This week’s emerging trends:
The EU is evil. The prevailing view of young educated Americans, as they watch Western Europe beat up and humiliate Greece. Now, they are asking why Ukraine would join such a sick circus.

French Economy In “Dire Straits”, “Worse Than Anyone Can Imagine”, Leaked NSA Cable Reveals [Source]

Spanish dysfunctional royal family comes to Mexico hoping to get Mexico’s help to recover Spanish economy. Conquistadors are returning to grab some more gold and silver from hard working Mexicans. Check scathing Jose Clemente Orozco mural in the Dartmouth College library. It tells the whole story of relation of the US and Spain with Mexico. Mountains of dead bodies and a skeleton giving birth to a skeleton.

The Russians have that pretty well figured out by now. “…anyone who knows mathematics can see that the United States is on the verge of collapse because its debt has gone exponential, but no European (never mind American) politician can state the obvious, no matter how obvious it is. And what’s at the bottom is a giant, ever-expanding, financial black hole.”

“For example, some time ago the black hole happened upon a rather large item it wanted to suck in, but couldn’t. The item is called Russian Federation. It controls a huge territory that is full of all sorts of natural resources the black hole would love to turn into loan collateral and suck in. The problem is that it is full of Russians, who are a difficult people for the black hole’s puppets to deal with. They keep telling the puppets to please keep their toes on the other side of that red line over there, and if they don’t then click goes the safety on their guns, precluding further discussion.”

60% of Georgians want to be in a union with Russia. This is a good place to start reconciliation. With South Ossetia today becoming a de-facto part of Russia http://tass.ru/en/russia/804959. This contention point should go away for good.

Some years ago myself and some other people, set up tents near the Karaugom Glacier in North Ossetia. The following morning, a group of armed horsemen surrounded our camp. They were dressed in traditional Caucasus mountaineer garbs: cherkeskas, bashlyks, and burkas, and armed with long rifles. They came from the valley below, riding on their small agile mountain horses, and woke us up by shouting, firing shots into the air, and whistling with the help of two fingers. We got cornered between an emerald green wall of ice and a white raging mountain creek on the other side.

After a bit of confusion, a leader separated from his group of djigits and approached us. From the top of his horse, he got from his saddlebag something round and heavy and wrapped in fabric. We looked inside and found a head of cheese.

Turned out they were local villagers, who wanted us to buy their smoked cheese and lavash. We were ready to buy wholesale at this point. I must admit Ossetians had some very pervasive sales tactics, and a great testing cheese.

Ukraine, Armenia… next is Turkmenistan?

The Caucasus are in Russia, caucuses are in Iowa. With the US presidential election hopefuls throwing their hats in a ring, it’s important to understand that the US increasingly desperate behavior is a reflection of a financial cycle, rather than electoral. This week, Greece defaulted, and Puerto Rico, a US territory, declared that it’s heading into a “death spiral.”  Both countries defaults can spread contagion with very uncertain results for the US economy.

The West calls for a Greek “regime change.”

President Putin shows determination to pursue Russian national interests wherever they might lead. This represents menacing behavior to the US.

The US government tries to decide who is the enemy number one, Russia or China, since they discovered they can’t fight with two enemies at the same time. [Source]

JIMMY CARTER: Rise Of BRICS Countries, Not Obama, Responsible For Decline Of U.S. Global Power. America that has fallen far off track from its ideals, “the most war-like country on Earth,” a “laggard” on addressing climate change, and “now violating about ten of the thirty paragraphs in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.”
“This may not be the best thing to say to a group of Americans, but I think the historical trend is for the U.S. to relinquish its unquestioned domination of the world’s politics and economy and cultural influence.” [Source]

Going over the Chatham House, Stanton, and other Western think tanks analyses, also known as wishful thinking. Or, is it think tanking?…

The US and EU choose military escalation and sanctions, over returning to business as usual with Russia.

Russia with China in the new BRICS power bloc places pressure on the traditional US-led hierarchy.

BRICS to create their own central bank, as to not to be frozen out of the existing global economic infrastructure.

Adam Mount, a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that Russia is fully compliant with the New START treaty, which limits strategic launches such as ICBMs.

Russia must continue to take delivery of forty new weapons every year simply to replicate the existing capability, due to the vintage of the existing.This is essentially the explanation for the extra warheads which have been ordered by the Russian president. It’s not an increase in the nation’s nuclear capabilities.

China’s market crash. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has reached almost 300%.

Blackrock believe the fallout of any potential debt crisis could be limited by the Chinese government’s effective ownership and control of the nation’s banks, and the fact China’s economy is still a relatively closed.

Putin’s long-term goal is to rebuild and restore Russia.

The West believes that humiliation of Russia and Russians, like “the one last year in Ukraine” will deepen the divisions within the Kremlin.

Remember, it’s an anti-American to draw moral equivalence between Russian expansionism & western foreign policy.

Russia is not looking to go to war with NATO.

Russia is trying to convey that it is not entirely powerless.

There is a growing fear in Moscow that the West wants to exploit Russia’s weaknesses to break either the country or the government.

The Western analysts are asking whether the splits in the government are so deep that the military is starting to give public signals that it will not remain neutral.

The use of nuclear threats coming from Russia will be a lot less effective in the future.

The push for a sphere of influence going forward is going to be made a lot more difficult for Russia.

Putin is living on borrowed time.

The Russian economy is in trouble with really no way out – short of a revolution.

NATO allies are preparing for a rift that will outlast Vladimir Putin’s presidency.

Keeping open back-channels to people around Putin is vital for the US and Europe.

The foundation of the Russian mafia state is rotten to the very core.

If the Russian dream to get a sphere of influence is shut down what next?

Escalation means a real war with nuclear weapons. Maybe Russia won’t get its sphere of influence, but it can eliminate the US instead.

Russia and Beyond: Path to Success

As Baaz pointed out past Sunday, The time has come to say it: It is not Russia that is isolated, it’s Western Europe.

Exploring the Chatham House twitter posts.
Robin Niblett, the Director of Chatham House, recently posted several twitter posts that express the same idea, even fear that Western Europe and especially the UK are becoming increasingly isolated.
a. UK needs to commit to having Europe as ‘its inner circle’; then the US, and then its key bilateral and multilateral relationships.
b. As imperfect as the European Union is on all levels, it offers the main source of leverage for Britain.
c. It is highly unlikely that Britain will get better access to emerging markets if it is outside the EU.
d. UK’s lack of productivity poses longer-term risk to international influence.
e. With further government budget cuts to come ‘the tools of international influence are likely to be hit’

It’s important for Russia to continually explore the differences between Europeans countries and the UK, and also opposition to the EU in the UK.

The EU in general and the UK in particular need access to emerging markets to feed on them. Considering that the UK cannot get an access to the emerging markets if placed outside of EU. With the financial markets collapsing, and the lack of productivity in UK, London will find itself in the same situation as Greece.

Russia should work harder with BRICS and other emerging market countries to limit the EU’s and the UK’s exposure to them. The developed countries suck out about $1.5 billion a year from the emerging markets. The West shows intent to prevent the emerging market countries from developing. It’s in everyone’s interest to work with Russia and BRICS and with each other to limit the access of the “old market countries” to the emerging market countries.

CH Russia Eurasia ‎department had also something to say about Russia.
a. Need for continued engagement with Russia is a key recommendation of our Russian Challenge report;
As a counter- measure, constant pressure on the Western countries to limit their engagement would be a key recommendation for Russia and other countries.

b. CH has specialized in second track diplomacy with institutions in Russia in the past & I hope it will do so again in the near future – JN”
it means connecting with anti-Russia NGOs with the aim to undermine government. Severely reducing the “second track diplomacy” with MGOs and institutions like universities is highly recommended.

c. By conducting an “indefinite destabilization of Ukraine” the Western countries including UK are seeking to ” impact the size” of Russia’s possible military operations in the Caucasus. Upcoming military operations of the West throughout the Caucasus. NATO in Georgia. Along with building up the military presence and attacks on Donbass, NATO and EU ready to start military operations in Syria, Armenia, and Turkmenistan. Essentially, during the next year all four “stans” might be engaged in color revolution attempts and ISIS attacks. Let’s not forget that so called “ISIS” is an irregular arm of NATO.

d. The question of “reconstruction of Ukraine” won’t be address by the West. It’s too hard for the West to “save the Ukraine.” And don’t even ask about “mitigation of financial risks.” They are not going to help, but remember, it’s all Russia’s fault. Theft, corruption, foreign members of government, oligarchs, grab of arable lands by multinationals, de-industrialization, de-population, indefinite NATO war, massive industrial fires, including Chernobyl, market collapse, default, apparently it’s all Russia’s fault if you believe the Chatham House.

See the question: “Reconstruction of Ukraine is crucial, but is the West doing enough to mitigate risks and help Ukraine? #RussianChallenge”
and the answer: “CH Russia Eurasia ‎”enough” is never achieved. I worry that it is easier to for Russia to wreck Ukraine than it is for us to save it ”

Ukraine
De-population, de-industrialization, de-humanization, de-Christianization, militarization

1. Number of refugees from Ukraine exceeding 900,000, says UN report [Source]
UN estimates 900,000 Ukrainians have become refugees
900 тысяч украинцев просят убежища за рубежом, — ООН

2. In support of the European values, EU values, and general malice of the Western culture, a Crimean born famous Ukrainian boxer Sergey Pivovarenko moved to Ukraine after the reunification of Crimea with Russia. Last week he was kidnapped, robed, beaten and tortured by the Right Sector. Reason? Suspicious patriotism. Graphic pictures. [Source] [Source]

3. Ukraine Crisis Is Also About Corporations Doing Their Utmost to Capture Its Fertile Soil
Ukraine’s precious black earth is being steadily annexed by international corporations connected to western governments [Source]
Depopulation of Ukraine creates a perfect backdrop for the privatizations of black soil lands by the US corporations, Sigma-Bleyzer, Monsanto, Dupont, Cargill, Exxon, Raytheon and the Bleyzer Foundation.

4. Ukraine Halts Russian Gas Purchases After Price Talks Fail [Source]
So what will prevent Ukraine from simply siphoning off Russian gas transiting its territory for Europe? Nothing.

5. If Russia wins… Russia’s problem with Ukrainian elites [Source]
Предположим, Россия победит… Элитные проблемы России на Украине Антон Гурьянов

6. Poland: Dołbyczow border with Ukraine crossing will now allow to cross border on foot or bike. For now only during summer months but if there is significant traffic the time might be extended. [Source]

7. Russophobe Savik Shuster, just gave a small speech: [Source]
“Putin cannot be blamed for the disaster that has happened with hrivna. Putin cannot be blamed for inflation in Ukraine. Putin cannot be blamed for corruption in Ukraine. Putin cannot be blamed for non-fulfillment of planned reforms, not of a single one, neither tax reform, nor judicial reform, nor any other. This way you can call anyone of us an enemy. ”

8. Ukraine has not paid Gazprom for July gas supplies, supplies halted from 10 a.m. Moscow time [Source]

9.  Rada ratifies memo on Ukraine-NATO cooperation on information, reconnaissance [Source]

10. Poroshenko says no need for early elections to Rada after constitutional amendments are passed [Source]

Donetsk, Donbass, Lugansk, Novorossia

1. Nikolaev: Avakov unleashes punitive battalion to mop up the city
Николаев: Аваков бросил на зачистку города карательный батальон

The Minister of Interior of Ukraine Avakov has arrived to Nikolayev together with Peace-Maker battalion.
According to the officially distributed information this is done “in order to fight corruption within the region’s police”.
“The visit is connected with the situation existing with corruption within Nikolayev region police. Special Unit of the Ministry of Interior called “the Peace-Maker” arrived together with the minister. During his visit the head of the Ministry of Interior will make a number of important appointment aimed at overcoming systematic corruption in the region’s police,” the official statement says.

In reality Avakov’s action simply expresses the Ukrainian government’s fear of losing the Western regions’ control of the historical territory of Novorossia (the South-West).

Punitive forces have been recently outraging here arranging mass arrests, chasing the members of “Nikolayev People’s Council” as well as the members of other organizations.

This is what can probably explain the special battalion arrival to the city.
It is obvious, that if one wanted to fight corruption, he would need some investigators, not gunmen.

2. 1st of July, 2015. Donetsk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.
Ukrainian forces have violated the ceasefire regime 26 times in the last 24 hours, the DPR Defense Ministry told the Donetsk News Agency. [Source]

“Over the past 24 hours, we have recorded 26 instances of shelling by the Ukrainian army. The enemy used heavy weapons yet again. Ukrainian forces shelled Nikolayevka, Shirokino, Oktyabrskaya coal mine in Donetsk, Sakhanka, Gorlovka, Lozovoye, Zheleznaya Balka, Spartak, Donetsk airport. No casualties among the civilians and the DPR fighters have been registered,” – the DPR Defense Ministry said.

3. Donetsk People republic declares village Shirokino demilitarized zone. They are expecting that the Ukrainian side will do the same [Source]

Donetsk, July 1, the Donetsk News Agency
The authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic made a decision to consider the village of Shirokino of the Novoazovsk district a demilitarized zone, official representative of the DPR in the Contact Group, deputy Chairman of the Peoples’ Council of the DPR Denis Pushilin told the DNA correspondent today.

“As a manifestation of good will and peaceful intentions the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic made a decision to consider the village of Shirokino of the Novoazovsk district a demilitarized zone on a unilateral basis”, — the representative of the Republic reported.
Pushilin explained that the DPR is strictly adhering to the obligations it took withing the framework of the Minsk peaceful process, nevertheless, the shelling of the Republican territory from the Ukrainian side do not cease, and the most complicated military situation is observed in Shirokino.

“In order to stabilize the situation in Shirokino we suggest to create a demilitarized zone in the area of this settlement, — the statement of the Vice-Speaker of the People’s Council says. — The OSCE monitoring mission should be entitled to control over the situation, and the OSCE MM will be the guarantor of peace and quiet”.

The DPR representative expressed hope that the manifestation of good will on the part of the Republican authorities will cause the reciprocal actions on behalf of Kiev. “This will be the first actual step in the establishment of the peaceful dialogue between the independent Republics and Ukrainian leadership”, — Pushilin stressed.

4. Donbass hearing in the issues of the Minsk Agreement implementation with the participation of DPR and LPR MPs
Donetsk, June 30, the Donetsk News Agency
For the first time in the history of Donbass hearing in the issues of the Minsk Agreement implementation with the participation of DPR and LPR MPs and public activists will be held in Donetsk on Thursday, July 2, the press-services of the People’s Councils of both Republics reported.

The delegation from Lugansk will be headed by Speaker of the People’s Council of the LPR Aleksey Karyakin, and the delegation of the Donetsk lawmakers – by Chairman of the DPR parliament Andrey Purgin.

It is expected that the main issue at the hearing will be the violation by Kiev of the provisions of the Set of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreement, signed of February 12, 2015. Particularly, as the DNA learnt, the unwillingness of Ukrainian authorities to enact the Law on the Special Status of Donbass, start negotiations with the DPR and LPR representatives in regard to local elections, terminate the military operation in the region, declare clemency of the conflict participants and carry out the exchange of POW, as well as cease social and economic blockade of the South-East of the country.

Besides, this week President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is expected to forward to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) the amendments to the Constitution, which have not been agreed upon by the DPR and LPR. Donetsk has already called it the direct violation of the Minsk Agreement. As the leader of the DPR delegation at the peace talks Denis Pushilin had remarked, any amendments to the governing law should be agreed upon with the representatives of Donbass. According to the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014, only Heads of the DPR Aleksandr Zakharchenko and LPR Igor Plotnitskiy can be considered as such.

On the same day a press-conference of Purgin and Karyakin will be held in regard to the results of the hearing, which is to start at 13:00. As sources in the parliamentary delegations of both Republics told the DNA, the politicians are going to make an important announcement.

5. Donbass will keep receiving gas, while Gazprom Confirms Gas Delivery Cutoff to Ukraine on July 1 [Source]

Russia and Beyond

1. Successful Endeavor: BRICS New Development Bank Progress Inspires AIIB

Huge step forward from the colonial strongholds of the old market Western countries has been an establishment of The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) idea was proposed in 2011 by the Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz
The NDB bank is expected to become an alternative to Western-dominated financial institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank.
Awakening of the realization that the New Market Countries are on the losing end in relations with the Old Market Western Countries.

2. 31 percent of Georgians would prefer if their country joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), led by Russia, while 27 percent of respondents were undecided whether Georgia would be better off with the EU or the EEU. [Source]

3. Lies about Putin: Propaganda Reigns in the West
Putin responds to threats, to illegal sanctions, and to incessant propaganda with statements that governments need to respect each other’s national interests and to work together for common benefit.
by Paul Craig Roberts June 26, 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin interviewed on Charlie Rose, June 18, 2015.
“Vladimir Putin: You know, I hear this all the time: Russia wants to be respected. Don’t you? Who does not? Who wants to be humiliated? It is a strange question. As if this is some exclusive right – Russia demands respect. Does anyone like to be neglected? It is actually not about respect or the absence thereof – we want to ensure our interests without in any way harming our partners. However, we are counting on a constructive, direct and substantive dialogue. When we see an absence of dialogue or an absence of desire to talk to us, this naturally causes a certain response.”

“How did the crisis in Ukraine that you began with occur: Ukraine was offered to sign the association agreement. Wonderful. However, everyone knows that Ukraine is a member of the free trade zone within the CIS (which Ukraine, actually, wanted to get established). This zone offers lots of preferences and benefits.

It took us 17 years to negotiate the terms of our accession to the WTO. Now, in one move, they decided to enter the customs territory of the Russian Federation through Ukraine. Is that the way things should be done? And when we suggested holding consultations, we were told it was none of our business. Is that the way issues should be resolved, specifically where Russia is concerned?
What has trust got to do with it? This is not about trust – it is about having our interests taken into consideration.”

4. Mortality rate in Russia decrease by 5.9% in May, compare with May 2014 [Source]

5. Just because someone makes your bed, you don’t have to lay in it.
At least that’s what same German politicians are saying now. Top German Politician Blasts Nuland & Carter: “F##k US Imperialism”

6. Russian Tunisia

Tunis had never belonged to the Russian Empire, Tunis was a French colony. However, despite of rivers of blood that French shed no one calls them “occupants.”

«Русский» Тунис [Source]
Russian Orthodox church in Tunisia. Russians in Bizerte, Tunisia.
Русская православная община в Тунисе. Русские в Бизерте
Here is the recourse for articles on history of Russians in Tunisia.
Russian Orthodox community in Tunisia
Осень 2014. № 38 / РОССИЯ ЗАРУБЕЖОМ / Русские церковные общины в Тунисе. М.В. Шкаровский

7. Armenia gives church to Russian military [Source]
The church will become a clerical cultural center.

8. 1954 Transfer of Crimea to Ukraine Illegal – Russian Prosecutor General [Source]
The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office admitted on Friday that the 1954 transfer of Crimea to Ukraine was out of line with the Constitution of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the USSR.
Генпрокуратура РФ: передача Крыма Украине в 1954 году не соответствовала Конституции СССР [Source]

9. Legality of Declaration of Independence self declared by the Baltic Republics is under review by the Russian Prosecutor General [Source]
Генпрокуратура РФ проверит законность выхода Прибалтики из СССР
Russian prosecutor general receives MP request to review recognition of Baltic States

Historical essay on the subject of how and when the Baltic territories were part of Russia. How Russians bought Riga
Как русские купили Ригу

Treaty of Nystad in 1771 ended the Great Northern War that was started by Sweden attacking Russia at the time when Russia was fighting nomads on the South (Modern South Ukraine and Crimea). Peter the Great, defeated the hitherto so powerful Swedish Army at Poltava.
Sounds familiar? European powers have been using two front war strategy to attack Russia since always.

In Nystad, King Frederick I of Sweden sold Estonia, Livonia, Ingria, and Southeast Finland (Kexholmslän and part of Karelia) to Russia in exchange for two million silver thaler, while Russia returned the bulk of Finland to Swedish rule.
Queen Ulrica sold to Russia the Baltic provinces of Livonia, Esthonia, and Ingria. Russia paid a million of gold rubles for Livonia. Peter the Great, Emperor of Russia: A Study of Historical Biography, Volume 2 By Eugene Schuyler, p. 410.

10. As a gentle reminder that people are not just mortal, but some are suddenly mortal, a monument to commemorate the memory of General Pavel Sudoplatov, a special forces legend, who masterminded and organized the execution of revolutionary war criminals and executioner of Russian people Lev Bronstein Trotskyand, and the Nazi collaborator and OUN, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, leader Yevhen Konovalets. [Source]

11. The NATO Buildup On Russia’s Border – Groundless Pretext For Cold War Revival [Source]

12. Tougher sanctions will not help Ukraine [Source]
Professor: the West seems to prefer to allow Ukraine to break down than to talk with Putin
Stefan Hedlund, Uppsala university
Skärpta sanktioner hjälper inte Ukraina
Professor: Väst tycks hellre låta Ukraina bryta samman än att samtala med Putin

“The crisis in Ukraine is now heading into a likely decisive final stage. Despite extensive efforts to bring order in one’s own house by president Petro Porosjenko, it becomes increasingly clear that his ”friends” in the west does not intend to provide any significant help.

Ever since the former president Viktor Yanukovych was driven into exile, it has been clear that there are only two ways for the west to provide effective help. One of which has been military aid, to defeat the Russian separatists, which has been considered to be too dangerous. The second has been the financial help, to stand against Russian ambitions to undermine the foundations of the state, which has been considered to be too expensive. The Hungarian-American financier and philanthropist George Soros has put a price tag of 50 billion dollars.

Instead of helping Ukraine, governments in the West have chosen to punish Russia through economic sanctions and vilification of president Vladimir Putin. It has given many points in political debates, but it has not been of help to Ukraine. Disqualifications of Putin has rather made the evil worse, by burning all the bridges for compromise and reconciliation.

Two factors are absolutely crucial for the further development. One is that the war in Donbass must be brought to an end, which does not seem to be something to be reckoned with. The other you need to reach a settlement with its creditors on debt relief.
The two are intimately interconnected. The war is certainly devastating in terms of death and suffering and material destruction. But its most devastating consequence is yet to create total uncertainty about Ukraine’s future.

The combination of a military games without end, and a constant threat of escalation to full-scale invasion, means that no one dares to invest, and that the country’s economic future is depleted.”

Professor makes suggestion that by simply blocking the border with Donbass, and forgiving Ukraine $3billion loan. And, I would add, by giving free gas to Ukraine. Russia would most certainly contribute to the easiness of the situation.

“The big question is why you would show such courtesy. Ever since the crisis became acute, the Russian strategy has been to show that Ukraine can’t survive without constructive Russian involvement. And the strategy is now on the way to winning.

Ukraine’s GDP in the first quarter of 2015 was 17.6% lower than in the corresponding period of 2014. Industrial output in may was 20 per cent lower than in may 2014. The rate of inflation exceeds 60%. The country is de facto bankrupt. For the winter, millions of households are forced to freeze, then they can’t afford to pay their gas bill. The risk of a new popular uprising, a Majdan-2, grows.

The west’s response to this development is to toughen the sanctions against Russia. It is an extremely cynical game, where one willfully allow Ukraine to break down, rather than begin talks with Russia. The judgment of history on this game is going to be tough.” Stefan Hedlund

Last, but not least
Ukraine is Europe