The first day of what will become the Ukrainian Civil war has finished and since by tomorrow morning a lot can happen, I have decided to provide this intermediate SITREP update tonight rather than to wait for tomorrow.
The short summary of the day is: absolute chaos and local violence.
A couple of things stand out:
- The same source who reported that the CIA Director John Brennan visited Kiev on Sunday or Monday also say that the US plan is to use the Ukrainian military to blockade the rebel cities and to use special units (national guard, SBU SWAT, a newly created unit called “Shtorm” and Right Sector gangs) to actually do the repression.
- In a rather bizarre incident, some Ukrainian officers were told that 30 armed terrorists had seized an airport near Kramatorsk. They landed there supported by APCs and helicopters only to find out that only civilians were present. Rumors say that “several” to “eleven” civilians were killed in that operation. The amazing thing is that the officers really seemed to believe that they would be fighting some kind of military force. When they realize that this was not the case, most of the forces were evacuated and only a smaller force was left at the airport. It is currently surrounded by civilians who are blocking all exists.
- Same thing happened to the recon battalion of the 24th Airborne Division which was sent in to locate “terrorists”. When the saw that only civilians were present they refused to continue their mission, turned around and left.
- A convoy of Right Sector militants disguised as pro-Russian forces (they were wearing Saint George ribbons) were stop and searched by civilians. Soon, after some brutal interrogations the truth became obvious, the trucks full of weapons confiscated and the drivers beat up.
- In Kiev the Right Sector has given the so-called President and his regime 24 hours to take action. If not, they promised to overthrow him. In other words, the small, disorganized and demoralized leftover of the Ukrainian police now might be told to put down both the Russian-speakers in the East and the Galician freaks in Kiev.
- As for the always amazing White House, its press secretary has declared that the USA “praises” the neo-Fascist regime for its “restraint”.
Okay, so what is really going on here?
The Ukrainian military is told that it has to stop “terrorists”. Regardless of whether they believe it or not, the Ukrainian commanding officers are more or less willing to execute that order. What they seem to be unwilling to do is kill many civilians or, even less so, take a city by force. So they stop in the outskirts and conduct very tense and unpleasant dialog with very hostile and suspicious civilians.
The Ukrainian security services are probably more willing to shoot civilians, but they seem to be really weary of entering the rebel cities, and I can’t blame them. Unlike most of the barricades around the cities which are manned with civilians (including women and senior folks), some barricades and buildings inside the city are defended by armed men, some definitely with military experience, and supported by many civilian demonstrators. Any SBU force seen shooting civilians risks being killed by a lynch mob.
The Right Sector thugs would love to kill as many of the accursed Moskals as possible, but they have neither the training nor the numbers to seize a town. And should they be caught they have no hope whatsoever to make it out alive. They will be literally torn into pieces by the locals.
So, to sum it up so far:
1) The Ukrainian military only pretends to participate in the so-called anti-terrorist operation. While some units from Galicia might try it, most units are probably unwilling to shoot many civilians.
2) The cops, SWAT teams and SBU special forces probably would not mind shooting into a crowd, but they would be fearful to enter inside the urban environment of a city and storm buildings while having a furious mob all around them.
3) As for the neo-Nazi thugs and common criminals hired by the oligarchs, they have neither the training nor the means to put down a city.
Thus, the first day of that civil war is one of total chaos and confusion with only localized violence. Even if 11 civilians were killed, this is nothing compared with what would happen in the Ukrainian military decided to attack a city with Multiple Rocket Launchers like the Georgian did with Tskhinval in 08.08.08.
A few words about the Russian speaking opposition now.
I have watched as much video footage today as I could and here is what I see:
1) Lots of real civilians, unarmed, including women and seniors. They seem both frightened and very angry. Their plan is to form a human shield to stop the Fascist assault.
2) Lots of determined and solid looking men, many of the coal-mine workers. They are armed with metal rods, sticks and a few Molotov cocktails. Any trained force armed with real assault rifles could easily kill them, but they would probably make minced meat our of Right Sector thugs. These are simple but *very* tough men, and boy do they look mad….
3) An assortment of self-organized armed groups, mostly equipped with handguns and assault rifles, they have some real firepower, but are poorly trained and poorly commanded. They could not stop a determined assault either, but they could provide enough firepower locally to scare off the cops.
4) A few small groups (3-5 men) here and there who look like they know what they are doing. Some are former paratroopers, others have served in other well-trained units. They seem to be trying hard to get a more or less organized resistance going and they probably could mount an intelligent attack on an enemy column (as happened over the week-end in one case). I don’t think that these groups are very numerous, but they could show up anywhere and they are therefore a real threat to any attacking force.
Taken separately, none of these defenders amount to much of a force to protect even a small city. However, the combination of these very different type of defenders might present a real problem for the Ukrainian command, especially considering the morale problems on the Ukrainian side and what appears to be a fierce determination triggered by rage and fear by the Russian-speakers.
Besides, urban assault operations are always and inherently very difficult and very dangerous. During such operations the most typical scenario is one where the initial attack appears easy and victorious and then all hell breaks lose and what appeared to be a success turns into a nightmare. It takes not only a lot of firepower to prevail in an urban environment, but also a very strong determination and the willingness to kill a lot of civilians. In the eastern Ukraine almost every civilian runs around with a cellphone or camera so there are “eyes” everywhere and every event is filmed, some are even streamed live on the Internet. Not good for the attackers either.
One more thing: I think that a red line has been crossed today and that now that the entire population in the eastern Ukraine has been assimilated to “terrorists” while the two main candidates to the Presidential elections have been assaulted (and one, Tsarev, charged with, I kid you not, hooliganism and sedition!) there are no more hopes for a federalized unitary Ukrainian state. When civilians were shot today in an official and authorized army attack, which was ordered by the so-called “interim President” and which was praised by the USA for its “restraint” a qualitative change in the struggle occurred. Short of a miracle, my personal conclusion is that Ukrainian experiment has crashed and burned. It’s over for “the Ukraine”.
For several days I have spoken of an “escape velocity” and I think that today it was reached. To paraphrase a well-known English nursery rhyme:
The Independent Ukraine sat on a wall,
The Independent Ukraine had a great fall.
All the West’s money and all the West’s men
Couldn’t put that Ukraine back together again
The only question now is what human price will the West and its neo-Nazi puppets in Kiev extract from the Ukrainian people before accepting the inevitable?
Stay tuned.
The Saker
Hate to sound like a cheerleader, but I think that is a very good analysis.
Thanks.
вот так
Saker,
First, thank you for this fabulous blog.
Second, some observers in the West now feel that Putin is being lured into a trap. E.g. Mike Whitney at CounterPunch:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/15/is-putin-being-lured-into-a-trap/
What do you think of this analysis?
@the entire population in the eastern Ukraine has been assimilated to “terrorists”
What did Humpty Dumpty really said?
It is very telling:
nytimes.com/2014/04/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html?hpw&rref=world:
“In a nod to the wide backing for pro-Russian groups here and in other parts of the east, Mr. Turchynov said that, “along with the Russian special forces and the terrorists there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens in the Donbass who were tricked by Russian propaganda.”
Hundreds of thousands!
WizOz
Saker, this is one of the very best pieces you’ve written. But oh, your last question — all I can think is Belgrade! And here it is Holy Week.
And the main take-away from the White House statement is really quite simple: they just don’t care how much they destroy, never put forth any effort to learn from their mistakes, and will just go off on another spree whether they win, lose or stay stuck halfway in between, whenever the mood strikes or a Neocon anywhere sees a potential to cause more harm.
Also, Borotba strikes me as a pretty good organization and they have some interesting stuff to say: http://borotba.org/communique_11_of_the_borotba_union_and_the_centre_of_antifascist_resistance.html
“Having taken money of Ukrainians away under the pretext of ‘war’, all the corrupt politicians and militarists will call us to “suffer in the name of defending the homeland” and ‘tighten our belts more’.
Certainly, the Kiev government understands rather well that such a cynical robbery will inevitably lead soon to new outbursts of popular anger. A war is necessary for them also in order (under pretext of military mobilization and army operational readiness) to impose the state of emergency and ban or disperse protest actions.
And this war will be a civil war – in fact it is already glowing in the eastern regions of Ukraine.
Thus, the junta is preparing a war against its own people but waged for people’s money. The “Borotba” union declares that current war hysteria is necessary for the rightwing government in order to keep the looted Ukrainians in total obedience!
We demand to stop the militarization of the country and to repulse the military madness of the nationalists!
We won’t let them to buy tanks at the expense of our pensions and salaries, at the expense of the education and health-care cuts!
No to the martial law that would enforce far-right dictatorship!
Let’s unite against chauvinism and militarism! Let’s unite for social and civil rights for all citizens of Ukraine!”
Funny you used the Humpty Dumpty analogy, Saker, because it’s crossed my mind, as well. Another conclusion I came to, fairly early in all this is that Ukraine is a failed state. Judging by things I’ve read, as I’ve tried to learn more these past few months, it doesn’t sound like it ever really was a successful state. I cannot see how any parts could become “independent”, i.e., new nations, so I’m guessing that a big ass chunk will end up in the Russian Federation, with who knows what happening with the west. My question for you is do you think the east and south will willingly (like Crimea) and enthusiastically join Russia or will that be a big struggle? I think that if the locals fully understood the ass raping they’re about to get from the EU and IMF they would RUN to Russia but I’m not sure they’ve been informed. So, do the east and south fall like ripe fruit and what do you see as the dividing line?
~ Michigan
If Kiev controlled military, SBU and other forces would be able to re-take the south-eastern cities and regions, then this would be nothing more than the defeat of the uprising of a few, the few not being backed up by ‘the people’. The people of the region would get what they deserve, even if this sounds cruel. They’d be ruled by whoever holds the scepter in Kiev. Why, because they, as the people, did not enough to prevent it – even when they had the chance. A lower single digit percentage of the inhabitants being ‘active resistance’ just doesn’t cut it. Regardless of how dedicated the (relatively few) active ones are.
On the other hand, _if_ the people (meaning a big enough number of them) in the south-eastern regions would put themself behind the movement and be dedicated enough to resist, then no force could (and would not even try to) defeat them.
Take for example the airfield, just being taken back by Kiev controlled forces. This was only possible because the people were not involved in numbers. Even now, all it would take to neutralize the airfield again, to take it over, would be enough people just going there. They would not need to be armed. By sheer numbers they would be able to access the airfield and unarm the forces. What could the armed forces do? Nothing but surrender. If one or some of them would really start killing some of these civilians, the others would just proceed to lynch the murderers right there and move on to disarm the rest.
This applies to all of the cities. Many people live there (obviously), just _enough_ need to get out of their homes and surround and disarm the pathetic numbers of forces the rulers of Kiev are able to deploy (a great number of which would not shoot at their brothers anyway). Not even roadblocks and barricades (at least to stop the Ukrainian army) would be needed. They would just serve as delivery boys of miltary hardware.
So to sum it up, when the people wake up in mumbers and support the resistance they will win. If not it might end up in a bloody conflict with a defeated resistance which had no _real_ popular backing.
Of course, i did not eat the foretelling crystal sphere, just my opinion as of now.
-yt
Pretty much spot on.
Several sources have commented how 20 Greystone members have gone missing in Ukraine. It was only a matter of time, really. Brenann’s visit may have something to do with that as well.
http://forum-msk.org/material/power/10316669.html
I agree with BOT Tak
The only question now is what human price will the West and its neo-Nazi puppets in Kiev extract from the Ukrainian people before accepting the inevitable?
I don’t think they really care about the lives in the Ukraine and you’ve been around them. It’s about $ and controlling the world message and it’s not in a bottle but what Amerika tells you to do and say even if against your nations best interest. Think goldman sacks and Greece.
> In the eastern Ukraine almost every civilian runs around with a cellphone or camera so there are “eyes” everywhere and every event is filmed, some are even streamed live on the Internet. Not good for the attackers either.
But when the hour comes, Yats’n’Turch will switch off mobile networks and the internet, so there’ll be a huge lag in action and reporting. Very bad for the people on the ground.
Honk
O/T but still germane: it hit me five minutes ago that we humans come in three basic flavors: psychopaths who care only about their own wants; the gullible who can’t or won’t think things through and are thus easily led by their angers and fears; and those who do think things through and may or may not have adequate information or be willing to dig hard enough to find it. It’s pretty obvious who fits where but what’s really scary is, it’s only the last bunch who are even remotely capable of self-government…
Nora: why Belgrade?
Well I am still hopeful that federal solution to this crises can be found. It would require the US to signal to the Ukrainians that we accept Russia’s three points: namely oblast governors are directly elected by their citizens, the Russian language is respected and Ukraine have a neutral foreign policy. This might be something Obama and Kerry are incapable of doing.
The bad feelings because of the fighting today could be dealt with if the Ukrainian army withdraws from eastern Ukraine and if the coup government could manage to leash the Right Sector. This latter situation may also not be possible. We should know by Friday if it is irreversible.
Saker: what is the source on Brennan? Can you share a link?
@Anonymous: Saker: what is the source on Brennan? Can you share a link?
http://rt.com/usa/white-house-confirms-cia-ukraine-448/
@Theodore Svedberg
> Well I am still hopeful that federal solution to this crises can be found. It would require the US to signal to the Ukrainians
What gives you hope?
I think the US has made it clear through Brennan, and Jay Carney’s blessing of the restraintful cillings (should we call it euthanasia?) that that’s the way the US wants it. There’s no way back, unless yats’n’turch come to their senses. But the US cannot now go back. They have given y’n’t diplomatic, propaganda and intelligence assurances at the least.
Honk
Mike Whitney’s counterpunch column only shows a suspicion he shares with some other columnists in that magazine, elsewhere, and among commenters here, that Putin or Lavrov is caving in, and they are assuming that the EU and US are rational. But in fact one of their common complaints is the histeria and lack of sense and (reality-based) fact in official statements coming from the West. And barely more than a week ago a Russian FM official made fun of his US counterparts, asking them to take a deep breath and do some yoga.
Putin is fluent in German, and I am pretty sure many in the Russian FM also are, besides English and French, the languages that matter in W. Europe. So I don’t think they would fail to be aware of the US DoE’s embedded stenography going on at the NYT or the London Guardian, which pales in comparison to this rant coming from Germany’s most important liberal daily, as quoted today on the Troskyst wsws.org website:
“The Süddeutsche Zeitung derides Russia in an editorial as a “warmonger,” and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as “chief cynic.” Russia’s role is “clear,” it says: Moscow is rolling over Ukraine from the east, creating “facts on the ground” and spreading “chaos, fear and disinformation.”
Clearly angry that the protests have not been crushed, the Süddeutsche asks: “Why did the [Ukraine] interior minister allow the 48-hour ultimatum, which he issued Tuesday to the occupations in Donets and Lugansk, to lapse? Where were the army and the militias over the past several days?”
In its editorial on Monday, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung went further, writing that sanctions against Moscow were “not enough,” and that the West must “support Ukraine more decisively than before.”
“If NATO and the EU do not now show that they are determined to resist the Kremlin’s aggression,” the newspaper wrote, “even if that costs something,” there can be “an even greater cost … If the Kremlin is hoping for backsliding, it might be tempted to assault the three Baltic states.”
I mean…the only thing missing is the white foam at the mouth… A week ago, on the same website, there was an informal review of letters to the editor and web comments on German media, which revealed that the wider population is not swallowing the hypocrite warmongering elite’s bait:
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/04/04/ukrm-a04.html
I highly recommend it… The party dogma grates on the ear, but if one skips the offending paragraphs the site is often highly informative, more so than moonofalabama when it comes to gauging Germany’s mood on foreign policy issues.
Part of what is going on in Ukraine is the struggle between Svoboda and Right Sector. The Kiev government proper is a doomed bloc between Fatherland and Svoboda. Svoboda has the lion’s share of police and security ministries near as I can tell.
Yarosh of Right Sector has a deputy chairmanship of National Security and Defense Council. Nothing to sneer at, but it’s not that much. Further, Right Sector is itself a bloc and other elements, notoriously Sashko Bilyi, have gotten much less.
However, the seizure of local police stations so widely reported in the south east has already occurred in the northwest. Kiev may already be effectively down to a city administration with delusions of grandeur. I think Odessa, or maybe Krivoy Rog, will really tell us whether the antifascist forces in Ukraine are strong enough to recover the country. I think the failure to recover Kharkhov from the Kiev regime strongly suggests that the federalization movement is bound to fail.
Putin has pretty much surrendered any effort to fight the fascists. Civil war means federalization and neutralization aren’t happening. If the fascists win in Kiev, they’ll be new Dudayevs or Gamsakhurdias, a permanent threat.
And if the neoliberal/oligarch cliques manage to survive? They started all this to prevent neutralization!
As in Bosnia, or Lebanon, or in Syria today, outside forces can keep a war going. Ukraine will not fall apart. No part will fall into Putin’s hands.
Theo Svedberg: A federal solution is always appropriate… within a contiguous nation. Ukraine is Ukraine and Russia is Russia. The problem is that the imaginary line between them has to be adjusted to match reality.
Theodore Svedberg, Uncle Satan, operating from Mordor on the Potomac, has always preferred fascist and other Rightwing butchers as its puppets. Need I mention the Shah, Suharto, Mobutu and Pinochet, and leave the remaining scores out for brevity’s sake. They provided escape and refuge for eastern European fascists for decades, and employment in death-squad duties in the Third World. And death-squads, with barbaric torture, the killing of women and children, ‘disappearances’ and all manner of psychological terror are as American as apple-pie. Not to forget direct aggressions, carpet-bombing, ecocidal warfare through chemical attacks, biowarfare in Korea and deadly sanctions targeting medicines, food etc, as in Iraq. We are speaking here of what I would confidently assert is the greatest force for evil in human history, one whose elites are psychopathic and live to cause destruction and death. I fear greatly not just for Ukraine but for us all, because this Moloch will bring down the world rather than lose its grip on it.
@Honk
It should be possible to keep the cell phones operational within a city and if there are any fiber optic trunks direct to Russia (I expect there are) then internet connection should proceed without interruption. All that’s required are some reasonbly skilled tech guys for some minor reconfiguration, not a big deal.
T1
Anon-X says:
Dear Saker, thanks for your brilliant work in running and maintaining this blog. Just quick thing: can you please add a search tool on here so people can search for previous posts using key words? I am trying to get the info. you and your posters put up about the Holodomor and about the works of Solzhenitsyn, especially his 200 years – Jews in Russia, and how the Cheka in Ukraine consisted of mostly people of Jewish background. If anyone can point me in the right direction will appreciate it.
Terrific analysis as usual, Saker.
I definitely agree with others here that the Ukrainian people need to take a hard look at the grim future if Kiev gets its way and the IMF and the Empire takes full control. Running to the EU would be like swimming towards the Titanic.
I have a question:
Is the federal solution proposed by Russia, which provides for a high degree of regional autonomy, similar to the system in Russia itself? I thought I’d read somewhere awhile back that regional governors in Russia were appointed by the central government, but that there was some initiative to change that.
Our host said: The Ukrainian security services are probably more willing to shoot civilians, but they seem to be really weary of entering the rebel cities, and I can’t blame them.
Hunsdon said: I think you mean “wary” in place of “weary.”
Anonymous 20:57
Relevant question, and I think Belgrade came to mind bc I’m remembering the damage, the whole thing was unnecessary since the ultimate terms had been offered before we rained down such a living hell on that whole area, and also bc it’s Holy Week and so many of the people there, too, were of faiths we don’t care about. Since WWII, for example, can you name a Protestant city or country we’ve physically destroyed? I can’t, offhand. And while we’ve messed with a lot of Catholic countries, and certainly caused Godawful bloodshed, I can’t think of too many bombing campaigns there either (at least if the inhabitants were white). But we certainly don’t have that compulsion when it comes to people of color, or any other faiths. That White House statement was telling: Obama doesn’t care enough to even try to sound like he cares.
a small suggestion for those who don’t already: spend time if u can not only posting in blog’s like this which speak the truth, but also on blog’s which could use some of it. as the Saker noted, this is not a call to cast pearls before swine, but to make your voice heard in places which need to hear it.
Anon-X at 21:40 – search already exists. At the top of the homepage is a dark blue bar – it’s part of the Blogger system run by Google that this blog is part of. There’s a search box in the left side. Confusing, but true.
Nora,
Would you consider Detroit, Camden, most of the USA, to be bombed out (from the inside)?
I’d suggest, with all this civilian free media (phones, cameras and internet), that Mr Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the former banker, is likely to end up in the international courts for crimes against humanity etc. So also for any stupid enough to follow ‘kill’ orders from these neo-nazi fascist usurpers in Kiev.
Hi Saker
There is a web site
http://www.warandpeace.ru
It has some good information, analysis.
Ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine have falsely claimed to be under attack to justify Russian involvement, a report by the U.N. human rights office said on Tuesday.
“Although there were some attacks against the ethnic Russian community, these were neither systematic nor widespread,” said the report, which follows two visits to the country last month by Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-ukraine-crisis-un-idUSBREA3E0EQ20140415
When people die, I don’t care if it is one or a million, the fact is that people have died. I just do not have the words to describe how sick this is to downplay what is happening. For this to come from an organization that have a supposed responsibility to protect those lives, does their own words then condemn them of their own failure.
Then we have the fact this was a statement issued last month, but this site chooses to publish this story today after civilians were killed by military weaponry. Is this then a direct message to Russia that you are on your own and stop coming to us(UN) for any assistance.
It was “widely assessed” that Russian speakers had not been subject to threats, the report said.
I guess when high ranking officials talk of ‘nuking’ them, it does not count…
this is disgusting
Sorry, but no one allied with the west is going to end up in “international criminal courts” until the west decides they have outlived their usefullness. So, not any time soon. What’s most frustrating is this was so easy to see coming, and the only way to prevent it- dialog and working WITH Russia- has been stymied at every turn, on every level. As to the Putin trap, he’s further condemned abroad and hands the west a pretext if he sends in the troops, or he’s slammed at home and the NGOs pounce to try and get rid of him if he doesn’t.But I think there’s no way he doesn’t act if russian speaking people start getting slaughtered masse. The question is where is his red line, and what does NATO do in response. No one wants WWIII except the psychos in charge of US foreign policy, and apparently that grim prospect is getting more likely by the day.
Let’s hope that someone taped the conversations between Brennan and his Ukrainian partners and that tape is shared soon. That would put an end to the double standard. It isn’t a fanciful speculation given what’s happened in Turkey and the infighting in Kiev.
Just deserts!
Saakashvili wants to destabilize the situation in Georgia, while the members of his party are preparing a coup d’état. To reach that goal activists of Euromaidan have been invited into the country. Georgia’s minister of internal affairs in his interview made such a sensational statement to a local newspaper.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_04_15/Euromaidans-echo-in-Georgia-govt-officials-warn-provacations-expected-5901/
Saudi Intel Chief Bandar sacked. From Saudi Press Agency:
http://www.spa.gov.sa/English/details.php?id=1221189
C
Events of the past 48 hours are undoubtedly at the direction of the CIA – thus the visit by its director over the weekend.
The director, the US president and his cabal are not only war criminals, but criminals at large.
US secret government hegemony is slowly but surely falling apart.
It will ultimately fail.
These crimes must be fully documented so as when the new world emerges (and it will eventually) these people are held to account, along with their equally guilty predessors.
Too many lives have been lost for no reason at the hands of these psychopaths.
Although it seems impossible in 2014 I wonder if by 2019 the European order will be filled with many smaller states.
Ukraine splits, Scotland, Catalonia, maybe Galacia becomes a Zionist Republic.
Russia … is now recognized as the center of the global ‘mutiny’ against global dictatorship of the US and EU. Its generally peaceful .. approach is in direct contrast to brutal and destabilizing methods used by the US and EU…. The world is waking up to reality that there actually is, suddenly, some strong and determined resistance to Western imperialism. After decades of darkness, hope is emerging.”
http://www.albanytribune.com/15042014-putin-lured-trap-oped/
South Africa
.
Long live multipolar world
TARAS BEREZOVETS: I think this crisis, if everything happens like it happens these days, this crisis would be well a huge catastrophe both, for Ukraine, for Russia and for European Union. Because in this case we would see millions of refugees fleeing, well escaping from Kiev and central Ukraine in direction to European Union. And I think the size of this catastrophe would be that big that circumstances of this war we can feel in 20 or 30 years.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3986396.htm
.
Stop NATO/EU terrorism
America Is Ironically Lecturing Russia About Not Invading Other Countries
President Obama warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that he would be on “the wrong side of history” if he continued. He also said that the U.S. would aim to preserve “the principle that no country has the right to send in troops to another country unprovoked.”
Have you heard that 27 US marines have been frightened to death by the Russian SU-24 in the Black sea. It flew over their ship several times mocking an attack and they have filed for resignation. The captain had to abort the mission and the ship has been recalled to a Romanian port.
There has been a lot contradictory reports today of what happened in the Ukraine. Some say 4-11 people were killed, some say a couple were wounded, for example. My guess is we are seeing a lot of unsubstantiated rumours. Trying to sort that out is probably a losing prospect, but I’ll try to surmise what happened on the 15th.
An airfield near Kramatorsk has been occupied by the banderivtsy, there was gunfire, with varying details of 4-11 killed down to 2 people wounded. Latest, the air field has people picketing it.
The roads to both Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are reported as being blocked by regime forces.
Some reports say banderivtsy have entered several cities, but these are disputed by others who say they have not, though regime units are massing outside several cities. At least one regime unit is reported to have said they would refuse to shoot at civilians, if ordered to do so.
My guess is the only serious action took place at the air field and reports of it have been greatly exaggerated. Beyond that, the banderivtsy have stayed outside the towns so far.
This seems to comply with a U.S. strategy laid out here.
US sends specialists to Ukraine to coordinate activity of its state structure – source
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_15/US-sends-specialists-to-Ukraine-to-coordinate-activity-of-its-state-structure-source-0277/
“Since Ukraine’s regular army has demonstrated poor efficiency and is not reliable in respect of the new authorities, the Americans recommend the Ukrainian leaders, while staging a ‘counter-terrorist operation’, to use the army only to cordon off the outer boundaries of populated localities in Ukraine’s southeastern regions,” the source said, TASS reports.”
My guess is the zionazis realise actual Ukrainian military units will balk at murdering other Ukrainians, and don’t want to risk them turning if ordered to assault antimaydana held areas. The nazis and mercs, on the other hand, can be relied upon to do anything, provided they don’t take casualties, and these may be sent in to terrorise. The zionazis are also now mindful of the image they have to project to the outside world, since the Jewish zionist MSM is unable to prevent real news getting through on the web. So keeping the military units outside the cities helps them sell their BS about Russia being the aggressor and the antimaydana being the terrorists.
Alternately, the above speculation may be meaningless and the regime may have been simply consolidating getting ready for a better organised attack.
вот так
The following site describes what happened at the airfield. It includes a couple of videos, in one of which, though I don’t understand what is being said, one guys shows what looks like a bullet graze on his upper thigh or hip. A person tweeted about one of the antimaydana wounded (of 2) getting such a bullet graze. Another report I say described somebody as being shot in the leg, which might also be about that guy. It’s reports like this, and the fact that many people left town to blockade the airfield this evening that leads me to believe there wasn’t anybody killed there.
Вести с фронта, Краматорск: контртеррористическая операция в интернете прошла успешно (видео)
(Lead from the front, Kramators’k: counter-terrorist operation was successful on the Internet (video)
http://rusvesna.su/news/1397589664
(auto trans) “Today the world’s attention was focused on events in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, where large-scale unfolding and tragic events in the framework of the anti-terrorist operation conducted by the armed forces of Ukraine.
Combat aircraft and helicopters made aerial maneuvers, rockets, then fell and exploded affected unprecedented force, captured the city and released airfields, wounded and killed parted on hospitals and morgues. All this TV screens, in newspapers and websites.
As a result, the United States today praised the Ukrainian leadership, calling anti-terrorist operation in the Southeast “weighted”.
Now we will tell you how in reality there is a “first stage” of this, I may say, a special operation.
Between Slavic and Kramatorsk have a military airport, long used for its intended purpose, but several soldiers guarded the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Wanting to join the exploits of self-defense fighters Crimea widely publicized media, the locals decided to unceremoniously, without weapons, to storm the military guard guarding a semi-abandoned airport. The attempt failed, and then, a group of military reinforcements arrived by helicopter. The attackers retreated, no casualties. Local state that does not even have the opportunity to respond to the shots, since it does not have weapons. But the military made a few shots in the air and on the legs most zealous attackers.
The entrance to the military airport Kramators’k evening crowd blocked the locals excited hysteria in the media, telling about the bloodiest war in the vicinity Kramatorsk, Slavic, Druzhkivka. Territory inside controlled by Ukrainian military. Outside airfield surrounded by no less than 2000 residents.
Rising along the fence of barbed wire, people shout Kramators’k vidneyuscheysya deep inside the military: “Bandera, blame home! With whom are you going to shoot? Shoot anyone? “The truth is the fact that in the sky during the day flew Ukrainian fighter, produced by” flares “, which were perceived by local people as military rockets. No planes and helicopters were shot down. As we reported earlier, today near the towns Kramators’k and Slavic there was no fighting and bombing, was just one skirmish, far beyond the city limits at the airport.
continued…
вот так
Continued…
According to our consultant – known military psychiatrist, all the media hysteria unleashed by the Ukrainian authorities to justify their helplessness. Fearing radicals who accuse them of inaction, they mimic the active combat operations to pacify the South-East.
A show of strength (troops, armored vehicles) – a psychological impact, aimed at having to break the morale of the locals to protect their hometowns.
In Kramatorsk and Slavic all calmly after working out for a walk on the streets, women and children.
Ukrainian military are in their positions a few kilometers from the city. Locals told us that the soldiers do not understand why they were sent here, they have everyday difficulties, a small amount of food and nowhere to sleep.
Events in Ukraine are characterized by the use of weapons of mass destruction zombiruyuschaya – media. Every day “delayed” many “spies” are “heavy fighting” and pouring streams virtual blood. In reality, people on both sides still do not want to kill each other.
PS Savor this story makes the fact that the press office of the Ministry of Defence announces that an attack on a military unit in Kramatorsk carried out subversive group. What were the “saboteurs” you can see in the videos presented by us.”
вот так
Many of the comments here assume that the situation in Ukraine will play itself out one way or another through to a sort of international/geo-political ‘business-as-usual’ carrying on much as before – much like all the other western-sponsored ‘revolution’ IOW – with Russia either the notional winner or loser.
I don’t agree and think things are far more serious than that; not least because of ever-worsening US/western economic prospects (they NEED war). This looks like ‘the big one’ to me. By that I mean that, in the US-UK-NATO quest for global hegemony or even to maintain the current status quo, the situation is being maneuvered into one big casus belli for war with Russia. If the western MSM are any guide, western populations don’t need much persuading that Russia is both aggressive and a serious threat – its in their post-cold war DNA – absurd I know, but that’s the way it is I’m afraid. This look to be shaping up as a definitive opportunity to capitalise on that perception with the position of Germany being analogous to both 20th century world wars.
Marx said that history repeats first as tragedy and then as farce. It is to be fervently hoped that is how this plays out, but personally I fear the worst. I also think that Francis Boyle’s prediction is a serious possibility with the Russian’s under-estimating a near-complete US first-strike capability.
My one gleam of hope is that populations generally – even to some extent in the west – are becoming ever-more aware of the locus of the real evil in this world. Guido Preparata described it like so:
“…there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims.”
I would add ‘Occult Judaic’ to ‘Anglo-American’ in that quote, but otherwise judge it as spot-on.
Another video outside the airfield where the commander (?) of the regime forces at the airfield talks with the protestors blockading it.
Как главу АТЦ СБУ Крутова встречали на аэродроме Краматорска (15.04.2014)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txO9JO4VmPw
It would be interesting to know what they were talking about.
вот так
Dear Saker
Here is an e-newspaper in Croatian called advance.hr
Please, have a look, spare some time you will not regret.
They strongly support multipolar world order.
They are against this prison of nations called NATO/EU
The most of good articles are subscription only.
http://www.advance.hr/
Analiza ofenzive na istoku Ukrajine i debakl operacije u Kramatorsku – general Krutov jedva spasio živu glavu, a vojska se povukla nakon što su ih okružili bijesni stanovnici: “Što radite ovdje? Koji teroristi?!”
16 April 2014, 11:48
Anti-Maidan protesters seize six armoured personnel carriers in Kramatorsk – media
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_16/Anti-Maidan-protesters-seize-six-armoured-personnel-carriers-in-Kramatorsk-media-9936/
Wikispooks, I think it is quite a few years past when I first saw US experts openly stating that the US had established the capacity to ‘prevail’ in a nuclear war. As George C. Scott as General Buck Turgidson noted, it doesn’t mean that the US ‘..won’t get its hair mussed up’, but the elite will be safe in their bunkers. The key is ‘missile defence’ which is there to pick off any Russian missiles that would survive the sneak first strike, which is the essence of the plan. Needless to say the USA has at least been honest enough to enumerate seven countries who they are prepared to attack first in a nuclear war, and Russia is one of them. Given that the Western Zionazi-controlled elites are the very essence of evil, this horror is not beyond the realm of possibility, particularly given the maniacal aggression of the Yankee Reich so far.
There is a rather high probability Wikispooks @ 16 April, 2014 02:56 is correct in the assessment as to first strike capability and the potential for major scale conflict.
The US now has weaponry that would defy belief if it were widely known.
High energy weapons systems will be in play. Other non-conventional capability also exists here and now, including aircraft that make the ‘stealth’ type fighter/bombers obsolete.
These will be used in the next major conflict.
It is unclear at what stage Russia and China are at with the development of similar technology.
The Russians and the Chinese need to wake up very quickly to what is happening or it will soon be too late.
The US will soon have such overwhelming technological military force that and the rest of the world combined will be unable to defeat.
A global power balance must be restored or complete tyranny will result for all humanity that are not part of the ruling elite.
The US secret government is painting Russia into a corner – they do NEED a war. They will push until it occurs. China needs to get proactive and provide a united diplomatic front with Russia to stop this western elitist rot before it is too late.
The thing that amazes me the most is the overwhelming dread expressed in ALL the Western media that the Russian side of the “conflict” will gain traction. Put it down to the power of the Internet and to this blog, but I have never seen anything like this.
In the lead-up to the Iraq war, the issue was weapons of mass destruction, and the media basically towed the line, with exception(s)? like Pau Krugman.
In this case there is no Paul Krugman. There are NO voices in the media saying that maybe the Russians are right and the “West” is wrong.
I am very, very impressed. It’s remarkable. And I don’t really understand it… want to understand it.
Saker, could you please provide in-text links to sources when you make these SITREP posts, if feasible? I want to share them with people but I can already foresee the reaction – they’ll be shocked at how different the narrative is, and ask why you should be trusted. I think Justin Raimondo on antiwar.com provides a good model to follow – he meticulously, but unobtrusively, references everything:
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/
RIA says they’ve switched sides
—
BREAKING NEWS: Personnel From 6 Armored Transport Vehicles Sent To Kramatorsk In East Ukraine Switch To Side Of Pro-Federalist Activists
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140416/189240520/Personnel-From-6-Armored-Transport-Vehicles-Sent-To-Kramatorsk.html
Nějaké nové zprávy : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPdH-Yirs0k
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-ukraine-crisis-apcs-idUSBREA3F0E820140416
Zdraví Morava
In the town of Krematorsk the civilians together with some “green” military people have stopped a column of Ukrainian PC (PERSONEL CARRIERS)by blocking the road with buses. After some negotiations the Ukrainians have surrendered the 6 PC peacefully.
Greetings from Singapore:
Der Spiegel is actually reporting today the switch of flag by Ukranian troops, as a headline:
Krise in der Ostukraine
Ukrainische Soldaten wechseln mit Panzern die Seiten
Thx for your blog. Amazing work !
RT reporting some units switching sides in Kramatorsk.
@Petkov
Re: 27 marines resigned
Funny, but unfortunately an obvious hoax. At least the only source that I managed to find:
The Pentagon acknowledged that the Su-24 imitating an attack on the U.S. Navy destroyer Donald Cook produced a demoralizing effect on the crew
27 crew members of the destroyer filed resignation. Commenting on their actions, they said they do not intend to expose their life to danger.
…
That is not to say that there couldn’t be 27 marines resigning because they “didn’t sign up for this”.
Honk
@Wikispooks
May be, according to Francis Boyle, the US/NATO is running a “war plan” and they expected Putin to react but from what we know as of today it doesn’t seem they expected their Crimea take over to be foiled the way it was.
Nor do they actually have much control on the ground given the incompetence of their “representatives” in Kiev, though dangerous the game is not decided yet.
The US is relying too much on its puported superiority…
This is of course much larger than the Ukraine because ‘their’ very existance is at stake.
Their ‘creative chaos’- their word for destruction – didn’t work in Syria. They didn’t get to attack Iran and their real nature has been revealed.
Vladimir Putin stood up to them and has taken on the role of St George, the mythic (Christian) hero who slays the beast.
There is no point talking about traps as all the power of the beast is now on alert and all and every subterfuge is to be expected, simply because they can’t let him prevail if they want to retain their hegemony.
Putin embodies a spiritual energy they cannot see and cannot understand.
Will ‘they’ take us all down with them or will invisable energies preserve humanity?
Ah, eliminate the impossible and whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth.
Let’s eliminate the impossible.
Despite what I have blabbered on about, there will be no shooting war in Ukraine involving European/US troops.
Ukraine will not collapse into constant bombing and killing like Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya.
Europe will not suddenly wean itself of Russian gas.
Trade with Russia will not cease.
So, you ask, what’s the point of all this, because the hysteria level in the West has absolutely never been higher. Obama is on the phone with Putin nearly every day about… the envelope please… civilian unrest in Ukraine? Puhleese.
What’s going on?
It’s all about… brace yourself… Putin. If you see the word Russia or Russian in the Western press, substitute the word Putin and everything will suddenly become clear.
Putin is a very, very unusual bird in the world’s aviary. Very unusual. He leads a superpower. He is a popular leader. And he does not even remotely fear the United States. Such a one as he has not existed in a long time.
This is all about getting rid of Putin. All.
And the level of hysteria in the Western press indicates that they are terrified they cannot do it.
Brennan visited Kiev? My God. The Head of the CIA visited Kiev. Kiev is the most important place on earth?
Snowden, Syria, and now Ukraine. Putin is making a terrible nuisance of himself, and they want him gone. Gone.
army slowly switchinvg sides
the republic of Donetsks army continues to grow
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140416/189242532/Three-More-Armored-Transport-Vehicles-Join-Federalists-in.html
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140416/189240520/Personnel-From-6-Armored-Transport-Vehicles-Sent-To-Kramatorsk.html
Steiner @Steiner1776 1h
Women at #Kramatorsk give #Ukraine soldiers bread after they took magazines fro their weapons. pic.twitter.com/iOFJ51S2Sm via @lindseyhilsum
The British rag ‘The Guardian’ is ‘reporting’ that the armored vehicles in Kramatorsk were seized. Of course many in the comments there will buy any lie spooned out by the press.
Ukrainian troops rode into the town of Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region on Wednesday in armored personnel carriers flying Russian flags in order to penetrate the town, acting leader of the Batkivshchyna party faction in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Sergei Sobolev told reporters in Kiev, a Russian Business Channel-Ukraine correspondent reports.
Earlier, Ukraine’s acting Defense Minister Mikhail Koval acknowledged the incident.
Honk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bpabV3S4uA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTMK7pPGOqI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-4btHgfuFM
As predicted, a convoy of armored units, elements of the Ukrainian miilitary that were sent to quell the pro-Russian protestors in east Ukraine have switched sides & are now siding with the pro-Russian protestors because majority of east & southeast Ukraine are pro-Russian
Ukraine can really goto civil war — leftwing pro-Russian East Ukraine vs. rightwing neo-Nazi West Ukraine led by the neo-Nazi coup-led gov in Kiev that gets only 10% of the vote in national elections .. more details here http://bigstory.ap.org/article/combat-vehicles-east-ukraine-raise-russian-flag
And more details from premier German news magazine Speigel on Ukrainian military armored units switching sides to the pro-Russian protestors link below http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-panzer-der-ukrainischen-armee-wechseln-seiten-a-964690.html
or
this link for the English translated version http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2Fukraine-panzer-der-ukrainischen-armee-wechseln-seiten-a-964690.html&edit-text=&act=url
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-panzer-der-ukrainischen-armee-wechseln-seiten-a-964690.html
“We haven’t had anything proper to eat for weeks, Kiev has abandoned us, we’ve had enough!” says one of the soldiers.
“We are the people” says another.
…nice example of “professionalism” of the new “military leadership” in Kiev
The Ukrainian crisis may have seen a flickering light at the end of the tunnel, as politicians from the great powers collided over the former Soviet state are now bringing up the idea of having four-sided talks between the US, EU, Russia and Ukraine itself. But with the east of the Ukraine boiling with new wave of protests, and Kiev’s government being fed with unreasonable promises from Washington — whatwill tomorrow hold for the Ukrainians themselves? Are talks a real possibility? Will there be any use of them? To find this out, Sophie talks to Ray McGovern, retired CIA analyst turned whistleblower.
..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1f1zgbGMV0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS838faUg-g
the guy at 0:16 doesnt look like UA army,
he is keeping his mouth shut in front of the camera, just using hand signals…
16 April 2014, 16:20
Transdniestria asks Russia to initiate independence recognition procedure
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_16/Transdniestria-asks-Russia-to-initiate-independence-recognition-procedure-7245/
Saker the chaos created is exactly what english controkled west and nsto wants because then stolen wealth is brougjtto english banks in london snd caymen islands and england hpusingmarketinlondon goesup _ wholeeconomy of enlgand is basedon this money laundering.
and englad does not have to pay any price.
thatis whyi sayengladmustbe madeto pay price.
Nuke england
Yesterday I was mourning that this civil war looked to be kicking off during Holy Week. This morning I woke up to news from Kramatorsk, and video, of soldiers deciding not to fight. What better time for miracles than right before Paskha? What a glorious display of “people power” by the citizens of Kramatorsk, nonviolent resistance. Slava Bogu.
KeXXit @KeXXit 29m
They went to fight separatists and terrorists (them said so) and have found the common people and passed on his side pic.twitter.com/PTSQIh2ui2
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Balz to the wall @BipolarVeteran 23m
@KeXXit That’s a BMD AIFV. Now hearing it’s from the 25th Brigade of Airborne Forces.
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Balz to the wall @BipolarVeteran 16m
@KeXXit They’re based out of #Dnepropetrovsk They’re the only Airborne unit to field BMD-1’s and BMD-2’s.
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KeXXit @KeXXit 11m
@BipolarVeteran These paratroopers of the 25th brigade from Dnepropetrovsk
dozens of ukrainian soldiers, set to quell tje uprising, go across to the rebels in east ukraine best place for a selfie!
Simon Ostrovsky @SimonOstrovsky 21m
Captured Ukrainian armour from this morn becomes prime selfie sight in Sloviansk https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/456414622795325442/photo/1