Oh boy, today is a bad day for sure. First, the Russian Central Bank has suddenly raised its interest rates from 10,5% to 17%. I am dubious that this will do much for the Ruble (currently in free fall for many different reasons) but, boy, will that slam the breaks on a Russian economy which needs acceleration! Not being an expert myself (I did get an MA in International Economics, but that was 30 years ago), I hope to post an expert opinion about that soon, so I will spare you my own half-ignorant guessing about what could happen next. But from my admittedly amateur point of view, it sure looks to me like this decision will do no good and lots of harm.
Then there is more ugly infighting in Novorussia. To make a long story short, Motorola was seen shaking hands with the commander of the Ukies at the Donetsk airport. His gesture, which was an act of officer courtesy, was instantly misrepresented and a ugly PR campaign to trash him was initiated. The only bright side to this ugly situation was the reaction of Givi who spoke in defense of his friend. See for yourself:
[Sidebar: the more I see of Givi, the more I like him. He looks awfully young and even innocent, in a good way, but so far I believe that he as shown himself in a very positive light. I have to admit that I fear for him, as he is playing a very dangerous game with a lot of very experienced and very evil people competing against him]
Yet again we see that the most formidable enemy or Russia is not in the USA or London, but inside Russia. I don’t see how Putin can take more of this without taking some kind of strong action. I don’t mean a coup, of course, but heads need to start rolling (figuratively, of course). The 5th column needs to be smacked down before or Putin will be in danger himself.
As for the rump-Ukraine, bad stuff is happening there too. The latest budget proposed by the junta is a recipe for a nightmare: massive social cuts combined with basically all the available money for the military and internal security. It seems unlikely to me that this could indicate anything else but a firm resolve to resume hostilities and repressions.
I am getting this really bad “pre-explosion” feeling which I hate so much and which I usually experience before something bad happens. By the way, I saw the info about a nuclear false flag, the info about the Israelis planning to re-settle Khazaria and about the airports being shut down in eastern Ukraine. I don’t buy the first two *at all*, as for the airports this could mean that the Ukie military might want to use them to rapidly bring in reinforcement of troops and equipment, possibly with NATO assistance. Again, this is consistent with the “Ukies will soon attack” hypothesis. This might also be away of provoking Russia which might be forced to destroy these airports in order to prevent a sudden surge of Ukie forces in support of an attack on Novorussia. Not good.
I am still convinced that the AngloZionists are trying to force Russia to intervene in the Ukraine as this is their last hope to trigger a crisis big enough to mobilize as much as the world as possible against Europe. Just like the sanctions, these latest moves by the Empire would not be so dangerous if Russia was not ruled by two groups fighting for power, one of which is apparently hell-bent on sabotage.
I sure hope that the Eurasian Sovereignists will strike back soon or things will get very bad very soon.
The Saker
Interview with operator of Buk that “allegedly downed” the MH17
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=635347086569800&set=vb.617555095015666&type=2&theater
Why is that very bad news?
Even recognition of
“my own half-ignorant guessing about what could happen next”
is good news.
The Putin-demonization machinery is working full blast. Look at this:
http://www.bruceonpolitics.com/2014/12/16/putin-worst-thing-happen-russia/
I would not be surprised if there is an assassination attempt.
[from Blue]
I just saw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nflZSjiofr8
Russia Pivots to Eurasia for Trade and Military Alliances
Michael Hudson speaking at Real News
Ruble is Russian currency so it fall does not affect Russian economy that much, which become less dependent on dollars. Dr. Hudson also saying that China, and other nations are moving away from dollar and towards each other.
I don’t know what the interst hike is going to do, for good or bad, partly because I’m out my depth with this aspect, but also because the situation is complicated by the circumstances and the pill in various directions, such as the pivot towards CHina, BRICS, and the East, the US trying to break Europe from Russia, doing Europe harm while trying to take control, or even effectively destroy it as a world power pole, and the possibly near term collapse of not just the US economy and dollar but the world economy for any who are not sufficiently insulated (there might be good bargains when shopping at Walmart but it’s not good to be there when its roof caves in).
My mind is too burned out from trying to load both Linux and XP on my new machine to be able to deal with complexity like this. Pivot to China; pivot to Linux — both filled with unexpected difficulties?
jeez saker you should really get back to your economics studies. russian cb does good job, its the rate of shorts thats been upped to kill specs, no company at al needs them none
It seems that the Russian ruble has been blocked from trading any further.
This is a good development if true. It is in fact an excellent opportunity to impose capital controls and design a new Russian monetary policy.
I cannot repeat it often enough: Tyler Durden (who seems to be 99% of what ZH is) is a big fan of Russia and always tries to report in a Russia-friendly and Anti-Zionist manner. That’s btw. also the reason, why RT’s Max Keiser show quote ZH all the time, over and over.
ZeroHedge is also informative and QUICK.
Here the latest:
OIL, RUSSIA, RATES, CAPITAL CONTROLS…ARMAGEDDON? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/oil-russia-rates-capital-controlsarmageddon-0
“The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble”
Tyler Durden’s picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2014 07:56 -0500
Capital Markets
Twitter
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inShare3
*****FROM December 17th 8am EST on trading of USD/RUB WILL BE DISCONTINUED*****
Dear Russian Ruble traders, please find a different sandbox, because “evil speculators” will no longer be tolerated, first at Forex Capital Markets and soon, everywhere else.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/usdrub-pair-will-be-discontinued-due-recent-instability-russian-ruble
Meanwhile the initial loss of 20% is now back to a day-over-day loss of “only” 10% at this moment:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=usdrub=X
USD/RUB (USDRUB=X)
-CCY Watchlist
72.3030 Up 6.7200(10.25%) 10:02AM EST
Well, or BAD (for World-Peace) : Not only BRICS currencies are losing, but the pair EURUAH is slowly but steadily approaching the psychologically important 1 EUR == 20UAH mark:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=euruah=X
EUR/UAH (EURUAH=X)
-CCY Watchlist
19.8053 Up 0.1335(0.68%) 10:07AM EST
The last time the UAH was that weak was during heavy war in Novorossiya, when the West claimed “Russian invasion happened”. And at the time the EUR was still worth 1.30 USD, rather than only the current 1.24 USD. So it is no exaggeration: The Hrywna never was as weak as now. This doesn’t surprise, because the West is not paying as much as Porky and Yatz need for their dschungle camp parties.
And in fact, as the USD is on a 5 year high at the moment, the USDUAH pair is sloooowly (but unstoppably) reaching all-time records: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDUAH%3DX+Interactive#symbol=USDUAH=X;range=2y
USD/UAH (USDUAH=X)
15.8238 +0.0136(0.09%)
I cannot even say that I’m happy to see that. My ex-wife in Ukraine, but also MILLIONS of innocent West-Ukrainians may not even support Kiev at all. But they all suffer. And if the hrywna crashes, then there will be anarchy and Syrian-style bloodshed all over Ukraine, Russia and Europe. I have never been as sad in my life. I want back to Soviet times here in East-Berlin:
Berlin, Hauptstadt der DDR Teil 1 / Берлин, ГДР https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZdxuOK3YuE
Guten Tag, Zollkontrolle der DDR! 1/2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FaevotLAnI
I grew up in East-Berlin, 1 km east of the Berlin Wall. And it had always been my biggest wish for my life to ever visit the West, but that appeared to never happen in 1000 years. Well, back then I was a little child believing all the magic western promises.
Communism was the happiest time of my life, and hundreds of millions (of the former Eastern bloc) meanwhile agree with me.
THE WEST has lied to us, betrayed us, ridiculed us, defamed us, robbed us off. Now it is even MURDERING us.
Time has come to finally DEFEND OURSELVES
TOGETHER AGAINST NATO-AGGRESSION!
It is no joke: I miss the Berlin Wall! It was not a lie: It was really there for our protection, rather than to steal us our freedoms.
Motorola and some of the people in Novorussia, I think, are trying to get the Ukrainians to realize the real enemy is in Kiev. The man is a hero and does not want war but he will fight if he has to.
I have always thought the Russian peoples deserved better leaders than they have had.And that in all era’s of their history (also true of most of the world,to be fair).But I really can’t understand those today.All the fear of doing the right thing in Ukraine is BS.From the start if Russia had sponsored a government in exile against the junta.Supported the rebellion in the east fully,none of this crisis would have developed to the disaster we have today.All the talk of the “world’s reaction” is more BS.The US has invaded countless countries in the past decades with no “world reaction”.China crushed a color revolution at Tiananmen Square,and this year surpassed the US as the worlds largest economy.So much for the “world’s reaction”.Israel holds Palestine in a death grip,and bombs helpless people in Gaza.And I’m still waiting for the “world’s reaction”.The fact is that no matter if Russia did the right thing in Ukraine or not they would face sanctions and a new cold war.That was coming either way.So by showing weakness didn’t help.And may have hurt instead.Now we are at a state where either they do something or they need to get kneepads ready for kneeling to the West.We are seeing the West building up an Russophobic Ukraine,ethnically cleansing Russians and Russian speakers from their land.And plotting to militarize the countries around Russia to be ready in case they want to actually attack Russia.While trying to cribble Russia’s economy with an economic war.And Russia does little about it.If they lose Ukraine to the fascists I think Putin is gone.I don’t see him surviving the anger of the patriots in Russia that will descend on him.Instead of worrying over upsetting his enemies he needs to worry more over losing his friends love.If he is so worried about “seeming” to be a dictator.How does he think he can hold onto power with millions of patriots in Russia coming for him calling him a traitor (a rumor that is spreading in Russia from what I hear).
Uncle Bob
I read on here yesterday that to replace the CB head was very difficult within the law.But one of the ways listed was if they resigned the post.Well today there was a story I saw that said she offered to resign.So either for whatever reason Putin doesn’t want to replace her.Or if he does here is his perfect chance.
Uncle Bob
Terry said…
Well, don’t panic yet, folks.
That was a great rundown on the USSR.I read much the same in college.And though not a Communist I have always thought that the current region “threw the baby out with the bathwater” after the collapse.The USSR being concerned with building up each region economically was an enormous plus in my book.As the geologist talked about in his article on Donbass yesterday.With some changes, they could have made major reforms to the system and come out much,much,better than today.I think that is one idea of the Eurasian Customs Union.To restore the economic connections that made those economies work,and I like it for that reason.Instead of being concerned with the well being of their peoples and countries, today’s rulers in Eastern Europe seem to not care less that millions of their peoples have to flee their countries to find work abroad to survive.While as in Bulgaria almost all their industry is gone.That is the fate Ukrainians face if the junta wins this civil war.One of the main reasons I support Novorossia and Russia so much.
Uncle Bob
Maybe here’s some good news – Pepe seems to think so.
http://commondreams.org/views/2014/12/16/east-vs-rest-chinas-eurasian-integration-vs-wests-empire-chaos
If Russia start to trade oil in Ruble won’t make a difference. As sone the Russian/foreign bank recive the money they are free to exchange to any currency. The current slaught
of the ruble is a combination of price fall in oil, sanctions and too many oligarks. The free trade that made the ruble strong some year ago. That allowed “rich” russians to go abroad and buy expensive stuff . Are now evil according to many. If you trust the market it will come to balance. As long Russia have foreign trade there will be a demand for ruble hence a value in foreign currency. The market will always reward those that have quality/skil and products and knowledge about economy. Russia is not a good example about economy. They have sold too many times at bottom prices. Maybe they will do it another time now. But a free market have to have same rules not privileges for some group (oligarks). There lies the problem to understand capitalism.
From Sweden
Givi is four years younger than Sasha Zakharchenko.
My guess, if there were a pool, is that he’s divorced and a father.
His greatest political skill is lying like a rug; he treats prying into his personal life as a duel and enjoys fencing with reporters. No comparison with Sasha, who blushes and stammers if he’s just groping for a more diplomatic way of putting something.
INVADE NOW?
Things are getting riper every day.
European opinion about the U.S. policy against Russia, “squeeze them to the last Euro,” is swinging fast, accelerating, it may be turning into a bandwagon.
The banksters revolt against the IMF pouring more money down a rathole was a great help. Now the “Donors’ Council” will go, I predict, the way of Mozgovoy’s Military Councils. Everybody will remember a dentist’s app’t that day they don’t want to miss. Bes has Kharkiv on the boil; Mariupol has backup handy if she’s up to the challenge.
It would be nice to see how many of those Bulats would change hands over the winter if an offer were made of $100,000 and a Russian passport each.
Apparently there are still some people in Ukraine n/w who don’t want their kids being taught to drink Russian babies’ blood. Maybe some significant resistance will show up beyond the Donbass.
There’s an unpaid debt from the USSR to Ukraine. Add to the “crimes of Stalin” a totally bungled, if even tried, de-Nazification after Yalta. Try, try again.
On the down side, the first EU sanctions expire this spring unless renewed. Putin might want to wait until he’s sure enough EU states are solidly against. Also, why is Lavrov playing kissy face with Poroshenko? Yatsenyuk has all the power. First thing the Rada did after the coup was transfer presidential powers to the prime minister’s office.
And the wild card: why is Kolomoisky setting his boys against Akhmetov? Is it a probe for a takeover?
LETHAL AID
Congress does not have any say in the conduct of wars. The President can deliver lethal aid to Ukraine any time he wants to. Congress can neither prevent it nor order it.
The law giving the President “permission” to do this is just a Christmas card. I’m expecting Obama to refuse to sign it on the grounds that it is unconstitutional and violates the separation of powers.
(It’s probably not a good sign that Obama has yet to do anything that I expected him to do.)
The truth will not sell newspapers. (Nothing will, but they’re still trying.) Who will click on a headline “Congress passes another pointless law”?
It appears the CB does try to support Russian companies. How many interest rates are there in Russia and can they really coexist? What has happened to Russian bond yields? They are crucial.
In order to prevent the restraining effect of the rate hike on the development of Russian projects, the regulator has kept unchanged special instruments and rates on them, the Central Bank chief said. “This relates to investment projects, project financing and projects aimed at supporting small and medium business and raw material exports,” she said.
http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/767145
Cassandra said…
“And the wild card: why is Kolomoisky setting his boys against Akhmetov? Is it a probe for a takeover?”
I read somewhere once before that they have had a feud for years.And despise each other.
Uncle Bob
Kolomoisky’s thugs have stopped s convoy of humanitarian aid from Akhmetov which, as a Ukrainian oligarch,he patriotically purchased in Ukraine. They won’t let it go into Donbass.
The trucks went back to somewhere with a warm hotel and are going to try again. The thugs said they’d shoot rather than let it through OR take the stuff for themselves – (oh the local village, they said actually).
Akhmetov’s steel mill got a contract just recently for the steel to make new tanks with (middle of next year delivery). Kolomoisky’s steel mill just has to lay off a lot of workers, who are all doing protests about it. K is having troubles with something else too, in Odessa, while the workers are demanding Kiev resume traded with Donbass to safeguard their jobs. K. hates A anyway and he’s getting all these protests because of the separatists, who A. is accused of helping….though he claims he just needs to keep his WORKERS alive, it’s all business. (Not true; he reputedly funded the battalion for the eventual prime minister).
Kolomoisky is starting to throw his weight around a bit much. His guys forced change of mayor in Poroshenko’s home town, causing him to have to retaliate in Zaporozhye (2nd town in Kolomoisky’s territory). This is probably how they always carry on, that’s why nobody runs the country.
LETHAL AID
Congress has to make a law to get the MONEY for it. Obama not signed yet, still. He’s waiting till everything is delivered, then he can sign anytime and off they go, more or less instantly there.
I think this is a big over reaction about the rouble. In Canada we promote a weak dollar as good for the manufacturing sector and exports and tourism that what Russia needs to do PR on in a big way. Oil has been way overpriced deliberately anyway it was planned by Cheney when his firm Haliburton came up with new fracking technology remember when he met all the oil people behind closed doors? At that time it was decided that they would also get an exemption on having to declare what cancerous chemicals they were using. So these wars in the ME keep Iranian Libyan Iraqi Syrian oil off the market and make shale gas and tarsands possible. Kock bro own 64% of Canadian tarsands and the texas refinery where it HAS to be proceesed. The IMF just announced they want to bring in the BRICS with equal voting rights and are doing so against the USA so Russia can’t be in that bad a shape or the West is in ever worse shape-that is what people are missing. Derrivative bust was just put on the shoulder’s of taxpayers in latest budget and bail in set to go off. Putin will Nationaize the Central Bank I HOPE come May 15th when they go off swift. Russia can provide it’s own long term interest free loans to itself for national development as it should be. Relax. And unless the EU smarten’s up and it appears that with this announcement by Lagarde and the visit by the French PM the EU is bailing on the US war plans and sanctions. Otherwise Russia has to go into Ukraine to protect nationals or evacuate all the Russian people will not forgive leaving Brothers and sisters to be slaughtered by Nazi-shale gas reserves there are a bust anyway not worth fighting for.
I don’t know if anyone has said this or not but during an interview with Graham Philips Givi said that he was 34 yrs. old and a bunch of other personal details. He seems to be mostly focussed on the task of establishing Novorossiya. Doesn’t seem to worry about the attention paid to him and is highly loyal to his men and his friends. There are several interviews on Philips’ Youtube channel with both Givi and Motorola. Also, Kazzura translated the explanation interview by Givi and added the background of the smear campaign. When I read that, I thought of what has happened to others previously who gain too much fame. Seems as though for some reason those are the people who are forced to leave, or go into the shadows after the mud starts flying.