Zamir Awan for The Saker Blog
Iran’s response to the assassination of its top General Qasim Suleimani in Baghdad attack by the US has created more panic. The situation is more uncertain, instable and rather confusing. Rumors and fake news are dominating the region. Economic activities suffered a lot, the stock exchange has witnessed drop-down, oil price seems going upward. Many people are traveling out of this region to safer destinations. Recent tension between the US and Iran is alarming and extremely dangerous, not only for the whole region but also globally, especially for Pakistan. US-Iran relations were soared since 1979’s revolution. Since then there was a proxy war between the US and Iran, where Israel was the catalyst. But in recent days, the tension has climaxed to a seriously dangerous situation. There are fears of direct confrontation or enhanced indirect confrontation between the US and Iran.
It might have an adverse impact on the whole region, globally and neighboring countries. Especially Pakistan may suffer much more. Pakistan is suffering due to the Afghan situation for the last 4 decades. Where Pakistan suffered 80,000 precious lives including 7,000 personnel of armed forces. An economic loss of estimated US Dollars 250 billion, in addition to huge intangible deterioration in the form of extremism, intolerance, terrorism, etc. Drug culture and gun culture was an additional reward of the Afghan war. Any new challenges due to the Iran situation may harm Pakistan even much more. Hope world should learn from Pakistan’s experience instead of going through a new experience.
The immediate impact may be the influx of refugees. A similar situation arose, in 1979, at the time of revolution in Iran, a huge number of Iranian refugees entered Pakistan. Pakistan has not forgotten the bitter experience of hosting Afghan refugees, which number almost 5 million at peak time. The international community extends assistance in the beginning but gradually reduces its role. Pakistan cannot afford alone any more burden. Pakistan’s ailing economy cannot support any additional burden at all.
Secretary of state spoke to Army Chief of Pakistan to exchange views on the latest development of the region. Pakistan has already declared its position that Pakistan is a peace loving-nation and very well matures. We are a responsible state. Pakistan’s visionary leadership based on consensus has decided to support any peace initiative from any platform. Pakistan believes in the UN Charter and respects the UN Charter. Pakistan wanted the resolve all disputes politically and diplomatically under the guidelines set under the UN Charter. Pakistan hopes the international community may strengthen the UN and the UN may come forward to resolve all disputes all around the globe. However, the 220 million people of Pakistan based on consensus, decided to not support any side in War but extends full support to a peaceful resolution. Pakistan ensures, its soil will not use against any other country at all.
It should be understood that Iran is a Shi’a majority country, while in Pakistan, Shi’a has a considerable existence. By population, may only 25% are Shi’as, but they are well educated, well placed in the society, especially in the key positions in the Government. Economically, they are rich and very well connected with each other. Over-all weight, they might be almost 50%. Any awkward situation in Iran may also have direct social unrest in Pakistan too. There exists enormous pressure on Pakistan at the domestic front as well as international from. But, visionary leadership has declared to side with peace only.
Although Pakistan enjoys very close relations with the Arab World, Iran, being next-door neighbor, have even much more important for Pakistan. It is worth mentioning that the US and Iran do not have diplomatic relations. While Pakistan protects Iran’s interests in the US and Switzerland Protects US interests in Iran. Pakistan Embassy in Washington DC and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran are playing very important roles. Pakistan has been playing a similar role in the past too.
The US may exert more pressure on Pakistan, against Iran, Similarly, the Arab World may also push Pakistan against Iran. But, Pakistan cannot be a party with either of them. Pakistan needs to keep its neutral role or bridge between them. It will be rather a hard task. However, Pakistan cannot afford enmity with either of them. Pakistan played an important role in the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the US in the 1970s. Pakistan played a vital role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table in the Afghan Peace process. The US not only acknowledges the positive role of Pakistan but also admires. Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Tehran and Riyadh last month in efforts to defuse tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan may be a comparatively small country, with a poor economy, but possess the pivotal strategic location in the region. The US achieved its strategic goals during the cold war era and its war on terror with the vital support of Pakistan. Since the US has written-off Pakistan in 2011, the US has realized it cannot achieve its strategic goals in this part of the world. This is well understood by the US leadership, especially military leadership.
On the other hand, India a traditional rival of Pakistan may play a dirty role in this complex situation, especially against Pakistan too. In fact, India has signed the “Major Defense Partner” (MDP) agreement with the US. In return, India has been benefitted by US economic Assistance, Transfer of technology, Hi-tech, Weapons, political support, diplomatic support, etc. India has become the second-largest beneficiary of US assistance after Israel. India has also developed very close preferential relations with Israel. Israel-Iran is the worst enemy to each other. The US has replaced Pakistan with India in this region as “MDP”. Is India have that capacity? Will India meets the US expectation at a critical time? Can the US depend on India? Let the time will decide, let’s wait and see.
US has allowed India to import Iranian Oil, an exception to sanctions imposed by the US itself. India was planned to penetrate deep into Iran with the purposely. India is building Chahbahar Seaport for Iran and engaged in building the railways & Roads network in the length and breadth of Iran. India may be assigned a dirty task due to its presence in almost all parts of Iran. That is “Ground Intelligence”. Indian intelligence has already present everywhere inside Iran and well aware of everything inside Iran. Any military action might need ground intelligence. For which, India has already well placed. It will give India an additional edge and India may avail this opportunity to harm Pakistan too.
Over-all any confrontation in the oil-rich region may harm the global economy or might change the whole scenario of geopolitics. Middle-East is a major supplier of Energy (Oil and Gas) and fulfills almost 70% of the international demand. While the Energy consumer countries like Japan, China, Europe, all may suffer in the form of shortage of Energy and hike in price. There will be a global economic recession if the tension is not diffused.
Frankly speaking, the US act of assassination is an open violation of the UN Charter, International Law, and the US Law as Congress was bypassed. Suppose, if Iran has done a similar act and assassinated any other high-value target in America or Europe, what will be the world’s reaction. Should not be a similar reaction be expected from the International Community???
Millions of people took part in mourning of late General Qasim Suleimani in Iran, the anger of Iranian can be understood. There is huge pressure on the leadership in Iran for a response. However, if Iran keeps silence and may not take reciprocate action, will the US not encouraged to do a similar act again and again???
Russia and China, may not accept US influence in this region. The sudden visit of Russian President Putin to Syria is a strong message for the US. In fact, the US is not having any local support in this region. Some of the Governments of this region may maintain very good diplomatic of economic ties with the US, but due to anti-Muslim action of the US during the last couple of decades has created anti-America sentiments among the masses in this region. It is worth mentioning that there are 57 Muslim countries, around 2 billion Muslims live in this world spread all over the globe, possess 70 % of natural resources, especially energy reserves, yet politically divided and not united and suffering humiliation. Roughly 12 million Muslim has been killed during the last couple of decades, around 70 million Muslims were forced to leave their houses, either to take refuge in their own country at safe places or take asylum in the Western world. Muslims are humiliated, discriminated and targeted in the Western world in routine life. War cannot be a win with 2 trillion dollar’s weapons if it is true, the Afghan war should be considered the latest example. A nation “We lie, we cheat, we steal” cannot win a war against the will of masses. It is time to think calmly and smartly!
American Congress and citizens are divided on the “Iran War”. Allies are also not in full support of the “Iran War”. Regional environments are not in the US favor, strong resistance from Russia and China is also possible (just like in Syria). Pakistan’s geopolitical location is the pivot and may face more severe challenges. While Pakistan was struggling its survival after 4 decades of Afghan mesh, it may not be ready to face such big challenges foreseen from US-Iran tension.
The international community may act and may act swiftly before it is too late. Save the precious human lives, avert the bloodshed and proactively promote global peace, which is need of time. All Peace-Loving individuals and nations, may raise their voice for Peace and struggle hard to avert any big disaster.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomate), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
The US needs and is constructing a new Long War. It will be through Pakistan (to stop China) and Iran.
As the Taliban get an upper hand in Afghanistan, that war will recede in importance. But that depends on the survivability of ISIS-Uyghur fighters the US is trying to save from liquidation in Idlib. US wants war at the border of China. Staging from Afghanistan into China (Xinjiang) and Central Asia stans is the perfect launch pad.
But, a wider war, like exists now through the Middle East (Iran, Iraq,Syria, Lebanon (Golan) and Palestine) and another across North Africa and a third across the Sahel is the model the US sees with delight for South Asia. Pakistan, moving toward China and toward Russia, leaving the US sphere, makes it a perfect target for more chaos and the new long war.
Extraordinarily written article.
So a Paki ex-diplomat is paranoid about “India” and speaks of countries banding together solely on the basis of them being “Muslim countries” – Wow! what a surprise.
Forget opinion, let’s stick to facts – let’s just see how well India, Israel, China, or ANY other muslim country (not invaded by the U.S.) has done by ANY economic/political metric. Where does Pakistan (a country of 220 million people) really stand?
As someone rightly said, most countries have an Army, Pakistan is the only one where the Army has a country!
– countries banding together solely on the basis of them being “Muslim countries”
What is wrong with that exactly?
– As someone rightly said, most countries have an Army, Pakistan is the only one where the Army has a country!
This is a quote from a book. And it’s true. So what exactly? Our army defines our nation and will continue to do so until our newborn nation matures in many many ways. That India to this day expects and does everything to ensure we break up, the fact is, even if we do break apart, we will never agree to being part of a greater India as they want. We’d rather be ruled by the Afghans or the Iranians. That is a feeling shared by us and our Kashmiri kin.
@ Ali
… ” never agree to being part … “…
Nice example of old imperial wisdom : ” Divide et Impera “….
Coluld you remind us on role of british empire in killing Ghandi ?
Work of mi6 ? Hired hand , before invention of drones ?
Kill all peacemakers ? Ghandi walked almost naked. Poor politician ?
Why was ghandi killed then ?
Because he wanted pakistan separated from india , or otherwise ?
What about newborn nation ?
Born from whom ? Who were mother and father ? Old parents , new baby ?
And who created baby to be newborn ?
And who creates newborn nations nowdays ?
Remember :
Divide et impera !
And rule those tiny newborn nations all ?
Easier to rule 10 small state than one large one ? Number of united nations up ?
One ring to rule all whole world ? To bind them in new world order.
What’s it matter what the British wanted?
WE wanted independence. We did not want to be part of India. We want to govern ourselves and live the way we want on the land that our ancestors lived on. We haven’t taken anything from anyone. We don’t want anyone to take what is and has ALWAYS been OURS.
Everything else is irrelevant.
who would have thought, that it is and has always been about Pakistan. Imagine one´s surprise to find that out. Then again where is Pakistan and Palestine, where is Pakistan and Yemen, where is Pakistan and Syria, were is Pakistan and Lebanon, where is Pakistan and Iraq, where is Pakistan and the whorehouse of Saud? Oh wait, there it is Pakistan and the whorehouse of Saud side by side. I wonder how many muslim nations the saudi have destroyed so far? But remember it is all about Pakistan. What a load of tragic comedy!
The misunderstanding, knowledge, and reality as it pertains to Pakistan is always lacking, even in websites such as this having some of the most intelligent readers. But knowledge alone is not enough at times.
“Verily thou wilt not be able to have patience with me!”
“And how canst thou have patience about things about which thy understanding is not complete?”
Thank you saker for posting this article on your site. Pakistan is the one country that will only be understood as history unfolds. Pakistan and Russia are both somewhat of an enigma.
Their behavior cannot be understood with secular knowledge alone.
Not really H. People are not blind and Pakistan is no enigma or the joker at the table. It is what it is and a couple of quotes can not change that. People are not as dumb as, you think they are either. It is 2020 and we have all heard a thing or two about what is going on in this world. Sorry but Pakistan is irrelevant at best,.And wahhabi money can not buy us all understanding. You are on the wrong side of history, that is if you are remembered for anything but taliban. Being the errandboy of the whorehouse of saud is no badge of honor!
“And watch and wait; we are also watching and waiting.’
Pakistan may be many things but irrelevant is not one of them! The AngloZionist ruling elite does not consider Pakistan irrelevant. Oh how I wish she was irrelevant.
@ H
Interesting …. Quotations from Bible to describe staus and role of pakistan.
Is pakistan then christian country , or if it was christian country ?
It seem their title is islamic state of pakistan ?
Among three other islamic states in world.
Explicit islamic ! But why explicit ?
To strenghten up muslim fight over christans ?
As it seems those so called ” imigrants ” flooding europe nowdays are all muslims ?
Is not it also interesting ? Imigrants from afganistan and pakistan , sudan , angola all of them heading to former christian countries of europe
, muslims to outnumber christians ?
Islamic states of europe ?
Islamic germany ? Islamic france ? Islamic italy ? Islamic poland ?
And who organizes it all ? Not strangely enough _ jews_khazars !
Why would khazar_jew soros organize muslims to overflow europe ?
Why there is not state , like as … Islamic state of saudi arabia ? Islamic state egypt?
And quotes from bible ? There were not suitable quotes from quran , for islam state
And whoever is blind in this world, will be blind in the Hereafter, and more astray from the Path.
@ Minute by Minute
…. ” of saud ” … Or more correctly ” saud of ” … since ,
Mi6 created … Saudi kingdom … ruled by jews ( khasars )… also ,
Mi6 created … Israel republic … ruled by jews ( khasars ) … also ,
Mi6 created … USA federation … ruled by jews ( khasars ) … also ,
Mi6 created … … ruled by jews ( khasars )… also ,
Mi 6 … in process of creation ( re/creation ) … ukraine …
on lands of old khasar state…. long ago desintegrated vy rusian rulers , but now ,
Ukraine is destined to be new recognised khasar state ,
khasars now not hiding behind jews name …
… ” how many muslim nations … saudi have destroyed so far … ” …
Since saudi rulers are khasars ( pretending to be jews ) , and since they are not arabs , why should they care about muslim nations … when they are just pretending to be arabs , and pretending to be rulers , but when boss is behind mi6 desks…
Where does money saudis earn from oil go ?… London , new york !? To khasars.
P.S. … you may also ask yourself who created pakistan , and who really rules them..
( could you think of khasars ? , maybe ? Surely ? )…
Thank you for this article professor.
Yes, unfortunately Pakistan will be affected by any war on Iran as you say through reason of demography and geography.
Pakistan entered the US’s orbit during the Cold War when both were against the Communist Soviet Union especially after Soviet troops were invited into Afghanistan. I don’t know how difficult it would be for Pakistan to get out of that orbit. But times have changed and I think it would serve Pakistan better to realign to a multipolar worldview and work closer with Russia — it’s already close to PRC.
PM Imran Khan is trying to kick start Pakistan’s sputtering economy and I sincerely hope he succeeds. That’s the only way to make Pakistan less dependent on Saudi/Arab money, and more independent in its foreign policy.
The point missed by the respected author that all this suffering (religious extremism, accompanying corruption at all levels of the government specially the military!) was a consequence of the choices that Pakistani ruling elites took without foresight and without forward impact considerations on civil society. I am afraid that current rulers have learnt anything from their disaster decisions of the immediate past. The Dollars and Riyals will again be the determining factors without any consideration to the future of the civil society and the viability of even the existence of the country.
Pakistan ensures, its soil will not use against any other country at all.
So the U.S. won’t be able to attack Iran from Pakistani soil. That is good news. If all the neighbors of Iran reject the U.S. maybe we won’t have World War III.
That is “Ground Intelligence”. Indian intelligence has already present everywhere inside Iran and well aware of everything inside Iran. Any military action might need ground intelligence. For which, India has already well placed. It will give India an additional edge and India may avail this opportunity to harm Pakistan too.
However, India needs Iran’s oil. If the Indians help Americans attack Iran, will Iran help India?
Some Indians may think they could help the U.S. and then receive a share of loot when the U.S. wins, but in that case India is unlikely to benefit. A total U.S. victory over Iran, enabling the Americans to steal Iran’s oil, is extremely improbable. The U.S. would almost certainly have to destroy the whole Persian country, including the oil installations, before it can claim a victory. Which means that even if the U.S. “wins”, the Indians are likely to get less oil than they do now.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz will be among the first casualties of a war between the U.S. and Iran. With the flow of Saudi (and Kuwaiti) oil cut to nearly zero, the world will suffer an economic shock it can ill afford — that India can afford even less in its current critical stage of development.
So India’s best move is to stay neutral, hoping that the war never starts.
All Peace-Loving individuals and nations, may raise their voice for Peace and struggle hard to avert any big disaster.
Indeed.
I humbly apologise for discussing in the following a slightly different matter than the crisis perpetuated by the United States in regard to Iran–Irak respectively the whole ME. But the very basis from which the respected author draws his argument, i.e. contemporary Pakistan to be a nation-state of any moral and ethical grounding begs to be objected.
First, however, and with all due respect, but what meets the eye is that for a professor and ex-Diplomate the authors command of the English language seems to be rather wanting (owing to third-party translation, may be?). Thus, some parts of the text elude proper context and meaning.
Secondly, and what struck me most, are the authors claims that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan – in his opinion – represents to be a peace-loving, mature, and responsible country, guided by “visionary leadership”, as well as believing in and respecting the UN-charter.
What a farce!
I really wonder, whether as long as any country’s legal framework contains legislation as the 1974 Second Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan, or the Ordinance XX, she should claim any of the above.
Says Wikipedia (i.a.): “Ordinance XX is a legal ordinance of the Government of Pakistan that was promulgated under the regime of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq on 26 April 1984 and is meant to prohibit the practice of Islam and the usage of Islamic terms and titles for the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community. The ordinance bars Ahmadi Muslims, who are deemed non-Muslims under the Pakistani constitution, from publicly practising the Islamic faith and also disallows them from using any Islamic texts for praying purposes. It is in addition to – but separate from – the 1974 Second Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan. While the Second Amendment declared that Ahmadis are non-Muslims, the Ordinance prohibits Ahmadis from identifying themselves as Muslims. The ordinance also debars Ahmadis from the use of any honorific titles and modes of address deemed specific to the Islamic community such as the greeting “Assalam-o-alaikum” (peace be upon you), reciting the Kalima or the Shahada (the islamic credo, repectively declaring belief in the oneness of God and the prophethood of Muhammad) etc., from building mosques and calling a mosque “mosque”, calling the Adhan (call to prayer), from undertaking Muslim modes of worship, from worshipping in non-Ahmadi mosques or public prayer rooms, and from making any citations from the Quran and Prophet Muhammad’s hadith (traditions/sayings). Punishment for anyone convicted of doing any of the above is imprisonment of up to three years and a fine or even the death penalty.”
Since Pakistans inauguration countless members of the Ahmadiyya Community have been slaughtered and butchered in broad daylight, see e.g. the Wikipedia entry about the “2010 Lahore mosque massacre”, when during Friday prayers 94 Ahmadi-Muslims were killed and more than 120 injured, the attackers pleading to just act in accordance with the legal framework as mentioned above. More could be found under “Persecution of Ahmadis” in Wikipedia.
While such legislation and political persecution has not been discarded by Pakistans “visionary leadership”, one wonders whether todays Islamic Republic of Pakistan truly can be counted among the civilised world, or whether it wouldn’t be much more appropriate to denote Pakistan as an entity still very much at home in the Dark Ages.
To further allege that the root-cause of Pakistans contemporary problems originates from the decades old Afghan tragedy, is hypocrisy of the highest order. Alas, the truth of this matter lies in the existence of Maududiism meeting Wahabism, having been exported from India and Saudi-Arabia into the newly created Land of the Pure – in order to fight and destroy this very newborn entity – and Ahmadiyya (being amongst the most fervent supporters of an independent country for Muslims of the Indian subcontinent – one of their foremost members being Sir Muhammad Zafrulla Khan, lateron the first foreign minister of Pakistan) to embody their selected scapegoat.
In short, honest actions cannot spring forth from dishonest pretences. What good can come forth from a people permitting their basic legislation to be based on savageness, barbarity, and clearcut racism, I wonder.
To return to the matter under discussion, I dare say that as so far as the author claims Pakistan to possess any viable choice to act independently and/or being able to ensure that its soil will not be used against any other country, represents nothing more than wishful thinking. At the latest since Sir Ghulam Muhammad, Pakistan may proudly count itself amongst US-America’s pawns. The US – or for that its sidekick Saudi Arabia – speaks and Pakistan simply jumps. Thus, any such claim as being forwarded by the author is merely self-delusional and reflects failed conjectures – that is IMHO.
The Iran and US conflict is not over yet. The tension will continue to contain Iran but one thing is sure that US will not directly attack Iran which is wishful thinking of Israel and KSA.
The US is well aware that Iranian “assets” in middle East and around the globe can make substantial damage to US interest outside the USA.
I fully agree with the writer’s opinion regarding uncertainty at the borders of Pakistan. As per mine, yes we should keep away from any other war that may leave more division in our society. Like others we must play our role to release any possible tension in an honourable and impartial way. At the same time, Pakistan should continue the ongoing efforts for the unity of Muslims aw well.
Situation well described. In fact US action of killing Iranian General was certainly violation of international law. Any dispute should have been resolved through UN. For the decades US is following the policy of might is right. Previously at least UN used to provide US the required political support and legal coverage but now US considers itself above any law or ethics. This attitude is highly dangerous for global peace.
Certainly India is very clever and takes advantage of any opportunity against Muslims and specially against Pakistan but it can not come to expectations of US to counter China in region.
Pakistan is going well while staying neutral in recent conflict.
The main point that has been highlighted is avoiding sectarian conflict which some western powers would like to happen. This may also be taken with pinch of salt by some GCC states as beneficial to their cause.Pakistan can’t ignore Iran altogether so as to keep her ties with GCC States and specially KSA and UAE.In case USA decides to invade Iran and make her a colony like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. We don’t have the power to fight US and Nato but we can give Iranians humanitarian aid and if they cross as refugees accept them honorably.