by Batko Milacic – Independent analyst – for The Saker Blog
The events in the Middle East have made a large number of interstate relations of the former “allies” very complicated due to the large-scale operation “Arab Spring”. After the failure of the original idea of creating the Great Middle East, a project in which the main role was played by Washington, in alliance primarily with the Gulf monarchies but also with Turkey, there was a great redefinition of relations within the axis.
Realizing that its interests in the region will not be satisfied in the alliance with the United States, Turkey turned another page in foreign policy, trying to satisfy its own interests, thus at the same time defying the synergistic policy of the NATO pact in the Middle East.
This act was a revolt within the NATO bloc itself. The most concrete results were seen with the realization of the “Turkish Stream” project with Russia and the purchase of modern S-400 anti-aircraft systems from Russia, despite numerous warnings from official Washington.
However, the question arises as to what other choice the Turkish leadership had. The “Arab Spring” project failed, and European leaders were clear that Turkey would not become a member of the European Union. On the other hand, out of its own interests in the war against Syria, Washington continued to support the Kurds and their parastate in northeastern Syria, thus calling into question Turkey’s national interests.
Faced with these problems, Turkey has decided to formulate its own policy, of course paying the price. The coup organized against Erdogan was the best example of how Washington does not forgive betrayal but also neither the change in foreign policy of “allies“. Especially when foreign policy is not in line with the interests of official Washington.
The surviving coup was a good lesson for the Turkish leadership that the United States is a superpower, and that enmity with Washington is costly. This was best felt by Turkish citizens, as Turkey’s economy has weakened significantly, because of the escalation of economic sanctions by Washington towards Turkey.
However, strong pressure from Washington further united the Turks. The lived experience, regardless of the political differences, united a significant part of the Turkish, primarily nationalist opposition, with Erdogan in relation to the United States. Erdogan has begun to pursue an increasingly Turkish-oriented foreign policy. Turkish society, especially its nationalist and secular elements reached the historical peak of contempt for US foreign policy.
Turkey, no matter how economically weaker than the United States, has shown that it is not a small nation that a “big boss” can discipline simply as it has in some other periods of history. The example of Turkish resistance to subordinate its policy to Washington interests is becoming dangerous, because the Turkish example of sovereignty of foreign policy and rebellion within the NATO pact can be followed by others.
Turkish nationalism got a new impetus by merging what previously seemed incompatible, and that is the greatest merit of US politics. With the failed Gulenist coup against Erdogan, Washington showed that it tried to treat this great nation as Haiti, which awakened Turkish national pride and opened the biggest gap in relations with the United States so far.
On the other hand, Russia, which was originally and still is in a geopolitical conflict with Turkey, accepted Turkish sovereignist policy and showed that, unlike America, it wants cooperation with Turkey and wants to treat Turkey without humiliation. In addition to the aforementioned “Turkish Stream” and the S-400 system, cooperation has also been established in the field of nuclear energy.
It is also very indicative that the last war in the Caucasus passed with the coordination of Moscow and Ankara, for mutual benefit. And guess who was the biggest loss of that war? Again of course the United States!
Russia and Turkey have demonstrated in a simple way who is the boss in the region, and that Washington is incapable of protecting its “allies”. This is especially related to Armenia, whose government is headed by a pro-US prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan. Turkey was a demonstrator of force through Azerbaijan, while Russia appeared as a protector, which was another slap in the face for Washington. Turkish society is increasingly mobilizing against the United States, especially in the media. The extent to which Turkish society is antagonized in relation to the United States is best shown by the new Turkish documentary “Dying Empire”:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtnmqoVwJ5s
Erdogan has been on a winning roll.
However, I can’t think of any national leader that defied the US who had a long life and was not terminated.
The biggest threat to US hegemony in the region(s) is how Erdogan has weakened NATO. Ridding him from the scene would put Turkey back in the NATO alliance as the second most powerful military, as it was previously.
The Gulenist coup was a close call. Erdogan was saved by Russian Intelligence. The CIA may do better next time.
Then there is the conflict in Syria. Butting heads with Russians is a temporary game. Though Erdogan has allowed his officials to talk directly with Assad’s representatives to try to solve the refugee issues. This is a good sign.
Idlib cannot continue as is. Erdogan has tried moving thousands of his Islamist fighters to Libya, to Afghanistan and, even toys with the idea of some of them going to Ukraine. They were in Azerbaijan for the war with Armenia. He would like to keep the bulk of them as a barrier between the SDF and the Turk-Syria border.
This is not acceptable to any of the parties in Syria. The Kurds, the Syrians or the Russians want ISIS and AQ and al Nusra fighters dead or gone.
The Turks, the US, the Israelis all want the fighters in Idlib to continue to fight against Russia and Syria.
It cannot continue as Erdogan wants.
When Russia declared victory in Oct. 2017 for its operations in Syria, this was based on the fall of Raqqa.
Reality continued, as did the war against the terrorists. Idlb became the focus, but the three years most of Idlib is still in the hands of the head-choppers. The reason has been the obstruction by Turkey.
Something will have to change.
It could be on the ground in Syria or it could be in the relationship between Russia and Turkey or it could be in the Presidential Palace in Ankara.
“Erdogan has been on a winning roll.”
Can you list some of these wins?
On the ground it looks like he is on a losing roll. But perhaps things look different from the UK or the US, or wherever you are.
Larch445 is a brilliant analyst no doubt, but the down side of his analysis remain is strong sentimentality against mostly anything religion which makes him ignore such perspective all together.
Check how convinently he totally ignored Iran and her Axis role in Syria, as if air bombardment alone has ever won any war. Russia’s role in Syria cannot be disputed but I don’t see Russia achieving even relative success in Syria without Iran Axis boots on the ground and vice versa. Who was keeping Assad’s neck above water before the arrival of Russia? Iran Axis have done most of the heavy lifting and made a huge sacrifice in Syria. The question still remains open, would Russia have intervene in Syria with boots on the ground? We all saw what happened to Libya, that stain on human conscience remain US doing much as it remains the collective UNSC permanent members doing, that includes Russia. Though Russia intervene lately with her PMC, how have they fared against the Turkey backed forces over there?
There are no doubt Russia would never have intervened with boots on the ground in Syria as Russia’s public opinion was clearly against such intervention while Afghanistan quagmire is still fresh in their mind and without boots on the ground most part of Syria would still remain in the hands of the Jihadi John’s, and no amount of air bombardment can change that.
But I have no problem with such analysis as Larch445 earned the right, at least I get to see things from a pro-Russia perspective from him and add this to the general picture.
Larchmonter does his credibility a disservice by naming Turkey as the top regional power opposed to the US. I would label such a claim as absurd, and pure propaganda. Turkey and Russia are playing a game together, in Syria. If Russia were not in Syria making deals with Turkey, I think the Resistance would have beaten the terrorists by now. Can Larchmonter or anyone else provide some detailed updates of what Russia is doing in Syria, day by day? Like the updates that someone here was providing for Resistance activity. It would be good to know what Russia is actually doing in Syria, would it not? I think it is a serious problem, having Turkey and Russia in Syria together. They are very closely knit and friendly together, and yet it seems like they are backing opposite sides in Syria, but the two sides never seem to clash. Does anyone here know any details about Russian fighting in Syria? Have they struck any targets lately? Do we know what their strategy is?
Twice last month, Russia bombed a large oil storage / transit facility in Idlib, on the Turkish border.. Russian fighting units are small, with the Wagnerian mercenaries doing more of the heavy lifting.. We no longer hear of the Turk-Russian joint patrols in Idlib Province, while Turkey continues to target the Kurds in the northeast & Iraq.
Iraqi Shias have recently increased their offensive against the illegal US presence in both Syria and Iraq, but rely on the wildly inaccurate un-guided missiles..
The various players in Syria have their own agenda, and seem happy with the status quo..
“The various players in Syria have their own agenda, and seem happy with the status quo..”
The Syrians are not happy. What an utterly insensitive thing to say.
Have you ever given any thought to what the US and NATO would’ve been able to do in Syria if Russia wasn’t there? It is the Russian Aerospace Forces that keeps the US from imposing its own control over the Syrian airspace. If that happens, it would only take few months for them to topple the Damascus govt.
“Have you ever given any thought to what the US and NATO would’ve been able to do in Syria if Russia wasn’t there?”
Yk did admit as much, Swordfish.
Perhaps back in 2015, what you are saying would have applied. But today, Iran has jet powered drones.
American officials have openly admitted that US air superiority has been lost in West Asia, to Iranian drones.
But, my question to you is, what has the US been able to do in Iraq, where Russia is not present? “eddie” claims that the Iraqis are using inaccurate unguided missiles against the US; this is false.
The scale of recent Iranian attacks against US forces in Iraq has been unprecedented. You just don’t hear about it in the Western media, just like you don’t hear about the Yemenis non-stop victories in KSA. So, what are the US and NATO going to do in Iraq, that the Resistance cannot handle, and the Russian Aerospace Forces must perforce be called in again?
What is the US doing in Yemen? Must Russia be called in there too?
Why is Syria different? Why would the US and NATO have been able to do — what?? — in Syria in 2015, but they cannot do it now in Iraq and Yemen?
Russia went into Syria at the request of the Syrian govt. Iraqi govt. or Yemen didn’t make such a request. If what you say is true, then Iraq should be devoid of US military presence by now if Iran could singlehandedly take on the US military and their henchmen but the truth is that they can’t.
Perhaps Gen. Souleimani was more pragmatic regarding the military situation in Syria since he was the one who mediated Russia’s intervention and coordinated the IRGC with Russia. The bottom line is that no matter the drones, Iran can’t challenge a US/NATO imposed air superiority in Syria if Russia leaves.
“If what you say is true, then Iraq should be devoid of US military presence by now if Iran could singlehandedly take on the US military and their henchmen but the truth is that they can’t.”
Why do you say that? Is Syria devoid of US military presence, because Russia is there?
The US will leave Iraq before they leave Syria. Shall we make a wager?
Look, you said without the Russian Aerospace Forces, the US and NATO would have had their way with Syria and completely toppled the Iranian-backed government ther. Although you were vague in your wording, that is the meaning that I drew. Am I correct in my interpretation?
So, I asked, what is stopping the US from doing the same in Iraq and Yemen, where the Russian Aerospace Forces are not present?
In other words, why is the US losing in Yemen and Iraq, even though the Russian air force is not there, and all that is there is the Iranians and their drones, which you ignorantly scoff at?
“Perhaps Gen. Souleimani was more pragmatic regarding the military situation in Syria since he was the one who mediated Russia’s intervention and coordinated the IRGC with Russia. The bottom line is that no matter the drones, Iran can’t challenge a US/NATO imposed air superiority in Syria if Russia leaves.”
General Soleimani brought Russia to Syria because of Turkey, dear Swordfish, not the US/NATO.
Again, I ask, why can Iran not challenge the US in Syria, but they _are_ challenging them in Iraq and Yemen as we speak, and with more than a little success?
If I may say, you are being a bit obstinate. Either define what you mean by “what the US/NATO could have done to Syria” or concede that the US and UK and Israel are doing everything they can in Yemen, to no avail.
P.S. When US officials are forced to openly confess that Iranian drones are their biggest worry and headache, you should take the hint; they are the best combat drones currently being used in any war on Earth.
“However, I can’t think of any national leader that defied the US who had a long life and was not terminated.”
Actually, I can name at least two – Vladimir Vladimirovitch and Xi Jinping.
Add Ayatollah Khamenei to that list. He’s been in power for thirty years.
Erdoğan has been in power for 20 years – longer than Xi, almost as long as Putin, so other than that, Larchmonter is essentially correct in his summary.
Erdoğan’s weakness is his ideological imperialist bent exhibited most clearly in Syria (sometimes called “Neo-Ottomanism”. The Kurdish issue could easily have been dealt with by recognizing Syria’s legitimate government and joining it to eradicate the takfiri, and to push out the US thus ending the Kurd’s support.
Instead, he has chosen to illegally occupy a part of a neighboring state using the excuse of a non-existent PKK threat from Syria. This has exacerbated economic problems in Turkey for no acceptable reason.
Erdoğan’s efforts on behalf of Ukraine are directed mostly for the benefit of Crimean Tatars – again, apart of Erdoğan’s imperialism view. He did not confront Ukraine on behalf of the Tatars for 13 years, but now sees it as an issue when Crimea is a part of Russia.
Although Erdoğan’s position on Libya and Azerbaijan can be considered legitimate in that he is assisting legally recognized governments retain or regain their internationally recognized territory (upon their request), this is the opposite when he confronts Crimea (Tatars), Afghanistan, Syria. This seeming inconsistency can only be regarded as consistent if one considers that Erdoğan cares little about international sovereignty, but essentially follows his own Islamic “imperialist” ideology.
So Erdoğan uses the US, NATO, Russia to attempt to achieve his own imperialist “neo-Ottoman” dreams. This, particularly in Syria, is weakening Turkey economically.
How is Erdogan Islamic, when drinking alcohol is legal in Turkey, hijab is voluntary, and street prostitutes are all over the place? What makes Erdogan Islamic? His Imperialist ambitions?
Erdogan needs to choose, he can either be at the head of an Islamic Caliphate, ie. a Neo-Ottoman Caliphate, which will never happen, or he can be at the head of a Pan-Turkist movement, which is much more likely to happen, as I am personally aware of Turkic sentiments.
While all the Turkic peoples are in fact Muslims today, Erdogan’s Pan-Turkism will be absolutely unpalatable for Arabs and other non-Turkic Muslims.
I would be surprised if Erdogan’s ambitions amount to anything overall. What has he accomplished in his decades in power? Everyone I have talked to in Istanbul absolutely despises the man. His support base is rural and small-town religious Turks that take his fake anti-Israel blather at face value.
And while we are on the subject, what’s the deal with all the militarized police carrying machine guns guarding literally every busy area in Istanbul? I could not help but note the shocking similarity to Israeli security forces. Are there Palestinians that need to be crushed in Istanbul, or what?
All I have to compare this to is Turkey’s next door neighbor, Iran, where you almost never see armed police, anywhere.
Turkey is becoming more and more a fascist police state. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Turkey is sending its police to Israel for training.
Admittedly, he is Pan-Turkist as well as Islamist (MB).
That 50% or more of Turkey are Secular Muslims, and he needs the MHP nationalists, partially accounts for the “drinking alcohol is legal in Turkey, hijab is voluntary, and street prostitutes are all over the place? ” Erdoğan does want to retain power. If you think the 2015 coup was a threat, imagine the destructive civil war, if Erdoğan tried to go SA or Qatar on the Turks. He is still working on his “Pius Generation” with mixed results. It not unusual to see a head scarved woman smoking a cigarette.
You would be surprised at the general Turkish tolerance of each other’s life styles. “Fundamentalists” with headscarves frequently can be seen with bare headed friends. The “extremists” on either side are a minority, although, sometimes quite demonstrative.
No, Erdoğan is not a fool. he knows he cannot rid Turkey of secular Kemalism completely or the tolerance it breeds. That does not make him less of a Islamist, but a pragmatist Islamist.
No, seriously. A ‘Muslim’ leader that allows drinking and prostitution in his country, takes orders from the USA, and, here’s the big one, attacks other Muslim countries?
According to Islamic teachings, a Muslim who starts a war of aggression against another Muslim, automatically forefeits the right to be called a Muslim.
Erdogan may be an ‘Islamist’, but his behavior is not Islamic, and many would argue that his invasion of Syria means he is excommunicated from the faith, in the eyes of God.
But I agree with the essence of what you are saying. Erdogan is a thug in a position of power, backed by NATO, and he will play on Islamic and Pan-Turkist and neo-Ottoman imperialist romanticism, and any other sentiments that he can use and manipulate to stay in power. That is all he is doing though, staying in power. Has he enriched his country? Has he been successful in his multi-front Imperialist wars?
Nothing about Erdogan is genuine, except his craving for power.
> How is Erdogan Islamic, when drinking alcohol is legal in Turkey…
Turkey (and turks) has always been mildly Islamic and have used Islam’s propensity for prostelization as an umbrella to establish the ottoman empire. From the days of Selim the turks (turkistan people) were and are muslim by name only. So none of this is surprising. This is one big reason the EU even interacts with Turkey and Germany tolerates so many turks there.
Erdogan wouldn’t be able to continue his policies for so long. His country is economically weak, and he foolishly started taking on several opponents on multiple frontiers. By the looks of it, he’s even eyeing at Afghanistan, which would be his stupidest blunder if he makes it.
I’ve seen some people accusing Russia of collaborating with Turkey, but it’s clear that Russia is considering the post-Erdogan period and is making preparations to have Turkey on its side. Turkey is a crucial point in the BRI and the Eurasian economic collaboration. It can’t be ignored. Besides, having Turkey on the US/EU side wouldn’t be a good scenario in the future if Russia and China aims to increase their foothold in the Middle East.
The Taliban has already read the riot act for Turkey, so ı think any ambitions Erdoğan may have had in Afghanistan are moot.
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/taliban-oppose-turkeys-offer-to-guard-kabul-airport
Edorgan is no Islamist, he’s a con artist who wear the Islamist garb when it suits his ambition. The simple test for an Islamist is his/her relationship with Israel.
Edorgan is an opportunist who is desperate to hold on to power thereby overextending Turkey in attempt to keep the business elites in Turkey satisfied and preoccupied imperatively retaining their loyalty. He’s playing the Islamist, nationalist, neo Ottomanist, pro West and pro East; meaning he’s a man not to be trusted.
How did it ended for Ali Abdullah Saleh, the man who dance on the head of a snake, his brain was eventually blown out. A man without an ideal is a man with no friends when the chips are down. A very dangerous preposition in a neighborhood like West Asia.
One should not forget most of the population today in Turkey are expats from Imperial Russia. So, it’s a multi century old love hate relationship with Russia.
As Erdogan told Trump; “Turkey is not a colony.. Who do you think you’re talking to”?
That makes Turkey different to the 27 satellite states called ‘European Union’ that are docile servants of Washington’s empire. We were never asked if we even wanted to be allies of the United States. It was all imposed from above. People who can’t choose their own enemies and friends are clearly not free people. The Turks seem to understand this simple fact.
Yes it’s a real hornets nest, juggling all the Playerz. The US & EU unwilling to give Turkey the boot for fear it slides fully into Russia/China arms/axis and the US loses its for hire Jihadi/WMD gateway while the EU adopts tens of thousands of the displaced regional souls.
Then again the Gulf sheiks baulk at Syria and a Turkish alliance as the US threaten them with sanctions and more if they rekindle diplomatic relations with Assad and welcome him back into the League of Arab gentle folk.
Erdogan dotes on the Dollar & Euro inflow and the free Syrian siphoned oil which enables his tanks and gun mounted 4×4’s to patrol, keep in check Kurd movements.
Still when the US/ZATO eventually flee, sooner, rather than later, with Conoco & the Good Ol’ Boys borrowed Energy Assets ablaze, Erdogan will go to his golden cabinet and pull out Plan H.
At this point, Israel, with Crimea as a new settlement off the cards will maybe have to look across the Atlantic for resettlement. Canada’s wilderness is a far cry from the Tel Aviv/Haifa beaches they enjoy but is reasonably clement 4 months of the year.
“At this point, Israel, with Crimea as a new settlement off the cards will maybe have to look across the Atlantic for resettlement.”
They already have the Jewish Autonomous Region…
Less than 2000 jews remained in that region in 2010. What’s the situation now?
The problem is, that tens of thousands of Jews have left the Soviet Union after 1991. Unsurprisingly, Russian is the third most used language in Israel after Hebrew and Arabic now.
Stalin’s mistake was to establish a Jewish state in a place that has very rough climatic conditions. It would have been better to create a Jewish state in the Volga region, or even better use Odessa oblast, which has a large Jewish community already. Also remind, that the communist government was generally skeptic towards religion. A less hostile mindet against relgion would have been good for the Soviet Union.
The Jews are preparing vast area in Argentina for another homeland. Patagonia.
One theory is a nuclear war will affect the Southern Hemisphere less than the Northern half of the globe.
I do respect your views when it comes to Russia & China.
As an Argentinian I can tell you this Patagonia for jews is utter BS.
Argentina, under a Peronist government would never allow this.
Besides, the big ownership of Benetton, Soros, Lewis will be contested eventually, once we sort out
bigger problems first (Pandemic, debt, corrupt judicial system, etc)
Cheers
Patagonia has the first Chinese tracking satellite station ever built by China abroad.
We do welcome Chinese instead.
Cheers
Mario.
As part of their military service, Israelis travel to Chile to study the topography of Patagonia and establish maps. Not proof of anything of course.
Look up Plan Andinia on YouTube.
YouTube has also videos trying to show that we have been invaded by reptilian aliens and the UK Queen is one of them.
Cheers
The Sultan has shown he’s for real. Unlike the kemalist boot lickers, he has an independent mind and might be Pasha for life. No, not US permitting. Its tough to be him but someone has to do the dirty work. I think VVP sees this through and through and probably has enough admiration for him.
He has a very tough job but geographically he has all four aces. That’s what keeps him going as long as he knows how to play it.
Trouble is his illegal invasion of Syria has created serious problems for the Turkish economy (despite EU extortion payments). This will likely continue to fester until Turkey recognizes the Assad goernment and pulls out of N. Syria, possibly assisting Assad to deal with the Kurdish issue.
But, Erdoğan sees the US and Kurds continuing presence as a thorn in Assad’s side, giving him hope that he can effectively annex the northern areas he occupies, at least as a permanent protectorate, if not provinces of Turkey. A side benefit is the oil transported through Idlib to Turkey, ironically, by the Kurds.
Erdogan won’t be able to hold on to Idlib for too long. By annexing a province of a sovereign state he’d be breaching a lot of international laws. Besides, he’s already 67 and wouldn’t be around for much longer; probably 10-15 years.
Turkey is playing a double game.
On the one hand, Turkey makes gestures towards orienting towards the multipolar Eurasian alliance.
Yet on the other, Turkey continues to participate American/NATO terror wars such as in Syria, where Turkey is backing NATO’s moderate head-choppers as part of the illegal occupation of Syria.
Turkey is 100% aligned with the West and NATO. Do not buy into the psyops.
The US commands, and Turkey jumps to send forces to Afghanistan.
Turkey and Erdogan are the US’ dog. A rabid, foaming at the mouth pitbull.
Yes, but it’s important to observe that Turkey’s cooperation with NATO is predicated on Turkey becoming the Ottoman “Israel”, a fascist revisionist sub-empire whose regional hegemony and expansion is protected by NATO.
Erdogan’s legitimacy is likewise predicated on Ottoman rejuvenation.
Neo-Ottomans are increasingly disillusioned by Erdogan’s lack of results, specifically in light of regional competitor Iran’s extraordinary success in defying Zionism/NATO and building a regional support network from Damascus to Lebanon to Yemen to an insurgent Afghanistan. Having tied their hopes to Tel Aviv, the Ottomans are irrationally terrified of Iran above all else.
Anonymous: “Turkey is playing a double game.”
Yes, by all means (short-sighted Nato is “cordially welcome”, cause they pay and furnish all, taking smiles and oriental stories for true!). Turkish aim is not to reestablish their ottoman empire from England via Berlin and Vienna to Wladiwostok, from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean – all land, also ours, included?
The choise is to us: Turkey’s, Russia’s, China’s or our own way?
Clearly some cannot see through the Erdogan tricks. Turkey is fully backing Idlib jihadists, anexed half the East Med sea for oil, and backing even more the illegal occupation of Cyprus, with full support of UK and US. Turkey just has some disagreements with some CIA Gulenists factions but not the organisation NATO. Turkey has been a enemy of Russia for eternity, and as I heard one Brit comentator say- Turkey and UK are brothers against both EU and Russia, so they can never be trusted. UK, Ukraine and Turkey are in alliance and have many defense links and finance corrupt networks.
In Greece and Serbia for sure, the Russian support and weapon sales for Erdogan is hurting peoples view of Russia. Chinese ambassador in Greece said recently that Turk actions in East Med were similar to NATO in South China sea…. China has overtaken Russia in Greek peoples minds entirey because of this.
Russian weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also hurting people’s view of Russia.
The Cyprus “occupation” is legal according to the tripartite agreement (Treaty of Guarantee) signed with the UK and Greece signed in 1960:
“Article IV
In the event of a breach of the provisions of the present Treaty, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom undertake to consult together with respect to the representations or measures necessary to ensure observance of those provisions.
In so far as common or concerted action may not prove possible, each of the three guaranteeing Powers reserves the right to take action with the sole aim of re-establishing the state of affairs created by the present Treaty”
The problem all a long has, first been the illegal recognition of the Greek cypriots a the sole governing people of the Istand, both in 1964 and after the UN referendum in 2004 which the Turkish community voted for and the Greeks against, but, of course, “Greek” Cyprus was admitted into the the EU anyway.
So far, I think it is obvious that the Greek side is the side (with the EU) that has been most responsible for preventing “the re-establishment the state of affairs created by the present Treaty”.
This is largely because of the unequal representation of the two peoples in the international formum and can only be remedied by the international community recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This is the only way that Cyprus might one day be reunited as a confederation of two equal provinces through the result of negotiation between two equal states.
Great, another two-state solution. Incidentally, what is the Israeli involvement in Cyprus? Aren’t they stealing all the oil or something, while the Cypriots are busy with the Turkish conspiracy?
Yes, it’s all perfectly legal.
I did not know Israel was stealing oil from Cyprus. Is Cyprus objecting? What Turkish conspiracy are you talking about? Maybe you could provide us with some facts on these two points.
Treaties among countries are “perfectly legal”. They can be broken, but in the Cypriot case, the Turks have not done so. Sorry.
I should add that there is no similarity between the Palestinian and the Cypriot situations. Israel, or European Jews were the invaders of Palestine. In Cyprus the original invaders were Greek nationalists led by Nicos Samson with their Cypriot allies, not the Turks. These Greek invaders not only ethnically cleansed and murdered Turks, but even Greek Cypriots who opposed them.
The Turks intervened after the Greeks and UK refused to do anything, quite in accordance with the Treaty of Guarantee. They are still there because there has not been any progress on reuniting the Island, largely due to Greek Cypriot intrasigence (they are recoginized as the sole governors of Cyprus, so why give up power, just stonewall) and European Union hypocrisy.
I have always supported a single Palestinian state with Jews, Christians and Muslims as citizens with equal rights. The two state solution has been dead for decades in my judgement.
I also support a single Cypriot confederation based on two founding peoples – not unlike the French and English in Canada. But clearly, the Greek Cypriot side wants it all, and with EU support will do nothing to help reunite the Island unless they have it all. And of course, there are the Samsons who want Greece to have Cyprus as a part of Greece (Enosis).
In fact, the Ottomans gave Britain the rights to rule Cyprus in 1878, while retaining sovreignty. This ended with WWI when GB took Cyprus as a crown colony at the beginning of the war (Turkey, you may remember was on the opposite side). So, if any country has the best right to GB’s former crown colony, it is the descendent of the Ottoman Empire, The Turkish Republic. Greece was not a part of the Ottoman Empire in 1878, so has no legitimate claim on the Cyprus through its last sovereign state, the Ottoman Empire.
GB negotiated the Treaty of Guarantee with Greece, Turkey representing the Cypriot communities. That was the treaty that the Greek Cypriots then broke in 1963. Unfortunately, the UN in its usual lack of wisdom chose to recognize the Greek Cypriots as the government, ignoring the rights of the Turkish Cypriots as one of the two founding peoples. The terrorism and ethnic cleansing against the Turkish Cypriots started in 1963, culminating in 1974 with the Turkish intervention after the Greek nationalist invasion (the failure of which eventually toppled the Greek Junta; so the Turkish intervention did benefit Greece).
I suspect that many Greek Cypriots have no idea about their Island’s history, or may, but are too chauvinist to care.
Dear Blue Dotterel
“Greek nationalist invasion”. Wrong statement and misleading. Nikos Sampson was Greek-Cypriot. A terrorist during the anticolonial struggle, against the Brits. A sniper who shot many Englishmen (and English women, and children. Very unsavoury type.) Not Greek, but Greek-Cypriot. His “Greek invaders” were neither Greek nor invaders but local Greek Cypriot far-rightists, OF COURSE acting in cahoots with the military junta in Athens. So please check those things out since to talk about a “Greek nationalist invasion” under Sampson is torturing the truth. (You can accurately call it “Greek-Cypriot far-rightist coup) Finally, let us not forget the role of the CIA-US-Dr. K trio in egging-on the coup against the Makarios government (who was having good relations with the USSR and was with Nehru, Nasser, Tito, Nckrumah, etc one of the leaders of the 3rd world.)
Cheers,
Eric (both red and Greek)
I’ve just watched SyrianGirl’s video about Syria.
There seems to be a shortage of oil and wheat in Syria.
Why don’t Russian establish some sort of exchange program, say “fruit for oil”, both countries could benefit.
I am really puzzled. In the long term, there is a risk that Syria might face some agonising political choices.
I would say that president Erdogan is, no doubt, quite an intelligent man. Wise one, also. Although sometimes a little nervous. No wander, having in mind what a complex situation (multilevel and multiaspect) he is working in.
If one considers his moves in various fields and cases, they inevitably look as contradictions and as acts of a lunatic. Well, what if a very situation is lunatic?
To see behind such a mesh of his moves and actions, let us look for the frame of the mesh. In other words, let us look for the stakes of the mesh.
The US-EU is in decline, the CH-R Asia is growing. The transition is pretty fast in terms of history, but not in terms of making everyday decisions. Moreover, it is slow even for taking a strategic course, to position your country on a right and perspective way. Doing so, you put your intentions in public, and can be punished by someone, who is still mighty, and who dislikes your new course (different from yesterday’s one).
So, you must to cover your strategic direction with tactical counter directions. But nobody is such a full today to be deceived with such a plain game, whatever it seems complex. There many old foxes across diplomacy. It is a matter of honour or “honour”, better to say the honour in public. Until your insult is under my “honour radar” I will not consider it as offence. Particularly, if I am a great or super power and have a great cheek. Do not push me to react and show my weakness in public. Many things in the World depend on it.
It is outside Turkey. Inside – there are Kurds. A fundamental issue for Turkey, which needs strategic depth and some sort of control of neighbouring foreign areas. In Syria, first of all. In cooperation with Russia. They declared the victory, but there is still a war. Why? Maybe it is better to confine ISIS in one part and entertain them with battles then to spread them all across.
I am sure, Mr. Erdogan, personally, likes Mr. Putin. At least, he saved his scalp (likely for his own pragmatic reasons, not for the sake of brotherhood) . But scalp is scalp, no matter whose one. It creates a feeling of deeper respect, if there is nothing more.
Outside and inside (of Turkey) are always tightly interrelated.
Asia is under huge integrating processes. Turkey is in Asia. America is not so far away. Yet. So, the Game must go on.
just a bunch of assertions. no evidence. useless.
Turkey must be careful not to overplayed his hand. Especially in Syria. Neoosmanien will be not a thing until they guarantee Russia access to the mediterranean. And they already strained his relationship with Russia because of the Idlib thing.
The Purge after the Coup could be the safest thing Erdogan has done to save himself.
Turkey have to come up with a better Idea than plain occupies Syria, which has a alliance contract with Russia.
They could “help” Syria with the Kurds… and get a pass from Damascus doing so.
Unfortunately i think the Kurds are dumb enough to still resist and dream of sovereignty.
You cannot be sovereign in a all settled world if you not have enough power to defend.
But you cannot gain enough power as a half nomadic tribe with tribal thinking at its core.
You have to develop a nation and a sense of nationality. Until this you will see shit like barzanis work with turkey AGAINST other Kurds.
Until the kurds don’t determine between tribes anymore and only by “if it Kurd or not” they will not united and develop no nation whatsoever and therefor will not have enough power to be sovereign.
The Kurd settle since ancient times in this region and never learned their lesson because their was always space to evade into. But now with modern technologies, their is no space anymore to evade the confrontation.
They have to step up their Game and start to be a nation or will be vanish into the destert like so many Tribes an nations in this region before.
This will be a Genocide on the horizon and i have a Feeling that the Turks not care. This cold be the causa belli for Nato and Germany in particular to engage in this again. however play this out, it could be the downfall for Turkey, Germany (which has very big migrant groups of both ethnicity) or both. But it will be definitely the Downfall for NATO. Either by Kicking out Turkey, what would be a terrible sign for other smaller members, or by display infighting.
Syria will prevail as long as Russia allows it. And Russia will not falter because of their own prestige. They have worked hard and sacrifices some of their own to build up his reputation of dependability. Despite the fact that many of the borders their makes no sense what so ever.
The Hot Phase is over now and we will see the crumbling of the US power projection their.
Turkey will face still some Hurdles, mainly by Russia and his own ambitions, but if they play it carefully they get what they want. This will be a Long term game. Played by at least another 100 Years. i guess in 100 Years Syria will be no more and with him many of the other artificial country’s in this region.
What will be with Turkey? Depends how they play their cards.