UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi put it simply: there are only two ways for Syria – a political process or hell. In other words, he agreed with the Russian position.
As for the opposition, it immediately declared that a non-negotiable precondition for any negotiations must be the departure of Assad (making any thinking person wonder what there would be left to negotiate at this point).
So we have the following dynamic: Assad agrees that the future of Syria should be decided upon in elections, and Assad agrees to negotiate without any pre-conditions. The opposition reject both the ballot and any negotiations.
I would say that by now only drooling idiots or fundamentally dishonest people could seriously lay the blame for the carnage taking place on Assad.
The Saker
Chavez’s health is not well:
http://www.clarin.com/mundo/Hugo_Chavez-Venezuela_0_838716248.html
I don’t see a good future for Venezuela. He failed in diversifying the economy and decrease crime and violence (though economic inequality did decrease), so without its most (almost only) charismatic figure, the United Socialist Party won’t have much of a future.
@Carlo: yes, I saw that and I am concerned too. Yet even though he was sick he had a big election win recently, and he has prepared a successor. So is there no hope for a “Chavismo sin Chavez”? A friend of mine in Venezuela told me that Chavez actually alienated a lot of people and that “Chavismo sin Chavez” might be a very viable idea.
What do you think?
My first guess would be no, not possible, as he is by far the most charismatic figure. Yet I am not that informed about Venezuela’s current domestic politics, so I hope your friend is right. Even though there are areas that didn’t advance as they should (like developing the industry and agriculture) and a few others clearly worsened (like crime and state control over mass media), it would be a pity to see the many advancements being lost. I am not a Chavista, but I can’t deny the successes he brought.
Saker,
Happy new year!!! I hope everything is well with you. About Chavez there are a few facts that has to be considered about the successfully Chavez. One of them is that he is backed up by the army and the root of the Chavismo despite his charismatic(which might not help to win elections) is ideas and the ideology of many people behind the goverment…This started when the people in the army(not all of them) realize that the ideas they were fighting for weren’t on the agenda of Andres Perez who was (one more time) being controlled by FMI, BM and other powers..with this in their mind and hearth they tried to overtrow Perez(golpe de estado) in this case a coupe de etat that could be name as fair. With this said you can very well explain why Chavez is still in power despite CNN has killed him many times( literally) not only being charismatic is also because he has said what many puppets can’t say and has said and done many things that common sense became just common sense, he speaks the truth. Is Chavismo possible without Chavez? who knows that there is something true Chavismo is not only in Venezuela is almos all over you could see in how many countries people have gathered to pray ( Brasil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico, etc) for Chavez health…He will be back Chavez is one of those who has many lives as a cat and you dont have to be Chavista to clearly see this. My best to all!
@anonymous: Happy new year to you too!
The other thing to consider is this: if not Chavez, then what? My (admittedly limited) understanding of what is going on in Venezuela is that the entire opposition to Chavez is rotten to the core, pro-USA, pro-Israel, and financed by Uncle Sam. If that is true, then that would mean that any alternative to “Chavismo sin Chavez” would be a total surrender of Venezuela to Wall Street and that is something which the Venezuelans are not going to accept that easily. After all, Chavez *did* empower a lot of people, he *did* make them read, study the constitution, involve them in the political life on all levels of the state from the local Party cell to the Vice-Presidency, he did dramatically improve the conditions of large segments of the population who, I would guess, might be willing to fight the “returning Yankees” with weapons in their hands (and weapons they do have).
So one of my big hopes is that it is impossible to put the (popular) genie back into the (capitalist) bottle and that this fact will prevent Uncle Sam from taking over the country.
We shall see.
All the best and kind regards,
The Saker
While I can’t talk based on facts, my biggest fear is that the opposition may return due to Chavez’s mistakes, and he did made quite some. He didn’t do much to diversify Venezuela’s economy, to develop industry and agriculture, so no matter how much petrodollars he gives to the poor there are still many people in a fragile situation because they depend on the state. I am not against welfare policies, on the contrary, but they need to be complemented by a growing economy which creates jobs and makes people fully independent.
Also, Chavez really mismanaged his anti-crime policy. During his government, Venezuela surpassed Colombia in the number of murders per capita. Chavez believes that education and social equality are the only way to reduce crime, and he is right, but in the long run; in the short there is no other way to combat it than arresting and severely punishing criminals. This is a common mistake, by the way, through all Latin American left, who views criminals as “victims” and defend “Scandinavian-style” laws and prisons, which work only after many decades of prosperity.
He also went a bit too far by eliminating the number of consecutives mandates the president may have, and repressing the opposition media. Putin, who is even more hated in the West than Chavez (at least Chavez is loved by many leftists in Europe and North America, while Putin is universally despised as “KGB-man who wants to ressurrect the USSR”), and who also faces an opposition backed by foreign powers, didn’t need to resort to such policies, and I think the Russian president was wiser in this aspect.
So I fear, and I wish I am wrong, that without the strong and charismatic presence of Chavez, the opposition can easily exploit his mistakes, and then the good things he did (education and healthcare programs, foreign policy, direct democracy initiatives) may be lost, also.
I do know a bit about the region, since I lived there for sometime, and try to closely follow popular politics. Chavismo, or Socialism of 21st Century will definitely survive Chavez… the individual who he has not necessarily groomed, but has emerged as one of the strongest and most articulate individuals – is well prepared to take the reigns. Maduro’s foreign policy is sound, – check his speeches avail. on youtube – I fully expect him to maintain ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran – and continue with other Chavez policies. There has also emerged a left within the PSUV – that is stronger in terms of developing an anti-imperialist, and social welfare agenda.
Having said that I agree with Carlo re: crime, which is also a problem in other South American countries, including Ecuador, and Bolivia – in these countries the problem of crime is localized in large cities. Part of the reason is that the smaller towns, villages, rural areas have large indigenous populations, whose criminal code is much closer to the Islamic code – that views criminality as a moral issue, that needs to be sternly confronted. The indigenous punishment for crime range from lashing with a nettle branch to the death penalty (rarely applied, frowned upon by the state, but not as much intervention – other than the bogus “lets modernize the Indians” type) … This, and a sense of close knit community leads to practically zero crime rate, very low divorce rate, and none or little of the adultry type behx common in large cities of south america.
There is a sentiment that crime needs to be confronted head on – but as Carlo said, way too many leftist think of criminals as victims – which to an extent they may also be… but lack of stringent enforcement is also the problem.
I do however think that the ALBA nations, including Venezuela will survive Chavez’s passing (if he passes, inshallah – we pray that he will recover, and continue to lead ). Large sections of the people now have seen the fruits, and I think only a significant imperial intervention can change the course – which is of-course an expected possibility… but in this respect to, people have become aware … and large sections don’t worship the US any more, like they used to at one time… inshallah, all will be well.
You may well be right, Anonymous. I am South American myself (Brazilian living in Argentina), but confess that I am quite uninformed about Venezuela’s recent developments, especially in internal affairs.
Anyway, I just want to let one thing clear: I do think that most criminals, in Latin America and other places also, are victims of an unfair social and economical order. This doesn’t change the fact that allowing criminal acts are extremely dangerous to society, and must be punished, otherwise it just increases due to a sense of impunity and get out of control: this happened in Brazil after the end of the military dictatorship in the mid 80’s, and seems to be happening in Argentina now. After some decades of good education and social and economic equality crime will lower, and then we can talk about criminals serving very light penalties, or even suspended sentences.
One question that perhaps you know, Anonymous: in Brazil and Argentina, one of the greatest disappointments regarding the new left is corruption, close associates of the presidents (and even the Kirchner couple themselves) got tremendously rich in very short time, completely out of proportion with their incomes. What about Venezuela? Is corruption also high there? I’ve never heard, not even in the press agains him, that Chavez himself is rich, but perhaps close associates are.
I thought I’d sent in a comment, but maybe got lost… so, Carlo’s question re: corruption. I don’t think corruption is as big of a problem, as plain incompetence is … most of the people around Chavez have a high level of integrity, and excellent intentions, but are not necessarily competent.
The problem is that as in many countries of the “third world” it is the oligarchy that was “educated” and are the technocrats… And these people not only hate Chavez, but hate the very idea of seeing working class/”lower class” – darker, sometimes very darker, and indigenous peoples – who they have treated as their personal slaves… now begin to rise and seriously talk back to the oligarchy class. The result is that the best and brightest technocrats – are not into being cooperative – and will only work for their own selves. And the newer generation of technocrats from the working classes have yet to fully emerge – they are emerging, but not as yet…. So, there are frustrations, from garbage pick up problems to projects not being completed – sometimes because of logistics – that could’ve easily been resolved.
Iran had similar problems – but they resolved it by creating a whole new army – and a massive crop of volunteers known as the Baseej (much maligned in the “west”) – who worked and kept sections of the economy going while a new generation got higher education in just about all fields.
Thanks for your input. So in the long term there is hope for Venezuela, I am less pessimistic now. In Brazil and (specially) Argentina, the parties in power (PT and FPV, respectively) are terribly corrupt. Argentina really is a lost case, the party in power interested only in remaining there to steal more and more. The country is heading to collapse again. Anyway, Argentina was never really part of the South American resistance, Peronists only talk about nationalism but always reaches agreement with the Empire, and is completely irrelevant since the 70’s in global politics (only appeared briefly in the early 80’s due to the stupid war for the Malvinas islands).