This is complete fiction based on the current situation. We post it as a counterweight to the fiction produced by the western corporate media
by rzw for the Saker Blog
I will try to keep it as short as possible.
Some context information and static basic assumptions:
Rules of targeting (NATO Standards) – Compiled after NATO interventions in Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan
Valid targets in 404 (Ukraine) and NATO countries:
Military – troop and materials concentrations, logistics assets, communications, ammo dumps, fuel dumps, AA assets, runways, aircraft, helicopters, drones, radars, NATO troops, NATO assets, NATO training centres and command centres etc.
Civilian dual use – factories, bridges, civilian heating oil reserves, gas reserves, electrical network, chemical factories, refineries, civil trains, whatever we don’t like, propaganda outlets (TV and radio stations, transmitter towers). (Definition of propaganda outlet – any media which is against attacker and/or is for defender).
Political – ministries, army HQ, ministers offices, politicians residences, any government structure, embassies if it is by “honest mistake”.
Cultural – National monuments we don’t like.
Civilians – any group of more than one because they are “highly likely” armed, homes and offices of politicians, Nazi groups, Oligarchs, Maidan luminaries.
Russian supply of stand-off weapons
Long range stand-off weapons, with them Russia has covered the whole European part of NATO. Zircon is probably low in numbers for now (end of 2021) and it and Kinzhal will be used against high value targets in the first salvo. (Radars, Aegis ashore, Thaad, Nuclear weapons delivery facilities, other AA, Aegis destroyers, submarines). Second salvo with greater numbers will be slower stand-off missiles.
3M22 Zircon 1000 km range (Few tens at the moment)
Kh-47M2 Kinzhal 2000 km (probably over 200, in first salvo over 50)
3M54 Kalibr up to 4500 km (over 1000 probably even more, probably more than 100 in first salvo).
Kh-55 3000 km (few thousand, just from Ukraine Russia bought back 587. They will probably send a few back for free).
Kh-101 4500 km (At least few hundred with serial production ongoing)
Intermediate range missiles. With them Russia has covered most of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Sweden, North of Norway and Baltic’s.
P-700 Granit 500 km (probably for use against NATO ships in North sea and US, Japan and S. Korean Navy in Far east)
P-800 Oniks 600-800 km – with it is covered whole of Ukraine, even Galicia, as well as complete Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and a good part of Germany and Sweden.
Iskander-M 500 km (about 1000 rockets, in first salvo possible maximum 300. If Ukraine is target probably around 100 in first salvo, on Poland 100, 30 for Romania, on 3B 20 each) It will be used against fixed high value targets: radars, runways, bridges, fuel dumps, ammunition dumps, command posts and communication facilities.
Kh-35 Bal 300 km. It can be launched from ground launchers as well from most Russian planes and from some helicopters. It will be used for remaining troop concentration, remaining resistance points.
Short range missiles. They will be used mostly by LDNR forces at points of contact on entrenched units and on troop concentrations.
TOS1A 6 km. To break enemy lines and to stop advance columns.
TOS2 (status unknown at the moment)
9A52 Tornado 90 km
BM-21 Grad 45km
BM-27 Uragan 35 km
Start of hostilities. Russia has escalation dominance.
Wars usually start after the false flag operation or by escalating an incident. This one started one morning of 28th February at around 7 am by the Azov regiment, sending a few 120 mm mortar rounds over the front line on civilian houses. DNR forces retaliated after 8 am by sending all rounds from two launchers of Grad 122 mm rockets – 80 rounds on target which was known HQ, about 30 km from front lines. As Ukies and NATO forces have bad Karma, at that moment they had a graduation ceremony for Javelin operators. 70 Grad rockets hit ground in a circle of around 200 m. radius. Death toll was 53 soldiers, 12 NATO instructors, several colonels and two generals. There were more than 120 wounded.
In retaliation Ukraine (404) decides to attack Crimean bridge with Neptune missiles. They launch a salvo of 16 missiles from 4 launchers. Distance from the launch site to Crimean bridge is 150 km and flight time is 13 minutes. Launch was on 09.15 – 9.17 AM. During launch one Neptune malfunctioned and fell to the sea. AWACS A-50U plane on patrol over Crimea alerted Pantsir S1SM unit on alert stationed on a hill above Yurkine on Ketch strait entrance from Azov sea. For a Neptune missile from that hill, the distance of detection is 35 km. AWACS also gave coordinates of the launch site of Neptunes to the Bastion-P unit. At 9.20-9.21 Bastion launched 6 Onix missiles at the Neptune unit. Distance was 200 km and flight time 6 minutes, Two Su -30 fighters on patrol were vectored toward flying Neptunes at 20 m. above sea. At 9.24 Su fighters launched 2 AA missiles each, and at 9.25 AM 3 Neptunes were splashed down. At 9.26 first 3 Onix missiles slammed at the command unit and 2 Neptune launchers. One minute later 2 Onixes hit 1 launcher and 1 support vehicle. Last Onix could not acquire a target and had chosen a similar target 2 km in shore – vehicle on ammunition dump. One more Neptune malfunctions, probably damaged by an explosion of one destroyed by Su fighter. 11 Neptunes are now just coming above the horizon of Pantsir. It acquires the first 4 Neptunes and splashes them down. Then Pantsir acquires next 4 missiles and splashes 3; and acquires next 3 but hits only 1. Last 3 missiles are inside Kerch strait. One AA gun on a patrol boat engages with Neptunes and hits 1. Last 2 are right on the bridge. One hits the north lane of the bridge, explodes, destroys 3 cars and heavily damages that span. Another one hits the island 50 m. before the bridge and flying shrapnel destroys 1 car. Everything is finished at 9.30 AM. Results are 1 damaged span of bridge, destroyed 4 cars and 11 people dead, 1 baby alive but orphaned. On the Uki side 5 vehicles of the Neptune unit were destroyed, 12 dead and 5 wounded, several vehicles and ammunition dump destroyed 18 dead and 25 wounded.
It is late February and land is heavily overcast. There is alert in the Ukrainian Military HQ and the Government and at 10 AM they meet to decide what to do. With astonishment they watch on TV news as smoke rises from the Crimea bridge and start cheering. In the middle of cheers they receive news on Neptune crews losses as well about an explosion in an ammunition dump. After short discussions and on recommendation by NATO advisers they decide to start offensive on Donbass that night at 02.00 under code name “Зимова буря” or “Winter storm”. It will start with artillery bombardment from Mariupol and toward Lugansk as diversions. Main line of attack will be north of Donetsk on line Verhulivka – Grabove – Miusinsk – Marynivka – Russian border (about 85 km) and it will start with intensive artillery bombardment at 05.00 and main attack will start at 06.00. It consists of 1st Tank brigade with 56 T-64BM “Bulat” tanks on the left flank, 17th Tank brigade with 54 T-64BM tanks on the right flank. With them will be 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, 14th Mechanized Brigade, 80th Air Mobile Regiment and different special forces, Javelin teams, Azov regiment, 8th Special Forces Regiment, Artillery units, Army aviation, Engineering units, logistics. Each unit has several NATO advisers which have their own communication gear.
CNN news headline “Breaking News, Russia in false flag destroys Crimea bridge”
Main objective will be getting to the Russian border as fast as possible (plan is 2-3 days) and then hold it and spread along it to cut LDNR from Russia and to split LNR from DNR. As they advance additional forces will be fed into the breach. As reserve to exploit breach there are 8 Mechanized brigades as well as various support units. They are concentrated in the area around Troitske.
At the same time special units will prepare false flag chemical attack near Mariupol (at Markokhim Zavod), Avdeevka (at Brevno restaurant) and Krasnyi Liman (at Krasnolimanskiy Kombikormovoy Zavod). That attack will be organized two days after the start of the attack, when first units come close to the border.
At the same time a similar meeting was held in Moscow. After considering available intelligence reports and reports about readiness of appropriate forces and assets they decided to start several operations the next day at 06.00. First one will be “Стрижка” or “Hair cut”. It will consist of Iskander-M attack on radars, airfields, Anti-aircraft rocket systems, fuel dumps on airfields, drone command centres, command posts, Satellite stations, Cell Phone operators centres, Internet nodes, Ukraine HQ, all NATO assets and units in Ukraine. There are about 100 Iskanders in the first salvo.
Second salvo, one hour later, will consist of another 100 Iskanders and another 100 Kh-35 launched from aircraft and helicopters on remaining radars, Anti-aircraft assets which survived the first salvo, as well drone operators, communication and command centres. Additional strikes will be done as needed.
Next operation will be “Oбморок” or “Fainting” it will consist of about 200 missiles – Onix, Calibr, Kh-35, used against individuals and their assets which have organised and supported genocide on Russians i.e. CIA assets, American Embassy, Marine compound (embassy protection), NATO representatives, prominent Azov and Right sector individuals, Oligarchs, Zelenski, Ministers. This operation will start at 07.00 and will be finished when all targets on a list are hit.
Operation “Tуман” or “Fog” will use EW assets to suppress remaining electronic assets of NATO and Ukraine as well to provide targeting data to finish them off.
Operation “Забор” or “Fence” will consist of 4 Special forces teams with a task to protect Nuclear Power Plants from sabotage and selected objects and bridges. There are 4 NPP sites – Rivne, Khmelnitskiy, South Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia. First two will be approached from Belarus, the other two from Crimea. Some bridges over HPP will be secured.
Operation “Отражение” or “Reflection” will consist of Aircraft patrolling over Black sea and Norwegian sea (Mig-31K, Tu-23M3 and TU-160) with Kinzhals and Kh 101/102 in such position that they can launch missiles 2-3 minutes after receiving order and targeting information. In the first salvo they need to have at least 6 Kinzhals to be able to hit 4 DDG destroyers, aircraft carrier and missile cruiser. From that position over Black sea Kinzhals cover the Mediterranean up to Gibraltar. Flight time at average Mach 8 for 2000 km is 15 minutes. Reserve forces will be in Syria -2 Mig-31K and 2 Tu-23M3 on 5 minute alert.
In hours up to the start of the attack Uki forces had observed strict radio silence using only ground lines and couriers to dispatch orders and operational plans. NATO advisers used their satellite phones to stay in contact with NATO HQ and US Pentagon. They used encrypted channels toward US Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) satellites in geostationary orbit. Russians were able to detect those signals but not to decrypt them. Just analysing intensity and spatial distribution told them that some big operation is in preparation north of Debaltseve and north-west of Troitske. Also A-50U and IL-20M observed that a lot of Uki units are concentrated behind Troitske.
At 20.00 in Moscow, using the new Intel information, it was decided to activate operation “Молоток” or “Hammer”. Its main purpose is to allow Uki forces to enter in the territory 10-15 km then to block them and to cut the retreat route and obliterate them in place. It was assumed that the main line of attack will be between Debaltseve and Brianka as there are no big settlements which can be established as strong points. The plan is to move out personnel from first and second lines, remove civilians from small settlements on line of attack, and form blocking strong points in Horodishche and Fashchivka and line to Debaltseve and Brianka. After the attacking forces are stopped or slowed down, massive artillery, missile and frontal aviation attacks will hammer Uki forces.
Operation “Окуривание” or “Fumigation” will start at 02.00. It will consist of attack of one Iskander-M with a thermobaric warhead on each site with mercenaries preparing a false flag chemical incident. Main purpose of thermobaric warhead is to incinerate chemical weapons.
1st of March – Unraveling
Exactly at 02.00 Uki artillery started it’s bombardment of front lines in front of Novoazovsk and lines in front of Luhansk. Artillery bombardment should last up to 05.00. At 02.05 there were 3 big fireballs one over Mariupol (at Markokhim Zavod), over second one Avdeevka (at Brevno restaurant) and third one at Krasnyi Liman (at Krasnolimanskiy Kombikormovoy Zavod). Operation “Окуривание” was a complete success. Out of 125 mercenaries, only one who was AWOL to the local cathouse.
At 05.00 Intensive artillery bombardment started on the front 3 km wide between Rozsadky and Veselohorivka. It lasted 50 minutes and completely obliterated 2 lines of defence, Even most of the deep hardened bunkers were heavily damaged. Defenders lost only 2 of the pickets who were in front of the first line of trenches, all other personnel were removed before the start of the bombardment.
At 06.00 first forward units started to approach the first defenders lines. There was no fire from completely destroyed trenches and bunkers. At 06.05 first units were over the first line and reported that there was no resistance. All units on the first echelon were on the move forward. At 06.10 they lost contact with HQ but because there was no resistance they rolled forward. At 06.30 they were already 8 km along the way but had no contact with HQ. At 06.55 forward units came under fire from Horodishche and they started to bypass it. Also side units started to come under small arm fire which is mostly ignored. From behind Horodishche came strikes from multiple TOS-1A launchers on forward units of the Uki column. Effect was that everybody stopped in its tracks. At the same time death started to dance on the rear of forces with strikes from Debaltseve and Brianka. From the Russian border a flight of Su-34 attack planes sent over 30 Kh-31 Anti-radiation missiles on active radars in breach and on staging areas around Troitske. By 08.00 the attack completely stalled and degenerated into a typical Cauldron Donbass fight. Donbass forces started to pick out vehicles one by one with Coronet ATM and Krasnopol KM-1M precision artillery. Battle will be waged for two days until the last Uki soldier is dead or surrendered.
Troupe concentrations around Troitske were at 06.30 first attacked with several Kh-31 missiles on anti-aircraft radars, then three Iskander-M with thermobaric warheads on communication centres and operation HQ. After that individual units are pounded with different MLRS systems. At 09.30 most units had serious losses and started to retreat in the direction of Bakhmut- Sloviansk.
At 06.05 first Iskander-M with thermobaric warhead hit the southern part of Yavoriv Combat Training Center, at 06.06 another two hit the middle and northern parts of the compound. 10 minutes later four more Kh-65 missiles launched from Tu-22M struck on different parts of the facility. Results were known only several days later when roll-call NATO and Ukraine documents were reviewed and total loss was established of around 190 Americans, 50 British and 100 other nations instructors as well as over 500 Uki soldiers. Most of the bodies were newer recovered.
At 06.05 first Iskanders-M from the first salvo started to hit 25 different fixed radars. Another 20 hit HQ of Operational Command East, West, North and South as well different HQ of army and aviation units. Another 30 hit different communication centres, TV towers, Another Kalibr destroys most rabid TV in Kiev (according to NATO standards bombardment of TV Belgrade).
Mobile networks main towers and several land telephone exchanges. Final 15 hit Government House, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defence, SBU, 2 CIA safe houses and 5 runways in and around Kiev.
At 07.05 second wave of Iskanders-M have hit remaining radars, anti-aircraft units, runways, fuel dumps, ammunition dumps, military bases, remaining communication centres, After Iskanders 10 minutes later started to rain 200 Onix, Calibr and Kh-35 missiles hitting Ukies elites, which helped to organize Maidan, Azov and Praviy sector HQ and leaders. By mistake a few miss-targeted Kalibrs destroy the American embassy in Kiev. After a mistake one KGB operative is sent to Yakutsk and 6 others are reprimanded and fined 1000 Rubles. The Ministry of Defense of RF uses the following template in the Briefing for the press in accordance with NATO standards.
( https://www.nato.int/koSovo/press/b990508a.htm ).
Putin apologises to Biden. (Check the apology of Clinton to Chinese). MoD RF does not need to invent any explanations, just use templates from NATO. They should prepare them in advance because all of the action should be over in 1 or 2 days. (NATO Kosovo, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria).
Also, a missile hit a British embassy which had missed Foreign Ministry of Ukraine across the road.
Also in western part of Ukraine certain infrastructure objects were hit like some bridges, power transformers on high voltage transmission networks, even some pylons at high power lines connecting Ukraine with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova and Romania. By 11.00 west of Ukraine was without any electrical power, land lines, internet and mobile phones. (Also it is according to NATO standards, check attack on Yugoslavia). Most of the oligarchs, high officials and Ukronazi leaders were dead or wounded with the rest on the run.
Spetsnaz units for Operation “Забор” or “Fence” managed to land in each NPP and selected objects and bridges. Uki protection units gave weak resistance and by 08.00 Rosatom specialists joined Russian protection forces. They immediately started to shut down reactors except one in each NPP. Other teams took 5 bridges over Dnieper river at Nova Kahovka, Kherson, on Samara river Novoselivka, on Oskil river at Senkove and at Kupjansk.
By noon -12.00 DNR artillery starts to pound front lines. At certain front segments Uki platoons kill or detain their officers and hoist LDNR flags. Complete front line of Uki forces starts to open like a zipper.
In the afternoon Donbass forces aided with volunteers slowly start to advance and liberate its territory which is at the moment occupied by Ukies. (Mariupol and the rest of the territories of Donetsk – DNR and Lugansk – LNR). Most Ukrainian units start to retreat after receiving artillery strikes, unable to report and receive commands from upper Hqs. Any radiation from Radars and transmitters are recorded by flying A-50U planes, location relayed to Su-34 and attacked with anti radiation missiles. That provided to complete disorganization and lack of coordination of Uki forces. Units with predominant Russian speakers started to join LDNR forces. Some polite green men attached themselves to converted Uki units.
Now Russian Air Force VVS has complete air supremacy. Over Ukraine they managed to suppress planes by damaging runways. Helicopters were still able to fly but have been hunted down. Some managed to escape to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Now Su – 34 and Su-24 and Su-25 started systematically destroying the infrastructure of the Ukrainian Air-Force. Over 100 raids were made during the day with the loss of 2 Su-24. Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 managed to shoot down 5 Uki planes, 6 US and NATO drones and managed to force RC-135 to land on Zaporizhzhia International Airport. They had to departure runway at high speed because the runway was already partially damaged. In one hour after landing the heavily damaged aircraft was destroyed by its crew. Later during the afternoon flight of Su-25 destroyed over 30 planes on the ground.
The HQ of Ukrainian Air Asault Forces in Zhytomir and Ozerne Air Base were heavily attacked from the beginning. After Iskander-M destroyed radar several missiles damaged the runway and taxiways stranding planes on the ground. After several Kh-31 on any radiating source Su-24 and Su-25 destroyed HQ, over 15 Aircraft and 102nd Material storage with more than 150 transport vehicles.
Ukrainian NAVY tried to go on sea. Frigate “Hetman Sahaydahniy” was hit by Onix 5 km from shore at 8.34. Missile boat “Pryluky had several officers thrown overboard when 10 km from Odessa, hoisted Russian flag and radioed to Sevastopol for help. They got help in the guise of 2 attack helicopters and a few Spetsnaz guys which repelled from heli.
When night fell there was utter devastation of the war infrastructure of Ukraine. Fixed assets as radars runways, ammo and fuel dumps destroyed, communication centres destroyed, in west Ukraine total darkness, no land lines, internet and mobile phones. NATO communication jammed or destroyed, several reconnaissance satellites overflying Ukraine blinded or jammed, 6 drones lost.
Good part of state apparatus – ministries, Hqs heavily damaged, key personnel dead, wounded or in flight.
During the night from 1st to 2nd March a lot of things started to happen. Mysterious helicopters were flying from Belarus along the west borders of Ukraine deploying Spetsnaz teams on roads and blocking them. Spetsnaz hunts for remnants of Ukronazis in western parts of Ukraine. In towns and villages of East and South Ukraine, militia units were formed. Lot of army units detained officers, killed NATO advisers, and organised defence of their positions. Some polite green men attached themselves to converted Uki units.
The Pentagon and Brussels were in shock. From the trickle of information received, picture of the catastrophe started to emerge. With most assets they have lost contact. Out of more than 8000 NATO trainers, advisers, spec forces they have had reports only from few and that was only bad news. They decided to risk some more Global Hawk drones with a planned flight from Poland over Kiev and then along the Dnieper river to Odessa and to Romania. They lost contact as drone crossed the Ukraine border.
2nd March
During night any radiation emitter that appeared on the screens of A-50U aircraft on station, depending on position and distance, was suppressed either by Iskander-M, Onix or Kh-31.
Spetsnaz teams in NPP had few skirmishes with small groups of Ukies. All reactors except one on each NPP have been shut down.
Spetsnaz teams blocking certain bridges were attacked more fiercely but were supported by Su-24 and Su-25 as well as attack helicopters and repelled all attacks during night with only light losses.
Teams on west borders started to interdict the flow of refugees and started to detain all men at 18-50 years of age. They managed to filter and arrest several Praviy sector individuals.
During the night several transport and attack helicopters with over 100 paratroopers and engineers landed on unused Lymanske airfield in Odessa region. After engineers assessed runway condition, a paratroopers brigade started to arrive in transport planes. Also by early morning S-400, S-350, Buk, Tor and Pantsir anti aircraft systems arrived and deployed.
During the night several transport and attack helicopters with paratroopers and engineers landed on unused Artsyz airfield in the Odessa region near Komsomolec. After engineers assessed runway condition, a paratroopers brigade started to arrive in transport planes. Also by early morning S-400, S-350, Buk, Tor and Pantsir anti aircraft systems arrived. By noon there were about 2000 troops at and around the airfield.
At noon Russia proclaimed the no-fly zone over Ukraine and Moldavia. Also they announced that all planes at less than 100 km to Russian, Belorusian and Ukrainian borders have to identify itself.
Military planes will be shot at.
At 07.00 amphibious landing of the 810th Naval Guards Infantry Brigade was performed on the beach south of Chornomorsk. After securing beachhead troops advanced on Chornomorsk harbour helped by the 881st Air-Assault Battalion.
People of Chornomorsk helped Russian troops by pointing out the remnants of Ukrainian forces. In Odessa People Militia of Novorossia has been formed and helped to secure city. By afternoon Odessa was secured.
During night and in the morning more People Militias were formed in Izmail, Odessa, Kherson, Mikolaiv, Nikopol, Kriviy Rog, Zaporozya, Poltava and Slovyansk.
In Harkov People Militia with help of some ex-Ukrainian units stormed some armouries and workers of the Harkov armour repair plant organized a Militia tank unit. They had to repel some hard core west Ukrainian units but after a short hard battle most of Harkov was under control of militia.
The People Assembly of Harkov invited Russian forces to help them to clean the territory of west Ukrainian forces.
By evening most of the Ukrainian forces loyal to the Kiev government on territories east of Dnieper either changed sides, surrendered or were heavily degraded. C3I Ukrainian systems suffered near complete damage and were not functioning at all. NATO instructors were deliberately targeted with heavy strikes with artillery or missiles. Any radar emission was immediately targeted and destroyed in 5-10 minutes.
CNN headline “Heroic Ukrainian soldiers are giving bloody nose to Russians”.
Surrounded Ukrainian and NATO forces near Horodishche were eliminated one precise artillery strike on tanks, APC and vehicles at a time. By late afternoon most of the Uki forces were either dead, wounded or surrendered. Only a few stubborn Ukronazi units like “Azov” refused to surrender. Azov was taken care of by TOS-1 thermobaric projectiles. By the end of the day there was only sporadic fighting and mop-up operation had started. Out of over 300 NATO advisers by end of the day only 20 survived and only because they surrendered early in the battle.
Mariupol was surrounded by DNR forces from the East and Russian forces from Crimea on the West. Resident “Azov” forces refused to surrender. Late afternoon their strong points started to be picked up by precision artillery strikes. By midnight most of the fighting stopped. People militia of Mariupol started to form and take all important buildings and positions.
West of Kiev two Russian attack helicopters intercepted two Ukrainian transport helicopters and escorted them to Sescha Air Base, Dubrovka, Russia where all passengers and crews were arrested. Ukrainian president Zelenski and 5 ministers were immediately charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity.
3rd March
Dawn was witness to a new reality in Ukraine. All bridges over Dnieper were under control of People Militia with help of Spetsnaz. On other bridges over rivers were also set up checkpoints. Most of the functionaries of the Kiev regime were arrested. Check points allowed people to pass after checking the documents. Known members of Ukraine central and local governments, Azov and Praviy sector, and other extreme organizations were arrested. Any foreigner was also detained as a potential member of NATO forces. South Ukraine -also part of Novorossia was similarly organised. Check points were organized on all bridges and all roads leading to central and west Ukraine. Militia units are sent on the borders of Novorossia towards Ukraine. In west Ukraine there were still no telephones, internet and mobile phones. Electricity was available only 4 hours a day.
NPP on territory of west Ukraine Rivne and Khmelnitskiy were under control of Russian forces which protected them from sabotage. Their reactors were shut down for safety except one reactor on each site which is idling.
In Novorossia NPP South Ukraine and Zaporizhzhia started to activate shut down reactors and the situation with electricity started to improve. Also Russia and Belarus started to supply Novorossia with electricity and gas.
Some NATO planes from Poland tried to approach the West Ukraine border. After interrogation by the Russian air controller and receiving no answer anti-aircraft radars illuminated them. After that planes returned to the west. NATO gave up on further incursions.
On the territory of Novorossia over 50000 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered, about 20000 were wounded and more than 15000 dead, mostly from the west of Ukraine. Out of about 10000 NATO soldiers, less than 1000. Most of the dead NATO soldiers were hit by thermobaric munitions so there were very few bodies to be recovered.
CNN headline “Russians barbarically massacred NATO advisers”
4th of March
By morning, shootings on the territory of Novorossia mostly stopped. Over 10000 officials of the Kiev regime were arrested, some resisted and were killed. Electricity was gradually restored on the territory, telephone and internet services also came online. Mobile services were still patchy because main exchanges were on Kiev territory.
In the west of Ukraine there is electricity for only a few hours a day. From time to time big explosions were heard when another ammunition dump was hit, or some forgotten military unit or object was hit. Small arms fire was also heard when Russian Spetsnaz units found some of the hunted war criminals. Attack helicopters were protecting units on NPP as well blocking units on border points.
The Pridniester assembly voted to join Novorossia. Each regional assembly voted to join Donbass and Lugansk and form independent Novorossia. They decided to have a referendum on forming independent Novorossia on 9th of May. Also they requested help from the Russian Federation to bootstrap the economy and help in maintaining security and order on the territory of Novorossia.
CNN headline “Russia annexes Ukraine and Moldavia”
Collective West rages and raves but does nothing except trash talk of some sanctions.
They threatened NS2, but as they retreated Ukronazis destroyed part of the gas-pipeline. Something similar happens on the gas-pipeline through Poland. Russia promises to continue supplies of gas as per contracts through Turkish stream and NS1 and NS2.
5th of March
Novorossia announces that it takes full responsibility for security on its own territory and asks Russia for help in policing borders and air space. Also announces that it will enforce a no-fly zone over west Ukraine, until a provisional government is formed on that territory.
Russian border blocking teams start to evacuate from west borders as well as Spetsnaz hunting teams. Only teams protecting NPP in west Ukraine stay until order and provisional government is established.
Protection forces are also on Dnieper on both sides of the river at bridges and HPP.
Ukronazis are arrested, dead or in the EU. NATO troops are dead, in captivity or they have heavy headaches or Havana syndrome.
CNN headline “Russian terror continues in east Ukraine”
6th of March
All Russian forces have returned from western Ukraine territory. On request of Lavov Mayor, one more reactor in each NPP. Some more technicians and engineers have reported for work in NPP. Situation with electricity is marginally improved in west Ukraine.
The International Red Cross sends delegates to help with bodies retrieval of NATO personnel.
OSCE representatives are in mental breakdown and have requested evacuation. Novorossia forces allowed evacuation of foreign nationals, without any equipment, computers or documentation. Locals employed in OSCE were detained as material witnesses.
Any relief flights due to the no-fly zone have to land in Minsk or Tiraspol for inspection and getting armed guard for protection. Also all of the runways in west Ukraine are damaged and not repaired yet. Only useful runways are in Borispil International Airport which has one runway repaired and is under control of Novorossia forces. Another one is Lymanske Airfield but it does not have much capacity.
CIA operatives in Kiev are dead or croaked. Nuland is out of cookies.
CNN headline “Russia is dismembering Ukraine”
7th of March
Several CIA trained “Guerilla” fighters came forward in Novorossia and started to show new authorities where safe houses, cashes of arms, ammunition and equipment. They also identified CIA handlers and other members of “Guerillas”.
The Temporary National Assembly of Novorossia had its first session in Poltava. It was confirmed that a referendum will be held in Novorossia territory on 9th of May. In parallel with referendum polls for delegates for the Constituent Assembly will be held. International community was invited to send observers to the referendum.
The Elected National Constituent Assembly will start work at 8th of July at Poltava.
Another decision is that the International Court for prosecution of War crimes in Ukraine will start work in Mariupol at 29th of August. It will prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity of Ukrainian and International actors. Prosecutors will be from Novorossia and judges will be from countries which suffered similar atrocities from the USA, UK and NATO. (China, Vietnam, Iran, Somalia, Syria, Serbia, Libanon, Palestine etc).
It also asked Russia to help Novorosia protect its borders, its maritime borders as well its air space.
CNN headline “Russia establishes Kangaroo court against West”
What a great piece! Thanks a lot. I liked the 1000 Rubles fine for destroying the US embassy the most.
Somebody remembered the US Army on request of the CIA of shelling the Chinese Embassy in both Yugoslavia and Afghanistan on the outbreak of hostilities in those areas.
That was F’ing great!
I thought that was a bit steep myself.
……….and then the bedside alarm went off and I woke up. End.
LOL, very imaginative and optimistic dream, but dream it is . As Mike Tyson said “everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth”.
Mike Tyson is not exactly what I would call a big intellect.
As for plans, yes, the fail.
But the purpose here was to show one possibility, not predict military operations.
You might be surprised to know that Mike Tyson is now a big promoter of psilocybin (magic mushrooms). He claims it radically changed his life into becoming a more peaceful and less violent individual concerned about the well-being of all on this planet.
But he is very astute in his comment: the best laid plans come to nothing if you are simply outmatched.
After all, I could step into a boxing ring with the current world heavyweight champion, and I could have all the plans in the world swirling around in my head.
And the first punch will punch those thoughts clear out of my head as the lights go out.
That’s what Iron Mike was saying: all the plans in the world mean nothing if your opponent is too good for you.
Mike Tyson’s statement would be more fitting for the US/NATO forces rather than the Russians. It’s their corporate media which boasts about the invincibility of their shared defense capabilities.
Keep Dreaming
Yes, plans can go wrong. On the other hand, can a demoralized Ukrainian military, made up of conscripts, really put up much of a fight ?
So Russia does not want to own Ukraine again. But will have to repair the damaged bridge over the Strait of Kertch and restore the water supply to the Crimea. It will also have to feed most the Ukrainian population for about a year.
In the aftermath there will be a substantial immigration of ethnic and “other” Russians into Russia proper, because Russia is not stupid enough to annex any Ukrainian territory. Possible far reaching autonomy for the eastern provinces.
Early March, temperature still low, food will keep for a while without refrigeration.
Oh come on now, the Russian Military will be no match for the USS Liberace in a flowing gown of glittering rhinestones with the 1970s Disco Pop Group The Village People singing “‘in the Navy…every young man’s dream”…With the US Harvey Milk right behind fueling the USS Liberace with K-Y Jelly…..This diverse-minded US Navy will be sailing right into Sevastopol Crimea…..That vewy naughty Vladimir Putin and his Wussian Wascals ought to be vewy vewy scared!!!
You forgot one other trivial hit; Queens “We are the Champions’. Remember ‘No time for losers for we are the champions of the world. The funny thing is that to become ‘champions’, one must first learn to win by losing.
I prefer my fantasy, in which Russia achieves its goals without firing a shot or one even one life lost.
If anyone can do it, Putin/Lavrov/Shoigu can.
Of course, that’ll be preferable. But, really, who doesn’t want NATO to suffer yet another humiliating defeat?
Reality is that these are 70-100 year old issues, (that are not going away),and have yet to be resolved, and now is as good a time as any to butt heads and see where the chips fall.
I read once where future historians will describe this as the 100 years war. I hope and pray this ends without more bloodshed.
I think its more about ending the 100 year old war on denial, with guns and roses.
This is brilliant!! I apologise to rzw most sincerely in advance if I’m wrong, but this has Auslander’s fingerprints all over it. I also sincerely apologise to the latter gentleman if I am mistaken.
I repeat, this is brilliant!! And all too plausible.
I agree. And I also thought about Auslander. I have read one of his books and it is realistic and impressive. I learned about the Spetsnaz from his book. Yes, he could have written this text.
cdvision on January 25, 2022 · at 8:31 pm EST/EDT
Thanks on kind words. No offense taken but I am no Auslander. He will probably write it much better because he has local information I do not have.
There is one huge error here.
Left entirely out of this scenario, is the man, the myth, the one and only Jens Superberg.
He did receive special training highly sophisticated special use of M72 and served under the category of “Press”.
So expect him to “press back”.
He is also highly awarded for his military achievements as a “psycopat”, lifetime natural born infiltrator, a special elite “fog speaker”, using many many words and hiding the message within ” a fog of endless stream of nothing”.
He can look any man straight in the eye , even if lying, for at least two minutes without blinking, wave hands like a Kung Fu Grandmaster and speak at the same time.
Jog quite a distance, ski cross-country even longer, and as if that is not impressive, talk AND jog/ski, at the very same time.
A rumor among elite mercenaries, is that his been observed chewing chewing gum, walking and talking, all three at the very same time.
That earned him the nickname “The Tritasker”, setting a new standard for anyone that tried multitasking.
His stonehard face can fend of battalions and his penetrating eyes can hypnotise any man long enough to be disarmed.
During his more wild days in the army, his fists was nicknamed “The Bunker Buster’s”.
He can one his own cook up a kosher meal, smelling so good that within a range of 2,6 km, everyone loses the sense of direction.
Now I can not say this is true, but they say he fired of two M72, with one in each hand, taking down a fighter jet , a main battle tank and a family picking blueberries, all in one salvo.
You can be sure Europe will cling to him in these times of insecurity, like baby child to his mother’s skirt knowing the man, the myth, is our very last hope.
He will be there, as a cliff, as carved out of titanium, as chosen by God, as a Marshall, a sheriff, soldier, a hero, as the sole passport- vice Norwegian ever to do a moonlanding in Norway, as a leader, as a inspiration…
At last, but not least.. as “Psycoberg”
And still his not counted into this scenario? 🤔
Thank you, Andrei, and Thank you, Joe
Brilliant, truly.
I almost snorted my coffee, more than once!
This was quite an appropriate way to start the day, as we all seem to fall further down the Rabbit Hole.
Even though there are signs of sanity, all the while the Western MSM is getting more and more hysterical.
Which, as most of us are only too aware, is a standard operating principle of Uncle Schmuel.
Because so many here, in the belly of The Great Satan, have been inoculated with Doublethink our whole lives, it is a simple task to ratchet up the euphoria/ dysphoria.
All Russia did was issue two clear and concise demands and look where we are.
Insane and inane hysterics with every fracture line of Empire coming apart it seems.
A very very Black Comedy, indeed.
All we need is 3 things, I think…
Patience
Faith
And lots of popcorn
Blessings upon us all
L
Stoltenberg was not chosen by the people but by the elite — the transnational elite. NATO is their military arm. Yes, he is a Superberg, as you described, and they expect exactly this from him. If this elite decides that there will be war, he won’t think twice.
It is for this reason that we are in a very dangerous moment. If a war happens, it will not be nice. Psychopaths in power can do a lot of damage. The Russian army could be badly hurt, too…
A lovely piece of work! The author knows this subject well, and has calculated the efficiency of both sides. I wonder which Officer Training School he attended in his youth.
One of the things I’ve noticed in Australia is the bias of the ignorant in estimating, or should I say underestimating foreign forces, but as I said, by the ignorant. Those who know and have experience are normally much quieter in their opinions.
The thing that really frightens me is that Australia once had very good training facilities based on Australian experiences, but over the past thirty years, we have ceded to the American standard (which is rubbish) in too many areas, both military and civilian.
Although this article only presents the theatre in the Ukraine, there is still the situation with China in the Pacific, and I would think that the possibility of that theatre also exploding as a result of the Ukraine is also fairly high.
What this means is something that both former Prime Ministers, Harold Holt and Gough Whitlam realised was that the American facility known as Pine Gap (which is under total US control) would make Australia an immediate target in any future confrontation.
Again, as Australia has only a very small ‘Defence’ force, and have US military forces based mainly around Darwin, we are in a worse situation than that of 1939. But even worse, our manufacturing industries have been completely removed, to put us in an even worse situation than in 1939.
Thus when you consider the ‘submarine’ deal that was made last year was again too little and much too late, which is simply indicative of what we used to say as schoolboys back in the 60’s that Australia was simply the 53rd state of America.
We are in fact controlled by, and always have been, by the Banks of London, who also control America and the UK, but this time, the other side has the knowledge, the intelligence and the weaponry to resist and to win the coming wars created by an outmoded, outdated, imperialist arrogant dynasty.
If Russia wants to maximize the element of surprise, they should begin their military technical actions at the exact moment that USA gives them the written response to their security demands.
@ Anton Gorbatow
Great suggestion.
It would be healthy lesson for warmongers if:
The Bear suddenly turned around, tore the head off the one poking it with a stick.
dismembered his body in furry and and left the it for the vultures. All recorded on video.
In my fictional novel
It starts with A Russian firework against US missiles in Romania, followed instantly by a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, and an “unidentified” intercontinental Missile traversing USA from the West to the East.
Then the Ukrainian People “loaded up with guns by their Government” takes to the streets and attacks the Parliament in Kiev and dethrones the US installed Government.
The novel end with the American Patriots ramming the Capitol Building and The White House with CAT Bulldozes, and Hangs both Democrats and Republicans from the front of the Capitol Building.
And the day it happens in America? 4 of July.
@Andrew S MacGregor
And yet almost everybody believe in fairy tale that the “outmoded, outdated, imperialist arrogant dynasty” give up ruling over its subjects and, without any visible reason, passover to Disneyland where they enjoy themselves in weddings, funerals, and occasional cup of tea with prime minister.
Dear Blackring,
Yes, we are trained from childhood to believe in ‘fairy-tales’, and that has always been a ‘fairy-tale’.
I trace this dynasty back to Josephus giving himself up to the General Vespasian in the Jewish wars of 66, and we can see that they can be defeated as history keeps repeating.
If you remember back to Princess Diana’s butler being charged with theft, where he called Elizabeth as a witness, and she made the profound statement to him that there were far more powerful men than she, then there can be only one family she was referring to.
Then you go to the statement by Rothschilds in regard to he who holds the money makes the rules, and his granny stating that if her son’s didn’t want any wars then there would be none.
So it is or was a very strong and powerful dynasty, but all dynasties fall at some stage, and I think we are about to witness such an event. Their strongest weapon was always the control of money, be it the Pound sterling or after WW1 the Dollar, but again it is being defeated slowly but surely as they destroyed the ‘gold’ standard and really abused the petro-dollar, and their fiat system is in total disrepair, and once you realise that their wealth is only in ‘fiat’ currency, then their wealth is another created illusion. This is why Russia bounced back after Yeltsin. Russia’s rebirth was based on real wealth, not money per se.
War has to come, but with it will be the end of that dynasty. How nasty will be this war? How nasty was the fall of Rome?
“Then you go to the statement by Rothschilds in regard to he who holds the money makes the rules”
No offense, you tend to believe people who are unable to speak truth on genetical level. The closest they can go is using of euphemisms, some hilariously creative.
Who holds the gun makes the rules.Try to threaten genocidal serial killer who holds the gun, with fistfull of money if you do not believe.
No, Rothchild is just high ranked servant. A treasurer. Bookie of most vicious mafia-like family. Guilty as hell, no argue, but removal of bankers wont do any good as they will be replaced instantly. Only when men with guns are defeated real change will be possible.
As it seems, we won’t have to wait too long. Many of us will not live long enough to see better times, but someone will.
Good enough for me.
Dear Blackring,
“Who holds the gun makes the rules.” Only in a game of poker!
“Then you go to the statement by Rothschilds in regard to he who holds the money makes the rules”
“Who holds the gun makes the rules.”
But then – he who wears the bullet-proof vest and carries an axe makes the rules.
This all reminds me of an old Donald Duck comic book where Gyro Gearloose invented the Unmissable Missile, and then to defeat it he invented the Unhittable Target. (Admit it – you know the one I’m talking about).
There’s always a counter to any threat – but first and foremost you have to identify the threat.
The purpose of the Jeffery Epstein-Gislaine Maxwell operation was to blackmail its guests/victims for Mossad, which presumably answers to the Rothschilds.
The prosecution of Prince Andrew suggests that those ‘far more powerful men’ may have gone a step too far with their expectations of Queen Elizabeth.
Their demands must be of great significance to the UK, perhaps to mankind.
The Australian National Cabinet is under their control right now if I’m not mistaken.
Gladys B the former NSW Premier was a victim who did not agree (eventually) to their demands.
@Andrew S MacGregor
“We are in fact controlled by, and always have been, by the Banks of London, who also control America and the UK…”
You mean the banks of The City.
The City of London is not the same as London — it is the business district right at the centre of London. It’s often referred to as the Square Mile. The City of London Corporation provides local authority services for the area.
“Although it falls under the jurisdiction of Greater London and the GLA [Greater London Authority], the City of London has a special status: it has its own government, its own mayor and its own independent police force. The City of London Corporation operates from the Guildhall and is composed of the Lord Mayor of London, the Court of Aldermen and the Court of Common Council. While the Lord Mayor of London may have a fancier title – and outfit –, the Mayor of London wields significantly more political power.
One of the main functions of the City of London, is representing the interests of Britain’s financial services. The City is home to the Bank of England and has traditionally been considered the financial heart of the UK. However, it has lost its place as the biggest employer of bankers in Europe to East London’s Canary Wharf in recent years. Despite Brexit and the threat it poses to the capital’s financial preeminence, the financial crown of Europe still rests dubiously on London’s head.”
https://theculturetrip.com/europe/united-kingdom/england/london/articles/whats-the-difference-between-london-and-the-city-of-london/
The City is in fact a small target for Russian weapons…
Dear Zil,
I totally concur. Also the City of London was home to nearly all of the world’s terrorist organisations.
If you read a bit of history, William of Orange was greeted by a band of ‘businessmen’ when he arrived in London in 1688. The plans had been set when James daughter, Mary was betrothed to William on her 16th birthday. James was not expected to have a son, but he did in 1688, and all those plans were in jeopardy until James was forced to flee to France, with the new heir. And then after the Battle of the Boyne, in 1694, Lord Montagu created ‘The Bank of England’.
@ rzw
Only the Saker blog can gather such a plethora of smart people with a great sense of humor.
Thanks, rzw, and Saker, for the visualization of a dream.
Though no one wants war, who doesn’t want the Azov and Praviy sector searched and destroyed? The CIA/MI6/Mossad/SBU rats annihilated? I do. Wonder if Operation “Окуривание” or “Fumigation” would take care of all the Ukronazi rats and their advisors…with thermobaric warheads.
This can well be a script to follow filling out the blanks, if the shit hit the fan, or the beginning of a novel, in case no war happens.”Fiction,” said Gabriel Garcia Marquez, “was invented the day Jonah arrived home and told his wife that he was three days late because he had been swallowed by a whale..” You can tell your wife, if you’re late, you were delayed by a little war.
Lone Wolf
@ Lone Wolf on January 25, 2022 · at 9:34 pm EST/EDT
One of first attacks with thermobaric warhead Iskander-M was on biggest concentration of the NATO instructors. I think that there is need to shock them out of “light loses” they had in the last 30 years.
Be careful what you wish for Joe, your worst nightmare can become a reality, never mess with the Bear.
Fortunately it will not come to this.
What will happen is this.
Having egged on Ukraine to attack the Donbass and agreed plans and procedures for the attack Biden calls Putin to provide safe passage for all US troops/agents out of Ukraine.
Putin agrees and asks Biden to assemble all US personnel in a designated place.
Once they have assembled in the designated place Putin makes public the fact that US personnel are being provided safe passage out of Ukraine.
This enrages the rest of NATO and decide that they are not going to stay in Ukraine if the US leaves.
Zelensky realises that he is on his own but still decides to make a dash for it.
The diehards in the Ukrainian military decide to go for it. The rest decide not to.
The diehards are a small minority so they are easily taken care of by the rest.
CNN headline- Biden plays 4D chess. Achieves peace in Ukraine without firing a shot. Biden thwarts Putin’s ambition of annexing Ukraine.
“Zelensky realises that he is on his own but still decides to make a dash for it.”
Zelenskyy is in shock, he hears a prophetic Ukrainian folk song playing in the background.
Ти ж мене підманула (Ty zh mene pidmanula)
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5DwijknO7Q
Sing along with the Kuban Cossack Choir with the lyrics changed to fit the the current event:
“U.S.-NATO said on Monday no fear, no harm,
We’ll go together, arm in arm,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Tuesday will be fine
You gonna protect me forty times,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Wednesday unleash the jackal,
We’ll go together into battle,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Thursday after morning mass,
We’ll go together into Donbass,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Friday have no dread,
We’ll go together and bury the dead,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Saturday don’t pout,
We’ll go together and work it out,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.
U.S.-NATO said on Sunday you’ll be ready
We’ll go together to the Brussels wedding,
I had come, you’re not around,
You’ve deceived me- let me down.
You have deceived me,
You have let me down,
You’ve made Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Completely lose his mind.”
Awesome just awesome. Very very realistic. I was ecstatic reading this. This guy really has done his homework. I like it. I think this is exactly what Russia will do. Russia will destroy the nazi regime and allow Novorussia to take over the area east of the Dnieper river and south all the way to Odessa but after liberating the area they will allow Novorussia to be the government and be independent. Russia for a time will provide security on the borders and in the air but will not annex Novorussia. Novorussia will be an independent country. Russia will support its economy but not be responsible for it. Russia will not allow Novorussia to be on welfare. No way. They have to recover and develop using their own hands. Many ex-pats will return to Novorussia to help rebuild and heal. This way Novorussia will be a little burden on Russia economically but not that much. I’m absolutely confident that a liberated Novorussia will flourish and eventually along with Belarus join a union state with Russia. What happens with central Ukraine (Kiev) and the west is an unknown. Maybe they will be the rump Ukraine and be independent but have their wings clipped with only a neutral status. Who knows. But really heavy Russian military action as envisaged above will send a very clear message to the US and Nato. Russia means business and if Nato puts missiles in Romania and Poland Russia will destroy them. I think Russia will do this action in ex-Ukraine as a warning to Nato. And the combined west can’t do a fuckin’ thing about it. That’s the beauty of it.
Thank you. What a great piece. Hope it will not come to this, but when then please kick asses really bad
A masterpiece ! The humble rzw deserves a Pulitzer prize for fiction & clairvoyance !
8th of March
January Insurrectionists are summarily condemned as Russian collaborators, then frog-marched out of the DC jail and hung on makeshift platforms in on the Mall green.
Resident Biden orders nuclear strikes on Florida. Those aging missiles elected to the task fail to clear silos and explode at ground level, scattering radioactive material across Montana.
CNN headline “Russian nukes US from Cuba”
Hahahahahahahah
Made my day.
It wouldn’t be funny if not plausible.
CNN Headline will be the new meme on this blog.
21st of October
Technicians from Russian and China continue assisting FEMA in cleanup of Montana debris from March “transportation accident”
International search for one overdue US SSBG and three overdue US SSGNs continue. No evidence of foulplay, navigation glitches suspected. Tearful families of missing crews still hopeful.
Raytheon stock price hits fifty cents per share.
Biden still under observation.
CNN headline “Victoria Nuland distributes baskets of Challah in streets of Taiwan”
Biden nukes Miami, but along with CNN, MSDNC, Fox Hasbara, Fox, Blunderbund, and One Neoconservative Propaganda, give Díaz-Canel the honors of nuking the grandchildren of casino and cathouse owners.
You’ve been playing a lot of Command: Modern Operations I see.
@Cthulhu
Never did. Long time ago Command and Conquer
Just a few question.
Why Ukies and their NATO advisers should be dumb enough to launch an offensive with a 1914 mode?
Only artillery ? It’s a joke.
They also would launch their offensive with cyber, Electronic, electro-magnetic, missiles, aircraft and deep spécial forces opérations.
It’s not relevant to presume that a major uky offensive, in 2022, under an american command would begin like reverse Schlieffen plan of 1914.
Especially considering the last OTAN opérations in Irak, Yugoslavia, Lybia.
Franky, I think there will be NO ukies serious attack against Donbass, no more than a Russian attack on 404.
Why.
Because Ukies know that Russia will intervene and then it’s a suicide.
And I don’t think that there enough dumb frantik ukies to make a suffiscient troop to go die for saving gaz and oil american industry from brankrupty or some other american advantage.
Even Zelensky ask anglo to cool down.
Europeans seem bot falling in the trap.
Have a wait for next russian action.
It will be surprising, effiscient, and west will be able to Do nothing just cry and shout.
I was thinking the same. But given the proximity of sophisticated Russian weaponry the overall plan described above would probably still eventuate, albeit taking longer & with more casualties to Novorossiyan troops and Russian planes & missile launchers near the border.
NATO would not escalate against Russia per se. At least hope not as we would likely all become radioactive toast. This would remain Ukraine with NATO advisers versus LDNR plus new Novorossiyan militants & UAF defectors plus the Russian military might.
So it’d finish with similar end result.
If I was a NATO adviser or CIA operative in Ukraine or a member of their families, I’d be thinking of a transfer to Africa, the Middle East, East Asia or Latin America. Soon.
Meanwhile it’s been reported the UAF has had to disperse its forces from concentrated on the LDNR border for invasion, to wider defensive positions because of Russian military buildup in Belarus and east of Kharkov.
Perhaps all the Kremlin wants is to deter Kiev from invading LDNR. If that report is true, they’ve partly achieved that.
How to resolve this once and for all though…
It would probably be more than pure artillery. But really Missiles and aircraft often do what artillery does and I’m guessing that in the past the previous incursions were more like what the author described than what you anticipate.
Yes. But in the past, Russia hasn’t already warned Ukies that She will not let Donbass invasion.
It was just, in theory, an easy offensive against milicias without sophisticated weapons.
And et, even without direct Russian action, the two previous assault were disasters.
Now that Russia have warned, it would be a suicide.
@Darras on January 26, 2022 · at 1:29 am EST/EDT
Yes they are joke. They received the Javelins and they think they will defeat Russian army with them.
But in scenario they planned to use aviation but at 6.05 there was no more runways in the Ukraine for the aviation to take-off. And this is not NATO operation it is Uki operation with assets they have.
I’m curious, would ROE in Syria change to attribute USA as hostile?
It would muddle up an already complex proxy war shrouded by “anti/counter-terrorism”.
@rzw
Unusual agitation of prowestern tinkerbells tells that you struck the right chords.
Great article, and sadly so evocative of the truth as seen by the rulers of the world. Each of the CNN headlines could have been written now, with a bit more frenzy.
Reading the 1999 NATO apology to China for the “accidental” bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade brought back memories and reminds us of how the USA never learns, except how to make every situation worse.
I like the author’s comparison to the US/NATO dismembering of Yugoslavia.
Russia could equally take a chapter out of this playbook and apply it to the Ukraine!
What author has forgot is……Poles would enter western Ukraine on their own or with the rest of NATO. That part of the script should be corrected to process his “blockbuster”. The new Malorussia gouverment confirmed the integrity of Ukraine, including the West parts where they gain autonomous status with possibility of referendum. Poland refused “state on the ground”. Russia enters orthodox Bialystok, it merges it with Kalingrad and cuts off the Baltic Slavs from the mainland. Seeks Baltic neutrality. Romanians are also entering the war, Russia is entering Dobrudja and enjoy coffe at Constanza for the rest of its life.
Please, please, PLEASE: it’s KalinINgrad. Named after RSFSR and Soviet head of state Mikhail Kalinin.
Not getting this right does immense damage to one’s credibility.
Sorry, it’s the right of the pRussians to call him whatever they want.
In any case, when I look actually the author did not mention another important point. What will Georgians do during the intervention? I mean people from lab. And what will the Chechens and Ossetians do? I mean, Batumi is also a nice place to drink something and enjoy the beach.
@ djole on January 26, 2022 · at 3:50 am EST/EDT
No I did not forgot Poles. But real action was really over in 3 hours after 3rd wave of missiles. So NATO and Poles did not had time to change diapers.
After noon next day after positioning S-400 and other integrated anti-aircraft assets, as well Iskanders on and around two south west Ukraine airfields (unused by Uki air-force) it was game over. After that it was only mop-up.
Nice read!
In the end, I think Russia should also “convince” the neutered Ukraine to swap some territory with Transnistria, to give Transnistria access to the Black Sea so they can support themselves better.
If it ever comes to Russia getting hold of those NATO advisors in Ukraine, I hope Russia will not give them a free pass again. They did that in Syria, out of a misguided sense of politeness, and it was a big mistake in my opinion. Syrian forces captured some NATO operations center and detained the people there (US, UK, Turkey military/intelligence people etc.), but had to hand them over to the Russians. Who only set them free.
Russian memo to UK government. ”Sorry about your embassy old chap. You know how these things happen – the fog of war and all that. We’ll try not to let it happen again.
It read like a Tom Clancy novel.
I think such a fiction piece should become a monthly fixture on the Saker website. It will surely be copied and pasted across the net thousands of times, perhaps even mistaken as fact by some half wit cleaning waste bins in the offices of the New York Times.
Perhaps the next one could be about a desperate United States launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia and China at the same time, how they reduce and stop it, and their subsequent destruction of America?
This scenario demonstrates Andrei Martyanov’s assertion that the US/NATO elites have no idea of modern warfare and the multiple spheres of operation it requires. Imagine a DIE student required to prepare a military plan of operation?
“Troupe concentrations around Troitske …”
this had me rolling in the aisles, so funny!
(although recognising that this is a serious subject)
troupe
NOUN
a group of dancers, actors, or other entertainers who tour to different venues.
“a dance troupe”
Also the CNN headlines.
Ditto the BBC how the ‘news’ is almost the opposite of reality on any serious subject.
Good writing rzw. Thank you.
Well, Ukrainians maybe fanatics and politically stupid, but they are not idiots.
It is not going to be so easy.
yes, not idiots but simply outgunned!.. Any non idiot holding knife against adversary with pistol still has no chance except in Hollywood movies..
From fiction to real horror.
I would not doubt for a mo.ent, that the rea reason behind the Ukraina mess we see is the wish to disrupt its ability to provide food.
If I am not wrong, it’s supposed to be the “bread basket” of Europe, and the sickos pulling the strings seems hellbent to create a famine, alongside economical collapse etc.
I see the ground for a famine in norway is carefully prepared.
Hell… we even discovered that once the Covid 1984 was in a early stage, and food shortage was a subject, that our military and puppet state had given away the emergency rations, guess where, Ukraina.
So my five cent for the grand chessboard of war, is that there shall be wars, but not about seizing or concuring land, power and the usual stuff, but rather to destroy basic food production and disrupt say chains.
The “jabba, jabba, jabba, jabba”, will not give instant results in their wet sick dream, as stated on Georgia guidestones, but starving people to death will.
The usual suspects, MIC and such, will of course love that and play along with great passion.
The Last two strange years is only the alfa test level of what’s to come I fear, and we enter the beta level this late winter/ spring.
The only way to avoid that the masses gets time to think and act is to “pump up the volume”, to keep up the momentum and to make sure that before they can organise, they get another bigger and worse problem at individual level, that their focus is changed by force, and starvation seems like a well tested tool to be unleashed as its proven to work so well.
Just some few cents on the possible real background of this mess, and it’s based on the detailed level of activities as observed by me in Norway.
Norwegians did not suffer to much in WWll as the nature, fish from the sea and game on land, where present. These are now systematically killed of and our government even refuse to keep grains stored for emergencies, as if its impossible to occur.
The start of the Covid 1984 and the fear for famine, set focus on this and the reality uncovered, was that there where no food security at all.
Norway has a self sufficient level of slightly above 30 percent.
The art of decreasing that, but making it look like it’s increased, is quite a show.
There is a unbelievable war on the fishes breeding grounds, especially in areas that are highly congested.
The Oslofjord, that was the most fish rich fjord of Norway, as in species and amounts, is now basically dead, but not dead enough, so dynamite in large amounts are used to blow up shallow breeding grounds under the disguise of our big need to be able to host more and bigger ships.
A ” see for your self” example, is to look at this map showing the density of breeding camps for salomon, that has a devastating effect on nature around.
https://naturvernforbundet.no/getfile.php/1391358-1448617566/Bilder/Kart/Kart%20over%20alle%20godkjente%20fiskeoppdretsanlegg%202015.JPG
Joe Doe we will have plenty of rats, cats and dogs to eat i suppose, up here they blew up the emergency grain silos 10yrs ago.
I asked why but never got a answer, that was one of the reasons i got involved with ngo`s and political pressure groups.
Perhaps the Norwegians should declare Jens Stoltenberg persona non grata for being a global warmonger and for his instigation of WW3, while promoting escalation to the ultimate point of nuclear exchange. Stolty makes Norway look as bas as the US on the global stage. Canada is not much better, but we do have an activated and nationwide anti-war movement. Does Norway have a peace movement?
Norwegians could organize a popular response to the aggression of your former prime minister by appealing to recall him as head of NATO. There are many possible responses from an activated populace. Reel your boy in, he’s making the world a horrible place in which to raise children.
Beyond this short masterpiece, to solve the problem on these eternal battlefields of Russia, Poltava, Bryansk, why not integrate into the purge all the Napola of the Papist sects where the hatred of Russia feeds. I know it’s impossible, but the impunity of the Vatican sicarians is unbearable to me. These are where the roots of hatred lie. It all started with the Nordic Crusades 8 centuries ago. When the Papacy proclaims an extermination it never goes back.
Much like the self harm America’s brought upon itself, the Child/Slave Molesting Vatican is also doing a very nice job shedding hearts & minds. No need of intervention then.
What an excellent piece. I don’t know what will happen, but Nato can be broken with a similar humiliation as described here. The US Embassy mishap was a nice touch.
They (Nato) have one foot ready to bail out of Ukraine the minute Pravi sektor or Azov launched their attack. They save their face by saying Ukraine is not part of Nato – factually it is since there’s a cr*p ton of equipment, advisors and money investen in Ukraine. All these are completely fair game during a potential Ukie attack on Donbass or Crimea.
Biden Promises To Keep Europe Warm If Russia Invades Ukraine
Putin Promises To Keep Europe Warm Should NATO Invade Donbass
Will someone tell dopey Joe that US purchases of Russian energy now account for 12% of its Imports and rising steadily.
Joe’s on the blower ringing around for excess capacity and only Australia from 9000 miles away reckon they can help. More natural gas emanates from Joe in that timespan.
The Saker can only come up with one scenario.
Zone A has come up with at least six scenarios.
Enjoy!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swyqBkF6dpk
Any option USA could make a very bad trick to everyone and target chenobyl? This would cause complete mess and millions of casualties for hundred of kilometers, but who cares, they didnt attack Russia, who, in change, could target Yosemite caldera.
Here is what the current Russian created crisis is about
according to what millions of Americans have been fed on television.
The text of the television broadcast I discovered here (video, as well):
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-putin-ukraine-intentions/
They are ashamed to tell the American People the truth.
Ukraine will attack en masse on 4 Feb, under the cover of the Olympics…
The plan is banking on Russian/DPR decision makers being lax/distracted by the Olympics.
Intent is to overwhelm DPR resistance sufficiently to invade Donetsk and Lugansk so the fighting degenerates into house to house urban fighting.
Shock troops will be NATO forces operating under a false flag.
US will present their demands in writing expecting a Russian refusal and will use that event to justify “going for broke”.
NATO will talk peace right up to the second the attack begins.
This is a repeat of the Croatian investiture of Republika Serbska…
Anyone who thinks different has their head in the sand.
NATO thinks they can immobilize Russia with sanctions threats.
NATO has been led to this because AngloZionist responses to previous sanctions have been feeble.
You heard it here first.
INDY
Georgia began it’s attack upon South Ossetia
while Putin was in the stands watching the Opening Ceremony of the Olympics in Beijing.
George W Bush was there also in the stands. I distinctly remember Bush looking at his watch about this time.
It grabbed my attention at the time that he would do this, as the opening ceremony was over the top engaging. How could he be bored and thinking about being somewhere else? I now wonder was he looking at his watch in anticipation of zero hour for the attack upon South Ossetia? Wish that I knew the exact time that he looked at his watch.
Don’t believe Putin could fall for the same trick twice…
…come to think of it… As the West has painted the attack upon South Ossetia as the fault of Russian-backed separatists the Kiev-Donbas conflict appears a near perfect parallel. I can visualize the Western media saying, “Putin has done it again! Just as Putin did in Georgia during the 2008 Olympics. Putin’s separatists in Urkaine have gone on the attack while the world was engaged in the peaceful Olympics”.
Here is how Wikipedia falsely represents the attack upon South Ossetia:
I have to stop you at “Russian-backed separatists”, there hasn’t been any support for D/LNR from Russia.
They are ethnic-russians that do not support fascist ideology.
@ George W Oprisko on January 26, 2022 · at 10:30 am EST/EDT
I agree with you mostly. But all this dance with “Not ultimatum” talks with USA, NATO and OSCE, moving all those troops to Belorussia, Kaliningrad and to west Russia is to prevent 4th of February plans. If they try anything, I think it will be even more brutal from what I envisioned.
Very good story. We might add > ” Russian submarines surface off Martha’s Vineyard 28th February while similarly near Astoria Wa…TU95 aviation flies both coasts of North America…TU160’s land briefly in Ven and Cu….in DC all is panic…”
A vitally important bridge within the border of Mother Russia is struck by a US-ordered missile, resulting in 1 damaged span of the Russian bridge, 4 cars destroyed, 11 Russian people dead and 1 Russian baby alive but orphaned.
That’s a “conventional” act of war, right? So I’m forced to wonder. In the hypothetical Russian wet-dream of a response, why wasn’t Russia’s even purely hypothetical response to this internationally-recognized war crime, to “conventionally” destroy one or more vitally-important bridges within the borders of the US Homeland (I think nowadays much more aptly called “Fatherland”)? is that purely hypothetical, conventional retaliation a bridge too far, even while California Dreamin’?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-WSedqa5zA
I believe that it was Mark Twain who said that the history doesn’t repeat itself, but often rhymes.
Have the US and its cheerleaders forgotten what happened August 2008? Back then a war started after the Georgians shelled the russians in South Ossetia, believeing that US and Turkey have their back. We all know how that one ended.
This Ukrainian job: it’ll be a replay of August 2008 writ large. And it’ll end up the same way – Novorussia may become autonomous state like Abhasia or South Ossetia (which, for all practical purposes are autonomous republics in the Russian Federation); Poland most likely will get Galicia. Hungary and Romania won’t miss the opportunity to take a piece for themselves.
Could have cut a couple of thermos loose to target bio weapons labs though. I think there are at least two in West Ukraine.
There will only be burned ground left of the Uki forces on the front line after some thermobaric hell from the TOS launchers.
I love it. Sounds great.
One headline was missed though:
“Moldavian Parliament votes for Re-Unification with Romania in an Emergency Session”
@ Kouros on January 26, 2022 · at 1:40 pm EST/EDT
Transdniester or Pridniester has voted first to join Novorossia.
And they should be free to go. It was never Moldavian/Romanian land, the way Crimea was never Ukrainian.
Very Hilarious . Made me spill my coffee.
rzw, this was better than tom clancy and reacher combined.
the annihilation was aesthetic and clinical.
The pace adequate to professional pest control work.
The handling of orcs and their handlers sublime.
Many of us won’t need Viagra for 2 weeks after this!
One minor suggestion for next draft: have the International Court for prosecution of War crimes in Ukraine start their overdue work in 𝙊𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙖, in honor of the May 2, 2014 Massacre.
Now for the real thing in Beijing, Feb 04: I can see smooth ivory-colored Chinese digital abacuses and currency flows causing Anglo-Zionists to assume the fetal position, suck whimpering on their thumbs and withdraw without a fight for now… current Russian tension is just the appetizer. The Money will be talking soon!
@ A.H.H. on January 26, 2022 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT
9th May Victory Day (prohibited in Ukraine).
8th of July Battle of Poltava (beginning of Russian Empire and end of Swedish Empire).
29th of August- Day of Remembrance of the Defenders of Ukraine, 29 August 2014 was the day of great Ukrainian casualties during the Battle of Ilovaisk and great atrocities of civilians Ukrainian forces did.
So it is fitting to show all their war crimes as well crimes of their enablers. I think Nullcookie, Brandon and Obumer will be stars there.
Let’s add some seasoning…at 00:01 27 Feb Jim Creek powerhouse is hit by a meteor….at 00:02 the transmitter is hit by a “fragment”. See “Jim Creek” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Creek_Naval_Radio_Station
Dear Mr P,
You have been missed!
And your exploding meteors, bless you both!
I am wearing out, trying to hold the fort during your contemplative Absence. I now understand what Marcus Aurelius meant by, “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” Are the loons in charge of our earthly asylum?
Will you not hold court again?
PS – what do you make of our pal Hal lately? He has left the Singularity and is entering Ecstasy. If my guess of the Götterdämmerung occurring around 2023 is approximate, the fellow may not be able to hold up that long..
Regards,
Ah! Indeed, I took time to pour a footing, visit with friends, warm weather…but to Hal… He’s a fella worth studying…contract guy for political cops, and has been to prison too… One might assume that on occasion he is fed material that’s sourced from such occult origins…and sometimes the stories are true, while retaining the cynical frame and asking “why?”. Honestly, recalling the (three?) patsies (Oswald was one), Brother Hal reminds me of such “disposable” people – but he does seem to have a moral core and does seem to prefer Law to Ukase and tyranny. I think he’s living in a not-good place. I hope he moves west – Utah perhaps, and find it odd that he keeps to his present location.
The Jim Creek “sender” is a fascinating “objective force or factor”…I remember reading about it in the 1950’s in “CQ” or “QST”. Even bread-boarded a ULF receiver to copy the CW transmissions…all gone to dust now.
Recalling “Strangelove”… will Sender Jim Creek transmit “FDG-135” or the equivalent to the subs? I cannot imagine that the Russian EW ELINT fellas are not paying very close attention to the traffic out of JC. (Of course, film aficionados will point out that the CRM114 was a HF sideband device, not a ULF system.
(“FDG-135” decodes to “Wing Attack Plan R” in the film)
Brother Hal wrote that there was a lot of activity over and around JC. I don’t doubt it. Many know that monitoring crypto-traffic allows a considerable array of understanding, even by something as simple as length of transmissions, number of characters, schedule (and changes of schedule), and so forth. And keep in mind that even in the USN there are “leaks”…so the ELINT types working the tasks might be able to read the plaintexts. Years back in Rotterdam I recall some silly enlisted guy stole the cryptotape and tried to sell it at the Russian Embassy…and the Russians played him. They made a copy of the tape and called the cops. Straight to the brig and no $200. Withal, yewbetcha Russian ELINT watches, and JC is bigbig target.
The wild card is could Nato and the US accept such a humiliating defeat without resorting to nukes to save face?
If I may offer my inexpert opinion/observation of an idea which I have not seen expressed in any of the very numerous (and far more knowledgeable) analysis/comments/suggestions for potential Russian actions.
It being obvious that surrounding this “crisis” (whether its real or manufactured “facts”) the only thing of importance is the direct Russia vs US endgame, the result of which will likely be (although likely not visible to the public) the true demonstration(s) of all of the hard and soft powers both players are able to bring to “action”. My thought is the following…
Mr. Lavrov sends a discrete message to his “partner” Blinken, advising that in an hour, the far end of the main runways on Diego Garcia will suffer damage…and then follow through with whatever appropriate missile(s) to accomplish the task/demomstration. The benefits of this, as I see it, would be of an in-your-face (and undeniable) demonstration of capacity/power projection and a warning of further targeting the base from where a (large?) portion of a potential B-52 threats might be launched from. The morale of the troops on the receiving end would also suffer (and news spread rapidly to other parts of the US military)… see here the USS Donald Cook. Others better informed may add other benefits here but I see these as the main ones in case of serious escalations of the nature of “to the brink” between these two nuclear powers, as (in the event of a final escalation) Russia would be forced to deal with this in one way or another anyway and (again, I think) the pre-emptive neutralisation of a threat from this quarter would be beneficial…it wouldn’t be in the US “toolbox” anymore. Also, legally speaking, would Russia be in any violation of laws in regards damaged tarmac on an isolated island the US doesn’t own and acquired in violation of all International laws and norms?
This demonstration would only leave craters (no casualties) and it would be up to the US then to risk drawing attention to this isolated (only geographically, that is) example of an ongoing crime against humanity, of which no one knows anything. Crying “Russian agression” would (I believe) not be the US’ best option but, from the Russian standpoint, the message would have emphatically sent without casualties (very important to the Russian moral high ground and its soft power projection) or direct threat to the US or it “pride/face and the US ability to “respond” would likely be constrained.
Cheers from Canada, and hoping for a non-violent resolution to the much needed global withdrawal of US/NATO dominance/influence/crimes etc. etc.
@rzw
An amusing piece. But you don’t tell us if any innocent civilians lost their lives. And, if so, how many.
Also, one cannot establish a no-fly-zone in the present day over a long defunct historical state, Moldavia. But perhaps your intentions here were political and nationalist.
Post-script:
Surviving NATO, Ukie, and support personnel, having been convicted of various levels of complicity in the war crimes of Ukraine, were sentenced to one to five years hard labor, to be served in Russia’s Far East aiding construction of Power of Siberia gas pipelines, which will provide Russian gas to China.
Very amusing but utterly unbelievable that the US embassy would be targeted at the start.
Putin is not stupid.
Don’t forget to secure the SBU servers and archives to expose the extent of malign cooperation with NATO, the EU, various NGO’s, “investigative journalists”, etc. going back to 2013.
A few examples.
Anti-Russian propaganda by Hromadske TV, funded by George Soros’ OSF, the Dutch government, the US and the usual regime change suspects.
How MH17 was shot down by the Ukrainian army and the subsequent sham investigation, the information warfare and fabricated “eveidence” by NATO funded and controlled Bellingcat, communication with the Dutch authorities how to cover up the mess and the confidential decision by the Dutch government to blame it on Russia, the political trial hosted on Dutch soil, etc.
The tens of billions in “aid” that were siphoned off by corrupt politicians, oligarchs and Nazi militia leaders, the kickbacks that went to Western politicians, their friends and families, including the current US president.
And last but not least: the dirt on every Ukrainian politician/government official/oligarch/Nazi (many of them!) and their associates at home an abroad.
Fun read. I love the satire as the truth is often more entertaining than fiction:
CNN headline “Heroic Ukrainian soldiers are giving bloody nose to Russians”.
CNN headline “Russians barbarically massacred NATO advisers”
CNN headline “Russia annexes Ukraine and Moldavia”
CNN headline “Russian terror continues in east Ukraine”
Nuland is out of cookies.
CNN headline “Russia is dismembering Ukraine”
CNN headline “Russia establishes Kangaroo court against West”
Kudos! “Nuland is out of cookies!” Classic!