone of Greater Israel dreams. USrael seems incapable to see what happens outside their tunnel vision and like a dog return always to his vomit.
Looks like the Hegemon Planed to Partition Syria in 3 Regions. First Kurdistan, East of Euphrates. Second North West governorates with an exit on the Sea, and what remain would be Syria. If Afrin and surroundings would be occupied by Turkey, then it never ever would be Syria’s again.
Actually, Turkey has always been slated for partition; check out the New Middle East maps. A big chunk of Turkey is labelled “Free Kurdistan”; howzat for Orwellian gibberish by the masters of discourse…
https://www.globalresearch.ca/plans-for-redrawing-the-middle-east-the-project-for-a-new-middle-east/3882
Article first published in 2006, so twas always thus, i.e. Turkey’s operation has the blessing of the Russians et al. Or so I think.
Very thoughtful, close knit assessment by attorney Ziad Fadel in SyrPer. A long term plan is coming together, scripted at the very start of NATZO’s invasion, when Dr.Assad anticipated their Eretz Kurdistan oil state, and forestalled it by offering the Kurds autonomy within Syria. This agreement still stands, it is supported by Russia and Turkey, and the Israeli-flag-waving “national home for the Zio-Kurds” havent a legal leg to stand on. So it will boil down to “Justice comes from the barrel of a gun” or guns. If Erdogan plays straight I imagine this will line up as Turkey, Syria, Hezb, Iraq, Iran, and Russia vs the Haganah of Erez Kurdistan led (or rather misled) by several thousand FUKZUSA black ops. Like their cousin Kurdish Iraqis who saw reason, those Kurdish Syrians who listen to the siren voices from NATZO still have a choice — Dr.Assad is famous for his excellent (and politically very shrewd) amnesty to all those poor misguided Syrian rebels who have been led astray by the tempting offer of fresh-baked cookies from the USA. But if the Kurdish Syrians, unlike their Iraqi cousins, insist on dying for the AZC dream of an Eretz Kurdistan owned by Rothschild and run by Israelis then, Ziad Fadel concludes, we are looking at a tragedy scripted by utter morons.
Hi Dr, is there any chance you could link that article you’re talking about – not quite sure where to find it – sorry and thanks
In most articles/analyses/essays this latest Turkish surge into Afrin is presented as a good thing for Syria’s governmental forces and allies.
I’m still not convinced. I do see the authors benefit for SAA of attacking Turkish supported militia instead of US-backed Kurd in Afrin. But what if the Turkeys army is there to stay.
Many times during this Syria’s crisis have foreign actors and international institutions like UN shown that international law can be broken without consequences. Taking this into account what will hold Turkey back from occupying the grounds it has won during this surge?
Once occupied most of syria along it’s turkey’s border will be in NATO’s control.
They can’t attack Turkey or the US directly so for the short/medium term there won’t be much they can do about it.
Yes, Turkey appears to be unsatisfied with US/EU/NATO. Turkish rhetoric, buying Russian airdefense and an unsuccessful coupe among things. But I also know Erdogan to be opportunistic and not the most reliable partner and a Turkish history filled with backstabbing politics. Plus Erdogan was never been a friend/ally of Syria, quiet the opposite in fact. Just look at their backed ‘rebels’ and ratlines that they made possible.
So in short I’m not that confident Turkey will play a positive role for Syria. And I wonder what the odds are of Turkey actually occupying ‘liberated’ grounds and what Syria’s options are if this happens. Since relying on international law to see justice doesn’t look promising.
The option for Syria is to go to War at some stage against the occupier, nothing less is an option, what happens if the Turks become best friends with the US again? I will tell you what, NATO will occupy Northern Syria, this has happened because when the US and Turkey first crossed the border they were not dealt with, now it will be a much harder job.
Such a delight to read, very insightful.
well, the Kurds seem to be rethinking their refusal to let syrian Government troops take command positions last week
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-kurdish-government-officially-calls-syrian-army-protect-afrin-turkey/
With all due respect to individual human rights of Kurds, but they never in their entire history had a country of their own, as they are all former nomads. Kurds are in fact a mixture of Persians and Turks, speaking a language which is also a mixture of Persian and Turkish, with Persian being more pronounced. As former nomads, they moved into both Iraq and Syria, and now they have the audacity to claim Iraqi and Syrian oil fields.
The US never intended to use Kurds to fight ISIS, because the US created ISIS. The intention was for the Kurds to grab Iraqi and Syrian oilfields, which would later on be controlled by US oil companies. The Kurds foolishly agreed to US backing without bothering to check the history books.Even more foolishly they rejected a Russian proposal that all Kurdish held territory in Syria be handed over to the Syrian military. The Kurds now have Turkish troops in front of them and Syrian troops behind them.
There is little question that Erdogan got a wink from Russia and Syria to attack the Kurds. When Turkish planes launched their attacks, Syrian AA missiles stood still. Erdogan, who backed ISIS, is now indirectly a Syrian ally. Times change.
And the US ? Another catastrophic political defeat for them. Not only has ISIS been defeated, but now their new proxies, the Kurds, are facing defeat. This means that their third proxies, the so-called Free Syrian Army, made up of new mercenaries, will have even less land on which to maneuver. Trump better withdraw his military from Syria. Not only is the US military there contrary to international law, but it has found itself in a pretty dangerous tactical situation. Analysts have pointed out that if someone was to cut US supply lines in northern Syria, then the US troops will find themselves in a pretty catastrophic situation.
Just read an incredible tweet from almasdar news: The Kurds are apparently asking Syrian government to help them against Turkey.
“We call out for the Syrian government to protect Afrin and Syria’s borders by deploying the Syrian Armed Forces to protect Afrin borders.”
But maybe it’s joke…?
@BF You are exactly correct. Although the anti-Assad coalition appears to have had subtly different, although convergent goals, a major objective, perhaps the most important objective, is the theft of Syrian oil. The Kurds appear to have been intended to be set up as local managers. The oil would not belong to them, strictly speaking, although they would receive rent payments for the administration. This is exactly the way in which the old great oil concessions worked before the 70s. As to why this is so critical, there is evidence that the Saudi oil fields are near a point of critical depletion. If so, this would set off a scramble to seize whatever oil resources are not well defended.
yeah, I read that the US is about to overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production -~~~!!!
That’s because Trump has reneged on all the environmental protection of parks in the US – and Alaska – what a creep – as if oil is the way forward – all the devestation of endangered wildlife – and he’s just put a huge tax on Solar energy – even for people producing it in the US I think –
The Kurds certainly are human Dodos. If they continue their behavior, the would be extinct very soon.
thank you so much for this article – I finally ‘get it’ – I haven’t understood fully the whole confusion – and that part about the Syrians being able to deal with the FSA – Turkish terrorists – in the long run – is very enlightening –
And as far as Theirry Messyan – just Google “Pseudo-Kurdistan” for a contrarian viewpoint that does seem to be backed up by facts. Real simply, Alan Juppe and Erdogan came up with this idea to ship all Kurds to “Rojava”. If that is, in fact, true, it seems to have backfired.
I read a first hand account written in the late 1800’s that the kurds raided for a living.