JohnM has just posted an interesting commentary about the current events in Syria which, I think, deserves to be fully quoted. Here is what he wrote:
What I’m thinking is that as part of an Assad/Russia deal with the “non-Islamic rebels” (label is arbitrary and largely inaccurate) is this current battle between generally (this is a VERY fluid and fuzzy dividing line) the foreign fighters versus the local fighters. This deal (if it exists) is very nebulous, involves a lot of ifs and its desired outcome is a big Goat Rodeo. Just the sort of stuff they live on in this area (both geographic and on the foreign policy level).
As part of coming in from the cold, the local based fighters are told to clean their house (get rid of the foreign nut job extremists) and then a deal can be done. Amnesties, changes to the constitution (damn if I know what their constitution states or even if they have one), perhaps some kind of political structure akin to Lebanon, power sharing (probably limited and local considering the Kurds would have to be part of this) and to be capped off with elections for various and all positions would be on the table. This would be supervised by say Russia, China and the West in the form of say Germany and/or even the US.
Obama gets a capstone for his presidency (already in tatters, so he needs something). Russia gets prestige and some roll back of extremism on it’s southern flank. China gets business. Europe gets business and pipelines. Assad get’s some peace, some rehabilitation with whatever PR he wants or needs, depending on how he plays it. Saudi gets the stick up its ass.
What to watch over the next couple of months will be Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Saudi. Turkey will have to come visibly into line on this since I foresee some kind of federated Syria with a large amount of autonomy for the Kurds (very thorny problem). Turkey also has to deal with the foreign fighters on their soil, those running from Syria and the high horse they have climbed onto when they changed their foreign policy 2 to 3 years back. Jordan has kept a relatively low profile but has similar problems. Iraq will have to deal with the extremists (call them whatever you wish, they’re certifiable) coming back and raising Hell. Some of this is already manifesting itself (visibly to the western media at least) in Fallujah with the Tribes splitting overtly with AQI. Saudi (and Israel) will scream, pout and make threats. It remains to be seen how far they will push it.
Now my naturally pessimistic inclinations usually make me doubt any hypothesis in which a previously irrational party suddenly begins to act in a rational way. In this case, that previously irrational party would be both the FSA and the USA. However, this skepticism of mine is counter-balanced by the fact that the G8 agreement reached in Lough Erne had something very similar unambiguously spelled out. I quoted the text of the agreement on my blog, with the key words in red and my comments in blue:
We are deeply concerned by the growing threat from terrorism and extremism in Syria,and also by the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict. Syria must belong to all Syrians, including its minorities and all religious groups. We call on the Syrian authorities and opposition at the Geneva Conference jointly to commit to destroying and expelling from Syria all organisations and individuals affiliated to Al Qaeda, and any other non-state actors linked to terrorism (amazing sentence! The insurgency and the government of Syria are called upon to JOINTLY *destroy* the very forces which the USA wants to arm? That the government would be more than happy to destroy or expel al-Nusra is clear, but the FSA? Is the G8 really calling for a civil war inside the insurgency!?).
At the time nobody paid attention to these words, but the fact is that this text was signed by the G8 and that it seemed to suggest exactly what we see taking place today. Of course, what is taking place today might not be the result of the G8 agreement at all, but simply the inevitable outcome of a conflict whose dynamics are pretty much pre-ordained. If we assume that not all anti-Assad forces are composed of Takfiri reptiles and if we assume that Assad is willing to work with anybody sane (and I think that both of these assumptions are reasonable), then the logical thing would be for all non-Takfiri forces to join their efforts against the crazies. What is certain is that the Takfiri infection has now reached Fallujah in Iraq which, in turn, is putting in motion some kind of US/Iraqi/Iranian reaction as nobody can afford yielding a strategic city to a horde of crazed Wahabis. Objectively, the US, Iran and Syria should be working together against the Takfiri crazies throughout the region. The big “IF” is whether there is anybody with the brains and the balls in the White House to understand that and act on it.
Still, the notion is tempting, to say the least. I think of how often the Russians say “every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won’t have to kill in the Caucasus” and I wonder if somebody in Washington DC can come to terms with the notion that “every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won’t have to kill in Iraq/Afghanistan/Somalia/Yemen/etc.“.
I think that John is totally correct when he says that the impact of this change in dynamics (assuming it continues) on the neighboring countries will be crucial. Honestly, I think that the Turks acted with a mind-boggling stupidity and now they have to come to terms that there will be a price to pay for their arrogance. Their options are bad: either deal with the Kurds or deal with the Takfiri liver-eaters. I think that the better deal is obvious: deal with the Kurds. First, the Kurds are *rational* and then even have a common enemy (the Wahabi crazies). Second, it is about time for the Turks to finally begin seeking a long-term agreement with the Kurds or risk loosing it all. If the Turks really believe that they can “control” the Kurds by pure force they are kidding themselves and from a negotiating point of view they are much better off negotiating with the Kurds now, when the Kurds are also in a difficult situation, than later when the Kurds might find themselves in a strong position both in Iraq and in Syria (both of these regimes have indicated that are willing to work out a deal with the Kurds).
Anyway – am want to throw out this hypothesis: could it be that what we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances and that the next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?
If not – what do you think is going on?
Cheers,
The Saker
I guess one has to factor in the conflict between the AKP and Hizmet in Turkey and their factional dispute. I suspect that might have something to do with the events in Syria, although nobody says so. But as the AKP is more pro-Iran and pro negotiations with the PKK and Hizmet just the opposite…
What is more: The AKP hat long and not only diplomatic ties (mediations between Syria and Israel which nearly resulted in a peace treaty that was only stopped by Israels “cast lead”) but even private ties (families of Erdogan and Asad spending holidays together), it absolutely made no sense of giving up the “zero problem” foreign policy for actively participating in the overthrow of Asad. Without any gain but lots of new problems! Naming just one: The long-term problem of Turkey is to overcome the difficulties resulting from the genocide against the Armenians and to come to terms with the past and with neighbouring Armenia. Russia tried to mediate once in a while, and it could do so because of the partnership between Russia and Armenia.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/12/05/russia-and-armenia-strategic-partnership-given-new-impetus.html
But the really effective mediator would be Iran as the relations between Iran and Armenia are very tight. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Armenia%E2%80%93Iran_relations
It was obvious that Iran would be annoyed by Turkey’s help to Syrian rebels and would stop every negotiating effort concerning the relations Armenia-Turkey.
It simply made no sense. I always wondered if someone had put himself in a compromising position and could be blackmailed. And who would be doing the blackmailing and pushing in which direction and why?
Hello old auntie,
I can see you have more feel on the Turkish situation.
I have some evolving thoughts and wonder what you think. Some wander off into the Iraq side. Here they are:
Edrogan seems to have misplaced the reverse gear on his foreign policy vehicle. But he had best spend some effort finding it or his vehicle is speeding to a cliff. By most accounts he is an arrogant and opiniated SOB. But he was elected and polls (those I have seen) show him with strong support. Will he show some statesman qualities? Time will tell and I’m sure he has more information on the complexities of the situation than I. The question is the degree his emotions will color his decisions. He, his close family and his country is under a lot of pressure lately (financial, criminal investigations).
Maliki in Iraq has some political and military decisions to consider which require some finesse and diplomacy. I don’t see these as his strong points. Elections in May (I believe) give him an opportunity to shine if he plays his hand well. Can he do it? Damn if I know. But if he botches this, I would keep and eye on Muqtada al-Sadr. It would be interesting to see who comes calling on Muqtada and what they would discuss. I personally think he could be someone the Sunnis, Kurds and (of course) the Shia could work under. Of course, Iraq is such a dog’s breakfast, that even this wishful scenario ranks up there with the possibility that the tooth fairy will appear and make it alright.
I’m not so sanguine. The West has worked with and funded Islamic extremist groups – of which Al Quaeda and it’s various offshoots is only the latest manifestation – for decades. It’s a crucial part of western foreign policy. How can anyone determine whether an individual or organisation is ‘linked to Al Quaeda’ – it’s not like there’s some sort of membership list somewhere with people and groups setting up annual direct debits for their subscriptions. The west just wants to play the definitions game – if a rebel group is perceived as being helpful to western interests, it won’t have the Al Q label attached to it, no matter how extreme the ideology it espouses.
The phrase ‘non-state actors with terrorist connections’ refers to Hezbollah and I think the west is MUCH keener on their fighters leaving Syria than the Al Q ones.
And no, I cannot see Turkey being willing to make any real accommodation with the Kurds.
Sadly, I suspect Syria, like Iraq, is ruined beyond repair. On the principle that foreign policy is what foreign policy does, I think one has to consider that reducing these societies to chaos has been the aim along.
I think there is a bigger picture here. Syria is only a means to an end. From my point of view, it appears that Syria has essentially been put on the back burner vis-a-vis the regime’s (Anglo-zionism/EU/GCC) strategic vision. Syria was the back door to Iran. The regime has been effectively thwarted in this regard, so now it appears to be actively gearing up to “kick in the front door” – a large scale bombing campaign against Iran, and probably also against Hezbollah and Assad. And this would not be a simple assault on nuclear installations, but a full-scale bombardment designed to strategically cripple the Islamic Republic. But the catch is that the US will appear to be essentially dragged “inadvertently” into this conflagration: The treason-mongers in the zionist-occupied “US” Senate are preparing to pass a bill, albeit non-binding, which will in theory cede the war-making authority of the United States to the zionist entity. The Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013 reads, per section 2, “Sense of Congress,” (b)(5), “if the Government of Israel [sic] is compelled to take military action in legitimate self-defense [sic] against Iran’s nuclear weapon program, the United States Government should stand with Israel and provide, in accordance with the law of the United States and the constitutional responsibility of Congress to authorize the use of military force, diplomatic, military, and economic support to the Government of Israel in its defense of its territory, people, and existence.” We all know what “legitimate self defense” means here. Again, I have to point out that this language is non-binding but supposing the legislation is passed and the language adhered to, then the zionist entity will be free to engage the full war-making power of the United States against Iran at its leisure. The question is, if the zionists decide to launch an attack (say without overt Saudi complicity or US permission, implicit or explicit) using Iraqi airspace and mid-air refueling, will CENTCOM allow the zionist birds to fly or will CENTCOM down them? Say the US Congress DOES pass this monstrosity of a bill AND the White House intends to abide by the provisions of 2(b)(5) (because with a vote margin over 67 the White House would have prima facie political cover; “we’re only carrying out the will of the American people as expressed by their democratically-elected Senators”), theoretically, the Zionists would need to launch their attack (“legitimate self defense”) before US forces could be activated – but what if CENTCOM doesn’t allow the the zionist attack to even commence? In such a case, section 2(b)(5) is moot. If CENTCOM goes along with a zionist attack, then all bets are off and we will likely witness a full-scale conflagration ranging from the simple destruction of Iran all the way up to World War III including Russia and China. If Saud and the zionists “go it alone” they will likely use nukes, and again all bets are off. I understand I didn’t really address the question raised, but I think that Syria is a means to an end; if the regime can achieve that end, they might make a separate peace with Assad (after all, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that the regime actually cares about the parochial political affairs of Syria – except perhaps the GCC which is subordinate), at least until a more opportune time to remove him presents itself. The whole issue revolves around the CENTCOM commanders and White House inclinations, (1) will the White House go along with the Senate, and (2) in that case, will CENTCOM go along with the White House. As far as the actual situation in Syria, and to address the actual question posed, no one has proven to me to any satisfactory degree that there are any “moderates” operating there! Anyone who has taken up arms against the Assad government cannot be counted as a “moderate” in my view.
Could it be that what we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances and that the next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?
Quite possibly. Iran doesn’t need to be an enemy of the Anglo-American empire, and the US needs to withdraw to some extent from the overextended approach of today. Plus, the US may want to focus on East Asia.
There are too many pessimists in ZUSA, and they miss the bigger picture that the US is no longer a hyperpower.
By the way, why does Assad need to offer much more than an amnesty? The West and Saudis are not really in a position to drag this on that much longer.
Paul
One may think that the interests of Israel are the only things that matter. Clearly its primary interest is to bring about a situation which would enable Israel to attack anyone without incurring retaliation. It is a complicated game. So it is likely that maintaining and increasing the chaos in the region will continue until it reduces it to utter rubble.
WizOz
This is what i have been saying all along and non of this is new to Syrians i know, residing in Syria. Facts on the ground since well before the Syrian victory in al-Qusayr suggests that the “FSA” are joining the SAA by the droves or negotiating their safe return into the ranks to fight the foreign merc´s and the medieval monkey armies of Bandar bin Chimp, that´s logic. Assad will let the various fraction of simians finish off each other in the north,supporting this or that side by air strikes when it suits the strategy and then move in for an ultimate blow.The Kurds will be in as well, they are well integrated in the Syrian structure. The Americans seems to go on with their limited lethal and non-lethal support and CIA-training from Jordan in order to prop up any “moderates” (good luck with that) to bring to the negotiation table but that are either blown up before it reaches it´s recipients or abandoned to al-Qaeda, either way, they are lost. The incredible stupid Turks goes on with their support for Bandar bin Chimp´s armies & the Saudi´s(despite, i guess, an offer they normally shouldn’t refuse from Russia) and that will inevitably cost them any leverage they might have had as well as their neo-ottoman pipelinestan dreams, Erdogan, still facing popular unrest against his regime, is anxiously gazing at the lamp-posts. Turkey will remain the “sick man of Europe” for a foreseeable future thanks to him.
Mikhas.
As usual, you always have interesting analysis taking place on your blog Vineyard… much appreciation fir that… while alliances appear to be changing and shifts appear to be taking place, appearances can also be deceiving . I remain skeptical, partly because US intentions and alliances in the region have never been honorable, and maybe also because I am living in the middle of this mess and experiencing it …
The Kurds have big advantage in this complicated situation. Every conflict in middleeast is benefit to the Kurds.
Assad-FSA-ISIS conflict they get more weaker everyday. They can never be a threat for Kurds in short and long term.
In Turkey, Erdogan walks on thin ice. They cant risk to fight against Pkk. Kurds have cease fire with Erdogan and this is the only thing protects him from a coup. Turkey has bad relationship with both USA and Israel which is important. These countries were biggest supporter of Turkish-PKK conflict.
Russia and China is important actors in Syria too.They are interested in Kurds. USA ignored the Syria Kurds for a long time but Kurds did well on battlefield. Even KRG(Kurdish Regional Government) closed borders to Syria Kurds with an American demand.
All in all, there are more and more paradox in middle east like i stated. Whenever i think all of these seem to me miraculously for Kurds. Is god favoring the underdogs of middleeast?
@ JohnM
Well, there you have got me. Until let’s say three years ago I indeed thought I would comprehend Turkish politics quite well. I backpedalled from this flattering self-assessment since then. As I said, I can’t make heads or tails of it. Therefore I tried the idea that perhaps some outside forces with there own interests had exerted their influence – interests that are not coherent if looked upon from a Turkish standpoint. But don’t ask me who that may be. There are too many candidates.
Obviously Erdogan tries to turn around, but why did he give up on “zero problems with the neighbours” in the first place???
The talk of “Neo-Ottomanism” is simply nonsense, cheap propaganda in Western mass media, sorry. One mustn’t believe everything one reads. Although… “zero problems with the neighbours” was understood by Western media and think-tanks as “axis shift” and “drifting away from the West”. That would implicate that being in line with the West would mean to have conflicts with one’s neighbours. Interesting, isn’t it?
@ Fern
I mostly agree. Indeed, I would put one point even more forceful: The West has not only “worked with and funded Islamic extremist groups”, it pro-actively (to use this nonsensical modern term) poisoned children’s minds with “jihadi” ideology.
One example (of several!): The series of schoolbooks that were developed by the University of Nebraska and Omaha and funded and distributed by USAid: “In the twilight of the Cold War, the United States spent millions of dollars to supply Afghan schoolchildren with textbooks filled with violent images and militant Islamic teachings”. This sentence is from an article in the Washington Post titled “From U.S., the ABC’s of Jihad. Violent Soviet-Era Textbooks Complicate Afghan Education Efforts” by Joe Stephens and David B. Ottaway, dated March 23, 2002. It isn’t online on Washington Post’s website anymore but it excerpts can still be found on NewsRescue.com together with other informative articles on the same subject.
http://newsrescue.com/genesis-of-islamic-radicalism-the-us-textbook-project-that-taught-afghan-children-terror/#axzz2qBJUbRDM
The full text can be found on: http://emperors-clothes.com/news/abc.htm
There is more to this but this post is already too long. To draw a conclusion: “I think one has to consider that reducing these societies to chaos has been the aim along”. Yes, I am afraid that might be true. Just like the US policy during the Iran-Iraq war 1980-88.
whatever will happen, assad will not give up power in total. in fact history will repeat itself for syria, as with a strong russia only a strong regional power of syria can and WILL be manifested. kurds, turds I dont care – in the end all those who conspired against syria will loose. especially the local ones.
that is what I foresee.
http://rt.com/op-edge/iraq-army-al-qaeda-485/
Mindfriedo
I don’t believe in this scenario either.
Even if it were to pass, it’s only a temporary solution while the main goal, the Caspian Basin, reachable only through Iran, remains the ultimate goal. Iran has to understand that cozying up to the zionazis will not change anything; its throat will be cut regardless.
Hence, this is not a strategic shift, but a tactical step leading to a major cleanup of the bad economic situation in the west through a major war. Just measure the benefits vs. losses for the zionazis, and you’ll realize that everything works in their favor. A peace is out of the question simply because it gives them no chance to survive for too long. On the other hand, just repeating the holocaust game one more time is worth the price. The only puzzle in this to me is Russia.
Little OT, who can tell us more about this guy: Richard N. Coudenhove Kalergi [the godfather of the EU]?
A beautiful terrorist
http://www.abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=495137
Mindfriedo
@ Old Ez
Israel attacking Iran without provocation (we can argue whether a new false flag would work) is I think a low probability event (may have rose colored glasses here). I think that whatever lever Putin used to back off America on attacking Syria may be in play for any attack on Iran as well. There are elements of containment here. In the past, America (and the west) sought to contain Russia, China etc.. Now I think the shoe is on the other foot. Russia (though you could argue that more countries are involved, but Russia has the best “ropes”) seeks to contain a super power that is in the process of facing the realities of “Imperial Overreach” (I’m trying to be tactful). Russia also seeks to contain Israel (Zionist nut jobs on par with any Whahabbi nut job, as far as I’m concerned) which, unfortunately, has far to much influence in the corridors of American power structures. But the Zionists are getting increasingly desparate (and are not as strong militarily they purport to be), so watching the Zionists overplay their hand (and pounce on it) is on the table.
As for moderates in Syria….. “Where you stand on an issue depends on where you stand” and if I may repeat a real estate saying, it’s location, location, location.
@Fern….. and some others :)
I think we have a tendency to think in monolithic blocks. We say the west has this or that policy but what the reality is that there are threads (or bricks) to this rope (or wall) of a policy both internationally and within the governing structures as well. I think that the thinking in the Pentagon varies from thinking in the Senate (whether they think is up in the air, mostly hot) and in the State Department, for example. We group the rebels for the sake of simplicity of argument overlooking at our peril that they are individuals. Some are stupid, some are smart, some are old, many are young but there are key leaders that are important pivots that need to be reached and swayed.
The Kurds: I think that the Kurds have partially reached a defacto goal of a self governing homeland. Maliki (Iraq) has largely resigned himself to this, probably because he has so much more problems in Anbar with the Sunni tribes and AQI. This doesn’t mean he’ll stay resigned but facts on the ground will be hard to change. And would it be worth the effort to even attempt to change things later. Iran seems to be quiet on the Kurd front as well. This may be a case of silence gives assent. If there ever was an actual conference with Syria, Iraq and Iran (Turkey should be in this group but I’m ommitting it because as The Saker (heartily agree) said of their “mind-boggling stupidity”) with the Kurdish leadership, fine points of Kurdish self governance could be ironed out. I give this propability a low chance. More likely, we will see quiet back room diplomacy setting out areas of control bilaterally with the local Kurdish tribes (authorities?). The Kurds have been screwed so often on this that they probably will accept this. So I agree with the Saker that “we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances”.
Ah, well, let’s not forget that Saladin (1137/1138 – March 4, 1193)was of Kurdish origin :-)
More madness
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/01/08/fallujahs-lessons-for-afghanistan/
http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/01/09/fallujah-obama-newest-headache.html
Mindfriedo
“…next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?”
The US seems to have chosen to keep Assad in power as the least worst option, as quoted by former US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. See article:
An American-Led Plan To Liquidate Jihadist Groups In Syria
The position of Turkey might not be just the result of their “mind-boggling stupidity” and fanciful “panturkic” dreams. Turkey was a firm supporter of Israel and I think it remained so at all times. Its “anti-Israel” stances were just a smoke screen for the public opinion which is less pro-Israel than the Donmeh leaders. They would have gone all the way in Syria had not been for clear warnings from Russians.
WizOz
@Sokenekos
Interesting. Had never even heard the name untill you put it here.
I found this :
Practical Idealism with a longer title:
The Racist and Supremacist Roots
of the Ideology behind the European Union
and also this from Google Books:
Documents on the History of European Integration: The struggle for European Integration
Knowing nothing further, I can see that through my reading the zionist elitist model is to “dirty the waters” so to speak leaving only themselves as the ruling “white” class to rule in their Globalist Feudel System Model, or so I have read. A rabbi and wife from Wisconsin ( If memory serves) moved to Sweden ? or Finland and are strongly “integrating” through a foundation they have started there. Somewhere I have a link to a video of her speaking on this very subject.
There is, thru NATO states and the UN a push to move the ‘refugees’ being shoved out of the resource rich areas into Europe and beyond. They can’t pull a King Leopold any longer without public outcry and the “humanitarian” card holds so many advantages for them.
On Syria Reuters reported late tonight (Sunday) that possibly Turkey would have to bomb out the “bad militants” for the “good militants” who ‘can’t get any needed supplies and ammo’ whatever that means. Of late I get the feeling the ‘west’ is flying by the seat of their pants some days as the story changes twice in one day, depending on reports.
Erdogan and Gulen ( a west ally ) battle will not just stop. This is a power play and I look for more coming in the future. He may have stiffled it for now, but Gulen has so much CIA clout, and he’s Gladio B also along with helping CIA with all that heroin for years and 600? schools in the Caucauses.
Assad isn’t going anywhere. The Kurdish angle I’m not well versed on, but did read about 3months ago that they had been promised part of iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Bagdad thru a fit over the oil deal and said no way w/ out their approval.
KSA and isreal are openly chummy now and Riyada is to get a new base, but I wouldn’t put anything past isreal honestly. Their safety net is getting holes in it slowly but surely.
Alot of paperwork and evidence has been presented to the UNSC in the last 6 months by Syria and possibly Iran too. Russia also has been vocal about the players in this. Deep down inside, I have a feeling an effort is giong to be made for reparations from KSA and qatar. Could very well be wrong, but I hope for it every day.
karin
Hello all,another fact that nobody noticed and you can aad up is the “”Congress report on 911” with the 28 pages dismissed.
«Two members of Congress are behind a resolution, filed last week, urging Obama to declassify 28 pages of the “Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September, 2001.” The documents were reportedly withheld from the 9/11 Commission, along with millions of other documents and pieces of evidence, that would allegedly unveil information that could lead to a better understanding of who was actually behind the 9/11 terror attacks in Lower-Manhattan, above and beyond the Saudi-national hijackers. Alternative to what the establishment and its media have been wanting people to believe for more than 12 years.
»Democratic Congressman, Stephen F. Lynch, of Massachusetts and Republican Congressman, Walter B. Jones, of North Carolina filed the “bipartisan” resolution,H. Res. 428, with a statement on Lynch’s congressional website that includes a plea to the president for the victims, their families and the American people. Who, according to the congressman, still have yet to be told the truth about what actually happened that day and who was truly responsible.
(«Other al Qaeda funding was traced back to Bandar and his embassy – so much so that by 2004 Riggs Bank of Washington had dropped the Saudis as a client. The next year, as a number of embassy employees popped up in terror probes, Riyadh recalled Bandar…»
They wer horrifid by the content. What I think is now that US governement deliberatly stopped support to Saudis in Syria beacause of what is in these pages.
The sudden influx of keyboard warriors and “Syrian experts” on this site tend to have two things in common and that is that they have little or no knowledge (interest?) of pre-war Syria and a multi-ethnic Syria of different tribes and faiths and the second is that their sources of information are mostly western ones originating from the usual suspects, one parroting the other in a perpetual echo chamber (knowing Arabic does help but reading Arab authors as well). I would agree with Mikhas mostly, especially when it comes to the Kurds. Syrian Kurds,whatever western/Zio sources is trying to spin, see themselves as Kurds, obviously, but also as loyal Syrians to a large extent which is quite unique in this case and are supported and armed by SAA as such. They will keep their special status and have it secured by cooperating with the central government, not Washington,Saudi Arabia and Tel Aviv as their Iraqi brethren, that´s a big difference. They key point is that Syria remains united and that a speedy patch up process is very much going on.
@EVERYBODY:
First, thanks a lot for a very interesting conversation which I am following with great interest!
Second, did you guys see this:
The Islamist State of Iraq and the Levant has killed dozens of rival Islamist rebels in Syria over the last couple of days as the Al-Qaeda-linked group regained most of the territory it lost in the northeastern Raqqa province, according to activists.
Up to 100 rebel fighters from the Nusra Front, another Al-Qaeda-linked group, and Ahrar al-Sham brigade were executed after being captured by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the town of Tel Abiad, on the border with Turkey, Reuters quoted activists as saying.
“About 70 bodies, most shot in the head, were collected and sent to the Raqqa National hospital,” an unnamed activist said. “Many of those executed had been wounded in the fighting. The fact that Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham are ideologically similar to the ISIL did not matter.”
Read the full article here: http://rt.com/news/isil-executes-dozens-islamists-500/
If this is true (can somebody confirm this please?!) then this is fantastic news not only because the reptiles are turning against each other, but because historically that kind of stuff only happens when a party is *really* getting defeated.
I now just hope that the boneheads in the White House will show Congress and the Ziomedia some courage and act as responsible leaders should and invite Iran to participate as a full and equal member of the Geneva II conference. If somebody in DC really believes that a viable deal can be made without Iranian support they are quite mistaken. Conversely, I hope that Lavrov makes a full Iranian participation a condition for the Kremlin’s support. So far, as far as I know, Lavrov is insisting that Iran must be at the negotiating table. I hope that he will remain firm on that.
Cheers!
The Saker
JohnM, thanks for your reply. I would agree that there are differences of opinion between, say, the US State department and the Pentagon – government departments don’t all speak with the same voice. But, I would argue these differences are operational rather than strategic. They are about how best to realise US foreign policy objectives and not about questioning or challenging those objectives.
The news about the killings in Tall Abyad is true.
Also, I’d like to add up thet Mustafa Muslim the leader of the YPG always speak of autonomy inside a syrian state. I’ve never read any text of him about full independence. That’s why local arab tribes, armenians and assyrians are fighting with them, probably.
@saker
You should read this
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/01/12/sharons-death-poses-realpolitik-dilemma/
Also, my cousin just got back from Iraq. He says that the army personal he met were all Shia. But Sammara still remains inaccessible to the Shia. It is a very important shrine and still remains off limits, that says a lot. The Sunnis there are strong.
We had an Iraqi minder (a Sunni) when I had visited during Saddam’s time. Was a very nice guy. You could tell he felt for the Iraqis in the south. Wonder if the Shias now care for the Sunnis in the north.
@EVERYBODY Good news! The Russian TV has just reported that Kerry and Lavrov have just agreed that Iran will be a full and equal invited participant to the Geneva II conference which, iirc, is scheduled for January 22.
RT confirms: http://rt.com/news/syria-ceasefire-prisoner-conference-519/
So does the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25711382
Another victory for Russian diplomacy! Though I will give some (just a little!) credit to Kerry for accepting the inevitable.
The Saker
UPDATE: Senate Majority leader Harry Reid has BLOCKED the latest AIPAC Iran Sanctions bill from coming to a vote.
@Fern
I understand your points. But I’m increasingly wondering if the US has a policy of its own in this region. Their behaviour has been driven by the Zionist and the Gulf Monarchies which did have a policy (I have strong disagreements with their policies but I don’t live in the area).
The US used to have a policy (by this, my meaning is…. what was in it for the US on a positive note versus denial of power/influence to other parties). This policy (such as it was) seems to have started losing coherence in the early to mid 1990s. Since then it seems that the foreign policy in this area is running on automatic pilot with old and arguably corrupted input.
But there seems to be a change in the air. There seems to have been a peak reached by the drivers of this Zionist/KSA pseudo American policy. I think there was some kind of catalyst in and around the Bandar Putin meeting last year. Putin decided to push back hard. This forced some foreign policy wonks in the US government to reevaluate their positions. They are probably still in some state of reevaluation. But they are looking very hard at their current relationships with the Gulf Monarchies for one (and I suspect, Israel), as well as their reflexive backing of rebels who also happen to be terrorists (let’s call a spade a spade here).
There are glimmers of adults who are not ideologues (James Baker types spring to mind) deciding to take control. Whether this means that Obama is growing some balls (or is looking at his legacy) is arguable. I’m sure there are a myriad of factors forcing the US to as the saying goes….. Lead, follow or get the Hell out of the way. If it took Putin to give America a figurative slap on the side of the head, so be it. I concur with The Saker that it’s time that the US grew a pair OF THEIR OWN.
JohnM is making a compelling and if I may say heroic effort but I am nonetheless inclined more to Saker’s scepticism about this.
First of all it’s important to say in support of JohnM’s argument that Assad has said repeatedly in numerous interviews he has given that he is fully willing to sit down and talk and come to arrangements with the “sane” rebels and that this would include changes to the constitution (Syria most certainly does have one) and whatever but that the “crazies” (as Saker rightly refers to them) are quite simply beyond the pale.
I would by the way strongly urge anybody with an interest in the Syrian crisis to read Assad’s interviews. They are exceptionally impressive and show him to be an extremely clever and strong willed man – quite different from the western caricature of him. The crisis in Syria has been the making of him as a leader. He is today a completely different figure from the diffident and unsure person he was at its start.
However I have to say that I have seen nothing to suggest that any part of the rebel political or military leadership is prepared to work with him in the way that JohnM’s theory requires. If internecine fighting between the rebels is now taking place in my opinion that simply reflects the dynamic of the situation on the ground and the struggle for influence between the rebels’ various sponsors and paymasters: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Al Qaeda itself and the US.
For the rest, the agreement for Iran’s participation in Geneva II is a breakthrough. It shows that the more realist faction within the US government is still in the ascendant. Whether it remains so is another matter.
Hypothesis-“Could it be that what we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances and that the next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?”
What I see and do not see:
I don’t see any strategic shift in alliances at all.
I see a perception being pushed forward that allows the US to appear a distant player.
This was the same spin regarding Libya.. it is no more true then as it is now.
The US policy in the region has been for a long time now a total remake of the area.
This plan was more or less announced by Condoleeza Rice? Coinciding very much with Israel’s aspirations.
“the birth pangs of a new middle east” She spoke those words when Israel attacked Lebanon but reiterated them again
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5205164.stm
“But today, meeting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, she once again talked of creating a “new Middle East”.
The NATO plan-
So, a new middle east is planned. One way or another. The so called Arab springs played into that.
In that new middle east the dominating forces will be the despotic kingdoms and Israel
the Sunni/Israeli alliance.
This scenario doesn’t bode well for the Shiite population.
But will guarantee a continuously struggling, subordinated ME.
“The US seems to have chosen to keep Assad in power”
Or so you are supposed to believe. As the least worst option. Yet, just yesterday the ptb’s were saying Assad has got to go
“French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius emphasized that the donors’ group was committed to “putting an end to the present [Assad] regime.”
The only reason the US will allow Assad to stay?
I am thinking here of Milosevic?
He ( Assad) can stay and fight and fight and the US/NATO crew will continue backing the fighters….it serves the war machine.
As to autonomous regions within Syria???
This was the plan from the get go.
The three star flags of the opposition were representative of a balkanized Syria
One part sunni
One part kurdish
On part shiite
Not sure where the christians were going to fit into that concept
3 squabbling provinces.
Egypt is setting itself up to be divided also. Sisi is very actively involved in this
Egypt being very strategic… and linked to that whole new push into Africa
I expect if things get really out of hand, Israel will take the Sinai
Israel is a very big player in Africa
that is my pessimistic outlook
there are glimmers of hope on the horizon of course
Russia has been taking a lead role and making some good moves
It would be good to see China and India get a bit more vocal and even take part in curbing NATO aggression in the area
WizOZ I agree with your take on Turkey- thick as thieves with Israel all along.
While they were playing along… I think they were being set up..
But Erdogan was blinded by his own hubris and didn’t think he would or could be crossed
The thought that he had all those hired killers ensconced in the country didn’t cause him a moment of concern?
When it should have
I know, news junkie that I am thought often about that situation and how perfect it was to turn the tables of Turkey…
An interesting take on the situation:
http://youtu.be/_y8qVISwIN0
@Penny
A hundred bravos for the comment! especially for the analogy Assad – Milosevic.
They need Assad as a scarecrow for the future of the conflict which must be stopped at the moment because they are losing. Whom would they fight against if he’s gone?
@karin
yes indeed, it explains so many things. But apart from the sources you listed, I couldn’t find any other ones either, & I hoped someone else could tell us more about him.
Nevertheless, this is the key:
“Coudenhove-Kalergi’s father was a close friend of Theodor Herzl, the founder of Zionism”
The fact that the book was not allowed for printing speaks volumes. The same is with the Solzenitsin’s “Two hundred years together” – parts of which are nonetheless available at:
http://200yearstogether.wordpress.com/
BTW, I am yet to find an English translation of the Dostoyevsky’s “Jewesh Question” from his “Diary of a Writer” on the net.
Fars is claiming that the FSB has proof Saudi Arabia was behind the Volgograd suicide bombings. Wouldn’t necessarily take this source seriously but disturbing nevertheless.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13921021000728
@Robert: Fars is claiming that the FSB has proof Saudi Arabia was behind the Volgograd suicide bombings. Wouldn’t necessarily take this source seriously but disturbing nevertheless.
Like you, I don’t take FARS seriously any more – they have published too many such rumors and they are turning into the “Iranian Debka”. Besides, *IF* the FSB had any such proof, they would classify that “sky high” and not share it with FARS :-)
@EVERYBODY
I just wanted to let you all know that I am delighted with the interesting and spirited conversations you are having here and please feel free to continue it or to post anything else you deem interesting. I am working on an article on a delicate topic which I nonetheless find most important and which I have decided to address head on. This is not a simple text and I need to work on it for another couple of days. Please forgive the delay and be patient with me. I am sure that once I publish it here there will be plenty of controversy to get another lively conversation going.
Many thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
Sokenekos said…
@Penny
“A hundred bravos for the comment! especially for the analogy Assad – Milosevic.”
Your welcome. And thank you for the hundred bravos- that is very generous.:)
“They need Assad as a scarecrow for the future of the conflict which must be stopped at the moment because they are losing. Whom would they fight against if he’s gone?”
Or conversely when the hired killers finally take out Assad the US and company can step in as part of the war on terror.
The ptsb’s do want Assad out. They are just exercising all options.
They (powers that shouldn’t be) have never suffered from a failing of imagination
Despite there claims.
a nice article on Saudi isolationism
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/01/11/what-pakistan-can-do-for-saudi-arabia/
mindfriedo
The United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is considering reviewing reports of Saudi Arabia’s support to terrorist groups in Iraq with the Security Council, Iranian Al-Alam website reported.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=130139&cid=56&fromval=1&frid=56&seccatid=68&s1=1
Fisk speaking, must watch
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37356.htm
mindfriedo
You forgot France. Damn sure they’ll be fighting alongside the Takfiri-Zionist axis.
@Penny
I am glad that we are in tune about Turkey. I do agree with all you say (its’ not a quid pro quo!). Probably because we take seriously the Oded Yinon plan (with all its variations). The ideea is in fact to create a situation in which Israel can dictate (in the region and in the world at large) without the risk of retaliation. Therefore chaos in ME, exemplary punishment of “anti-semitism” in the rest of the world (see Dieudo), free hand in the exploitation of the world.
I believe also that Assad was slated to have the same fate as Milosevic. “They” need shows in which the villains are “punished”, (Purims). I am sure that “They” are busy concocting plans how to derail any peace agreement and bring again a situation in which to demand a “war crimes” court.
Otherwise I am happy to follow your blog too.
Cheers,
WizOz
@Sokenekos
Try: A Writer’s Diary: 1877-1881 – Page 901 – Google Books Result
books.google.com.au/books?isbn=0810115174
Fyodor Dostoyevsky – 1997 – Biography & Autobiography
1877-1881 Fyodor Dostoyevsky. 2. i. “The Jewish Question” Oh, don’t think that I’m really planning to raise “the Jewish question”! I wrote the title as a joke.
WizOz
@Coudenhove-Kalergi,
A little note (from the Wikipedia article: Richard Nikolaus von Coudenhove-Kalergi) that goes a long way to explain what’s behind the EU facade:
“(Richard)Coudenhove-Kalergi passed his adolescence on Bohemian family estates in Ronsperg, known today as Poběžovice. His father personally taught his two sons Russian and Hungarian and toughened them both physically and morally. He took them on long walks in all weathers, made them sleep on straw mattresses and take cold showers, and taught them to shoot and fence so well that no one would ever dare challenge them. He also took them to Mass every Sunday. On every Good Friday, as the liturgy came to the exhortation “oremus et pro perfidis Judaeis” (“Let us also pray for the faithless Jews”), the old count allegedly rose and walked out of the church in a protest against this supposed expression of antisemitism”. (Wikipedia)
Check also in Jewish Encyclopedia.com the article: Coudenhove, Count Heinrich von. He was the proponent of a “universal religion” which he called “Enochism”, combining Christianity, Judaism and Mahommedanism (what is today called the “Abrahamic” tradition).
Needless almost to say, Richard was a Free Mason. And he married a Jewess, the actress Ida Roland.
Shalom,
WizOz
I thought the reason the Americans were financing the “Al Qaida” element was to keep Iran and Hezbollah busy.
I’m afraid I get a headache just trying to figure out why things are happening these days. :3
@WizOz
many thanks!
Anglo-zionists don’t want peace in Syria. Period. They have been dishonest all along, & are looking only for a break for their hired killers who are losing the fight big time. Here is yet another proof:
“When Lavrov complained that Iran’s exclusion might scuttle any chance for a negotiated end to the Syria war, Kerry bluntly replied that the only acceptable solution to the conflict is on US terms. He demanded Assad’s ouster and the imposition of a “transitional” Syrian government, in which half the seats would be allotted to US-sponsored Islamist “rebels.” Kerry called it “common sense” to exclude Iran, which has not yet agreed to such a neocolonial “transitional” regime.”
More at: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-excludes-iran-from-syria-conference/5364806
As I said in my first comment, Iran is the main target here, & they will not give up on destroying its influence in the ME.
@Penny
Yes, but I am talking about here & now.
A lasting peace in Syria, with Assad in power, is not an option for them because it would mean defeat.
A lasting peace in Syria, without Assad in power, (an open gateway to Iran) is their final goal – which is not achievable at the moment.
A fake peace, without Assad in power, gives them no chance / jastification to resume the unpopular conflict in the future. Of course, provided that Russia stays as firm on this issue as it currently is.
Therefore, only a fake peace, with Assad in power, is what they are currently interested in.
@WizOz
This guy’s (Richard Nikolaus’s) ancestry makes him look like part of the Bene Gesserit breeding program to find the Kwisatz Haderach.
mindfriedo
Hi WizOz
Sometimes I feel a bit alone with some of the commentary I provide at the blog….
Is it too ‘out there’
I don’t know?
Probably because we take seriously the Oded Yinon plan (with all its variations). The ideea is in fact to create a situation in which Israel can dictate (in the region and in the world at large) without the risk of retaliation.
Sounds about right!
t “They” are busy concocting plans how to derail any peace agreement and bring again a situation in which to demand a “war crimes” court.
Can’t disagree with that
In fact haven’t there already been such reports? About taking Assad to the ICC?
Otherwise I am happy to follow your blog too.
Cheers,
And I am most pleased to have a well informed reader
Cheers to you :)
Sokenekos said…
“Therefore, only a fake peace, with Assad in power, is what they are currently interested in.”
Thanks for taking the time to clarify. And I agree 100 percent with you on that ! :)
@Mindfriedo,
Science fiction is constructed on real life facts. Bene Gesserit is a fictionalization of real secret societies which infested Europe since ancient times: Kabbalists, Magicians, Hermetists, Rosicrucians, Masons, Theosophists, Antroposophists, Ariosophists and the list can go on and on and on.
Cheers,
WizOz
One more good article from Finian CUNNINGHAM:
“Kerry’s words and his government’s belated concern to convene the Geneva II conference are doubly contemptible because they are nothing more than barefaced deception to salvage a morass of its making.”
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/01/15/geneva-ii-washington-plan-b-for-regime-change-in-syria.html
@WizOz
Found this on Wikipedia
Herbert also refers to the Kwisatz Haderach as “the one who can be many places at once”. The phrase “Kwisatz Haderach” bears close resemblance to the Hebrew phrase “Kefitzat Haderech” (literally: “Contraction of the Way”), a Kabbalic term related to teleportation. Herbert provides the following definition in Terminology of the Imperium, the glossary of the 1965 novel Dune:
mindfriedo
In Herbert’s Dune novel the Kwisatch Haderach, Paul Atreides, leads a jihad against an evil corporate Empire. If Dune were published in the Arab and Muslim world Islamists everywhere would identify with the Paul and his Fremen desert tribesmen. In Dune the commodity on which the Empire depends is the drug spice. IN the real world it’s oil.
Robert Ford to Syria Opposition: Bandar on Long Vacation, Go to Geneva 2
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=131228&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says the Islamic Republic has solid evidence of the devastating role of the sponsors of Takfiri terrorists in the Middle East.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/01/19/346494/iran-to-reveal-protakfiri-hands-in-region/
“Bandar Bin Sultan is on long vacation in the United States, “because of sickness and psychological fatigue,” Hamade added … “We would like to inform you that there are some changes that will take place in Saudi Arabia next March,” Ford said, noting that these changes will reach Bandar Bin Sultan and Saud al-Faissal.”
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1556797
Commentary: Fifteen men on a dead man’s chest. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tybdRuWbWsg
I was already wondering why one didn’t hear from him anything anymore in the last weeks. So, in the end and when all is said and done, the tail is not wagging the dog.
@anonymous
Perhaps Bandar had a stroke or heart attack because his false flag in Syria didn’t succeed. LOL
@Old auntie
It has occurred to me that there may be far more to this Bandar “sickness”. Cleaning house may be more extensive than I thought and far more “thorough” than is usually done at this level. The question (among many) is….. Who is doing the cleaning?
@Bandar,
I had a hunch, and I wrote something in that vein, that the frolics of Bandar were part of an elaborate scheme to shift the blame for the Syrian mess exclusively on KSA. Maybe that explains the fury of the Ayrabs at the patrons.
I believe that the true explanation is that Assad made huge progresses in tackling the “rebelion” and is in fact unassailable.
Cheers,
WizOz
@ JohnM
Well, I thought of it rather as falling-out among pirates than of house cleaning… But either way, it seems to be intense. Also in Turkey, hopefully more about that later.