Reuters reports that Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovich, a strong candidate for president, said he would keep the country out of NATO if he wins the January 17 Presidential election (The most recent opinion polls indicate he would beat Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a February 7 run-off vote).
Saker Message:
No surprise. In 2004, when Yanukovich was prime-minister, he and former president Kuchma signed a decree that Ukraine would remain neutral and never join any foreign military alliance. One of the very first things Yushchenko did when he became president was to throw away this law.
But like I said before, let’s see if Yanukovich (or even Tymoshenko, if she wins) will be allowed to become president.
@Carlo: do you know if Tymoshenko has taken any final “official” position on that or is she still sitting on the fence?
As far as I know, she hasn’t made any declaration on this, and probably won’t, as I guess she wants to get votes also from Western Ukrainians and those who would vote for Yushchenko in the second round. But Yushchenko in his campaign is saying that Yanukovich and Tymoshenko are both “puppets of Moscow”, so by this declaration we can have an idea of what all the fanatical pro-NATO groups think of her.
@Carlo: well, Tymoshenko is quite a smart lady. In some ways she reminds me of Hillary Clinton. Equally smart, equally ruthless, and equally devoid of any kind of principle of ethics. I bet you Tymoshenko would become a vegetarian, or a Buddhist, or a Russian Imperial nationalist, or a Peruvian patriot for that matter if that can win her an election :-)
I suspect that the good old Yulia simply is smart enough to figure out that the heyday of Ukie nationalism is over, so she is toning down her “orange” credentials and carefully trying to balance NATO and Russia influence which is not a dumb thing to do anyway.
I remember when she met Putin in Moscow. I looked at them and I thought “these two sly foxes will find a common language”.
But these are only impressions of mine, no more (I have never looked indepth at the behind the scenes reality of what is going on in the Ukraine since 1991.)
So, as I said, your guess is as good, or better, than mine.
Saker,
Maybe its premature, but it would be great to hear your take on how a Ukraine that is either pro Russian or at least not pro NATO would change the regional/global balance of power.
I would like to take it as a sign that 2004 was the hight water mark of empire and the stagnant waters only recede from here.