Yesterday Putin had a four hour long Q&A on Russian TV. I will not post it here, but one reply by Putin is really interesting. See for yourself:
Q: MARIA SITTEL: More from anxious pensioners. “If the West refuses to purchase gas from Russia, how will that affect people’s well-being, especially that of pensioners?” – Lyudmila Budarina, Tambov Region.
A: VLADIMIR PUTIN: I have to say that oil and gas revenues make up a large part of the Russian budget revenue. This is a serious component for us in addressing economic development, budget funding for our development programmes and, of course, and meeting of our social commitments to our citizens.
I’ll tell you what. I am not sure that I’ll get the figures right, but, if my memory serves me correctly, the bulk of oil and gas revenue comes not from gas but from oil. In terms of the dollar equivalent, our oil revenues last year amounted to $191-194 billion and gas revenues to about $28 billion. See the difference? 191 from oil and 28 from gas.
Oil is sold on world markets. Is there any way to do us harm? One may try. But what would be the result for those who would attempt to do it? First of all, how would this be done? Of all the countries in the world, only Saudi Arabia has the real potential to increase production and thus bring down world prices. Saudi Arabia’s budget assumes a price of $85-$90 per thousand cubic metres.
Q: KIRILL KLEYMENOV: President Obama has already visited them.
A: VLADIMIR PUTIN: I’m sorry, I meant oil, not gas. The budget assumes a price of $85-$90 per barrel, and our budget, I think, $90. So, if one goes below $85, Saudi Arabia will be on the losing end and have problems. For us a drop from $90 to $85 is not critical. That is first.
Second, we are on very good terms with Saudi Arabia. We may, for example, differ in terms of our views on Syria, but we practically have identical positions on the development of the situation in Egypt. There are many other things where we see eye-to-eye.
I have great respect for the custodian of the two Muslim shrines, the King of Saudi Arabia. He is a very clever and balanced man. I don’t think that our Saudi friends would make any abrupt changes to harm themselves and the Russian economy.
Furthermore, they are members of OPEC, where we have many supporters. It is not that they have sympathy for us, but that they have their own economic interests and sharply reducing production – which can only be done in a manner agreed upon within OPEC – is a fairly complicated business.
Finally, in the United States, which is developing shale gas and shale oil production, production costs are very high. These are expensive projects. If world prices tumble, these projects may turn out to be unprofitable, loss-making and the nascent industry may simply die.
And one last point. Oil is priced and traded in the world in dollars. If prices fall, demand for dollars will plummet and the dollar will start losing its significance as a world currency. There are very many factors involved. The wish to bite us is there, but the opportunities are limited. That said, some damage can be caused.
Now about gas. We sell gas by pipeline (most of our sales are by pipeline) mainly to the European countries that depend on Russian supplies to cover about 30-35, 34 percent of their needs. Can they stop buying Russian gas altogether? I don’t think that this is possible.
Some of our neighbours, very good neighbours with which we have very sound relations, such as, for example, Finland…Finland gets 90 percent of its gas from Russia. Some countries that used to be called People’s Democracies in Eastern Europe depend on Russian gas if not for 90 percent, then for 60, 50 or 70 percent of their needs.
Can supplies be stopped altogether? I think that this is totally unrealistic. But one can do this at one’s own cost, by hurting oneself. However, I cannot imagine such a situation. Therefore, of course, everyone is keen on diversifying their sources of supplies. Europe is talking about greater independence from Russia as a supplier, and similarly we are beginning to talk and act to become less dependent on our consumers.
However, so far, there is a measure of balance between consumers and suppliers. The only problem is transit countries. And the most dangerous part, of course, is transit via Ukraine with which we have tremendous difficulties in agreeing on energy problems. But I hope that we will be able to bring things back to normal, considering the contracts that have been signed and are functioning.
MARIA SITTEL: Thank you.
——-
Also, FYI, a reader sent me this chart from Zerohedge:
Crazy Ivan says….
“Money makes
the world go round
the world go round
the world go round…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIAXG_QcQNU
Does it mean who “cares” of your ass as long as money flows to your pocket?
So much for THE only leader in the world who “dared” to stop the proverbial relentless encroachment of global Western hegemony – where so much people put trust in him lately as the only Savior of th World from ZioNazi slavery…
Sigh.
@Crazy Ivan: I would be grateful if, in order to be better understood, you tried following the following method: begin by listing relevant facts, categorize them, then provide a logical analysis of these facts and then present a conclusion based on your analysis. If you cannot, I would advise you to stop posting until you acquire these skills because right now your comments contribute nothing besides making you look rather confused.
Good luck and kind regards,
The Saker
Crazy Ivan says…
OK. You put your facts of the “Tetragramaton” (from Equilibrium movie) – Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia and OPEC in the context of the price of oil.
“Money works the world go round” for Mr Putin too. People of Syria? F***’em. Our Saudi friends f**k em, we can’t be worse.
I told you earlier – your analyses do not pay attention to people. Probably it’s too “complicated” and “unprofessional”.
In the end it will be easier for Russia to diversify its energy customer base than for the EU to diversify its suppliers. Russia and the EU trade russian energy for european credits. Credits are much easier to find elsewhere.
There’s a lock-in effect with the transit system though, but that swings both ways.
Russia can construct additional pipelines to new customers. The EU could construct… what? LNG-import facilities? Wouldn’t be enough and would raise prices immensly. Pipeline to Quatar? Would that pipeline transit very stable Iraq, very stable Syria or very friendly Iran?
the second graph looks a lot worse for russia, though: gdp between january and now tanking by over one percent.
i am not an economist, but that must hurt the average russian citizen.
Re stock diagramme
“Lies, damned lies, and statistics”
Mark Twain
The world faces what punters here call a ‘quadrella’ of disasters. Ecological collapse, most notably anthropogenic climate destabilisation and ocean acidification, and myriad other lesser crises. Resource depletion principally cheap energy, topsoil, fresh water, phosphate etc. Economic implosion as neo-liberal capitalism collapses under the weight of unpayable debt and record inequality of income and wealth, caused by the utterly insatiable greed of the parasite caste who own and control Western politics. And last but not least, geo-political discord caused by the ‘Chosen People’ of the Western elites utterly refusing to share power with mere ‘Asiatics’ like the Chinese, or other untermenschen like Indians, Brazilians, Russians, Africans ie the rest of humanity. These crises are all synergistic and can only be addressed by global co-operation based on mutual respect and justice for all, both conditions that Western elites never have and never will acknowledge let alone accept. Thus the brutish aggression and hysterical propaganda we see every day now, destroying one country after another, is a final conflict for humanity. If the malevolent Western elites prevail, humanity will disappear this century. If humanity does it will only be by putting war and domination behind us forever.
The world faces what punters here call a ‘quadrella’ of disasters. Ecological collapse, most notably anthropogenic climate destabilisation and ocean acidification, and myriad other lesser crises. Resource depletion principally cheap energy, topsoil, fresh water, phosphate etc. Economic implosion as neo-liberal capitalism collapses under the weight of unpayable debt and record inequality of income and wealth, caused by the utterly insatiable greed of the parasite caste who own and control Western politics. And last but not least, geo-political discord caused by the ‘Chosen People’ of the Western elites utterly refusing to share power with mere ‘Asiatics’ like the Chinese, or other untermenschen like Indians, Brazilians, Russians, Africans ie the rest of humanity. These crises are all synergistic and can only be addressed by global co-operation based on mutual respect and justice for all, both conditions that Western elites never have and never will acknowledge let alone accept. Thus the brutish aggression and hysterical propaganda we see every day now, destroying one country after another, is a final conflict for humanity. If the malevolent Western elites prevail, humanity will disappear this century. If humanity does it will only be by putting war and domination behind us forever.
Putin’s response here (as elsewhere) is refreshingly direct, and free of the spinning, legalistic bs that permeates political dialogue (or what passes for dialogue) here in the UK.
Many of us respect the man, and prefer him to the moral pygmies and carpet-baggers currently on offer in the West.
It has been terrible to witness the extinguishing of the light of freedom in the USA. Putin appears, in his own way, to be re-kindling that flame.
CIA Terror Chuef Pulls Rank in Kiev by Finian Cunningham:
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/april/16/cia-terror-chief-pulls-rank-in-kiev.aspx
“There could hardly be an American official more sinister than CIA director John Brennan, yet when his mysterious visit to Kiev at the weekend is exposed in various news media the White House responded with vacuous naiveté and as if Russia is foolishly over-reacting.”
“John O. Brennan – Obama’s right-hand man for state terrorism?”
Saker,
I have this question to you.
Mr. Putin is going to China for a trillion dollar gas deal next month.
Will Russia and China decide to transact oil and gas without using dollar ?
Would that be possible ?
How would that be from a PetroDollar perspective ?
I would love your answer on this one.
I would also love to know your views on the Eurasian project and whether it would be feasible ?
Take care
Debanjan
Another good analysis of the Geneva document:
http://darussophile.com/2014/04/deconstructing-the-result-of-the-four-party-talks/
perhaps..it is Frustration..hmm.
kind regards.
Darussophile’s piece is quite good. It would be nice if someone in the Obama administration took the time to read analyses like his or The Saker’s instead of depending on rot produced by their own private echo chamber. And no, the NSA doesn’t count: if any material *is* actually read, just consider who’d be reading it.
“The US State Department, via spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki, said that reports of CIA Director John Brennan telling regime changers in Kiev to “conduct tactical operations” – or an “anti-terrorist” offensive – in eastern Ukraine are “completely false”. This means Brennan did issue his marching orders. And by now the “anti-terrorist” campaign – with its nice little Dubya rhetorical touch – has degenerated into farce.”
Pepe Escobar on ATol
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170414.html
Always nice to read.
@ Debanjan, some info-bits:
Russland und China planen Tiefseehafen vor der Krim
… Die Pläne über einen Tiefseehafen im Schwarzen Meer sollen die Krim zu einem festen Bestandteil eines „neuen Handelskorridors zwischen Asien und Europa“ machen. Peking und Moskau arbeiten mit Hochdruck an diesem „Wirtschaftsgürtel der großen Seidenstraße“, so der Botschafter weiter. Russland habe bereits drei Milliarden Dollar in die Realisierung des Projekts investiert.
Das Großprojekt „Power of Siberia“ soll nach seiner Fertigstellung im Jahr 2019 etwa 60 Milliarden Kubikmeter Gas pro Jahr an die östlichen Regionen Russlands transportieren. Rund 38 Milliarden Kubikmeter pro Jahr sollen davon an China geliefert werden (mehr hier).
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2014/04/09/russland-und-china-schliessen-historisches-gas-abkommen/
„Ein wichtiges Thema, das noch diskutiert werden muss, ist der Preis. Gazprom und CNPC verhandeln darüber und ihre Positionen nähern sich allmählich an“, so Chizhov.
… „Die Eurasische Wirtschaftsunion wird am 1. Januar 2015 gestartet, unabhängig von der Situation in der Ukraine oder anderer Länder, die nicht an diesem Integrationsprozess beteiligt sind. Die Verhandlungen mit Armenien werden bald abgeschlossen sein und die Verhandlungen mit Kirgisistan machen Fortschritte“, so Chizhov. Neben Kirgisistan und Armenien sollen auch Weißrussland und Kasachstan teil der Eurasischen Union werden.
Russland und China versuchen derzeit, sich auf mehreren Ebenen von den USA unabhängig zu machen. Beide Länder stoßen seit Monaten US-Staatsanleihen im großen Stil ab (hier).
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2014/04/16/belgien-kauft-rekord-summe-us-staatsanleihen/
Dafür investieren China und Russland vermehrt in Gold (hier).
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2014/04/15/russland-und-china-investieren-massiv-in-gold-und-kupfer/
The links in the links are interesting too.
I had a polish customer today. She said she was a teacher.
I started to ask her about the Ukraine, Russia, and Putin. She said that people in the Ukraine are poor even though the country is rich. She said they lack leaders. And she did not comment when I asked her about the right sector and the new nazis.
I asked if she knew that the Ukraine had been a part of her country. She said no it was part of Russia, then she recalled that it had been a part of Poland too.
I asked her about Putin. I asked if she thought he was smart. She said I would not say smart, she thought he was more of a dictator.
I wanted to pump her for more, but she was in a hurry. She politely asked me to let her shop for earrings when I kept asking for something on Putin.
Mindfriedo
Hi Saker. A couple of worrisome statements about Russia recently from our “leader of the free world”:
Apr. 16: “They’re not interested in any kind of military confrontation with us, understanding that our conventional forces are significantly superior to the Russians.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/16/obama-russia-doesnt-want-any-kind-of-military-confrontation-with-us/ .
Mar. 25: President Obama disputed the idea that Russia is the United States’ No. 1 geopolitical foe, dismissing Moscow as a “regional power” and arguing that the invasion of Crimea “indicates less influence, not more.” http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-obama-russia-just-a-regional-power-20140325,0,3490425,print.story .
Together with his “Putin slouching” remark at the G8 last summer, they reflect an almost breathtaking hubris. Part no doubt is due to the 2nd-term assertiveness all presidencies evince until taken down by the mid-terms. Part no doubt is due to the constant, unmerited adulation surrounding him since he emerged on the political scene, surrounded by sycophants in the press and now the White House. But the worrisome part is that he may really believe his own delusions of grandeur, and embark on some kind of military adventure in the Ukraine. The only historical parallel that comes to mind is Napoleon III’s certainty in 1870 that France was militarily superior to Prussia. But then Prussia secretly wanted war, while Russia, I assume, wants to avoid it.
Old auntie 14:39,
Wow. That certainly explains part of our panic. Lisbon-Vladivostock indeed. And our “pivot” is being conducted with the approximate grace of a half–sunken aircraft carrier firing away at the lifeboats.
Saker, this cartoon reveals a lot about indoctrination, feelings, fears and prejudice in the Netherlands: The title is: Relax, no war will happen…
http://www.joop.nl/opinies/detail/artikel/26509_nee_hoor_er_komt_geen_oorlog/
The little man is the center right prime minister Rutte: it shows adequately the incompetence and his vazal status.
The bear shows the fearmongering (and some true fear), as well as some prejudice (Napoleon hat, wodka bottle, the hammer and sickle).
Although I despise this Rutte, for one time he did something right: Germany and Holland still have some real industry and trade infrastructure.
(his words here, from a snippet of TV speech):….When smart powers, and smart people act smart….)
He means that his electorate, the would be Dutch mini-olicharchs and CEOs are vehemently opposed to anything but token sanctions. In Germany this opposition is much more vocal from much larger and more important industry.
The cartoonist is obviously against it. (even if a person is an asshole, he still can be right sometimes, not?)
I am quite left wing and very liberal myself, but nowadays I sometimes feel ashamed to even call myself that!
Greetings Mr Saker , I very much appreciate your blog
However what mr Putin said on the US dollar is a propaganda stunt .. Just an example : Do you remember in august 2008 ( on the eve of the Georgians’ tragicomic invasion of Ossetia ) the Brent price was 147 $ yet the US dollar was at its lowest trade-weighted value in decades ?
Similarly in October 2008 the US dollar rallied ( since it is a safe asset ) and the Brent price fell off a cliff..
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&recession_bars=on&log_scales=&bgcolor=%23e1e9f0&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&fo=verdana&ts=12&tts=12&txtcolor=%23444444&drp=0&cosd=2001-05-18%2C2001-05-18&coed=2014-04-11%2C2014-04-11&width=670&height=445&stacking=&range=Custom&mode=fred&id=DCOILBRENTEU%2CDTWEXM&transformation=lin&nd=&ost=-99999&oet=99999&scale=left&line_color=%234572a7&line_style=solid&lw=2&mark_type=&mw=3&mma=0&fml=a&fgst=lin&fq=Daily&fam=avg&vintage_date=&revision_date=
The Absurdity of US Natural Gas Exports
Posted on March 31, 2014 by Gail Tverberg
Quiz:
1. How much natural gas is the United States currently extracting?
(a) Barely enough to meet its own needs
(b) Enough to allow lots of exports
(c) Enough to allow a bit of exports
(d) The United States is a natural gas importer
Answer: (d) The United States is a natural gas importer, and has been for many years. The EIA is forecasting that by 2017, we will finally be able to meet our own natural gas needs.
read more http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/03/31/the-absurdity-of-us-natural-gas-exports/
Ivanov, don’t worry about Obama. He does exactly what his Zionist owners demand. Just read ‘Obama and the Jews’, in the Chicago Jewish News of October 24, 2008, to see how they have controlled him since college. and how Abner Mikvah, a former judge, Congressman and Clinton regime insider insists that he is not the ‘first black’ President, but, in fact, the ‘first Jewish President’ of the USA. And then look at the personnel of his Administration, particularly the economic positions, and pinch yourself to remind yourself that Jews are but 2% of the US population.
How many western leaders do this sort of thing? I know some western politicians do things like this, such as Galloway, but not leaders of countries. I doubt any western leaders would be able to even answer the sort of questions asked without a large crew coaching them via teleprompter. Western leaders tend to be the political equivalent of actors in television adverts. They read the lines other prepare for them, but have little more than basic knowledge of what it is they are reading.
вот так
4 hours is pretty impressive!!
PMQ’s aint all that.