by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
Erdogan has lost his parliamentary majority and must now establish a coalition with the far-right Nationalist Action Party; given the latter is anti-Western, the road ahead points in only one direction: Eurasian integration
To the utter despair of stoic defenders of “Western values,” Europe is now condemned to suffer two populist autocracies on its eastern borders: Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey.
For the EU’s political leaders, the only accepted narrative is blanket, hysterical condemnation of “illiberal democracies” distorted by personal rule, xenophobia and suppression of free speech. And that also applies to the strongmen in Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
These EU leaders and the institutions that support them – political parties, academia, mainstream media – simply can’t understand how and why their bubble does not reflect what voters really think and feel.
Instead, we have irrelevant intellectuals mourning the erosion of the lofty Western mission civilisatrice (civilizing mission), investing in a philosophical maelstrom of historical and even biblical references to catalog their angst.
They are terrified by so many Darth Vaders – from Putin and Erdogan to Xi and Khamenei. Instead of understanding the new remix to Arnold Toynbee’s original intuition – History is again on the move – they wallow in the mire of The West against The Rest.
They cannot possibly understand the mighty process of Eurasia reconfiguration. And that includes not being able to understand why Recep Tayipp Erdogan is so popular in Turkey.
Sultan and CEO
Profiting from a large turnout of up to 85% and fresh from obtaining 52.5% of the popular vote – thus preventing a run-off – Erdogan is now ready to rule Turkey as a fascinating mix of Sultan and CEO.
Under Turkey’s new presidential arrangement – an Erdogan brainchild – a prime minister is no more, a job Erdogan himself held for three terms before he was elected as president for the first time in 2014.
Erdogan may be able to rule the executive and the judiciary, but that’s far from a given in the legislature.
With 42.5% of the votes and holding 295 seats, Erdogan’s AKP, for the first time in 16 years, lost its parliamentary majority and must now establish a coalition with the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP).
The doomsday interpretation spells out a toxic alliance between intolerant political Islam and fascistic extreme-right – both, of course, hardcore nationalist. Reality though is slightly more nuanced.
Considering that the MHP is even more anti-Western than the AKP, the roadmap ahead, geopolitically, may point to only one direction: Eurasian integration. After all, Turkey’s perennially plagued EU accession process is bound to go nowhere; for Brussels, Erdogan is little else than an unwelcomed, illiberal, faux democrat.
In parallel, Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism has been given a reality check with the failure of his – and former Prime Minister Davutoglu’s – Syria strategy.
The Kurdish obsession though won’t go away, especially after the success of operations ‘Euphrates Shield’ and ‘Olive Branch’ against the US-backed YPG – which Erdogan brands as an extension of the dreaded PKK. Ankara now holds the previously Kurdish-dominated Afrin, and now, under a US-Turkey deal, the YPG must also leave Manbij. Even after giving up on “Assad must go”, Ankara for all practical purposes will keep a foothold in Syria, and is invested in the Astana peace process alongside Russia and Iran.
Take it to the bridge
Turkish politics used to be a yo-yo between the center-right and the center-left, but always with the secular military as puppet masters. The religious right was always contained – as the military were terrified of its popular appeal across Anatolia.
When the AKP started its political winning streak in 2002, they were frankly pro-Europe (there was no subsequent reciprocity). The AKP also courted the Kurds, who in their absolute, rural, majority were religiously conservative. The AKP and Erdogan even allied themselves with the Gulenists. But once they solidified their electoral hold, the going got much tougher.
The turning point may have been the repression of the Gezi Park movement in 2013. And then, in 2015, the pro-Kurdish – and left-wing – Democratic Peoples’ Party (HDP) started to emerge and capture votes from the AKP. Erdogan’s response was to fashion a strategy of mingling the Democratic Peoples’ Party with the PKK – as in “terrorists,” which is absurd.
Party leaders were routinely thrown in jail. For these latest elections, HDP leader Selahattin Demirtaş actually campaigned from jail, warning: “What we are going through nowadays is only the trailer of the one-man regime. The actual scary part is yet to begin.” Even facing myriad constraints, the HDP managed to get a significant 11.7% of the vote, or 67 seats.
“One-man regime” was actually solidified a good two years ago, after Gulenists in the military ended up launching the (failed) military coup. Erdogan and the AKP leadership are convinced the Gulenists received crucial help from NATO. The subsequent purge was devastating – hitting tens of thousands of people. Anybody, anywhere, from academia to journalism, criticizing Erdogan or the ongoing dirty war in eastern Anatolia, was silenced.
Turkish historian Cam Erimtan stresses how Erdogan defended the necessity of anticipated elections by invoking “historic developments in Iraq and Syria” that have made it “paramount for Turkey to overcome uncertainty.”
Erimtan characterizes the so-called “People’s Alliance” of the AKP with the MHP as the “Turkish-Islamic Synthesis” of the 21st century, pointing how “the AKP base is large and fully convinced of the fact that the current systemic change is on the right track and that the return of Islam to Turkish public life was long overdue.”
So, “illiberal” or otherwise, the fact is a majority of Turkish voters prefer Erdogan. The European dream may be over – for good. Relations with NATO are fractious. Neo-Ottomanism is a minefield. So Eurasian integration seems the sensible way to go.
Relations with Iran are stable. Energy and military relations with Russia are paramount. Turkey can invest in economic projection across Central Asia. Russia and China are luring it into joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Erdogan may finally be able to position Turkey as the essential bridge between the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the West.
That’s a much better deal than trying to join a club that doesn’t want you as a member. “Illiberal democracy”? Who cares?
Turkey: a case where neoliberalism has literally jailed the Left
http://bit.ly/2lpcm5L
The big question is what piece of Syria will remain in Turkey’s hands?
Syria certainly won’t abide any loss.
And the US will be happy with that. The US has always wanted Turks to provide the cannon fodder in a war with Al Assad. Erdoğan has resisted so far, hoping to get NATO involved instead. However, the US has used the Kurdish “threat” to sucker Erdoğan into entering and occupying Syrian territory.
Erdoğan has his neo-Ottoman dream, so will not relinguish this territory, or so the US hopes. This will lead to a confrontation between Erdoğan and Assad. Remember, Erdoğan is anti-secular and anti-Assad, and still hopes to over throw him for a MB type government (Astana is a mere means to this end). He may even annex, officially, or unofficially, the parts of Syria he occupies, possibly even Iraq. One of Erdoğan’s advisors (İlnur Çevik) has stated that Turkey will not leave Syria.
Turkey is already getting its half-arsed soldiers minced by the YPG. And you can bet the shirt on your back that SAA will turn its attention to the north once the Da’raa offensive is completed.
Thank you, Pepe.
I can’t remember in which article I commented to this exact conclusion.
If we extrapolate the current trends:
a. trans-Atlantic association disruption,
b. structurally flawed financial processes, both in the financial infrastructure, and in almost all governments, of every level, in Western/empire nation-state entities,
c. lame ‘physical economies in empire administrative divisions,
d. massive infrastructure investment across Eurasia (x-western Eurasia),
e. extreme cynicism with the empire’s ‘bag of dirty-rotten tricks‘ in almost all non-core nation-state vassalages
f. pending collapse on the empire’s monetary/financial systems
We find that anyone who is not perverted perceptually, so that they can not comprehend these facts, will understand that Turkey’s future prosperity, even in the 20-year time horizon, is looking east!
While in Europe Turkey always has been considered with suspicion and as a second class administration, Turkey faces little such prejudices to the east, and is poised to play a lynch-pin role in the emerging multi-polar global society and the new trade systems and processes that are being delivered.
As for the empire’s inability to comprehend the shifting popular perceptions, they’ve been riding their last functioning trick, so long, and so hard, so that the minds of the empire’s serfs is ‘adjusting‘ and ‘adapting‘ to it, minimizing it, and consequently, there is a growing ‘awakening‘ from the spell, which is following a logarithmic progression.
But, like the citizens living within a kilometer of the huge dam, they have blotted out perception of the possibility of the dam’s failure, thus are completely cognitively crippled from accepting the imminet failure of the empire’s perception management programs.
Let us look at inferred suggestion that Erdogan is at disadvantage in having to “… establish a coalition with the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP). ”
Now he’ll have an excuse, and method to deflect direct criticism of more extreme policy implementations!? Non?!
It seems pretty darn convenient to me.
The Kurdish obsession though won’t go away
An almost ideal situation for eventual restoration of Syrian territorial integrity. Eventually the Kurds, their negotiating position in ruin, by way of continued obsession, will result in the best possible deal being made with… the Syrian government! (at the Syrian government’s terms). Of course, there will have to be… Putin, … mediating Erdogan. But let’s not forget that eventual territorial restoration is better than what will happen if there isn’t a like situation at hand to … require U.S. (neocon) situational re-evaluation of the course in Syria, i.e. never restoration.
Erdogan and the political machinations
He did what he had to (a loaded statement).
If it is true that despite starting off as an open Europhile, he was targeted by the empire for a routine regime change assassination, as part of the ongoing colour revolution annexation scheme, one could view his drastic political purging as ultimately in the best interests of the Turkish people.
That sounds harsh and perhaps a bit too supportive of a emerging dictator/strongman, but look at what has been happening, and the death-toll associated with… say… Libya; what would a ‘successful‘ displacement of Erdogan have ultimately resulted in?
I’m not defending his policies, just putting the perspective from the other angle on them.
Erdogan is now engaging in what might be described as ‘taunting‘ the empire (I’m not meaning to suggest, one way or another, that the extreme hubris of the empire doesn’t scream for it), but he could accomplish all of his ascribable policy objectives without such open belligerence (for the consumption of the domestic ‘believers). And what the sociopathic leadership of the empire will respond to, in the most definitive terms, is this kind of taunting; so there will be even more plans to ‘get rid of him‘ by any means, continually developed and considered for implementation.
Nonetheless, in the present tense, the ongoing requirement for Turkey to ‘jump through EU hoops‘ for table scraps, is way, way below Erdogan’s ego line, and who could blame him?
The only part of Turkey which is in Europe is Istanbul, the former Constantinople, a Greek Byzantine city. Turkish hold over it is questionable. Turkey used Istanbul as an excuse to join the EU, including it’s citizens who work in Europe. This was rejected, and rightly so. I think that no Turkish politician of quality ever thought that Turkey would be admitted to the EU. As far as I can see, Turkey was basically interested in extorting from the EU as much as it could.
Turkeys membership in NATO is debatable, it always being dangerous for NATO to have it as it’s member, bearing in mind Turkeys Ottoman past. A former imperial power was being asked to potentially fight for the interests of somebody else. A highly unlikely scenario. It is now quite apparent that Turkey is on the way to leaving NATO, postponing the decision for the right moment, as it is conscious of the repercussions.
Yes, Turkey will turn towards the East, the Silk Road and the Eurasian Economic Union, which are in it’s back yard. This too will happen when the moment is right. However, Turkeys relationship with the East will not be a smooth one, with the East keeping an eye on Turkeys radicals.
Actually, Turkey, as the Ottoman empire, has been integral to Europe for over two centuries. Significant in the 19th century balance of power. As for NATO, Turkey was and is essential to NATO as a buffer, if nothing else, between Europe and its perceived/created enemies Russia and Iran.
Erdoğan is interested in extorting what he can get from the EU or anyone else. He follows the Western political model of running protection rackets and extortion.
In fact, I have always opposed Turkey’s entrance to the racist EU. In this case Erdoğan is a blessing for Turkey.
Blue Dotteral
No, this cannot be accepted. Turkey was never an integral part of Europe, as it was never a European state. It was in Europe as an imperial power, being expelled in 1912 during the First Balkan War. Even it’s existence as an imperial power was an accident of history. Until 1300 Turkey was ruled by the Seljuk Turks, when the Ottomans took over. This division between the Seljuk’s and Ottomans was never resolved, with the Ottomans using European Christians for high level administrative posts, trusting them more than their own.
Yes, NATO used Turkey as a buffer zone. It also used it as a potential military force for any future conflict. A very dangerous thing to do, as in 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus, while it’s relationship with Greece was never smooth, a military conflict always being possible, which would have dragged other NATO members. Worse, Muslim radicals have always been present in Turkey, never forgetting the Ottoman Empire. Who killed the Russian ambassador to Turkey ?
The EU being racist ? Take a look at the “refugees” pouring into Europe and what they are doing. In 2016 a group of “refugees” came to Switzerland, immediately demanding that the cross be removed from the Swiss flag, as it offended them. When it comes to extortion, the Ottomans were doing it for centuries in Europe, including the brutal blood tax, kidnapping children from families and training them to be janissaries.
Yes, Erdogan is a blessing for Turkey, accepting reality. What is not a blessing for Turkey is it’s Ottoman past and it’s Muslim radicals. We shall see how well they fit into the new power structures rising in the East.
Buffer zone??? Who’s encroaching on whom? Turkey was an advance zone for the nato, not a buffer. An advance zone for missile placement as close to SU/Ru as possible, and advance zone for encroachment on Caucasus. And pretensions on Iran, Iraq, Syria, etc.
B. F.
Turkey’s response to Sampson’s overthrow of The Markarios Greek Cypriot government and subsequent threat to ethnically cleanse Cyprus of Turkish Cypriots led to the legal intervention and occupation of parts of Cyprus in 1974. This was legal according to the Tripartite Treaty of Guarantee signed in 1959 by Greece, Britain and Turkey at the founding of the Cypriot state.
The actual illegal action was the overthrow of the original Cypriot government by the Greek Cypriots in 1964, and the subsequent persecution of the Turkish Cypriots. The UN in its bias and ignorance recognized this coup government. This is rarely refered to in the biased Western media.
I am not quite sure what you mean by “This division between the Seljuk’s and Ottomans was never resolved”. The Sejuk’s were history after the mid 13th century. From then on, it was all Osmalis.
I really wish people wouldn’t blame current peoples for the attitudes of their distant ancestors. The Muslims of the 15th, 16th centuries were no worse than the christian kingdoms in Europe, or the Chinese in their barbarous treatment of human beings. Ivan the Terrible did not get his moniker for being a humanitarian. Historical context is everything.
Today’s Daesh, al Qaeda and possibly Muslim Bortherhood fundamentalists, as backward and barbaric as they are, are responsible for less death and destruction than the neoliberal capitalists who provoke them.
Blue Dotteral
The Ottomans took over from the Seljuks in 1300. However, the Seljuks were very much present in Ottoman high society, doing their utmost to undermine the Ottomans. It is for this reason that the Ottomans used Christians for high level administrative posts, as they could not trust their own. For example, the Serb Mehmed Sokolovich is well known in Turkish history. Turkish society was always prone to divisions. In Ankara you have Erdogan, while in the US you have Gulen. How many people did Erdogan either arrest, or remove from their positions after that coup d’etat against him ?
Turkey is geopolitically perfectly situated to prosper from participation in the BRI.
It is slowly turning East and will break with NATO.
Erdogan’s egomania is mortal while Turkey’s history and evolution will continue far beyond his demise.
Erdogan is the power behind a lot of Muslim Brotherhood machinations. This is a deep, poisonous vein that motivates all the proxie groups under ISIS, AQ and al Nusra banners.
And much of the British influence is through the MB.
It is the ideological anchor for Erdogan. Some think his “vision” is personal glory or Turkish glory. It is beyond the borders of those dreams. The MB is a huge, persistent private army for Erdogan. Look at how he supplies and protects the crazies in Idlib. His flooding of Europe with refugees is all part of the MB plan to destabilize the EU.
There is a Byzantine war being waged against the West’s influence, engineered by elements of the West (Mi6) and patronized through Ankara.
Erdogan is a useful tool for various geopolitical centers of intrigue.
“His flooding of Europe with refugees….”
Now, this is typical “one-eyed perception” on which the current World Order exists!
Please, explain – is Erdogan producing those refugees or are they a “product” of the blind support of the “EU” for the western-zio-nazi re-colonisation of Asia?
Typical decadent “european” hubris: I am the boss, but somebody else must take the responsibility….
Erdoğan is partially responsible at least given his support of Al Nusra and willingness to run Jihadists and arms across the Turkish border into Syria, not to mention aiding Daesh by helping transporting their oil out of Syria in the past. So with the US, France, Britain, Qatar and The House of Saud, Erdoğan is responsible for the refugee problem coming out of Syria.
Let the Eurasian Union extend to include Iran,Turkey, Syria and Iraq, and they will also join the SCO.
This integration will move pari pasu with the BRI.
If MB and similar cancers are reactions to Western “liberalism”, then Eurasian integration offers a means of defusing Islamic militancy.
The Russian model of Christian-Muslim cohabitation, couple with EAU-SCO policy of non-interference in members’ internal affairs, will gradually take the wind out jihadist sails.
And for Erdogan, this arrangement would provide added value: he’ll have almost all his would-be Turkic constituency under the same roof, as it were…
On the other hand, the coming together of so many conflicted nations presents as many opportunities as risks. However, the East is definitely better equipped to handle the latter than the West – today sadly emasculated by its “liberal values”.
“Turkey can invest in economic projection across Central Asia.”
And yet at the same time, how thrilled would the Russians be to see Turkey have influence over Turkic-speaking people throughout Russia and the ex-Soviet countries such as Kazakhstan. China also doesn’t want the Turkic-speaking Muslims in Xinjiang influenced by Muslim countries such as Turkey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkic_peoples
Russia and China would love increased trade with Turkey. Commerce notwithstanding, just as Europe didn’t not want Turkey as an equal partner, Russia and China will eventually establish limits as well.
Pepe neglected to mention that part of “greater israel” consists of a portion of southern turk territory and all the energy/mineral resources in the eastern edge of the Med. The zionazis have designated turkey for balkanization. This is why israel’s eu quislings refuse turkey membership and why turkey is being pushed out of nato.
The Turks have two basic choices. Submit to the zionazis and become a failed, broken up colony of said, or break out. My guess is turkey has chosen to break out.
True to some extent, the Ralph Peter’s map for remaking the ME does have Turkey split up. However, Turkey currently has excellent economic relations with Israel. They have never been better. As far as Israel is concerned, Erdoğan’s words do not match his deeds.
US Refusal to Supply F-35s to Turkey Will Do Ankara Great Favor – General
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201806231065696346-turkey-us-f-35-deal-consequences/
“Addressing the possible repercussions of Washington’s refusal to supply its F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, Beyazit Karatas, vice-chairman of the left-wing Turkish party Vatan, told Sputnik that Ankara should deal with the issue from the standpoint of its strategic interests.
Retired Turkish Air Force Major General Beyazit Karatas said that by “refusing to deliver the F-35 warplanes to Turkey, the US will do Ankara a really great favor.
“A decision to purchase American fighters will make the Turkish Air Force 100-percent dependent on the US and will impede the development of production of our domestic aircraft,” Karatas pointed out.
He stressed that such a deal “will boost the strength of the US global arms market and will prevent Turkey from independently running its own air force.”
“Perhaps, from an economic point of view this method is good, but we should remember that Turkish-American relations are currently not at the level that was in place before. Therefore, discussions about whether the F-35 is better than [Russia’s] Su-57 make no sense. Turkey needs to look at this issue from a strategic rather than a technical point of view,” Karatas concluded.”
US to Introduce Sanctions Against Turkey if It Buys Russia’s S-400 – State Dept.
https://sputniknews.com/world/201806261065794849-us-sanctions-turkey-s400/
“We made it clear that is Turkey buys S-400s… there will be consequences. We will introduce sanctions within Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA),” Mitchell told the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
The official further noted that the US maintained the ability to withhold the transfer of F-35 combat aircraft to Turkey over national security concerns if Ankara decided to purchase the S-400s.
“We believe that we have the existing legal authorities that would allow us to withhold transfer under certain circumstances, including national security concerns,” Mitchell told the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Prospects for Turkish military-industrial cooperation with the United States would also be in jeopardy if the S-400 air defense systems are purchased, Mitchell added.
In April, Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport’s director general said that Russia had started manufacturing S-400 systems for Turkey.”
See also:
US Senate’s Move to Block F-35 Supplies Won’t Stop Turkey From Buying S-400 – PM
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201806191065539395-turkey-alternatives-us-f35-jets/
‘Turkey’s Decision on S-400 Purchase Final, Irreversible’ – Former Envoy to US
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201806271065822751-turkey-independent-foreign-policy/
Pepe is still hanging on that old mantra of Euroasian Integration. Unfortunately it is just a myth or fairy tale, if you like. Just look at some of the recent events.
In my opinion the most important news was not the election in Turkey, but the latest JP Morgan Chase announcement after the election results. They announced that they would like to see two particular people in charge of economy. One of them is M. Simsek. He is very close to western circles and served as a Finance Minister for many years. What does this mean? Lets start with JP Morgan Chase. Who owns it? Of course the Rockefeller. Now lets go a few years back. Erdogan used to be more or less subservient to Rothschild until 2011 (up to the infamous Mavi Marmara aid convoy incident), especially when Gulen religious movement had the control of Turkey’s judiciary, police and various other government institutions, which had reached its peak especially during Obama and Hillary years. Former foreign minister and then prime minister Davudoglu was their pawn under the disguise of neo-Ottomanism. In 2015 we witnessed the shooting down of the Russian plane, just to break apart Russian influence on Turkey and even to create something much worse like a civil war. This situation changed with the coup d’état attempt in 2016. The coup attempt was quite likely planned and executed by an influential CIA offshoot. It failed and Erdogan with possible help and support of Yankee Doodle started cleaning up all infiltrations. Russia was crucial helping Erdogan to cling on power putting their intelligence apparatus at work. Don’t forget that Russia is also part of the Yankee Doodle clan. A couple of years later we witnessed Erdogan receiving Putin with a ceremonial military cavalry regiment, never ever seen in modern Turkish history before (that was just before Putin welcomed Netanyahu at Victory Day in Russia). This was a symbolic message that Turkey is now firmly with Russia, both belonging to the same Yankee Doodle club.
Adam Shiff (California Congressman and Trump antagonist) just a couple of days ago foul mouthed Erdogan for the election victory, while the Trump White House happily endorsed it. Similarly the US Senate placed sanctions on Turkey vis a vis the sale of S400 missile defence system, while Pentagon went ahead with the sale of F35, even arranging a flashy ceremony of delivery in Texas. Chipras of Greece (supposedly the arch enemy of Turkey) congratulated Erdogan for the “fair and democratic“ elections. Greece wants to conduct gas explorations in the Med Sea with Netanyahu’s Israel close at Turkey’s nose. Greece is yet another close partner to Russia (thus Yankee Doodle). Some other eastern European nations also followed suit congratulating Erdogan. No positive words yet from Germany and France or Britain. They have heavily bet on the parties of the republican coalition (CHP, IYI, SP, HDP-kurds) during the elections, which lost miserably. This coalition was supported by the City of London aka House of Royals. They seem to have lost Turkey forever. Her Excellency must be fuming.
Turkey is not part of the so called, imaginary “Euroasian” integration but part of Yankee Doodle very much like Russia. Turkey’s foreign and economic relations will follow a pre-engineered roadmap from now on. Turkey will continue be a good friend of Russia, but not Iran. Turkey will collaborate closely with Russia and Israel in Syria and most importantly we will possibly see gas explorations in the Med Sea starting full steam once Syria’s Assad is tamed enough and Iran’s influence in the region is broken. This is an area where Russia, Turkey and Israel seems to be working quite nicely hand in hand (Sorry no such thing as Astana trio). A few weeks ago Turkey already decided to cooperate with the Yankees to patrol the kurds in Manbij, Syria. Though, Iran is still resisting and may also be getting some direct/indirect support from China + House of Royals for obvious power games in the region.
Turkey needs to dump its purchases of the US F-35 fighter jets . They are overpriced hi-tech American junk.
The Russian S-400 missile defense system and indeed its Su-57 fighter are not only fairly priced but have the added benefit of being superior weapons systems, as opposed to America’s beloved F-35 lemonjet.
Yep, Russia entered the Syria theatre to carry out regime change to save Assad as per Saudi Arabia’s wish with the support of the EU. Iran did it best to fight alongside the Kurds covered by US air support. And we all know the Yankee Doodle Club, SCO and of course the House of Royals are part of City of London. India will emerge as winner from the whole conflict!
The US will push Turkey to not return Afrin to the Government of Syria to provoke a crisis with Russia. Turkey has much to lose if it takes this US/Zionist gambit.
Erdogan has been flipping back and forth for several years, trying to have it both ways. It worked for a while, but now it doesn’t. You can’t fight Soros and host US troops at the same time. Pick a side and stick with it.
That “Dream” of joining the EU and being welcomed as a part of Europe had died several years ago. Erdogon’s last gasp at making a deal along those lines was in the negotiations over refugees a few years back. Not only did the EU pay Turkey cash for stopping refugee flows before they got to Europe, but Erdogon also wanted more assurances on joining the EU and ending the long stall that had been going on. AFAIK, the checks didn’t bounce, but the EU failed to follow up on the parts towards joining the EU. And several heads of state have I believe come out and said it wasn’t going to happen.
The death and final entombment of the Dream was during and after the CIA coup attempt on Erdogon. I’d imagine that Erdogon probably thought of the Europeans as being American puppets in such a scheme. Also, the mass arrests and media closings and seizures put off a lot of Europeans. We’ve seen disputes with the Germans leaving Insurlik Airbase and other unfriendly acts and comments between the two.
Erdogon has known for some time that this EU Assension was not going to happen. He’s been making other plans and moving in other directions for a year or two.
Turkish military certainly interested in pivoting Eastwards. Some interesting articles here
Su-57 for Turkey
http://militarywatchmagazine.com/read.php?my_data=70644
Turkey taking official steps to acquire S-500 air defence system
http://militarywatchmagazine.com/read.php?my_data=70701
I don’t think the EU was ever a viable option for Turkey, and their approach to the Eurasian project is a good thing. Attaturk was a western implant from Greece who overrode Turkish culture with so called Western values and then enforced the transformation with military power. However, I think we should be careful about how we view ‘the majority of Turkish voters prefer Erdogan’. All other viable choices have been removed.