[Quick note: I want to begin this SITREP with a correction to something which I mentioned in the last SITREP abouy General Bezler: even though his signature did appear to figure on the infamous statement of the four commanders declaring their loyalty to “General” Korsun, the information that he had been arrested is, according so sources qualified as “solid” by Colonel Cassad, not true. Since I have no reason to doubt Cassad’s sources, I assume that this is true. I have no idea why/how Bezler’s signature was found on this document, maybe it was a fake? Either way, Bezler even made a short video today making fun of Ukie not-so-special forces. In contrast, Korsun’s arrest is apparently confirmed. Now let’s turn to the SITREP proper – The Saker]
War?
The big event of the week was, I think, Poroshenko’s speech to what I call the Imperial Senate (aka Joint Session of Congress). I have made the full transcript available here and here. I don’t think that it is worth carefully parsing this text, so I will just mention the few elements which are absolutely obvious to me:
1) This text was written by a US Neocon. It even included such typical US-propaganda gimmicks as the “personal story” to give a human touch and moment carefully crafted to generate applause. So no only what the author of this rant American, but he/she was for sure a diehard Neocon.
2) This text was a lame attempt at copying Churchill’s “Iron Curtain” speech, except that Poroshenko is no Churchill, Putin no Stalin and Novorussia no Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the message was clear: Russia represents a planetary threat to freedom, democracy, liberty, human right, free speech, etc. In fact, according to Poroshenko the choice is not between two civilizations but between civilization and barbaric darkness.
3) The US deep state is by now clearly aware of the immense challenge presented to it by Putin’s “Eurasian Sovereignist” Russia and the movement it leads (BRICS+SCO+etc.). The fact that it has to use such absolutely over the top rhetoric is a clear sign of fear and the Neocons are now freaking out. The danger for them is becoming very real (more about that below).
4) More than anything else, this speech proved to me that the only viable goal for Russia is regime change in Kiev. This is a message I will hammer in over and over again – regime change in Kiev is a vital, arguable existential, priority for Russia.
5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie “nationalists” are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the “Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!” slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.
The entire speech had a Disney-like feel to it: on one side, the forces of Light, lead by the USA in white shining armor and on the other, the forces of Darkness, lead by Russia crawling out of the Asian steppes like Lovecraft’s Chtuhlu. Infantile to the extreme, the purpose of the speech was to induce a planetary war against Russia and her allies or, at the very least, to contain that 21st century Mordor. Poroshenko went as far as referring to now completely disproved lies (such as Russia invading Georgia in 2008) and hinting that Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. could/would be next. Clearly the main can lie with an ease which any used car salesman would envy.
Then there is the issue of the standing ovations. Less than Obama and less than Netanyahu, but still a lot (12 I think). The Imperial Senators appeared to stand longer and clap harder each time Poroshenko drifted off into some kind of crazy nonsense. A scary sight, really.
Now we all know who runs the US Congress (AIPAC) so what this is, really, is a declaration of war by AIPAC and the Zionist faction of the AngloZionist Empire. The Anglos are far less enthusiastic as shown by Obama’s refusal to send weapons to the Ukies. Just like in 2008 and that other lunatic – Saakashvili – I get the feeling that there might be a lot of behind the scenes Neocon “parallel diplomacy” going on. If not, why would Obama’s bosses tell Poroshenko to ask for weapons they don’t want to give him in the first place? My guess is that there is a lot of reluctance in the Pentagon and possibly in the intelligence community to get the USA fully committed behind a regime which might not be around in a few months.
Whatever may be the case, Poroshenko’s speech felt like an infantile but nasty declaration of war. Clearly, there are those who are very concerned that peace might break out
Peace?
Version 1:
On the “peace front” a number of interesting things happened. First, on September 14th sixteen business representatives from the USA, Russia, Germany and the Ukraine met for a private meeting with the Chairmen of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab. In attendance were some very big player including the hyper-notorious Anatolii Chubais (for a complete list or participants, see here). They adopted the following document:
(You can also download the document from here.) The publication of this document resulted in something as predictable as it was amazing. The “Putin is selling out Novorussia” choir immediately denounced this document as a total betrayal of Novorussia and a victory for the oligarchs. I said that this was a predictable reaction because by now it is pretty clear that these folks will denounce any and all negotiated documents (Agreement, Memoranda, Treaty or any other type) as a “sellout of Novorussia”, “victory for the oligarchs” and “capitulation by Putin”. Still, what was absolutely amazing to me that apparently they seem to notice #6:
Guarantee the security and sovereignty of Ukraine by the international community. Recognize the supremacy of international law above national interests. Recognize the right of self-determination but encourage to consider a policy of military non-alignment for Ukraine, comparable to the status of other European countries (i.e. Finland, Sweden, Switzerland). Amazingly, but the nay-sayers managed to completely miss the fact that 1) Ukie laws which contravene the EU Convention on Human Rights (including Protocol 12 on minority rights) and the UN Charter (whose Article 1 and others specifically uphold the right of self-determination) could be overruled 2) that the Ukies were told to recognize the right of self-determination (not just federation, but open-ended self determination) and 3) that the Ukies were told that they will have to remain neutral and non-aligned.
And that, coming form Chubais & Co!
Now, I understand that the Ukies broke every single document they signed so far, and this one will be no exception. But what is crucial here is that the message from “top finance” is not Poroshenko’s hysterical call to arms before the Imperial Senate, but “no crazy laws, self-determination, no NATO“. This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. Conversely, this WEF Initiative is a nightmare come true for the Neocons as it finalizes, if it is applied of course, the non-NATO status for the Ukraine.
True, this document speaks of a unitary Ukrainian state (apparently unless and until the right of self-determination trumps that) and it is full with well-meaning generalities. But point #6 is absolutely amazing coming, as it does, from the trans-national plutocrats which signed it. And yes, will Chubais’ friend recommend an non-block status for the Ukraine, the Ukie Rada is abrogating its nonaligned while Timoshenko demands and entry into NATO.
Finally, keep in mind that this is an “initiative” which does not commit the Ukraine or Russia to anything. At most, this is a declaration of desirable principles, a basis for negotiation if you want.
Version 2:
The other big event of the week is signing of the Minsk Memorandum. Here is the full text:
Unlike the vague and, frankly, un-implementable Minsk cease-fire agreement, this Memorandum provides some perfect reasonable standards by which to measure compliance by both parties. Some points are politically correct nonsense (#9) but most of this text can be summarized as following: a “freezing” of the conflict along the line of contact. Is that good or bad?
Depends whom you ask.
Strelkov immediately denounced that Memorandum in the strongest possible terms. According to Strelkov, this is a victory for the “betrayal” camp lead by Surkov who has deceived Putin and is now pushing him into a Milosevic-type of scenario. In contrast, Zakharchenko, obviously, full backs the plan. So let’s look a bit closer to this Memorandum.
For one thing, and that is important, it contains exactly zero political provisions. None. So the first rather obvious point that I would like to make is that this plan is very limited in scope: all it does is provide the basis for a mechanism to achieve a more or less verifiable ceasefire. Period. So if the Minks Ceasefire Agreement was list of vague and unenforceable (I would even argue undefined) general political statements, this document is the extreme opposite: a purely technical tool which really codifies the current situation on the ground.
So what is the political context in which this ceasefire will have to be observed? What is the point of the ceasefire?
Well, again, that depends whom you ask.
According to Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials it is to give time to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) to regroup, reorganize and prepare for a counter-attack. Strelkov would agree. Zakharchenko and Lavrov disagree. While they observe and denounce the Ukie preparations for a possible (likely? inevitable?) counter-attack, their official position is that the Agreement and the Memorandum are now binding documents useful in preparation for a final status negotiations. At this point Zakharchanko speaks of a completely independent Ukraine and Lavrov of a neutral Ukraine respectful of all its citizens.
I suggest we take it step by step.
First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia’s side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough. Basically, we wondered if Novorussia could stay alive long enough for Banderastan to collapse, or whether the only way to save Novorussia from a Nazi takeover was an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass. Some of us even spoke of weeks.
Now, several months later, we see that not only did Novorussia not collapse under a Nazi takeover, but that the Novorussian Armed Forces gave a magnificent thrashing to the JRF and instead of getting encircled in Donetsk and Lugkans, the NAF pushed the JRF all the way out to Mariupol. At the very least, this proves that
1) Those who said that a Russian military intervention was the only way to save Novorussia were wrong: Novorussia survived.
2) Those who said that there was no Russian covert aid or that this aid was insufficient were wrong again: Voentorg is thriving (named after a military store, “voentorg”, which literally means “military trade”, here refers to the Russian covert aid to Novorussia)
Furthermore, at the time everybody agreed that things could only get worse for Banderastan, especially when the Fall and Winter would begin. As far as I know, there is still nobody predicting a miraculous turn-around in the Ukie economy so we can assume that all that Banderastan did was get so much closer to the inevitable economic and social cliff. And, indeed, the cracks are visible all over, AngloZionist aid or not.
I think that basic logic tells us that time is still on Russia’s side and that the Ceasefire Agreement, this time supported by a Memorandum, solves the time problem for Novorussia: with aid from Russia freely flowing in (both over humanitarian aid and covert, “voentorg”, aid) Novorussia can now sit tight and wait. The cold season will not only exacerbate the economic-social tensions in Banderastan, it will also make offensive operations much harder.
What about the opportunity costs?
In economics there the notion of “opportunity costs”. These are the costs you do not incur directly (you don’t have to pay anything), but these are the “costs” resulting from missed opportunities. Income you could have made, but did not.
Is Novorussia incurring such opportunity costs as the result of this peace?
That depends on your hypothesis.
There are those who believe that the NAF could if not make it to Kiev, then at least liberate Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and other cities. I agree that Mariupol was about to fall, but only at great risk of envelopment from the north. As for other cities, I personally don’t believe that is true. Even Slaviansk is quite out of reach, at least for the time being. Some say that a collapse of the JRF would have left the road open to Kiev. While true in one sense (some units might have used to panic to make it that far), this is a typically civilian idea of warfare. “Getting there” can be easy, of course, but it’s *staying* there typically turns into a nightmare. I do not believe that by early September the NAF had the capabilities to breakout much beyond their current areas of deployment and to successfully liberate much more territory.
Furthermore, I do not believe that a purely military solution is achievable, especially not one which has Novorussians “liberating” central or, even less so, western Ukraine. I know that my hatemail will go through the roof, but I will say that I think that freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest “distraction” in internal Ukie politics: the so-called “Russian invasion”.
There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.
The people of Donetsk and Lugansk have shown that they, like the folks of Crimea or South Ossetia, are truly deserving of Russian help, even if that means that Russian young men should die, as happened in South Ossetia. And I would note here that South Ossetian man are now fighting as volunteers for Novorussia, so the Ossetians have proven beyond any doubt that they were fighting for.
But the folks in the rest of (historical) Novorussia?
Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I. What about the partisans around Zaporozhie or Chernigov? Same thing. Well, in reality, this is not quite true and not really fair. First, the Nazis are using terror to subdue the locals in these cities and, second, there have been a few actions here and there. But if Strelkov was speaking the truth when he said that most young men in Donetsk and Luganks were quite happy to sip beer and watch the events on their idiot-boxes, this is even much more true of the rest of the Ukraine. Even senior NAF commander admitted that their strength was in the fact that the NAF were liberators, but that the further they would go west, the more they would be seen not as liberators but as occupiers (and, believe me, the propaganda on Ukie TV is nothing short of unimaginable: according the Ukie officials who speak on Ukie TV on a daily basis, Russia is already occupying the Ukraine with, last time I heard, 19 battalion tactical groups!)
Every one is free to have his/her opinion and I cannot prove that I am right simply because hypotheticals are, by definition, unprovable. But my personal belief is that freezing the line of contact on the 19th is reasonable and that the ceasefire benefits everybody more than the regime in Kiev (which is why I expect it to be broken even more than it already is). Furthermore, I submit that these are the fundamental objectives of the key parties to this civil war:
1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)
The current situation is favorable for #1 and #2.
What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?
For all my sympathy and admiration for Strelkov, I think that he is plain wrong.
For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally). Furthermore, Milosevic also betrayed the Croatian Serbs and he did not provide support from Bosnia were the Federal Army had several brigades (who later also dumped the Bosnian Serbs). Crimea is protected by the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet and by the most powerful single landforce in Eurasia. Unlike the Serbian Krajinas, Crimea is ideal to defend (as history shows). The notion of the Ukies coming from the land, sea or air to occupy Crimea is ludicrous to the extreme. A JRF which got comprehensively defeated by the NAF cannot take on the Russian military. As for the USN, it can show the flag all over the Black Sea, but every USN officer knows that the Black Sea is one big trap from which you don’t want to fight Russia.
What about Novorussia then? Could the JRF in theory rearm and successfully attack Donetsk and Lugansk? In theory yes, but in practice as long as Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will never allow the Ukie to take over these two republics. If they tried, the “voentorg” (which, by the way, has not been stopped by the Agreement or Memorandum) will go through the roof and “volunteers” from Russia would come streaming in. And yes, if left no other choice, and facing a “do it or lose it” situation, the Kremlin will order the Russian military to initiate what will, no doubt, be presented as a “temporary and limited peace-enforcement operation to restore the mutually agree upon line of demarcation of September 19th, 2014” or some equally inane formula which, in practical terms, will simply mean “you got 48 hours to smash the Ukie forces“. It will probably take less than 24. Then the Russians will go right back across the border and ask that the OSCE attest to that withdrawal. The West will choke with rage, but it shall be too late. Just like Russia basically disarmed Saakashvili in 3 days of combat, Russia can, and will, disarm Poroshenko, Iarosh, Timoshenko or any other Ukie freak who will try to capture Donetsk or Lugansk.
So is there a conspiracy? A behind-the-scenes secret deal?
Probably not. But I bet you that there is a mutual understanding. The US tells Russia “don’t you dare take Kiev” and Russia replies “don’t you dare take the Donetsk and Luganks Republics”. Neither side commits to anything, but it “just so happens” that neither dare is called. Having said that, both sides also see that short of these red lines the rest is fair game. Hence, the US props up Kiev and Russia props up Novorussia. Sure, the Neocons in the USA are absolutely incensed, and the “hurray-patriots” (there is such a Russian term) in Russia are also furious. The armchair generals on both sides (Liashko, Dugin) offer many “simple” plans on how they would win it all if they were in the White House or the Kremlin. In the meantime, the military commanders in the Pentagon and in the Russian General Staff quietly try to make sure that this war stays local and does not force the “Big Guys” into a real world war.
The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia’s overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire. These guys, Neocons or old Anglo Imperialists, want to play a game of chicken with Russia and they are convincing themselves that Russia must, and will, blink at the last second and back down. The Russian response is very complex one: to give the appearance of backing down without really giving up anything. Like when the Russians had to “cave in” to US threats and disarm Syria form its chemical arsenals. At the time, the Putin is selling out Syria” choir immediately denounced this document as a a betrayal and as a proof that Putin and Obama are, in reality, working hand in hand. Some even continue to clamor today that “if Assad had chemical weapons” the US would never dare to attack him (forgetting that Saddam also had chemical weapons and that this did not help him at all). Now, in hindsight, we know that these nay-sayers (I am being nice and polite here) were wrong, 100% wrong, but at the time their laments and outraged denunciations sounded credible.
To be truly honest, I can understand their feelings. I even wrote on this blog that my biggest fear is that Putin would turn out to be yet another Milosevic. In fact, I had predicted that the Russians would intervene and I was quite surprised and, frankly, appalled when they did not. That was when Donetsk and Lugansk were almost surrounded and their fall looked likely. My brain told met that this would not happen, but I had a knot in my stomach and I could barely think of anything at all besides the tragic events in Novorussia. Yet, this time again, just as with Syria, Putin did “deliver”: Russia’s covert aid turned the tide and what looked like an imminent collapse of all of Novorussia (especially after the retreat of Strelkov from Slaviansk!) turned into a unbelievable defeat for the Ukie forces. Again, those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don’t understand warfare, sorry. Russia’s covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible and if Putin wanted to “sell out” Novorussia all he had to do is nothing at all. That would have done the trick just fine. Instead Russia embarked on a remarkable and highly effective to achieve two apparently mutually exclusive results: to deny the AngloZionists the war they so badly wanted and to deny the Ukies the victory they so badly wanted.
No wonder they so passionately hate Putin and Russia :-)
So where do we go from here?
As usual, I will simply admit that I don’t know (which is not bad, considering that many folks seem not to even know where we currently are). There are too many variables. Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy. So far, on the US side, it look like the Pentagon is successful in preventing the Neocons from seriously committing the US behind Poroshenko. Speaking of Poroshenko, he is much safer in the US than at home. For him, things are about to get much tougher and much uglier. Right now, literally anything can happen in Banderastan, I cannot call that one at all.
Assuming the Ukies don’t launch a Fall or Winter offensive (how crazy would that be?! but then they are pretty crazy…), Novorussia will be fine, courtesy of a strong NAF and plenty of Russian aid. Hopefully, the crazy infighting amongst the Novorussian elites will eventually stop. In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin’s feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Integrationists. Crimea’s future looks as bright as can be.
Which leaves Russia under sanctions. Short term – the sanctions are definitely going to hurt Russia. Mid-term, Russia will do just fine as long as these sanctions are used as an opportunity to finally embark on some much needed reforms. There is no risk of a “nationalist Maidan against Putin” (there never was), but the fight against the oligarchs will continue (not only were there rumors, later denied, that Evtushekov had been free, but so far the investigation of the corruption scandal under Serdiukov and his mistress Evgenia Vassilievna has gone nowhere). There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.
That’s it for today folks, I hope that this was useful. Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages long, though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).
Kind regards to all and have a wonderful week-end!
The Saker
PS: a friend just emailed me to let me know that Russia, China plan sign new 30 year gas deal via 2nd route! So much for the “isolation” of Russia :-)
“For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally).”
I know this is off-topic, but since you know so much (have insider info on the UN in BiH and Croatia), I’m wondering if you know anything about UN soldiers burying Serbian civilians while the war was happening.
See on a Balkan’s forum, years ago, a half-Serb half-Croat living in Canada, told of a friend, a Canadian-Croat who was very nationalistic, but told him (the 1/2-1/2 guy) how he had tears streaming down his eyes as he buried Serbian civilians, including children, while he was serving in Bosnia with the UN (as a Canadian soldier). At least, if memory serves, he was referring to something while the war was still going on.
So was the UN involved in burying bodies DURING the wars? Did you get to read any information on that?
Also, if the UN was burying people during the war, did they burying them in marked graves or mass graves?
(I am one who can never get enough information on the Balkan’s wars, so if you ever write a long post on it or a future book which has a lot of revelations and details I will read it. You can’t let the truth be buried!)
War:
Neither the NAF nor the UA can pull off a winter war relying on heavy armor without massive RF/NATO support. Guerilla resistance will be successful to the extent local populations support Novorossiya. So territory could get extended as Kiev falls apart economically and Novorossiya survives until spring.
Peace:
It would be cool if Ukraine would suddenly become a non-aligned, demilitarized, federalized state with a special east/west trade regime – i.e., the Russian solution from the beginning. But to the extent the Western powers continue their present line, that won’t happen. On the other hand, equal to that extent, RF support for Novorossiya will increase.
Novorossiya has to commit to a political/economic ideal, i.e., state capitalism/socialism to build the state, to provide a real alternative to neoliberal fascist Ukraine.
Without the commitment to an economic model of the future, the Donbass will be part of a federalized Ukraine at best, a semi-Transistria at worst. And that’s really not what it’s all about.
The way I see it:
1) in the beginning Ukraine was EU most interest with letting US in as a back up
Because it weakens Russia that has such a strong gas control
2) Sanctions don’t help to put Russia in place
3) Ukraine is showing it’s ugly side
4) It’s economically more appealing to let Novorossiya exist at some point and come back slowly with Russia in some agreement
5) That will put Ukraine on its knees and Ukraine has to comply
It’s a humble spot through peaceful solution
But again who is humble in Ukraine?
That’s why Poroshenko is after US
EU had enough of it while USA just started
It all depends on Ukraine which way to go
But I am more with Strelkov here that they won’t stop
Ukiès are able to hate Russians for decades why they will stop now and go for peace when they are in a middle of the war? This is their chance to let this hate blossom
My point is: even peace is good and kind of manageable, there is no will in Ukraine government and most of the population to stop war. They will take their chance with US weapons
Dmitry Medvedev in Sochi: The West is trying to “a New World Order based on a hard-edged standoff [with Russia]” or on the premise that, in this New World Order, Russia either does not exist or should not exist.http://government.ru/en/news/14835/
Western sanctions to last long, but no new ones expected.
SOCHI, September 20. /ITAR-TASS/. Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said on Saturday that Western sanctions would last long but there would most likely be no new ones.
“I think there will most likely be no new sanctions, but the sanctions that have already been imposed will last long. Regardless of the situation in Ukraine and even if all of the Minsk agreements [on peaceful settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine] are implemented, the sanctions will not be lifted,” he said at the Sochi International Investment Forum.
In his opinion, Russia will have to live under sanctions for a long time even though his ministry’s forecast envisions their possible lifting. “But I think this won’t happen,” Ulyukayev said.
The minister said the negative effect from the sanctions would make itself felt later. “It seems that it will occur in 2016-2017, not in 2014-2015,” he said.
“We will have to live with this for a long time and we have to be prepared to respond,” the minister said.
But he said Russia should respond not with counter-sanctions, “which is counterproductive, but by supporting the companies affected by the sanctions”.
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/750532
Saker wonderful analysis.
I have to be careful in praise as I am ignorant of any direct knowledge of the Ukraine, but your analysis is consistent internally and with what little I know, plus the documents really cement things together.
The Ukrainian strategy has long been on the boards, but the timetable was dictated by a deal that was due to be signed between Russia and Royal Dutch Shell in April Last, and the launch of the point Russo-Sino Gas and currency deals duly signed off in May but much accelerated in because of the Ukraine.
The Ukraine incident was meant to block EU gas in such a way that it would remain in the p[rto-dollar orbit (you can see how the Netherlands was scolded for even allowing such a deal to be considered — re the MH17 incident, Malaysia was also a sticking point in the Asian Pivot).
The thing is that Europe is on the edge of a depression right now, and the IMF is sniffing about for bargain loans (cheap loans at the expense of future economic growth). Russian trade sanctions, energy shortages and imposed military expenses do not bode well for the immediate period (the next few years).
Europe is faced with third-worldism (Greece is a an example) It has to move out of the Atlantic bind, it is just a matter of how much damage is sustained until “when”.
European leadership has failed so many ways this last decade, what was simply lackluster is now gross incompetence garnished with suicidal tendencies.
The announcement that Lithuania, Poland and the Ukraine are forming their own defence pact, does indicate that NATO is being more restrained than is otherwise apparent.
My hope that is buried well behind the scenes Europe is re-awaking slowly from its stupor, I have no evidence for this however.
Saker
If you look at the three large elements of your SitRep, the World Economic Forum paper, the Minsk agreement #2, and Ceasefire with Russian re-supply for Novorossiya, it is clear that Putin has complete control of the situation politically, militarily and diplomatically.
This is what he wants for now. This is what he needs for now. And all future moves are still open to destroy any 2015 re-igniting of the threat to Russia. He controls the entire board game.
It leaves Ukraine powerless in the world. It leaves Ukraine dependent on some help from Russia and China down the line. It basically de-fangs the Ukie military. People want gas and food not another round of war and more death and defeat.
Eventually, slowly, the rest of Novorossiya will come to Russia. This will be in a few years.
Ukraine will be a case study in national economic and geo-political suicide. Everything is against them. Demographics, infrastructure, debt, national character, crime, degeneracy and drugs.
@Anonymous:I’m wondering if you know anything about UN soldiers burying Serbian civilians while the war was happening.
No, sorry. Keep in mind that I was not inside Croatia or Bosnia during that war, but sitting in the UN working for a think tank. I was getting the daily UNPROFOR intelligence reports and I also developed some personal contacts inside UNPROFOR who, for example, told me how an UNPOFOR battalion commanders was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way. But that was in a specific area. Other areas I not special info about at all. What I am trying to say is that I never had a full image and that there could have been A LOT of stuff which happened that I would not have known about. So please don’t take my “no” as a sign that it did not happen. All I am saying is that I never heard about this specific thing.
Kind regards,
The Saker
UN: Donetsk, Luhansk infrastructure damaged for $440 mln.
Damage which shelling and bombings caused to the infrastructure of south-eastern Ukrainian breakaway cities of Donetsk and Luhansk is estimated at $440 million, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in a report.
For the time of the conflict at least 1,969 facilities, including 659 public buildings, 1,230 private houses and 178 offices were damaged. Damage is estimated at $440 million, the document runs.
More than 70% of enterprises were shut down in the city of Donetsk and restoration of their operation was aggravated with serious difficulties, the UN agency said. For instance, several coalmines were flooded and need repair now, the agency of the global organisation said in the report.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/750545
Saker,
Thank you for the analysis. It gives me something to chew on.
My impression is that your assumption that the Minsk II document is meaningful might be wrong.
I’m off the opinion that the Minsk II document will be as meaningless as the Minsk I document was. The war will simply go on without any change visible.
Why I so think so is because it says that the line of contact shall be frozen and heavy weapons shall be pulled back, but Minsk II fails to define the basics for this.
Two questions:
1. Where is the line of contact? In reality there are lot’s of combat groups mixed in the same territory. So what does it mean to pull back weapons 15 km behind the line of contact when there is no line of contact defined? There is hardly any obligation for noone to do something as far as there is no line of contact defined.
2. An obligation to pull back heavy weapons reads nice. But lot’s of these heavy Ukie weapons are located in boilers where they can’t move them away. As long as there is no procedure defined for what to do with boilers I believe it’s quite likely that fighting will just continue there. I don’t think any NAF commander will want to allow Ukie forces held in boilers to regroup outside the boilers again. I don’t think the Ukies will be allowed to withdraw from boilers with their heavy weapons.
However I might be wrong. I read today that all Ukie forces left Zhdanovka. Where to seems not be known. If that is the case Minsk II maybe really a pretext for an agreed withdrawal of Ukie forces from hot spots deep in Novorossiya. Maybe the boilers aren’t so airtight yet after all.
Time will tell. But if I were to bet, I’ld bet my money on that Minsk II is only PR welcome to all sides, it will change nothing and the war will simply continue as before.
It is unlikely that the Junta in Kiev will inveigle Ukraine into NATO officially, in the foreseeable future.
The Ukrainian civil war drama that intensified over the past ten months has somewhat served its purpose: provoke and kick-start hostilities between Europe and Russia, whilst enabling the western media to shepherd what’s left of the attentive audience towards Russophobia.
As the Ukrainian civil war drama becomes surplus to media requirements, it will probably subside, albeit that there are a number of “Western Ukrainians” that are rapidly becoming more of a concern to the Ukrainian authorities than Novorossiya.
The Ukrainian ruling class – profoundly greedy, incompetent, naïve, treacherous, simplistic and hopelessly over-privileged – prefers to hype scapegoats and canards instead of taking any steps whatsoever to truly protect or honor Ukraine in her time of need.
Thank you Saker.
I started reading your site a couple of months ago and I found it always very instructive. I really appreciated this sitrep and I hope everything will turn positively for Novorossiya and the places that once belonged to the Kievan Rus.
Concerning foreign occupation, my home country (Italy) is full of USA and NATO military bases and installations and in Sardinia there are often training from American, Nato and Israeli Air Forces.
http://www.salon.com/2013/10/03/the_pentagon_is_turning_italy_into_a_military_base/
I know it is off topic, but, do you think Italy will ever become a sovereign state again and finally get rid of atlantic influence? if you prefer I can wrote it again in an open topic
Dear Saker,
Thank you dearly for this report.
Indeed, what one could frame the oligarchs as being the core of the 5th column, the signature of Chubais speaks volumes on this might not being homogeneous.
Minsk v1.0 already established a status for NR as parties of the conflict opening the way for statehood. There is a game played on keeping ukr as a single entity which de facto allows NR to secede. Now, there were reports that minsk2.0
Involved elections in NR as part of Ukr. No sign of this and unless it would be secret, there is no compromise of NF’s future.
In any case, the missile attack on Donetsk carries the obvious message, “we give a damn for Kuchma’s signature, it is not ours (Lyashko, etc. )
surely the CP in Kharkiv, Odessa and elsewhere, is getting ready for action.
All in all, the AZs plan of destroying NR has failed, the msm cannot conceal altogether the tragic events, and Winter may come to be the next ruler .
Spring will bring a new field.
Thanks again
Kind regards
Patagonian
Saker said “The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia’s overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire.”
I am completely convinced that this is in fact the case. However, I do not think that this portends a cold war v2 or a game of chicken. This is not a drill, but rather the beginning stages of a nuclear endgame that’s playing out. The very existence of the Empire is at stake. When it becomes existential, the moves dramatically intensify, escalate, and appear recklessly bold. I submit that this is what we’re disbelievingly witnessing. Unfortunately, Deep State Empire is managed by a controlling faction of psychopaths that are now in ‘do or die’ mode and hell- bent on ensuring that the Empire prevails at all costs. It’s basically a variant of the ‘Samson Option’ we are all too familiar with.
Clever piece if you ask me:
“View from Russia: Could Putin be in Obama’s ‘broad coalition’ against ISIS?
…
Sometimes geography gets in the way of power politics. Just when you thought that Ukraine was miles away from Syria, bang — you find out that they’re actually bordering each other.
…”
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/18/opinion/isis-obama-putin-nekrassov/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
Nice analysis, Saker, and I agree to most of it. One thing where I disagree, is the role of “Zionists”.
I am not sure to which extent AIPAC controls Congress and Senate, sure there is a lot of influence. But, AIPAC is not really “Zionism”, much less US Jewry. It is a mad coalition of Likudniks, pro-Israeli right-wingers, and fundamentalist Protestants, who hate Jews, but believe that in the bible was written that once the Jews fully reign the Middle East, Apocalypse will begin and all infidels – of course the Jews as well – will be wiped.
Israel’s policy is ways more complex. Since the days of the ma Saakashwili’s (Germans like to call him Sackarschwilly, meaning sthg like scrotum-arse-willy) attack on south Ossetia, Israel has held fairly much distance from imperial politics concerning Russia. Israel opposes the sanctions, makes food, arms, and technology deals with Russia.
There is much self-interest in that policy: Israel does not want Russia on the anti-Israel side, wants to have a say in which weapons are shipped to the Middle East. Further on, Israel does not want to alienate Russian Jews, who play a constructive role in Russian society and have many ties to Russian emigrants to Israel, and therefore some leverage (note that there are virtually no US Jews living in Israel).
And AIPAC cannot defy Israel.
Therefore, I don’t buy the AIPAC version, and neither the definition of the AngloZionist Empire. But that is an even longer discussion.
best regards and thanks for your good work.
Thanks for the informations. We in western Europe dont get too much information but only propaganda from the controlled MSM.
The one question I have is how can there be a ceasefire or any thought of a victory with Donetsk airport still held by the Ukraine?
Good analysis Saker, however a point everyone is missing is the catastrophic condition of the imperial economy, debt growing by 2 billion a day and accelerating due to its latest ISIS adventure but even more alarming is the imminent bursting of the fracking bubble. Fracking companies have never made money, just amassing mountains of debt as they drill ever more wells of dubious production. The ZIRP policy has allowed this to happen but it will end soon and then then its all over for the US economy and hegemony. Novorussia need only be patient.
Saker,
I follow your line of reasoning very closely and agree with the general line of your analysis.But ,you say that Russia does want to avoid a Cold War v2 and in that I disagree with you in so much as the world is already living a (very) tragic new Cold War.The arc of instability is spreading like fire on the planet.The Anglozionists are everywhere in confrontation against Russia,China, the Axis of Resistance and free Latin American countries.In europe(Ukraine), Asia,practically the whole of the arab world and that is a very large landmass,Africa and as mentioned south american countries.It is clear that Russia did not provoke this chain of violent reactions.But it is here and that is worsening thanks to imperial hubris.I agree with your “red line”observed also in Syria very clearly though how long ROW will be able to contain the Anglozionists?Have a closer look at what will happen with the two buffer zones under creation in the South of Syria(Quneitra) and the north of Syria.
I clearly see all this as an expression of terrible weakness of a dying empire but who can guarantee that the red line will not be crossed?In the direct neighborhood of Russia or elsewhere? To respect the balance of power you need to be a/strong,b/wise ,two qualities that the Anglozionists do not possess,financially,economically,culturally and military.They lack a vision,other than the one to be predatory as they have shown these last 600 years.
BCH
Poroshenko’s visit was a big fail was it not
1. No NATO agreement
2. EU trade pushed back to 2016
3. 1.2 Bill in “debt guarantees” no pallets of cash to put in the kleptocrats pockets
He should stay away from Kiev if he values his health.
extraordinary review of the current situation in novorussia and of the oligarch’s ‘triumphant’
appearance in the den of the Zionist puppets. pls keep up the good work…
Anonymous said…
…the imminent bursting of the fracking bubble. .. then its all over for the US economy and hegemony. Novorussia need only be patient.
“Anonymous” please forgive the distortion of the quoted post (it was not reducing everything to the collapse of fracking — that is me).
The fracking bubble is huge, and has been fake from day one (wildly overestimated productivity on even the best sites and a lot of money put into very peripheral sites — it has been a speculators dream).
This bubble popping would easily bring down the rest, and surely some in Europe will want to move the Euro away from the disaster and that means not just recovering markets, but establishing new ones.
PS once the petrodollar goes so do the Suadis and the rest; ISIS follows (reduced to bands of bandits without this support).
I pray for this as soon as possible.
Anonymous said…
…the imminent bursting of the fracking bubble. .. then its all over for the US economy and hegemony. Novorussia need only be patient.
“Anonymous” please forgive the distortion of the quoted post (it was not reducing everything to the collapse of fracking — that is me).
The fracking bubble is huge, and has been fake from day one (wildly overestimated productivity on even the best sites and a lot of money put into very peripheral sites — it has been a speculators dream).
This bubble popping would easily bring down the rest, and surely some in Europe will want to move the Euro away from the disaster and that means not just recovering markets, but establishing new ones.
PS once the petrodollar goes so do the Suadis and the rest; ISIS follows (reduced to bands of bandits without this support).
I pray for this as soon as possible.
BTW says:
Thanks for this excellent post, Saker!
I hate to keep harping on past decisions but, since the future is born in the past – at least to some extent, I take the liberty of doing so. I must confess to being one of those deluded souls who believed, and to some extent still do, that had Putin: (a) not recognized the illegal puppet Government in Kiev; (b) absorbed S.E Ukraine into Russia; and (c) taken a hard and principle-based stance that illegal governments cannot be recognized;
Russia would: (a) today be no worse off in international diplomacy, perhaps better; (b)today be in much the same position to initiate regime change in Kiev; and (c) have mitigated the risks, known and unknown, of a festering wound lingering next door by shifting the wound several hundred miles westwards.
Today I have a better understanding of the dynamics of Russian politics, of the complexities of Ukraine, including S.E. regions. After all, if people of Mariupol would rather sip beer and watch the idiot-box, god knows how they would have reacted to incoming Russian troops. And if the people of Novorussia have had to man up and seize their freedom themselves, it is no doubt the safest and best guarantee of their future. So perhaps history will show us that the course actually followed by Putin was the best one.
Nevertheless, I hope, wish, and pray that somehow this whole affair wraps up as fast and as best as it can. Festering wounds being poked into by NATO doctors right on Russia’ borders makes me nervous, for I don’t trust these scoundrels one bit and am 100% convinced of their evil and aggressive intentions.
Re: Regime change,
That’s what I claimed would happen times and again. Just a short remainder: the conquest of Ukraine in 1918 led directly to the collapse of Germany at the end of the year.
Please notice #9 of the Geneva Ukraine Initiative:
9. Coordinate and establish special association and trade agreements
for Ukraine as well with the European Union as with the
Russian Federation, AND LATER POSSIBLY WITH THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY…
In other words the solution for the economical woes of Ukraine turns out to be exactly the one which the Agreement with Europe was meant to curtail (“civilizational choice”!).
Historical analogies don’t lack. After the Revolution the Bolsheviks were under various boycotts from the Western Powers. But…
“In December 1921 a group of industrialist and financiers of allied countries (although not the United States) met in Paris, and proposed the establishment of an ‘international corporation’ for the reconstruction of Europe It was understood that large-scale investment in Soviet Russia would be one of the major functions of the corporation, since the exploitation of the Russian resources was now recognized as a condition of European recovery” (E. H. Carr, The Bolshevik Revolution 1917-1923, vol.3, p. 356, Penguin Books)
Russian resources are as essential for European recovery as in 1921!
Dear Saker
Thank you for the information. It is always stimulating to see your point of view on the development.
Concerning the sanctions against Russia, you have the same opinion as Putin this is a chance for the Russian economy. At a meeting with young nuclear scientists, he said on Friday with regard to the development of their own Russian software:
“I believe we have to thank those of our colleagues who are pursuing certain political goals by introducing the economic limitations we all are aware of, because this makes us work. This is very good. Whatever programmes we put on paper regarding the need to diversify the economy, we do not have enough stimulus to implement them if we are doing fine selling the oil and gas that we have and buying everything we need abroad and it is rather difficult to create such a stimulus artificially. However, when life sets us certain challenges, we are forced to tackle them one way or another and we do.”
http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/22978
Saker, while much of your analysis is very insightful, I disagree with some of your conclusions on certain issues.
Specifically the various aims of Russia, I would note that Russia certainly has both the interests and the moral obligation to support the anti-nationalist segment of the Ukrainian population beyond the Donbass. After all, no few ethnic Russians belong to that group and it was Putin who declared his support for them while calling the Ukrainians ”a brother nation”. For the normal and sane ethnic Ukrainians this is quite true. Thus, Odessa activists (of all nationalities) have shown sufficient vigour in the face of fascistic, state-backed terrorism. I don’t think they are undeserving of support.
What I would mostly content, however, is the feasibility of the de-nazification of Ukraine by the populace. We are talking about a neo-feudal, fascist regime, one that, unlike Latin American dictatorships, is not – personality- or family-centered, but is based on an extremely insidious ideology. Already the hate-filled images of numerous Ukrainians of all ages show the effects of this plague. Only a crushing defeat of the regime would seem capable of uprooting, or at least shaking, the ascendant Ukrainian nazism. This was the historical case of Germany, Japan and Italy in WW2.
I admit that I (along with most of us in the blogg) might be ignorant of certain factors that shape the policies over Ukraine. Thus, I don’t think that any cease-fire would be wrong, but I strongly feel that this one was somewhat premature. That its timing was not the proper one.
Of course, I may well be wrong. This is just my view and NOT a hate mail.
Best.
I think Russians put too much hope on BRICS countries. These countries don’t have much in common and not united in anything.
They are developing common ground intensively in education, transport, energy, military
re:
1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)
Your number 3 assumes the people want de-Nazification, not de-Russification and a European future. Economic hardship and humiliation are likely to make people more sympathetic to a Nazi approach.
For that matter, events of the last few months could be argued to show that those in Kharkov or Odessa were wise in not rebelling. Ask those in the Donbass how asking for a Russian or Eurasian future has turned out. Maybe the Russian Spring resembles an Arab Spring in that sense.
The neo-cons are overwhelmingly Rightwing Jews with a few Sabbat Goy Toys tossed in for cosmetic purposes. The very great danger for humanity is that, with the USA so plainly collapsing into the mire of inequality, debt, social discord, elite contempt, militarised police repression and vast Gulags of incarceration, crumbling infrastructure and failing education, the Empire’s only remaining strong suit is military violence, subversion and prodigious self-delusion. The Real Evil Empire attracts psychopaths to its cause like corpse flies to a juicy cadaver, and the world is not short of psychopaths, from the ‘charming’ Blairs, Obamas and Camerons, to the barking mad, like Netan-yahoo, Timoshenko, Sikorski, Abbott, Rajoy, Aznar, Rasmussen and a cast of thousands like them. The central problem, I believe, is the age-old question of how do you deal with human evil and destructiveness, particularly when nuclear-armed and driven by a Messianic psychosis to believe themselves the supreme specimens of humanity ever. The first step is to recognise that this is Evil, not error, and that it cannot be compromised with or, unfortunately, reformed.
Jana, the funny thing about Putin is that he talks simple sense and means what he says. He doesn’t promise the moon, like Western political psychopaths, and certainly not falsely, as they always do. I see that Alex Salmond has observed that, while not surprised that the promises of greater autonomy for Scotland were being reneged on, that he was surprised at the speed with which they were being ditched.
Jana, the funny thing about Putin is that he talks simple sense and means what he says. He doesn’t promise the moon, like Western political psychopaths, and certainly not falsely, as they always do. I see that Alex Salmond has observed that, while not surprised that the promises of greater autonomy for Scotland were being reneged on, that he was surprised at the speed with which they were being ditched.
https://www.facebook.com/events/516658901802881/?ref_newsfeed_story_type=regular
The ‘5th Column’ demos scheduled for mid-September that Evgeny Fedorov warned about are arriving — just in time with Amb. Teft. I wonder where were all these antiwar people when Lugansk was being shelled daily, and where is their objection to Kiev’s war and ballistic missile lobbing against Donetsk? It is not war itself between fraternal peoples but only Russia’s response to Kiev’s war against Donbas that is condemned. Besides the fact is NTV covered the meeting between Teft and these ‘civil society’ members and lo and behold, the rallies start right on schedule. I can only imagine if the leaders of the Occupy Movement or the Tea Party were filmed going in and out of meetings with the Russian or Chinese ambassadors at their embassies in Washington how subsequent demonstrations would be portrayed in the US media.
OTOH, resorting back to the ‘colored revolution’ tactics and leaning heavily on the 5th column shows that Kiev’s military solution to the problem of Novorossiya has completely failed. Undoubtedly the goal of these demos is to try to insist, as during Bolotnaya protests, that Moscow is on the verge of some sort revolt when in reality it’s many cities in Banderastan-occupied Ukraine. ‘Flipping the script’ and ‘preemption’ are the key tools in the NATO/USSA propaganda arsenal, they need to talk endlessly about dead Russian soldiers lest anyone discuss Lyashko’s claim of 8,000 Ukrainian KIA or 500 Ukrainian volunteer battalion members/soldiers bodies suddenly discovered in shallow graves since the cease fire near Saur Mogila.
My guess is, about 10,000 hardcore Moscow liberals and some genuine anti-war people will show up for this protest, Reuters will claim 100,000 people attended, and Ukraine Today will insist it was half a million who also protested the Russian use of tactical nukes against Lugansk’s (already liberated) airport.
aquadraht, your idea that Israel, by which I assume you mean the Israeli state apparatus, and the Jewish Lobby in the USA (ie AIPAC, ADL etc)are not 100% in synch on all matters, intrigues me. Well in fact, I think that you are incorrect, but that’s just my opinion. And really, who in their right mind can argue that when AIPAC gets unanimous support in the Congress for the latest massacre in Gaza, drafts laws, attacks any remaining deviants from the Likudnik line with vigour and with other Jewish Lobby groups, polices all US politics down to local and primary levels, plus enjoys near unanimity of support in the MSM, that this amounts merely to ‘a lot of influence’. This seems to me to make you a master of understatement.
Saker
Btw, have you noticed this?
Strategic Cultures:
Russia-Egypt Arms Deal: Major Breakthrough as US Middle East Policy Faces Another Set Back
… On September 17 it was reported that Russia and Egypt have reached a preliminary deal for Cairo to buy arms worth $3.5 billion from Moscow. … The deal concluded between Russia and Egypt on September 17 portends a gradual reduction in Washington’s ability to control the quality and quantity of weapons that Cairo receives and to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. …
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/09/21/russia-egypt-arms-deal-major-breakthrough-as-us-middle-east-policy-faces-another-set-back.html
And the craziest thing in this is that the Sauds are going to finance this to counter US pressure against Egypt.
Rodion Romanovich, you little raskol, I’m afraid that once occupied mean occupied forever, or until the Real Evil Empire dies of its inner wickedness. That is soon, but as Anonymous noted, now that it is run by the sicarii of the Masada Complex, the Samson Option is a very real threat. Not because they are threatened with destruction themselves, but because they would rather destroy the ‘Jew-hating world’ (if I might quote from Professor David Perlmutter’s Opinion piece from the LA Times in 2002)than no longer rule over it through their Western puppets.
The information about the VEF Geneva September 14 meeting and protocol was new to me and very interesting.
However, isn’t there a chance that you might have misunderstood the “Recognize the right of self-determination”? To me it seems more to mean for the Ukraine as a country but not necessarily within Ukraine.
In that case, it change a lot your interpretation of that document.
The information about the VEF Geneva September 14 meeting and protocol was new to me and very interesting.
However, isn’t there a chance that you might have misunderstood the “Recognize the right of self-determination”? To me it seems more to mean for the Ukraine as a country but not necessarily within Ukraine.
In that case, it change a lot your interpretation of that document.
Hi Saker !
Good post…funny in one place when you said “where do we go from here” and congratulated yourself…about at least knowing where we’ve come…something like that.
Also, good to hear support towards Putin.
And I agree about the poor folks in SE Ukraine getting ready for winter. Now they have a little more aid from the Russian convoy they can start to get ready…
The only thing you haven’t mentioned is that arsenal plant in SE Ukraine that’s just exploded…I guess we’ll hear about that false flag for the next days. I hope the arsenal wasn’t needed by NAF.
There is no reason for Russia to get involved in any larger capacity than it already has been in Novorossia. Ukraistan will implode by itself, if not within weeks, than several months. All that Putin needs to watch is the development of the National economy, be it within the agro or industrial sector – but both. As for the “advice” given recently by P.C. Roberts re closing the gas pipes to “Europe” – overall not a bad idea, but it is not at all necessary to tease the mule – when Ukrainastan will fail to pass on the proper gas volumes to “Europe” this winter, “Europe” will feel the same effects. Here, Russia will not be at fault, but will derive the same results, that is starving “Europe” of energy through no fault of their own. Then we will see “Кузькина мать.”
Saker:
Are you planning to write an analysis of how Russia will respond to the American attack on Syria using the pretext of fighting the Islamic State/ISIS jihadists?
About the Israel interests I don’t think that they want to harm their relation with Russia.
Anyway they refused to send Ukraine the weapons it asked them. For one or more reasons.
The (french) site dedefensa.org is the first place I read that http://www.dedefensa.org/article-isra_l_refuse_une_commande_d_armes_de_kiev_17_09_2014.html
And here is the link within the post for english readers
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Israeli_arms_sale_to_Ukraine_blocked_report_999.html
AIPAC is not Israel, just crazy americans working with the military industrial complex on a daily basis. In this case I think they want to help those, not Israel.
Something we never talk about when talking about separatism, abandanism, joinism etc is how much would it cost. as we saw the US spent trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan and look how that turned up and this was just to put Humpty Dumpty back into one piece. Russia dont have the finances to even resurrect Crimea. Actually since it is kind of separate you can sort of ignore a lot of things and the population is low with only a few million. But imagine something like half of Ukraine, it would be the same thing that would happen if Ukraine joined the EU. half the population would move into Europe and the other half would move into Russia. Considering the entire Europe paid for German unification it would still destroy the EU. Russia being far smaller it would pretty much break everything and quality of life would show a drastic decrease across the board. A good example to see in real time would be Detroit. The US would never do something like this with Mexico. But Ukraine is Europe problem and the US always like to break things and leave it to others to clean up.
People really dont look at how advanced humans have become just in the last 100 years. That costs a huge amount of money and labor and it does take a huge effort once its gone to bring it back to the modern age. You really dont want to live in a Gaza like environment.
Hi Saker,
Thanks for the interesting analysis — as all of your analyses are. I was discussing this one with a friend of mine — we both have been following the events relating to Ukraine and Russia closely — and we were wondering how you see Russia being able to effect regime change in Kiev. Can you please explain how this might come about.
Thanks,
Natylie
to the saker:
One thing I looked for in your analysis but did not see… yet you hint at it when you reflect on buying time for winter and economic events to run their course… this agreement is about buying time…
The time frame is 3 years.
Some things that come to mind as ready in 3 years are:
1) The Chinese gas pipeline(s). If sanctions cut gas income from Europe, Putin would be in trouble.
2) Russian and Chinese economic alternatives for trade payments.
3) Oil production from the Arctic in Russia. (not to mention the fracking boom will have peaked in the US)
4) Deployment of Russia’s 5th gen aircraft, the S500 system, upgraded drone technology, as well as another 4 state of the art ballistic missile submarines.
5) Economic de-coupling from Europe while integrating with Iran, India, and Vietnam.
These are just off the top of my head, I am sure you can add many others. 3 years takes Russia to a place of real stability regardless of western actions. However, 3 years is a long time to allow the current propaganda and Nazification process to run…
IMO The west is not about to allow Ukraine to collapse economically this winter. They have too much PR invested in it and the 10 billion it would cost to keep things afloat to next summer is chump change to them.
This process may result in some good for Novorussia down the road, but in all honesty, holding out for a Russian invasion to accomplish it some time in the future is by your own logic and repeated argument just plain stupid. Neither will the Ukrainian people vote in a Novorussian friendly regime.
The good in these agreements is all for Russia. What is required of those in Novorussia is faith that in 3 years the leadership of Russia will not forget their sacrifice and will in some way – as yet unforeseeable by anyone (including Putin) repay them and help them to an independent state. Such faith is in short supply – even in Novorussia.
Re: sanctions, isolation of Russia
“French vegetable farmers set fire to tax and insurance offices in protest over government inaction on falling living standards stemming from bad crops and Russian food import bans”. (http://www.thewire.com/global/2014/09/french-farmers-torch-government-offices-to-protest/380550)
“PARIS, Sept 12 (Reuters) – France’s farm sector is under pressure after the wettest summer since 1959 hurt the wheat crop and from Russian food import bans which could threaten jobs in an already frail economy… The overall impact could prove far higher than the loss of exports alone, farmers said, as the resulting oversupply lowers prices across Europe”. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/france-agriculture-idUSL5N0R41PO20140912)
I understand terror, but mainstream Ukrainians have to assess the damage from the junta: Crimea lost, Novorossiya lost, economy in taters, oligarchs in power via bossed elections, no genuine assistance from the West and worst of all…
Winter is Coming.
Parties go to the dustbin of history for far less.
Russia is intent on having a ring of neutral countries around itself, and that is not hard to understand. Russia is methodically breaking the money monopoly of the New World Order to all our benefit. Will the NWO seek war to prevent this? No, they have tipped their cowardly hand one too many times.
They will employ everything short of direct conflict, and might stumble into war, however. All Moscow and Beijing need to do is keep one hand on the launch button at all times, and they will win in the end. And in that multipolar endgame we will ALL be better off.
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
This is the perfect time to read Winston S. Churchill’s speech from 9 November 1942.
What’s coming up?
US Mid-Terms (First week of November)
G20 Leaders Meeting (Second week of November)
General Winter (Soon after that)
In 2015
UK Election.
If things can progress until this election – this could well presage the fall of David Cameron. What would be best for the World (Including Russia & Novorossiya) is if somehow a sensible Anglo – Nigel Farage – who understands what has gone on in Ukraine seemingly better than almost any other British politician – could end up holding a balance of power in the UK Parliament.
If Farage could gain the balance of power with UKIP he just might be able to reorientate UK Foreign Policy in a more sensible direction.
It’s probably a forlorn hope.
The other hope is a Catalan vote for Independence – Also in early November potentially.
Neutral observer here: I am not so sure of the analysis because, if 7k Ukr troops are surrounded and being wiped out near Debaltsevo and nobody is talking about it, then all informed parties to the conflict must want another Illovaisk disaster but this time without the publicity. If Obama and Merkel and Poro are ok with federalization that would leave the west with at least 20 provinces, their goal would be Putin’s goal, which would be no Ukrainian Army bigger than that needed to defend Kiev. So the military “svodki” (sitreps) are still paramount. Is the Debaltsevo action not really the.main event now? 7k is a giant size partof the remaining Ukrainian Army not jammed into Mariupol. Minsk may have only been a way of saying russian intervention should not be so obvious.
Anyhow, Voentorg is the term now used for Ukr generals and officers selling equipment by getting it deliberately trapped in boilers and telling their men afterwards to use humanitarian corridors to abandon it. I believe Saker got this term wrong. Torg means trade or barter. Russia just gifts equipment so you cannot use the term to explain this gift giving.
Question: did Gubarev accurately report 3 battalions of foreigh mercs landing in Kramatorsk yesterday?
I believe Donetsk Airport is deliberately uncaptured because it provides a good excuse for Ukrainian generals to order neo nazis to go there. The real civil war right now may be between factions on the Ukr side who only pretend to be fighting the russians together.
How true is info about Debaltsevo?
No official news yet?
Why it is OK to let Ukiès to keep airport? Can you please explain this?
Thank you
Based on this analysis, it seems that the logical and correct thing for the US to do is install a hard-core radical regime. The only question would be the timing, and perhaps if Poroshenko could “achieve” some bad things before being driven out.
If he were driven out, and most of the oligarchical employees and such as well, a much more pure Bandera group could come to power, often with folks from countries like Canada and Israel. This would also be a way of getting rid of the huge number of Russian agents all over the place.
Why Chtuhlu, when we have, in plain and open language Gog and Magog, in the fabricated interpretation of Ezekiel, 38-39, the modern Russians, the ferocious enemies of and threat to Israel? But who will be utterly destroyed by the Holy One of the Jews. Or by the Muslims, who knows? If Gog and Magog are the same Russians as for the Jews, Israel and Islam get a bit conflated in the End of Time fabulations.
Principles of reaction and counterreaction are being handled in a strange way by the Russian leadership (I purposedly don’t say Putin, as far as I can guess, he’s much less all-powerful than most people think).
Reaction to the crazy sanctions has been incredibly timid, and so far hurted only naughty but irrelevants “Chihuahuas” like the Baltics and States like Spain and Portugal who have no real commitment in the matter.
Can anyone tell me why the Kremlin does not apply the easiest and more productive of counter-sanctions: a good, sound, export tax or tariff on gas and oil being sent to sanctionist Countries, that Gazprom must claim back from them?
Bite Merkel’s fat ass, and maybe she will become more respectful. So far, great hopes were vested on her and she betrayed them all. Just let her understand there is a price to pay.
To Rodion Romanovic: imho Italy never recovered as a Nation from WWII. Actually Italy was never a Nation properly, she went through an accelerated course to become such (you know what I mean) but the thing ended badly. Her present abject submission to anyone is willing to give her orders (Bruxelles, Washington, Berlin) leaves no doubts as to the future.
It looks like Liashko has his “bolt hole” prepared.
The patriot Lyashko-Austrian citizenship
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/5027-u-patriota-lyashko-avstriyskoe-grazhdanstvo.html
вот так
Saker, may I ask you which is your take about Aksenov, the Head of the Republic of Crimea ?
I have read the appalling allegations about his links with organized crime on the english version of Wikipedia. I wonder why Aksenov does not take immediate legal action if they are groundless.
On the Russian Wikipedia these allegations are mentioned in a more balanced way, making them appear as a defamation against him (a libel trial was lost anyway by Aksenov in 2010).
Thanks
Mr. Saker, you always make comparison between Ukraine and Croatia. But those two situation have nothing in common.
I know that you accepted great-Serbian approach and I cannot change your mind.
But
First, after Tito’s death, nationalist lunacy similar to Ukrainie today, prevailed among Serbs. They refused Yugoslavia based on federal balance and accepted old Great Serbia idea.
Second, after that Serbs tried to reorganize Yugoslavia as a Great Serbia and to change borders and to grab territories of other republics. In orer t achieve that, they used federal Army and fact that Army structure was predominantly Serbian.
Third, Serbian Kraina did not exist. It was created on the basis of aggression, and many war crimes, killings, ethnic cleansing. Never in history any part of Croatia belonged to Serbs. They came to Croatia running away from Ottoman Turks.
Fourth, That war did not start in 1993 or 1995 when Serbs escape from Croatia because of operation Storm. The war started in 1991 when Serbs were strongest.
Fifth, SERS STARTED WARS IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERYEGOVINA. They committed many terrible crimes. And Serbian victims and massive escape from Croatia came couple of years after SERBIAN AGRESSION.
Don’t say that you think that we had to surrender to Serbian chetniks and to give them our lands and beg mercy from them.
Of course we fought and WE ARE PROUD OF IT.
And Serbs are crying now when they lost.
And, after all, your opinion that NATO were our masers in that war, it is nonsense. Town of Bihac in western Bosnia was surrounded by Serbs and it was horror possibility that Serbian extremists will commit another slaughter worst than one in Srebrenica. America and NATO did not have other choice than to let Croatian Army to stop Serbian paramilitary troops and to solve problem of Croatian territories occupied by Serbs.
But, to compensate that, America and NATO awarded Serbs with half of Bosnia and Herzegovina and it is much more than that belongs to Serbs. and two other ethnic groups got another half.
When Croatian troops came near Banja Luka, the center of Bosnian Serb controlled land, NATO told to Croats that if they move further that NATO was going to attack them.
So, Mr. Saker, Serbs were aggressors and attackers, and Croats defended themselves.Also, try to inform yourself from more than one sources if you want to discuss local wars, not to take only one version as a definitive truth just because you think that if somebody belongs to same religion as you, that he is absolutely right.
It is fact, doesnot matter if you like it or not!
And I hope that Russia will never lead politics based on Orthodox Pravoslavlje brotherhoods and similar stupidities. I believe that Russian leadership is wiser than that.
Otherwise, such Russia would not get too far.
Mr. Saker, you always make comparison between Ukraine and Croatia. But those two situation have nothing in common.
I know that you accepted great-Serbian approach and I cannot change your mind.
But
First, after Tito’s death, nationalist lunacy similar to Ukrainie today, prevailed among Serbs. They refused Yugoslavia based on federal balance and accepted old Great Serbia idea.
Second, after that Serbs tried to reorganize Yugoslavia as a Great Serbia and to change borders and to grab territories of other republics. In orer t achieve that, they used federal Army and fact that Army structure was predominantly Serbian.
Third, Serbian Kraina did not exist. It was created on the basis of aggression, and many war crimes, killings, ethnic cleansing. Never in history any part of Croatia belonged to Serbs. They came to Croatia running away from Ottoman Turks.
Fourth, That war did not start in 1993 or 1995 when Serbs escape from Croatia because of operation Storm. The war started in 1991 when Serbs were strongest.
Fifth, SERS STARTED WARS IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERYEGOVINA. They committed many terrible crimes. And Serbian victims and massive escape from Croatia came couple of years after SERBIAN AGRESSION.
Don’t say that you think that we had to surrender to Serbian chetniks and to give them our lands and beg mercy from them.
Of course we fought and WE ARE PROUD OF IT.
And Serbs are crying now when they lost.
And, after all, your opinion that NATO were our masers in that war, it is nonsense. Town of Bihac in western Bosnia was surrounded by Serbs and it was horror possibility that Serbian extremists will commit another slaughter worst than one in Srebrenica. America and NATO did not have other choice than to let Croatian Army to stop Serbian paramilitary troops and to solve problem of Croatian territories occupied by Serbs.
But, to compensate that, America and NATO awarded Serbs with half of Bosnia and Herzegovina and it is much more than that belongs to Serbs. and two other ethnic groups got another half.
When Croatian troops came near Banja Luka, the center of Bosnian Serb controlled land, NATO told to Croats that if they move further that NATO was going to attack them.
So, Mr. Saker, Serbs were aggressors and attackers, and Croats defended themselves.Also, try to inform yourself from more than one sources if you want to discuss local wars, not to take only one version as a definitive truth just because you think that if somebody belongs to same religion as you, that he is absolutely right.
It is fact, doesnot matter if you like it or not!
And I hope that Russia will never lead politics based on Orthodox Pravoslavlje brotherhoods and similar stupidities. I believe that Russian leadership is wiser than that.
Otherwise, such Russia would not get too far.
“Lovecraft’s Chtuhlu”
Strange! I’ve read two articles this morning and both referred to Lovecraft’s “Chtuhlu”.
Has this book suddenly become relevant in some way?
Just curious.
“This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. “
Disagree!.
Ukraine was not in nato from day1, so everything that is happening is NOT in any victories for Russia.
Its all about How Much losses things are for Russia.
If Russia had respected the Budapest protocol, then Russia would have intervened in feb-april in Ukraine, before the ukr gov coup got to much out of hand.
Every step after that is a loss for Russia.
And any destruction of east-ukranians hope for freedom, is a capitulation of Russia.
And an Extremly dangerous message to send to usa.
Usa now knows that they can poke the bear. The bear is made out of plastic.
Next: Azerbadsjan-Armenia war, Turkmenistan indepence, More riots in Turkey, Turk->Turkey->Eu gasspipes, and eventually Azerbadsjan-Turkey->eu gasspipes. Escalate Syria war.
And then Russia civil maidan-war.
The water got tested, and usa seemed to have won big time.
Wishful thinking
Dearest Saker,
Yes, a divorce is being taking place between the Anglo and Zionist. This is slowly, slowly happening. And, for the Anglo to reduce the influence of the Zionist, they are intentionally pushing and gathering Russia, China, BRICK, SCO into a strong camp.
The Anglo are realizing that Cooperation is much, much better for the world that Confrontation. God is Harmony, God is not Confrontation.
Is the above better wordings?
Kindest regards,
Mohamed.
And because the usa international rhetoric… Georgia and other nations will get nato-statuses.
They will not let ukraine or georgia in, because those nations are nutcases.
But they are going to grant them special status and arm and drill them up in years.
And set up nato bases eventually.
And other nato bases around russia is upgraded.
In other words… Russia did not win here, usa did.
Russia had only things to loose in ukraine conflict.
Usa had only things to win.
Russia has lost ALOT.
But avoided some losses (which here is called “great victories”).
Watch the developments where usa is participating lime Afghanistan Iraq now Ukraine – it’s a bummer keep losing billions and also trust and respect
Also provides a lot to joke about
When i refered to “usa” i did not mean usa as a nation, but usa as the oligarchs and powerstructure.
The bill for the wars are sent to taxpayers. The income goes to oligarchs.
(The oligarchs pay for the president electioncampaigns and congresscontroll).
So just because a war is not profitable for a nation as a whole, is of no relevance to oligarchs.
Most of usa zionists are mobile. When usa as a state fails (and it will eventually!), the zionists will move their international billion dollar companies hq out of usa.
But yes i also smile when usa fails in their projects:)
But sadly Zionist oligarchs could almost care less.
Because they seldome fail (and they made trillions in these wars. Got resources, sold weapons, oils, etc), and the taxpayers have to pay for the losses, expenses.
Who wouldnt be happy if they only got income, and all expenses was payed by others?
So sadly Zionist oligarchs win again and again:(
The only hope, is that in their cockyness overstretch.. And get jammed down (killed) in big wars or assisinations.
(Small wars/conflicts and they tend to hide in safeplaces).
Anglo versus NeoZionist
The New Age!
Best regards,
Mohamed.
“freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest “distraction” in internal Ukie politics: the so-called “Russian invasion”.
“
In the meantime…
The now nationwide censored media, will burst out propaganda.
10 years of anti-Russia propaganda in west-ukraine, made todays monsters.
A few years of same propaganda bs in east, and you will see how much media-controll is worth.
Even ethnic russians in east-ukraine are going to HATE russia in a few years!.
Thats how powerfull media-propaganda is!.
Yeltsin had almost 0% approval rating before his 96-election.
But when he alligned with powerfull oligarchs who controlled media outlets… He in just 6 months time was able to win the election with a clear margin.
Yeltsin who had allready driven Russia into mass-debt, bankruptsy, corruption, insane politics, unconstitutional moves, extreme level of poverty etc etc.
(Those times, makes even Ukraine look prosperous).
Putin cleaned up Yeltsin mess, to the extent he was able to.
Oligarchs allready got extensive stakes and power from the Yeltsin deals.
Yeltsin imo is proberly the biggest traitor of modern Russian history.
His own selfishness did not allow him to loose power (several times), so he made insane deals to f’ed russia properties.
Some information on how the Black Sea could become a big trap for the USN in this article.
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/watch-these-russian-missiles-completely-tear-through-a-1636002082/all
There are some interesting comments there too. Here is one of the comments:
The Old Terminology: AngloZionist.
The New Terminology: NeoconZionist.
WHY?
Because a separation is being taking place between Anglo and Zionist. A marriage of convenience is happening between Neocon and Zionist, thus the new terminology. “NeoconZionist”.
Or, as my dearest sister AGS will call, “SOS”.
BTW, where are my two dearest sisters, Nora and AGS. Time to rejoice!
Best regards,
Mohamed.
“There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. “
Disagree.
Russia should have intervened from almost day1.
The waiting game is disastrous dangerous.
If this event was just an coincident event, not linked to a bigger plan, then ok.
But the end goal of usa is much bigger then some almost useless country like ukraine.
Usa will find ways to blame russia anyways. Hanging events in the sky, will just fuel usa with oppurtunities.
Events need to be fixed ASAP when they arises (like Syria WMD).
Otherwise usa will escelate the event to burning attacks on russian interests.
IF russia had intervened in ukraine from day30, then the west would not have had time to set out 10 lvls of sanctions, plot out sabotaging ways, etc.
And what did Russia win? NOTHING!.
Cold war will come regardless!!!.
And WW3? Zombified Russia with no claws look like an easier and weaker target=WW3 will come, it may even come sooner now, because nato get more cocky, while underestimate Russia as a power or underestimate where russian bounderies lays… So eventually both will then step into the same mud in the same ring, with no way back.
Russia could have drawn the line, while nato in last months were probing russia for how far it was able to push.
“But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.
“
Thats NOT how things work in the world or history.
A threat do not go away by itself.
And the ukraine incident was never about ukraine.
It was always about weakening russia.
For a nation like tmrussia to just sit by when usa hack away with 10years of propaganda, fueling anti-russian hate and preparing for tomorrows soldiers in a war against russia….
It would be dumb to ignore such.
At best usa just wins by brainwashing ukraine and other nations to become anti-russian and stop all trades with russia.
And then russia loose again.
You cant ignore such serious problems.
Ignoring such problems, and saying that ukraine can fix itself (we wont bother), is the same way that europe reacted to Hitler when he staged the coup in Germany.
And the level of propaganda and brainwash led to attack on 1 nation after another. (Always excuses to not intervene).
Insightful analysis as always. One thing that disturbs me though is Russia’s provocations against several European states by means of violating their airspace. For instance only a few days ago they allegedly violated Swedish airspace: http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/svenskt-luftrum-krankt-av-ryska-attackplan/ If this is true, then Russia is practically pushing Sweden into NATO.
In the grand scheme of WW3, What has the Outlaw US Empire done to impede the organizing of the Multi-Polar World Designed to put it in its place and resubordinate it to the rule of law? I would say nothing; rather, it’s actually facilitated the organizing and the resolve of those nations working hard to deter Washington.
Two points.
1. Self-determination was clearly meant for Ukraine itself. That was evident from it being put in the context of its NATO membership. This “self-determination” is the usual excuse the West uses when explaining the NATO expanding eastwards.
2. In his historical statement Strelkov explicitly warned against the ceasefires, prolonging or freezing the conflict. In his words, such a conflict can serve as a means (bleeding ulcer) to ruin Russia itself
The aim of the US, in Joudeh’s view, is to create a “new Syria” with a de facto partition of the country. “You are talking about a northern region, controlled by the US and the groups they want to support, and IS. Plus an area in the south, controlled by the regime,” he said.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/in-depth/features/syrian-army-looks-safe-u-s-air-strikes-193492751
I don’t think this is a viable plan at least for the long term. Fracking gas costs like $15 for LNG while the current prices for pipeline gas is under $4. So LNG is not a viable alternative where prices are low and gas pipelines are available. S everyone who is now Fracking is selling their products at a loss. Let alone the environmental damage it causes which can end up cost HUGE amounts of money as they destroy not only underground water supplies but the land as well. Fracking Oil is even worse as it is equal to just processing uranium out in the open. That land is gone for thousands of years and it pollutes huge areas. Fracking at this time is only a show. The US wants Russia out of the gas trade in Europe. It seems they also want Iran out of it. Holding just part of Syria would be no good to get gas from Qatar to turkey. As Iran also controls the lower part of Iraq. It is possible for Iran to build a pipeline in the new Syria and New Iraq and via Lebanon to get to the Mediterranean. Could be they want to consolidate norther Syria into a state and then use the Vietnam/Korea parallels to make a push for regime change.
I dont think the US has time for this sht. In 5 years Russia would come to par in military technology and the US already has a viable missile defense system. Anyone ho follows US defense development knows, it is only in the last phase of rolling out the product that they go ask for funding. By then they already have a working prototype and implementation problems have mostly been taken care off, I highly doubt their competence has drooped off so drastically. Most of the problems we are shown have been because of fighting between the different branches who want it implemented their way and problems crop up because it just was not designed for it and making changes in the end like that requires massive amounts of money for research on what needs to be done. Now can it defeat new Russian tech we dont know. But the gap is definitely closing on the US being able to overcome Russian defenses as well as a being able to stop a Russian attack.
So it also looks like Putins hands are tied. Seems his “friends” wont let him abandon their luxury flats in New York and London..
The prime minister went on to say that the damage to the Russian economy is not done by sanctions, but by internal limitations within the country.
At the same time, Medvedev stressed that – despite current tensions – Russia has no plan to abandon the European markets.
“We supply between 130 billion to 140 billion cubic meters of gas and 200 million tons of oil to Europe. For us, it’s a very important market. A market that we conquered,” he said.
http://rt.com/business/189344-medvedev-sanction-eu-asia/
“Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I.”
Yes we heard about the uprising in april-may.
Also heard:
– Ukr army has a big navy base there.
– The local police sided with the east-ukranians, and ukr army sent in non-local mercenaries to destroy the local (brick wall) police HQ. Several police officers got killed, and others dissapeared and is still missing to this day.
– Akhemtov threatened DPR. Anyone who took part in DPR activities will be fired from their work.
– Akhmetov even got “bether”. He eventually had a _mandatory_ gathering of all his miners in the district (Maripoul). Anyone who did not show up=fired.
Akhemtov set up a “miners”defence team” of several thousands miners. Who had to swear allegiance to Akhmetov.
It was only THEN that the DPR “rebels” decided to leave Maripoul alone. (An unwritten “deal” with Akhmetov to leave Maripoul alone).
So allthough Akhmetov is nowhere near as brutal as Kolomoisky, Akhmetov do have several thousand “city guards”.
To be honest, i was surprised/shocked to see naf going for Maripoul recently.
But i guess things may have changed…
So Yes, you may not have gotten all these events about Maripoul that happend right before summer. But there were many incidents.
And IF Akhmetov had not set his foot down with his at that time big “army” , then Maripoul would very likely been part of the real uprising!.
(the rebels was not organized at that time).
Maripoul is also “home” to dozens of usa “advisors”, and nato officers and other “peacefull entities”.
In august aprox 3 usa advisors are reportedly got shot by rebel snipers. (Usa has officially 180 advisors in ukraine. Unofficially they also have some merchaners, cia etc).
Anyway, i do agree with to few east-ukranians rising up.
They have been way to much passified.
Almost as if they were on drugs.
Reminds me of guinea pigs who do not understand that their going to be slaughtered the next day.
Either they to are getting to confused by all the propaganda or lack of information.
But mostly passified by the sher brutality of the neo-nazi gangs who bussed across ukraine to passify any dissidents.
Neo-nazis set up local hq’s. (Where many of the nazi batallion have gotten their names from).
Around 4000 internet bloggers/journalists are now also going to get into trouble in ukraine, after new law. Can get prosecuted for beeing to negative to the coup gov.
@Mulga Mumblevrain: excellent comments!
The person who wrote that gibberish about APAIC above is probably either a very misinformed person or a disinformation agent.
Is it a Masasa Complex or MadUSA (Medusa) Complex?
That word concept came to me on a recent article about the Yankees trying to do the the Asian Pivot when attacking Russia, I said in my tweet that . . .
https://twitter.com/EscapePatagonia/status/513406884574138369
Here are some more business news. Ukrainian-US-Russia..
The US has huge stockpiles of DU which is great for building tanks and ships, not so great for building planes since it weighs a ton. China, Russia and Japan produce 3/4th the titanium on the planet so not sure how Ukraine expects to affect this market even if the US wants to appease them. But it does show that the US is going after ALL export markets for Russia. Even if they can only buy inferior products from others.
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=11371#more-11371
This stuff makes my head hurts because there are words but the meaning is beyond reason. On the one hand I think Poroshenko wants to get out with as much of his assets as possible most of which are not worth much right now. So delusions of grandeur has to have an effect when you stare at loosing billions.
VICTOR PINCHUK THROWS A WAR PARTY IN KIEV — GEORGE SOROS AND MIKHAIL FRIDMAN PAY FOR COCKTAILS, DMITRY MEDVEDEV SENDS SINGERS TO JOIN PRAVY SEKTOR, DNIEPR BATTALION IN CHORUS
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=11352
Ukraine seems to have no business sense. The US seems to be saying lies to appease them because to tell the truth would be too painful. How else can you explain the stupidity of some of these business decisions. They dont even seem to care about losing everything themselves let alone the rest of the country. Unless these guys have most of their assets in the US and has been warned they would lose all that unless they do as they are told not matter how assine it looks to others from a business perspective.