Ukraine SITREP March 10, 10:19 EST (and some replies to comments)

Unrelated to this particular post by Saker, but noteworthy was the memorable summary of the situation by (former Ministry of Foreign Affairs in France) Hubert Védrine : “Sad to say, but we have less and less the means to afford our emotions”
(“C’est triste à dire, mais nous avons de moins en moins les moyens de nos émotions”)

Védrine not only is a realist on geostrategy, a supporter of caution with regard to engagement in NATO and -in dire contrast with our present leadership here in France- a competent man, he also knows about short and precise sentences.

This Ukraine / Crimea crisis is exactly that: a reminder that Western leaderships and peoples not only let themselves be governed by emotions, but that they are arriving at the end of their practical possibility to indulge in such behaviour.

@Saker: What do you think about this interview?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZe9bLq50Js

I think, its still possible that the equipment, training, and possibly even the people were supplied by the Russian side, but that the chain of command ends with Aksyanov, the prime minster of Crimea.

But assuming that these are Russian troops under Russian command, wouldnt this constitute a breach of international law? At least before Yanukovich, the current de jure president of Ukraine, allowed Russian forces to be in Ukraine.

This would be highly problematic since international law is part of the Russian constitution. And it is the duty of a President to uphold the constitution.

I still think that Putin played a similiar game in Cremea as the West did in Kiev, but more professional and way better organised.

I was born in Ukraine,
My children were born in Russia,
My grandchildren were born in US.

Ask me whose lie I rather forgive

What i think, he didnt lie. For the questions – are Russian forces on Crimea – he answered – these are local self defense groups – and thats true. Part of them :)
Kolodej

Thinking about the obvious contradiction between the official denial and the presence of Speznas, I thought that it might be part of the message to the right sector: There is not only the possibility of open russian army, if there starts an open war, but there is also Speznas, if you try to hit russians in South and East on a low scale. What do you think about this idea?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-gold-reserve-put-on-plane-for.html

If true as pointed out in story kiss it good-bye;)

*** Looking things as they are, Crimea is a DONE DEAL:
– There are all reasons to expect the majority to choose joining Russia next Sunday
– It is certain nobody in the West will military oppose, and extremely probable that the Kiev regime won’t try that on its own. If that regime did such a crazy act, the result for Crimea wouldn’t be changed a bit
– Crimea joining Russia will probably not be recognized by many countries, but that lack of recognition won’t have many practical consequences
– From the political and economical relations point of view: speeches, gestures and symbolic “sanctions” will continue for some time more from US / EU, and from Russia also will come speeches, gestures and symbolic counter-sanctions…
“Much ado about nothing”, really

There will be continued debates for years to come: was the action from Russia justified or shameful, worse or better than what one or the other power did in Kosovo, in Iraq, in Northern Cyprus, in Mayotte, in Tibet. Or on Mars. These are theoretical debates only, not to say debates about the sex of angels.
The main fact is that when a great power is motivated enough to impose its will militarily, the other powers won’t do anything to stop that great power. That has been seen in Georgia, in Iraq, in Kosovo and in other places, that is for everybody to see in Crimea, that will be seen elsewhere in the future.

*** What is NOT AT ALL A DONE DEAL, by contrast, therefore… remains dangerous, is what will happen in Ukraine as reduced to the remaining 95% after departure of Crimea.
I see three main questions:

– Future of the February 23rd regime
Will the Kiev regime stabilize itself? If yes, will fascist elements be marginalized with time -and elections- or will they success in maintaining control over the long term? If so, with what consequences?

– Risk of civil war
Will the North-Western / South-Eastern Ukraine degenerate in civil war and bloody divorce? In this case, will that divorce be arbitrated by Russian armed forces only, or will the US & NATO take part in the military arbitration?

– Unity of Ukraine
If civil war is avoided, will Ukraine split peacefully in a civilized divorce? Or will some compromise solution be agreed – which would suppose Ukrainians themselves look for such a solution, with help/motivation from their respective patrons? In this case: will Ukraine be more federalized, or remain as unitary as it is now?

Future of Ukrainian economy is sadly not a question -it will obviously be very difficult, not to say painful.
Nor is the future middle-term alignment of a potential united Ukraine a question -it would be initially aligned on the West of course, but the last ten years have demonstrated that Ukraine is continually zig-zaging between one side and the other, and a united Ukraine even deprived of Crimea would remain enough divided against itself for the zig-zags to continue.

“I still think that Putin played a similiar game in Cremea as the West did in Kiev, but more professional and way better organised.

10 March, 2014 11:33″

May i point out that there is a big difference. The cause and his effect. If USA didnt push out a democratic elected predident by violence and install a puppet government, certainly, Putin would not favored the Crimea secession to protect russian naval base.

My question is why the americans are doing this.

BEIJING, March 10 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama exchanged views in a telephone conversation Monday on bilateral ties and the situation in Ukraine.

“I met with President Obama twice last year and we reached a series of important consensus to push for a new stage for building a new type of major-country relationship between China and the United States,” said President Xi.

China was ready to work with the United States to build the new model of the major-country relationship, respect and accommodate each other’s core interests and major concerns, and enhance dialogue, mutual trust and cooperation, in a bid to achieve a sustainable and healthy development of the China-U.S. relations, Xi said.

“I’m looking forward to the next meeting with Obama in the near future, and I welcome the upcoming visit of Michelle Obama to China,” Xi said.

For his part, Obama said that the U.S.-China relationship had developed positively since he met Xi at his Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands last year.

The United States hoped that the two countries would score new achievements through cooperation on major issues, as this year marked the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, Obama said.

Obama said he was expecting to meet with President Xi soon and his wife was looking forward to her visit to China later this month.

Meanwhile, Obama briefed Xi on the U.S. stance on the Ukrainian situation.

Stressing China’s objective and fair stance on Ukraine, Xi said, given the complexity of the Ukrainian situation, it was very important for all parties concerned to remain calm and exercise restraint in order to avoid the escalation of the crisis.

Urging a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis, Xi said China hoped that all parties concerned would tackle their differences through communication and coordination

China had adopted an open attitude toward any proposals and suggestions that could help ease the tensions in Ukraine and was willing to keep in touch with the United States and other relevant parties on the issue, he added.

President Obama expressed sympathies with the families of those aboard a Malaysian airliner that went missing on Saturday, and he said the United States was ready to work with China over search and rescue efforts.

Xi said China was also deeply concerned about the safety of the passengers and crew members on board the ill-fated aircraft. “I’ve already instructed related departments to carry out search and rescue operations and to make preparations for emergency response and follow-up work,” Xi said, adding that “China will stay in touch with the United States.”

Besides, Obama also mourned the deaths of Chinese civilians slain in a terrorist attack in southwest China’s Kunming city on March 1.

Obama said the United States was against all forms of terrorism and stood ready to cooperate with China in the fight against terrorism.

“Terrorism is the common enemy for human beings,” Xi said, adding that China was prepared to work with the international community, including United States, to battle all forms of terrorism.

‘Igla’ missile systems stolen from Ukraine’s military depots during unrests

http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2250696.html

This appears to be an Azerbaijan news site. Text follows:

Several, maybe even a few dozen ‘Igla’ man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) were stolen from Ukraine’s military depots during the incidents in this country, a senior Ukrainian military man told RIA Novosti.

The lack MANPADS was particularly registered at the 80th separate airmobile regiment, where there were 54 sets of such systems and at the 27th separate mobile brigade, stationed 45 kilometres from Lviv city, where there were 90 MANPADS, according to the information.

The new leadership of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is taking urgent measures to “disguise this difficult situation” with old and experimental MANPADS, according to the source.

‘Igla’ man-portable air defense missile system is an extremely dangerous weapon designed to destroy low-flying air targets, so its dissemination is regulated by several international agreements, in particular by the agreements between Russia and the U.S. Such a weapon getting into the terrorists’ hands is extremely dangerous.

In autumn 2012, it was reported that a large consignment of MANPADS was stolen from a military base in Benghazi in Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was deposed as a result of an armed conflict.

Later, it was reported that the MANPADS could have also got into the hands of rebels fighting in Syria.

BBC
“The attackers marched into the hospital in the regional capital Simferopol, threatening staff and some 30 patients”.
What a propaganda.
Why should ‘they” threaten the patients in the hospital?

So called the Western media [NATO/EU media ] s a plague upon humanity

Ukranian Nazis and the Khatyn Massacre.

I stumbled across this unknown to me massacre from WWII in Belarus, which involved Ukranian Nazi volunteers for the Reich. Ukranians that remember this are rightly fearful the the Kiev mob/Nazis in charge of Western Ukraine. They have a very dark history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khatyn_massacre

On 22 March 1943, a German convoy was attacked by Soviet partisans near Koziri village just 6 km away from Khatyn, resulting in the deaths of four police officers of Schutzmannschaft Batallion 118, which consisted mostly of Ukrainian collaborators, prisoners of war and Soviet army deserters.[1][2] Among the dead was Hauptmann Hans Woellke, the battalion’s commanding officer.[7] Woellke was an Olympic champion in Berlin in 1936 and an acquaintance of Adolf Hitler.

Troops from the Dirlewanger Brigade,[7] a unit mostly composed of criminals recruited for anti-partisan duties (Ukranian nationals), entered the village and drove the inhabitants from their houses and into a shed, which was then covered with straw and set on fire. The trapped people managed to break down the front doors, but in trying to escape, were killed by machine gun fire. 149 people, including 75 children, were killed. The village was then looted and burned to the ground.[8]

Viktor Zhelobkovich, a seven-year-old boy, survived the fire in the shed under the corpse of his mother.[8] Another boy, 12-year-old Anton Baranovsky, was left for dead due to a leg wound.[8] The only adult survivor of the Khatyn massacre, 56-year-old village smith Yuzif Kaminsky, also wounded and burnt, recovered consciousness after the executioners had left. He supposedly found his burned son who later died in his arms. This incident was later artistically honored in the form of a statue at the Khatyn Memorial.[8]

@Anonymous, 10 March, 2014 13:23:
My question is why the americans are doing this.

Because of this:

“Just one month before Nuland’s speech at the National Press Club, Ukraine signed a $10 billion shale gas deal with US energy giant Chevron “that the ex-Soviet nation hopes could end its energy dependence on Russia by 2020.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/06/ukraine-crisis-great-power-oil-gas-rivals-pipelines

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_09/Crimean-leaders-blame-Kiev-for-selling-Ukraine-off-for-IMF-loans-1082/

Also, keep in mind that the US is planning to be a gas-exporter around 2020 (fracking and all that..). But to transport US gas to Europe it has to be liquified (liquified natural gas = LNG). LNG is not competitive with conventional Russian gas which is transported by pipeline. Therefore, a prolonged conflict in the Ukraine, a major gas transit country, will be a big incentive to switch to LNG from the US. That in turn will mean bigger profits for US-companies and a more energy independent East Europe. And this will allow more aggressive behavior towards Russia from US/EU.

Also, have a look at who is sponsering the conference where Nuland says, that the US has invested $5 Billion in Ukraines political change.

http://www.sott.net/article/273602-US-Assistant-Secretary-of-State-Victoria-Nuland-says-Washington-has-spent-5-billion-trying-to-subvert-Ukraine

My thanks to Saker for all of his post today, and especially for the details on why the “mystery men” in Crimea look likely to be Russian Spetsnaz GRU. Accepting or contemplating that Putin and Lavrov and the Spetsnaz GRU are playing a gambit in which they are lying, I see a bold gambit, but I don’t see the upcoming strategy.

I will stay tuned.

Repeat from Nora 4 Mar 2014: http://olivierdemeulenaere.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/ukraine-poutine-jeu-echecs1.jpg

Another leaked call:

Caller One: Hello, it’s me.

Caller Two: What’s up?

Caller One: You know, they started investigation into the Maydan shooting! Someone will pay dearly!

Caller Two: And who would it be?

Caller One: The one who leaked the conversation!

@ Nestorian: Insofar as Putin engages in lies for the sake of geopolitics, he is not of Christ. To the contrary, he is of Satan, who is the “father of lies, and a murderer from the beginning.”

Maybe you should check your facts about Christ?

The Jews never even existed around 0 A.D.

The proof is easy;

There are no ancient Jewish cities in Israel (from around 0 A.D.). Not a single one.

All the ancient cities in Israel are Greek.

There are more than 40 ancient Greek cities/towns in Israel.

All these ruined cities have Greek architecture, the city layout is of Greek style, the inscriptions of these buildings are in (one of the early variants of) Greek writing and the religious buildings are Greek.

If you take a trip to Israel you can still visit the ruins of most of these Greek cities. You cannot visit the ruins of a single ancient Jewish city.

“read the Antiquities by Josephus”

Josephus Flavius, is a man with a Greek name who wrote all his work in Greek.

Josephus Flavius wrote mythology, not fact.

Nice redirection to Josephus Flavius, but how about telling me where the ruined Jewish cities are.

If you don’t believe what I said; Why don’t you name 40 ancient cities/towns in Israel that have ancient Jewish architecture (whatever that might be), where the building inscriptions are in Hebrew, and where the religious buildings are synagogues (by the way, synagogue, is a Greek word which means “meeting place”).

Sergei Lavrov on 8 Mar 2014 beseeched the EU and USA to not regard Russia as a party to the conflict in Ukraine. “We are ready to continue the dialogue on the understanding that the dialogue must be honest, partnership-like, without attempts to show us almost as a party to the conflict,” Lavrov said. http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_08/Russia-calls-not-to-regard-it-as-party-to-Ukrainian-conflict-8387/

Putin on 4 mar 2014 said: “In Crimea… local residents…. set up self-defence committees and took control over all the armed forces…. Thus the tension in Crimea that was linked to the possibility of using our Armed Forces simply died down and there was no need to use them.” REPORTER’S QUESTION, 4 Mar 2014: How do you see the future of Crimea? Do you consider the possibility of it joining Russia? Answer by VLADIMIR PUTIN: “No, we do not…. We will in no way provoke any such decision and will not breed such sentiments.” http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6763

Saker has given us facts that add up to a very good reason to think Lavrov and Putin are lying bigly. On the other hand, I’ve been following Lavrov’s output for several years (primarily on Syria) and I’ve never come across him boldly lying like anything remotely like this before. So, I’ve got cognitive dissonance. If I were to go along with Saker’s point of view, I’d have to think that Lavrov and Putin are not only lying but engaging in a spectacular ruse. It’s very hard for me to believe it.

@Ignorant Dickhead:If you don’t believe what I said;

This was your last post in bold letters. Next one goes to trash. You have been warned.

The Saker

parviziyi

You are being naive. Or disingenuous. Israel/USA/EU have essentially declared war on Russia. There is no reason for the Russians to give these ziofascists any information at all. What little info the Russians are putting out about their own side, it is for their allies, and those others who are not necessarily thrilled with being tools of ziofascists. So they can act accordingly with minimum diplomatic soap opera.

You know, “anything you say can and will be used against you.”

Chess is actually a very simple game, it’s the human element of the players that makes it seem complicated. The Russians learned from their experience in 2008 about how the west operates. Best to say as little as possible, keep the official diplomatic and moral upper hand, and crack zionazi heads as needed, when needed.

вот так

On the question of lying, RIA Novosti, in agreement with Saker, is straight-up saying the Russian government is lying. 10 Mar 2014 from RIA Novosti: “Large quantities of heavily armed Russian troops accompanied by armored personnel carriers, military jeeps and other vehicles have entered Crimea in recent weeks. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied the presence of Russian military in the region and maintains that the armed men are members of local self defense organizations.” http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140310/188282411/Preparations-for-Joining-Russia-Already-Underway–Aksyonov.html

And RIA Novosti on 8 Mar 2014: “Russia has staunchly denied sending any troops to Crimea, calling the invading units “local militias” despite the fact that they speak Russian, use Russian military equipment and license plates and have repeatedly admitted their Russian provenance on camera.” http://en.ria.ru/world/20140308/188217658/Russian-FM-Ukraine-Controlled-by-Ultranationalists.html

I’ve concluded at this stage that Putin and Lavrov have been lying. I haven’t yet learned why they’re lying. I’m a slow learner.

in regards to the lying, it creates distance as if to say ‘yes, they are our people, but not really controlled by us’, so when it comes to negotiating, Lavrov can make it look like on paper and in the history books that Crimea made its own decisions with the usual ‘right to self determination’ stuff the other western leaders harp on about all the time.

have you noticed how the Crimean self defense units are now starting to wear their own Crimean insignia

Well, thanks. I’ll have to look for it. I need proof. I’m not talking about the coup in the streets, but specifically that the parliament voting took place in front of people with guns. I’ve read through quite a few of your posts but have had some days when I could not spend time on the internet.