by GH Eliason for The Saker Blog
Everything is pointing to Ukraine starting a winter offensive in Donbass and the possible use of a chemical weapon false flag event to kick it off.
The Ukraine of 2018 is far different than what Europe was expecting. Instead of economic and social reform that was promised at Ukraine’s 2014 Euro-maidan coup, the government of Petr Poroshenko is taking a brute force approach to retaining power past the 2019 elections.
European and NGO supporters have been worried that the powers given with Poroshenko’s martial law declaration may be too spellbinding for Poroshenko. They are worried Kiev will trample on human and civil rights in Ukraine.
On December 10th, DNR’s Eduard Basurin stated they had Intelligence Kiev is going to stage an attack on December 14th, the day before the Ukrainian Orthodox Church votes for Autocephaly (freedom from the Moscow Patriarchate).
Ukraine is going to start their attack from the Mariupol region with a 12,000 man group with over 50 tanks and 40 multiple rocket launchers.
This group will make an offensive drive up the border trying to gain as much of it as possible before the offensive stalls.
From the Saker in September– When Ukraine starts the assault on LDNR, I expect it will be conducted in a similar fashion to 2014. The reason for this is simple. Unless they bought an airforce or large scale surface to surface missiles, the terrain and layout hasn’t changed. Trying to blitz in will only go so far before your troops are decimated. The Ukrainians started pounding Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014 to get the republics to defend the cities and then tried to roll in around them.
The first targets to take are the two main roads connecting the cities. Next, Ukraine will probably try to roll in overland and avoid contact as much as possible on the way to the border. In 2014, they had guides taking them across the open land.
The 12000 troops and equipment in Mariupol are there for two reasons. One is to serve Ukrainian propaganda with possibly a feint to draw DPR resources away from where Ukraine wants to be. The other reason is to roll up the entire border while the contact line troops engage DNR and LNR defenses. In 2014, Ukraine did not allocate near enough resources to do this even though other than key border areas the borders were relatively unprotected. This led to Ukrainian Diaspora volunteers sniping locals that were trying to flee the conflict.
Kerch
The Kerch incident and its ramifications are still high on the international watch list because United States Special Representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker is saying the Ukrainian ships might have been in international waters when the Russian coast guard fired on and confiscated them.
Part of what’s embarrassing about Volker saying that is the Bellingcat report he gleaned this from used Google maps to make the assessment and according to the author, Russia was 500 yards over the territorial line. Bellingcat should invest in better resources because they made US Rep to Ukraine Volker look foolish because of this mistake.
Going further, Ukraine is claiming the right to transit through the strait without using the established procedures including using a channel pilot to guide the ships through safely. Russia is saying Ukraine refused to call the Kerch Port ahead to set up passage through the Kerch Strait and this neglect was for the purpose of creating an international incident.
Ukraine took warships through the Strait in September with Russian escort. This is a matter of record that was even videoed. However, directly after, the Ukrainian Navy called it a victory saying they did not call or confirm transit or use a pilot to navigate the shallow channel.
The passage of Ukraine’s navy through the Strait in September was clearly recorded as was this latest attempt in November. If the September record, which includes video is looked at, the accepted law and procedure in place can be shown.
Most western sources are saying the Russians violated the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This is a misnomer because the Azov Sea is considered a private internal sea by both Ukraine and Russia. It is not the high sea and it contains no exclusive economic zones. Either case would have made the UNCLOS applicable.
The text of the 2003 agreement between Ukraine and Russia favors Russia in this instance.
Martial Law and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
The only gain from the Kerch Incident was Petr Poroshenko declaring martial law the same day. It was just ahead of the initial Autocephaly vote for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) separation. The vote was cancelled and pushed back to December 15th, which is one day after DNR Intel says Ukraine will mount an attack.
In the meantime, Ukraine has decided dissenting Bishops are treasonous in an effort to skew the results of the vote to favor the Kyiv Patriarchate.
Ukraine’s relation to its existing churches and the one it hopes to have with a positive vote by Bishops for Autocephaly (independence) is murky.
And yet, Poroshenko’s SBU (Ukraine’s version of FBI) is taking groups of Bishops in for questioning. Ukraine is calling the current Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) Moscow Patriarchate Bishop a security threat and questioning the Bishops and Metropolitans ahead of the vote (Sobor) in what looks like a blatant attempt to change their vote to favor UOC independence.
By delivering the Church to Ukrainian nationalist Bishop Filaret, Poroshenko will be making good on his campaign platform of a united and rebuilt Ukrainian Language-Army-Church.
Recognizing Stepan Bandera Voted a Hero of Ukraine
The Ukrainian Senate (Rada) just voted to recognize assassinated WWII Ukrainian Nationalist leader Stepan Bandera as a hero of Ukraine once again. This move is beyond controversial because the OUNB (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists- Bandera) were WWII’s most enthusiastic murders.
For those unfamiliar with Bandera, his armies included 3 or 4 Waffen SS Battalions that were also prison guards at the extermination camps. The OUN is responsible for the murder of more than 3 million Soviet prisoners of war through forced starvation inside Ukraine.
The OUN committed WWII’s first Holocaust acts at Katyn and Babi Yar just outside Kiev. Today at Babi Yar, instead of a promised Holocaust memorial commemorating the 36,000 Jews that were murdered there, the Ukrainian government put up memorials to OUN members that may have taken part in the crimes against humanity.
Ukraine attempts to say Bandera and the OUN were against the German Nazis, but not according to Slava Stetsko, his one remaining lieutenant and leader of the OUN in 1991. She is the one person that would know the truth and Stetsko clearly says she was in Berlin in 1945 begging Hitler for more money to build armies to serve the Reich.
Recognition of Stepan Bandera by Ukraine on any level should be the factor showing exactly where the country exists politically. Bandera was a fascist and believed in a strongman government. His follower’s politics today is the same.
What kind of country is Ukraine to make a man Adolf Hitler considered violent and unstable its national hero?
Europe and the US would do well to educate the Ukrainian Diaspora and Ukrainian government on what it means to be Democratic. The country has never found its bearings on the one really important factor needed to enter international society and need help.
”European and NGO supporters have been worried that the powers given with Poroshenko’s martial law declaration may be too spellbinding for Poroshenko. They are worried Kiev will trample on human and civil rights in Ukraine.”
Sounds promising — after all these years with rabid Ukronazis and their carnival of violent Banderite reaction against Donbass, somebody’s at last getting cold feet, LOL.
“The Ukraine of 2018 is far different than what Europe was expecting.”
But it is exactly the ukraine israeloamerica desired, planned for and ultimately created.
”Today at Babi Yar, instead of a promised Holocaust memorial commemorating the 36,000 Jews that were murdered there, the Ukrainian government put up memorials to OUN members that may have taken part in the crimes against humanity.”
Actually, this could prove too much even for the West’s Zionazi Officialdom. It’s one thing when the Ukronazis are seething with rage, insanity, and bloodlust against the Russians — a common passion of Ukronazis and Western Liberals alike — but unceremoniously spitting at the @Holocaust trademark, that’s something which the Zionazi Officialdom won’t take lightly.
”What kind of country is Ukraine to make a man Adolf Hitler considered violent and unstable its national hero?”
Ukraine never was a real country in the past, and it isn’t one today either. Ukraine was and remains an ”Abomi-Nation” serving the purpose of anti-Russian political intriguing. It has no other purpose.
”Europe and the US would do well to educate the Ukrainian Diaspora and Ukrainian government on what it means to be Democratic.”
I think they did — and succeeded overwhelmingly!
To understand whats’s happening in present Ukraine ,one has to read this .
Jews and Nazis.— https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-jews-and-nazis/
Nussiminen, nothing will happen. The ukronazis are too valuable as battering rams against Russia.
Croatian president Tudjman (who had similar ideology to the Bandera) minimised the jewish victims of the Croatian concentration camp Jasenovac and famously declared he was “pleased his wife was neither serb nor jew”.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/1999/dec/12/theobserver6
He still received all the necessary support from the neo-cons and Israel to ethnically cleanse his orthodox christian population.
For the zionazis, the enemy of my enemy is always my friend, even if it’s a junkyard dog.
They also massacred the Armenians in Ukraine during WW2.
It’s fully documented by a priest in Poland (name slipped mind).
“Europe and the US would do well to educate the Ukrainian Diaspora and Ukrainian government on what it means to be Democratic. The country has never found its bearings on the one really important factor needed to enter international society and need help.”
LOL.
The Americans and Europeans can’t educate their colonial satrap called Ukraine to be democratic, because they themselves ain’t democracies.
America and Europe are capitalist oligarchies–not unlike Ukraine itself.
So in this sense, Ukraine perfectly embodies what its American and European colonial masters truly are–albeit in more naked and perverse form.
The (Ukrainian) apple doesn’t fall far from the (American) tree.
The point is to invade Russia. The cannon fodder is always what it is. Ukraine human beings I know got out of that part of earth years ago. Absolutely some of the most brilliantly talented beings I have ever known. Sad they now have to watch America be what they left Ukraine to escape ~ totalitarian insanity.
“Hell is empty and the devils are all here,” Shakespeare said that. Dante created the levels of hell to spark imaginative enlightenment.
Socrates, Plato, Gandhi, MLK, and so many great beings ~ e.g., Joan of Arc & VANGA.
When Mother / Father EARTH reaches the point of “quickening” the changing time shall be here indeed. Imbalance at critical mass has to according to “physics” restore a form of balance. What to do when finding self in a deep hole? Stop digging? Or fill the hole with a thinking stuff called imagination?
I love your blog Saker.
Tanks delivered to the port of Mariupol.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/https/colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4618400.html
A mysterious convoy of at least 10 new unmarked BMP-1’s transsported from the Czech Repulbic through Slovakia to the border checkpoint with Ukraine.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/https/diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/3082242.html
Why would Ukraine (or its masters) need a small number of unmarked BMP-1s. They are not sufficient to sway a battle either way. Perhaps they are intended to be used as a flag flag, where they are given Russian insignia and are ‘captured’ by Ukrainian forces, either during the impending attack or the inevitable retreat?
Such as carrying chemical weapons….
Of interest,
https://www.sott.net/article/402615-Latest-satellite-inages-shows-hundreds-of-Russian-tanks-amassing-on-Ukraine-border-in-answer-to-Ukraine-NATO-saber-rattling
“Europe and the US would do well to educate the Ukrainian Diaspora and Ukrainian government on what it means to be Democratic. The country has never found its bearings on the one really important factor needed to enter international society and need help.”
What makes you think they aren’t cut from the same cloth.
It is inaccurate to state that on December 14 the “Ukrainian Orthodox Church votes for Autocephaly (freedom from the Moscow Patriarchate)”. Nothing of the kind is taking place.
First, the actual UOC that is part of the MP will not be taking part at all. The meeting will be only representatives of two groups in schism from Moscow.
Second, the meeting, such as it is (under the chairmanship of “Emperor” Petro Poroshenko) will not result in autocephaly, only setting up a new “united” entity totally subordinate to Constantinople, with far less independence than the UOC-MP has now.
Of course the real goal has nothing to do with religion and everything to do with the political agendas of Poroshenko and US State Department. For more on the forthcoming “Robber Council” see the following from His Eminence Metropolitan Luke of Zaporozhye and Melitopol:
http://orthochristian.com/117824.html
Thanks James. I was coming to the comments section precisely to say this, but you beat me to it. It’s distressing how perfectly ignorant most westerners, even those nominally friendly towards Russia, are of Christianity.
Hi Andrew,
I’d suggest you read the linked articles in my response to James comment before continuing. Then, if you feel the need to to be distressed, you can continue to educate me.
Hi George. I apologize if I offended you, which was not my intent, but absent the additional context you’ve provided your original wording could have been written by the Schismatics themselves. The Ukrainian Church is not voting for anything, because they have refused to sttend such a “council.” Imposters that like to dress up like clergy will be voting, nothing more. The СВУ does not intend to change anyone’s votes as much as simply to send a message that if the Ukrainian Church does not submit to the new “unified church” after the “vote” they will be imprisoned, tortured, and maybe killed.
I understand your desire to keep it simple for the uninterested but perhaps it was TOO simple. Thanks
Andrew, Just to be clear, I am very sympathetic to the plight of the Orthodox Church. I’m also acutely aware of what Poroshenko will do to the Orthodox population inside his borders. My goal is to add to the outcry about this situation. It has been the same since Maidan started. This isn’t a writing exercise for me.
While the people inside Poroshenko’s borders will suffer what they suffer and maintain their faith, it is the duty of conscientious people outside Poroshenko’s borders to do what they can to stop that suffering from happening.
I hope that clarifies my position enough.
I’m couching this in terms people not familiar with the Kiev Patriarchate can bite because this is an update section for the article and not breaking new ground. I’ve made the distinctions you are discussing in previous articles.It’s probably a little more than you were thinking about and the editorial staff at Orthochristian were considering one of them for publication.
Outside of that, I do understand why those distinctions are important to you and anyone else of the faith. An apostate church is claiming legitimacy by overthrowing the legitimate church in Ukraine.
This might help.
https://washingtonsblog.com/2018/09/ukrainian-orthodox-church-kyiv-apostasy-and-possible-holy-war-in-e-europe.html
https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-rise-of-ukraines-ultra-nationalist-christian-church/251007/
https://www.opednews.com/articles/Russia-Responds-to-Ukraine-by-George-Eliason-Minsk-Agreement_Minsk-Meeting_Provocation_Russia-Bashing-181129-311.html
James, I’ll make sure to clarify with the articles I’m writing going forward. While it preserves church dignity, the reality is that it makes the subject more confusing to non-church folk and identification throughout an article will look like this. UOC-KP Kyiv Patriarchate/ UOC-MP Moscow Patriarchate/ UAOC Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church.
The article I’ve done keeping those distinctions clear and showing how each relates to Orthodoxy threw too many acronyms into the air. That was why I added the history of the apostates as a separate article.
Discussed with an Ukrainian fellow during a train trip a couple days ago. We did not come to any common conclusion – not that we expected any, though. His take was that the Donbass is occupied by Russian troops; that Russia made Ukraine an object; that Ukraine has the right to self-determination; ect. pp. I took advantage of discussing with someone who claimed to have participated in Maidan to get his opinions/ideas. According to him
1) Kiev respects the Minsk treaties and implemented its provisions;
2) The population of the Donbass get pensions and social benefits, provided that they periodically register in offices on Kiev-controlled territory. He insisted that 90% of the beneficiaries register and get their social welfare payments;
3) The election/referendum in Donbass following Ukrainian law is blocked by the occupation;
4) Russia was left too powerful after the dissolution of the Soviet Union;
5) Ukraine bore the highest death toll relative to its population during WWII;
6) Tanks, artillery and their operators in Donbass must be Russian because Ukraine had no more than a dozen functional tanks left;
7) The violence at the contact line is instigated by the enemy;
8) Sanctions against Russia will end the war/occupation.
According to my information
Claim (1) is moot because the Rada neither discussed nor accepted any temporary political status for Donbass and its people, which renders moot claim (3) as well because there are no guarantees against reprisals by the Kiev regime upon casting the ballot.
Claim (2) made me questioning why the people need to register, given that their bank accounts must be known to the administrators of the social welfare programs.
Claim (4) might be correct technically, but Ukraine forgets that Russia was asked by the world community to safeguard the entire nuclear arsenal of the former Soviet Union. Russia paid dearly for this “privilege” as it shouldered the entire external debt of the USSR. It took until 2016 to pay back that debt in full.
Claim (5) is correct within the Soviet Union. Poland suffered a loss of 17% of its population, which puts Ukraine’s 16.3% second place. Russia’s 12.7% arent’t that far behind either.
Ukraine’s arsenal was rusty, hence the second part of claim (6) sounds true. However, the industries in the Donbass region were staffed with technical experts capable of giving rust bins a second life. Adding the fact that tanks and artillery were not available to the Donbass militias in the beginning of the war, I doubt that Russian heavy weapons were provided.
Claim (7) is neither corroborated nor strictly refused by OSCE special mission reports, see for instance https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/404963 and roll back through previous reports linked there.
Claim (8) is wishful thinking as sanctions render Russia more independent and stronger.
Conclusions?
The child fell into the fountain but it seems that Ukrainian’s cannot imagine any reasonable rescue action before it drowns.
If I would claim (2) and (3), I would at least set up a contingency plan in case that the sanctions (8) fail (to me, complete and utter failure are a given). In particular, I do not understand why the people of the “occupied” territories are not asked to cast their ballots in government-controlled offices at the contact line under international supervision. If the large majority of elderly and needy do go there to register periodically for their social payments, it should be easy to arrange for a referendum there. Conditions for such referendum to be legally binding are provided for in the Minsk agreements.
Rhetorical question: why did it not happen then?
Dear Marcel,
There is no reasoning with our Ukrainian earth co-dwellers in that matter. No prejudice but that is my experience.
“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free .” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
S75ponny
If Poroshenko does attack, he will risk a Maidan in reverse and a possible break up of the country into three parts, as estimated by analysts.
The question is if Poroshenko can attack without NATO’s approval. He cannot. Will he get it ? Probably, unless saner heads prevail in NATO, which is questionable. The point is that Ukraine is failing as a state. By December of 2017 some 4 million Ukrainians fled to the West and 4.4 million to Russia. Some 100.000 are emigrating every month. The country is being run and plundered by oligarchs backed by Western corporations. A day will come when it will cease to function as a state, seeing an economic and financial collapse, not to mention an ethnic one, due to emigration and labor shortages. Poroshenko also knows he cannot win the March elections. It will thus be very tempting for him and NATO to have the Ukrainian Army launch an attack, hoping Russia would be provoked to intervene and be branded as an aggressor. However, this is a dangerous game, as repercussions would certainly ensue inside Ukraine, where the population is both sick of war and increased poverty. Worse, the Army is made up of demoralized conscripts, who are deserting by the platoon. If Poroshenko does not attack, he loses. If he does, he will almost certainly lose. We shall see what choice is made.
Now Poro has confirmed cancellation of the friendship agreement-!!!!!!- does this confirm no Minsk conclusion is possible even though that is under UN Resolution…..and others have posited it ends the joint agreement on Sea of Azov….soooo…Russia can now legitimately seize the Sea of Azov and blockade it and anything Ukrainian?
The Saker:
It’s nice to bring sll those aspects out but I still tjink we’re desling with Evil here and as Pope Francis last fall I would think, one does not deal/discuss with Evil. Let the world know that you ate aware if their plans and they will pay dearly for their agressions/assaults. Quite recently you had an article which touches about a « just war »; well, in my view, to be able to proceed in such a controlled manner, the power behind that force must really be sure that he’ll have the upper hand. So the agressor must not only know that he’s going to pay the price but he must have experienced progressive hurt so that he will have second thoughts before going too far in his agressions. Unless he’s a sicko!
Harfang67
“…United States Special Representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker is saying the Ukrainian ships might have been in international waters when the Russian coast guard fired on and confiscated them”.
Ah, “Kurt Volker” – what a lovely Aryan name!
People in Ukraine and Russia must have a good idea what to expect from someone with such a nice Aryan name. Which does NOT include the ability to learn from experience.
“Most western sources are saying the Russians violated the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)”.
Oh, is that the one the US government has refused to ratify?
Porkoshenko is hellbent on spilling more Slavic blood. That’s what his satanic bosses really want.
To ease a bit the somber mood, let me tell a joke:
How do you know if a zombie is Ukranian?
Easy, he will be shouting: “MOSKALI” instead of “BRAINS”!
If they attack, they will be kicked out from Azov ports. Maybe entire Azov coast will be taken by Donbas army.
Taking the entire coast will solve three problems.
No more threats via Ukie boats of any type under the Kerch Bridge.
Liberating the coastal cities, towns, villages from Ukie bondage.
Securing the entire southern portion of the oblasts.
This also creates more security for Russian territory as a buffer from Ukie forces pushed westward and northwest.
And once the attack is blunted and obliterated, Ukies will lose all the southern region as far as the Donbass Army wants to roll west.
A good goal should be Odessa. As long as there is no Ukie air force or drones, they should be able to do that.
The question is will Putin allow them to go beyond the oblast region?
The US is building a gigantic US navy port near Odessa so it is unlikely they do not have thousands of troops there now. Odessa is enemy territory for the US, it is for more pro-Russia than any place further north. My last visit to the area in April and May this year it seemed the de-Russification was a failure in Odessa. There were no conversations I overheard in Ukrainian and almost no signs in that language. My GF came down for a week from our home in St Petersburg and was treated like a long lost relative from Russia and I was ignored being an American. When we traveled north to Kiev for some documents she was warned not to speak Russian but on the street about 1/2 the conversations seemed to be in Russian but most signs had been changed to Ukrainian.
I am going to Crimea early next month but can change plans if the regime and US escalate a conflict.
Whilst waiting for stuff to happen, here is a video of a couple of the latest Mig-35’s. They are armed, flying in formation and tailgating a large turboprop cargo aircraft. They are filmed from the open tail door of the cargo plane. The Migs have full flaps and airbrake extended to slow them down enough. They even fly through clouds whilst doing it. The closest shots are from ~1:40 onwards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tcmkAcqHS8
Remember folks, according to NATO this is unsafe unprofessional flying, so don’t try it at home.
Spectacular video, thanks. I am currently reading about the Migs in the Korean war in ‘Mig Alley’ and the subsequent space race, so much for unprofessional and unsafe.
Re: Hitler being promoted by the MSM as being bad guy, consider reading Mike King’s book “The Bad War”.